After Paris: Climate Challenge Revisited

ISAP 2016,Yokohama, 12 July 2016

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK);Chair, German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)

The Blue Marble: New NASA Satellite Image

Image taken by NASA space probe "Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter" on 12 October 2015

The Holocene: From Glacial Chaos to Climate Paradise

Age (kyr before present)

Time Series Source: Johan Rockström,Stockholm Resilience Centre

HoloceneTobaEruption

Glacial Maximum

Holocene

Present

Future

The Greenhouse Effect

Why Does the Climate Change at All? Longer-Term Factors:

Milankovic Cycles

M. Milankovic S. ArrheniusSource: Global Warming Art

18961941

· /

Past

critical CO2 functionobserved CO2 concentration (past)

andmodeled for zero emissions (future)

Critical CO2 Concentration-Insolation Function

Ganopolski, A., Winkelmann, R., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2016): Critical insolation‐CO2 relation fordiagnosing past and future glacial inception. Nature 

Cumulative human carbon dioxide emissions [Mt C]

0.010.001 0.1 1 10010 1000

Data Source: CDIAC 2016 (Andres, R.J., T.A. Boden, and G. Marland. 2016) Animation: PIK 2016Bathymetry: NASA, Earth Observatory

The C-Story of Human Civilization

‐0.6

‐0.4

‐0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Global Temperature since 1880

El Niño

Pinatubo

Data source: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

La Niña

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y

Year

GISTEMP-Data in 12-month running mean until incl. May 2016

??

El Niño

Increased Ocurrence of Extreme El Niño and La NiñaEvents Under Greenhouse Warming

Cali et al., 2015

Looming Risks: Tipping Elements in the Earth System

PIK, after Lenton et al. 2008

AmazonRainforest

Arctic Sea Ice

BorealForest

AtlanticThermohaline

Circulation

BorealForest

YedomaPermafrost

IndianSummerMonsoon

West AfricanMonsoon Tropical

Coral Reefs

Marine BiologicalCarbon Pump?

West AntarcticIce Sheet

GreenlandIce Sheet

Dust SourceShut-down?

Sahara Greening?Sahel Drying?

Cryosphere Entities

Biosphere ComponentsCirculation Patterns

Population Density [persons per km²]

MethaneClathrates

East AntarcticGlaciers?

MethaneClathrates

El Niño-Southern Oscillation

SW NorthAmerica?

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Meandering of the Jetstream

Animation

RussianHeat Wave

Pakistan Flooding

Source: bbc.co.uk

2010

2010

Synchronicity of Extreme Events

Normal: July1980

Extreme: May 2013

Northwards Southwards

Wind speed along the lines of longitude(m/s)

Data source: PIK/Stefan Rahmstorf; Illustration: Focus 2013, No. 28/13

Coumou et al. 2014

Num

bero

fres

onan

cem

onth

s

Quasi-Resonance of Planetary Waves

Irreversible Loss of Greenland Ice-Sheet Could Start with 1.6°C Temperature Rise Relative to Preindustrial

Robinson et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change

Equilibrium states of the GIS 

Transient GIS evolution

The Die is Cast!

Ice‐Flow SpeedAcceleration of Ice Flow

ca. 1.2 and 3.3 m Sea‐Level Equivalent, resp.

Winkelmann et al., Science Advances 2015

Sea Level Commitment from Antarctic Ice Loss

Limiting global 

warming “well 

below” 

2 degrees Celsius

Net‐zero emissions       

of greenhouse gases by 

mid‐21st century

National emission targets 

regularly reviewed and 

tightened

Developed

countries provide

100 billion USD 

per year between

2020‐2025

The Paris Agreement

Bildqu

elle: h

ttps://w

ww.wmo.int/med

ia/

Schellnhuber et al. , Nature Climate Change, 2016

Tipping Points Related to 2°C-Guardrail

Likelihood of Exceeding the 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming Limits

Schellnhuber et al. , Nature Climate Change, 2016

WGBU 2011

„Die Große Transformation“

WBGU Vision of Global Energy Revolution

Source: WBGU 2011

Development of the primary energy demand between 1970 and 2050

Down the Carbon Staircase!?

Renewables are expected to replace nuclear, later fossil energy.

“Energiewende“ in Germany

Quellen: Bundesregierung; Bundesumweltministerium; Umweltbundesamt; Statistisches Bundesamt; Statistische Landesämter; Bundesanstalt fürGeowissenschaften und Rohstoffe; Deutsche Energie-Agentur(dena); eigene Berechnungen Aktualisierung 2016 durch PIK nach Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat), Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen FAZ, June 2011; updated 2016

Share of energy sources in gross power generation in Germany (in percent)

14,1

30,0

23,8

18,1

9,14,9

Year 2013Year 2010Year 2015

Nuclear

LigniteRenewables

Natural Gas

Others

Hard Coal

Future share of renewables –concept of the Federal Government, 2010

31,1

3,6

27,725,6

6,5

30,8

22,2

16,6

23,0

14,1

18,5

5,65,5

Renewable Power Deployment Has (Over)-Delivered

Adapted from BDEW (2014)

2011 renewable energy targets (power sector) 

2013 corridor 

historic deployment

33%

• Share of renewables increased by 25 percentage points in 13 years (33% in 2015)• Main driver: Feed‐in tariff (EEG) since 2000• High costs a concern, but reductions expected from auctioning from 2017 on

8%

Share or re

newable in

 pow

er con

sumption [%

]

Renewable Power Mix in Detail

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Share in pow

er con

sumption [%

]

Other

Biomass

Solar PV

Wind

Hydro

• Considerable increase in particular of fluctuating renewables (solar, wind)

• Integration a concern, but not yet a challenge

Source: BMWi (2016)

Not on Track With Climate Targets

749 [‐40%]

562[‐55%]

0

200

400

600

800

1000

120020

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

14

2020

2030

GHG Emissions [Mt] Targets [Mt]

• According to Government projections (BMUB 2014) GHG emission reduction in 2020 only ~33% (target: ‐40% / 740 Mt)

• Even larger gap for 2030 target (‐55% / 562 Mt)

Trend

Coal Phase-Out in Response?

• Coal‐phase out until 2040 proposed to reduce GHG emissions in power sector

• Part of proposed “catalog of climate measures for 2050”, but unclear if endorsed by Government

Source: Agora Energiewende (2015)

„The Great Transformation“, Reloaded 2016

I-Squaring the Climate Circle

Innovation

Investment

(MultifoldingPertinentRD&D)

Infrastructure

Inheritance(Paying backExternalityDebts)

(Carbon ‐neutral/negativeConstruction)

(National TransformationFunds)

1.5 – 2°C

· /

Past

critical CO2 functionobserved CO2 concentration (past)

andmodeled for zero emissions (future)

Critical CO2 Concentration-Insolation Function

Ganopolski, A., Winkelmann, R., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2016): Critical insolation‐CO2 relation fordiagnosing past and future glacial inception. Nature 

Ganopolski, A., Winkelmann, R., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2016): Critical insolation‐CO2 relation fordiagnosing past and future glacial inception. Nature 

Past

critical CO2 functionobserved CO2 concentration (past)

andmodeled for zero emissions (future)

· /

Anthropogenic carbon injection so far: ≈ 500 Gt

1500 GtC1000 GtC

500 GtC0 GtC

0 100 ka AP

Critical CO2 Concentration-Insolation Function

Summer Heat ExtremesShift Regions into New Climate Regimes

“Unusual“3‐sigma events(1 in 740 years)

“Unprecedented“ 5‐sigma events

(1 in > 3 mio years)

Paris‐consensus Business‐as‐usual

Data source: ISI‐MIP database (Warszawski et al. 2014, PNAS)

(%)

(%)

Heat Records Could Make Gulf Region Uninhabitable