After Paris: Climate Challenge RevisitedClimate Challenge Revisited ISAP 2016, Yokohama, 12 July...
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After Paris: Climate Challenge Revisited ISAP 2016, Yokohama, 12 July 2016 Hans Joachim Schellnhuber Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK); Chair, German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
Transcript of After Paris: Climate Challenge RevisitedClimate Challenge Revisited ISAP 2016, Yokohama, 12 July...
After Paris: Climate Challenge Revisited
ISAP 2016,Yokohama, 12 July 2016
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK);Chair, German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
The Blue Marble: New NASA Satellite Image
Image taken by NASA space probe "Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter" on 12 October 2015
The Holocene: From Glacial Chaos to Climate Paradise
Age (kyr before present)
Time Series Source: Johan Rockström,Stockholm Resilience Centre
HoloceneTobaEruption
Glacial Maximum
Holocene
Present
Future
The Greenhouse Effect
Why Does the Climate Change at All? Longer-Term Factors:
Milankovic Cycles
M. Milankovic S. ArrheniusSource: Global Warming Art
18961941
· /
Past
critical CO2 functionobserved CO2 concentration (past)
andmodeled for zero emissions (future)
Critical CO2 Concentration-Insolation Function
Ganopolski, A., Winkelmann, R., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2016): Critical insolation‐CO2 relation fordiagnosing past and future glacial inception. Nature
Cumulative human carbon dioxide emissions [Mt C]
0.010.001 0.1 1 10010 1000
Data Source: CDIAC 2016 (Andres, R.J., T.A. Boden, and G. Marland. 2016) Animation: PIK 2016Bathymetry: NASA, Earth Observatory
The C-Story of Human Civilization
‐0.6
‐0.4
‐0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Global Temperature since 1880
El Niño
Pinatubo
Data source: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
La Niña
Tem
pera
ture
Ano
mal
y
Year
GISTEMP-Data in 12-month running mean until incl. May 2016
??
El Niño
Increased Ocurrence of Extreme El Niño and La NiñaEvents Under Greenhouse Warming
Cali et al., 2015
Looming Risks: Tipping Elements in the Earth System
PIK, after Lenton et al. 2008
AmazonRainforest
Arctic Sea Ice
BorealForest
AtlanticThermohaline
Circulation
BorealForest
YedomaPermafrost
IndianSummerMonsoon
West AfricanMonsoon Tropical
Coral Reefs
Marine BiologicalCarbon Pump?
West AntarcticIce Sheet
GreenlandIce Sheet
Dust SourceShut-down?
Sahara Greening?Sahel Drying?
Cryosphere Entities
Biosphere ComponentsCirculation Patterns
Population Density [persons per km²]
MethaneClathrates
East AntarcticGlaciers?
MethaneClathrates
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
SW NorthAmerica?
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Meandering of the Jetstream
Animation
RussianHeat Wave
Pakistan Flooding
Source: bbc.co.uk
2010
2010
Synchronicity of Extreme Events
Normal: July1980
Extreme: May 2013
Northwards Southwards
Wind speed along the lines of longitude(m/s)
Data source: PIK/Stefan Rahmstorf; Illustration: Focus 2013, No. 28/13
Coumou et al. 2014
Num
bero
fres
onan
cem
onth
s
Quasi-Resonance of Planetary Waves
Irreversible Loss of Greenland Ice-Sheet Could Start with 1.6°C Temperature Rise Relative to Preindustrial
Robinson et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change
Equilibrium states of the GIS
Transient GIS evolution
The Die is Cast!
Ice‐Flow SpeedAcceleration of Ice Flow
ca. 1.2 and 3.3 m Sea‐Level Equivalent, resp.
Winkelmann et al., Science Advances 2015
Sea Level Commitment from Antarctic Ice Loss
Limiting global
warming “well
below”
2 degrees Celsius
Net‐zero emissions
of greenhouse gases by
mid‐21st century
National emission targets
regularly reviewed and
tightened
Developed
countries provide
100 billion USD
per year between
2020‐2025
The Paris Agreement
Bildqu
elle: h
ttps://w
ww.wmo.int/med
ia/
Schellnhuber et al. , Nature Climate Change, 2016
Tipping Points Related to 2°C-Guardrail
Likelihood of Exceeding the 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming Limits
Schellnhuber et al. , Nature Climate Change, 2016
WGBU 2011
„Die Große Transformation“
WBGU Vision of Global Energy Revolution
Source: WBGU 2011
Development of the primary energy demand between 1970 and 2050
Down the Carbon Staircase!?
Renewables are expected to replace nuclear, later fossil energy.
“Energiewende“ in Germany
Quellen: Bundesregierung; Bundesumweltministerium; Umweltbundesamt; Statistisches Bundesamt; Statistische Landesämter; Bundesanstalt fürGeowissenschaften und Rohstoffe; Deutsche Energie-Agentur(dena); eigene Berechnungen Aktualisierung 2016 durch PIK nach Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat), Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen FAZ, June 2011; updated 2016
Share of energy sources in gross power generation in Germany (in percent)
14,1
30,0
23,8
18,1
9,14,9
Year 2013Year 2010Year 2015
Nuclear
LigniteRenewables
Natural Gas
Others
Hard Coal
Future share of renewables –concept of the Federal Government, 2010
31,1
3,6
27,725,6
6,5
30,8
22,2
16,6
23,0
14,1
18,5
5,65,5
Renewable Power Deployment Has (Over)-Delivered
Adapted from BDEW (2014)
2011 renewable energy targets (power sector)
2013 corridor
historic deployment
33%
• Share of renewables increased by 25 percentage points in 13 years (33% in 2015)• Main driver: Feed‐in tariff (EEG) since 2000• High costs a concern, but reductions expected from auctioning from 2017 on
8%
Share or re
newable in
pow
er con
sumption [%
]
Renewable Power Mix in Detail
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Share in pow
er con
sumption [%
]
Other
Biomass
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
• Considerable increase in particular of fluctuating renewables (solar, wind)
• Integration a concern, but not yet a challenge
Source: BMWi (2016)
Not on Track With Climate Targets
749 [‐40%]
562[‐55%]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
120020
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
14
2020
2030
GHG Emissions [Mt] Targets [Mt]
• According to Government projections (BMUB 2014) GHG emission reduction in 2020 only ~33% (target: ‐40% / 740 Mt)
• Even larger gap for 2030 target (‐55% / 562 Mt)
Trend
Coal Phase-Out in Response?
• Coal‐phase out until 2040 proposed to reduce GHG emissions in power sector
• Part of proposed “catalog of climate measures for 2050”, but unclear if endorsed by Government
Source: Agora Energiewende (2015)
„The Great Transformation“, Reloaded 2016
I-Squaring the Climate Circle
Innovation
Investment
(MultifoldingPertinentRD&D)
Infrastructure
Inheritance(Paying backExternalityDebts)
(Carbon ‐neutral/negativeConstruction)
(National TransformationFunds)
1.5 – 2°C
· /
Past
critical CO2 functionobserved CO2 concentration (past)
andmodeled for zero emissions (future)
Critical CO2 Concentration-Insolation Function
Ganopolski, A., Winkelmann, R., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2016): Critical insolation‐CO2 relation fordiagnosing past and future glacial inception. Nature
Ganopolski, A., Winkelmann, R., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2016): Critical insolation‐CO2 relation fordiagnosing past and future glacial inception. Nature
Past
critical CO2 functionobserved CO2 concentration (past)
andmodeled for zero emissions (future)
· /
Anthropogenic carbon injection so far: ≈ 500 Gt
1500 GtC1000 GtC
500 GtC0 GtC
0 100 ka AP
Critical CO2 Concentration-Insolation Function
Summer Heat ExtremesShift Regions into New Climate Regimes
“Unusual“3‐sigma events(1 in 740 years)
“Unprecedented“ 5‐sigma events
(1 in > 3 mio years)
Paris‐consensus Business‐as‐usual
Data source: ISI‐MIP database (Warszawski et al. 2014, PNAS)
(%)
(%)
Heat Records Could Make Gulf Region Uninhabitable
