Adding an Analytic Process to CABY Goals, Objectives, Strategies,

and Actions

CABY Planning MeetingSept 6 2006David Yates and David Purkey

Recall why we are here and what we will need from you

• Provide modeling support for the CABY• WEAP- A framework for water resource and

aquatic ecosystem evaluation that can include climate change

• Need to know how to prioritize our efforts to address your questions

• Acquisition of data (times series of inflows, reservoir releases/levels, operational logic, service area, info on PG&E system)

Proposed timeline

Strategies to Analyze

Data and Sources

WEAP- CABY Disaggregation

WEAP- CABY Infrastructure

Calibration and Results

Summarize and Recommend

J anSep Oct Nov Dec

Integrated Water Resource Management

• Integrated watershed hydrology and water planning model

• GIS-based, graphical drag & drop interface.

• Physical simulation of water demands and supplies.

• Additional simulation modeling: user-created variables and modeling equations.

• Scenario management capabilities.

• Seamless watershed hydrology, water quality and financial modules

• Developed by the SEI-US

What we have done so far.

WEAP Relevancy to CABY Goals, Objectives, and

Strategies• Water Supply Working Group• Water Quality Working Group• Environmental and Habitat Protection

Model cannot directly satisfy stated goals and objectives

Can assess potential effectiveness of individual strategies and actions

Can identify potential synergies or tradeoffs between strategies and actions

An Analytical Engine to evaluate GOSAs

A SF American, EID Example

GOSA- Goals

Achieve sustainable surface and ground water supplies.

Provide multiple benefits from management of water resources, diversions and infrastructure.

GOSA- Objectives

1. Improve storage capacity.7. Manage recreation to minimize impacts

to watershed resources.11. Manage water infrastructure to

optimize in-stream temperatures.12. Investigate effects of drought and

climate change and need for water management strategies.

GOSA- Strategies and Actions

Monitoring• Conduct research and modeling to

describe and understand watershed dynamics and promote integrated and sustainable water management practices.

• Monitor temperature and water quality impacts of flow releases on native fisheries.

GOSA- Strategies and Actions

Land Use Coordination• Explore reservoir management for

reservoir and downstream water temperature improvements.

• Develop and implement strategies for river and infrastructure management that provide environmental and recreational benefits, especially in critically dry years.

GOSA- Strategies and Actions

Water Supply Reliability• Assess and develop new storage

opportunities to meet long-term water needs.

• Develop a regional drought plan.• Perform water availability and

demand analysis (need to define reliability).

GOSA- Strategies and Actions

Environmental Restoration and Preservation• Design and implement strategies that benefit

native fish and aquatic biota populations.

Climate Change• Develop a CABY-wide adaptive management

plan.• Update drought management plans to

incorporate climate change scenarios.

A (contrived) EID GOSA

Strategies & Action• Create adaptable IFR’s throughout Project 184 to

maintain “healthy” flows

• Create “Pulse” flows requirements below Reservoirs to mimic spring peak flows

• Increase forebay storage and EID canal capacity to increase safe yield from hydropower facility

• A Critical EID Question: “Will we be able to meet our IFR’s and still divert enough water to meet demands and generate hydro revenue”?

Qualitative Quantitative

• Reservoir Mngmt to improve downstream water temperature

• Infrastructure Mngmt to provide Rec and ecosystem benefits

• Availability and Demand Analsysis

Qualitative Quantitative

• Reservoir Mngmt to improve downstream water temperature

• Infrastructure Mngmt to provide Rec and ecosystem benefits

• Availability and Demand Analsysis

EID’s Project 184• Condition 31:

– Detailed Instream flow requirements by season and water year

• Condition 52:– Detailed lake

level targets and release rules

The SF American in WEAP

Watershed represented as a set of sub-catchments

(1)

2

19 Catchments

7 Rivers

6 Reservoirs

9 Instream flow requirements

• EID Demands and Infrastructure

• Operating Logic

Model BuildingModel BuildingExample: Minimum IFRs below Example: Minimum IFRs below

reservoirreservoir

Caples Creek Below Caples Lake Dam

Month Minimum Streamflow by Water Year (cfs)CD DRY BN AN WET

OCT 5 5 5 5 5NOV 5 6 or NF 8 or NF 10 or NF 10 or NFDEC 5 7 or NF 10 or NF 10 or NF 10 or NFJAN 5 7 or NF 10 or NF 15 or NF 15 or NFFEB 5 7 or NF 10 or NF 15 or NF 15 or NF

MAR 5 10 or NF 15 or NF 20 or NF 20 or NFAPR 10 12 or NF 18 or NF 25 or NF 25 or NFMAY 14 27 or NF 40 or NF 55 or NF 55 or NF

JUNE 14 28 or NF 42 or NF 55 or NF 55 or NFJULY 12 25 or NF 35 or NF 50 or NF 50 or NF AUG 5 5 6 or NF 8 or NF 8 or NF

SEPT 5 5 5 5 5

Legal description of instream flow requirements based on time of year and water year type (a report)

- Pulse Flow: 5-day pulse corresponds to peak streamflow

-

1st, build a model of the water year type

Then use the expression editor to describe and view those rules

Below Reservoir monthly IFRSpring Pulse IFR

Critical Decision Point in the EID System

Future IFR – Dependent upon both time-of-year and water-year-typeSouth Fork American River Below Kyburz Diversion

Month Minimum Streamflow by Water Year (cfs)CD DRY BN AN WET

OCT 15 15 40 50 50NOV 15 18 40 50 50DEC 15 25 40 50 50JAN 15 25 40 50 50FEB 20 30 40 50 75

MAR 30 60 110 110 110APR 60 120 180 180 180MAY 60 120 180 240 240

JUNE 60 120 180 240 240JULY 40 85 125 160 160AUG 18 18 65 65 65

SEPT 15 15 50 50 50

Current IFR ~ 50 CFS year-round

• EID diversion for hydropower and water supply,

2

WEAP Simulations are Built Around “Scenarios”

Calibration ResultsWeekly Avg. (’92-02)

Current and Future Environmental IFR’s reflected over ’82 to ‘92

A Simple Climate “Change” Experiment

+Δ 2Cº Incrementally added to the entire temperature record for all 19 sub-catchments

Weekly Avg. streamflow below the EID Diversion

Avg. Total Reservoir Storage

Percent Avg. Flow Requirement Coverage

Water Temperatures

Water Temperatures Relative to Current

Revisit: What we will need from you

• Need to know how to prioritize our efforts to address your questions

• Acquisition of data (times series of inflows, reservoir releases/levels, operational logic, service area, info on PG&E system)