Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation

Auditor of Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation

Alexander Piskunov

Possibilities of using information technologies for KNI evaluation

KNI transparency problem

2

Progress definition

Freedom as realized necessity

(F. Engels)

Freedom as possibility of self-realization

(A. Sena)

Freedom as the realized potential possibilities of realization of final goals

Development of socio-economic capabilities as ends and means of development

Development of socio-economic capabilities as ends and means of development

3

Using the capabilities approach fora comprehensive evaluation of a project

Capability: property of a system, probability that the system will succeed in achieving the goal of its functioning.

The correspondence between required and predicted state sets in the functioning of a system can be represented as the probability of the following binary predicate being true:

1,

дk k

k K

Poss Y Y

, 1, ;kY k K прогнозные значения

, 1, .дkY k K требуемые значения

predicted state set

required state set

4

Problem of development management evaluation

Measurement of social-economical capability as progress measurement 5

Ind

exes

of

po

ten

tial

s o

f

com

pet

itiv

e ab

ilit

y

Evaluation of key assets indexes of providing competitive ability potentials

Key assets

Countries

6

Strategic goalsInternational standards and agreements

Terms and definitions

Databases provided by national statistics agencies and international institutions, including UN, OECD, WB, IMF, Eurostat

AtributesComputation methodologies

Key National Indicators Knowledge Base

7

Cluster analysis results (based on 410 KNI provided by World Bank with 2000-2008 time frame)

8

9

Cluster analysis results (based on 119 competitiveness indicators provided by WEF 2010)

Uncovering hidden patterns with Data Mining

techniques

Uncovering hidden patterns with Data Mining

techniques

KNI identification with Data Mining techniques

Revealed dependencies of Global Competitiveness Index on KNI

Revealed dependencies of Global Competitiveness Index on KNI

410 indicators36 countries

time frame 2004 – 2008

410 indicators36 countries

time frame 2004 – 2008

Global Competitiveness

Index

Global Competitiveness

Index

10

Statistically significant KNI

11

Socio-economic development indicator Correlation coefficient

Number of Internet users, per 100 citizens 0.879

Life expectancy at birth, years 0.736

GDP per capita, PPP US$ 0.716

Female survival to age 65, % of cohort 0.702

Population ages 65 and above, % of total 0.516

Significant indicators identified with convenient statistical techniques

Significant indicators identified with Data Mining techniques

Socio-economic development indicator Correlation coefficient

Agricultural raw materials imports, % of merchandise imports -0.083

Electricity production from oil sources, % of total -0.332

Urban population growth, annual % -0.107

Foreign direct investment, net inflows, % of GDP 0.034

Problem of development metrics transparency

12

13

Socio-economic development comparison

Results of complex KNI assessment

14

Country B

Country C

15

Results of complex KNI assessment

Problem of development potentials comparison

16

Conceptual space for development potential assessment

17

Results of KNI assessment with imitation modeling of development programs

18

Interval-based assessment of investment projects

19

Capability indicator at a critically low level

20

Information technology improvements in management and audit

21

The practice of comprehensive audit

22

Indicators for comprehensive evaluation

23

The architecture of comprehensive audit

24

Performance audit

Analyze and diagnose the results of FA and PA