The Human's Guideto a Machine World

5 secrets to discovering the mysteries hidden in the machine world.

The University of Utah | David Eccles School of Business | | David Wellman | February 21, 2017

Let’s reframe how we look at data.

Data is a shadow of human behavior.Look for the narrative within your data.

Learn to listen to your data.

😃Look for the narrative in your data.

☹ Don’t assume you know your data.

How will you use your data?

😃Look for the narrative in your data. ☹ Don’t assume you know your data.

How will you use your data?What are you asking your data?

😃Look for the narrative in your data. ☹ Don’t assume you know your data.

How will you use your data?What are you asking your data?

Asking questions before vs after.

😃Look for the narrative in your data. ☹ Don’t assume you know your data.

Case Study: Myriad Genetics

The Laboratory Process & Statistical Sampling

Ask questionsthat lead to action.

😃Avoid blind spots by asking real questions.

☹ Made-up problems result in made-up solutions.

ALL Vanity metrics suck.

😃Avoid blind spots by asking real questions ☹ Made-up problems result in made-up solutions.

ALL Vanity metrics suck. Ask simple questions not easy ones.

😃Avoid blind spots by asking real questions ☹ Made-up problems result in made-up solutions.

ALL Vanity metrics suck. Ask simple questions not easy ones.Measure the response to questions.

😃Avoid blind spots by asking real questions ☹ Made-up problems result in made-up solutions.

ALL Vanity metrics suck. Ask simple questions not easy ones.Measure the response to questions.

Compound Learning is Awesome.

😃Avoid blind spots by asking real questions ☹ Made-up problems result in made-up solutions.

ALL Vanity metrics suck. Ask simple questions not easy ones.Measure the response to questions.

Compound Learning is Awesome.Don’t just move the needle – stomp on it

with everything you got!

😃Avoid blind spots by asking real questions ☹ Made-up problems result in made-up solutions.

Case Study: eBay

1,000,000 or 1$10 or $250,000

Think BIG,build small.

😃Do one thing well and ignore the rest.

☹ Don’t fixate on the technology.

Moonshots start small.

😃Do one thing well and ignore the rest. ☹ Don’t fixate on the technology.

Moonshots start small.

Truths are almost always hiding in plain sight.

😃Do one thing well and ignore the rest. ☹ Don’t fixate on the technology.

Moonshots start small.

Truths are almost always hiding in plain sight.

Too many think that the more complicated something is, the better but it comes off as clumsy and unfocused.

😃Do one thing well and ignore the rest. ☹ Don’t fixate on the technology.

Moonshots start small.

Truths are almost always hiding in plain sight.

Too many think that the more complicated something is, the better but it comes off as clumsy and unfocused.

Structure the problem in a context that you understand.

😃Do one thing well and ignore the rest. ☹ Don’t fixate on the technology.

Moonshots start small.

Truths are almost always hiding in plain sight.

Too many think that the more complicated something is, the better but it comes off as clumsy and unfocused.

Structure the problem in a context that you understand.

Priorities – Focus on the one thing that matters most.

😃Do one thing well and ignore the rest. ☹ Don’t fixate on the technology.

Case Study: NASA

Focus

2/21/03 6

Review of Test Data Indicates Conservatism for TilePenetration

! The existing SOFI on tile test data used to create Craterwas reviewed along with STS-87 Southwest Research data– Crater overpredicted penetration of tile coating

significantly" Initial penetration to described by normal velocity

• Varies with volume/mass of projectile (e.g., 200ft/sec for3cu. In)

" Significant energy is required for the softer SOFI particleto penetrate the relatively hard tile coating

• Test results do show that it is possible at sufficient massand velocity

" Conversely, once tile is penetrated SOFI can causesignificant damage

• Minor variations in total energy (above penetration level)can cause significant tile damage

– Flight condition is significantly outside of test database" Volume of ramp is 1920cu in vs 3 cu in for test

2/21/03 13

Summary and Conclusion

! Impact analysis (“Crater”) indicates potential for large TPSdamage– Review of test data shows wide variation in impact response– RCC damage limited to coating based on soft SOFI

! Thermal analysis of wing with missing tile is in work– Single tile missing shows local structural damage is possible,

but no burn through– Multiple tile missing analysis is on-going

! M/OD criteria used to assess structural impacts of tile loss– Allows significant temperature exceedance, even some burn

through" Impact to vehicle turnaround possible, but maintains safe

return capabilityConclusion! Contingent on multiple tile loss thermal analysis showing

no violation of M/OD criteria, safe return indicated even withsignificant tile damage

After action review: What do these slide tell you?

2/21/03 6

Review of Test Data Indicates Conservatism for TilePenetration

! The existing SOFI on tile test data used to create Craterwas reviewed along with STS-87 Southwest Research data– Crater overpredicted penetration of tile coating

significantly" Initial penetration to described by normal velocity

• Varies with volume/mass of projectile (e.g., 200ft/sec for3cu. In)

" Significant energy is required for the softer SOFI particleto penetrate the relatively hard tile coating

• Test results do show that it is possible at sufficient massand velocity

" Conversely, once tile is penetrated SOFI can causesignificant damage

• Minor variations in total energy (above penetration level)can cause significant tile damage

– Flight condition is significantly outside of test database" Volume of ramp is 1920cu in vs 3 cu in for test

2/21/03 13

Summary and Conclusion

! Impact analysis (“Crater”) indicates potential for large TPSdamage– Review of test data shows wide variation in impact response– RCC damage limited to coating based on soft SOFI

! Thermal analysis of wing with missing tile is in work– Single tile missing shows local structural damage is possible,

but no burn through– Multiple tile missing analysis is on-going

! M/OD criteria used to assess structural impacts of tile loss– Allows significant temperature exceedance, even some burn

through" Impact to vehicle turnaround possible, but maintains safe

return capabilityConclusion! Contingent on multiple tile loss thermal analysis showing

no violation of M/OD criteria, safe return indicated even withsignificant tile damage

After action review: Is this clear?

In time, good ideas become bad ideas.

😃Move the needle that moves a mountain.

☹ Don’t forget, people change (and the data follows).

Tell the truth.

😃Move the needle that moves a mountain. ☹ Don’t forget, people change.

Tell the truth.

Look for truth not just facts.

😃Move the needle that moves a mountain. ☹ Don’t forget, people change.

Tell the truth.

Look for truth not just facts.

when you see the truth you will see it everywhere.

😃Move the needle that moves a mountain. ☹ Don’t forget, people change.

Tell the truth.

Look for truth not just facts.

when you see the truth you will see it everywhere.

Smart people often have the hardest time seeing truth.

😃Move the needle that moves a mountain. ☹ Don’t forget, people change.

Tell the truth.

Look for truth not just facts.

when you see the truth you will see it everywhere.

Smart people often have the hardest time seeing truth.

People are not concerned with facts, just truth and sometimes facts can get in the way of truth.

😃Move the needle that moves a mountain. ☹ Don’t forget, people change.

Tell the truth.

Look for truth not just facts.

when you see the truth you will see it everywhere.

Smart people often have the hardest time seeing truth.

People are not concerned with facts, just truth and sometimes facts can get in the way of truth.

Back it up with solid and consistent evidence.

😃Move the needle that moves a mountain. ☹ Don’t forget, people change.

Case Study: John Harrison

The Longitude Problem

Don’t forget to look forward.

😃Turn around and enjoy the view.

☹ Locking your eyes on the past is dangerous.

How do market changes change your narrative?

😃Turn around and enjoy the view. ☹ Locking your eyes on the past is dangerous.

How do market changes change your narrative?Is there a new narrative there is a new “truth”?

😃Turn around and enjoy the view. ☹ Locking your eyes on the past is dangerous.

“We didn’t do anything wrong, but somehow, we lost.”

-- CEO, Nokia 2105

1.Learn how to listen to the data.

2.Ask questions that lead to action.

3.Think BIG, build small.

4.In time, good ideas become bad ideas.

5.Don’t forget to look forward.

What does the machine world

look like?

“I'm limited by the technology of my time, but one day you'll figure this out. And when you do, you will change the world.”

― Howard Stark's message to Tony Stark

Questions?