- 1. A Balanced Look at Climate Change A Balanced Look at Climate
Change Professor Hector R Rodriguez School of Business Mount Ida
College Business, Society & Environment
2.
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- The Corporation and Its Stakeholders
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- People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals
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- The Social Responsibility of Business
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- The Shareholder Primacy Norm
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- CSR, Citizenship and Sustainability Reporting
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- The Community and the Corporation
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- Taxation and Corporate Citizenship
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- Corporate Philanthropy Programs
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- Employees and the Corporation
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- Managing a Diverse Workforce
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- A Balanced Look at Climate Change
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- Non-anthropogenic Causes of Climate Change
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- Sulfates, Urban Warming and Permafrost
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- Green Information Technology
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- Transportation, Electric Vehicles and the Environment
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- Carbon Capture and Storage
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- Solid, Toxic and Hazardous Waste
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- Forests, Paper and Carbon Sinks
Course Map Topics Covered in Course 3.
- This session aims to give you a balanced look at the arguments
surrounding Climate Change
-
- As usual, when one loiters at an one extreme of any discussion,
the arguments become crystal clear, when in fact they are anything
but.
- Surrounding Climate Change in particular, a few arguments seem
to be settled, including the following:
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- There isevidenceof historical Climate Change
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- Human activity isinfluencingCO 2concentrations in the air
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- CO 2is a greenhouse gas which traps heat in the atmospherewith
the potential to increase temperatures throughout the world
Objective Many other hypotheticals are just that and should not
be considered facts. 4.
- In this section I will present different perspectives regarding
the potential impacts of Climate Change.
- Perspective One represented by organizations and individuals
such as the IPCC and Al Gore
- Perspective Two represented by organizations and individuals
such as the Copenhagen Consensus and Bjorn Lomborg
- As you will see, current arguments are not crystal clear
Climate Change, What Does it Mean? 5. Argument 1 of 6 - Food
6.
- Crop productivity is projected to increaseslightly atmid to
high latitudesfor local mean temperature increases of up to 1 to 3C
depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some
regions.
- At lower latitudes , especially in seasonally dry and tropical
regions,crop productivity is projected to decreasefor even small
local temperature increases (1 to 2C), which would increase the
risk of hunger.
Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate
Change 2007: Synthesis Report, 2007 IPCC on Food 7.
- Globally, the potential for food production is projected to
increase with increases in local average temperature over a range
of 1 to 3C, but above this it is projected to decrease
Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate
Change 2007: Synthesis Report, 2007 IPCC on Food 8.
- Food availability has increased dramatically over the last four
decades ; the average person in the developing world has
experienced a 40% increase in available calories, while the
proportion of malnourished has dropped from 50 to 17%.
- A few large scale surveys have looked at the effect of climate
change on agricultural production together with the global food
trade system.Crucial findings:
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- All models envision a large increase in agricultural
output
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- In worst case scenarios this means a 7% yield decrease in the
developing world (still an overall increase of 270% by 2100).
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- CO 2in itself accounts as a positive factor, since it acts as
fertilizer, making crops grow more everywhere.
Copenhagen Consensus on Food Source: Bjorn Lomborg, Cool It:
September 4, 2007 9. Argument 2 of 6 - Extreme Weather Events
10.
- Industry, settlements and society
Extreme Weather Events
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- Whats clear - The most vulnerable industries, settlements and
societies are generally those in coastal and river flood plains,
those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive
resources and those in areas prone to extreme weather events.
- While the data on the right seems to confirm this, the trend
lacks appropriate context (see next slide).
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/full-report/climate-change-impacts-by-sector/society
11.
- In Florida, Dade and Broward counties are today home to more
people than lived in 1930 in all 109 coastal counties from Texas to
Virginia.
- If the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane had hit today, it would have
created the worst damage ever in the United States.*
*Pielke, Roger (2006), Normalized Hurricane Damages in the
United States: 1900-2005 Extreme Weather Events 19302006 Same
population in both outlined areas 12.
- The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones
seems then to largely have been caused by rising concentrations of
population and infrastructure in coastal regions, not by increasing
hurricane strength.
*Pielke, Roger (2006), Normalized Hurricane Damages in the
United States: 1900-2005 Extreme Weather Events 13.
- Global warming eventually will increase precipitation,
especially heavy rains; this will lead to more flooding
- Increased rains however does not seem to be translating into
flooding in rivers; this holds true in a sample of over 200
rivers.
- When studying U.S. rivers we see increasing precipitation
causing increasing stream flows, but this happens mostly during the
fall, when there is generally lower flow and little risk of
flooding.
- As with hurricanes, economic losses hold the key
Copenhagen Consensus on Flooding Rivers 14. Argument 3 of 6 -
Rising Sea Levels 15.
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- Sea levels will rise 12-18 inches by 2100 (high
confidence)
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- Note: sea levels have risen approximately 12 inches in the last
hundred years
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- Coasts are projected to be exposed to increasing risks,
including coastal erosion, due to climate change and sea level
rise. The effect will be exacerbated by increasing human-induced
pressures on coastal areas ( very high confidence ).
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- By the 2080s, many millions more people than today are
projected to experience floods every year due to sea level rise.
The numbers affected will be largest in the densely populated and
low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are
especially vulnerable ( very high confidence ).
Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate
Change 2007: Synthesis Report, 2007 Issues of Future Climate
Changes 16. Al Gore on Rising Sea Levels
- Al Gore Here we see how large parts of Florida, including all
of Miami, will be inundated by 20 feet of water.
17.
- The IPCC says one foot, Gore says 20 feet, how so?He simply
says If Greenland melted or broke up and half of Antarctica melted
of broke up and slipped into the sea, sea levels worldwide would
increase by 18-20 feet.He is simply posting a hypothetical.Bjorn
Lomborg in Cool It
- Statements like these (Gores), which aim to alert at best,
scare at worst, are not beneficial when we try to bring credibility
to an argument.
- As business people, we must stay away from them
Rising Sea Levels 18.
- A 2006 Science paper by Eric Rignot documented increasing
runoff from the main ice sheet and peripheral glaciers at a rate of
53 +/- cubic miles, a seemingly large number
- Greenlands ice mass is estimated at 6.8 x 10 5cubic miles
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- The loss equals 8 thousandths of a percent per year,
translating to a sea level rise of two hundredths of an inch per
year
Greenland 19. Argument 4 of 6 - Droughts 20.
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- Widespread mass losses from glaciers and reductions in snow
cover over recent decades are projected to accelerate throughout
the 21st century,
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- This willreduce water availability ,hydropower potential,and
change seasonality of flows in regions supplied by meltwater from
major mountain ranges.
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- There is also high confidence that many semi-arid areas (e.g.
the Mediterranean Basin, western United States, southern Africa and
north-eastern Brazil) will suffer a decrease in water resources due
to climate change.
Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate
Change 2007: Synthesis Report, 2007 IPCC on Droughts 21.
- The water-stress index looks at how much water is available per
person and counts people with less than 1,000 m 3(seven gallons per
day) as highly water stressed.
- When looking forward to future years, it is clear that more
people are going to be water stressed,as a consequence of an
increasing population.
World Water Report 22.
- The UKs Fast Track Assessment concludes that global warming
actually reduces the number of people living in water-stressed
areas, with less water stress in warmer scenarios than in colder
ones.
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- This is because a warmer world also means more precipitation,
in general models predict about 5% more precipitation by 2100.Some
parts will get drier, especially the Mediterranean area, central
and southern Africa, and the southern United States.
-
- In total however (including wetter western Africa), with
warming we have an Africa where 24 million fewer will be water
stressed
- In its 2006 World Water Report, the UN summarizes that the lack
of water is primarily driven by an inefficient supply of services
rather than by water shortages.
More on Water Shortages 23. Argument 5 of 6 - Heat Wave 24.
- Models show that heat events we now see every twenty years will
become much more frequent, every three years by the end of the
century
- This confirms the prospect that we could be seeing many more
heat deaths, a tragedy that will indeed be caused by global
warming
- But cold spells will decrease just as much as heat waves
increase.In areas where there is one cold spell every three years,
by the end of the century those would happen only once every twenty
years
Heat Deaths, Way of the Future? Source: Bjorn Lomborg, Cool It:
September 4, 2007 25.
- The heat wave in Europe in early August 2003 was a catastrophe;
the death toll ran to more than 35,000
- While thirty-five thousand dead is a terrifyingly large number,
we should look at the number in context:
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- 2,000 people died from heat in the United Kingdom in 2003, yet
47,000 cold deaths were reported on average between 1998-2000
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- It is remarkable that a single heat-death episode of 35,000
from many countries can get everyone up in arms, while cold deaths
of 25-50,000 a year in a single country pass almost unnoticed.
Death in Europe Source: Bjorn Lomborg, Cool It: September 4,
2007 26.
- Several recent studies have looked at adaptation in up to 28 of
the biggest cities in the United States.
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- In Philadelphia, the optimal temperature seems to be about 80
oF.In the 1960s, when it got hotter (100 oF), the death rate
increased sharply.
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- Yet something happened in the decades following, temperatures
in the 100 oF today cause almost no excess deaths.We actually
learned to adapt to higher temperatures.
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- Consequently we could experience fewer deaths even when
temperatures rise.
- Urbanheat islandsare already affecting cities around the world,
with Tokyo experiencing a differential ofmore than 20 oFfrom its
suburbs.
Adapting to Heat Source: Bjorn Lomborg, Cool It: September 4,
2007 27. Argument 6 of 6 - Polar Bears 28.
- It's no secret that polar bears are in deep trouble; there are
only between 20,000 and 25,000 of them left in the world.
- Perhaps the best studied of the groups is the Western Hudson
Bay population, which scientists have been monitoring since the
1960s.
- For decades, membership of the group remained relatively
stable, at about 1,200 adults and cubs. Between 1987 and 1994,
however precisely the years in which the rise in global
temperatures have become the most evident the number plummeted to
935, or a die-off of 22%.
- It's not just the fact that the bears are dying that's so
alarming, but the way they're dying and all of it points to a
warmer world.
Polar Bears are Dying - Time 29.
- The report relied extensively on research published in 2001 by
the Polar Bear Specialist Group of the World Conservation
Union
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- What the group indicated was that of the twenty distinct
subpopulations of polar bears, one or possibly two were declining
in Baffin Bay; more than half were known to be stable; and two
subpopulations were actuallyincreasingaround Beaufort Sea.
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- Moreover, it is reported that the global polar bear population
has increased dramatically over the past few decades, from about
five thousand members in the 1960s to twenty five thousand today,
through stricter hunting regulation
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- Contrary to what we may expect, the two populations in decline
come from areas where it has actually been getting colder over the
past fifty years.
Polar Bears are Dying Behind the Story 30.
- At times, we hear claims that are not supported by data.
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- While it is likely that disappearing ice will force them to
change their lifestyle, over the past forty years the populations
have increased and are now stable.
- Polar bears are not the only story.
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- While we hear about the troubled species, it is also a fact
that many species will do better with climate change; higher
temperatures mean more nesting birds and more butterflies.
- Our worries makes us focus on the wrong solutions.
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- If indeed the polar bear population was going down, stricter
hunting regulations would have a swifter effect (and did) than
trying to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
The Polar Bear Story Teaches Us Three Things Source: Bjorn
Lomborg, Cool It: September 4, 2007 We mustchooseto remain
open-minded and free from passionate extremism 31. Alarmist
Language and its Effects 32.
- Note how the descriptions typically talk only about the
impending problems and conspicuously leave out any positive
consequences.
- The descriptions tend toward hyperbole;
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- Once the freeze starts, it will be too late
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- The surface temperature of the whole North Atlantic has cooled
one eight of the way back to full ice age conditions
Alarmist Language and its Effects Again the key is to remain
open-minded and free from passionate extremism 33.
- Sea levels will rise about a foot over the next 100 years
causing social and economic challenges
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- Sea levels have risen about a foot over the last 150 years with
limited (though catastrophic to individuals) impact
- Many will die due to increasing heat waves
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- Many will be saved through significantly less cold deaths
- Polar Bears may be at risk due to global warming
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- More polar bears can be saved by less hunting than by
reductions of CO 2
- Glaciers will continue to melt at an ever increasing pace
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- Glacier meltdown will provide more fresh water over next 50
years
A Balanced Conclusion 34.
- Human activity is increasing the levels of CO 2in the
atmosphere
- Greenhouse gases trap heat
A Balanced Conclusion (cont.) While current public discourse is
fraught with hyperbole and hypotheticals, what cannot be obscured
is that the current trend of ever increasing greenhouse gas
emissions cannot continue at the current rate for much longer if we
are to have a sustainable future. 35.
- A comprehensive strategy to mitigate the risk associated with
GHG emissions must be implemented.It should include the following
steps:
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- Developing renewable sources of energy
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- Implementing comprehensive International Protocols
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- Establishing emission trading markets (Cap & Trade)
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- Increasing efficiency (in buildings, IT, transportation)
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- Implementing engineering controls (geo-engineering, CCS)
A Balanced Conclusion (cont.) Well discuss each one of these
potential steps in future sessions