NO-R1BS 354 TRANSPORTATION EVALUATION RESEARCH PROJECT (TERP)(U) 1/'5MWN CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA NOP V COYLE ET AL. JUN B? CAA-SR-B?-i±

UN a .RI SSFIEI EF//G15/5NL

NOWL':=

A-

STUDY REPORT ffit rILE GOPCA- SR-87-11(I

In

TRANSPORTATION EVALUATIONRESEARCH PROJECT

0 (TERP)

JUNE 1987 i.:L E CTE0

SOCT02 1987

PREPARED BYSTRATEGY AND PLANS DIRECTORATE

US ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY8120 WOODMONT AVENUE

BETHESDA, MARYLAND 20814-2797

L pproved for Public aeleDistribution .~xmt

k 10.11h1 *fAIls 411A.1.flCW

CAA-SR-87- 11

UNCLASSIFIEDJ

la RP SECURITY CLASSIFICATION UHOIT REDSTRIBUTION MARINGSIYO RPR

2b DECLASSIFICATION /DOWNGRAING SCHEDULE Unlimited

4 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) S MONITORIN.G ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S)

CAA-SR-87-l116a,.rMJ OF PE8FORMIN2 ORGANIZATION 6b OFFICE SYMBOL 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION

AnlssAgency CSCA-SPM

15c. ADDRESS (0fy. State. and ZIP Code) 7b ADDRESS (Cii)'. State, and ZIP Code)

8120 Woodmont AvenueBethesda, MD 20814-2797

Ba NM OF FUNDING/SPONSORING 8eb OFFICE SYMBOL 9. PROCUREMENT- INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBERORAIZOj(if aicbe

8c_ ADDRESS (01)l State, and ZIP Cd)10. SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERSPROGRAM PROJECT ITASK WORK UNITE LEMIENT NO NO NO ACCESSION NO

11 TITLE (Include Security Classification)

Transportation Evaluation Research Project (TERP)(U)

12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S)

Coyle, Philip V., LTC and Gerstein, Daniel, M., CPT13a TYPE OF REPORT 13b TIME COVERED 14DATE OF REPORT (Year, Month, Day) 15 PAGE COUNTFinal FROMNoy 86TO =n7F 879715 83

16. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION

17 COSATI CODES 18. SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse of necesary and identify by biock number)FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP Strategic Mobility1_____________of;____ Intertheater deployment

19; nriIntratheater deployment19 ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by bilock number)

-The study team evaluated the overall US Army Concepts Analysis Agency (CAA) needs for .

inter- and intratheater transportation analyses and recommnended the type of transoortationmodel best suited to meet those needs. Existing models within the Department of Defense(DOD) commnunity were considered as was the feasibility of development of a new model.

22a NAME OF RESPONSIBLE NOiVIDUAL .It) '-EOcirE (inlIude Area Codel X .,

CPT Daniel M. Gerstein 202-295-1082 CSC:ASP'M"DO FORM 1473. 84 MAR 83 APR ecatwn may ne used ,T C~3AC A)- S 4, E

All other editions are ooo,ete UNCLASS IF IED

: ve

STUDY REPORTCAA-SR-7-11

TRANSPORTATION EVALUATION RESEARCH PROJECT

(TERP)

UJune 1987 Accesion ForNTIS CRAWIOTIC TAB0Unannounced 0J

RE: Classified Reference, Distribution Jsiiain.....-.

UnlimitedByg %.eo

No change in the distribution statement per Dist nbuionj

Captian Daniel M. Gerstein, USACAA/CSCA-SPM

DTIr py

Prepared by

STRATEGY AND PLANS DIRECTORATE

P US Army Concepts Analysis Agency8120 Woodmont Avenue

CIS Bethesda, Maryland 20814-2797

AM # ,

CAA-SR-87- 11

This document was prepared as part of an internal CAA project.

ITA116%

:21

RESEARCH PROJECT SU MMARY(TERP) jCAA- SR-87-11

THE REASON FOR PERFORMING THE STUDY is to evaluate the overall USArmy Concepts Analysis Agency (CAA) needs for inter- and intratheatertransportation analyses and to recommend the type of transportation modelbest suited to meet those needs.

THE PRINCIPAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS of the TERP Study are the determinationof:

(1) The strategic mobility analysis process which should be utilizedat CAA and the requirements for a transportation model to support thisanalysis process.

(2) The capabilities and shortfalls of existing Department of Defense(0OD) transportation models when compared to the model requirements in (1)above.

(3) Determination of whether an existing model can fully meet CAArequirements to support the strategic mobility analysis process.

(4) The hardware/software environment and the approximate resourcesassociated with the development of a new model, if required, which wouldmeet the requirements in (1) above.

THE MAIN ASSUMPTIONS of this study are:

(1) Requirements for current and near-term transportation analyses canbe adequately defined.

(2) The Agency transportation model must be compatible with the ForceEvaluation Model (FORCEM), the Agency's theater combat simulation model.

(3) The acquisition of a transportation model which requires a new -'

mainframe computer is not feasible.

THE PRINCIPAL LIMITATIONS of this work are:

(1) The capabilities and shortfalls of the mo(lels addressed in thestudy were determined from user's manuals or model operators rather thanfrom first-hand experience by the study team.

(2) The resources associated with new model development are only grossestimates that are based on general model requirements.

THE SCOPE OFTHE STUDY includes Inter- and intratheater transportationanalyses and the interface needed between a Continental United States(CONUS)/mobilization model and an intertheater model.

THE STUDY OBJECTIVES are:

(1) To determine requirements for transportation analysis at CAA andfor a model to support this analysis.

(2) To determine the adequacy of the current transportation analysisprocess at CAA to meet requirements.

(3) To provide alternate concepts, if necessary, to complement orreplace the current transportation process at CAA to meet requirements.

THE BASICAPPROACH for the study was to interview selected individualsconcerned with transportation analysis both within CAA (leadership, studydirectors, model operators) and outside CAA (Office of the Secretary ofDefense (0SD)), Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS)) and combine their commentswith the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Logistics (ODCSLOG)strategic mobility needs addressed in the Army Strategic Mobility SystemAssessment (ASMSA) Study to determine the overall need for transportation .3analysis at CAA and the requirements for a model to support the analysis.Next the model requirements were compared to the capabilities of existingtransportation models in use throughout the Army Staff, JCS, and 0S0. Theexisting models were then examined for modification feasibility andcompared to new model alternatives to determine the best course of action.

THE STUDY SPONSOR was the Director, US Army Concepts Analysis Agency.

THE STUDY EFFORT was directed by LTC Philip V. Coyle, Strategy and PlansDirectorate.

COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS may be addressed to the Director, US ArmyConcepts Analysis Agency, ATTN: CSCA-SP, 8120 Woodmont Avenue, Bethesda,Maryland 20814-2797.

Tear-out copies of this synopsis are at back cover.

€, --

.-. ** .. ** .,

-<:.:€~ *- -

CAA-SR-87-11

CONTENTS

ANNOTATED BRIEFING Page

BACKGROUND .......................................... 1

METHODOLOGY ...................................... 6

DATA COLLECTION ..................................... 8

STRATEGIC MOBILITY ANALYSIS OBJECTIVES .............. 14

STRATEGIC MOBILITY ANALYSIS PROCESS ................. 18

MODEL REQUIREMENTS .................................. 20

MODELS TO BE CONSIDERED ............................. 44

NEW MODEL CONSIDERATIONS ........................... 68

CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS ......................... 72

APPENDIX

A Study Contributors .............................. A-1B Study Directive ............................... B-IC Bibliography .................................... C-I0 Distribution .................................... D-1

GLOSSARY ................................................... Glossary-i

STUDY SUMMARY (tear-out copies)

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CAA-SR-87-11

APPENDIX A

STUDY CONTRIBUTORS

1. STUDY TEAM

a. Study Director

LTC Philip V. Coyle, Strategy and Plans Directorate

b. Team Member

CPT Daniel M. Gerstein

2. PRODUCT REVIEW BOARD .

LTC Charles E. Gettig, Jr. ChairmanCPT(P) Mark DeVita .

Mr. Joel S. GordonMr. Steven Khan

4-

CAA-SR-87-11

APPEND IX 8

STUDY DIRECTIVE

DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMYUS ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY

8120 WOODMONT AVENUE

BETHESDA, MARYLAND

20814-2797

0 9 FEB 1997CSCA-SP

MEMORANDUM FOR ASSISTANT DIRECTOR, STRATEGY, CONCEPTS AND PLANS DIRECTORATE %

SUBJECT: Transportation Evaluation Research Project (TERP)

1. PURPOSE OF STUDY DIRECTIVE. This directive requires the Strategy,Concepts, and Plans Directorate to conduct a study to evaluate the overallAgency needs for inter and Intratheater transportation analyses and torecommend the type of transportation model best suited to meet those needs.

2. BACKGROUND.

a. The Strategy, Concepts, and Plans Directorate (SP) currently usesTransportaticn Model (TRANSMO) to provide strategic deployment analysissupport to many CAA studies. TRANSMO was developed in 1973 as an evolutionaryvariant of the Preliminary Force Designer - Simulation Allocation Model (PFD-SAM) which was a low resolution strategic mobility model used to provide anestimated force closure schedule. Since its initial development, TRANSMO hasundergone many revisions in order to continue to meet the needs of its users.

b. The evolution in the needs of TRANSMO users and assorted CAA modelsplus advances in computer software and hardware capabilities have necessitatedthat the requirements for a revised transportation modeling environment beexamined.

3. STUDY SPONSOR. US Army Concepts Analysis Agency."% ',

4. STUDY AGENCY. Strategy, Concepts, and Plans Directorate, CAA.

5. TERMS OF REFERENCE.

a. Scope. The study will encompass an investigation of the strategicmobility process required at CAA in support of force design, development andcapability studies as well as independent transportation studies. The studywill examine intra/intertheater strategic mobility analytic requirements.

b. Objective. This study has three objectives: -w

(1) To determine requirements for transportation analysis at CAA andfor a model to support this analysis.

(2) To determine adequacy of the current transportation analysisprocess at CAA to meet requirements.

8-1

N N N N

CAA-SR-87-11

-A

CSCA-SPSUBJECT: Transportation Evaluation Research Project (TERP)

(3) To provide alternative concepts if necessary to complement orreplace the current transportation process at CAA in order to meetrequirements.

c. Assumptions.

(1) Requirements for current and near term transportation analysys canbe adequately defined. /

(2) The Agency transportation model must be compatible with FORCEM. _,4-

(3) The acquisition of a transportation model which requires a newmainframe computer is not feasible.

d. Essential Elements of Analysis (EEA).

(1) What are the requirements for a model to support the strategicmobility analysis process at CA? 4

(2) To what extent do existing models satisfy these requirements?

(3) What are the alternatives which satisfy the requirementsdetermined in EEA 1, and what are the required resources associated with each?

(4) What is the recommended alternative and the rationale?

(5) What are the requirements for a CONUS mobilization model which

will interface with the alternative chosen in EEA 4?

e. Environmental and threat guidance.

(1) No threat guidance is needed for this study.

(2) No environmental consequences are envisioned, however, the studyagency is required to surface and address any environmental considerationsthat develop during the course of the study effort.

f. Estimated cost savings and other benefits. A cost-benefit analysis of

the possible options will be conducted.

6. RESPONSIBILITIES:

a. SP. Conduct the study; analyze the study results; makerecommendations concerning the agency's strategic mobility analysisrequirements, write and publish a study report.

b. FO. Determine the Agency's requirements for a CONUS mobilizationmodel and provide the requirements to the study director for inclusion in thestudy report.

2

1-2.

CAA-SR-87-11

SUBJECT: Transportation Evaluation Research Project (TERP) a7. LITERATURE SEARCH. The literature search will include the followingareas:

a. Agency studies: ASMSA I, SRA, OMNIBUS, MRFS, LRFS, PFCA, JPAM, TRAC. e

b. Models: FORCEM, FASTALS, TRANSMO, MIDAS, MOVER, SHAKER, MODES, SITAP.

c. Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC).

8. REFERENCES:

a. AR 5-5, Army Studies and Analysis, Oct 81.

b. DA PAM 5-5, Guidance for Army Study Sponsor, Sponsor's Study Directors,Study Advisory Groups, and Contracting Officer Representation, Apr 82.

c. CAA, Study Director's Guide, May 86.

9. ADMINISTRATION

a. Support. Funding, facilities, ADPE, and administrative support to beprovided by CAA.

b. Milestone schedule.

(1) Final results will be briefed to ARB NLT 31 March 1987.

(2) Study report will be completed NLT 15 May 1987.

c. Study Team is responsible for preparing and submitting DD Form 1498and final study documents to DTIC.

r W3"

E. B. VANDIVER IIIDirector

",%3 % .

B-3

&AA-"

d ~ , .. .

CAA-SR-87-11

APPENDIX C

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Army Strategic Mobility System Assessment (ASMSA), Study ReportCAA-SR-86-25, September 1986

Contingency Force Analysis System (CFAS), Volume I, DocumentationCAA-D-84-12, July 1984

Deployment Methodology User's Guide (Short Title: REDEM User'sGuide), Documentation CAA-D-84-12, July 1984

Functional Aggregation and MRMATE Formulation, Technical Report bySchool of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute ofTechnology, Atlanta, Georgia, April 1986

User's Manual for Force Analysis Simulation of TheaterAdministrative and Logistic Support (FASTALS) Model, DocumentationCAA-D-83-4, May 1984

Model for Intertheater Deployment by Air and Sea (MIDAS), User's '

Manual, General Research Corporation, January 1984

Models and Concepts: System Closure Optimization Planning andEvaluation (SCOPE), Technical Report by School of Industrial and .-. ,;Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia,June 1983

MODES (Model), Subsystem Specification, Volume 1, Joint DeploymentAgency, September 1985

MODES (Model), Subsystem Specification, Volume 2, Joint DeploymentAgency, September 1985

Network Aggregation Concepts, Technical Report by School ofIndustrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology,Atlanta, Georgia, April 1985 ,* ,,

Rapid Intertheater Deployment Simulation (RAPIDSIM) Model, User's .%

Manual (Draft Version), Joint Data Systems Support Center, September1985

SEACOP: Algorithm Description for the SEACOP Scheduler Subsystem,Mantech International Corp., September 1985

Scenario Unrestricted Mobility Model for Intratheater Simulation(SUMMITS), User's Manual (Draft Version), General Research Corporation,January 1984 _

Simulation for Transportation Analysis and Planning (SITAP) User'sManual (Draft Version), Command and Control Technical Center, September1977 .'

C-1

CAA-SR-87-11 A

TAC Thunder Lift, Stand-Alone Logistics User's Manual, CACI, Inc.- .Federal, July 1986

Transportation Model Comparison (TRAC), Technical Paper CAA-TP-85-6,May 1985 (SECRET)

TRANSMO User's Manual Addendum, Documentation CAA-D-83-8, November1983

Transportation Model (TRANSMO) Software Documentation, User'sManual, Documentation CAA-D-83-1, January 1983

, ',

"C-- 2-

) w ,,[. -, , € - ,,',- ,- -'.-" '-" . € w.-' , ,-

,"."," " ," -¢ -.- w- .- - .,,- ,, . .- , -,-.-. *. .- 4".

CAA-SR-87-11

APPENDIX D

'- '0DISTRIBUIONr

No of

Addressee copies

Deputy Chief of Staff for Logistics 1.AHeadquarters, Department of the ArmyATTN: DALO-ZAWashington, DC 20310

Deputy Chief of Staff for Logistics 1Headquarters, Department of the ArmyATTN: DALO-PLFWashington, DC 20310

Commander 1US Army Logistics CenterFort Lee, VA 23801

Deputy Under Secretary of the Army(Operations Research) 1

Washington, DC 20310

Director 1US Army TRADOC Analysis CenterWhite Sands Missile Range, NM 88002

DirectorUS Army Materiel Systems Analysis

ActivityAberdeen Proving Ground, MD 21005-5071

Commander 1Army Research Institute5001 Eisenhower AvenueAlexandria, VA 22333

D'-

D-1

CAA-SR-87-11

No ofAddressee copies

" I

CommanderUS Army Logistics Evaluation AgencyNew Cumberland Army DepotNew Cumberland, PA 17070

DirectorDefense Logistics Studies Information

ExchangeUS Army Logistics Management CenterFort Lee, VA 23801 -w,

Defense Technical Information Center 2ATTN: DTIC-DDACameron StationAlexandria, VA 22314-6145

The Pentagon Library (Army Studies 1Section) . "

ATTN: ANRAL-RSThe PentagonWashington, DC 20310

PresidentNational Defense UniversityATTN: NDU-LD-CDC ,Washington, DC 20319-6000

Commander 1US Military Traffic Management

CommandATTN: MT-OPC5611 Columbia PikeFalls Church, VA 22041-5050 : :"

0-2I--

°

'f

CAA-SR-87-11

No ofAddressee copies

CINC, US REOCOMATTN: RCSTA

,~.

Mac~ill Air Force Base, FL 33608-6001

Internal Distribution: '-

Unclassified Library 2

F %

D-3 *

CAA-SR-87-11

GLOSSARY

ABBREVIATIONS, ACRONYMS, AND SHORT TERMS

AFPDA Army Force Planning Data and Assumptions

ASMSA Army Strategic Mobility System Assessment

APOD aerial port of debarkation

APOE aerial port of embarkation

ASP ammunition supply point

CAA US Army Concepts Analysis Agency

CAMP Computer Assisted Match Program

CFAM Contingency Force Analysis Methodology

CONUS Continental United States

CS/CSS Combat Support/Combat Service Support

EEA Essential Elements of Analysis

FAS force tape

FASTALS Force Analysis Simulation of Theater Administrativeand Logistic Support (model)

FORP first destination reporting point 41

FORCEM Force Evaluation Model

GRC General Research Corporation

GSU general support unit

JCS Joint Chiefs of Staff

JDA Joint Deployment Agency

JPAM Joint Program Assessment Memorandum -,

KEE Knowledge Engineering Environment (Intellicorppropiertary software)

LAD latest arrival date

LOTS logistics over the shore

MAC Military Airlift Command

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CAA-SR-87- 11

MAPS Mobilization Asset Planning System

MIDAS Model for Intertheater Deployment by Air and Sea

MMC Materiel Management Center

MOB mobilization ".'

MODES Mode Optimization and Delivery Estimation System

MSC Military Sealift Command

MTMC Military Traffic Management Command

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NICP national inventory control point " "

ODCSLOG Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Logistics

ODCSOPS Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operationsand Plans

OMNIBUS US Army Operational Readiness Analysis i ""

OSO Office of the Secretary of Defense

PAX passenger(s)

PFT Program Force Type Unit Characteristics File .

POMCUS prepositioning of materiel configured to unit setsPOO port of debarkation-

POE port of embarkation

POR processing overseas replacements for movement

PSM professional staff month(s)

RAPIDSIM Rapid Intertheater Deployment Simulation

ROD required delivery date

SEACOP Strategic Sealift Contingency Planning System . ,

SIMKIT Intellicorp proprietary software

SITAP Simulation for Transportation Analysis and Planning

SPOD seaport of debarkationGsr.f

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CAA-SR-87-11

SPOE seaport of embarkation

SRA Support Requirements Analysis A

STRATMOB strategic mobility

SUMMITS Scenario Unrestricted Mobility Model for N-Intratheater Simulation % %

SWA Southwest Asia

TOE table of organization and equipment .,.-

TPFDD Time-Phased Force Deployment Data

TRANSMO Transportation Model

TUCHA Type Unit Characteristics File NY

UIC unit identity code

UE unit equipment

UFSS Ultra Fast Sealift Study

USAF United States Air Force

WWMCCS Worldwide Military Command and Control System

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