Post on 21-May-2020
2016 UK GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, PROVISIONAL FIGURES
Statistical Release: National Statistics
30 March 2017
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Executive Summary
Contents
Executive Summary ___________________________________________________ 3
Introduction __________________________________________________________ 5
2016 annual provisional emissions results __________________________________ 7
Energy Supply _____________________________________________________ 10
Residential ________________________________________________________ 12
Transport _________________________________________________________ 13
Business __________________________________________________________ 13
Industrial process ___________________________________________________ 14
Public sector _______________________________________________________ 14
Agriculture; waste management; and land use, land use change and forestry _____ 14
Carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type _____________________________________ 15
2016 temperature adjusted provisional emissions results by sector _______________ 17
Additional Information __________________________________________________ 19
Coverage of emissions reporting _______________________________________ 19
Basis of the provisional emissions estimates ______________________________ 19
Quarterly totals _____________________________________________________ 20
Temperature adjustment ______________________________________________ 20
Revisions to the quarterly provisional emissions estimates ___________________ 20
Future updates to emissions estimates __________________________________ 21
Further information __________________________________________________ 21
Background notes ___________________________________________________ 21
3
Executive Summary
This publication provides the latest estimates of 1990-2016 UK greenhouse gas emissions
which are presented in carbon dioxide equivalent units throughout this statistical release.
Key findings
The provisional emissions figures rely on estimates of carbon dioxide emissions based on
UK energy statistics. In 2016, UK net emissions of carbon dioxide were provisionally
estimated to be 374.1 million tonnes (Mt), 7.4 per cent lower than the 2015 figure of 403.8
Mt. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas, accounting for over 81 per cent of
total UK greenhouse gas emissions.
This decrease in emissions was mainly caused by:
Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions in the energy supply sector, down 18.7 per
cent (25.4 MtCO2e) driven by a large decrease in power station emissions due to a
change in the fuel mix for electricity generation, with less use of coal (as a result of
reduced capacity and conversion of a unit at Drax to biomass) and increased use of
gas.
A decrease of 10.3 per cent (7.1 MtCO2e) in the business sector, driven by a
reduction in emissions from manufactured solid fuels, following the closure of SSI
steelworks at Redcar in September 2015.
Total carbon dioxide emissions on a temperature adjusted basis for 2016 were 378.2 Mt,
1.0 per cent higher than actual emissions. This reflects the fact that temperatures in 2016
were slightly higher than the long term average.
The sectoral breakdowns for provisional emissions are based on the source of the
emissions. Emissions related to electricity generation are therefore attributed to power
stations, the source of these emissions, rather than homes and businesses where
electricity is used.
Executive Summary
4
Figure 1: Summary of key findings
The energy supply sector experienced the largest reduction in CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2016
2016 temperature adjusted greenhouse gas emissions were higher than actual emissions
2016 UK greenhouse gas emissions provisionally estimated to decrease from 2015
2015 (p) estimates are provisional
Total Greenhouse Gas emissions Carbon dioxide emissions
2015-2016 % change
1990-2016
% change
42%
6%
7%
37%
Temperature adjusted emissions estimates remove the effect of external temperatures Figures are annual totals including the preceding 4 quarters.
2015-2016 % change
Energy supply
Industrial process
Business
Transport
Residential
Public
19%
13%
10%
1%
4%
5%
1990-2016 % change
54%
46%
45%
1%
15%
37%
466
MtCO2e
374
MtCO2e
Reduction in energy supply CO2 emissions driven by change in fuel mix for electricity generation in 2016, with less use of coal and more use of nuclear and renewables
Higher temperature adjusted emissions reflects
the fact that temperatures in 2016 were slightly
warmer than the long term average
0.4°C
0.4°C
2015 annual average temperature warmer than long term average by 2016 annual average temperature warmer than long
term average by
Rere
Reduction in emissions mainly due to decrease in the use of coal for electricity generation
Introduction
5
Introduction
This publication provides provisional annual and quarterly estimates of UK greenhouse
gas emissions by source sector for 2016. This publication also provides an estimate of
temperature adjusted emissions, which give an idea of overall trends in emissions without
fluctuations due to changes in external temperature.
Data for 1990-2015 are consistent with the annual emissions presented in the National
Statistics publication ‘2015 Final UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions statistics’. Data for 2016
emissions are provisional and are calculated based on UK energy statistics.
The provisional estimates of carbon dioxide emissions are based on provisional inland
energy consumption statistics, which are being published at the same time in DECC’s
quarterly Energy Trends publication. Estimates of non-CO2 gases are based on a simple
approach which assumes that emissions of non-CO2 gases in 2016 will be the same as
emissions in 2015, and that these emissions will be spread evenly over the year.
Quarterly emissions estimates are presented as a moving annual total up to a particular
quarter. For example when quarterly emissions are presented as up to quarter 4, 2016,
this represent an annual total comprising the latest quarter (quarter 4 2016) and the
preceding 3 quarters (quarters 1, 2 and 3 of 2016). Presenting the data in this way has
some advantages over presenting data for single quarters, since seasonal fluctuations are
smoothed out and long term trends highlighted. Data on emissions in individual quarters
are available in the Excel spread sheet data tables published alongside this publication.
There are uncertainties associated with all estimates of greenhouse gas emissions.
Although for any given year considerable uncertainties may surround the emissions
estimates for a pollutant, it is important to note that trends over time are likely to be much
more reliable. It is also important to note that the provisional 2016 estimates are subject to
a greater range of uncertainty than the final figures for earlier years. For more information
on uncertainties see the annex published alongside the 2015 Final UK Greenhouse Gas
Emissions statistics.
Introduction
6
For the purposes of reporting, greenhouse gas emissions are allocated into sectors as
follows:
Energy supply
Business
Transport
Public
Residential
Agriculture
Industrial process
Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF)
Waste management
These high-level sectors are made up of a number of more detailed sectors, which follow
the definitions set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and
which are used in international reporting tables which are submitted to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) every year.
The provisional estimates are not used for any formal reporting of how the UK is
performing against its emissions reduction targets, as this requires final estimates based
on the UK’s greenhouse gas inventory. However, these statistics give policy makers and
other users an initial steer as to the trend in emissions between 2015 and 2016, which
helps them to form an initial assessment of the extent to which the UK is on track to meet
targets. For information on UK emissions targets and progress towards them, see the
2015 Final UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions statistics.
More information about the underlying methodology for the quarterly emissions statistics
can be found in the accompanying methodology document.
Note that all 2016 greenhouse gas emissions and energy statistics figures in this statistics
release are provisional and subject to change. The annual provisional emissions estimates
will be subject to revision when the final estimates are published in February 2018;
however, they provide an early indication of emissions in the most recent full calendar
year. The majority of provisional estimates in the past have been within 2 per cent of the
final figures.
2016 annual provisional emissions results
7
2016 annual provisional emissions results
In 2016, an estimated 30 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions were from the energy
supply sector, 32 per cent from transport, 16 per cent from business and 18 per cent from
the residential sector.
Between 2015 and 2016, provisional estimates indicate that carbon dioxide emissions
decreased by 7.4 per cent (29.8 million tonnes (Mt)). Emissions in the energy supply
sector decreased by 18.7 per cent (25.4 Mt), driven by a change in the fuel mix for
electricity generation, with less use of coal (as a result of reduced capacity and conversion
of a unit at Drax to biomass) and increased use of gas. Business sector emissions
decreased by 10.0 per cent (7.1 Mt) due to a reduction in the use of manufactured solid
fuels following the closure of SSI steelworks at Redcar in September 2015. Emissions
increased by 4.5 per cent (2.8 Mt) in the residential sector due to an increase in the use of
natural gas for space heating, and there was also a small increase of 0.9 per cent in
emissions from the transport sector.
Since 1990, UK carbon dioxide emissions have decreased by 37 per cent. This decrease
has resulted mainly from changes in the mix of fuels being used for electricity generation,
including the growth of renewables, together with greater efficiency resulting from
improvements in technology and a decline in the relative importance of energy intensive
industries. Overall energy consumption is provisionally estimated to have decreased by
around 10 per cent since 1990 (although it increased up to 2001 and has decreased since
then). If this figure is adjusted to allow for the effect of temperature, energy consumption
has fallen by around 13 per cent between 1990 and 2016.
2016 annual provisional emissions results
8
Table 1: UK Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2016, headline results
UK, 1990-2016 MtCO2e
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 (p)
Energy supply 242.1 210.0 203.3 218.7 196.6 136.4 110.9 from power stations 202.9 162.7 158.0 172.7 156.9 102.9 77.9
other Energy supply 39.2 47.3 45.3 46.0 39.8 33.5 33.1
Business 111.6 108.7 108.8 96.9 78.4 68.6 61.5
Transport 119.2 119.4 124.5 128.8 119.0 118.8 119.8
Public 13.4 13.2 12.1 11.1 9.7 8.1 8.5
Residential 78.4 79.7 85.6 82.5 84.5 63.4 66.3
Agriculture 7.0 7.1 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.2 5.2
Industrial process 19.4 17.7 17.0 16.4 10.6 12.1 10.6
Waste management 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
LULUCF 3.2 0.6 -1.8 -5.2 -7.5 -8.9 -8.9
Total CO2 595.7 557.5 555.7 555.2 496.7 403.8 374.1
Other greenhouse gases 203.3 191.0 154.1 130.6 109.2 91.9 91.9
Total greenhouse gases 799.0 748.5 709.7 685.8 605.9 495.7 466.0
Source: Table 1, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables
Notes:
1. (p) 2016 estimates are provisional.
2. Provisional 2016 CO2 emissions for the agriculture, waste and LULUCF sectors are assumed to be the same as 2015 estimates as unlike other CO2 estimates these cannot be estimated from energy statistics.
3. The entire time series is revised each year to take account of methodological improvements in the UK emissions inventory.
4. Emissions are presented as carbon dioxide equivalent in line with international reporting and carbon trading. To convert carbon dioxide into carbon equivalents, divide figures by 44/12.
5. Figures shown do not include any adjustment for the effect of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which was introduced in 2005.
6. Totals for CO2 emissions, energy supply and total greenhouse gases may not sum due to rounding.
7. Estimates of non-CO2 gases are based on a simple approach which assumes that emissions of non-CO2 gases in 2016 will be the same as emissions in 2015.
2016 annual provisional emissions results
9
Figure 2: Actual and temperature adjusted greenhouse gas emissions, UK, Year to Q1 2009 - Year to Q4 2016 (MtCO2e)
Source: Tables 3 & 4, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables
Note: 1. Figures are annual totals including the preceding 4 quarters.
2. From year to Q1 2016 onwards, figures include provisional data.
Both the non-adjusted and the temperature corrected series show a general decreasing
trend since 2009. On a temperature adjusted basis, emissions remained relatively flat
during the period between early 2010 and 2012, while non-adjusted emissions were much
more variable during this period, showing that much of the fluctuation in the non-adjusted
series can be attributed to changes in energy use due to varying external temperatures. In
particular, Q4 2010 was 2.4 degrees (Celsius) lower than the long term average, while
temperatures in Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 were 0.5 and 1.8 degrees (Celsius) lower than the
long term average.
During 2013, 2014 and 2015 both temperature adjusted and non-adjusted emissions have
fallen.
2016 annual provisional emissions results
10
Energy Supply
The energy supply sector was the largest contributor to the decrease in carbon dioxide
emissions between 2015 and 2016. Carbon dioxide emissions from this sector were
provisionally estimated to be 110.9 Mt in 2016, a decrease of 19 per cent (25.4 Mt)
compared to 2015.
Since 2015 emissions from power stations have decreased by 24 per cent, largely due to
changes to the fuel mix used at power stations for electricity generation. In particular there
was a 59 per cent decrease in coal use for generation (as a result of reduced capacity and
conversion of a unit at Drax to biomass) and an increase in use of gas. In 2016, carbon
dioxide emissions from power stations, at 77.9 Mt, accounted for a fifth of all carbon
dioxide emissions.
Looking at longer term trends, carbon dioxide emissions from the energy supply sector
were estimated to be around 54 per cent lower in 2016 than they were in 1990. This
decrease has resulted mainly from changes in the mix of fuels being used for electricity
generation, including fuel switching from coal to gas and the growth of renewables,
together with greater efficiency resulting from improvements in technology.
There has been an overall decline in the use of coal at power stations over the period
(particularly during the 1990s), accompanied by an overall increase in the use of gas,
which has a lower carbon content. Coal use in generation is estimated to have reduced by
85 per cent between 1990 and 2016.
Overall, emissions from electricity generation have decreased by 62 per cent since 1990,
despite final consumption of electricity being provisionally estimated to be around 13 per
cent higher in 2016 than in 1990 (although it peaked in 2005 and has decreased since
then).
2016 annual provisional emissions results
11
Figure 3: Fuel mix for UK electricity generation, UK, 1990-2016, (Million tonnes of oil equivalent)
Source: Table 5.1.1, Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES) 1970-2015 and Table 5.1 Energy Trends: March 2017 Excel data tables
Note: (p) 2016 estimates are provisional.
Figure 4: Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation, UK, 1990-2016, (MtCO2)
Source: Tables 1 & 2, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables
Note: (p) 2016 estimates are provisional.
2016 annual provisional emissions results
12
Figure 5: Carbon dioxide emissions from power stations compared to carbon dioxide emissions from
other sectors, UK, 1990-2016, (MtCO2)
Source: Table 1, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables
Note: (p) 2016 estimates are provisional.
Residential
In 2016, the residential sector, with emissions of 66.3 Mt, accounted for 18 per cent of all
carbon dioxide emissions. Between 2015 and 2016 there was a 4.5 per cent (2.8 Mt)
increase in emissions from this sector. Whilst the average temperature for both years was
similar the months of November and December were both over 3 degrees Celsius cooler
on average when compared to the same months in 2015 which has contributed to an
increase in the use of natural gas for space heating.
The main source of emissions from this sector is the use of natural gas for heating and
cooking. Since 2004 there has been a general downward trend in emissions, although
2010 and 2012 were exceptions to this, due to the particularly cold weather experienced in
2010 and warm weather in 2011. In 2016, emissions from this sector were 15 per cent
lower than in 1990.
It should be noted that emissions from this sector do not include those related to domestic
electricity consumption, as these emissions are included in the energy supply sector.
2016 annual provisional emissions results
13
Transport
In 2016, carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector, at 119.8 Mt, accounted for 32
per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions. Between 2015 and 2016, transport emissions
increased by 0.9 per cent (1.0 Mt). Provisional motor vehicle traffic estimates show that
vehicle kilometres travelled increased in 20161 resulting in a higher use of fuel.
Emissions from this sector are similar to 1990 levels. Road transport is the most significant
source of emissions in this sector, in particular passenger cars. Emissions from passenger
cars have decreased since the early 2000s due to lower petrol consumption outweighing
an increase in diesel consumption2 and, more recently, improvements in fuel efficiency of
both petrol and diesel cars3. However, this decrease has been partially offset by an
increase in emissions from light goods vehicles.
It should be noted that these estimates do not include emissions from international aviation
and shipping; domestic aviation and shipping, however, are included.
Business
Carbon dioxide emissions from the business sector, at 61.5 Mt, accounted for around 16
per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions in 2016. This was 10.3 per cent (7.1 Mt) lower
than in 2015, largely due to a reduction the use of manufactured solid fuels following the
closure of SSI steelworks at Redcar in September 2015.
There has been a 45 per cent decrease in business sector emissions since 1990. Most of
this decrease came between 2001 and 2009, with a significant drop in 2009 likely driven
by economic factors. The main driver of the overall decrease in emissions since 1990 is a
reduction in emissions from industrial combustion (including iron and steel).
1 Provisional Road Traffic estimates, Great Britain: January 2015 to December 2015
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/provisional-road-traffic-estimates-great-britain-january-2016-to-december-2016 2 Transport Statistics Great Britain, Energy and environment (TSGB03), Table TSGB0301 (ENV0101) Petroleum consumption by
transport mode and fuel type: United Kingdom, 2000-2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-statistics-great-britain-2016 3 Transport Statistics Great Britain, Energy and environment (TSGB03), Table TSGB0301 (ENV0103) Average new car fuel
consumption: Great Britain 1997-2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/tsgb03
2016 annual provisional emissions results
14
Industrial process
In 2016, carbon dioxide emissions from the industrial process sector were estimated to be
10.6 Mt, a decrease of 13.0 per cent (1.5 Mt) compared with 2015. Between 1990 and
2016, emissions from this sector are estimated to have decreased by around 46 per cent
driven by a reduction in emissions from cement production due to lower manufacturing
output from this sector.
Public sector
Carbon dioxide emissions from the public sector, at 8.5 Mt, were estimated to have
increased by about 5.2 per cent (0.4 Mt) from 2015 emissions. This has been largely
driven by an increase in the use of gas for space heating as a result of 2016 being a cooler
year than 2015. Between 1990 and 2016, emissions from this sector are estimated to have
decreased by around 37 per cent.
Agriculture; waste management; and land use, land use change and forestry
Updated emissions estimates for these sectors are not yet available for 2016, so for these
statistics, emissions from these sectors are assumed to be the same as they were in
20154.
4 Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/final-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics
Carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type
15
Carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type
The amount of carbon dioxide released by the consumption of one unit of energy depends
on the type of fuel consumed. For example, since coal has a higher carbon content than
gas, more carbon dioxide emissions result from burning one unit of coal than from one unit
of gas.
Emissions per unit of electricity supplied by major power producers from fossil fuels are
estimated to have been around 440 tonnes of carbon dioxide per gigawatt hour (GWh)
overall in 2016; within this, emissions from electricity generated from coal (880 tonnes of
carbon dioxide per GWh electricity supplied) were over two times higher than for electricity
supplied by gas (330 tonnes of carbon dioxide per GWh). For all sources of electricity
(including nuclear, renewables and autogeneration), the average amount of carbon dioxide
emitted in 2016 amounted to around 220 tonnes per GWh of electricity supplied.
In 2016, carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, including fuel used for
generating electricity, were estimated at 365.9 Mt. This was 8 per cent lower than the 2015
figure of 395.6 Mt. The biggest change in emissions was from the use of coal, down 39.3
Mt (54 per cent) from 72.7 Mt in 2015 to 33.4 Mt in 2016. This largely resulted from a
change in the fuel mix for electricity generation, with less use of coal (as a result of
reduced capacity and conversion of a unit at Drax to biomass) and increased use of gas.
Over the period 1990 to 2016, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels decreased by 36
per cent. Over the same period, overall primary consumption of fossil fuels has dropped by
around 20 per cent. The relatively higher decrease in emissions can be attributed to an
increase in the use of gas accompanied by a decrease in the use of coal and other solid
fuels; carbon dioxide emissions from gas as a proportion of all carbon dioxide emissions
from fossil fuels has increased from 24 per cent in 1990 to 48 per cent in 2016, whilst
emissions from coal as a proportion of all fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions has
decreased from 37 per cent to 9 per cent over the same period. The proportion of carbon
dioxide emissions from oil has remained relatively stable over the period at around a third
of emissions.
Carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type
16
Table 2: UK Carbon dioxide emissions by fuel UK, 1990-2016
MtCO2e
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 (p)
Gas 145.9 188.5 241.5 235.4 228.4 171.8 181.4
Oil 191.6 179.6 168.1 170.2 150.7 143.8 144.6
Coal 219.2 152.0 117.0 124.9 100.9 72.7 33.4
Other solid fuels 14.1 13.3 11.5 10.1 8.9 7.3 6.5
Non-fuel 24.9 24.0 17.6 14.6 7.8 8.2 8.2
Total 595.7 557.5 555.7 555.2 496.7 403.8 374.1
Source: Table 2, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables
Note: (p) 2016 estimates are provisional.
Figure 6: Carbon dioxide emissions by fossil fuels, UK, 1990-2016, (MtCO2)
Source: Table 2, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables
Note: (p) 2016 estimates are provisional.
2016 temperature adjusted provisional emissions results by sector
17
2016 temperature adjusted provisional emissions results by sector
A temperature adjustment has been applied to the quarterly CO2 emissions, in order to
estimate what the overall trend of emissions would have been without the impact of
external temperatures. Table 3 compares temperature adjusted and unadjusted quarterly
CO2 emissions by sector.
Table 3: Actual and temperature adjusted Carbon dioxide emissions by sector
UK, Year to Q4 2016
MtCO2
Total CO2
emissions
Temperature adjusted CO2
emissions
Difference
(MtCO2)
Difference
(%)
Energy supply 110.9 112.2 1.2 1.1%
Business 61.5 62.1 0.6 1.0%
Transport 119.8 119.8 0.0 0.0%
Public 8.5 8.7 0.2 2.0%
Residential 66.3 68.4 2.1 3.2%
Other 7.1 7.1 0.0 0.0%
Total CO2 374.1 378.2 4.1 1.1%
Source: Tables 3 & 4, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables
Note: 1. Figures for “Total CO2” and “Difference” may be different to the sum of those presented in the table due to rounding.
The sectors most influenced by temperature are residential and energy supply. With
respect to the residential sector in particular, if temperatures increase there is a decrease
in demand for space heating, resulting in a decrease in emissions. The reverse is true if
temperatures decrease.
Figures 7 and 8 below show the trend for these two sectors. Temperature adjusted
emissions from the energy supply sector show a similar trend to non-adjusted emissions.
2016 temperature adjusted provisional emissions results by sector
18
Figure 7: Actual and temperature adjusted energy supply CO2 emissions, UK, Year to Q1 2009 - Year
to Q4 2016 (MtCO2)
Source: Tables 3 & 4, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables
In the residential sector, the difference between actual and temperature adjusted emissions is much more noticeable than in other sectors, reflecting the fact that this is the sector in which energy consumption and emissions are most sensitive to external temperatures. On a temperature adjusted basis, residential emissions have remained relatively flat since 2009, while the trend for non-adjusted emissions is much more variable over the same time period. Temperature adjusted emissions in the residential sector have decreased by around 6 per cent compared to the year to Q1 2009, while non-adjusted emissions have decreased by around 18 per cent over the same period.
Figure 8: Actual and temperature adjusted residential emissions, UK, Year to Q1 2009 - Year to Q4
2016 (MtCO2)
Source: Tables 3 & 4, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables
Additional Information
19
Additional Information
Coverage of emissions reporting
The basket of greenhouse gases covered by these statistics is based on that covered by
the Kyoto Protocol, and consists of seven gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride. The
last four gases are collectively referred to as fluorinated gases or F gases. In accordance
with international reporting and carbon trading protocols, each of these gases is weighted
by its global warming potential (GWP), so that total greenhouse gas emissions can be
reported on a consistent basis. The GWP for each gas is defined as its warming influence
relative to that of carbon dioxide. Greenhouse gas emissions are then presented in carbon
dioxide equivalent units.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is reported in terms of net emissions, which means total emissions
from burning fuel minus total removals of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by carbon
sinks. Carbon sinks are incorporated within the land use, land use change and forestry
(LULUCF) sector, which covers afforestation, reforestation, deforestation and forest
management. They are defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) as “any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse
gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere”.
Unless otherwise stated, any figures included in this release represent emissions from
within the UK and excludes its Crown Dependencies (Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of
Man) and overseas territories. Figures are expressed in millions of tonnes of carbon
dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e).
Basis of the provisional emissions estimates
The estimates of carbon dioxide emissions have been produced based on provisional
inland energy consumption statistics which are published in DECC’s quarterly Energy
Trends publication.
Carbon dioxide accounts for the majority of UK greenhouse gas emissions (82 per cent in
2015). However, in order to give an indication of what the latest provisional carbon dioxide
emissions estimates imply for the total, we need to also produce an estimate of emissions
of the remaining non-CO2 gases. Estimates of non-CO2 gases are based on a simple
approach which assumes that emissions of non-CO2 gases in 2016 will be the same as
emissions in 2015, and that these emissions will be spread evenly over the year.
Additional Information
20
Quarterly totals
In order to remove the seasonality in the data so that a trend in emissions over time can
be observed, quarterly emissions are reported as annual totals, covering the stated quarter
plus the preceding three quarters. When data becomes available for each new quarter, the
estimates for the latest quarter are added to the total, while at the same time the estimates
for the same quarter from the previous year are removed from the series. This procedure
serves to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlights long term trends, and can be
used to show the underlying trend each quarter. Emissions estimates for each individual
quarter are reported in the data tables accompanying this publication.
Temperature adjustment
Carbon dioxide emissions are indirectly influenced by external temperatures. During the
winter months, emissions are generally higher than in summer months, due to higher
demand for fuel for space heating. During a particularly cold winter for example, it is likely
that more fuel will be burnt for domestic or commercial use than during an average winter,
and therefore emissions will be higher due to the additional fuel consumption.
Temperature adjusted quarterly emissions estimates therefore remove the effect of
external temperatures. In a particularly cold winter quarter, for example, this will result in
temperature adjusted emissions being lower than actual emissions, reflecting the lower
fuel consumption which would have occurred if temperatures had been at average levels
(based on the 30 year period 1981-2010). The temperature adjustment to emissions has
been applied for the months from September to April inclusive; in any given calendar year,
it will therefore be applied in the period from January to April, and then again from
September to December. Temperature adjustment is determined by the average number
of heating degree days in each quarter. This information can be found in Energy Trends.
Further details of how quarterly emissions have been estimated and of the methodology
underlying the temperature adjusted estimates can be found alongside this statistical
release in a separate methodology summary.
Revisions to the quarterly provisional emissions estimates
It should be noted that the quarterly emissions time series may be revised annually reflect
any revisions made to either the underlying energy data or to the UK greenhouse gas
inventory. Emissions from 2009-2015 are consistent with final UK greenhouse gas
emissions statistics from 1990-2015. Emissions estimates for 2016 are provisional and are
based on UK energy statistics. More information on the timing of revisions to the
underlying data can be found in the methodology summary.
Additional Information
21
Future updates to emissions estimates
Final estimates of UK greenhouse gas emissions for 2016 will be published as National
Statistics on 6th February 2018. These estimates will be based on the UK’s Greenhouse
Gas Inventory for 2016.
Provisional estimates help us to understand the latest trend in emissions, and will provide
an early indication of this trend ahead of the final annual figures being available from our
greenhouse gas emissions inventory. We recommend that users look at this trend rather
than any absolute figures.
It is important to note that these figures are based on provisional energy data and are
subject to change. The sectoral breakdown is given mainly for information, and is included
in the publication for completeness, but sectoral estimates are more uncertain than the
total.
Further information
Further information on UK greenhouse gas emissions statistics, including Excel tables with
additional data on UK emissions, can be found on the Gov.uk website at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-statistics
The latest UK energy statistics, including revisions to earlier years’ data, can be found in
the Energy Trends quarterly bulletin produced by BEIS. Any enquiries about the Energy
Trends report should be sent to energyefficiency.stats@beis.gov.uk.
Background notes
1. A full set of data tables can be accessed via the Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics pages of the Gov.uk website.
2. The background quality report provides a summary of quality issues relating to statistics on UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
3. The latest UK energy statistics, including revisions to earlier years’ data, can be found in the 2016 Digest of UK Energy Statistics.
4. Detailed UK temperature data can be found on both the Met Office website and the Weather Statistics section of the Gov.uk website.
5. When emissions are measured on this basis, UK emissions account for less than 2 per cent of the global total, based on a range of estimates produced by the UN, the IEA, the World Resources Institute and the EIA, amongst others.
Additional Information
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