Iran – Hezbollah

A Persian Journey?A Shia Journey?

A Crusade against Colonialism?

Graeme GoldsworthyTeam Coach, Pax Ludens

October 2009

Iran as Persia

Early encounters with the ‘Barbarian’ west

Marathon 492 BC

Thermopylae 480BC

Alexander the Great

Persia has her first taste of Western Civilisation

More Recently

Seleucid successorsIndependent of Roman

EmpireOttoman resistance

British Influence from India, Oil factor

WW2 divisionsPost WW2

1953

1979Two key factors converge

Iranian Revolution Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

Iran – Iraq War1980-1988 (1)

US proxy conflictResource basedTerritorialSecular - Theocratic

Iran – Iraq War1980-1988 (2)

War of the CitiesUse of WMDTanker WarMartyrdom of the SephahIsolation of Iran

The 1980sIran begins the return to the Mediterranean coast

Chaos of Lebanese Civil WarEffectively replace PLORally and recruit Shia in LebanonBuilds HezbollahSephah Pasadaran-e trg cadresSpectacular attacks, kidnappingsEffective resistance to US, IsraelUndermines SLA …..By 2000, forces Israel from South

Lebanon

2006 and the (Re) Capture of Tyre

Hezbollah controls Tyre

‘Our’Iranians

ExilesWesternised2nd and 3rd generationStudentsDecadent

‘Their’ Iranians

1979 – Class system invertedLaatsBasij

The Private societyOpium culture

Attitudes

Use of languageUse of rhetoricVisual displaysDemonstrations

Privacy

Negotiation

Iran does not negotiate unless negotiation is deployed as a weapon

Gholov(Superior)

Extreme rhetoric, boasting, bombastic……

…macho behaviour“I want to fuck your sister”

“Death to America”

Ta’arouf(Inferior)

Insulting an opponent using extremes of modest

language and gestures

Holocaust denial…“I do not believe such a

thing could be perpetrated by such a

civilised people”

Iranian Long term ambitions

Establish hegemony in Middle EastEstablish Shia ascendancy over that hegemonyLead the counter forces to Western ColonialismEject West from the regionControl Resources

Short – Medium term goals

Subvert LebanonShia convert southern SyriaDestabilise Saudi ArabiaRearm conventional forcesMaintain progress toward nuclear statusIncrease influence in AfghanistanCompletely control the Straights of Hormuz

The Sepah Pasadaran-e InqilabThe Revolutionary Guard Corps

Defenders of the Revolution and the State

Laats and BasijsWorking and religious classes

Quds (Jerusalem) ForceHezbollah

Hamas

Iran and Hezbollah

HezbollahIran’s military, political, social and economic proxy in the

Lebanon

Iranian supplied missile ranges

The Players

Iran

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Manoucheher Mottaki

Ali Vahidi

Hezbollah

Hassan Nasrallah

Sheikh Naim Kassam

Individual Role Profile (IRP)

• Biography (who is this person, in depth)• Function (Political, Military role)• Mandate• External Position and Internal Position• Friends and Enemies• Supporters• Agenda (and Secret Agenda)• Active / Passive• Quotes

Team Profile and Strategies

Historical backgroundDiplomatic relationsEconomic relationsMilitary relationsState InformationPolitical organisationGeographical, Economic and

Demographic dataMilitary data (ORBATs)Flags and emblems(Agenda and Secret Agenda)

And one final tip for negotiating Iran – Hezbollah

style….- Shia Islam is above all a Political Religion

- Islam forbids lying- Politicians lie…….Thus the concept of;

‘Taghiyeh’

One may lie, sanctioned by God in order to protect the life of the believer (and conceal one’s faith)

There is only one god

Iran is Hezbollah and Hezbollah is Iran

Q and A