Post on 08-Aug-2018
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SUCCESS STORIES
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People are our most
valuable asset is a clich,
which no member of any
senior management teamwould disagree with. Yet, the
reality for many
organizations are that their
people remain under valued,
under trained and under
utilized.
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Performance Appraisal is the
process of assessing the
performance and progress of an
employee or a group of
employees on a given job and his
/ their potential for futuredevelopment. It consists of all
formal procedures used in the
working organizations to
evaluate personalities,contributions and potentials of
employees.
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Hen
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To provide world class State-of-art technology telecom
services to its
customers on demand at competitive prices.
To Provide world class telecom infrastructure in itsarea of operation and to
contribute to the growth.
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Climate Changeand Global Warming
Debunking Common Misconceptions
Climate predictability
Climate forcing
Climate modelsEmission scenarios & climate of the 21st century
Responding to Climate Skeptics
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Concern about global warming is based on recent temperaturetrends
9 of the 10 hottest years on record
If somebody could find some other cause for recent warming, wecould quit worrying
Global warming is a theory based on complicated computermodels
CO2is air pollution cutting emissions will lead to falling CO2and therefore cooling
If we stop burning coal, well freeze in the dark!
Media Myths about ClimateBe skeptical be very skeptical !
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Global Warming isBased on Common Sense
not computer models not recent temperatures
not complicated!
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Energy In = Energy Out
Planetary Energy Balance
2 2 4(1 ) 4S R R T
o18 CT
But the observed Ts is about 15 C
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Nearly all of the air is made
of oxygen (O2) and nitrogen(N2) in which two atoms ofthe same element shareelectrons
Infrared (heat) energyradiated up from the surfacecan be absorbed by thesemolecules, but not very well
Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays!
N N
O O
Diatomic molecules can
vibrate back and forthl ike balls on a spring, but
the ends are identical
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) and
water vapor (H2O) aredifferent!
They have many more ways
to vibrate and rotate, so theyare very good at absorbingand emitting infrared (heat)radiation
Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays!
Molecules that have manyways to wiggle are called
Greenhouse molecules
O OC
H H
O
Absorption spectrum of CO2 was measured by John Tyndall in 1863
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Doubling CO2 would add4 watts to every squaremeterof the surface ofthe Earth, 24/7
Doing that would make
the surface warmer This was known before
light bulbs were invented!
Common Sense
4 Watts
John Tyndall , January 1863
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Expectations of future warming are based on extrapolation of recent warming trends
Common Misconception #1
WRONG! They are based on the idea that whenwe add energy to the surface, it will warm up
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19th Century Climate Physics(Svante Arrhenius, 1897)
S0(1 )r2
TS4 (4r2 )
S0(1 ) 4TS4
0 4TS
4 4(4TS
4 )
Differentiate, apply chain rule
TS
TS
4
Ar rhenius worked out a simple formula
for the change in sur face temperature
given a change in effective
atmospher ic emissivity due to CO2
Earth
Ts
aS0
esTs4
S0
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Physics(contd)
Plug in measured values
TS TS
4
TS
4 240 W m-2
(from satellite data)
(
)(T
S
4
)
4 W m-2
(for 2 x CO2
from radiative transfer)
4
240
Ts = 288 K
TS
288K
4
4
240
1.2K
For CO2 alone (no feedback), expect about 2F warming for 2 x CO2
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Positive Feedbacks
(amplify changes) Water vapor
Ice-albedo
High clouds
Climate Feedback Processes
De DTS Dvapor
D albedo
DLW
D hi cloud
D lo cloud
Negative feedbacks
(damp changes) Longwave cooling Low clouds
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Learning from the Past
Past climate changes reveal climate sensitivity
B bbl P l
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Tiny Bubbles Priceless
ice age ice age ice ageice age
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Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO2 has variedbetween 180 and 280 ppm,beating in time with the lastfour glacial cycles
CO2 and the Ice Ages
370 ppm in 2000
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)
175
200
225
250
275
300
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
Year
iceice
ice
ice
CO2
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At the Last Glacial Maximum
(~ 18k years ago) surface temp ~ 6 C colder CO2 was ~ 180 ppm
(weaker greenhouse, 4.1 W m-2 more LW)
Brighter surface due to snow and ice, estimate
3.4 W m-2
more reflected solar
Estimating Total Climate Sensitivity
Or, for doubling of CO2: expect 4 x 0.8 = 3.2C of
T
S
FTS(now)T
S(then)
F(now
) F
(then
)
6K
(4.1 3.4)Wm2 0.8
K
Wm2
h
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Forcing: changes in properties of atmosphere asmeasured by spectroscopy
(4 W m-2 per doubling of CO2)
Feedback: both positive and negative, total response toforcing estimated from Ice Age climate data (about 0.8C per W m-2)
Response: about 3.2 C warming for 2 x CO2
Review: 19th Century Physics(updated using paleo-data)
No climate models required just based on observations
(modern calculations agree coincidence?)
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Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO2 has variedbetween 180 and 280 partsper million, beating in timewith the last four glacialcycles
Since the IndustrialRevolution, CO2 has risenvery rapidly
CO2 and the Modern Age
370 ppm in 2000
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)
180
230
280
330
380
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
year
ice iceiceice
CO2
388 ppm in 2009
f rom measurements
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Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO2 has variedbetween 180 and 280 partsper million, beating in timewith the last four glacialcycles
Since the IndustrialRevolution, CO2 has risenvery rapidly
If China & India developusing 19th Centurytechnology, CO2 will reach900 ppm in this century
CO2 and the Future
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
year
ice iceiceice
CO2
900 ppm in 2100
388 ppm in 2009
You aint seen nothing yet!
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Thank you!
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Nearly all of the air is made
of oxygen (O2) and nitrogen(N2) in which two atoms ofthe same element shareelectrons
Infrared (heat) energyradiated up from the surfacecan be absorbed by thesemolecules, but not very well
Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays!
N N
O O
Diatomic molecules can
vibrate back and forthl ike balls on a spring, but
the ends are identical
8/22/2019 1111 Success Stories-102
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) and
water vapor (H2O) aredifferent!
They have many more ways
to vibrate and rotate, so theyare very good at absorbingand emitting infrared (heat)radiation
Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays!
Molecules that have manyways to wiggle are called
Greenhouse molecules
O OC
H H
O
Absorption spectrum of CO2 was measured by John Tyndall in 1863
8/22/2019 1111 Success Stories-102
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Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO2 has variedbetween 180 and 280 ppm,beating in time with the lastfour glacial cycles
CO2 and the Ice Ages
370 ppm in 2000
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)
175
200
225
250
275
300
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
Year
iceice
ice
ice
CO2
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At the Last Glacial Maximum
(~ 18k years ago) surface temp ~ 6 C colder CO2 was ~ 180 ppm
(weaker greenhouse, 4.1 W m-2 more LW)
Brighter surface due to snow and ice, estimate
3.4 W m-2
more reflected solar
Estimating Total Climate Sensitivity
Or, for doubling of CO2: expect 4 x 0.8 = 3.2C of
T
S
FTS(now)T
S(then)
F(now
) F
(then
)
6K
(4.1 3.4)Wm2 0.8
K
Wm2
R i
th C t Ph i
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Forcing: changes in properties of atmosphere asmeasured by spectroscopy
(4 W m-2 per doubling of CO2)
Feedback: both positive and negative, total response toforcing estimated from Ice Age climate data (about 0.8C per W m-2)
Response: about 3.2 C warming for 2 x CO2
Review: 19th Century Physics(updated using paleo-data)
No climate models required just based on observations
(modern calculations agree coincidence?)
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Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO2 has variedbetween 180 and 280 partsper million, beating in timewith the last four glacialcycles
Since the IndustrialRevolution, CO2 has risenvery rapidly
CO2 and the Modern Age
370 ppm in 2000
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)
180
230
280
330
380
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
year
ice iceiceice
CO2
388 ppm in 2009
f rom measurements
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Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO2 has variedbetween 180 and 280 partsper million, beating in timewith the last four glacialcycles
Since the IndustrialRevolution, CO2 has risenvery rapidly
If China & India developusing 19th Centurytechnology, CO2 will reach900 ppm in this century
CO2 and the Future
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
year
ice iceiceice
CO2
900 ppm in 2100
388 ppm in 2009
You aint seen nothing yet!
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Thank you!