Post on 30-Dec-2015
1Figure 11 Multiplier effect
E
Y
E
0 Ye Ye’
Y-line
C* + I*
E
45o
E’
Y
2
The Multiplier(Parkin)
Real GDP (trillions of 1992 dollars)
Agg
rega
te e
xpen
ditu
re
(tri
llion
s of
199
2 do
llars
)
5
6
7
8
9
5 6 7 8 9
45o line
ab
c
d
e
e' AE0
…increasesreal GDP by$2 trillion
A $0.5 trillionincrease ininvestment...
AE1
a'
b'
c'
d'
0
3
The Multiplier Process (Parkin)
Expenditure roundIncrease in current round
Cumulative increase from previous rounds
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
4Figure 14 The movement of expenditure multiplier
E
Y
E
0 Ye Ye’
Y-line
45o
E’
Y1 Y2
Dr. Lam Pun Lee
Advanced LevelMicroeconomicsAdvanced Level
Macroeconomics
Previousslide
5
1. Calculate the equilibrium level of income.
AE = C + I
AE = 40 + 0.75Y
AE = Y in equilibrium
40 + 0.75Y = Y
Y = 160
2. If I is increased by 10, calculate the new equilibrium level of income.
AE = C + I = 50 + 0.75Y
AE = Y in equilibrium
50 + 0.75Y = Y
Y = 200
6
An autonomous change in investment by 10 induces a larger change (40)
in equilibrium level of income. Why is this so?
7
Autonomous change in I
Induced change in C
Change in YRounds of
effects
$10 - $101st
- $7.5 $7.52nd
- $5.625 $5.6253rd
- $4.21875 $4.218754th
- ... ...…
$10 $30 $40Total change:
8
The Multiplier Process (Miller)
Assumption: MPC = .8 or 4/5
Annual Increase Annual Increase Annual Increasein Real in Planned in Planned
National Income Consumption SavingRound ($ billions per year) ($ billions per year) ($ billions per year)
1 ($100 billion per year increase in I) 100.00 80.000 20.000
2 80.00 64.00 16.000
3 64.00 51.200 12.800
4 51.20 40.960 10.240
5 40.96 32.768 8.192
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
All later rounds 163.84 131.072 32.768
Totals 500.00 400.00 100.000
Slide 12-62
9
How does the MultiplierMultiplier work (P.13-7.2.2.2.)?
Any initial change in spending by the government, households, or firms creates a chain reaction of further spending
10
Y = $10 + $7.5 + $5.625 + …
= I + C + C + …
= I + cY + c2Y + …
= I + cI + c2I + …
= I (1 + c + c2 + …)
= I [1/(1-c)]
Multiplier (k) = Y / I = 1/(1-c)
11
One divided by one tenth equals 10
11.
.10
=
1 X10
1=
MULTIPLIER
10
12
If investment increases by $100, If investment increases by $100, with an MPC of 9/10, what effect with an MPC of 9/10, what effect will this have on the economy?will this have on the economy?
If investment increases by $100, If investment increases by $100, with an MPC of 9/10, what effect with an MPC of 9/10, what effect will this have on the economy?will this have on the economy?
The economy will grow by The economy will grow by $1,000 eventually$1,000 eventually
13
If investment declines by $100, If investment declines by $100, what’s the effect on the economy what’s the effect on the economy
with an MPC of 9/10?with an MPC of 9/10?
If investment declines by $100, If investment declines by $100, what’s the effect on the economy what’s the effect on the economy
with an MPC of 9/10?with an MPC of 9/10?The economy will shrink by
$1,000
14
Numerical example
I = 10
k = 1/(1-c) = 4
c = 0.75
Y = k I = 4*10 = 40
E = 50 + 0.75Y
0
E
Y
45 line
E = 40 + 0.75Y
160 200
15
Given: C = 20 + 0.75Y
I = 20 + 0.1Y
1. Calculate the change in Y resulted from an autonomous increase in I by $10.
2. Calculate the value of the multiplier.
16
AE = C + I
AE = 40 + 0.85Y
AE = Y in equilibrium
40 + 0.85Y = Y
Y = 266.67
1. Calculate the change in Y resulted from an autonomous increase in I by $10.
When I = 20 + 0.1Y, AE = C + I
AE = 50 + 0.85Y
AE = Y in equilibrium
50 + 0.85Y = Y
Y = 333.33
When I = 30 + 0.1Y,
Change in Y = 66.67
17
2. Calculate the value of the multiplier.
k = Change in Y / Change in I = 6.67
If I is an induced function, the size of the simple Keynesian multiplier will be greater. Why is this so?
18
Multiplier with induced I
1/mps-mpi
19
Figure 23-10 (Lipsey)
The Size of the Simple Multiplier
20
Relationship between MPC, MPS, and the Spending Multiplier
MPC
105
MPS
4
3
2
1.5
Spending Multiplier
.90
.80
.75
.67
.50
.33
.10
.20
.25
.33
.50
.67
21
Figure 12 The multiplier effects of autonomousdecrease in saving (= C rise)
0
E
Y
I
S
S’A
B
C
22
Figure 13 The multiplier effects of autonomousincrease in investment
0
E
Y
I
S
I’
A
B
C
23
3-Sector & 4-Sector Models
The simple Keynesian model discussed is a two-sector model, which includes only firms and households. In this section, we first add the government sector and then the foreign trade sector into our model. Lastly, we consider the concepts of aggregate demand and aggregate supply and how they are related with the Keynesian model.
Nextslide
24
Household
Financial markets
Firms
Figure 1 Three-sector national income model
National income
National expenditure
Incomegenerated
Payment for goods and service
C
S
I
E Y
Government GT
25
Factorpayments
Consumption ofdomestically
produced goodsand services (Cd)
BANKS, etc GOV.
Investment (I)Investment (I)
GovernmentGovernmentexpenditure (expenditure (GG))
NetNetsaving (S)saving (S)
NetNettaxes (T)taxes (T)
The circular flow of incomeThe circular flow of income
26Figure 2(d) Consumption function in an 3-sector
income-expenditure diagram
E
Y
C
a-cT*
0
Slope = c (1 – t)
27
Keynes and the Great Depression• Keynes argued that prices and wages are not
sufficiently flexible to ensure the full employment of resources
• Furthermore, Keynes argued that when resources (especially labor) are not fully employed (due to a lack of private investment expenditures), the government could provide offsetting expenditures as a means of stabilizing the economy
• Thus, Keynesian economics places emphasis on planned expenditures and all its components
28
What is the GDP Gap (P.16-7.2.5.4. & Wong 2000: 104)?
The difference between full employment real GDP and actual real GDP
29
What is the Recessionary AD Gap (P.16-7.2.5.4.)?
The amount by which aggregate expenditures fall short of the amount required to achieve full employment equilibrium
30Figure 2(a) Deflationary AD gap
E
Y
E
Y-line
Ye Yf0
G
R
DG
45o
31
The deflationary AD gap
OY
W
W, J
J
Ye
32
The deflationary AD gap
OY
W
W, J
J
YeYF
33
The deflationary AD gap
OY
W
W, J
J
YeYF
Deflationary AD gap
c
d
34
The deflationary AD gap
OY
W
W, J
J
YeYF
Deflationary AD gap
c
d
J*
35
What is the Keynesian Keynesian remedyremedy for a Recessionary AD Gap (P.16-7.2.5.5.)?
Increase autonomous spending by the amount of the recessionary AD gap
36
What can the Government doGovernment do to close a Recessionary AD Gap?• Increase government
spending• Lower taxes• Raise transfer payments
37
Exhibit 2: U.S. Federal Budget Deficits and Surplus Relative to GDP (P.17-7.2.6.1.2.)
Exhibit 2: U.S. Federal Budget Deficits and Surplus Relative to GDP (P.17-7.2.6.1.2.)
Source: Developed based on budget figures in Economic Report of the President, February 1999.
Per
cen
t o
f G
DP
–7
–6
–5
–4
–3
–2
–1
0
11975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Fiscal Year
1970
3Federal Budgets and Public Policy
38
What is an Inflationary AD Inflationary AD GapGap (P.16-7.2.5.4.)?
The amount by which aggregate expenditures exceed the amount required to achieve full employment equilibrium
39Figure 2(b) Inflationary AD gap
E
Y
E
Y-line
Yf0
F
GIG
Ye
45o
40
The inflationary AD gap
OY
W
W, J
Ye
J
41
The inflationary AD gap
OY
W
W, J
YeYF
J
42
The inflationary AD gap
OY
W
W, J
YeYF
g
h
Inflationary AD gap
J
43
The inflationary AD gap
OY
W
W, J
YeYF
g
h
Inflationary AD gap
JJ*
44
What is the Keynesian Keynesian remedyremedy for an Inflationary AD Gap (P.16-7.2.5.5.)?
Reduce autonomous spending by the amount of the inflationary AD gap
45
How can the GovernmentGovernment close an Inflationary AD Gap?
• Cut government spending• Increase taxes• Reduce transfer payments
46
9. Keynes’ criticism of the classical theory was that the Great Depression would not correct itself. The multiplier effect would restore an economy to full employment if
a. government would follow a “least government is the best government” policy.
b. government taxes were increased.c. government spending were increased.d. government spending were decreased.
c. Keynes’ prescription to cure the Great Depression was for government to play an active role rather than depend on the classical theory that the price system will eventually restore full employment.
47
10. The equilibrium level of real GDP is $1,000 billion, the full employment level of real GDP is $1,250 billion, and the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 0.60. The full-employment target can be reached if government spending is increased
a. by $60 billion.b. by $100 billion.c. by $250 billion.d. by $25 billion.
b. Change in real GDP required = spending multiplier x change in government spending (G). Rewritten,
G = 1/(1 - 0.60) x ($1,250 - $1,000) G x 2.5 = $250 G = $100 billion.
48Figure 2(c) Equilibrium income equals
potential income
E
Y
E
Y-line
0 Yf = Ye
45o
49
Does the equilibrium yield full Does the equilibrium yield full employment?employment?
Does the equilibrium yield full Does the equilibrium yield full employment?employment?
Not necessarily, according to Keynes. We could move toward a less than full employment equilibrium.
50
What can we do if the What can we do if the economy is moving toward economy is moving toward less than full employment?less than full employment?
What can we do if the What can we do if the economy is moving toward economy is moving toward less than full employment?less than full employment?
We use our fiscal policies to shift the equilibrium to a point of GDP that gives us full employment.
51
What is Fiscal Policy? (P.16-7.2.6. & Wong 2000: 137)
• Fiscal policy is the deliberate manipulation of government purchases, transfer payments, taxes, and borrowing in order to influence macroeconomic variables such as employment, the price level, and the level of GDP
52
What is a Discretionary Discretionary Fiscal PolicyFiscal Policy (P.16-7.2.6.1. & Wong 2000: 139)?
The deliberatedeliberate use of changes in government spending, transfer payments, taxes and borrowing to alter aggregate demand and stabilize the stabilize the economyeconomy
53
Discretionary Fiscal PolicyDiscretionary Fiscal Policy (P.16-7.2.6.1. & Wong 2000: 139)
= The discretionary changes in government expenditures and/or taxes in order to achieve certain national economic goals
• High employment• Price stability• Economic growth• Level of GDP• Improvement of international payments balan
ce
Slide 13-8
54
Why is Government spendingGovernment spending considered an AutonomousAutonomous Expenditure (Wong 2000: 94)?
Because Government spending is primarily the result of a political decision made decision made independent of the level independent of the level of national output.of national output.
55
What are examples of Expansionary Fiscal PolicyExpansionary Fiscal Policy
(P.16-7.2.6.1.1.)?
• Increase government spending
• Decrease taxes• increase government
spending and taxes equally
56
The Effect on GDP of an Increase in Government Spending
Real GDP
$
C+I+G
45o C+I+G’
GDP
G Simple government expenditures multiplier =
GDP/G = 1/(1-MPC)
Simple government expenditures multiplier =
GDP/G = 1/(1-MPC)
57
The Effect on GDP of a Decrease in Lump-sum Taxes
Real GDP
$
C+I+G
45o C’+I+G
GDP
Simple tax multiplier =
GDP/T = -MPC/(1-MPC)
Simple tax multiplier =
GDP/T = -MPC/(1-MPC)
58
Shifting the aggregate demand curve upward
Shifting the aggregate demand curve upward
Real GDP
C1 + I1 + G1
45o
less than full employment
C2 + I2 + G2
Pla
nned
Spe
ndin
g
full employment
59
How can we shift the aggregate How can we shift the aggregate demand curve upward?demand curve upward?
How can we shift the aggregate How can we shift the aggregate demand curve upward?demand curve upward?
We can use fiscal policies to• lower taxes• increase government
spending
60Figure 3(a) Expansionary fiscal policy
E
Y
E
Y-line
Ye Yf0
E’
45o
61
What is a Cyclical Deficit & a Structural DeficitStructural Deficit (P.16-7.2.6.1.4.)?
• The part of the deficit that varies with the business cycle is a Cyclical Deficit.
• The part of the deficit that is independent of the business cycle is a Structural Deficit.
C:\My Documents\Econppt\Macro\HLch27GovtSpending.ppt
62
What are examples of Contractionary Fiscal PolicyContractionary Fiscal Policy
(P.16-7.2.6.1.1.)?• Decrease government
spending• Increase taxes
63Figure 3(b) Contractionary fiscal policy
E
Y
E
Y-line
YeYf0
E’
45o
64
Figure 4 A balance-budget increase in G and T will have an expansionary effect on the economy
E
Y
Y-line
0
C + I + G
Y
c T*
G*
45o
65
What is the Tax Multiplier Tax Multiplier (P.15-7.2.4.3.=Wong 2000: 101)(P.15-7.2.4.3.=Wong 2000: 101)?
The change in aggregate demand (total spending) resulting from an initial change in taxes
66
What is the Balanced Balanced Budget Multiplier (P.15-Budget Multiplier (P.15-
7.2.4.3.)7.2.4.3.)?An equal change in
government spending and taxes, which changes aggregate demand by the amount of the change in government spending
67
What is a Countercyclical Countercyclical Fiscal Policy (P.16-7.2.6.1.3.)?Changes in taxes or
government spending designed to counteract a boom or recession.
C:\My Documents\Econppt\Macro\HLch27GovtSpending.ppt
68
What are What are limitationslimitations to to Countercyclical Policies?Countercyclical Policies?TimingTiming Problems Problems – there are the lags of recognition, decision, and action IrreversibilityIrreversibility – government policies tend to become entrenched
69
Fiscal Policy: problems • Time lags (P.18-7.2.6.3.1.)
– Recognition Time Lag• The time required to gather information about the
current state of the economy
– Action Time Lag• The time required between recognizing an economic
problem and putting policy into effect– Particularly long for fiscal policy
– Effect Time Lag• The time it takes for a fiscal policy to affect the
economySlide 13-39
70
Discretionary Fiscal Policy
in Practice• Fiscal policy time lags are long. A policy designed to correct a recession may not produce results until the economy is experiencing inflation.
• Fiscal policy time lags are variable in length (1–3 years). The timing of the desired effect cannot be predicted.
Slide 13-42
71
What are Automatic Stabilizers? (P.17-7.2.6.2. & Wong 2000: 138)
What are Automatic Stabilizers? (P.17-7.2.6.2. & Wong 2000: 138)
Forces that reduce the size of the expenditure multiplier and diminish the impact of spending shocks
72
What is an Automatic Automatic StabilizerStabilizer (P.17-7.2.6.2. & Wong 2000: 138)?• Government expenditures and tax
revenues that automatically change levels in order to stabilize an economic expansion or contraction
• Structural features of government spending and taxation that smooth fluctuations in disposable income over the business cycle
73
Automatic Stabilizers• Changes in government spending and
taxation that occur automatically without deliberate action of government
• Examples:–Progressive income tax system with its
increasing marginal income tax rates
–Unemployment compensation
–Welfare spending
–Transfer paymentsSlide 13-43
74
What are some examples of Stabilizers?
What are some examples of Stabilizers?
• Transfer payments that increase and decrease with changes in the economy
• Income (proportional/progressive) taxes that rise and fall with income
How do automatic stabilizers affect spending How do automatic stabilizers affect spending shocks?shocks?
• They smooth out the ups and downs of the economy.
75
Automatic Stabilizers
Real GDP per Year($ trillions)
0
Gov
ernm
ent
Tra
nsfe
rsan
d T
ax R
even
ues
Taxrevenues
Unemploymentcompensation and welfare
Y1
Budget surplus
Y2
Budgetdeficit
The automatic changes tend to drive the economy back toward its full-employment output level
Slide 13-44
76
Automatic Stabilizers
Real GDP per Year($ trillions)
Y20
Gov
ernm
ent
Tra
nsfe
rsan
d T
ax R
even
ues
Taxrevenues
Y1Yf
Unemploymentcompensation and welfare
Budget surplusBudgetdeficit
Figure 13-6 Slide 13-45
77
Household
Financial markets
Firms
Figure 5 Four-sector national income model
National income
National expenditure
Incomegenerated
Payment for goods and service
C
S
I
E Y
GovernmentGT
Foreign markets
X
M
78
Factorpayments
Consumption ofdomestically
produced goodsand services (Cd)
BANKS, etc GOV. ABROAD
Investment (I)Investment (I)
GovernmentGovernmentexpenditure (expenditure (GG))
ExportExportexpenditure (X)expenditure (X)
NetNetsaving (S)saving (S)
NetNettaxes (T)taxes (T)
ImportImportexpenditure (M)expenditure (M)
The circular flow of incomeThe circular flow of income
WITHDRAWALSWITHDRAWALS
INJECTIONSINJECTIONS
79Figure 6 Determining the equilibrium income of an open economy
E
Y
E = C + I + G + (X - M)
Y-line
0Ye
45o
(a)
(b)
E
Y
I + G + X
S + T + M
0 Ye
80Figure 7 Aggregate demand curve
P
Q
AD
0
81Figure 8(a) Keynesian (kinked) aggregate supply
curve
P
Q0
AS
Qf
82Figure 8(b) Upward-sloping aggregate supply curve
P
Q0
AS
Qf
83Figure 8(c) Classical aggregate supply curve
P
Q0
AS
Qf
84
Figure 9 Equilibrium of aggregate demand and supply
P
Q
AD
0
AS
Pe
Qe
85Figure 10(a) Unemployment equilibrium
P
Q
AD
0
AS
Qf
DG
86
P
Q
AD
0
AS
Qf
IG
Figure 10(b) Over-employment equilibrium
87Figure 10(c) Full employment equilibrium
P
Q
AD
0
AS
Qf
88
Figure 11
Multiplier effect with changing price level
P
Q0
AS
Qf
P
Q0
P
Q0Qf
AD
AD’•
AS
AD
AD’
If P unchanged
If P
••
AD
AD’
AS
•
•
(a)(b)
(c)
•
Advanced LevelMicroeconomicsAdvanced Level
Macroeconomics
Previousslide
89
The paradox of thrift:An attempt to save more may lead to lower income and no actual increase in saving if everybody do the same.Saving is a virtue for the individual, but may not be good for the society as a whole!
90
Case 1
When you want to save more by decreasing autonomous consumption and others follow what you did, the saving function shifts upwards. The national income is decreased. The level of saving remains the same.
S
Y
S = -a + sY
I = I*
Ye
S’ = -a’ + sY
Ye’
91
Case 2
If investment is an induced function, how will an upward shift in saving function affect the level of equilibrium income and saving? Show your answer in the following diagram?
S’ = -a’ + sY
Ye’
S
Y
S = -a + sYI = I* + iY
Ye
SS’
92
Resolution:
The amount of investment is independent of the rate of interest and the amount of saving. An increase in saving leads to an accumulation of unintended inventory and then output and income will fall.
Rate of interest (r)
Loanable funds for investment
D = investmentS = saving
S’
S, I
I
Y
S
S’
YeYe’
93
Would the paradox still arise if investment is negatively
related to the rate of interest?
94
Annual Percentage Changes in U.S. Real GDP, Real Consumption, and Real Investment
–20.0
–15.0
–10.0
–5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
An
nu
al p
erc
en
tag
e c
ha
ng
e
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
78
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
92
19
94
19
96
199
8
Investm ent
GDP
Consum ption
Year
196
0
197
0
19
74
19
80
19
82
19
90
Source: Based on annual estimated found in Survey of Current Business, U.S. Department of Commerce, 77 (August 1997) and 79 (January 1999).
95
Why does the Consumption Function Shift (P.20-7.3.1.1.)?
• Expectations• Wealth• Price level• Interest rate
28
96
How do Expectations affect the Consumption (P.22-7.3.1.1.10)?Consumers expectations of
things to happen in the future will affect their spending decisions today
29
97
How does Wealth affect the Consumption (P.20-7.3.1.1.5)?Holding all other factors
constant, the more wealth households accumulate, the more they spend at any current level of disposable income
30
98
How does the Price Level affect the Consumption
(P.21-7.3.1.1.6)?Any change in the general
price level shifts the consumption schedule by reducing or enlarging the consumers purchasing power
31
99
How does the Interest Rate affect the Consumption
Function (P.21-7.3.1.1.8)?A high interest rate will
discourage people from borrowing money and a low interest rate will encourage people to borrow money
32
101
According to Keynes, what determines the level of
Investment?Expectations of future
profits is the primary factor, the interest rate is the financing cost of any investment proposal
36
102
7.4.3. How do Expectations affect Investment?
Business people are quite susceptible to moods of optimism and pessimism
41
106
How do Business Taxes affect Investment?
Business decisions depend on the expected after-tax rate of profit
45
107
8. Can the government maintain a permanent budget deficit? What would you need to know about the future path of interest rates and GDP growth rates to be able to answer this question?
• It depends. The government can (cannot) maintain a permanent budget deficit if the interest rate is lower (higher) than the GDP growth rate.
108
Countercyclical fiscal policy• Argues that increasing government
spending or reducing taxes during a recession would mitigate the recession
–Suggested by Keynes in 1930s (Keynesian policy)
• Rationale now for “fiscal stimulus” package in Japan
• Discretionary versus automatic
109
Effect of the economy on the budget deficit
• Budget deficit is cyclical
–Deficit rises in recessions
–Deficit falls during recoveries and expansions
• To see the reason look at tax revenues and expenditures
110
Government tax revenues depend on the state of the economy
• when real GDP grows more rapidly, proportional tax revenues rise
–more people working, higher incomes
–people move into higher tax brackets
111
Expenditures also depend on the economy
• When real GDP grows more rapidly, as in a recovery, expenditures such as transfer payments grow less rapidly
• When real GDP grows less rapidly or falls, as in a recession, expenditures grow more rapidly – unemployment compensation rises– welfare payments go up– more people retire, increasing social
security payments
112
Net effect of real GDP on deficit
• deficit = government spending - tax revenue
•thus in a recession the deficit will rise, and in a recovery the deficit will fall
• Fill in P.17 table
113
The structural deficit• The structural deficit is the deficit that
would exist if real GDP = potential GDP
• Also called full employment deficit
• Purpose is to take out (control for) the effects of economic fluctuations in real GDP on the deficit
• Changing structural deficit requires – change in tax laws, size of government,...
114
4. The government budget deficit is
a) A stock variable.
b) A flow variable.
c) Neither a flow nor a stock variable.
d) Always increasing over time.
Answer: b
115
Countercyclical fiscal policy• Argues that increasing government
spending or reducing taxes during a recession would mitigate the recession
–Suggested by Keynes in 1930s (Keynesian policy)
• Rationale now for “fiscal stimulus” package in Japan
• Discretionary versus automatic
116
• There was no such thing as fiscal policy until John Maynard Keynes invented it in the 1930s– He maintained that
• The only way out of the Depression was to boost aggregate demand by increasing government spending
• If we ran a big enough budget deficit, we could jump-start the economy and, in effect, spend our way out of the depression
Fiscal Policy (P.16-7.2.6.)
12-4Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
117
The Public Debt (P.18-7.2.6.3.3.)• Differentiating between the Deficit and
the Debt– The deficit occurs when government spending is
greater than tax revenue– The debt is the cumulative total of all the budget
deficits less any surpluses• Suppose that our deficit declined one year from $200
billion to $150 billion
• The national debt would still go up by $150 billion
• So every year that we have a deficit – even a declining one – the national debt will go up
12-48Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
118
The Public Debt• Is the national debt a burden that will have
to be borne by future generations?– As long as we owe it to ourselves, the answer is
no– If we did owe it mainly to foreigners (in 4-sector
model), and if they wanted it paid off, it could be a great burden
– In the future, even if we never pay back one penny of the debt, our children and our grandchildren will have to pay hundreds of billions of dollars in interest. At least to that degree, the public debt will be a burden to future generations
12-50Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
119
The Public Debt
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1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
5
4
3
2
1
0
6
National Debt, 1975-2000
Economic Report of the President, 2000
120
The Automatic Stabilizers• The automatic stabilizers protect us
from the extremes (peak & trough) of the business cycle– Personal Income and Payroll Taxes
• During recessions, tax receipts decline• During inflations, tax receipts rise
– Personal Savings• During recessions, saving declines• During prosperity, saving rises
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121
The Automatic Stabilizers
–Credit Availability–Credit availability helps get us through recessions
–Unemployment Compensation
–During recessions more people collect unemployment benefits
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122
The Automatic Stabilizers–The Corporate Profits Tax
• During recessions, corporations pay much less corporate income taxes
–Other Transfer Payments• Welfare (or public assistance) payments, Medical aid payments, and food stamps rise during recessions
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123
Consumption and investment are two important aggregates in macroeconomic models. An autonomous change in one of them will cause the level of national income to change, via the multiplier effect. In this lesson, we take a closer look at consumption and investment. Firstly, we consider possible determinants of consumption demand other than the one (i.e. income) in the simple Keynesian model. Secondly, we examine two hypotheses of consumption demand which are used to explain the empirical data: the permanent income hypothesis and the life-cycle hypothesis. Lastly, we turn our attention to determinants of investment.
•Consumption and Investment
124Figure 3 Permanent-income hypothesis
0
Consumption
Income (years)
C
Slope = MPC = APC
7.3.1.3.
125Figure 4 Life-cycle income, consumption
and saving
0
$
Age
C
Income stream
7.3.1.2.
126Figure 5 Life-cycle hypothesis
0
Consumption
Permanent income
C
Slope = MPC = APC =1
7.3.1.2.
127Figure 6 Change in income distribution
0
C
Yd
CC
Yd
C
Yd
Slope = MPC
7.3.1.1.11.
128Figure 9 The paradox of thrift
0
E
Y
I
S
S’
YeYe’ Yf0
E
Y
I
S
S’
YeYe’ Yf
(a) (b)
Figure 10 The effect of increased saving on investment
0
Interest rate
Loanable fund forinvestment
I
SS’
0
E
Y
I
SS’
Ye Yf
(a) (b)
I’
129
130
Discretionary Policy and Discretionary Policy and Permanent IncomePermanent Income
• Permanent income is income that individuals expect to receive on average over the long run
• To the extent that consumers base spending decisions on their permanent income, attempts to fine-tune the economy through discretionary fiscal policy will be less effective
131
Permanent Income Hypothesis(Milton Friedman) 7.3.1.3.
• People gear their consumption to their expected lifetime average earnings more than to their current income– Apparently there are quite a few deviations
from the behavior predicted by the permanent income hypothesis
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132
Figure 8.6a Life-cycle consumption, income, and saving
7.3.1.2.
133
7.4 Investment (P. 23)
• “Investment” is the thing that really makes our economy go and grow!
• Investment is any NEW– Plant and equipment
• Investment is any NEW– Additional inventory
• Investment is any NEW– Residential housing
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134
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Investment in Plant and Equipment, 1960-2000 (in 1987 dollars)
There has been a strong upward trend in this investment sector over the last four decades. Note the periodic downturns, especially during recession years
135
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75
50
25
0
Ð251960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Inventory Investment, 1960-2000 (in billions of 1987 dollars)
This is the most volatile sector of investment. Note that investment was actually negative during three recessions
136
Residential Construction
• Involves replacing old housing as well as adding to it
• Fluctuates considerably from year to year
• Has mortgage interest rates play a dominant role
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137
Investment• Investment is the most volatile sector in
our economy– GDP = C + II + G + Xn
• Fluctuations in GDP are largely fluctuations in investment
• Recessions are touched off by declines in investment
• Recoveries are brought about by rising investment
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138
Determinants of the Level of Investment
• Interest rate• Sales outlook• Expected rate of profit• Technological change• Business taxes• Autonomous reasons
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139
7.4.2. The Interest Rate
• You won’t invest if interest rates (cost) are higher than MEC (benefit)
Interest rate = The interest paid / The amount borrowed
Assume you borrow $1000 for one year @ 12 %, how much interest do you pay?
.12 = X
$1000
X = $120
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140
You Won’t Invest If Interest Rates Are Too High
• In general, the lower the interest rate, the more business firms will borrow
• To know how much they will borrow and whether they will borrow, you need to compare the interest rate with the expected rate of profit
• Even if they are investing their own money they need to make this comparison
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141
7.4.3. The Sales Outlook• You won’t invest if the sales outlook
is bad• If sales are expected to be strong the
next few months the business is probably willing to add inventory
• If sales outlook is good for the next few years, firms will probably purchase new plant and equipment
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142
Expected Rate of Profit(ERP)
ERP = -------------------------------------------Expected Profits
Money Invested
How much is the ERP on a $10,000 investment if you expect to make a profit of $1,650?
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143
How much is the ERP on a $10,000 investment if you expect to make a profit of $1,650?
ERP = -------------------------------------------Expected Profits
Money Invested
ERP = -------------------------------------------$1,650
$10,000
ERP = .165 = 16.5 %
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144
Why Do Firms Invest?
• Firm’s will only invest if the expected profit rate is “high enough”
• Firms invest when– Their sales outlook is good– Their expected profit rate is high
• Even if firm’s invest their own money, the interest rate is still a consideration
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145
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45û
8,000
10,000
8,000 10,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,0002,000
2,000
C +I +G
Disposable income ($)
45û
8,000
10,000
8,000 10,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,0002,000
2,000
C +I +G
Disposable income ($)
C +I +G +Xn
C + I + G + Xn
Why is the C + I + G + Xn line lower than the C + I + G line?
Answer: It is lower because net exports (Xn) are negative