Post on 19-Jan-2016
1. Assessment of Renewable PotentialsUnit: MKLOE / y
2
1999 2000~2004 2005~2010 2011~2020(Estimation) Promotion Target Promotion Target Promotion Target
Period
CoreTechnology
AccumulatedInstalledCapacity
AnnualProductionMKLOE/y
%Accumulated
InstalledCapacity
AnnualProductionMKLOE/y
%Accumulated
InstalledCapacity
AnnualProductionMKLOE/y
%Accumulated
InstalledCapacity
AnnualProductionMKLOE/y
%
Solar WaterHeater 900,000 ㎡ 0.075 11.65 1,840,000 ㎡ 0.153 8.64 3,480,000 ㎡ 0.288 9.35 7,820,000 ㎡ 0.648 7.46
Small Hydro 107.75 MW 0.07 10.87 201.64 MW 0.17 9.62 284.72 MW 0.26 8.44 491.06 MW 0.49 5.64
Wind Energy 0.0 MW 0.0 0.00 20.4 MW 0.013 0.73 500 MW 0.31 10.07 2000 MW 1.24 14.26
GeothermalEnergy - - - 10 MW 0.017 0.96 60 MW 0.104 3.38 150 MW 0.261 3.00
Photovoltaics 0.1 MW 0.0 0.0 7.2 MW 0.00275 0.16 250 MW 0.0956 3.13 4500 MW 1.72 19.78
Bio-energy - - - - - - 686.1 KLOE/d 0.23 7.47 3939.1KLOE/d 1.3 14.95
R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e
s OTEC - - - - - - 10 MW 0.009 0.29 400 MW 0.4 4.60
AgriculturalWaste
- - - 38 MW 0.025 1.41 70 MW 0.045 1.46 114 MW 0.071 0.82
IndustrialWaste
76MW 0.283 43.94 166 MW 0.689 38.93 223 MW 0.925 30.04 370 MW 1.531 17.61
W
a
s
t
e MunicipalWaste
202.38MW 0.216 33.54 626 MW 0.70 39.55 726 MW 0.812 26.37 924 MW 1.033 11.88
Total 386 MW 0.644 100 1,069 MW 1.770 100 2124 MW 3.079 100 8949 MW 8.694 100
EstimatedTotal EnergySupply (TES)
- 98 - - 110 - - 139 - - 167 -
Proportionto TES
- 0.66% - - 1.61% - - 2.22% - - 5.21% -
NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS IN
CHINESE TAIPEI
THE PRESENTATION FOR POLICY DIALOGUE
EWG20October 16-20, 2000
Cuzco, PERU
2. Assessment of Renewable Potentials
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
1999 2004 2010 2020 YEAR
Energy Production(MKLOE/y)
10.9%
11.7%77.5%
8.6%
0.2%
0.7%
79.9%
9.6%
1.0%
57.9%
3.1%
7.5%10.1%
9.4%8.4%
0.3%
3.4%
30.3%
19.8%
15.0%
14.3%
7.5%
5.6%
4.6%
3.0%
0.644MKLOE0.66%
1.770MKLOE1.61%
3.079MKLOE2.22%
8.694MKLOE5.21%
3
Items 2000-2004 Capacity increment
2004 Annual production
Geothermal Energy 10.0MW 0.017 OTEC 0.0MW 0.000 Small hydro 93.9MW 0.170
Solar Water Heater 94.0×104 ㎡ 0.153
Wind Energy 20.4MW 0.013 Energy crops 0.0MW 0.000 PVs 7.1MW 0.000 Waste to Energy 551.6MW 1.414
Total 683.0MW 1.770
3. Mid- and Long-term RE Promotion Strategies4
Products/Technologies 2000~2004 2005~2010 2011~2020
1. Solar hot Water Incentive promotion Widespread promotion and education
2. Hydro Premium electricityprice,Incentive promotion
Promotion through measures of utilities’ RE purchase obligation
3. Wind Energy Incentive demonstration Promotion through measures of utilities’ RE purchase obligation4.Geothermal Energy 1Tourism incentives for heating demonstration
2. Promotion through measures of utilities RE purchase obligation
5.PhotovoltaicsEnhance R&D, Incentivedemonstration, businessinvestment support
Incentive demonstration andPromotion through measures of utilities’RE purchase obligation
Promotionthrough measuresof utilities REpurchaseobligation
Widespreadpromotion andeducation
6.Ethanol fuel Enhance R&D, Incentive demonstration, Incentive promotion7.Biodiesel Enhance R&D, Incentive demonstration, Incentive promotion8.Biomass Gasification Long term R/D Incentive demonstration and
promotion9.Hydrogenfermentation
Long term R/D Incentive demonstration andpromotion
10.OTEC Clarification of key technologies11.Biogas generation Incentive demonstration Incentive promotion Widespread promotion and education12.Biogas heating Incentive demonstration Incentive promotion Widespread promotion and education13.Municipal wasteincineration
Promotion by EPA
14.Waste gasification R/D and Incentivedemonstration
Incentive promotion
15.Heat utilization fromwaste
R/D and Incentivedemonstration
Incentive promotion
16.Fuel cell R/D Incentive demonstration Incentive promotion
4. Cost Analysis of Renewable Power Generation
TechnologyCapital
Investment(NT$ 10,000)
Generation CostAnnual Generating
Hours at RatedCapacity (Hrs)
LandRequirement
Small Hydro 4.4/kW NT$ 1.49/kWh 3,335
Wind Energy 3.5/kW NT$ 1.64/kWh 2,500 55 m2/kW *
Geothermal Energy 10/kW NT$ 2.04/kWh 7,000
Photovoltaics 21/kW NT$ 10.67/kWh 1,540 9 m2/kWp
Bio-energy 5/kW NT$ 3.63/kWh 6,000
Renewables OTEC 30/kW NT$ 15.22/kWh 4,000
Biogas 3/kW NT$ 1.28/kWh 6,000
Incineration 3/kW NT$ 1.35/kWh 4,500
Waste Gasification 5/kW NT$ 1.97/kWh 6,000
* If only the wind turbine itself is considered, then less than 0.5 m2/kW of land is needed. However,in order to reduce the wake effect, multiple wind turbines should be placed apart from each otherat around 6 and 3 times of rotor diameter, in parallel and vertical to prevailing wind directionrespectively. Under ideal conditions, if wind turbines rated at 600 kW (assuming 43 m indiameter) are to be used to replace the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in Taiwan, then at least36,000 hectare of land (about 1% of Taiwan's area) is needed. Furthermore, the closestresidence should be at least 300 m from wind turbines to prevent from noise. 5
5. Cost Analysis of Renewable Power Generation
Taipower is currently intending to purchase wind generated electricity at similar price level of cogeneration. Considering wind property, the price would be around NT$ 1.0~1.2/kWh. With a subsidy of up to 50% of capital investment, the payback period would be around 10 to 16 years. 6
Payback Period (Years)PurchasingPrice
(NT$/kWh)No
subsidy30%
subsidy35%
subsidy40%
subsidy45%
subsidy50%
subsidy
1.0 >50 35.4 28.5 23.7 19.9 16.81.2 48.6 18.5 16.2 14.3 12.5 10.91.4 24.2 12.9 11.6 10.4 9.2 8.11.6 17.1 10.0 9.1 8.2 7.3 6.51.8 13.4 8.2 7.5 6.8 6.1 5.4
2.0 11.1 6.9 6.3 5.8 5.2 4.72.2 9.4 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.12.4 8.2 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.62.6 7.3 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.32.8 6.6 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.03.0 6.0 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.73.2 5.5 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.53.4 5.0 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.3
Assumptions: capital investment is NT$ 32,000/kW, annual yield is2,500 kWh/kW, annual O&M cost is 3% of investment, lifetimeis 20 years, and discounted rate is 6%.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 1 2 3 4
Purchasing Price (NT$/kWh)
Pay
bac
k P
erio
d (
Yea
rs)
No subsidy
30% subsidy
35% subsidy
40% subsidy
45% subsidy
50% subsidy
Cost Analysis of Wind Energy
Taipower is currently intending to purchase PV electricity at similar price level of cogeneration. Considering the property of PVs, the price would be around NT$ 1.0~1.2/kWh. Even with a subsidy of up to 50% of capital investment, it is not possible to recover the costs of PV systems in their lifetimes.
Payback Period (Years)PurchasingPrice
(NT$/kWh)
Nosubsidy
60%subsidy
70%subsidy
75%subsidy
80%subsidy
85%subsidy
90%subsidy
95%subsidy
1.0 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 29.3 9.01.2 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 19.7 7.21.4 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 35.9 15.1 5.91.6 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 25.0 12.3 5.11.8 >50 >50 >50 >50 41.2 19.7 10.4 4.42.0 >50 >50 >50 >50 29.3 16.3 9.0 3.92.2 >50 >50 >50 45.6 23.4 14.0 8.0 3.52.4 >50 >50 >50 32.8 19.7 12.3 7.2 3.22.6 >50 >50 49.5 26.5 17.0 11.0 6.5 2.92.8 >50 >50 35.9 22.5 15.1 9.9 5.9 2.73.0 >50 >50 29.3 19.7 13.5 9.0 5.5 2.53.2 >50 >50 25.0 17.5 12.3 8.3 5.1 2.33.4 >50 >50 22.0 15.8 11.3 7.7 4.7 2.23.6 >50 41.2 19.7 14.4 10.4 7.2 4.4 2.13.8 >50 33.9 17.8 13.3 9.7 6.7 4.2 2.04.0 >50 29.3 16.3 12.3 9.0 6.3 3.9 1.94.2 >50 25.9 15.1 11.5 8.5 5.9 3.7 1.84.4 >50 23.4 14.0 10.7 8.0 5.6 3.5 1.74.6 >50 21.3 13.1 10.1 7.5 5.3 3.4 1.64.8 >50 19.7 12.3 9.5 7.2 5.1 3.2 1.55.0 >50 18.2 11.6 9.0 6.8 4.8 3.1 1.5
Assumptions: capital investment is NT$ 210,000/kW, annual yield is 1,540 kWh/kW, annual O&M cost is 0% of investment, lifetime is 25 years, and discounted rate is 6%.
7
6. Cost Analysis of Renewable Power GenerationCost Analysis of Photovoltaics
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Purchasing Price (NT$/kWh)
Pay
back
Per
iod
(Yea
rs)
60% subsidy 70% subsidy 75% subsidy 80% subsidy
85% subsidy 90% subsidy 95% subsidy
7. Targets for the Promotion of Renewables
* Ordinary Power Generation means power generation from biogas, sugarcane and other agricultural residues, wastes from paper industry, petroleum coke, waste plastics and derived fuels.
This table is derived more practically from previous potential assessment: According to previous analyses, because the capital investment and energy production costs of renewables are still high, it is a better approach to adopt step-by-step strategies to develop the utilization of renewables. Technologies that are maturer and more economical should be granted with higher priority. Mass production techniques at low costs should be established to promote widespread applications. 8
AccumulatedInstalledCapacity
AnnualProduction
MKLOE%
AccumulatedInstalledCapacity
AnnualProduction
MKLOE%
AccumulatedInstalledCapacity
AnnualProduction
MKLOE%
AccumulatedInstalledCapacity
AnnualProduction
MKLOE%
888,500 m2 0.071 6.7 1,688,000 m
2 0.122 8.6 3,100,000m2 0.203 8.6 5,990,000m
2 0.326 6.5
133 MW 0.113 10.8 153 MW 0.130 9.1 207 MW 0.177 7.5 322 MW 0.275 5.5
0 MW 0.000 0.0 18 MW 0.011 0.8 230 MW 0.142 6.0 530 MW 0.327 6.5
0 MW 0.000 0.0 10.0 MW 0.017 1.2 42 MW 0.072 3.0 130 MW 0.224 4.5
0.09 MW 0.000 0.0 6.8 MW 0.003 0.2 55 MW 0.021 0.9 1,200 MW 0.455 9.0
Municipal Waste 265 MW 0.471 44.7 390.4 MW 0.693 48.6 535 MW 0.950 40.0 626 MW 1.112 22.0*Ordinary Power
Generation 42 MW 0.078 7.4 62.5 MW 0.126 8.8 161 MW 0.291 12.3 790 MW 1.413 28.0
Heating0.961x10
6
ton/y 0.320 30.40.917x10
6
ton/y 0.323 22.71.041x10
6
ton/y 0.462 19.41.208x10
6
ton/y 0.601 11.9
- - - - - - 10 x 104kl/y 0.058 2.4 54 x 10
4kl/y 0.312 6.2
- 1.053 100 - 1.425 100 - 2.376 100 - 5.045 100
98 - - 110 - - 139 - - 167 -1.07% - - 1.30% - - 1.71% - - 3.02% -
AccumulatedInstalled Capacity 440 MW 0.662 - 641 MW 0.98 - 1,230 MW 1.653 - 3,598 MW 3.86 -
0.68% - - 0.89% - - 1.19% - - 2.31% -
2005~2010
Promotion Target
2011~20201999
Promotion Target Promotion Target
2000~2004
Promotion Target
Solar Water HeaterSmall HydroWind Energy
Geothermal Energy
Waste
Photovoltaics
Estima-tions forRenew-ables
Energy Crops
Estimated Total Energy Supply (TES)
Proportion to TES
Proportion to TES
Total
Period
Items
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
1999 2004 2010 2020 YEAR
Ene
rgy
Pro
duct
ion
(MKL
OE/y
)
82. 5%
6.7%
10.8%
1. 053MKLOE/ y1. 07%
1. 425MKLOE/ y1. 30%
61.8%
9. 0%
6. 5%
6. 5%
6. 2%
5. 5%
4. 5%
71. 6%
0. 9%
8. 6%
6. 0%
2. 4%7. 5%
3. 0%
80. 1%
0. 2%
8. 6%
0. 8%
9. 1%
1. 2%
2.376MKLOE/ y1. 71%
5.045MKLOE/ y3. 02%
9
8. Targets for the Promotion of Renewables
Items 2000-2004 Capacity increment
2004 Annual production
Geothermal Energy 10.0 MW 0.017 Small hydro 20.0 MW 0.130 Energy crops 0.0 MW 0.000 Wind Energy 18.0 MW 0.000
Solar Water Heater 80.0×104㎡ 0.011
PVs 6.7 MW 0.122 Waste to Energy 145.9 MW 1.142 Total 200.6 MW 1.425