1. Assessment of Renewable Potentials Unit ： MKLOE / y 2.

1. Assessment of Renewable PotentialsUnit： MKLOE / y

2

1999 2000～2004 2005～2010 2011～2020（Estimation） Promotion Target Promotion Target Promotion Target

Period

CoreTechnology

AccumulatedInstalledCapacity

AnnualProductionMKLOE/y

%Accumulated

InstalledCapacity


%Accumulated

InstalledCapacity


%Accumulated

InstalledCapacity


%

Solar WaterHeater 900,000 ㎡ 0.075 11.65 1,840,000 ㎡ 0.153 8.64 3,480,000 ㎡ 0.288 9.35 7,820,000 ㎡ 0.648 7.46

Small Hydro 107.75 MW 0.07 10.87 201.64 MW 0.17 9.62 284.72 MW 0.26 8.44 491.06 MW 0.49 5.64

Wind Energy 0.0 MW 0.0 0.00 20.4 MW 0.013 0.73 500 MW 0.31 10.07 2000 MW 1.24 14.26

GeothermalEnergy －－－ 10 MW 0.017 0.96 60 MW 0.104 3.38 150 MW 0.261 3.00

Photovoltaics 0.1 MW 0.0 0.0 7.2 MW 0.00275 0.16 250 MW 0.0956 3.13 4500 MW 1.72 19.78

Bio-energy －－－－－－ 686.1 KLOE/d 0.23 7.47 3939.1KLOE/d 1.3 14.95

R

e

n

e

w

a

b

l

e

s OTEC －－－－－－ 10 MW 0.009 0.29 400 MW 0.4 4.60

AgriculturalWaste

－－－ 38 MW 0.025 1.41 70 MW 0.045 1.46 114 MW 0.071 0.82

IndustrialWaste

76MW 0.283 43.94 166 MW 0.689 38.93 223 MW 0.925 30.04 370 MW 1.531 17.61

W

a

s

t

e MunicipalWaste

202.38MW 0.216 33.54 626 MW 0.70 39.55 726 MW 0.812 26.37 924 MW 1.033 11.88

Total 386 MW 0.644 100 1,069 MW 1.770 100 2124 MW 3.079 100 8949 MW 8.694 100

EstimatedTotal EnergySupply (TES)

－ 98 －－ 110 －－ 139 －－ 167 －

Proportionto TES

－ 0.66% －－ 1.61% －－ 2.22% －－ 5.21% －

NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS IN

CHINESE TAIPEI

THE PRESENTATION FOR POLICY DIALOGUE

EWG20October 16-20, 2000

Cuzco, PERU

2. Assessment of Renewable Potentials

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

1999 2004 2010 2020 YEAR

Energy Production(MKLOE/y)

10.9%

11.7%77.5%

8.6%

0.2%

0.7%

79.9%

9.6%

1.0%

57.9%

3.1%

7.5%10.1%

9.4%8.4%

0.3%

3.4%

30.3%

19.8%

15.0%

14.3%

7.5%

5.6%

4.6%

3.0%

0.644MKLOE0.66%

1.770MKLOE1.61%

3.079MKLOE2.22%

8.694MKLOE5.21%

3

Items 2000-2004 Capacity increment

2004 Annual production

Geothermal Energy 10.0MW 0.017 OTEC 0.0MW 0.000 Small hydro 93.9MW 0.170

Solar Water Heater 94.0×104 ㎡ 0.153

Wind Energy 20.4MW 0.013 Energy crops 0.0MW 0.000 PVs 7.1MW 0.000 Waste to Energy 551.6MW 1.414

Total 683.0MW 1.770

3. Mid- and Long-term RE Promotion Strategies4

Products/Technologies 2000~2004 2005~2010 2011~2020

1. Solar hot Water Incentive promotion Widespread promotion and education

2. Hydro Premium electricityprice，Incentive promotion

Promotion through measures of utilities’ RE purchase obligation

3. Wind Energy Incentive demonstration Promotion through measures of utilities’ RE purchase obligation4.Geothermal Energy 1Tourism incentives for heating demonstration

2. Promotion through measures of utilities RE purchase obligation

5.PhotovoltaicsEnhance R&D, Incentivedemonstration, businessinvestment support

Incentive demonstration andPromotion through measures of utilities’RE purchase obligation

Promotionthrough measuresof utilities REpurchaseobligation

Widespreadpromotion andeducation

6.Ethanol fuel Enhance R&D, Incentive demonstration, Incentive promotion7.Biodiesel Enhance R&D, Incentive demonstration, Incentive promotion8.Biomass Gasification Long term R/D Incentive demonstration and

promotion9.Hydrogenfermentation

Long term R/D Incentive demonstration andpromotion

10.OTEC Clarification of key technologies11.Biogas generation Incentive demonstration Incentive promotion Widespread promotion and education12.Biogas heating Incentive demonstration Incentive promotion Widespread promotion and education13.Municipal wasteincineration

Promotion by EPA

14.Waste gasification R/D and Incentivedemonstration

Incentive promotion

15.Heat utilization fromwaste

R/D and Incentivedemonstration

Incentive promotion

16.Fuel cell R/D Incentive demonstration Incentive promotion

4. Cost Analysis of Renewable Power Generation

TechnologyCapital

Investment(NT$ 10,000)

Generation CostAnnual Generating

Hours at RatedCapacity (Hrs)

LandRequirement

Small Hydro 4.4/kW NT$ 1.49/kWh 3,335

Wind Energy 3.5/kW NT$ 1.64/kWh 2,500 55 m2/kW *

Geothermal Energy 10/kW NT$ 2.04/kWh 7,000

Photovoltaics 21/kW NT$ 10.67/kWh 1,540 9 m2/kWp

Bio-energy 5/kW NT$ 3.63/kWh 6,000

Renewables OTEC 30/kW NT$ 15.22/kWh 4,000

Biogas 3/kW NT$ 1.28/kWh 6,000

Incineration 3/kW NT$ 1.35/kWh 4,500

Waste Gasification 5/kW NT$ 1.97/kWh 6,000

＊ If only the wind turbine itself is considered, then less than 0.5 m2/kW of land is needed. However,in order to reduce the wake effect, multiple wind turbines should be placed apart from each otherat around 6 and 3 times of rotor diameter, in parallel and vertical to prevailing wind directionrespectively. Under ideal conditions, if wind turbines rated at 600 kW (assuming 43 m indiameter) are to be used to replace the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in Taiwan, then at least36,000 hectare of land (about 1% of Taiwan's area) is needed. Furthermore, the closestresidence should be at least 300 m from wind turbines to prevent from noise. 5

5. Cost Analysis of Renewable Power Generation

Taipower is currently intending to purchase wind generated electricity at similar price level of cogeneration. Considering wind property, the price would be around NT$ 1.0~1.2/kWh. With a subsidy of up to 50% of capital investment, the payback period would be around 10 to 16 years. 6

Payback Period (Years)PurchasingPrice

（NT$/kWh）No

subsidy30%

subsidy35%

subsidy40%

subsidy45%

subsidy50%

subsidy

1.0 >50 35.4 28.5 23.7 19.9 16.81.2 48.6 18.5 16.2 14.3 12.5 10.91.4 24.2 12.9 11.6 10.4 9.2 8.11.6 17.1 10.0 9.1 8.2 7.3 6.51.8 13.4 8.2 7.5 6.8 6.1 5.4

2.0 11.1 6.9 6.3 5.8 5.2 4.72.2 9.4 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.12.4 8.2 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.62.6 7.3 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.32.8 6.6 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.03.0 6.0 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.73.2 5.5 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.53.4 5.0 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.3

Assumptions: capital investment is NT$ 32,000/kW, annual yield is2,500 kWh/kW, annual O&M cost is 3% of investment, lifetimeis 20 years, and discounted rate is 6%.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 1 2 3 4

Purchasing Price (NT$/kWh)

Pay

bac

k P

erio

d (

Yea

rs)

No subsidy

30% subsidy

35% subsidy

40% subsidy

45% subsidy

50% subsidy

Cost Analysis of Wind Energy

Taipower is currently intending to purchase PV electricity at similar price level of cogeneration. Considering the property of PVs, the price would be around NT$ 1.0~1.2/kWh. Even with a subsidy of up to 50% of capital investment, it is not possible to recover the costs of PV systems in their lifetimes.

Payback Period (Years)PurchasingPrice

（NT$/kWh）

Nosubsidy

60%subsidy

70%subsidy

75%subsidy

80%subsidy

85%subsidy

90%subsidy

95%subsidy

1.0 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 29.3 9.01.2 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 19.7 7.21.4 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 35.9 15.1 5.91.6 >50 >50 >50 >50 >50 25.0 12.3 5.11.8 >50 >50 >50 >50 41.2 19.7 10.4 4.42.0 >50 >50 >50 >50 29.3 16.3 9.0 3.92.2 >50 >50 >50 45.6 23.4 14.0 8.0 3.52.4 >50 >50 >50 32.8 19.7 12.3 7.2 3.22.6 >50 >50 49.5 26.5 17.0 11.0 6.5 2.92.8 >50 >50 35.9 22.5 15.1 9.9 5.9 2.73.0 >50 >50 29.3 19.7 13.5 9.0 5.5 2.53.2 >50 >50 25.0 17.5 12.3 8.3 5.1 2.33.4 >50 >50 22.0 15.8 11.3 7.7 4.7 2.23.6 >50 41.2 19.7 14.4 10.4 7.2 4.4 2.13.8 >50 33.9 17.8 13.3 9.7 6.7 4.2 2.04.0 >50 29.3 16.3 12.3 9.0 6.3 3.9 1.94.2 >50 25.9 15.1 11.5 8.5 5.9 3.7 1.84.4 >50 23.4 14.0 10.7 8.0 5.6 3.5 1.74.6 >50 21.3 13.1 10.1 7.5 5.3 3.4 1.64.8 >50 19.7 12.3 9.5 7.2 5.1 3.2 1.55.0 >50 18.2 11.6 9.0 6.8 4.8 3.1 1.5

Assumptions: capital investment is NT$ 210,000/kW, annual yield is 1,540 kWh/kW, annual O&M cost is 0% of investment, lifetime is 25 years, and discounted rate is 6%.

7

6. Cost Analysis of Renewable Power GenerationCost Analysis of Photovoltaics

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Purchasing Price (NT$/kWh)

Pay

back

Per

iod

(Yea

rs)

60% subsidy 70% subsidy 75% subsidy 80% subsidy

85% subsidy 90% subsidy 95% subsidy

7. Targets for the Promotion of Renewables

＊ Ordinary Power Generation means power generation from biogas, sugarcane and other agricultural residues, wastes from paper industry, petroleum coke, waste plastics and derived fuels.

This table is derived more practically from previous potential assessment: According to previous analyses, because the capital investment and energy production costs of renewables are still high, it is a better approach to adopt step-by-step strategies to develop the utilization of renewables. Technologies that are maturer and more economical should be granted with higher priority. Mass production techniques at low costs should be established to promote widespread applications. 8


AnnualProduction

MKLOE%


AnnualProduction

MKLOE%


AnnualProduction

MKLOE%


AnnualProduction

MKLOE%

888,500 m2 0.071 6.7 1,688,000 m

2 0.122 8.6 3,100,000m2 0.203 8.6 5,990,000m

2 0.326 6.5

133 MW 0.113 10.8 153 MW 0.130 9.1 207 MW 0.177 7.5 322 MW 0.275 5.5

0 MW 0.000 0.0 18 MW 0.011 0.8 230 MW 0.142 6.0 530 MW 0.327 6.5

0 MW 0.000 0.0 10.0 MW 0.017 1.2 42 MW 0.072 3.0 130 MW 0.224 4.5

0.09 MW 0.000 0.0 6.8 MW 0.003 0.2 55 MW 0.021 0.9 1,200 MW 0.455 9.0

Municipal Waste 265 MW 0.471 44.7 390.4 MW 0.693 48.6 535 MW 0.950 40.0 626 MW 1.112 22.0＊Ordinary Power

Generation 42 MW 0.078 7.4 62.5 MW 0.126 8.8 161 MW 0.291 12.3 790 MW 1.413 28.0

Heating0.961x10

6

ton/y 0.320 30.40.917x10

6

ton/y 0.323 22.71.041x10

6

ton/y 0.462 19.41.208x10

6

ton/y 0.601 11.9

－－－－－－ 10 x 104kl/y 0.058 2.4 54 x 10

4kl/y 0.312 6.2

－ 1.053 100 － 1.425 100 － 2.376 100 － 5.045 100

98 －－ 110 －－ 139 －－ 167 －1.07% －－ 1.30% －－ 1.71% －－ 3.02% －

AccumulatedInstalled Capacity 440 MW 0.662 － 641 MW 0.98 － 1,230 MW 1.653 － 3,598 MW 3.86 －

0.68% －－ 0.89% －－ 1.19% －－ 2.31% －

2005~2010

Promotion Target

2011~20201999

Promotion Target Promotion Target

2000~2004

Promotion Target

Solar Water HeaterSmall HydroWind Energy

Geothermal Energy

Waste

Photovoltaics

Estima-tions forRenew-ables

Energy Crops

Estimated Total Energy Supply (TES)

Proportion to TES

Proportion to TES

Total

Period

Items

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

1999 2004 2010 2020 YEAR

Ene

rgy

Pro

duct

ion

(MKL

OE/y

)

82. 5%

6.7%

10.8%

1. 053MKLOE/ y1. 07%

1. 425MKLOE/ y1. 30%

61.8%

9. 0%

6. 5%

6. 5%

6. 2%

5. 5%

4. 5%

71. 6%

0. 9%

8. 6%

6. 0%

2. 4%7. 5%

3. 0%

80. 1%

0. 2%

8. 6%

0. 8%

9. 1%

1. 2%

2.376MKLOE/ y1. 71%

5.045MKLOE/ y3. 02%

9

8. Targets for the Promotion of Renewables

Items 2000-2004 Capacity increment

2004 Annual production

Geothermal Energy 10.0 MW 0.017 Small hydro 20.0 MW 0.130 Energy crops 0.0 MW 0.000 Wind Energy 18.0 MW 0.000

Solar Water Heater 80.0×104㎡ 0.011

PVs 6.7 MW 0.122 Waste to Energy 145.9 MW 1.142 Total 200.6 MW 1.425

1. Assessment of Renewable Potentials Unit ： MKLOE / y 2.

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