© ITTO 2000

THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION

Forest Products Markets in the New

Millenium:Tropical Hardwoods

ECE Timber Committee Market Discussions

10 October 2000

S. Johnson, ITTO Secretariat

Trends in ECE imports

• Logs and sawnwood more or less stable, but main markets shifting (northern Europe down, southern Europe up)

• Plywood stable or increasing in most markets

• SPWP from tropical countries increasing in all markets

ECE Tropical Log Imports

2562

2041 2052

2764

2323 2400

2575

2062 2067

2783

2348

2417

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Volu

me,

100

0 m

3

Others

U.S.A.

EU

TOTAL

ECE Tropical Sawnwood Imports

2436

18111992

25632306 2400

237

322323

355

3573602347

2165

2697

2954

26992796

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Vo

lum

e,

10

00

m3

Others

U.S.A.

EU

TOTAL

ECE Tropical Veneer Imports

366332 349

245 262 250

70 53

6261

65

385 409 407

313

329

322

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Volu

me,

100

0 m

3

Others

U.S.A.

EU

TOTAL

ECE Tropical Plywood Imports

1439 1311 1347 1484 1397 1375

1320 1459 1396

1559 1680 1700

2891 2916 2883

3199 3245 3245

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Volu

me,

100

0 m

3

Others

U.S.A.

EU

TOTAL

Tropical Timber Trade, US$billions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

(dashed line = estimate)

Primary Secondary

Main Asian Markets

• Japan housing starts stagnant at about 1.2 million last 3 years, total slightly up in first 8 months 2000 but wood houses down

• HQAL affecting market• Logs imports down about 8% this year,

sawn up about 5%, ply stable• China housing starts Jan-May up 40% on

1999, state bank mortgages +145% in 99, at least +100% in 2000

Supply situation

• Africa - Cameroon log ban, log supply shifting to Congo, CAR, Liberia, Gabon (?)

• ITTO assisting harmonizing of C&I, setting up of PAFC

Supply situation

• Asia - weakness of Euro hurting exporters to ECE

• Sabah ban on Selangan Batu exports • Sabah processing capacity about 7 times

long term sustainable cut• Malay log exports up 25% in 99• lots of (unsustainable?/illegal?) logs going

from Indonesia-Malaysia-China• Indonesia ply production likely to fall 0.5-

1.0 million m3 this year due to provincial unrest, log shortage

Supply situation

• Latin America - Brazil monitoring mahogany exports more closely, all exports must be harvested as per management plan

• Peru banned all exports of mahogany and cedar temporarily, situation unclear

Issues facing ITTO: Certification

• Auditing guidelines to be developed to complement ITTO C&I, will assist countries to implement

• Assisting Malaysia and Indonesia with NTCC and LEI schemes, Fiji and Ghana projects also funded

• Tropical countries not well served by currently available international certification schemes

Breakdown of FSC Certified Forests

73%

12%

4%

1%1%11%

10%

Americas AfricaAsia/Oceania/S.Africa Asia-PacificEurope Latin America/Caribbean

ALL(17.7 m ha)

TROPICAL(2.1 m ha)

Map of FSC Certified Forests

Tropical Forest Certification Issues

•costs of attaining SFM and carrying out certification higher than in non-tropical forests

•ODA, FDI and market access to help achieve tropical SFM still lacking

•“green premium” (and market niche(s)) for certified timber small compared to cost of SFM/certification

•certification of products arising from forest conversion/plantation establishment

•certification of substitutes/life cycle analysis

•increasing trend towards SPWP

Issues facing ITTO: Illegal Logging

• ITTO currently in negotiations with Indonesia, Malaysia and several African countries to address

• Need to distinguish between coordinated illegal felling for export, for domestic mills and for subsistence, different strategies needed for each

THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION

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