Studies and reports in hydrology 44

Recent titles in this series:

5 .

30. 31.

32. 33. 34.

35. 36. 37.

38. 39. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 45.

41. 48.

46.

Discharge of selected rivers of /he world (English/French/Spanish/Kussian). Volurrie I11 (Part IV): Mean monthly and extreme discharges (1976-1979). 1985. Aquifer contarniriu/ion andprotection. 1980. (Also published in French and Arabic.) Methods of compulalion of the water balance of large lakes and reservoirs. Volume I: Methodolog-v. 1981. Volume 11: Case studies. 1984. Application of results from representative and experimental basins. 1982. Ground water in hard rocks. 1984. Ground-water models. Volume 1: Concepts, p rob lem arid inelhods of analysis with exaiiiples of their application. 1982. Sedimentation problems in river basins. 1982. (Also published in French.) Methods o$ computation o$ low stream f low. 1982. Pr0ceeding.s of the Leningrad Symposium on specific aspects of hydrological computations for water projects. 1981. (Russian only.) Methods of hydrological computations for water projects. 1982. (Also published in French.) Hydrological aspects of drought. 1985. Guidebook to studies of land subsidence due lo ground-water wifhdrawal. 1984. Guide to the hydrology of carbonate rocks. 1984. Water and energy: demand and effects. 1985. Planning and design of drainage bsymslen?s in urban areas. (2 volumes.) (To be published.) The process of water resources project planning: a systems approach. 1987. Ground water problems in coastal areas. 1987. The role of water in socio-economic development. (To be published.) Communication strategies for heightening awareness of water. 1987. Casebook of methods for computing hydrological parameters for water projects. 1987.

The process of water resources project planning: a systems approach

Project A 4.3 of the International Hydrological Programme

Report prepared by the Project Team

Editorial Board: Y. Y. Haimes, Chairman J. Kindler E. J. Plate

Unesco

The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part o f Unesco concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or o f i t s authorities, or concerning the delimitation of i t s frontiers or boundaries.

Published in 1987 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 7, place de Fontenoy, 75700 Paris

Printed by Irnprimerie Bietlot Freres, Fleurus, Belgique

ISBN 92-3- 102476-0

0 Unesco 1987 Prinied in Belgium.

Preface

A l t h o u g h t h e t o t a l amount o f water on E a r t h i s g e n e r a l l y assumed t o have remained v i r t u a l l y c o n s t a n t d u r i n g r e c o r d e d h i s t o r y , p e r i o d s o f f l o o d and d r o u g h t have c h a l l e n g e d t h e i n t e l l e c t o f man t o have t h e c a p a c i t y t o c o n t r o l t h e water r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e t o h i m . C u r r e n t l y , t h e r a p i d g r o w t h o f p o p u l a t i o n , t o g e t h e r w i t h ' the e x t e n s i o n o f i r r i g a t e d agriculture and i n d u s t r i a l development , a r e s t r e s s i n g t h e q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y aspec ts o f t h e n a t u r a l system. Because o f t h e i n c r e a s i n g problems, man has begun t o r e a l i z e t h a t he can no l o n g e r f o l l o w a 'use and d i s c a r d ' p h i l o s o p h y -- e i t h e r w i t h water r e s o u r c e s o r any o t h e r n a t u r a l resource . As a r e s u l t , t h e need f o r a c o n s i s t e n t p o l i c y o f r a t i o n a l management o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s has become e v i d e n t .

R a t i o n a l w a t e r management , however, s h o u l d b e founded upon a t h o r o u g h u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f wa te r a v a i l a b i l i t y and movement. Thus , as a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e s o l u t i o n o f t h e w o r l d ' s w a t e r proSlems, UneScO, i n 1965, began t h e f i r s t wor ldw ide programme o f s t u d i e s o f t h e

t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l c y c l e I n t e r n a t i o n a l H y d r o l o g i c a l Decade ( IHD) . The r e s e a r c h programme was complemented by a major e f f o r t i n t h e f i e l d o f h y d r o l o g i c a l e d u c a t i o n an8 t r a i n i n g . The a c t i v i t i e s under taken d u r i n g t h e Decade p roved t o b e o f g r e a t i n t e r e s t and v a l u e t o Member S t a t e s . By t h e end o f t h a t p e r i o d a m a j o r i t y o f Unesco's Member S t a t e s had fo rmed IHD N a t i o n a l Committc'es t o c a r r y o u t t h e r e l e v a n t n a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s and t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n r e g i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o - o p e r a t i o n w i t h i n t h e I H D programme. The knowledge o f t h e W o r l d ' s w a t e r resources as an independent p r o f e s s i o n a l o p t i o n and

--

f a c i l i t i e s f o r t h e t r a i n i n g o f h y d r o l o g i s t s had been deve loped.

Consc ious o f t h e need t o expand upon t h e e f f o r t s i n i t i a t e d d u r i n g t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l H y d r o l o g i c a l Decade , and , f o l l o w i n g t h e recommendations o f Member S t a t e s , UneSCO, i n 1975, l aunched a new l o n g - t e r m i n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l programme, t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l H y d r o l o g i c a l Programme ( IHP) , t o f o l l o w t h e Decade.

A l t h o u g h t h e IHP i s S a s i c a l l y a s c i e n t i f i c and e d u c a t i o n a l programme, Unesco has been- aware f r o m t h e b e g i n n i n g o f a need t o d i r e c t i t s a c t i v i t i e s t o w a r d t h e p r a c t i c a l s o l u t i o n s o f t h e w o r l d ' s v e r y r e a l wa te r r e s o u r c e s p rob lems . A c c o r d i n g l y , and i n l i n e w i t h t h e recommendations o f t h e 1977 U n i t e d N a t i o n s Water Conference , t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l H y d r o l o g i c a l Programme have been g r a d u a l l y expanded i n o r d e r t o c o v e r n o t o n l y h y d r o l o g i c a l p rocesses c o n s i d e r e d i n i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e env i ronment and human a c t i v i t i e s , but a l s o t h e s c i e n t i f i c a s p e c t s o f m u l t i - p u r p o s e u t i l i z a t i o n and c o n s e r v a t i o n o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s t o meet t h e needs o f economic and s o c i a l development. Thus , w h i l e m a i n t a i n i n g IHP ' s s c i e n t i f i c concept , t h e o b j e c t i v e s have s h i f t e d

m u l t i - p e r c e p t i b l y towards a d i s c i p l i n a r y approach t o t h e assessment, p l a n n i n g , and r a t i o n a l management o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s .

AS p a r t o f Unesco ' s c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e o b j e c t i v e s O f

t h e IHP, two p u b l i c a t i o n s e r i e s a r e i s s u e d : ' S t u d i e s and R e p o r t s i n H y d r o l o g y ' and ' T e c h n i c a l Papers i n H y d r o l o g y ' . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e s e p u b l i c a t i o n s , and i n o r d e r t o e x p e d i t e exchange o f i n f o r m a t i o n , some works a r e i s s u e d i n t h e f o r m Of

T e c h n i c a l Documents.

Foreword

T h i s volume summarizes t h e e f f o r t s o f t h e Working Group f o r P r o j e c t A.4.3.1 o f Unesco ' s I n t e r n a t i o n a l H y d r o l o g i c a l Programme ( IHP) . T h i s Work ing Group was charged w i t h e v a l u a t i n g t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f c o u n t r i e s i n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n i n o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h t e c h n i q u e s i n t h e imp lemen ta t i on o f wa te r r e s o u r c e development and management.

I n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r t h i s s t u d y , a p l a n n i n g subcommit tee f o r t h e IHP Work ing Group - Y . Y . Ha i mes (Chairman), J . K i n d l e r , and E . P l a t e - was fo rmed and f i r s t met i n P a r i s d u r i n g June 9-12, 1981. S o r i n Dumi t rescu, D i r e c t o r o f t h e D i v i s i o n of Water Sc i ences, and John G l a d w e l l , P r o j e c t O f f i c e r f o r t h e S e c r e t a r i a t , a t t e n d e d t h i s f i r s t mee t ing , p r o v i d i n g i m p o r t a n t a d v i c e and i n s i g h t t a t h e subcommit tee. I n p a r t i c u l a r , Messrs . Dumi t rescu and Gladwel 1 posed the f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s t o t h e subcommittee:

( 7 ) I s there a need for the project as described, or should i t modif ied or abandoned?

(21 What would be the Working Group produce, and what would be i ts objectives?

(3) Who would be the audiencels) to whom the products would be directed?

(41 What products would be most useful (documents, training programmes, seminars, symposia, etc. /?

A f t e r an e x t e n s i ve d e l i b e r a t i o n , t h e subcommit tee dec ided t o m o d i f y t h e genera l s ta temen t o f t h e p r o j e c t and summarized i t i n t h e p r o j e c t t i t l e -

The Process of Water Resources Project Planning: A Systems Approach.

Fur the rmore , t h e subcommi t tee recommended t h a t t h e e n t i r e p r o j e c t r e p o r t s h o u l d be based upon case h i s t o r i e s o f t h e use o f systems a n a l y s i s i n wa te r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g .

The subcommi t tee g e n e r a t e d a s t a t e m e n t o f g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e p r o j e c t (see t h e I n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h i s vo lume) . I n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r a workshop t h a t was t o be a t t e n d e d by t h e Work ing Group, t h e subcommi t tee p r e p a r e d a l i s t o f t h i r t y q u e s t i o n s t h a t c o n s t i t u t e d t h e b a s i s f o r t h e p r e p a r a t i o n and documen ta t i on o f a l l case s t u d i e s . T h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e can b e f o u n d i n t h e Append i x .

The f i r s t m e e t i n g o f t h e Work ing Group took p l a c e i n I s r a e l d u r i n g October 25-30, 1982. Members o f t h e Work ing Group i n a t t e n d a n c e were: Y . Y . Haimes (USA), J . K i n d l e r (Po land / l IASA), E . P l a t e (Federa l Republ i c o f Germany) , D . R o s b j e r g (Denmark), I . Dima (Romania), and D . Howel 1 ( A u s t r a l i a ) . J. G l a d w e l l r e p r e s e n t e d t h e Unesco S e c r e t a r i a t . The Work ing Group e l e c t e d M r . Ha i mes as i t s Chairman and i n s t r u c t e d t h e p l a n n i n g subcomi t t e e t o a c t as t h e E d i t o r i a l Board . F o l l o w i n g t h e mee t ing , U. Shamir ( I s r a e l ) j o i n e d t h e Work ing Group f o r m a l l y as an o b s e r v e r .

The nomina l g roup t e c h n i q u e (NGT) approach was adopted by t h e

Work ing Group f o r t h e p r e p r a t i o n o f t h e sou rce m a t e r i a l fo r t h i s vo lume. The s e s s i o n began w i t h b r i e f p r e s e n t a t i o n s o f t h e p r e v i o u s l y p r e p a r e d case s t u d i e s , r e f e r r i n g t o each o f t h e p l a n n i n g s t a g e s d e s c r i b e d i n t h e P a r i s r e p o r t o f t h e P l a n n i n g Subcommittee. The NGT t h e n proceeded as f o l l o w s :

1 . The o b j e c t i v e s of each p roposed c h a p t e r were d i s c u s s e d .

2 .

3 .

4 .

5 -

6 .

Idea g e n e r a t i o n f o l l o w e d , w i t h each p a r t i c i p a n t s u g g e s t i n g i tems t h a t s h o u l d be i n c l u d e d i n t h e chap te r under d i s c u s s i o n .

B r i e f d i s c u s s i o n , c l a r i f i c a t i o n , and a g g r e g a t i o n o f t h e ideas f o l lowed.

V o t i n g and r a n k i n g o f t h e ideas was then done i n o r d e r t o reduce t h e number t o a w o r k a b l e g roup f o r t h e n e x t s t e p . No ideas were d i scussed , however. The concept a t t h i s s t a g e was o n l y t o s e l e c t t h e most i m p o r t a n t ideas f o r l a t e r development .

Each p a r t i c i p a n t t h e n w r o t e h i s though ts about each o f t h e s e l e c t e d i deas . The comments were grouped b y i dea so t h a t t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s had t h e b e n e f i t o f a l l p r e v i o u s comments, and c o u l d comment on these as w e l l .

The comments on each i d e a were typed.

The Work ing Group a p p l i e d t h i s t e c h n i q u e t o t h e f i r s t f o u r p l a n n i n g s tages and t h e i n t r o d u c t o r y c h a p t e r .

The three-member Ed i t o r i a1 Board used t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e NGT w r i t e - u p s and t h e documenta t ion o f t h e case s t u d i e s ( w r i t t e n i n accordance w i t h t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e ment ioned above) as t h e b a s i s f o r t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e f i r s t d r a f t o f t h i s volume. The m a t e r i a l was m a i l e d t o a l l Work ing Group members f o r r e v i e w and comments.

The s e v e r a l members o f t h e Work ing Group met d u r i n g August 1983 ( i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e IUGG/IAHS

meet i ng) i n Hamburg, Federa l R e p u b l i c o f Germany, t o f u r t h e r d i s c u s s t h e p r o g r e s s on t h e f i r s t d r a f t .

I n i t s m e e t i n g d u r i n g J u l y 6-8, 1984 i n Budapest , Hungary ( i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l F e d e r a t i o n o f A u t o m a t i c C o n t r o l Congress) , t h e Ed i t o r i a 1 Board g e n e r a t e d t h e second d r a f t o f t h i s vo 1 ume .

F i n a l l y , i n i t s m e e t i n g d u r i n g June 24 -28 , 1985, i n P a r i s , t h e E d i t o r i a l Board i n c o r p o r a t e d t h e comments t h a t t h e Work ing Group had made on t h e second d r a f t and completed a f i n a l d r a f t f o r t h e Work ing G r o u p ’ s comments and approva 1 .

Only case s t u d i e s t h a t were submi t ted t o t h e E d i t o r i a l Board i n t h e fo rmat suggested by the q u e s t i o n n a i r e have been i n c l u d e d i n t h e Appendix o f t h i s volume ( w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f Case Study 10). I n o r d e r n o t t o i n a d v e r t e n t l y a l t e r t h e message in tended by t h e au tho rs o f t h e case s t u d i e s , no e d i t o r i a l work has been done on them. There fo re , t h e r e s p e c t i v e a u t h o r s o f t h e case s t u d i e s , and n o t t h e Working Group o r i t s E d i t o r i a l Board, t ake c r e d i t and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e Appendix.

The Work ing Group expresses i t s g r a t i t u d e f o r t h e o u t s t a n d i n g h o s p i t a l i t y i t r e c e i v e d i n I s r a e l d u r i n g i t s m e e t i n g and i t s a p p r e c i a t i o n f o r t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f t h e f o l l o w i n g c o l l e a g u e s f rom I s r a e l who p a r t i c i p a t e d i n t h e Works hop: ‘f.Argaman, Y . K o t t , M. Rebhun, J. Soroka, U. Shamir, Y . Bachmat, M. Ben Z v i , Y . D r e i z i n , D . Alkan, Y . Schwarz, Y . Segev and M. Waldrnan.

The c o n t r i b u t i o n s maae by F . Rohde (Federa l R e p u b l i c o f Germany) d u r i n g the Workshop a r e a l s o a p p r e c i a t e d .

The E d i t o r i a l Board would l i k e t o acknowledge t h e guidance and suppor t p r o v i d e d b y t h e I HP S e c r e t a r i a t t h r o u g h John G ladwe l l . M r . G ladwel l f o l l o w e d i n g r e a t d e t a i l the p r o g r e s s o f t h e Working Group and o f f e r e d i t s E d i t o r i a l Board i n v a l u a b l e s u g g e s t i o n s and improvements t h r o u g h o u t t h e d u r a t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t . We a l s o acknowledge t h e e f f o r t s o f t h e f o l l o w i n g peop le : Mrs. Helene Mantovani and Miss Eve 1 yne Rouma i n o f Unesco Headquar ters i n P a r i s f o r t h e i r v e r y h e l p f u l s e c r e t a r i a l a s s i s t a n c e ; M r s . V i r g i n i a Benade o f Case Western Reserve U n i v e r s i t y , C leve land, Ohio,

f o r her c a r e f u l and c o n s t r u c t i v e e d i t o r i a l work; and Mrs. Mary Ann P e l o t o f Case Western Reserve f o r her d e d i c a t i o n and s e c r e t a r i a l a s s i s t a n c e th roughou t t h e e n t i r e p r o j e c t .

T h i s volume i s addressed t o water resource p l a n n e r s and dec is ion-makers i n b o t h d e v e l o p i n g and developed c o u n t r i e s . I t i s i n t e n d e d t o be unders tood w i t h o u t ma jor p r i o r knowledge o f water r e s o u r c e s t e r m i n o l o g y , and i t can be used as an a i d f o r u n d e r g r a d u a t e c o u r s e s on water resources p l a n n i n g ( f o l l o w i n g an i n t r o d u c t o r y c o u r s e on systems a n a l y s i s ) . The f o l l o w i n g i s a comple te l i s t o f a l l members o f t h e Work ing Group:

D r . Sc. A l f r e d BECKER l n s t i t u t f u r W a s s e r w i r t s c h a f t DDR-1190 B E R L I N S c h n e l l e r s t r . 140 German Democra t ic Repub l ic

M r . I o n D l M A l n s t i t u t pour l a Ges t ion des Ressources en Eau (I.C.P.G.A.) S p l . lndependei 294 BUCAREST, Romania

P r o f . Yacov Y; HAIMES, Chairman Systems E n g i n e e r i n g Department Case I n s t i t u t e o f Technology Case Western Reserve U n i v e r s i t y CLEVELAND, Ohio 44106, USA

Dr. Janusz KINDLER I n s t i t u t e o f E n v i r o n m e n t a l Eng i neer i ng Warsaw T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y u l .Nowowiejska 20 00-653 WARSAW Po 1 and

Mrs.Grammatik i PAPADOPETROU-TSINGOS l n g e n i e u r C i v i l S e r v i c e de 1 'Economie de 1 'Eau M i n i s t e r e des Travaux P u b l i c s C h a r i l a o u T r i k o u p i 182 ATH ENES Grece

P r o f e s s o r E r i c h J. PLATE (PSC) l n s t i t u t Wasserbau I l l an d e r

K a i s e r s t r a s s e 12 75 KARLSRUHE 1 Federa l R e p u b l i c o f Germany

U n i v e r s i t a t K a r l s r u h e

D r . Dan ROSBJERG A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y o f Denmark OK-2800 LYNGBY Denmar k

Observer :

P r o f e s s o r U r i SHAMIR Department o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g Techn ion I s r a e l I n s t i t u t e o f Technology Techn ion C i t y , H A I F A 3 2 000 I s r a e l

D r . D.T. HOWELL A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r U n i v e r s i t y o f South Wales New South Wales A u s t r a l i a

Contents

Introduction 1

1 . The Systems Approach in Water Resources Project Planning ......................................... 1 . 1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t and p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g ..... 1.2 Water r e s o u r c e s systems and models ................................. 1.4 Stages i n water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g ................................. 1.5 The p l a n n i n g process ............................................... 1.3 L e v e l s o f dec is ion-mak ing ..........................................

1 . 6 Advantages and ( c u r r e n t ) d isadvantages o f t h e systems approach t o water resources .................................................

1 . 7 References ......................................................... 2 . Plan Initiation and Preliminary Planning ...............................................................................

2.1 Problem f o r m u l a t i o n ................................................ 2.2 Dependency o f p l a n f o r m u l a t i o n on "non-water" s e c t o r s .............. 2.3 Statement o f p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s .................................... 2.4 P r o j e c t c o n s t r a i n t s ................................................ 2.6 S e l e c t i o n and u t i l i z a t i o n o f e x p e r t s ............................... 2.7 P u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n ............................................... 2.9 References .........................................................

2.5 Agencies and personne l i n v o l v e d ....................................

2 .8 P r e l i m i n a r y s e l e c t i o n o f systems a n a l y s i s t o o l s ....................

3 . Data Collection and Processing ............................................................................................. 3.1 s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f d a t a needs ........................................ 3.2 Data adequacy ...................................................... 3.3 Data a c q u i s i t i o n ................................................... 3.4 Data q u a l i t y c o n t r o l ............................................... 3.5 Data p r o c e s s i n g and s c r e e n i n g ...................................... 3.6 Data i n f o r m a t i o n systems ........................................... 3.7 References .........................................................

4 . Formulation and Screening of Project Alternatives ........................................................... 4 . 1 4.2 4 . 3 4.4 4.5 4 . 6 4 . 7 4.8

4.9 4 .10

Overv iew o f t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s s t a g e s .................. C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s ..................................... G e n e r a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s ......................................... Model c r e d i b i l i t y and model c a l i b r a t i o n ............................ I n t e r a c t i o n between a n a l y s t and dec is ion-maker ..................... C o m p a t i b i l i t y w i t h o t h e r p l a n s and p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n ............ Procedures and t e c h n i q u e s f o r s c r e e n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s ............... Use of h i e r a r c h i c a l a n a l y s i s i n p l a n f o r m u l a t i o n and s c r e e n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s ......................................... Use o f m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s ...................................... References .........................................................

5

5 6 9

11 1 3

1 4 18

2 3

23 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 3 2

3 3

3 3 34 35

3 6 37 3E 32

4 1

4 1 4 2 43 44 45 46 47

48 49 5 1

5 . Development of Final Study Results ........................................................................................ 53

5.1 5 .2 5 . 3 5 . 4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12

The r e l a t i o n s h i p between s tages 3 and 4 ............................ 53 I n p u t t o and o u t p u t from s tage 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 4 Sources. q u a l i t y and c a t e g o r i e s o f s t a g e 4 d a t a needs .............. 55 The r o l e o f mode l ing . s i m u l a t i o n and o p t i m i z a t i o n . ................. 57 R i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y ............................................... 58 S e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s ............................................... 60 U n c e r t a i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s .................. 6 1 Impact a n a l y s i s and p o l i c y a n a l y s i s ................................ 62 Mode l (s ) a s p a r t o f t h e s t u d y p r o d u c t .............................. 62 P l a n n i n g for o p e r a t i o n ............................................. 63

References ......................................................... 65 Modes o f p r e s e n t i n g t h e p l a n t o t h e dec i s ion -makers ................ 64

6 . Developing the Case Studies ................................................................................................... 67

6.1 The example case s t u d y ............................................. 67 6 .2 I n s t r u c t i o n s used i n f o r m u l a t i n g t h e case s t u d i e s .................. 67 6.3 The pu rpose and scope o f t h e q u e s t i o n s ............................. 69 6 . 4 Some c o n c l u s i o n s f r o m t h e case s t u d i e s ............................. 72

75 Appendix I : The Questionnaire ...................................................................................................

Appendix II : Case Studies ............................................................................................................ 1 . P ' lann ing a System f o r F l o o d P r o t e c t i o n R e s e r v o i r s f o r t h e S u l m Catchment

77

i n t h e Federa l R e p u b l i c o f Germany, by E.J. P l a t e ....................... 73

2 . Development o f Water Supp ly Schemes i n t h e Eas te rn Neger. I s r a e l . General D e s c r i p t i o n . b y D . A lkan ................................................ 91

3 . Long Term I n t e g r a t e d P l a n n i n g o f t h e D r i n k i n g Water Supply i n t h e P r o v i n c e o f South H o l l a n d (The N e t h e r l a n d s ) : IODZH. b y A.H.M. B resse r ... 99

4 . P o s t E v a l u a t i o n o f t h e P l a n n i n g Process i n t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Leve l -B Study. b y Y . Y . Haimes. K . Sung. L.T. Crook. D . Gregorka ......... 113

5 . The P l a n n i n g Process i n t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n k d e l a i d e Water Resources Study o f June 1978. by D.T. Howe l l ............................................ 1 3 1

6 . Pos t E v a l u a t i o n o f t h e P l a n n i n g Process i n t h e V i s t u l a R i v e r Bas in . . . .................................. Poland. by 2 Kaczmarek and J K i n d l e r 139

7 . Development o f a Water Resources Management Model f o r t h e Susaa Catchment i n Denmark. b y D . Rosb je rg .................................... 143

8 . Management o f I s r a e l ' s Water Resources. by U . Shamir .................... 1%

9 . Promot ion o f M u l t i p u r p o s e Water Management F a c i l i t i e s i n t h e T i r n a v a Mare Bas in . b y P . S t e g a r o i u . I . D i m a . R . Amaf t i ese i and V . V i s a n ........ 163

10 . A p p l i c a t i o n o f S i m u l a t i o n Techniques i n Water Resources P l a n n i n g i n t h e German Democra t i c R e p u b l i c . by A . Becker and D . Kozersk i ............... 17s

Introduction

The i n t e r n a t i o n a l l i t e r a t u r e on water resources p l a n n i n g i n c l u d e s many a p p l i c a t i o n s o f systems a n a ! y s i s and o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h techn i ques t o wa te r resources p r o j e c t s . E x c e l l e n t t ex tbooks e x i s t on v a r i o u s a s p e c t s ( f o r example, Wiener 1972; Haimes 1977; Goodman 1984; Cohon 1978; Loucks e t a l . 19811, and numerous problem methods a r e a v a i l a b l e fo r f i n d i n g optimum s o l u t i o n s o r good compromises (Goicocchea e t a l . 1982; Haimes e t a l . 1975) .

The need t o f i n d optimum s o l u t i o n s i n w a t e r resources i s c o m p e l l i n g indeed. The more we l o o k i n t o t h e development p r o s p e c t s o f any o f t h e c o u n t r i e s o f t h e w o r l d , t h e more we p e r c e i v e t h a t f u t u r e g rowth i s a lmos t everywhere s e v e r e l y c o n s t r a i n e d by t h e sho r tage o f wa te r o f s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y , a s h o r t a g e wh ich o n l y i n r a r e cases can be overcome by making new resources a v a i l a b l e . I n g e n e r a l , we must make b e t t e r use o f t h e a v a i l a b l e wa te r , and we must employ b e t t e r methods f o r c o n s e r v a t i o n , d i s t r i b u t i o n , and p u r i f i c a t i o n . The s e v e r i t y of t h e s e problems has been recogn ized , and i n t e r n a t i o n a l and n a t i o n a l programmes have h e l p e d t o d i s s e m i n a t e i n f o r m a t i o n on wa te r problems and t o draw t h e a t t e n t i o n o f p u b l i c and p o l i t i c a l b o d i e s - such as t h e Mar d e l P l a t a Water Conference o f t h e UN i n 1977 and t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l D r i n k i n g Water Supp ly and S a n i t a t i o n Decade Programme - t o such prob lems. S c i e n t i f i c s u p p o r t programmes p r o l i f e r a t e , such as SCOPE, HOMS, and the Unesco I n t e r n a t i ona 1 H y d r o l o g i c a l Programme. I n a l l o f these, o p t i m i z a t i o n o r systems a n a l y s i s techn iques a r e w i d e l y recommended.

I t t h e r e f o r e i s s t r a n g e t o f i n d t h a t , i n compar ison w i t h t h e

e x t e n s i v e l i t e r a t u r e on t h e methods o f systems a n a l y s i s , t h e r e have been few r e p o r t s of t h e s u c c e s s f u l i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f such methods. I t seems t h a t a gap e x i s t s between t h e s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t o f systems a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s and t h e i r c u r r e n t use i n p r a c t i c e . A r e c e n t r e p o r t by Loucks e t a l . (1984) has i n d i c a t e d t h a t o n l y a sma l l p a r t o f t h e s t u d i e s o f

systems w h i c h w a t e r r e s o u r c e s were r e p o r t e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e were a c t u a l l y used by t h e dec i s ion -makers for whom t h e y were i n tended . S i n c e t h e p u b l i s h e d l i t e r a t u r e i s o n l y a vague i n d i c a t o r o f what i s g o i n g on i n t h e p r a c t i c i n G r e a l wor ld, a w o r k i n g 9 r OUP w i t h i n t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l H y d r o l o g i c a l Programme was e s t a b l i s h e d and i t was a s s i g n e d t h e t a s k o f f i n d i n g out wha t has been t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e member c o u n t r i e s t h a t use systems a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s . T h i s g roup, c a l l e d t h e Work ing Group on IHP Prob lem A.4 .3 .1 , was i n i t i a t e d b y a m e e t i n g o f t h e p l a n n i n g subcommi t tee .

The Work ing G r o u p ' s p l a n n i n g subcommit tee, a t i t s f i r s t m e e t i n g i n P a r i s i n 1981, r e v i e w e d t h e s i t u a t i o n and a r r i v e d a t t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t i t wou ld n o t be s u f f i c i e n t t o v i e w t h e success o r f a i l u r e o f systems a n a l y s i s i n t h e o v e r a l l c o n t e x t o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s management and p l a n n i n g : t h e g r o u p s h o u l d a l s o i d e n t i f y t h e l e v e l s and s tages o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s and p e r c e i v e t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of methods as s p e c i f i c t o them. On ly i n t h i s way c o u l d t h e p r e s e n t p l a c e o f systems z n a l y s i s i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s be ' r e c o g n i z e d and a d i f f e r e n t i a t e d s ta temen t c o n c e r n i n g t h e acceptance o f systems a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s be deve loped. I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e p l ann i ng subcommi t tee adopted t h e n o t i o n t h a t t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s addresses , and must b e r e s p o n s i v e

-2 -

t o , many a s p e c t s o f water resources p l a n n i n g (e.g. , h y d r o l o g i c a l , s c i e n t i f i c , t e c h n o l o g i c a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l , and d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g ) . Hav ing accepted t h i s i dea , t h e group agreed t h a t i t s e f f o r t s h o u l d o f f e r a framework t h a t would e n a b l e the q u a n t i t a t i v e aspec ts o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g t o be i n t e g r a t e d w i t h t h e more s u b j e c t i v e / v a l u e judgment and q u a l i t a t i v e a s p e c t s o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g process - a

p o l i t i c a l - i n s t i t u t i o n a l t r a d e - o f f s w i t h dynam i c and d r i f t i n g o b j e c t i ves . The p l a n n i n g subcommi t tee a l s o aGreed on t h e f o l l o w i n g o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s p r o j e c t s :

p r o c e s s i n f l u e n c e d by

(1) P r o v i d e a systems framework f o r t h e p l a n n i n g process i n water r e s o u r c e s development .

(2) Cast o p e r a t i o n s research /sys tems e n g i n e e r i n g i n t o t h e c o n t e x t o f a r e a l - w o r l d water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g env i ronment .

(3) P r o v i d e i n s t r u c t i o n a l m a t e r i a l t h a t can be used t o teach w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g .

To i l l u s t r a t e t h e b r e a d t h o f t h e water resources p l a n n i n g p rocess , t h e f o l l o w i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i v e premises were i d e n t i f i e d t o s e r v e as gu idance t o

Work ing Group.

Water r e s o u r c e s systems most o f t e n have m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s , use, and f u n c t i o n s .

The c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e s c i e n t i f i c and t e c h n o l o g i c a l a s p e c t s o f water r e s o u r c e s p r o b 1 ems i s a necessary c o n d i t i o n f o r a s u c c e s s f u l p l a n n i n g process , b u t n o t s u f f i c i e n t : i n s t i t u t i o n a l and o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a r e e s s e n t i a l .

M u l t i p l e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , who r e p r e s e n t v a r i ous c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , needs, and a s p i r a t i o n s , a r e commonly i n v o l v e d i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s and thus shou ld be p r o p e r l y accounted f o r i n t h e p rocess .

Elements o f r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y c h a r a c t e r i z e most, i f n o t a l l , water resources systems.

The p l a n n i n g process i s h i e r a r c h i c a l i n n a t u r e , as i s t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g process .

The components o f p rob lem d e f i n i t i o n and f o r m u l a t i o n , d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , and model i ng c o n s t i t u t e a more dominant e f f o r t i n t h e p l a n n i n g process than t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n per se.

The process o f w a t e r resources p l a n n i n g i n v o l v e s e x p e r t s f rom many d i f f e r e n t d i s c i p l i n e s , such as hydro1 ogy, e n g i n e e r i n g , economics, p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l

Based , on these concepts , the p l a n n i n g subcommit tee des igned a genera l scheme o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s , i d e n t i f y i n g s i x s tages r a n g i n g f rom p r o j e c t i n i t i a t i o n t o management o f t h e comple te p r o j e c t . They dev i sed a s e t o f t h i r t y q u e s t i o n s on these s tages , and t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e was s e n t t o a l l members o f t h e Work ing Group w i t h a r e q u e s t t o p r e s e n t case s t u d i e s f rom t h e i r c o u n t r i e s by answer ing t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e .

The r e s u l t s o f t hese a c t i v i t i e s a r e found i n t h i s book. I t s purpose i s t o d i s c u s s and e x p l a i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s w i t h emphasis on t h e use o f systems a n a l y s i s , and t o i l l u s t r a t e t h i s p r o c e s s by means o f d i f f e r e n t examples t a k e n f rom t h e exper iences o f w a t e r resources eng ineers end s c i e n t i s t s f rom many d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s . I n genera l , we p e r c e i v e t h e p l a n n i n g process as a sequence o f d e c i s i o n s a t many d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s and by many d i f f e r e n t groups o f e x p e r t s and concerned persons whose o b j e c t i v e i s t o p r o v i d e a s o l u t i o n o r s o l u t i o n s t o l a r g e - s c a l e problems, i n our case i n v o l v i n g t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f water resources . T h i s p r o c e s s can be subd iv ided i n t o d i f f e r e n t but i n t e r r e l a t e d s tages , each w i t h i t s own c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and subproblems, by means o f .a model o f t h e p l a n n i n g process , w h i c h p r o v i d e s a genera l framework f o r t he case s t u d i e s , T h i s genera l f ramework i s descr ibe ,d

-3-

i n t h e f i r s t f i v e c h a p t e r s ; t h e s i x t h chap te r p rov i des t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h e case s t u d i e s , wh ich a r e appended t o the book .

I n our d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess , we use t e r m i n o l o g i e s and terms t h a t a r e u n d e r s t a n d a b l e t o eng inee rs and p l a n n e r s , and t h e d i s c u s s i o n i s i n genera l terms, l e a v i n g a n a l y t i c a l d e t a i l s t o t h e case s t u d i e s o r t o t h e l i t e r a t u r e t o wh ich r e f e r e n c e i s made as a p p r o p r i a t e . I t i s n o t t h e purpose t o p o i n t o u t a n a l y t i c a l s o l u t i o n s ; indeed, t h e case s t u d i e s i l l u s t r a t e why a n a l y t i c a l s o l u t i o n s may o f t e n n o t be needed. N a t u r a l l y we recommend t h a t systems a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s and o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h be used whenever a p p l i c a b l e , b u t we r e a l i z e t h a t an optimum r e a l - w o r l d so: u t i on does n o t necessar I 1 y c o n s i s t of a s o l u t i o n w h i c h i s , m a t h e m a t i c a l l y speak ing , t h e t r u e optimum. The r e a l - w o r l d opt imum i s u s u a l l y t h e compromise s o l u t i o n on w h i c h a l l p a r t i e s i n v o l v e d i n t h e p l a n n i n g process can agree, and we emphas i ze i n t h i s book t h e a n a l y t i c a l aspec ts o f t h i s p r o c e s s .

The p l a n n i n g 'p rocess as h e r e d e s c r i b e d n o t o n l y encompasses t h e s tages t h a t l e a d t o t h e d e s i g n o f s t r u c t u r e s i n a new p r o j e c t ; i t can a l s o be a p p l i e d t o e x i s t i n g systems on w h i c h new demands a r e made, o r t o p r o j e c t s wh ich have l i t t l e t o do w i t h s t r u c t u r e s , such as g e n e r a l water p l a n s o r r e g i o n a l development p l a n s . The p l ann i ng p rocess i n c l u d e s many a s p e c t s o f o p e r a t i o n and maintenance, a1 though t h e s e s tages o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess a r e n o t d e t a i l e d he re . The book i s n o t concerned w i t h t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n and management s tages t h a t a r e p a r t o f any p r o j e c t i n v o l v i n g s t r u c t u r e s and equipment i n i t s imp lemen ta t i on . I t i s hoped t h a t t h i s book w i l l convey t o t h e readers a sense t h a t t h e systems approach can p r o v i d e one w i t h a method b y means o f w h i c h wa te r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g can be s t r u c t u r e d and made amenable t o ana l ys i s .

T h i s book has the f o l l o w i n g o b j ec t i ves :

1 . Document and e v a l u a t e t h e a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f systems a n a l y s i s used i n t h e v a r i o u s s t a g e s o f t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g p rocess .

2 . C o n t r i b u t e t o t h e deve lopment o f a common approach f o r p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g i n wa te r r e s o u r c e s .

3 . A r t i c u l a t e p rob lems t h a t may d e f e r a p p l i c a t i o n of systems a n a l y s i s and p l a n acceptance; and, perhaps , p r o v i d e t h e means o f overcoming them.

4 . Serve as a t e x t b o o k f o r Unesco cou rses on w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g .

The q u e s t i o n n a i r e t h a t was p r e p a r e d f o r each o f t h e p l a n n i n g s t a g e s and t h a t was used as a g u i d e l i n e f o r t h e case s t u d i e s i s p r e s e n t e d as Appendix 1

Re fe rences

Cohon, J .L . 1978. M u l t i o b j e c t i v e Programming and P l a n n i n g . Academic Press , New York .

Goicoechea, A . , D . Hansen, and L . D u c k s t e i n . 1982. I n t r o d u c t i o n t o M u l t i o b j e c t i v e A n a l y s i s w i t h E n g i n e e r i n g and Bus i ness A p p l i c a t i o r l s . W i l e y , New York .

Goodman, A . S . 1984. P r i n c i p l e s o f Water Resources P l a n n i n g , P r e n t i ce- Hal 1 , E ng 1 ewood C l i f f s , NJ.

Haimes, Y . Y . 1977. H i e r a r c h i c a l Ana lyses o f Water Resources Systems : Model i ng and O p t i m i z a t i o n o f L a r g e - s c a l e Systems. McGraw-Hi l l , New York .

Haimes, Y.Y. , W . A . H a l l , and H. Freedman. 1975. M u l t i o b j e c t i v e O p t i m i z a t i o n i n Water Resources Systems: The S u r r o g a t e Wor th Trade- O f f Method. E l s e v i e r , Amsterdam.

Loucks, D.?., J.R. S t e d i n g e r , and D . A . H a i t h . 1981. Water Resources Systems P l a n n i n g and Ana 1 y i s . P r e n t i c e Ha l 1 , Englewood C l i f f s , NJ.

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Loucks,D.P., J.R. S t e d i n g e r , and U. Wiener , A . 1972. The Ro le o f Water Shamir . 1984. Research i n i n Deve 1 opment . McGraw-Hi l l , Water Resources and New York. E n v i r o n m e n t a l P o l i c y M o d e l l i n g : Some h i s t o r i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s , c u r r e n t i ssues , and f u t u r e d i r e c t i o n s . N a t u r a l Resources Forum. V o l . 8, h0.3 .

1. The systems approach in water resources project planning

The process o f b r i n g i n g a p r o j e c t i n t o e x i s t e n c e can be though t o f as c o n s i s t i n g o f t h r e e phases :

Phase 1. Planning

Stage 1 . P l a n i n i t i a t i o n and p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g

Stage 2 . Data c o l l e c t i o n and p r o c e s s i n g

Stage 3. F o r m u l a t i o n o f and s c r e e n i n g and p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s

Stage 4 . Development o f f i n a l p r o j e c t s p e c i f i c a t i o n

Stage 5. P r o j e c t d e s i g n

Phase 2. Implementation

Phase 3. Project Operation

The o v e r a l 1 process i s shown s c h e m a t i c a l l y i n F i g u r e 1 . 1 . The scope o f t h i s book i s l i m i t e d t o Phase 1 , f o c u s s i n g on t h e p l a n n i n g o f r e g i o n a l water p r o j e c t s t h a t a r e i n i t i a t e d i n response t o t h e s p e c i f i c economic and s o c i a l needs o f a r e g i o n o r n a t i o n . These p r o j e c t s may be o f a s t r u c t u r a l o r n o n s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r : t h e y may b e o f a s i n g l e - o r m u l t i p l e - p u r p o s e n a t u r e ; however, t h e i r a n a l y s i s must a lways be m u l t i o b j e c t i v e i n c h a r a c t e r . Th i s I S because e v a l u a t i o n o f p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s must a lways be c a r r i e d o u t w i t h i n t h e b road spect rum o f o b j e c t i v e s , and v a r i o u s p r o j e c t impacts must be taken i n t o account . Phase 1 , t h e p l a n n i n g process , c o n s i s t s o f a number o f s tages . Each o f these s tages has a d e f i n i t e f u n c t i o n and i s s e p a r a t e d more o r l e s s d i s t i n c t l y i n t i m e f rom o t h e r s tages . A l though o n l y t h e p l a n n i n g phase and i t s f i v e s tages a r e c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s book, t h e p l a n n i n g process needs t o t a k e cognizance o f Phase 2 and Phase 3 and use t h e i r i n g r e d i e n t s f o r p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g purposes. These l a s t two phases, o f course , depend on t h e f i r s t , and they can a l s o l ead t o f u t u r e p r o j e c t s .

The p l a n n i n g process i s d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s chap te r as c o n s i s t i n g o f s t a g e s r e l a t e d t o d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . We b e g i n w i t h i n t r o d u c t o r y remarks on t h e n a t u r e o f water r e s o u r c e s systems and t h e i r p l a n n i n g and t h e n p r e s e n t a genera l framework f o r t h e p l a n n i n g process . The concept o f t h e p l a n n i n g process i s summarized i n F i g u r e 1 . 1 , wh ich p r o v i d e s t h e s t r u c t u r e f o r t h e r e m a i n i n g c h a p t e r s o f t h e book.

1.1 Characteristics of water resources project and project planning

A water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t i s a s e t o f s t r u c t u r a l o r n o n s t r u c t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s f o r t h e purpose o f d e v e l o p i n g o r improv ing e x i s t i n g water r e s o u r c e s f o r t h e b e n e f i t o f human use. The u l t i m a t e goa l o f water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g and management i s t o se rve t h e p u b l i c w e l l - b e i n g - t o ensure t h a t w a t e r w i l l be a v a i l a b l e , i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y , a t t h e r i g h t l o c a t i o n , and a t t h e r i g h t t i m e , and t o p r o t e c t human a c t i v i t i e s f r o m t h e ha rmfu l e f f e c t s o f w a t e r ; a l l t h i s must b e done w i t h i n accepted l e v e l s o f assurance.

Water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g i s a l o g i c a l c o u r s e o f a c t i o n s l e a d i n g t o t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e b e s t a c c e p t a b l e p r o j e c t i n response t o an i d e n t i f i e d need. Because o f t h e w ide r e g i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f s u r f a c e w a t e r and groundwater resources , w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g i s a lways v e r y b road i n scope. Such p l ann i ng r e q u i r e s t h a t many d i f f e r e n t uses o f water be c o n s i d e r e d and e v a l u a t e d , l e a d i n g t o t h e a r t i c u l a t i o n o f t r a d e - o f f s among c o n f l i c t i n g and compet ing o b j e c t i v e s . I t r e q u i r e s t h a t d e c i s i o n s be made on many d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s , r a n g i n g f r o m n a t i o n a l o r even i n t e r n a t i o n a l w a t e r p l a n s t o r e g i o n a l o r l o c a l p r o j e c t s and i n v o l v i n g e x p e r t s and d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s who have d i f f e r e n t

-6 -

backgrounds and who a r e o f t e n n o t w a t e r - c o g n i z a n t : p o l i t i c i a n s , l awyers , and s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s . The o b j e c t i v e s t h a t such a v a r i e d g roup c o n s i d e r i m p o r t a n t f o r a p a r t i c u l a r w a t e r p r o j e c t many d i f f e r v e r y w i d e l y . Water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g t h e r e f o r e r e q u i r e s a p l a n n i n g team t h a t i s w e l l c o o r d i n a t e d and i n agreement on t h e o b j e c t i v e s and scope o f t h e p r o j e c t , who can p r e s e n t a f i n a l p r o j e c t p l a n t h a t r e p r e s e n t s t h e agreement o f a l l team members. T h i s i s n o t an easy t a s k , because w a t e r r e s o u r c e s a r e s u b j e c t t o n a t u r a l v a r i a t i o n s , and f u t u r e changes i n demography and economy a r e d i f f i c u l t t o p r e d i c t . T h i s i s a ma jo r way t h a t e lemen ts o f u n c e r t a i n t y e n t e r t h e p rocess : t h e s e e lemen ts a r e e s s e n t i a l , and i n many cases dominant , f e a t u r e s o f wa te r p r o j ec t s . Other compl i c a t i o n s s p e c i f i c t o w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s a r e due t o t h e f a c t t h a t many wa te r r e s o u r c e s dec i s i ons a r e i r r e v e r s i b l e . For i n s t a n c e , a dam t h a t has been b u i l t i n a r i v e r v a l l e y e x i s t s p r a c t i c a l l y f o r e v e r , r e g a r d l e s s o f whether t h e r e i s a need for i t o r n o t ; i t w i l l never b e p o s s i b l e t o r e s t o r e t h e s i t e t o i t s o r i g i n a l c o n d i t i o n , even i f s o c i e t y i s w i l l i n g t o p r o v i d e f u n d s f o r t h e removal o f a dam t h a t i s no l o n g e r needed.

Because o f t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e i s s u e s i n v o l v e d i n wa te r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g and because o f t h e l a r g e consequences t h a t r e s u l t f r o m d e c i s i o n s on w a t e r p r o j e c t s , p l a n n i n g methods must b e employed w h i c h can h a n d l e such prob lems. T h i s i s how t h e systems approach e n t e r s t h e a n a l y s i s o f wa te r p r o j e c t s .

1.2 Water resources systems and models

A p h y s i c a l w a t e r r e s o u r c e s systems i s a c o l l e c t i o n o f v a r i o u s e lemen ts - f o r example, r e s e r v o i r s , p i p e l i n e s , and o t h e r s t r u c t u r e s - w h i c h i n t e r a c t i n a l o g i c a l manner and a r e d e s i g n e d i n response t o var i ous s o c i a l needs. Water r e s o u r c e s systems a n a l y s i s i s an approach b y w h i c h t h e components o f a sys tem and t h e i r i n t e r a c t i o n s a r e d e s c r i b e d b y means o f ma themat i ca l

o r l o g i c a l f u n c t i o n s . I n g e n e r a l , systems a n a l y s i s i s t h e s t u d y o f a l l t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s o f t h e components. Very o f t e n systems a n a l y s i s i s concerned w i t h f i n d i n g t h a t c o m b i n a t i o n o f components wh ich genera tes an optimum, i . e . , a system wh ich c o n s i s t s o f t h e b e s t p o s s i b l e c o m b i n a t i o n o f e lements f o r s a t i s f y i n g t h e d e s i r e d o b j e c t i v e . T h i s s t a t e m e n t s h o u l d n o t be i n t e r p r e t e d as r e q u i r i n g t h a t t h e use o f system models m u s t l e a d t o an optimum s o l u t i o n i n t h e ma themat i ca l sense, i n wh ich an o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n i s m i n i m i z e d o r maximized. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i n wa te r resources systems, more emphasis and e f f o r t have been focussed on o p t i m i z a t i o n techn iques t h a n on more r e a l i s t i c ma themat i ca l models.

There a r e two reasons f o r t h e overemphasis on o p t i m i z a t i o n techn iques :

a) Abundant o p t i m i z a t i o n techn iques a r e a v a i l a b l e i n f i e l d s o t h e r t h a n water resources e n g i n e e r i n g , such as o p e r a t i o n s research , systems e n g i n e e r i n g , and c o n t r o l t heo ry .

b) The m a s t e r y o f o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s r e q u i r e s f a r l e s s exper ience , e f f o r t , and p r o f e s s i o n a l m a t u r i t y t han t h e mas te ry of systems mode l ing . Consequent ly , i t has been q u i t e common t o a p p l y o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o p o o r l y c o n s t r u c t e d models, w h i c h o f t e n r e p r e s e n t a d i s t o r t i o n o f t h e r e a l p h y s i c a l system and a r e t h u s m i s l e a d i n g i f n o t e r roneous .

There i s a p r e s e n t t r e n d toward a c h i e v i n g a b e t t e r b a l a n c e between systems m o d e l i n g and i t s a s s o c i a t e d o p t i m i z a t i o n techn iques .

I f systems a n a l y s i s methods a r e t o b e employed i n t h e s t u d y o f a w a t e r r e s o u r c e s system, t h e l a t t e r must s a t i s f y a number o f c o n d i t i o n s . F i r s t o f a l l , i t must be p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f o b j e c t s w h i c h f o r m t h e system and t o s e p a r a t e them l o g i c a l l y and f u n c t i o n a l l y f r o m a l l o t h e r e lements o f t h e p l a n n i n g r e g i o n . Thus, a b r i d g e i s t o be seen as an o b j e c t w h i c h irnnericx (or t ines not irnnPdP)

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r i v e r f l o w s - i f i t does, i t becomes p a r t o f t h e system o f conveyance channe ls o v e r w h i c h i t leads ; i f n o t , i t can be l e f t o u t . Second, we must be a b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e e lements and be a b l e t o d e s c r i b e t h e i r f u n c t i o n s , i . e . , t o d e v e l o p a p rocess model f o r each component, and we must b e a b l e t o q u a n t i f y t h e i r r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e o t h e r e lements o f t h e system. T h i r d , one has t o b e a b l e t o combine and/or c o o r d i n a t e component models and t o d e f i n e o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s i n such a way t h a t t h e o b j e c t i v e s t o be o p t i m i z e d can be expressed i n terms o f t h e systems v a r i a b l e s .

Systems a n a l y s i s may be used t o f i n d a " b e s t accep tab le " s o l u t i o n . But t h i s i s n o t i t s o n l y purpose. O f t e n i t i s a p p l i e d for " s t r u c t u r i ng" a water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t . By s t r u c t u r i n g i t i s meant t h a t t h e systems elements a r e drawn i n t o a b l o c k d iagram and connected by means o f l o g i c a l s t a t e m e n t s . When a sys tem i s rep resen ted i n t h e fo rm o f such a d iagram, i t i s e a s i e r t o "see" how d i f f e r e n t components must i n t e r a c t f o r t h e system t o p e r f o r m p r o p e r l y , o r how t h e system' i n t e r a c t s w i t h i t s env i ronment . By i s o l a t i n g subsystems o f t h e wa te r resources system, t h e i r per fo rmance can be t e s t e d and a n a l y z e d s e p a r a t e l y . I n t h i s manner, t h e systems approach g i v e s t r a n s p a r e n c y t o t h e p l a n n i n g process and s i m p l i f i e s t h e d i s c u s s i o n o n a l l l e v e l s o f t h e dec i s ion -mak ing process ; and i t e a s i l y p e r m i t s a d d i t i o n or d e l e t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t components o r i n t e r a c t i o n s .

The systems approach i s e s p e c i a l l y u s e f u l when a p r o j e c t becomes so l a r g e t h a t i t canno t be c o n s i d e r e d as a u n i t , n e c e s s i t a t i n g i t s decompos i t i on ( d i s a g g r e g a t i o n ) . I n contemporary p r o j e c t s , systems a r e so l a r g e o r complex t h a t t h e y can o n l y be ana lyzed w i t h t h e a i d of computers. These a r e needed because o f t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s - f o r example, dynamic systems t h a t have non1 i near i n t e r a c t i o n s - o r because o f t h e m u l t i t u d e of purposes o r p o s s i b l e comb ina t ions o f systems e lements , o r

because o f t h e need t o i n c o r p o r a t e s t o c h a s t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n t o t h e

W i t h i n t h e sys tern framework o f compu te r -a ided systems a n a l y s i s , t h e p l a n n e r has t o r e c o g n i z e t h e e x i s t e n c e o f

ana 1 ys i s .

( i ) m u l t i p l e c o n s t i t u e n c i e s

( i i ) m u l t i p l e dec i s ion -makers a t many l e v e l s o f t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e

( i i i ) m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s t h a t a r e noncommensurable and a r e o f t e n i n c o n f l i c t and/or c o m p e t i t i o n

( i v ) m u l t i p l e purposes and/or uses o f t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s system

(v) e lements o f r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t i e s

These c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d i c t a t e t h a t t h e p l a n n i n g team b e composed o f e x p e r t s who r e p r e s e n t t h e m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y / i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y n a t u r e o f t h e i s s u e s b e i n g cons ide red .

However, systems a n a l y s i s i s n o t an approach t h a t can be used a u t o m a t i c a l l y and w i t h o u t t h i n k i n g . U s u a l l y , t h e g r e a t e s t e f f o r t o f t h e a n a l y s t i s t o reduce t h e system t o a manageable r e p r e s e n t a t i o n w i t h o u t d e s t r o y i n g i t s e s s e n t i a l f e a t u r e s and r e l a t i o n s h i p s . The a n a l y s t may o v e r l o o k i m p o r t a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s because he may l a c k access t o a l l necessary d a t a , and u s u a l l y t i m e i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t i n an a c t u a l p l a n n i n g env i ronmen t t o d e v e l o p t h e i d e a l model and t e s t i t t o i t s f u l l e s t e x t e n t o r t o s u b j e c t i t t o t h e s c r u t i n y o f s e v e r a l e x p e r t s .

T y p i c a l mode ls i n c l u d e p rocess models, i . e . , ma themat i ca l models w h i c h d e s c r i b e t h e p h y s i c a l and o t h e r p rocesses symbo l i zed b y sys tem e lements : i n p u t - o u t p u t models o f w a t e r q u a n t i t y and w a t e r q u a l i t y parameters f o r r i v e r s , r e s e r v o i r s , g roundwater , and d i s t r i b u t i o n systems, such as p i p e - l i n e s and cana 1 s . Process mode ls can be c o n s i d e r e d as r e p r e s e n t i n g p u r e l y s t a t i c r e l a t i o n s , such as t h e r i v e r s t a g e - d i s c h a r g e r e l a t i o n s h i p , or

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t h e y can r e p r e s e n t dynamic p rocesses such as t h e o u t f l o w - f r o m a r e s e r v o i r , o r t h e m o t i o n o f a f l o o d wave i n t h e r i v e r channe l . These models i n t h e i r u s u a l f o rm a r e o f t h e d e t e r m i n i s t i c k i n d , b u t w i t h i n t h e f ramework o f systems a n a l y s i s i t m i g h t b e necessary t o c o n s i d e r s t o c h a s t i c o r n o n - d e t e r m i n i s t i c aspec ts , such as t h o s e due t o t h e t i m e v a r i a b i l i t y o f t h e r u n o f f p rocess or t h e random n a t u r e o f t h e r u n o f f c o e f f i c i e n t s . The p r o c e s s mode 1 s a r e o f t e n p a r t o f c o n v e n t i o n a l d e s i g n p rocedures and t h e r e f o r e a r e f a m i l i a r t o p l a n n i n g e n g i n e e r s . But systems a n a l y s i s , i n a d d i t i o n , employs o t h e r t ypes o f models, such as d e c i s i o n mode ls . O p t i m i z a t i o n models, such as l i n e a r programming, dynamic programming, o r t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f method, a r e i m p o r t a n t t o o l s and p rocedures f o r s o l v i n g d e c i s i o n prob lems by o p t i m i z a t i o n . Other d e c i s i o n models may n o t use o p t i m i z a t i o n techn iques , such as many s i m u l a t i o n mode ls .

The d r i v i n g f o r c e i n t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n models i s t h e o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n (or f u n c t i ons i n m u l t i o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i o n ) , and any " o p t i m a l " s b l u t i o n d e r i v e d i s c l e a r l y dependent on t h e assumpt ions and c r i t e r i a and t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d uncer t a i n t i es. Some o f t h e s e u n c e r t a i n t i e s m i g h t b e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e s e l e c t i o n o f model t o p o l o g y ( s t r u c t u r e ) , pa ramete rs (coef f i c i e n t s ) , scope, o r f o c u s .

O the rs m i g h t be r e l a t e d t o da ta , t h e o p t i m i za t i on t e c h n i ques used t o s o l v e t h e ma themat i ca l models, modu lar s u b j e c t i v i t y , o r t h e i n a b i l l t y t o accoun t i n t h e model f o r many o f t h e n o n q u a n t i t a t i v e and n o n t a n g i b l e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . These f a c t o r s and o t h e r s , such as t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e models and t h e i r s t a b i l i t y , have somehow caused s k e p t i c i s m about o p t i m i z a t i o n mode ls and systems a n a l y s i s i n g e n e r a l among t h e p r a c t i t i o n e r s o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g and management.

The te rm o p t i m a ! s o l u t i o n e s s e n t i a l l y r e f e r s t o t h e b e s t s o l u t i o n o f t h e ma themat i ca l model under a l 1 assumpt i ons and

c o n s t r a i n t s , whether e x p l i c i t l y s t a t e d o r i m p l i c i t l y i n c l u d e d i n t h e f o r m u l a t i o n . C l e a r l y , then, t h e o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n i n d i c a t e d by t h e model may be f a r from, o r even have n o t h i n g t o do w i t h , t h e a c t u a l s y s t e m ' s o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n .

Recogn i z i ng a1 1 t hese d i f f i c u l t i e s , ma themat i ca l models have s i g n i f i c a n t l y expanded t h e a b i l i t y t o unders tand , p l a n , and manage our w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . Models a r e c u r r e n t l y used t o i n v e s t i g a t e v i r t u a l l y e v e r y t y p e o f wa te r r e s o u r c e prob lem, f o r s m a l l - and l a r g e - s c a l e s t u d i e s and p r o j e c t s , and a t a1 1 l e v e l s o f dec i s ion -mak ing . I n some cases, models have i n c r e a s e d t h e accuracy o f e s t i m a t e s o f f u t u r e even ts t o a 1 eve 1 f a r beyond "bes t j udgement" d e c i s i o n s . I n o t h e r cases, t hey have made p o s s i b l e ana lyses t h a t c o u l d n o t b e per fo rmed e m p i r i c a l l y or w i t h o u t computer a s s i s t a n c e . F u r t h e r , models have made i t f e a s i b l e t o q u a n t i t a t i v e l y compare t h e l i k e l y e f f e c t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e r e s o u r c e d e c i s i o n s .

Models a r e u s u a l l y v e r y u s e f u l f o r a n a l y z i n g complex wa te r r e s o u r c e p r o b 1 ems. W h i l e many o f t h e economic and s o c i a l f a c t o r s i n wa te r r e s o u r e s p l a n n i n g canno t be f u l l y enumerated, models can b e used t o i n t e g r a t e t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a and p r o v i d e e s t i m a t e s o f f u t u r e e f f e c t s and a c t i v i t i e s . Such e s t i m a t e s a r e h i g h l y u s e f u l i n e v a l u a t i n g t h e consequences o f d i f f e r e n t a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s , and u s i n g them i s o f t e n l e s s expens ive t h a n c o n d u c t i n g comprehensive surveys o r u s i n g o t h e r t r a d i t i o n a l approaches.

A p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r a systems a n a l y s i s i s t h a t a l l t h e elements o f t h e system can be modeled e i t h e r a n a l y t i c a l l y or c o n c e p t u a l l y . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o d i s t i n g u i s h between sys tem and model. A model i s t h e mathemat i c a l and/or p h y s i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e system and o f t h e r e l a t i o n s between t h e elements o f t h e system. I t i s an a b s t r a c t i o n o f t h e r e a l w o r l d , and, i n any p a r t i c u l a r a p p l i c a t i o n , t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e model and t h u s o f systems

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a n a l y s i s depends on how w e l l t h e model b u i l d e r p e r c e i v e s t h e a c t u a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s and how w e l l he i s a b l e t o d e s c r i b e t h e i r f u n c t i o n a l f orm.

S i n c e models a r e a b s t r a c t i o n s o f r e a l i t y , t hey do n o t u s u a l l y d e s c r i b e a l l f e a t u r e s t h a t a r e encompassed b y a r e a l - w o r l d s i t u a t i o n . A p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r t h e systems a n a l y s i s o f a wa te r r e s o u r c e s system i s t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e system i n terms o f component models w h i c h p e r m i t s o l u t i o n s t o b e o b t a i n e d a t reasonab le c o s t and w i t h i n a p r e s c r i b e d t i m e frame. T h e r e f o r e , t he model b u ' i l d e r s h o u l d n o t a t t e m p t t o model t h e r e a l i t y o f i n d i v i d u a l components as c l o s e l y as p o s s i b l e , b u t o n l y as c l o s e l y as i s necessary t o meet t h e o v e r a l l accuracy requ i remen ts f o r h i s sys tern . To i l l u s t r a t e : i f t h e o b j e c t i v e i s t h e d e s i g n o f a l a r g e s t o r a g e r e s e r v o i r f o r i r r i g a t i o n and water supp ly , i t i s q u i t e unnecessary t o model t h e comp le te r u n o f f p rocess . On t h e o t h e r hand, a model w e l l - s u i t e d f o r a s t o r a g e r e s e r v o i r , such as a m o n t h l y f l o w - g e n e r a t i o n model, i s e n t i r e l y unsu i t e d f o r model i ng t h e peak d i scha rges ; When, f o r example, shou ld t h e eng ineer who des igns a s a n i t a r y sewer system f o r a c i t y employ a model o f n o n s t a t i o n a r y f l o w r o u t i n g (such as t h e comple te S t . Venant e q u a t i o n s ) , and when i s i t s u f f i c i e n t t o d e s i g n f o r s t a t i o n a r y f l o w s , f o r example, by j u s t employ ing t h e concept o f normal dep th and Mann ing 's e q u a t i o n ? The d i f f e r e n c e i n computer t i m e f o r t h e two methods i s v e r y l a r g e , and t h e s t a t e d q u e s t i o n i s a v a l i d one. Hence, i t seems t h a t an i m p o r t a n t aspec t o f model b u i l d i n g i n t h e c o n t e x t o f systems a n a l y s i s i s t o f i n d t h e b e s t b u t p e r m i s s i b l e s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s . Other reasons for s e a r c h i n g f o r a s i m p l e model may b e imposed b y a l ack o r low q u a l i t y o f da ta . For example, a n o n l i n e a r u n i t hyd rog raph model i s u s u a l l y n o t u s e f u l because t h e v a r i a b i l i t y of t h e r u n o f f c o e f f i c i e n t t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e l a c k o f s u f f i c i e n t p a r a l l e l measurements o f r a i n f a l l and r u n o f f even ts make i t i m p o s s i b l e t o g e t

c a l i b r a t i o n s t h a t a r e a c c u r a t e enough t o make t h e n o n l i n e a r i t y p e r c e p t i b l e i n a s t a t i s t i c a l sense.

I n a r e c e n t s t u d y commissioned b y t h e O f f i c e o f Techno logy Assessment o f t h e Congress o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ( U . S . OTA 1982), a g roup o f l e a d i n g e x p e r t s assessed t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f s u r f a c e - w a t e r f l o w and supp ly models, s u r f a c e - w a t e r models, and groundwater models, t h e l a t t e r i n c l u d i n g b o t h q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y a s p e c t s . They were r a t e d a c c o r d i ng t o two c r i t e r i a : r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e model and c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e model r e s u l t s . Models a r e c o n s i d e r e d r e l i a b l e i f they a c c u r a t e l y d e s c r i b e t h e p h y s i c a l o r chemica l p rocess f o r wh ich they a r e des igned . C r e d i b l e r e s u l t s r e q u i r e b o t h a r e l i a b l e model and s u f i c i e n t d a t a t o run i t . T a b l e s 1 . 1 , 1.2, and 1 . 3 (wh ich a r e c o p i e s f r o m Tab les 2 , 3 , and 4 o f t h e OTA r e p o r t ) show t h e assessment f o r t h e t h r e e t y p e s o f models. The e v a l u a t i o n key i s l i s t e d a t t h e b o t t o m o f t h e t a b l e . I t i s seen f rom T a b l e 1 . 1 t h a t t h e e x p e r t s c o n s i d e r s u r f a c e - w a t e r models t o be genera 1 1 y adequate, a 1 though c o n s i d e r a b l e improvement i s p o s s i b l e t o r a i s e most o f t h e models f r o m a C r a n k i n g i n t o t h e A c l a s s . Roughly t h e same s t a t e o f a f f a i r s i s l i s t e d f o r t h e s u r f a c e - w a t e r q u a l i t y models and f o r g roundwater models, but i t must be r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e r a t i n g by c r e d i b i l i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y a lone , w i t h o u t due c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f economy and p o s i t i o n i n t h e concep tua l f rame of t h e wa te r r e s o u r c e s systems, may n o t be s u f f i c i e n t f o r a s s e s s i n g t h e mode ls ' v a l u e f o r systems a n a l y s i s .

1.3 Levels of decision-making

Many w a t e r r e s o u r c e p r o j e c t s a r e v e r y l a r g e , and l a r g e sums o f money, v e r y o f t e n p u b l i c , a r e i n v o l v e d . They a r e compe t ing w i t h o t h e r needs f o r s o c i e t y , and t h e y i n f l u e n c e many o t h e r s e c t o r s of t h e s t r u c t u r e o f s o c i e t y . T h e r e f o r e , t h e d e c i s i o n p rocess w h i c h l e a d s t o t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a wa te r resources p r o j e c t t a k e a l o n g t i m e and d e c i s i o n s a r e made on l e v e l s wh ich a r e po 1 i t i ca 1 and

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soc ioeconomic r a t h e r than t e c h n i c a l .

The b a s i s f o r a d e c i s i o n on a water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t i s a p l a n i n w h i c h t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e p r o j e c t a r e o u t l i n e d as w e l l as t h e means by w h i c h t h e y a r e t o be accompl ished, t h e i r c o s t s , and t h e consequences o f t h e p r o j e c t i n terms o f b e n e f i t s and adverse impacts . Water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g i s t h e sum o f a l l a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h l e a d t o such a p l a n . The l a r g e r t h e p r o j e c t and t h e more i n t e n s i v e t h e use o f t h e water r e s o u r c e s , t h e broader becomes t h e scope o f t h e p l a n n i n g process . There a r e few water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s w h i c h have o n l y l o c a l consequences, and most o f them have t o be seen i n t h e broader c o n t e x t o f r e g i o n a l o r even n a t i o n a l o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l development . I t i s t h e r e f o r e t e m p t i n g t o e v o l v e a h i e r a r c h y o f l e v e l s f o r w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g , w i t h t h e h i e r a r c h y b e g i n n i n g a t a l e v e l where a l 1 p o s s i b l e p r o j e c t s a r e c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a genera l economic

course , a p l a n w h i c h compr ises a l l p o l i t i c a l , econom i c , and s o c i o l o g i c a l development o b j e c t i v e s i n d e t a i l i s n e i t h e r u s e f u l no r manageable. T h e r e f o r e , a n a t i o n a l water p l a n must g e n e r a t e subp lans , w h i c h cover more d e t a i l s f o r a nar rower a rea .

I

master p l a n f o r a c o u n t r y . O f

T y p i c a l o f such a h i e r a r c h y o f p l a n n i n g i s a d i v i s i o n i n t o t h r e e l e v e l s . I n t h e U . S . , f o r example, t h e f o l l o w i n g l e v e l s a r e p romulga ted b y t h e U . S . Water Resources Counc i l (1973) *

( i ) Leve l A , a reconna issance s t u d y o r a genera l framework s t u d y . The tempora l h o r i z o n i s about 30 t o 50 yea rs . The m a j o r purpose i s t o i d e n t i f y m a j o r problems o r p r o s p e c t i v e p r o b 1 ems. The area i s g e n e r a l l y v e r y l a r g e . 1

( i i ) Leve l B i s a comprehensive p l a n n i n g e f f o r t f o r a s m a l l e r r e g i o n . T h i s l e v e l s h o u l d f o l l o w Leve l A , where problems have a l r e a d y been i d e n t i f i e d . The t i m e h o r i z o n i s about 15 y e a r s .

( i i i ) Level C i s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n p l a n n i n g , where s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t des igns a r e developed. General l y , Leve l C shou ld f o l l o w Level B, because s p e c i f i c p l a n s o r recommendations f rom the Level -B e f f o r t a r e implemented here.

Other c o u n t r i e s use d i f f e r e n t t e r m i n o l o g i e s t o d e s c r i b e t h e p l a n n i n g l e v e l s , b u t i n genera l one can i d e n t i f y t h r e e l e v e l s , and these a r e o f t e n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n t p l a n n i n g a u t h o r i t i e s . The f i r s t 1 eve 1 i nvo 1 ves i n t e r n a t i o n a l agreements of water use, f o r example, t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f water f rom a r i v e r w h i c h f l o w s th rough two o r more c o u n t r i e s . A t t h i s l e v e l , n a t i o n a l water p lans a r e a d j u s t e d t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l demands. These agreements a r e h a r d l y ever reached on t h e b a s i s o f w a t e r resources development a l o n e , b u t i n v o l v e many d i f f e r e n t n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s .

The second i s t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l . The purpose o f water reou rces p l a n n i n g on t h i s l e v e l i s t o s e t p r i o r i t i e s f o r t h e long- te rm development o f a c o u n t r y . An example i s t h e N a t i o n a l Water P l a n o f Hungary (David e t a l . 1977). I t s d e c i s i o n l e v e l i s l a r g e l y p o l i t i c a l and i n v o l v e s t e c h n i c a l i n p u t s o n l y on a l i m i t e d sca le , u s u a l l y o n l y as f i n a n c i a l d a t a o r c o n s t r a i n t s . A l though d e c i s i o n s on a n a t i o n a l o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l a r e o f g r e a t consequence s i n c e they s e t t h e s t r a t e g y f o r development, i n t h i s book t h e y a r e n o t g i v e n much room. A t t hese l e v e l s i t i s o f t e n d e c i d e d whether t o p roceed w i t h t h e p l a n n i n g f o r a p r o j e c t , and whether t o make funds ( d i r e c t f i n a n c i n g o r match ing funds) a v a i l a b l e f o r i t . The procedures f o r p l a n n i n g on t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l d i f f e r f o r d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s , and some d e t a i l s a r e g i v e n i n the i n t r o d u c t o r y s e c t i o n o f each o f t h e appended case s t u d i e s .

The t h i r d l e v e l i s r e g i o n a l , i t s r e s u l t s b e i n g i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o a r e g i o n a l water p l a n wh ich i d e n t i f i e s w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s w i t h i n the c o n t e x t o f t h e d i f f e r e n t requ i rements imposed by a l t e r n a t e

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development p l a n s o f a r e g i o n . The Maumee R i v e r s tudy i n t h e USA (Case Study 4) o r t h e M a r c h f e l d case i n A u s t r i a (Nachtnebel e t a l . 1982) a r e examples o f such b r o a d - s c a l e r e g i o n a l wa te r p l a n s . The o b j e c t i v e o f such a s tudy i s t o s e t p r i o r i t i e s and t o make recommendations f o r t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t w a t e r resources t o d i f f e r e n t water u s e r s .

1.4 Stages in water resources planning

The systems d e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n a r e a p p l i c a b l e t o d i f f e r e n t types o f p l a n n i n g processes and they a r e n o t s p e c i f i c t o w a t e r resources systems. T h i s l i e s i n t h e n a t u r e o f t h e systems approach, and i n c l a s s i f y i n g w a t e r resources systems we have t o r e c o g n i z e b o t h t h e genera l a s p e c t s o f a l l systems and the s p e c i f i c aspec ts of water resources . Most t y p i c a l o f t h e l a t t e r i s t h e use o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by purpose. The purpose of a water resources sys tem may be wa te r s u p p l y , i r r i g a t i o n , f l o o d c o n t r o l , hydropower g e n e r a t i o n , o r n a v i g a t i o n : o r some o r a l l o f t hese purposes may be combined i n m u l t i p u r p o s e p r o j e c t s . I n t h e systems framework, t h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s n o t v e r y u s e f u l because t h e systems models f o r t hese purposes a r e v e r y s i m i l a r i n t h e i r f o rma l aspec ts . The major d i f f e r e n c e s l i e i n c o n s t r a i n t s (which a r i s e f r o m r e s t r i c t i o n s on i n d i v i d u a l purposes) , i n o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s ( w i t h d i f f e r e n t s o c i e t a l and economic g o a l s t o be ach ieved f o r d i f f e r e n t pu rposes ) , and i n t h e d e s i g n aspec ts .

A second c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s by s tages o f t he t i m e sequence o f t h e p l a n n i n g process . The scope o f t h e p l a n n i n g process i n water resources can v a r y f rom t h e v e r y broad-based p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g o f a wa te r resources p r o j e c t , wh ich f o l l o w s t h e p a r t i a l i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a need f o r a c t i o n , t o t h e more d e t a i l e d e v a l u a t i o n o f a s e l e c t e d p h y s i c a l p r o j e c t (a " f e a s i b i 1 i t y " s t u d y ) . The p r o j e c t may b e f i n a n c e d o r suppor ted by p r i v a t e p a r t i e s , o r i t may be p a r t o f a l a r g e - s c a l e ,

i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y f i n a n c e d a c t i v i t y , a l t h o u g h i n t h i s book emphasis i s on p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s a t a n a t i o n a l o r r e g i o n a l s c a l e . Thus, when we s e t up a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by s tages o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s i t must be b r o a d and f l e x i b l e enough t o i n c o r p o r a t e a l l t hese p r o p e r t i e s o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s and t o permi t a n a l y s i s b y any s u i t a b l e systems

c l a s s i f i c a t i o n wh ich makes t h i s p o s s i b l e i s p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s book and i s d e p i c t e d i n F i g u r e 1 . 1 . I t i d e n t i f i e s t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a g e s o f t h e p l a n n i n g process :

a n a l y s i s techn i que. A

Stage 1 : The p r o j e c t i n i t i a t i o n s tage , wh ich b e g i n s w i t h t h e s t a t e m e n t o f needs and i nc 1 udes p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g t h a t ends w i t h t h e d e c i s i o n on how t o p roceed.

S tage 2 : The d a t a c o l l e c t i o n s tage , i n w h i c h d a t a a r e g a t h e r e d f o r system model development and dec i s ion -mak ing .

S tage 3: de te rm p r o j ec w h i c h i n v e s t number p romi s s e l e c t

The p r o c e s s o f n i n g t h e f i n a l

c o n f i g u r a t i o n , i n a l l a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e ga ted and a s m a l l o f r e p r e s e n t a t i v e and ng a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e d fo r d e t a i 1 ed

a n a l y s i s .

Stage 4: The process o f p l a n n i n g i n d e t a i l . I n t h i s s t a g e , t h e d e s i g n pa ramete rs ,

benef i t s , e t c . , o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s s e l e c t e d i n Stage 3 a r e de te rm ined , and t h e f i n a l p r o j e c t c o n f i g u r a t i o n i s s e l e c t e d . T h i s phase r e p e a t s , i n more s p a t i a l and tempora l d e t a i l , t h e p l a n n i n g o f Stages 2 and 3, and o f t e n i s pe r fo rmed b y a d i f f e r e n t team o f p l a n n e r s .

o p e r a t i o n r u l e s , c o s t ,

Stage 5: The d e s i g n s t a g e , i n w h i c h t h e f i n a l c o n f i g u r a t i o n i s t r a n s l a t e d i n t o d e s i g n documents.

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No te t h a t S tage 5 i s n o t a d i r e c t p a r t o f t h e wa te r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g p rocess , s i n c e i t m o s t l y i nvo 1 ves s t r u c t u r a l and o t h e r d e t a i l s , i f a p r o j e c t i s o f s t r u c t u r a l n a t u r e . I n many p r o j e c t s wh ich a r e n o n s t r u c t u r a l , t h i s s t a g e does n o t e x i s t , f o r example, i f t h e changes o f f u n c t i o n s for an e x i s t i n g p r o j e c t a r e ana lyzed. We t h e r e f o r e s h a l l not d i s c u s s Stage 5 i n t h i s book.

T h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i n t o f i v e s tages i s o n l y one o f many s i m i l a r c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s and i s n o t t h e o n l y one w h i c h i s i n g e n e r a l use . For example i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t i e s such as t h e ones used b y t h e Wor ld Bank o r o t h e r p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g and f i n a n c i n g agenc ies fo r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , a g r o u p i n g b y s tages i s used w h i c h e s s e n t i a l l y combines Stages 2 and 3 i n t o a p r e f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y , w h i c h f orms t h e b a s i s f o r f u n d i n g d e c i s i o n s , and w h i c h a l s o combines some a s p e c t s o f Stages 2 and 4 i n t o a f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y t h a t p r o v i d e s t h e b a s i s f o r t h e f i n a l f i n a n c i a l d e c i s i o n s t h a t a r e made b e f o r e t h e p r o j e c t i s des igned and execu ted . However, most n a t i o n a l p r o j e c t s s u b d i v i d e themselves i n t o f i v e s tages i n a n a t u r a l manner, s i n c e each s t a g e i n v o l v e s dec i s ion -makers and a n a l y s t s .

The s tages o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess encompass p l a n n i n g a t each o f t h e l e v e l s d e s c r i b e d i n s e c t i o n 1.5. B u t , whereas t h e l e v e l s r e f e r m o s t l y t o t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g agenc ies , t h e s tages a r e seen more f r o m t h e l o g i c o f systems a n a l y s i s . The re e x i s t , t h e r e f o r e , i m p o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e s . However, l e v e l s and s tages f o r m a ne twork o f t h e d e c i s i o n p rocess , and t h e y i n t e r a c t and a r e s t r o n g l y i n t e r d e p e n d e n t . T h i s r e q u i r e s a s t r u c t u r e d a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n wh ich , a t a l l l e v e l s and s tages , a u t h o r i t i e s (and r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s ) a r e ass i gned, p rocedures o f i n f o r m a t i o n exchange and of l e g a l a c t i o n s a r e e s t a b l i s h e d , and p rocedures o f i n t e r a c t i n g w i t h t h e u s e r s o f a w a t e r resources p r o j e c t a r e deve loped. D i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s have

genera ted a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p rocedures o f d i f f e r e n t k i n d s , as i s e x e m p l i f i e d i n t h e case s t u d i e s . Other examples a r e g i v e n f o r v a r i o u s c o u n t r i e s by Jamieson (19791, by W i 1 1 iams (1984) f o r t h e U n i t e d Kingdom, and b y Shamir (1983) f o r I s r a e l .

I n te rms o f w a t e r resources p l a n n i n g and o p e r a t i o n , a c o u n t r y may be c o n s i d e r e d deve ldped i f i t has an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e wh ich guarantees ' c a r e f u l o p e r a t i o n and main tenance o f comple ted systems and which has s u f f i c i e n t f l e x i b i l i t y t o a d j u s t t o chang ing needs. Indeed, a good case can be made f o r a s s i g n i n g a h i g h p r i o r i t y t o t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a w e l l - f u n c t i o n i n g wa te r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n w i t h s t r o n g powers o f r e g u l a t i o n and a w e l l - t r a i n e d maintenance s t a f f , g i v i n g i t a much h i g h e r p r i o r i t y t han t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f a l a r g e - s c a l e p r o j e c t . C o u n t r i e s t h a t have an a l ready -deve loped w a t e r resources a d m i n i s t r a t i o n t h a t c o u l d e v o l v e w i t h t h e adven t o f l a r g e - s c a l e wa te r p r o j e c t s have c e r t a i n l y been i n a more f o r t u n a t e p o s i t i o n . They have been more aware o f t h e consequences and l i m i t a t i o n s o f w a t e r resources p r o j e c t s t h a n c o u n t r i e s w i t h 1 i t t l e o r no a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e wh ich sudden ly have been c o n f r o n t e d w i t h t h e task o f a d m i n i s t e r i n g a huge wa te r p r o j e c t f ash ioned th rough t h e w i l l o f we l l -mean ing p o l i t i c i a n s , t h e f i n a n c e s o f an i n t e r n a t i o n a l f u n d i n g agency, t h e p l a n n i n g o f an i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n s u l t a n t f i r m , and t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n crews o f a m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o n t r a c t o r !

A w e l l - d e s i g n e d p l a n f o r a water resources p r o j e c t shou ld r e q u i r e t h e e x e c u t i o n o f each o f t h e s tages , a l l o w i n g enough t i m e and resources i n f u n d i n g and manpower t o p r o v i d e a s o l i d base for d e c i s i o n . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , such a c a r e f u l s t u d y o f a p r o j e c t i s u s u a l l y n o t p o s s i b l e , sometimes because o f l i m i t e d funds b u t more o f t e n due t o t i m e l i m i t a t i o n s . P a r t l y t h i s i s caused by t h e l ack o f d a t a : e.g., l o n g reco rds of r u n o f f d a t a t h a t a r e based on a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t number o f yea rs o f r u n o f f

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measurement a r e o f t e n n o t a v a i l a b l e , and measurement o f l a c k i n g d a t a can o n l y s t a r t d u r i n g o r a t b e s t s h o r t l y b e f o r e p l a n n i n g . I n e a r l i e r t imes , t h e p l a n n i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a l a r g e w a t e r p r o j e c t took decades, d u r i n g w h i c h t i m e a d d i t i o n a l d a t a c o u l d be ga the red . But t oday , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , t h e d a t a base does n o t e x i s t , and t h e t i m e h o r i z o n i s so s h o r t t h a t t h e p l a n n e r f i n i s h e s h i s j o b o n l y j u s t b e f o r e the c o n t r a c t o r takes o v e r . Even i f the p lanner can c o n t i n u e t h e d a t a - g a t h e r i n g phase d u r i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n , methods a r e so e f f i c i e n t t h a t t h e p r o j e c t i s completed i n a few years i n s t e a d o f decades. P o p u l a t i o n p r e s s u r e o r n a t i o n a l development p lans a l s o may impose t i m e c o n s t r a i n t s . The n e t r e s u l t i s t h a t Stage 2 o f t e n i s done o n l y on a l i m i t e d s c a l e , and i s done as p a r t o f Stages 3 and 4 .

Other cases e x i s t wh ich may make Stage 4 unnecessary because t h e one s o l u t i o n o f t h e water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t i s o b v i o u s o r , as i s t h e case i n many d e n s e l y p o p u l a t e d c o u n t r i e s ( f o r example, i n Western Europe) , t h e r e e x i s t many t ypes o f p r o j e c t s which a r e so n a r r o w l y c o n s t r a i n e d by d i f f e r e n t i n t e r e s t s t h a t a p a r t i c u l a r o p t i o n i s t h e o n l y f e a s i b l e one.

1.5 The planning process

The d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e f i v e s tages o f p l a n n i n g y i e l d s a conceptua l model o f the p l a n n i n g process , w h i c h i s shown i n F i g u r e 1 . 1 . Here, t h e s tages a r e shown as p a r t o f a s e q u e n t i a l d e c i s i o n process, i n wh ich the tasks t o be executed i n each s tage a r e r e p r e s e n t e d by boxes and t h e c o n n e c t i n g l i n e s d e n o t e d e c i s i o n s t o be taken , o r t h e i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w which i s passed on, f rom one s t a g e t o the n e x t . The d i r e c t i o n o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w i s i n d i c a t e d by ar rows. However, t h e c o n n e c t i n g l i n e s a r e o n l y schemat ic , and a d d i t i o n a l feedback loops may e x i s t . The o t h e r s tages , such as c o n s t r u c t i o n and o p e r a t i o n , a r e n o t p a r t o f t h e p l a n n i n g process as d e f i n e d he re . I n f a c t , i t must be

u n d e r s t o o d c l e a r l y t h a t t h e o p e r a t i o n r u l e r e s u l t i n g f rom t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s i s a f i r s t a p p r o x i m a t i o n o n l y : e x p e r i e n c e w i t h t h e a c t u a l p r o j e c t w i l l have t o be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o improved r u l e s . The p lanner must a l l o w enough f l e x i b i l i t y f o r l a t e r a d j u s t m e n t s , because most o p e r a t i o n r u l e s a r e deve loped on t h e b a s i s o f some k i n d o f a f o r e c a s t , and i t i s v e r y u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e r e a l w o r l d w i l l behave as p r e d i c t e d d u r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g .

F i g u r e 1 . 1 a p p l i e s t o a l l l e v e l s o f p l a n n i n g , perhaps w i t h some o f t h e s tages combined o r o m i t t e d . I t does n o t g i v e i n f o r m a t i o n on how t h e s tages a r e t o be executed o r what methods a r e t o be used. I n most c o u n t r i e s o r o r g a n i z a t i o n s , t h e p l ann i ng r e g u l a t i o n s o r r u l e s g i v e n t o w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p ann ing boards a r e s p e l l e d o u t i n more d e t a i l . As an example, i n he FRG t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s i s d e s c r i b e d f o r t h e n a t i o n a l and r e g i o n a l l e v e l s b y p u b l i c laws wh ich m o s t l y a r e i n t e n d e d t o s e t p rocedures f o r t h e p r o c e s s o f a p p r o v i n g p r o j e c t s , w h i l e t h e s tages o f p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g for some types o f p r o j e c t s a r e o u t l i n e d i n s t a n d a r d s ( f o r example, t h e r e s e r v o i r p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s i s s p e l l e d o u t i n s t a n d a r d Nos. D I N 19700-10, i n wh ich a p r o c e d u r e i s d e s c r i b e d w h i c h r o u g h l y c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e s tages o f our F i g u r e 1 .1 ) . These laws and r e g u l a t i o n s a r e n o t e x p r e s s i o n s o f n a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e s , b u t o t h e r c o u n t r i e s have i n c l u d e d such n a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e s . For examp 1 e, t h e P r i n c i p l e s and Standards o f t h e Water Resources Counc i l o f t h e U.S. a r e r a t h e r e x p l i c i t i n t h e p r i o r i t i e s t h a t a r e t o be used i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . The p lanner must r e a l i z e t h a t o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s may s h i f t due t o t h e s h i f t s i n v a l u e judgments o r development o b j e c t i v e s , and t h i s i s p a r t o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s ( c a l l e d t h e " s t r a t e g i c u n c e r t a i n t i e s " b y K i s i e l and D u c k s t e i n (1972) ) w h i c h he has t o a l l o w f o r .

I t w i l l be t h e purpose o f t h e f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s t o d e s c r i b e t h e

s t a g e s o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess i n more d e t a i l and t o i n t e r p r e t t h e boxes o f F i g u r e 1 . 1 . The g e n e r a l p r o c e d u r e f o r t h e p l a n n i n g o f a p r o j e c t u s u a l l y b e g i n s w i t h t h e d e s i g n i n g o f a d iag ram o f t h e p h y s i c a l system, c o n s i s t i n g o f g e o g r a p h i c a l maps showing t h e l o c a t i o n s o f demand and s u p p l y as w e l l as t h e l o c a t i o n s o f t y p i c a l s t r u c t u r e s and t h e i r c o n n e c t i o n s . Such a map (as i s appended i n more o r l e s s s i m p l i f i e d f o r m t o each o f t h e case s t u d i e s ) fo rms t h e b a s i s f o r a system d iag ram - a b l o c k d iag ram o f t h e system. T h i s b l o c k d iag ram r e p r e s e n t s t h e system i n i t s s t a t e o f o p e r a t i o n . The p r o c e s s d e s c r i b e d i n F i g u r e 1 . 1 i s t h e n t h e p r o c e s s o f m o d i f y i n g and q u a n t i f y i n g t h e i n i t i a l l y conce ived system (of S tage 1) t h r o u g h Stages 2 t o 5 t o i t s f i n a l des ign .

I t i s u s e f u l t o c o n s i d e r F i g u r e 1 . 1 as a g u i d e b y wh ich t o approach t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess . However, t h e p r o c e d u r e does not guaran tee t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e p l ann i ng; t h i s depends on t h e c o r r e c t n e s s o f t h e system e lemen ts and o f t h e d a t a d e s c r i b i n g t h e system. I t i s necessary t o o b t a i n a l l . t h e needed i n f o r m a t i o n on each o f t h e system e lements b e f o r e any sys tem a n a l y s i s i s t o be pe r fo rmed . For t h i s , c h e c k l i s t s a r e sometimes used.

However, even t h e b e s t c h e c k l i s t s and p l a n n i n g schedu les can o n l y be a gu ide , and t h e y must b e used w i t h c a r e and d i s c r i m i n a t i o n . They can supp lement , b u t n o t r e p l a c e , t h e s k i 1 1 and i n t u i t i o n o f t h e e x p e r i e n c e d and c r e a t i v e p l a n n e r . He m u s t d e c i d e on t h e v a r i a b l e s and t h e v a l u e s o f c o n s t a n t s and pa ramete rs , he i d e n t i f i e s and d e c i d e s on t h e impor tance o f c o n s t r a i n t s , he d e t e r m i n e s t h e most a p p r o p r i a t e s t a t e t r a n s i t i o n f u n c t i o n o f l o g i c a l o r s t r u c t u r a l e 1 emen t s . And, f i n a l 1 y , no h a r d - a n d - f a s t r u l e s e x i s t on what p l a n n i n g p rocedures a r e t o be used: t h e f i n d i n g o f t h e b e s t approach for a d d r e s s i n g t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess i s a d i f f i c u l t p rob lem i n i t s e l f .

1.6 Advantages and (current) disadvantages of the systems approach to water resources

A n a l y s i s o f w a t e r resources systems and wa te r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g f o r such a n a l y s i s a r e v e r y o l d a c t i v i t i e s - i n f a c t , t h e v a s t i r r i g a t i o n p r o j e c t s o f Mesopotamia o r Egypt o r China, b u i l t w e l l b e f o r e t h e b e g i n n i n g o f ou r t imes , were c e r t a i n l y done w i t h c a r e f u l p l a n n i n g , based on l o n g o b s e r v a t i o n s and exper ience . Such systems were s u b j e c t t o improvement ove r c e n t u r i e s b y t r i a l and e r r o r , l i n k i n g t h e s o c i e t y o f t h e c o u n t r y and i t s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s t o t h e management o f w a t e r and t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e w a t e r resources . And thus i t has been t h r o u g h t h e ages. But, i n s p i t e o f t h e i m p o r t a n t r o l e wh ich w a t e r resources deve 1 opment p 1 ayed i n t h e development o f some c o u n t r i e s , i t has o n l y been th rough t h e e f f o r t s i n o t h e r a reas o f p l a n n i n g t h a t t h e a n a l y t i c a l background f o r modern systems a n a l y s i s has been c r e a t e d (Rogers 1 9 8 0 ) . T h e r e f o r e , modern systems a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s have e n t e r e d t h e p l a n n i n g o f wa te r resources systems d u r i n g t h e s i x t i e s (Maass e t a l . 1962; H a l l and Dracup 1969; Buras 1972) .

Systems a n a l y s i s p roponents have e s t a b l i s h e d t h e s c i e n c e o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s systems a n a l y s i s w i t h an en thus iasm wh ich i s unsurpassed b y any o t h e r a reas o f wa te r research , so t h a t today a v a s t e x p e r t i s e e x i s t s t o o p t i m i z e r e a l (and imagi ned) w a t e r resources systems. The reason f o r t h i s en thus iasm i s e a s i l y unders tood, because systems a n a l y s i s techn iques opened u p t h e murky f i e l d o f dec i s ion -mak ing i n w a t e r resources eng i neer i ng, hand 1 ed u p t o then on 1 y by i n t u i t i o n and e x p e r i e n c e (so i t seemed), t o the c l a r i t y t h a t mathematics g i v e s t o a n a l y s i s p rocesses , and so t o t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f o b j e c t i v i t y i n t o what seemed t o be s u b j e c t i v e and i n some cases a r b i t r a r y d e c i s i o n processes . A b r e a k t h r o u g h was made p o s s i b l e by t h e computer and i t s c a p a b i l i t y t o work w i t h l a r g e

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amounts o f da ta and t o s o l v e complex m a t h e m a t i c a l p rob lems. Wi th t h i s c a p a b i l i t y , the systems f o r m u l a t i o n was q u a n t i f i a b l e , and the advantages o f systems a n a l y s i s c o u l d be r e a l i z e d t o t h e f u l l e x t e n t . As t i m e passes, t h e systems approach w i l l a s s e r t i t s e l f . New g e n e r a t i o n s o f computers, i nc 1 ud i ng m i n i c o m p u t e r s , become a v a i l a b l e t o t h e e n g i n e e r t o i nc rease h i s p l a n n i n g c a p a b i l i t y on h i s desk, and t o i n c r e a s e t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f o p e r a t i o n th rough a d a p t i v e c o n t r o l s , f o r e c a s t i n g techn iques , and a d a p t i v e account i ng f o r a l 1 f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the system o p e r a t i o n .

The systems approach becomes a necessary p 1 ann i ng i ns t rumen t because i t seems t o be t h e o n l y way t o i n t e g r a t e t h e many issues w h i c h t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p lanner must cons ide r i n h i s p l a n . Env i ronmenta l p r o t e c t i o n , the i ssues o f w a t e r q u a l i t y f o r human w e l l - b e i n g , r e q u i r e m e n t s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l use, t h e i s s u e s o f c o n f l i c t i n g demands on scarce w a t e r resources - f o r a l l o f these prob lem areas , s o l u t i o n s have t o be f o u n d which must be a b l e t o w i t h s t a n d t h e s c r u t i n y o f p r o f e s s i o n a l e x p e r t s and o f an i n c r e a s i n g l y w e l l - i n f o r m e d and c r i t i c a l p u b l i c . Many o f t hese peop le have seen t h e f a i l u r e s of c o n v e n t i o n a l l y p lanned p r o j e c t s i n which a s i n g l e purpose was f o l l o w e d w i t h o u t r e g a r d t o impacts on o t h e r a reas , Examples o f d e t r i m e n t a l impacts a r e r e s e r v o i r and r i v e r - b e d s e d i m e n t a t i o n , abuse o f water i n i r r i g a t e d areas genera ted by t h e a p p a r e n t l y abundant supp ly o f w a t e r f rom i r r i g a t i o n works, and w a t e r p o l l u t i o n by i n d u s t r y and c i t i e s . These a r e o n l y a few examples o f t h e n e g a t i v e consequences o f a s e c t o r i a l l y o r i ented and noncomprehensive approach t o w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g . On t e c h n i c a l grounds, t h e main advantages o f t h e systems approach i n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g a r e :

1 . O b j e c t i v e s can b e s t a t e d q u a n t i t a t i v e l y , o f t e n i n a n a l y t i c a l terms, and o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s and c o n s t r a i n t s can be f o r m u l a t e d , p e r m i t t i n g g e n e r a t i o n of a p l a n t h a t

accounts f o r a l l t h e s e c t o r s w h i c h i n f l u e n c e o r a r e i n f l u e n c e d by a water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t .

2 . The l e v e l o f per fo rmance o f a system, as measured a g a i n s t c e r t a i n per fo rmance s tandards , can be q u a n t i f i e d , a1 l o w i n g t h e i n c o r p o r a t i o n o f r i s k and uncer t a i n t y i n t o t h e dec i s i o n p rocess .

3. I t becomes f e a s i b l e t o make complex models o f r e a l - w o r l d w a t e r r e s o u r c e s systems so t h a t a much lower degree o f a b s t r a c t i o n and s i m p l i f i c a t i o n i s necessary t h a n i n c o n v e n t i o n a l approaches. T h i s i s an advantage w h i c h i s a necessary p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r a d d r e s s i n g i ssues , i n p a r t i c u l a r t h o s e o f a mu 1 t i o b j e c t i v e and mu 1 t i purpose n a t u r e .

The v e r y advantage o f b e i n g a b l e t o h a n d l e l a r g e and c o m p l i c a t e d p l a n n i n g p r o j e c t s i s a l s o t h e main d i sadvantage o f t h e systems approach. F i r s t o f a l l , t h e r e i s t h e prob lem o f t h e q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y o f d a t a w h i c h may be r e q u i r e d , w i t h a l l t h e l i m i t a t i o n s s e t by f u n d i n g and t i m e f o r d a t a acqu i s i t i o n . T h i s problem ' i s d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 3. Then t h e r e i s t h e prob lem t h a t t h e dec is ion-maker may f i n d h i m s e l f c o n f r o n t e d w i t h a s e l e c t i o n o f d e c i s i o n s t h a t a r e n o t o b v i o u s t o h im and w h i c h have been o b t a i n e d by a n a l y t i c a l p r o c e d u r e s t h a t he c a n n o t u n d e r s t a n d w i t h o u t i n v e s t i ng s u b s t a n t i a l e f f o r t , f o r w h i c h he u s u a l l y has no t ime . And systems a n a l y s t s , many o f by t h e i r computers, communicat ion i n p i n t h e language o f seems t o be more s o l v i n g comp 1 ex p rob lems. The dec t h e r e s u l t s w i t h

hem i n t o x i c a t e d a r e n o t h e l p f u l ; a i n language, o r

t h e e n g i n e e r s , d i f f i c u l t t h a n

m a t h e m a t i c a l s ion-maker v i e w s

s u s p i c i o n , or worse, w i t h a f a l s e c o n f i d e n c e t h a t may n o t be j u s t i f i e d because o f p l a n n i n g e r r o r s (which happens!) o r t h e use o f models w h i c h have n o t been d e v e l o p e d f a r enough t o p e r m i t t h e c o n c l u s i o n s f o r w h i c h t h e y a r e used.

A t t h i s s t a g e i t seems w o r t h w h i l e t o l i s t some o f t h e more commonly p e r c e i v e d shor tcomings o f systems a n a l y s i s as a p p l i e d t o water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g ; we can then a n a l y z e t r e n d s i n t h e development o f systems a n a l y s i s aimed a t overcoming these d i f f i c u l t i e s . F o l l o w i n g a r e t h e m a j o r sources o f t h e s k e p t i c i s m t h a t many agenc ies have about t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a c t u a l l y imp lement ing systems m e t h o d o l o g i e s i n water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g and management:

( i ) S i n g l e-vs. mu 1 t i p l e - o b j e c t i v e mode 1 s . S i n g l e - o b j e c t i v e - f u n c t i o n mod- e 1 s have dominated most p a s t s t u d i es i n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g . Y e t t h e many compet ing and o f t e n c o n f 1 i c t i n g goa 1 s and o b j e c t i v e s o f a lmost eve ry w a t e r r e s o u r c e s system make such models i n c o m p a t i b l e w i t h r e a l i t y and t h e r e f o r e u n a c c e p t a b l e . A w a t e r r e s o u r c e s agency may n o t f i n d models w i t h a s i n g l e - o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n t o be a c c e p t a b l e as a d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g t o o l i f , f o r examp 1 e, t h e p rob 1 em i t a t tempts t o model i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by m u l t i p l e noncommensurable o b j e c t i v e s and g o a l s . F u t u r e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g models a r e 1 i k e l y t o encompass m u l t i p l e - o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s i n t h e i r noncommensurable u n i t s .

( i i ) " S o f t " vs . "hard" e lements i n m o d e l i n g . There i s a g r o w i n g need t o i n c l u d e i n t h e m o d e l i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t h e so-ca 1 1 ed " s o f t " e 1 ements - such as s o c i e t y , p o l i t i c s , l e g a l a s p e c t s , and t h e e n v i r o n m e n t - a l o n g w i t h t h e "hard" e lements such as econom i cs and t h e p h y s i c a l - t e c h n o l o g i c a l system. Consequent ly , new approaches and m e t h o d o l o g i e s c a p a b l e o f c o p i n g w i t h these complex " h a r d " and " s o f t " e lements and b r i d g i n g t h e gap between them a r e b e i n g deve loped. These new approaches a r e based on

v a r i o u s t h e o r i e s and concepts , such as d e c i s i o n t h e o r y , game t h e o r y , u t i l i t y t h e o r y , f u z z y s e t t h e o r y , v e c t o r o p t i m i z a t i o n , and s i m u l a t i o n w i t h i n t e r a c t i v e modes.

( i i i ) "Narrow" vs . " t o t a l " models . A b a s i c concept b e i n g preached t o s tuden t s o f systems a n a l y s i s i s t h a t , f o r t h e a n a l y s i s o f a system t o be m e a n i n g f u l , t h e who le system shou ld be c o n s i d e r e d . Yet , most wel l -documented s i m u l a t i o n and mathemat ica l models o f water systems a r e aimed a t i n v e s t i g a t i n g narrow, s p e c i f i c , and s e l e c t e d aspec ts o f a r e g i o n a l w a t e r resources system. By v i r t u e o f t a c k l i n g one p a r t o f t h e prob lem w h i l e assuming knowledge o f o t h e r p a r t s , these models a r e o f t e n one-s ided and u s u a l l y do n o t r e p r e s e n t t h e o v e r a l l system b e h a v i o r . The reason they a r e o v e r s i m p l i f i e d can be e x p l a i n e d by t h e d i f f i c u l t y o f s o l v i n g the prob lem o f u s i n g c o n v e n t i o n a l systems a n a l y s i s t o o l s t o model a l a r g e - s c a l e , complex system. The f u t u r e t r e n d i s toward modi f y i ng e x i s t i n g models t o i n c o r p o r a t e them i n t o t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e t o t a l system. T h i s can be done by us i ng h i e r a r c h i c a l - m u l t i l e v e l s t r u c t u r e s t h a t r e l a t e and coord i n a t e t h e v a r i ous submode 1 s and o b j e c t i ves o f t h e t o t a l system.

( i v ) Lack o f da ta p l a n n i n g . I n many c o u n t r i e s t h e r e has been a l a c k o f i n t e r a c t i o n between d a t a - c o l l e c t i o n agencies and those i n c h a r g e o f water resources p l ann i ng and management. There i s an a c u t e need f o r a n a l y t i c a l f rameworks capab le o f e v a l u a t i n g t h e wor th o f d a t a f o r an o p t i m a l d a t a - c o l l e c t i o n system ( w i t h r e s p e c t t o c o l l e c t i n g , p rocess ing , d i s s e m i n a t i n g , and p r o j e c t i n g f u t u r e d a t a demands). I n a d d i t i o n , these o p e r a t i o n a l f rameworks ought

t o be r e s p o n s i v e t o t h e needs o f p l a n n e r s fo r management of wa te r and r e l a t e d l a n d systems.

(VI Lack o f i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h t h e dec i s ion -makers . Water r e s o u r c e systems ana lyses have o f t e n been done i n i s o l a t i o n f r o m t h e dec i s ion -makers and commissioned agenc ies r e s p o n s i b l e f o r , and i n cha rge o f , imp lement ing t h e r e s u l t s o f these ana lyses . Trends i n d i c a t e t h a t more emphasis i s b e i n g p l a c e d on c o n s t r u c t i n g m o r e - r e a l i s t i c models t h a t a r e a c c e p t a b l e t o t h e s e dec i s ion -makers and agenc ies . C 1 ose r communicat ion and c o o p e r a t i o n between systems a n a l y s t s and n a t i o n a l and l o c a l agenc ies s h o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d .

( v i ) Lack o f f o l l o w - u p i n imp lemen ta t i on . The m a j o r i t y o f s t u d i e s o f water r e s o u r c e s systems a r e conducted b y one g r o u p o r agency and implemented, i f a t a l l , by a n o t h e r . T h i s 1 ack o f c o n t i n u i t y and f o l l o w - u p o f t h e s tudy b y t h e mode lers and systems a n a l y s t s o f t e n r e s u l t s i n m isunders tand ings o f t h e models by t h e imp lemen t ing agenc ies . Most i m p o r t a n t l y , t h e exper ience and know-how g a i n e d by mode lers and systems a n a l y s t s a r e n o t u t i l i z e d where they a r e b a d l y needed. Aga in , t h e t r e n d i s i n t h e d i r e c t i on o f more communicat ion between t h e two groups so t h a t a c l o s e d - l o o p o p e r a t i o n r e p l a c e s t h e p r e s e n t open- loop one.

I n systems a n a l y s i s , i t i s n o t t h e model i n i t s e l f t h a t coun ts , b u t i t s per fo rmance. As was p o i n t e d o u t above, t o c a s t a r e a l - w o r l d p rob lem i n t o t h e framework most s u i t e d f o r a c e r t a i n t y p e o f a n a l y s i s v e r y o f t e n i n v o l v e s t h e s i m p l i f i c a t i o n o f t h e prob lem i n c e r t a i n a reas . Are t h e s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s p e r m i s s i b l e ? T h i s i s an i m p o r t a n t q u e s t i o n , b u t n o t n e a r l y as i m p o r t a n t as t h e q u e s t i o n

o f whether a l l s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s a r e accoun ted f o r , and whether t h e n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s o f t h e pa ramete rs and c o e f f i c i e n t s wh ich a r e used a r e o f t h e r i g h t magn i tude. S ince t h e systems a n a l y s t u s u a l l y does n o t have t h e b r o a d e x p e r i e n c e r e q u i r e d f o r such i n s i g h t s and t h e exper i enced eng i neer ( p l anner) does n o t know enough a b o u t p l a n n i n g techn iques , i t i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r a s u c c e s s f u l p l a n n i n g e f f o r t t h a t dec i s ion -makers , systems a n a l y s t s , and e n g i n e e r s ( p l a n n e r s ) work t o g e t h e r i n an atmosphere o f m u t u a l t r u s t and w i l l i n g n e s s t o l e a r n .

I n such an atmosphere, t h e advantages o f systems a n a l y s i s g r e a t l y o u t w e i g h i t s d i sadvan tages , and by l e a v i n g t h e prob lems w h i c h canno t be r e s o l v e d b y p r e s e n t l y a v a i l a b l e t e c h n i q u e s o u t s i d e o f t h e system model and e v a l u a t i n g i t s a s p e c t s s e p a r a t e l y b y c o n v e n t i o n a l methods, t h e systems a n a l y s t can s u b s t a n t i a l l y improve t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess w i t h o u t i n s p i r i ng a c o n f i d e n c e t h a t i s n o t j u s t i f i e d .

I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o s p e c u l a t e how systems a n a l y s i s i n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s w i l l d e v e l o p i n t h e f u t u r e . The systems approach i s used t o s o l v e t h e o l d problems o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s , b u t on a h i g h e r l e v e l t h a n t h e " o l d " t echn iques . We must assume t h a t t h e r e a r e h i g h e r l e v e l s s t i l l t o be found - b u t we do n o t know o f them, j u s t as t h e p l a n n e r s o f y e s t e r d a y d i d n o t know: But we v e n t u r e t o p r e d i c t t h a t t h e f o r e s e e a b l e development w i l l be i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f c l o s i n g t h e communica t ions gap and making t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess more t r a n s p a r e n t . Ma themat i ca l system models w i l l e v o l v e i n t o a s u p p o r t framework f o r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g t h a t i nc 1 udes numerous s m a l l e r models t h a t a r e s e l f - c o n t a i n e d and des igned t o b e used i n t e r a c t i v e l y by a n a l y s t s and p o l i c y - m a k e r s a t d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s . B e t t e r p h y s i c a l models, b e t t e r economic models w i l l b e deve loped. M i n i c o m p u t e r s and i n t e r a c t i v e s o f t w a r e w i l l be used t o make d e c i s i o n s more t r a n s p a r e n t and h e l p d e c i s i o n s t o be accompl ished i n sess i ons o f e x p e r t s who a r e

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t h e common language r e q u i r e d b y systems a n a l y s i s .

There w i l l a l s o be developments a t t h e h i g h e r l e v e l s o f p l a n n i n g , d i c t a t e d by needs o f e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g c o m p l e x i t i e s o f economic and s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s f o r w h i c h water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s p r o v i d e p a r t o f t h e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e . For example: a t t h e r e g i o n a l l e v e l , a hydropower p r o j e c t i s a p a r t o f t h e l o c a l e l e c t r i c power s u p p l y system: a t t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l , i t becomes p a r t o f t h e energy supp ly system o f a c o u n t r y : and a t t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l , i t i s p a r t o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l compound energy g r i d systems. Such l a r g e - s c a l e systems may r e q u i r e l a r g e e f f o r t s i n c o l l e c t i n g and s t o r i n g d a t a , wh ich w i l l l e a d t o t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f v a s t d a t a banks a t a l l p l a n n i n g l e v e l s .

And a t a l l l e v e l s t h e r e w i l l be a c o n t i n u i n g need t o r e v i e w t h e p l a n n i n g d e c i s i o n s o f . y e s t e r d a y i n t h e l i g h t o f developments and e v o l u t i o n s o f t h e s o c i a l and economic f a b r i c o f t h e c o u n t r y , and o f t h e needs and demands wh ich a r e p laced on t h e water r e s o u r c e s o f t h e r e g i o n .

1.7 References

Buras, N. 1972. The S c i e n t i f i c A l l o c a t i o n o f Water Resources. E l s e v i e r , New York/Amsterdam.

David, L . , L . Ducks te in , and R.

M u l t i o b j e c t i v e p l a n n i n g o f r u n o f f r e g u l a t i o n under u n c e r t a i n water demands. I n Proc . o f t h e 1 s t I n ' l Conf. on A p p l i e d Numer ica l M o d e l l i n g , Un iv . o f Southampton, J u l y

K r y s z t o f o w i c t . 1977 *

1977, PP* 13-22.

H a l l , W. A. , and J . Dracup. 1969. Water Resources Systems E n g i n e e r i n g . McGraw-Hi l l , New York, NY.

Jamieson, D . G . 1979. P l a n n i n g , d e s i g n and o p e r a t i o n o f water r e s o u r c e s sys terns. I n t . Conference on O p e r a t i o n s Research i n Agr i c u l t u r e and

Water Resources, Jerusalem.

K i s i e l , C . , and L . Ducks te in , eds. 1972. Proceed i ngs, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Symposium on U n c e r t a i n t i e s i n Hydro logy and Water Resources, Tucson, A r i z .

Maass, A . , e t a l . 1962. Design o f Water Resources Systems. Harvard U n i v e r s i t y Press , Cambridge, Mass.

Nachtnebel , H., I . B o g a r d i , and L.

Mu1 t i c r i t e r i o n ana l ys i s f o r r e g i o n a l water r e s o u r c e s development. I n Proceed ings , I F l P WG 7 . 1 Work ing Conference, Env i ronmenta l Systems A n a l y s i s and Management (Rome, I t a l y ,

N o r t h - H o l l a n d , New York.

Ducks te in . 1982.

28-30 September, 1981).

Rogers, P. 1980. R o l e o f systems a n a l y s i s as a t o o l i n water p o l i c y , p l a n n i n g and management. I n U n i t e d N a t i o n s , Repor t o f UF; Workshop, Water Resources P 1 ann i ng: E x p e r i e n c e s i n a N a t i o n a l and Reg iona l Contex t . C a s t e l g a n d o l f o and S t resa , I t a l y .

Shamir, U. 1983. Exper iences i n m u l t i o b j e c t i v e p l a n n i n g and management o f w a t e r resources systems. H y d r o l o g i c a l Sc iences Journa 1 , 28 : 77-92.

U . S . OTA-U.S. Congress, O f f i c e o f Technology Assessment. 1982. Use o f Models f o r Water Resources Management, P lann ing , and Pol i c y . U . S . Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , Washington, D . C .

U . S . Water Resources Counci 1 . 1973. Water and R e l a t e d Land Resources, E s t a b l i s h m e n t o f P r i n c i p l e s and Standards f o r P lann ing , Washington, D . C .

W i l l i a m s , C . 1984. H y d r o l o g i c a l aspec ts i n i n t e g r a t e d r i v e r

General Assembly o f t h e IUGG, 1 5 - 2 7 August 1983, Hamburg, F R G .

bas i n development. xvi i I

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S/o,qe I Plan iniliation arid preliniinary planning (Chapter 2)

Sto,qe 2 Data collection and processing (Chapter 3)

Slage 3 Formulation and screening o f project alternatives

End o f prcfeasibility study

Slage 4 Development o f linal study results

End of feasibility study

Stage 5 Design

Construction

Operation

I t

o f alternatives I

? Generation 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I Interaction with:

gineers, hydrologists, elc.

Pirhlic O /her unencies

Methods: I Oprirn izatior Multiobjec/ive anulysis Hierurchical unolysis elc.

c Negotiations

resolution

-I+

I I I I I

I I

I

I I I 0 I I I

I I

I I

Selected project alternatives

Abort 1

I Political process 1 t

Detailed formulation o f projects

1 Model building

and model analysis

Design parameters Operation rules, for structures operation niodels

Fig. 1.1 Stages in the water resources planning process

Table 1.1 Surface water flow and supply model evaluation

~ .. ~ .~ -~

Information required for applications

a. Flood peaks for channel and bridge ,jesign b. Flood hydrographs for reserdoir design and operation c. Simultaneous flood hydrograchs for floor: contrcl system 'jesi;n and 3perat i in d. Flood depth mapping for f lood plain land-use planr.ing e. Effects of land use on dowqstream flcws for ups:ream land-(;se pianning 1. Flood peaks after dam failures for emergency preparedness planning 0. Soil moisture conditions for land drainage design

~. . . . . . _ ~ _ _ ~ _ _ _ _ _ _ -~ . Issue

Water avallsbillty: ~ .~ ~

1. Flood forecasting and control

2. Drolight and low.flGw river a. Low river f lows for offstream uses b. Timing of drought sequences for estimating cumulative xo f iomic i r rpact c. Soil moisture conditions for precipitation-supplied uses

forecasting

3. Streamf!ow regula!ion (incl cdi ng r e s e r a rs)

4. lnstream flow needs Fish and Wiid!ife

Rec:ea:ion

Nav!pation

Hydrodlectricity

Water use: 5. 0 o n e i : i c watEr supply

6 Irrigated asricuiture

a. Runoff #olurne for maximum obtainable yield b. Rurlcff time patterns (within ane a r s n p years) :or reserfoir siz!ng c. Simultaneous runoff volumes in regional streams !or regional

water supply planning

a. Low river f lows for estimating fish supprrrl potential b. W;thin.yea: t iming of low f lows for f ish iifecycle ma!chinp c . Timing of drought sequences for es:imating minimum reservoir or lake ievels d. Flow .velocities within streams !or estimating ef:ects on fish specres a. LDW river f lcws for sus!a!cing rec:ea!icn capacily and es:he!ic appeal b. Timing of flow sequences 'or matching with recrea!icn periods c. Runoff time patterns (w!thm and among years) for es!irr,ar:ng the impact of

a. Low river flows for determining wa!e?kay capacity b. High river flows for deter-icing navigalion ;nterfe:ence c. Formatior, of sueace ice for determining navigation inter 'erexe a. Timing of f low sequences for es?ima!ing run.of-the-rive:

b. Runoff time patterns (within and among years) for des,gnii:g

c. Simultanecus rlrnoff volumes i n rei;ional streams for CeGional Seie'ating

fluclua!icns in lake !evels

generating capacity

streamf!ow regu!a!cons

sys:en planning

a. Timing of .#ater use for deiivery sys!en design b. Wa!er presEues thioughout delivery system for deiiverf sys!em design c. Volune o f use for sizing supply 'aciiities d. Re!url flow ,vo:umes fcr .?esign:ng ,waste'&a!er zoiier!;6n 5ysre.r.s

a. TirC.ins cf ,va!er use ' o r de!iverf sys:en design b. Voiume of use for sizing suppiy facil i t ies c. Re:urn flow tolirmes ' o r drainage i y s : e T 6esign

7. Orher offs!ream uses a. Volume of 1ndus:r:aI use for su ing supply facilities

.-

Source: U . S . O f f i c e o f Technology Assessment , 1982

Overall rating

B C C C C D C

C B C A B

C

C 8 B C C 0

B C C 0

B

B

C

D C B C

C B B

B

C -.

-21-

Table 1.2 Surface water quality model evaluation

I No computer, not cornzdex

C - - C E

A C E B A

A A A E A

C - - C E

A A C C A

A A A C E

A A E C A

C -

C C

A A C

II Com puler,

not complex ~

_- - Generic type .. -_-___

IV 111 Computer, Overall level

Computer, complex, of modeling complex operational sophistication

-..__-___ Issue Nonpoint source pollullon and land use __ ____ ~ _ _ _ ~ _ _ - -

Urban %Ooff: Source~'~e.?e:s:ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport to receiving water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport in receiving water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Impacts on beneficial u s e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Control optionsicosts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Source:geieration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transpor; to receiving wa te r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport in receiving water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Impacts on beneficial u s e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Control options'costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Erosion and sedirneatation:

Sal in i :y : Source:genera!ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport t o receiving wa te r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport in receiving wa te r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Impacts o n kne f i c ia i u s e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Control optionsicosts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sourceige2eration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Transport in receiving wa te r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Impacts on bene!icial u s e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Control options,costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Other agricultural runoff:

Transport to receiving ,water.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Airborne pcllutants: Sourceigeneration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport !o receiving ,water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport in receiving water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Impacts on beneficial u s e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Control optionsicosts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Water quallly (other than nonpoint sources and land usr j

Sou:ceiEenera:ion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport !o recewing water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport in receiving water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Impac!s an bene!i;ial u s e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Controi optionsicos!s, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Source!genera:icn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport to receiving water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transpofl in receiving water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . lrnpacls on beneficla! use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Controi opticn3:ccsts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

S0urce'geie;a:ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport !o recexing wa!er . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport ~n :ece:vir; wa:er . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . lrnfiacts on berie!:ctal use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Contrci op!ions,cos:s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Source . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trea:menr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Impac!s on bene!iciai u s e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Was:e!cad allocation:

Thermai pollution.

Toxic materials-

Drlnkirg Ika i i ty -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 E 3 Water quaiity impac!s on aqlJa!ic i i fe B - .. ~ ~ ~.~ ~ ~

Key' A Reliabie, credit'e .Tods!ing may ?a 'cadily G;leC for most problems 0 1 : h ~ r 3~btast;e Sorrz modeis ma, Se sdl!ab;e !or :eGula!ioo an.? d e i i ~ n . 0 S a m 8s C, bu! sorne models may be ~ s s ' i r l for o l a n i i i g am5 ,eia!ed 3?- r ,x3+3 and suitabis 'or je :e 'mlr lng .e!a:;ve ef lscfr . c Modeling is w%ble Credibility ard 'eliab!lily of W ~ ~ I ! S :I iow due Is weak:es3~3 .n !h4 ja!a : d ~ e - Mcdeiing 0 1 !*lis :ype . s no! usdally pe+rmeC.

OWraI ! :m9! sf mo.jeii?s mphi)!iia:!on. 0 No modei3 wal'anie

10 Rou!ins >se ~f models 31 ai! !,wd

C A C C E

A A A C - C 0 C C E

A A C C A

A A A C E

A A A C A

C C

A A A C -

C A

A A A C E

A A A C A

C C C C C

4

4

9

3

6

- A

?

A A A C - A A A C A

C C C - -

9

1

2

Source: U . S . O f f i c e o f Technology Assessment, 1982

-22-

Table 1.3 Ground-water model evaluation

Mode' !ypes Sja ! ia ! c x s l d e r a ! i o n s

Poll t i :ai ; movement . I! any ~~~~

F:o* cond i t ions

Issues Ouant i !y--ava!:ablr su2plies. . , .

OLant i !y -cmju7c: ive use . . . . C)uali!y--scccen!a' se!'oieurrs

prGduC!s , . . . . , . . . . . , .

Ouali !y-accden!a; road salt . .

Oualify -acc identa l industrual

__ ~-

- - _ _ ~ _ _ _ ~ .

Ouality--&gricu!tt i:e sal! 5

Oual i ry-waste d:sDgsal land!ill

OLiali!y - seawa

Key

- -_

e 5 !ne s:x:* :slum' apII!eS t c a s ' ! e - ~ r a l t PELIET ir, u r m L Doliu:a?! movernerl i s des;rltrec b* 2 :-a'sporl ji. s a ' - . a : e z '#:A ~ 2 7 3 1 : z* I - ''a::--e' n p 4 . a

AppI8ca:ior scale S l l e - - m M ~ i s 6Plalng wilh areas less Ihar. a f e u square miles Locat-mod4s dealxnc wltb areas greater than a few square miles bu: less ihar. a few thousanc S ~ U W E m1ies Repionat-modeis deallnp with areas prearer than a !ew th3usand sgbare miles

Abb-eviations. W-wiln wlt-without ~a!-sa!u~al(td prouid *aterflow Londlllons unsal-ursaturalea flow conditions. P-Pomur media F-fractured 01 solution cavity media

Entries: a usabie p:edtcl're :mi :avinC a h ~ ~ h .Jep:ee of rellabilily and credlbsliij Gwen sulficle?l dala

a s e t u : CC.' .eDlr;al ImI for hslplnp the hydrolop~sl synthesize compiicalad hydrologic and gunlily dala E a reliable rs?~:eytual 1001 capabis d 5horl.Ierm ( a l e * )'Ears! pwdlc!lon with a moderale level of c-edibiii:j Giver. su!!vcen! dats

U a :wdeI !ha? is still on Ihe researCV slape - nc rrmdei ex,s1s. Blank-model type not applicable IO i s u e area.

Source: U.S. O f f i c e o f Techno logy Assessment, 1982

2. Plan initiation and preliminary planning

T h i s chap te r i s concerned w i t h p l a n i n i t i a t i o n and p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g . These c o n s t i t u t e t h e f i r s t s t a g e o f t h e water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g p rocess . Dur ing t h i s s t a g e t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f p r o j e c t needs i s f o l l o w e d by p l a n f o r m u l a t i o n , wh ich s h o u l d t a k e i n t o accoun t t h e dependency o f t h e p r o j e c t on t h e "non-water" s e c t o r s o f t h e economy. I n t h e c o u r s e o f t h e c h a p t e r , some problems r e l a t e d t o t h e s ta temen t of p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s and c o n s t r a i n t s w i l l b e rev iewed, a long w i t h t h e c h a l l e n g e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c h o o s i n g a p p r o p r i a t e pe rsonne l t h a t w i l l i n c l u d e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f t h e v a r i o u s agenc ies p l u s a v a r i e t y o f e x p e r t s from many d i s c i p l i n e s . The impor tance o f i nc 1 ud i ng some mechanisms f o r p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n w i l l b e d i scussed , a f t e r wh ich t h e c h a p t e r w i l l conc lude w i t h some comments c o n c e r n i n g p r e l i m i n a r y s e l e c t i o n o f system a n a l y s i s t o o l s t o be used i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s .

2.1 Problem formulation

P l a n n i n g fo r water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s i s i n i t i a t e d i n response t o needs t h a t a l r e a d y e x i s t or a r e a n t i c i p a t e d i n t h e more o r l e s s d i s t a n t f u t u r e . The n a t u r e o f t h e s e needs may be v e r y d i f f e r e n t . Sometimes one can i d e n t i f y t h e key needs, fo r example, p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t f l o o d s o r s u p p l y i n g i r r i g a t i o n wa te r t o s u s t a i n a g r i c u l t u r a l development. However, i n most cases t h e r e i s a s e t o f mutua l l y depend en t and i n t e r c o n n e c t e d needs; and t h e i r u n d e r s t a n d i n g and c l e a r a r t i c u l a t i o n a r e d i f f i c u l t . No e f f o r t s h o u l d be spared t o a n a l y z e i n t h e b r o a d e s t p o s s i b l e terms what i s t h e i r r e a l n a t u r e . Hence, i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of needs i s a v e r y d i f f i c u l t b u t a t t h e same t i m e v e r y i m p o r t a n t phase o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess d i scussed i n

t h i s book. There a r e no g o l d e n r u l e s l e a d i n g t o t h e s u c c e s s f u l i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f needs. The p l a n n i n g team shou ld t h i n k ha rd , u s e a1 1 i n f o r m a t i o n and e v i d e n c e a v a i l a b l e , and remember above a l l t h a t g e t t i n g deeper i n t o t h e i s s u e s under deba te and u n d e r s t a n d i n g them b e t t e r i s l i k e l y t o l e a d t o r e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e needs a t t h e l a t e r s t a g e s o f p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g .

One o f t h e g r e a t e s t d i f f i c u l t i e s i n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g i s t h a t o f t e n i t i s i n i t i a t e d i n response t o p o o r l y d e f i ned o r i 1 I - d e f i n e d needs. Utmost e f f o r t s h o u l d be made t o i d e n t i f y t h e needs c a r e f u l l y , but sometimes one must p roceed even though t h e needs have n o t been as w e l l d e f i n e d as t h e y s h o u l d be. B u t l e t ' s assume t h a t we have s u c c e s s f u l l y i d e n t i f i e d t h e needs. Subsequent ly , t h e v e r b a l l y d e s c r i b e d needs must b e t r a n s l a t e d i n t o a f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e p rob lem. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f needs and p rob lem f o r m u l a t i o n a r e n o t t h e same t h i n g . As p u t b y Quade (1980) :

Problem f o r m u l a t i o n i s concerned w i t h such t h i n g s as d e t e r m i n i n g t h e g o a l s o r o b j e c t i v e s t o b e ach ieved b y a s o l u t i o n , s e t t i n g b o u n d a r i e s on what i s t o be i n v e s t i g a t e d , mak ing assumpt ions about t h e c o n t e x t , i d e n t i f y i n g t h e t a r g e t groups, and s e l e c t i n g t h e i n i t i a l approach t h e a n a l y s i s i s t o t a k e .

T r a n s l a t i o n o f needs i n t o a p rob lem f o r m u l a t i o n i s i t s e l f a process . I t undergoes changes i n t i m e w i t h r e s p e c t t o language and p r e c i s i o n . I n i t i a l l y , p r o b l e m f o r m u l a t i o n must be above a l l c o m p a t i b l e w i t h t h e language and p r e c i s i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h o s e who a r e charged w i t h p l a n i n i t i a t i o n

-24 -

r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s . But we ma Y e n c o u n t e r a v e r y w i d e spect rum o f d i f f e r e n t s i t u a t i o n s . Prob 1 em f o r m u l a t i o n f o r t h e i n i t i a t i o n o f a n a t i o n w i d e water r e s o u r c e s p l a n w i l l be l e s s s p e c i f i c t h a n , f o r example, p rob lem f o r m u l a t i o n f o r a r e l a t i v e l y w e l l - d e f i n e d r e g i o n a l water s u p p l y p r o j e c t . Hence, p rob lem f o r m u l a t i o n depends on t h e n a t u r e and scope o f t h e prob lem, on t h e p l a n n i n g l e v e l , on v a r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t s ( t e c h n i c a l , economic, p o l i t i c a l , e t c . ) t h a t must be t a k e n i n t o account , and above a l l on p r o j ec t o b j e c t i ves .

The case o f t h e f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n p r o j e c t i n t h e S u l m ca tchment i n t h e Federa l R e p u b l i c o f Germany (see Case Study 1) p r o v i d e s a good example o f how needs may be t r a n s l a t e d i n t o a p r o b 1 em f o r m u l a t i o n . The needs o f f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n i n t h i s catchment were known f o r a l o n g t ime, b u t t h e y r e a l l y s u r f a c e d a f t e r t h e d i s a s t r o u s f l o o d o f 1970. Most i m p o r t a n t , t h e Audi-NSU works, w h i c h s u f f e r e d f l o o d damage i n 1970 o f about 10 m i l l i o n DM, t h r e a t e n e d t o move t o a n o t h e r l o c a t i o n u n l e s s i t s s i t e s were p r o t e c t e d a g a i n s t f l o o d s s i m i l a r t o t h e one wh ich o c c u r r e d i n 1970. Consequent ly , a f l o o d - p r o t e c t i o n d i s t r i c t was e s t a b l i s h e d wh ich , i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e s t a t e w a t e r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , f ormu 1 a t e d t h e problem, worked o u t a p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n , and s u b m i t t e d t h e p l a n f o r app rova l t o t h e s t a t e l e g i s l a t u r e , w h i c h a l l o c a t e d necessary funds and a u t h o r i z e d i n i t i a t i o n o f t h e p l a n n i n g work.

i

The p l a n n i n g l e v e l s t h a t were d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter 1 (see sec . 1.3) d i f f e r i n c h a r a c t e r and scope f rom one c o u n t r y t o a n o t h e r , b u t a l l o f them r e q u i r e t h a t water p rob lems be f o r m u l a t e d i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e o v e r a l l econom i c and s o c i a l a s p i r a t i o n s o f a g i v e n r e g i o n o r n a t i o n . Some r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e r e g i o n a l and s u b r e g i o n a l l e v e l s o f c o n c e r n i s a lways necessary , w i t h i t s e x t e n t depend i ng on t h e d i s a g g r e g a t i o n o f t h e problems. I n

most cases, n a t i o n a l averages a r e i n s u f f i c i e n t f o r p l a n n i n g purposes, and t h i s concerns b o t h t h e supp ly and demand s i des o f water management. A t no p l a n n i n g l e v e l shou ld one look a t t h e problems e x c l u s i v e l y f rom t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f wa te r . For example, t h e a s s e r t i o n "We have t o i nc rease a g r i c u l t u r a l p roduc t i on" shou ld n o t 1 ead immediate ly t o "We need more i r r i g a t e d a g r i c u l t u r e . " The r e a l problem may be a b e t t e r d i s t r i b u t i o n system f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p roduc ts o r p r e v e n t i o n o f t h e i r s p o i l a g e .

The prob lem f o r m u l a t i o n depends t o a l a r g e e x t e n t on what i s accepted as t h e r e a l problem i n t h e r e g i o n o r s u b r e g i o n i n q u e s t i o n . For example, whether s p o r t i n g f i s h e r y i s a problem o r n o t depends v e r y much on t h e genera l development o f t h e r e g i o n and t h e a t t i t u d e s o f t h e l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n toward t h i s t y p e o f r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t y . B u i l d i n g a dam may be c o n s i d e r e d an env i ronmenta l problem i n a more a f f 1 uen t n a t u r e - a n d - c o n s e r v a t i o n - o r i e n t e d s o c i e t y , w h i l e such concerns w i l l be l e s s c r i t i c a l i n another s i t u a t i o n , such as when a dam c o n t r i b u t e s t o t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f b a d l y n'eeded food and f i b r e .

Problem f o r m u l a t i o n i s a lways s u b j e c t t o seve ra l c o n s t r a i n t s . Pol i t i ca 1 (adm i n i s t r a t i ve) and h y d r o l o g i c b o u n d a r i e s u s u a l l y do n o t i n t e r s e c t , t i m e and- budget a l l o c a t i o n for problem s o l u t i o n a r e o f t e n l i m i t e d , v a r i o u s r e g u l a t i o n s s i g n i f i c a n t l y narrow t h e range o f p l a n n i n g o p t i o n s , w a t e r demands a r e o f t e n exogenous t o t h e p l a n n i n g process , s k i l l e d and p r o f e s s i o n a l personnel a r e u n a v a i l a b l e - these a r e j u s t a few o f t h e c o n s t r a i n t s t h a t a lways impact problem f o r m u l a t i o n . The a p p r o p r i a t e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f each o f any such c o n s t r a i n t s b r i ngs p rob 1 em f o r m u l a t i o n c l o s e r t o becoming v i a b l e and imp lementab le .

Severa l i ssues r e l a t e d t o

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p rob lem f o r m u l a t i o n a r e d i s c u s s e d i n subsequent s e c t i o n s .

2.2 Dependency of plan form- ulation on "non-water" sectors

A f t e r t h e needs have been i d e n t i f i e d and the prob lem fo rmu la ted , one can s t a r t t h e p r e l i m i n a r y f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e p l a n . Because a p l a n i s concerned w i t h water , i t shou ld n o t n e c e s s a r i l y be c o n s i d e r e d a ' 'wa te r " p r o j e c t per se. The s o l u t i o n may i n f a c t be o n l y t a n g e n t i a l l y r e l a t e d t o water c o n t r o l and management. I t i s t hus v e r y i m p o r t a n t t h a t a l l p o s s i b l e compet ing o r complementary a s p e c t s o f "non-water" s e c t o r s o f t h e economy be c o n s i d e r e d b e f o r e t h e p r e l i m i n a r y f o r m u l a t i o n o f a water p l a n . T h i s p e r t a i n s t o such q u e s t i o n s as hydropower v s . thermal power developments, n a v i g a t i o n v s . r a i 1 r o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and s t r u c t u r a l f l o o d c o n t r o l measures vs . n o n s t r u c t u r a l f 1 oodp 1 a i n management. I n genera l t h i s addresses t h e i s s u e o f s u b s t i t u t i o n and t r a d e - o f f s . The i n t e r f a c e and in te rdependence o f water and r e l a t e d l and r e s o u r c e s w i t h o t h e r s e c t o r s o f t he economy shou ld be recogn ized i n p r e l i m i n a r y p r o j e c t f o r m u l a t i o n .

To what e x t e n t water r e s o u r c e s management i t s e l f can be t r e a t e d as an i n d i v i d u a l s e c t o r o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy i s another q u e s t i o n wh ich has no c l e a r answer. Even i n c e n t r a l l y p lanned economies, water management sometimes does n o t have a s e c t o r s t a t u s - water management r e s p o n s i b i 1 i t i e s a r e d , i s t r i b u t e d among s e v e r a l m i n i s t r i e s , such as those f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , energy, and pub1 i c works .

Water resources p lanners must o f t e n base t h e i r p l a n f o r m u l a t i o n on i m p e r f e c t i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g o t h e r s e c t o r s o f t h e economy. For example, water resources p l a n n e r s i n I s r a e l f o r m u l a t i n g t h e E a s t e r n Negev P r o j e c t (see Case Study 2) s t r e s s t h a t t h e development p l a n and schedu le f o r i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s were u n c e r t a i n , t h e f u t u r e c r o p p i n g p a t t e r n s were dub ious , and t h e o v e r a l l pace o f p h y s i c a l development

o f t h e r e g i o n was n o t s t a t e d c l e a r l y enough. Such d i f f i c u l t i e s s h o u l d be e x p l i c i t l y r e c o g n i z e d i n t h e p r e l i m i n a r y p r o j e c t f o rmu l a t i on phase.

2.3 Statement of project objectives

One o f t h e most i m p o r t a n t p a r t s o f p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n f o r m u l a t i o n i s a c l e a r s ta tement o f p r o j e c t obj e c t i ves . I t shou ld be remembered, however, t h a t i n most p r a c t i c a l s i t u a t i o n s , o b j e c t i v e s cannot be taken as g i v e n . As p o i n t e d o u t by H i t c h (1961) , i t i s usua 1 1 y i m p o s s i b l e t o d e f i n e a p p r o p r i a t e o b j e c t i v e s w i t h o u t knowing a g r e a t d e a l about t h e f e a s i b i 1 i t y and c o s t o f a c h i e v i n g them. And t h i s knowledge must be d e r i v e d f rom t h e a n a l y s i s . The g r e a t e s t d i f f i c u l t y i n s t a r t i n g w i t h g i v e n o b j e c t i v e s i s t h e f a c t t h a t most o f t e n they a r e m u l t i p l e and c o n f l i c t i n g , and t h a t a l t e r n a t i v e means o f s a t i s f y i n g any one o b j e c t i v e a r e l i k e l y t o p roduce s u b s t a n t i a l adverse e f f e c t s on a n o t h e r . Noth i ng b u t r i gorous q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s can t e l l whether a p a r t i c u l a r o b j e c t i v e makes sense o r n o t - whether i t i s f e a s i b l e , how much i t w i l l c o s t . Such a n a l y s i s and u l t i m a t e c h o i c e o f s o c i a l l y r e l e v a n t p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s r e q u i r e s judgment b o t h on t h e p a r t o f t h e water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n e r , and on t h e p a r t o f o t h e r p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess , e.g. , t h e p o l i t i c i a n s . T h i s i s s t r e s s e d by Major (1977) , who under1 i nes t h a t "much o f t h e c o n f u s i o n and d e b a t e about water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s t h a t have been proposed i n t h e r e c e n t yea rs has a r i s e n because t h e p l a n n e r s were n o t d e v e l o p i n g d e s i g n o p t i o n s r e s p o n s i v e t o t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e p o l i t i c a l p rocess . ' ' The p e r c e p t i o n o f p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s by t h e p u b l i c a t l a r g e and o t h e r c o n s t i t u e n c i e s i s e q u a l l y i m p o r t a n t .

The g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s a r e s t a t e d d i f f e r e n t l y a t t h e v a r i o u s p l a n n i n g l e v e l s . The ones a t t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l - f o r many good reasons t h a t a r e n o t about t o change - tend t o be g l o b a l (e.g., t o

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enhance n a t i ona 1 econom i c deve lopment , t o enhance s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g , t o enhance q u a l i t y , and t o enhance r e g i o n a l economic deve lopmen t ) . Moreover, t h e y do n o t d e t a i l t h e c o n f l i c t i n g i s s u e s . They a r e i n t e n t i o n a l l y as encompassing and as comprehensive as p o s s i b l e t o ensu re b road s u p p o r t by t h e v a r i o u s c o n s t i t u e n c i e s and s t a k e h o l d e r s . I n t h i s r e s p e c t , one s h o u l d keep i n m ind t h e " h o r s e - t r a d i n g " p r o c e s s t h a t i s so dominant when i t comes t o t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . The a r t o f n e g o t i a t i o n and compromise i s an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f t h a t p rocess , and f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s t o succeed, t h e p a r t i e s must s t a r t w i t h an a c c e p t a b l e agenda o f p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s t h a t can be m o d i f i e d d u r i n g t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s . Hav ing reached agreement abou t t h e g e n e r a l p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s , more f o c u s can b e c e n t e r e d on s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i v e s and t h e i r t r a n s l a t i o n i n t o d e s i g n c r i t e r i a . These c r i t e r i a r e q u i r e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e measures t h a t w i l l b e used t o assess t o what deg ree i n d i v i d u a l o b j e c t i v e s have been met .

The s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s u s u a l l y c o i n c i d e w i t h one w a t e r management purpose o r s e v e r a l , such as w a t e r supp ly , p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t f l o o d s , development o f n a v i g a t i o n , hydro-power p r o d u c t i o n . The case s t u d i e s p r e s e n t e d i n t h e Appendix o f t h i s book p r o v i d e an i l l u s t r a t i o n o f how d i f f e r e n t l y s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i v e s may b e s t a t e d . The o n l y e x p l i c i t o b j e c t i v e o f t h e E a s t e r n Negev P r o j e c t i n I s r a e l (see Case Study 2 ) was s a t i s f a c t i o n o f t h e i n c r e a s i n g w a t e r demands a t t h e l e a s t o v e r a l l c o s t . The o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n S tudy i n t h e U . S . (see Case Study 4) were t o p r o t e c t l a n d r e s o u r c e s , t o reduce e r o s i o n and s e d i m e n t a t i o n , t o improve w a t e r q u a l i t y , t o p r o t e c t f i s h and w i I d 1 i f e h a b i t a t s , t o enhance o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s , t o reduce f l o o d damages, and t o meet w a t e r s u p p l y needs. The o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e V i s t u l a R i v e r P r o j e c t i n Po land (see Case Study 6) were t o f o r m u l a t e a wa te r r e s o u r c e s deve lopment ( i nves tmen t ) p rogram c a p a b l e o f m e e t i n g water management t a s k s ( p r i m a r i l y wa te r s u p p l y , f l o o d c o n t r o l , and wa te r q u a l i t y c o n t r o l )

t h a t were p r o j e c t e d t o t h e y e a r s 1985 and 2000 (15 and 30 years t i m e hor i zon, r e s p e c t i v e l y ) . The o b j e c t i v e o f t h e A d e l a i d e Water Resources Study i n A u s t r a l i a (see Case Study 5) was t o make recommendations f o r a program o f works c o n s t r u c t i on and f o r p a r t i c u l a r o p e r a t i n g p o l i c i e s , i n o r d e r t o p r o v i d e a w a t e r supp ly for m e t r o p o l i t a n A d e l a i d e ove r t h e n e x t 30 yea rs .

Even t h e s e few examples o f p r o j e c t o b j ec t i ves show t h a t , depending on t h e c h a r a c t e r and t h e scope o f t h e p r o j e c t , o b j e c t i v e s can be s t a t e d i n v e r y d i f f e r e n t ways.

2.4 Project constraints

The e v a l u a t i o n o f p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s l e a d s t o a l t e r n a t i v e s , whi l e c o n s t r a i n t s r e s t r i c t a l t e r n a t i v e s and reduce t h e i r number. However, from an e v a l u a t i o n p o i n t o f v i e w , c o n s t r a i n t s o f t e n have a f u n c t i o n s i m i l a r t o o b j e c t i v e s . As p o i n t e d o u t by Simon ( 1 964) :

I t i s d o u b t f u l whether d e c i s i o n s a r e g e n e r a l l y d i r e c t e d towards a g o a l . I t i s e a s i e r and c l e a r e r t o v iew d e c i s i o n s as b e i n g concerned w i t h d i s c o v e r i n g courses o f a c t i o n t h a t s a t i s f y a who le s e t o f c o n s t r a i n t s . I t i s

' t h i s s e t , and n o t any one o f i t s members, t h a t i s most a c c u r a t e l y v iewed as t h e goa l o f t h e a c t i o n . . . . Whether we t r e a t a l l t h e c o n s t r a i n t s s y m m e t r i c a l l y or r e f e r t o some a s y m m e t r i c a l l y as g o a l s , i s l a r g e l y a m a t t e r o f l i n g u i s t i c o r a n a l y t i c convenience.

When a d i s t i n c t i o n between o b j e c t i v e s (goa ls ) and c o n s t r a i n t s i s made, i t i s u s u a l l y based on t h e m i s c o n c e p t i o n o f a c c e p t i n g t h e c o n s t r a i n t as an abso l U t e r e s t r i c t i o n . C o n s t r a i n t s must n o t be t r e a t e d as s a c r e d l y i n v i o l a b l e . They must be s c r u t i n i z e d f rom many p o i n t s o f v i e w as t h e a n a l y s i s proceeds and t e c h n i c a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s emerge, and t h e i r r o l e s shou ld b e s u b j e c t t o change.

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C o n s t r a i n t s genera 1 1 y c o n s i d e r e d i n water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g v a r y w i d e l y . They may be o f t e c h n i c a l and economic n a t u r e , b u t a l s o i m p o r t a n t and o f t e n o v e r l o o k e d o r u n d e r e s t i m a t e d a r e i n s t i t u t i ona l and c u l t u r a l c o n s t r a i n t s wh ich r u l e o u t c e r t a i n p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n g e n e r a l , a l l c o n s t r a i n t s s h o u l d be e x p l i c i t l y s p e c i f i e d and open t o debate i n t h e p l a n i n i t i a t i o n phase t o a v o i d c o n t r o v e r s i e s t h a t may s u r f a c e a t l a t e r s tages o f p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g o r imp lementa t ion .

The case s t u d i e s i n t h i s book s p e c i f y a wide spect rum o f d i f f e r e n t c o n s t r a i n t s . Time, f u n d i ng, t e c h n i c a l , and t e c h n o l o g i c a l c o n s t r a i n t s a r e most common, b u t l e g a l c o n s t r a i n t s a r e a l s o ment ioned q u i t e o f t e n . For example, t h e n a t i o n a l laws i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a t t h e t i m e o f t h e Maumee Study p laced i m p o r t a n t water qua l i t y r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s i n the hands o f t h e s t a t e s . As a consequence, t h e s t a t e s were n o t p r e p a r e d t o d r a f t a water q u a l i t y management p l a n f o r an e n t i r e b a s i n . Q u i t e o f t e n t h e p l a n n e r s a r e a l s o c o n s t r a i n e d b y t h e r e q u i r e m e n t o f u s i n g o n l y e x i s t i n g da ta , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f how adequate t h e d a t a base i s f o r t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f a p l a n (see Case Study 3 ) . Lack o f adequate da ta , e x i s t i n g s t r u c t u r e s , and p lans o f o t h e r agenc ies a r e a l s o q u i t e common c o n s t r a i n t s .

Some c o n s t r a i n t s a r e permanent and can never be v i o l a t e d , w h i l e o t h e r s a r e b i n d i n g i n t h e s h o r t r u n and may b e changed by t h e passage o f t i m e o r removed by i nven t i o n o r t e c h n o l o g i c a l improvement. Thus, some c o n s t r a i n t s a r e f i r m , o t h e r s l ess so. But i r r e s p e c t i v e o f t h e n a t u r e o f a p a r t i c u l a r c o n s t r a i n t , i t i s t h e p r o f e s s i o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f t h e systems a n a l y s t t o p o i n t o u t t h e i n f l u e n c e o f i t s marg ina l c o s t on t h e p r o j e c t outcomes. I f t h e systems a n a l y s t i s t o l d t h a t someth ing he b e l i e v e s t o be r e l e v a n t shou ld n o t o r c a n n o t be cons ide red , he must c l a r i f y t o t h e dec is ion-makers what t h e consequences m i g h t be.

2.5 Agencies and personnel involved

The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l t h e p l a n n e r s a r e f a c e d i n i t i a t i n g a w a t e r

s t r u c t u r e w i t h when r e s o u r c e s

p l a n n i n g e f f o r t i s more o f t e n t h a n n o t a " g e o l o g i c a l " a c c u m u l a t i o n o f p a s t o r g a n i z a t i o n a l compromises (W i ener 1972) . Somet i mes t h e e x i s t i n g s t r u c t u r e f i t s t h e o b j e c t i v e s of t h e p r o j e c t ; sometimes i t must be bypassed and a new p l a n n i n g e n t i t y be c r e a t e d . No h a r d and f a s t r u l e d e t e r m i n e s what i s b e s t f o r each s p e c i f i c case.

I f a n a t i o n a l agency charged w i t h w a t e r p l a n n i n g i s a l r e a d y i n e x i s t e n c e and t h e p r o j e c t i s n o t o f a v e r y l o c a l sca le , t h i s agency i s t h e one w h i c h u s u a l l y takes t h e l e a d and p r e p a r e s t h e p l a n . T h i s was t h e case o f t h e V i s t u l a P r o j e c t i n Poland (see Case Study 6 ) . where t h e c o n s u l t i n g f i r m o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n t h e framework o f t h e N a t i o n a l Water Author i t y was charged w i t h p r e p a r a t i o n o f a p l a n i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h about 40 r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t i o n s r e p r e s e n t i n g a1 1 m i n i s t r i e s concerned. The deve 1 opmen t o f p l a n n i n g methodology was a s s i g n e d t o a s p e c i a l l y formed r e s e a r c h team o f about 20 s p e c i a l i s t s who c o o p e r a t e d c l o s e l y w i t h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l pane l o f U n i t e d Na t ions Development Programme (UNDP) e x p e r t s t h r o u g h o u t t h e e n t i r e d u r a t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t . UNDP e x p e r t s a s s i s t e d a l s o i n t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e Upper Mures P r o j e c t i n Romania (see Case Study 91, wh ich was a s s i g n e d t o a n a t i o n a l water r e s e a r c h and d e s i g n i n s t i t u t e ( p a r t o f t h e Romanian N a t i o n a l Water A u t h o r i t y ) r e p o r t i n g d i r e c t l y t o t h e Permanent E x e c u t i v e Body o f t h e Upper Mures P r o j e c t . The E a s t e r n Negev P r o j e c t i n I s r a e l (see Case Study 2) was p r e p a r e d by t h e n a t i ona 1 water p l a n n i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n , a l t h o u g h t h e p r o j e c t was r e l a t i v e l y sma l l and two w a t e r r e s o u r c e s eng ineers , one programmer, and one s t u d e n t were s u f f i c i e n t t o t a k e c a r e o f t h e system d e s i g n .

Somewhat d i f f e r e n t o r g a n i z a t i o n may be encountered i n o t h e r c o u n t r i e s . For i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e Study o f D r i n k i n g Water Supp ly

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i n t h e p r o v i n c e o f South H o l l a n d i n t h e N e t h e r l a n d s (see Case Study 3 ) , d i s t i n c t i o n was made between governmenta l p l a n n i n g and t e c h n i c a l p l a n n i n g . The f i r s t one has been dea 1 t w i t h by t h e S t e e r i n g Commit tee, whose members were t o p a d m i n i s t r a t o r s o f c e n t r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments. The t e c h n i c a l p l a n n i n g has been c a r r i e d o u t by s e v e r a l r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t i o n s under s u p e r v i s i o n o f t h e N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r Water Supp ly . Almost a l l t h e p e o p l e c a r r y i n g o u t t h e s t u d y have academic degrees. The d i s c i p l i n e s r e p r e s e n t e d v a r y f rom mathemat ics and e n g i n e e r i n g t o b i o l o g y , and t h e g r o u p i n c l u d e d e x p e r t s on t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l b e h a v i o u r o f t h e l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n .

For t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Study i n t h e USA (see Case Study 41, t h e Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission formed a p l a n n i n g board , w i t h members f rom t h r e e s t a t e s and f o u r f e d e r a l government agenc ies . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e r e l a t i v e l y h i g h l y s k i l l e d personne l i n t h e s t a t e and f e d e r a l agenc ies , t h e Commission was a s s i s t e d by a smal l research team f r o m a u n i v e r s i t y .

The o n l y agency d i r e c t l y i nvo 1 ved i n t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A d e l a i d e Water Resources Study i n A u s t r a l i a (see Case Study 5 ) was t h e Eng i neer i ng and Water Supply Department o f South A u s t r a l i a , r e s p o n s i b l e a t t h e t i m e o f t h e s tudy t o t h e M i n i s t e r o f Works o f t h e Government o f South A u s t r a l i a . The development i n t e r a c t e d w i t h t h e R i v e r Murray Commission, a body on w h i c h t h e government o f a l l t h e s t a t e s o f South A u s t r a l i a i n v o l v e d i n t h e s t u d y were r e p r e s e n t e d as w e l l as t h e Federa l Government o f A u s t r a l i a . The s k i l l e d pe rsonne l i n v o l v e d i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s were eng i neer s and an e n g i n e e r - e c o n o m i s t o f t h e above-ment ioned Depar tment .

The Susa Research Program i n Denmark (see Case Study 7) was l e d by t h e Dan ish Commi t t e e f o r H y d r o l o g y . The s u b p r o j e c t c o n c e r n i ng management o f water r e s o u r c e s was c a r r i e d o u t by t h r e e

o r g a n i z a t i o n s - a r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t e ( u n i v e r s i t y ) , an i n s t i t u t e f o r a p p l i e d research (commercial b a s i s , nonpro f i t ) , and a p r i v a t e , government-suppor ted agency ( n o n p r o f i t ) .

P l a n n i n g a system o f f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n r e s e r v o i r s f o r t he Sulm Catchment i n t h e FRG (see Case Study 1) was c a r r i e d o u t by the l o c a l S t a t e Wate r A d m i n i s t r a t i o n Bureau, wh ich m a i n t a i n s a s t a f f capab le o f hand 1 i ng a1 1 t e c h n i c a l and a d m i n i s t r a t v e tasks . The Bureau was a s s i s t e d by a smal 1 team o f u n i v e r s i t y research peop le .

The g r e a t v a r i e t y o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l invo lvement i s e v i d e n t , and t h e examples c i t e d above a r e j u s t some o f t h e many p o s s i b l e ar rangements. Most o f t h e agencies were a s s i s t e d i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s by e x t e r n a l e x p e r t s , m o s t l y f rom u n i v e r s i t i e s . T h i s i s u n d e r s t a n d a b l e , s i nce government agenc ies i n many c o u n t r i e s have deve loped a s p e c i f i c m i s s i o n o r m i s s i o n s ove r t h e years . To ensure t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f a s u f f i c i e n t l y comprehensive p l a n and t o p r o v i d e f o r e v a l u a t i o n o f s e v e r a l p r o j e c t o p t i o n s , a m i x o f agenc ies i s p r e f e r a b l e , u s u a l l y w i t h one o f them e n t r u s t e d w i t h t h e l e a d e r s h i p and c o o r d i n a t i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s .

2.6 Selection and utilization of experts

I n t h e p l a n i n i t i a t i o n and p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g phase, i t becomes necessary a l s o t o ensure t h a t c o n t r d i f f e r e n t m u l t i d i s c i p resources p i n t e r d i s c i p t a k e p l a c e r e s u l t s a r e than i n t e r d

b u t i o n s a r e made by many e x p e r t s . The

i n a r y n a t u r e o f water ann ing n e c e s s i t a t e s t h a t i n a r y i n t e r a c t i o n shou ld among them. U s u a l l y t h e

more m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y s c i p l i n a r y , meaning t h a t -

a l t h o u g h t . . e re i s i n t e r a c t i o n , i t tends t o t a k e t h e shape o f a p r e s e n t a t i o n o f r e s u l t s by t h e i n d i v i d u a l e x p e r t s as seen i n t h e l i g h t o f t h e i r own e x p e r t i s e .

t n m n nf thn m n e t i m n n r t a n t

p r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r t h e success o f an

i n t e r d i s c i p i n a r y s tudy a r e ( 1 ) d e v e l o p i n g mutual t r u s t among t h e e x p e r t s and ( 2 ) h e l p i n g each e x p e r t t o r e a l i z e t h a t w i t h i n h i s o r her own d i s c i p i ne he or she can c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e o v e r a l l s tudy e f f o r t . Thus each recogn izes t h a t h i s o r her c o n t r i b u t i o n i s b e i n g 1 i s tened t o as w o r t h w h i l e . A d d i t i o n a l c o n d i t i o n s f o r p r o j e c t success i nc 1 ude the mutua l development among e x p e r t s o f a s p i r i t o f c o o p e r a t i o n and t h e a b i l i t y t o overcome a n a t u r a l b i a s among t h e d i s c i p l i n e s so t h a t d i f f e r e n t o r oppos ing p o i n t s o f v iew, approaches, and b e l i e f s w i l l be t o l e r a t e d . The t i m e needed f o r these c o n d i t i o n s t o d e v e l o p and mature and t h e f a c t t h a t a lmos t every e x p e r t j o i n s t h e team w i t h h i s o r her own preconce ived n o t i o n o f what c o n s t i t u t e s a p l a n n i n g s tudy may e x p l a i n why, d u r i n g t h e p r e l i m i n a r y phase, much t i m e may be spent i n p h i l o s o p h i c a l d i s c u s s i o n s t h a t o f t e n seem t r i v i a l and end less . I t i s he re t h a t w e l l - d e v e l o p e d and a c c e p t a b l e g u i d e l i n e s f o r r e g i o n a l o r r i v e r - b a s i n p l a n n i n g wou ld have t h e most impact on s t r e a m l i n i n g such c o s t l y , t ime-consuming debates .

U s u a l l y t h e r e a r e two major groups o f e x p e r t s i n v o l v e d i n t h e p l a n i n i t i a t i o n and p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g phase. F i r s t , t h e r e a r e e x p e r t s who a r e c a p a b l e o f f o r m u l a t i n g t h e system concep ts . They must i n t e r a c t w i t h o t h e r groups who have e x p e r t i s e i n water s u p p l y , i n d u s t r i a l water use, i r r i g a t i o n , hydro-power p r o d u c t i o n , f o r e s t r y , and t h e l i k e . I t i s o f u tmost impor tance t h a t t h e systems a n a l y s t s and d i s c i p l i n a r y e x p e r t s f u l l y u n d e r s t a n d the p r o j e c t purposes and o b j e c t i v e s . T h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y i m p o r t a n t when t h e d i s c i p l i n a r y e x p e r t s i d e n t i f y c o n s t r a i n t s t h a t reduce t h e mode l ing freedom o f t h e systems a n a l y s t s . I t i s i m p o r t a n t a l s o t o c o n s u l t e x p e r t s who a r e n o t p r o j e c t - s p e c i f i c , such as l awyers , b i o l o g i s t s who i n v e s t i g a t e r a r e spec ies , a r c h e o l o g i s t s , landscape a r c h i t e c t s , e t c .

The bus iness o f whom t o s e l e c t i s i n p a r t de termined by t h e l o c a l l y

a v a i l a b l e e x p e r t i s e and t h e scope o f t h e p r o j e c t . E x p e r t s s h o u l d b e c a r e f u l l y s e l e c t e d , and i n q u i r i e s t o t h e i r f ormer cu s t omer s and e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e i r p r e v i o u s work may be v e r y u s e f u l and a d v i s a b l e . The most i m p o r t a n t e x p e r t t o b e s e l e c t e d i s t h e p r o j e c t l e a d e r . He must n o t o n l y be an e x p e r t i n w a t e r resources p l a n n i n g , he must a l s o b e

H i s t a l e n t s and a l e a d e r . persona 1 i t y a r e o f c r u c i a 1 impor t a n c e t o t h e success f u 1 compl e t i on o f t h e p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t i e s .

2.7 Public participation

For t h e purpose o f t h i s s e c t i o n , t h e word p u b l i c r e f e r s t o an i n d i v i d u a l o r a g roup n o t h a v i n g t h e governmenta l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g a u t h o r i t y . P u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e f e r s t o t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f such i n d i v i d u a l s o r groups i n t r y i n g t o i n f l u e n c e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . P u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n shou ld n o t be a one-way s t r e e t . I t s h o u l d n o t o n l y be a way o f a s c e r t a i n i n g d i f f e r e n t v iews, b u t i t s h o u l d a l s o p r o v i d e those whose i n t e r e s t s may b e a f f e c t e d an o p p o r t u n i t y t o l e a r n about t h e d e c i s i o n s b e i n g made. I t i s i m p o r t a n t , however, t o f i n d a way t o i n s u r e t h a t e x p r e s s i o n and c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f p u b l i c v i e w p o i n t s do n o t i m p r o p e r l y impede t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p rocess . A c c o r d i n g t o U . S . sources ( N a t i o n a l Water Commission 1973) , d e t e r m i n i n g t h e r o l e t h a t p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n shou ld p l a y i n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g r e q u i r e s d i s c o v e r i n g (a) t h e l i m i t a t i o n s i n h e r e n t i n p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n , (b) t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s t h a t must b e met t o ensure adequate p a r t i c i p a t i o n , and (c) how t h a t p a r t i c i p a t i o n shou ld be s t r u c t u r e d .

I n s e v e r a l c o u n t r i e s , w a t e r r e s o u r c e s management and p l a n n i n g i s t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f s p e c i a l i z e d agenc ies wh ich r e p r e s e n t t h e i n t e r e s t s o f a l l w a t e r u s e r s and t h e p u b l i c a t l a r g e . The p u b l i c i s , t h e r e f o r e , r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s by v i r t u e o f t h e f a c t t h a t r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f s e v e r a l c o n s t i t u e n c i e s s e r v e on p r a c t i c a l l y a1 1 governmenta l and 1 oca 1

-30-

a d m i n i s t r a t i o n agenc ies . Such a g e n c i e s , o f c o u r s e , must l i s t e n c a r e f u l l y t o t h e concerns and o p i n i o n s v o i c e d b y t h e d i f f e r e n t i n t e r e s t g roups t h a t p r o v i d e t h i s i n p u t i n t o t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess . Concern ing t h e p u b l i c a t l a r g e , e f f o r t s s h o u l d be made t o keep i t i n f o r m e d about t h e p r o g r e s s o f t h e p r o j e c t b y p r e s e n t i n g i n t h e mass med ia (o r even a t s p e c i a l mee t ings , such as a r e h e l d i n t h e Ne the r lands ) summaries o f t h e "work t o d a t e . " P r o j e c t r e s u l t s s h o u l d a l s o be d i s s e m i n a t e d f o r p u b l i c s c r u t i n y and comment t h r o u g h t h e v a r i o u s agenc ies i n v o l v e d i n t h e s t u d y .

I n some cases , however, s p e c i a l g roups a r e formed, such as t h e C i t i z e n s ' A d v i s o r y Committee f o r t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n S tudy i n t h e USA (see Case Study 4 ) , wh ich was a f o r m a l e n t i t y w i t h an a p p o i n t e d membership. These appo in tmen ts were made t h r o u g h v a r i o u s c i v i c g roups , such as t h e League o f Women V o t e r s , t h e S i e r r a Club, e t c . W i t h such a s t r o n g b a c k i n g from a b r o a d c i v i c c o n s t i t u e n c y , a f o r m a l mandate t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess , and a budget a l l o c a t e d f r o m t h e p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g funds , t h e Committee was v o c a l and i n f l u e n t i a l . The re a r e o t h e r ways e q u a l l y e f f e c t i v e , e.g., t h e c i t i z e n s ' p a r t i c i p a t i o n done i n t h e F R G .

A l though t h e fo rms o f p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n may be more o r l e s s f o r m a l i z e d i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s , i t i s i m p o r t a n t , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e p l a n i n i t i a t i o n phase, t o expand i t as much as i s p r a c t i c a l and r e a s o n a b l e . I t s h o u l d be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e r e a r e no f i r m a p r i o r i g rounds f o r b e l i e v i n g t h a t t h e e n g i n e e r s o f a w a t e r a u t h o r i t y o r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f any o t h e r governmenta l agency know f u l l y what t h e pub1 i c wants and what i s " b e s t " f o r t h e p u b l i c .

2.8 Preliminary selection of systems analysis tools

The p l a n n i n g p rocess s h o u l d be d r i v e n by t h e g o a l s , o b j e c t i v e s , and i s s u e s o f c o n c e r n and n o t by s p e c i f i c p l a n n i n g me thodo log ies t h a t

t h e p l a n n e r s a r e a c q u a i n t e d w i t h . Acco rd ing t o M i s e r (1982), s i x p r i n c i p l e s of t h a t c h o i c e may b e e n u n c i a t e d . A n a l y t i c t o o l s s h o u l d be chosen t h a t a r e

1 . a p p r o p r i a t e t o t h e prob lem and t o t h e p r o s p e c t i v e s o l u t i o n s t h a t may emerge.

2. matched a p p r o p r i a t e l y t o t h e a v a i l a b l e da ta , s i n c e an a t t r a c t i v e method t h a t c a l l s f o r n o n e x i s t e n t d a t a canno t y i e l d t r u s t w o r t h y r e s u l t s .

3 . i n t e r n a l l y c o n s i s t e n t ( t h e s o p h i s t i c a t e d a n a l y s i s o f one p a r t s h o u l d n o t b e bludgeoned by hazy specu 1 a t i o n i n a n o t h e r ) .

4. ba lanced i n d e t a i l and accu racy ( i f one e n t e r s w i t h

o rde r -o f -magn i tude e s t i m a t e s , one i s seldom e n t i t l e d t o f i v e - f i g u r e accuracy i n t h e r e s u l t s , o r , i f a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s a r e combined w i t h v e r y q u e s t i o n a b l e e s t i m a t e s , t h i s f a c t shou ld be r e f l e c t e d i n how t h e r e s u l t s a r e p r e s e n t e d ) .

5 . a p p r o p r i a t e l y i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y i n t h e l i g h t o f an a p p r e c i a t i o n o f t h e prob lem w i t h wh ich t h e work began and i s b e i n g c o n t i n u e d .

6 . a p p r o p r i a t e , i f a t a1 1 p o s s i b l e , t o t h e process o f p r e s e n t i ng t h e f i nd i ngs t h a t w i l l emerge a t t h e end o f t h e p l a n n i n g s tudy ( t h e c l i e n t w i l l s u r e l y n o t want t o poke i n t o d e t a i l s , b u t some u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e ana 1 y t i c t o o l s has p e r s u a s i v e v a l u e f o r many u s e r s o f systems a n a l y s i s r e s u l t s ) .

A d d i t i o n a l a d v i c e i s o f f e r e d b y R a i f f a (1982) c o n c e r n i n g t h e use o f models i n systems a n a l y s i s and p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s :

I n mode l i ng r e a l i t y f o r p o l i c y gu idance t h e r e a r e a h o s t o f o p t i o n s t o c o n s i d e r . F i r s t o f a1 1 some adv ice : Beware o f

- 3 1 -

genera l purpose g r a n d i o s e models t h a t t r y t o i n c o r p o r a t e p r a c t i c a l l y e v e r y t h i n g . Such mode 1 s a r e d i f f i c u l t t o Val i d a t e , t o i n t e r p r e t , t o c a l i b r a t e s t a t i s t i c a l l y , t o m a n i p u l a t e , and most i m p o r t a n t l y t o e x p l a i n . You may be b e t t e r o f f n o t w i t h one b i g model b u t w i t h a s e t o f s i m p l e r models, s t a r t i n g o f f w i t h s i m p l e d e t e r m i n i s t i c ones and c o m p l i c a t i n g t h e model i n s tages as s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s shows t h e need f o r such c o m p l i c a t i o n s . A model does n o t have t o address a l l aspec ts o f t h e problem. I t s h o u l d be des igned t o a i d i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e dynami c i n t e r a c t i o n s o f some phase o f your problem. Other models can address o t h e r phases.

A l t h o u g h s e l e c t i o n o f methods and systems a n a l y s i s t o o l s t o be employed f o r p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g s h o u l d n o t be done t o o e a r l y , t h e p l a n i n i t i a t i o n and p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g phase s h o u l d i n v o l v e some p r e l i m i n a r y work c o n c e r n i n g t h e i r c h o i c e . The e x t e n t o f t h i s work depends on t h e c h a r a c t e r and t h e scope o f t h e p r o j e c t and on s e v e r a l o t h e r f a c t o r s , but most o f t e n t h e r e a r e i n i t i a l l y a f e w ( i . e . , n o t t o o many) i n d i v i d u a l s who a r e f a m i l i a r n o t o n l y w i t h t h e s u b j e c t m a t t e r o f t h e p r o j e c t i n q u e s t i o n b u t a l s o w i t h systems a n a l y s i s and i t s t o o l s . They s h o u l d examine what a n a l y t i c methods r e l a t e d t o t h e p r o j e c t a r e r e a d i 1 y ( i n c l ud i ng e x a m i n a t i o n o f computer hardware and s o f t w a r e ) , what a d a p t i o n s and new m e t h o d o l o g i c a l developments m i g h t be necessary , and what manpower and f i nanc i a1 computa t i ona 1 r e s o u r c e s a r e a v a i l a b l e t o do t h e j o b . The d a t a a v a i l a b l e and t i m e c o n s t r a i n t s a r e i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s i n such an a n a l y s i s . F i n a l s e l e c t i o n t o o l s and methods t o be used i n d a t a p rocess i ng, and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s a lmost a lways a compromise between what one wants t o do and what one can do under g i v e n c i r cums tances . F r e q u e n t l y i t i s u s e f u 1 t o make some b a c k - o f - t h e - e n v e l o p e c a l c u l a t i o n s based on s i m p l i f i e d assumptions j u s t

ava i 1 ab1 e

and

man i pu 1 a t i on,

t o g e t an i dea o f what can be expec ted i f more e l a b o r a t e methods a r e t o be used.

Almost a l 1 case s t u d i e s examined i n t h i s book i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e s e l e c t i o n o f systems a n a l y s i s t o o l s and development o f t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l approach w i l l be accompanied b y some d i s p u t e s , e s p e c i a l l y i f a p p l i c a t i o n o f some o f t h e more advanced methods i s c o n s i d e r e d (e.g., t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f method a p p l i e d i n t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n S t u d y ) . However, even i n case o f c o n s i d e r a b l e d i sag reemen t o n t h e methodo logy t o b e used, such d i s p u t e s can have a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on t h e u l t i m a t e outcome o f t h e ana l ys i s .

What a r e t h e m a j o r q u e s t i o n s t o be addressed i n t h e p r e l i m i n a r y s e l e c t i o n o f systems a n a l y s i s t o o l s ? One o f t h e most c r i t i c a l q u e s t i o n s i s how t o h a n d l e p r o j e c t u n c e r t a i n t i e s due t o t h e s h o r t - and long - te rm v a r i a b i l i t y o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s ( p r i m a r i l y p r e c i p i t a t i o n and s t reamf low) . But t h e u n c e r t a i n t y i s s u e i s n o t l i m i t e d t o h y d r o l o g i c p rocesses : i t r e l a t e s a l s o t o p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s , w a t e r demand p r o j e c t i o n s , and s e v e r a 1 o t h e r f a c t o r s embedded i n t h e soc ioeconomic c o n t e x t o f a g i v e n p r o j e c t . Another t y p i c a l q u e s t i o n i s whether a l t e r n a t i v e p r o j e c t s o l u t i o n s s h o u l d be examined and compared b y s i m u l a t i o n , o r t h e "bes t " s o l u t i on b e d i r e c t l y i d e n t i f i e d b y a p p l i c a t i o n o f one o f t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s . I n case o f more complex p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s , s i m u l a t i o n i s u s u a l l y a more p r e f e r a b l e approach; however, q u i t e o f t e n s i m u l a t i o n i s c o u p l e d w i t h some k i n d o f sca 1 a r ( s i n g l e - o b j e c t i v e ) o r v e c t o r (mu1 t i p l e - o b j e c t i v e ) o p t i m i z a t i on, e.g. , f o r o p t i m i z a t i o n of w a t e r r e s o u r c e s a l l o c a t i o n a t each s i m u l a t i o n s tep .

The prob lem o f t h e sys tems a n a l y s t i s t o f i n d t h a t p a r t i c u l a r t o o l o r s e t o f t o o l s t h a t w i l l co r respond b e s t t o t h e p r o j e c t needs.

2.9 References

H i t c h , C.J. 1981. On the c h o i c e o f o b j e c t i v e s i n systems s t u d i e s . I n Systems: Research and Design. Proceed ings o f t h e F i r s t Systems Symposium a t Case I n s t i t u t e o f Technology, e d i t e d by D.P. Eckmann: Wi ley , New York .

M a j o r , D . C . 1977. M u l t i o b j e c t i v e s Water Resources P lann ing , Water

American Geophysica l Union, Washington, D.C .

Resources Monograph No. 4.

M i s e r , H.J., and E.S. Quade, (eds.) . 1984. Handbook o f

S y s t ems A n a l y s i s . N o r t h - H o l l a n d , New York

N a t i o n a l Water Commission. 1973. Water P o l i c i e s f o r t h e F u t u r e . F i n a l R e p o r t t o t h e P r e s i d e n t and t o . t h e Congress o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s by t h e N a t i o n a l Water Cornmission, Washington, D.C.

Quade, E . S . 1980. P i t f a l l s i n f o r m u l a t i o n and mode l ing . I n P i t f a l l s o f A n a l y s i s , e d i t e d by G . Majone and E . S . Quade. Wi ley , New York.

R a i f f a , H . 1982. P o l i c y A n a l y s i s . A C h e c k l i s t o f Concerns, pp. 82-2 , I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d Systems A n a l y s i s , Laxenburg, A u s t r i a .

Simon, H . 1964. On t h e concept o f o r g a n i z a t i o n g o a l .

Sc i ence A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Q u a r t e r l y g ( 1 ) .

Wiener, A . 1972. The Ro le o f Water i n Development. McGraw-Hi l l , New York.

..

3. Data collection and processing

Chapter 3 i s concerned w i t h d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and p r o c e s s i n g , wh ich c o n s t i t u t e Stage 2 o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess . I n t h i s s t a g e t h e d a t a needed f o r t h e p r o j e c t shou ld be c o l l e c t e d and t h e i r q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y e v a l u a t e d , and d e c i s i o n s s h o u l d be made on t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l d a t a concern ing t h e h y d r o l o g i c reg ime o f t h e water bod ies , wa te r q u a l i t y , wa te r use, and a l t e r n a t i v e ways o f p r o j e c t i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and i t s o p e r a t i o n as w e l l as demograph ica l , economica l , and e c o l o g i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n .

The d a t a c o l l e c t i o n process r e q u i r e s l i s t i n g o f sources o f da ta , e x p l o r a t i o n o f these sources , i n q u i r i e s about o t h e r p o s s i b l e d a t a sources , e v a l u a t i o n o f d a t a q u a l i t y , and t a b u l a t i o n o f da ta f o r t h e i r f i n a l p r o c e s s i n g . T h i s p rocess i n v o l v e s many e x p e r t s , because t h e d a t a c o l l e c t e d must be p u r p o s e - o r i e n t e d . The purpose must gove rn t h e t ype , t h e accuracy , and t h e t i m e h o r i z o n o f t he d a t a . For example, d a t a needs f o r n a t i o n a l o r r e g i o n a l l ong - te rm water resources p l a n n i n g a r e d i s c u s s e d i n t h e handbook f o r n a t i o n a l e v a l u a t i o n o f water r e s o u r c e s assessment a c t i v i t i es (Unesco/WMO 198 1) . 3.1 Specification of data needs

When t h e p l a n i n i t i a t i o n and p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g r e s u l t i n a u t h o r i z a t i o n t o proceed f u r t h e r , t h e p l a n n i n g e f f o r t e n t e r s t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and p r o c e s s i n g phase. Always some d a t a a r e a l r e a d y a v a i l a b l e f rom t h e p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g ana lyses , b u t i n most cases they a r e i n s u f f i c i e n t f o r g e n e r a t i o n o f p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s and t h e i r e v a l u a t i o n . A t t h i s p o i n t a more comple te d a t a base i s needed (concern ing h y d r o l o g i c d a t a see, f o r example, Andre janov 1975) . I n p r i n c i p l e , t h e r e a r e t h r e e p o s s i b l e s i t u a t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g c o l l e c t i o n o f

a d d i t i o n a l da ta . F i r s t , we c o l l e c t whatever i s a l r e a d y a v a i l a b l e and p e r t i n e n t t o t h e p r o j e c t g o a l s w i t h o u t i n i t i a t i n g any s p e c i f i c f i e l d measurement programs. Second, i t may be found t h a t t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a a r e v e r y l i m i t e d and f u r t h e r p l a n n i n g r e q u i r e s t h a t a d d i t i o n a l o b s e r v a t i o n s and measurements b e made. i n t h i s case t h e p r o b a b l e o p p o r t u n i t y l o s s o f d e l a y i n g t h e p r o j e c t u n t i l enough a d d i t i o n a l d a t a a r e c o l l e c t e d must be c a r e f u l l y e v a l u a t e d , t a k i n g i n t o accoun t what r i s k s o f p r o j e c t inadequacy can b e accepted . F i n a l l y , t h e t h i r d p o s s i b l e s i t u a t i o n i s a m ix o f t h e two o t h e r : t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a base i s supplemented w i t h some a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d i n t h e f i e l d by means o f ad hoc and h i g h l y s e l e c t i v e measurement programs o f s h o r t d u r a t i on.

To what e x t e n t an a c t u a l s i t u a t i o n co r responds t o one o f t h e t h r e e p o s s i b i l i t i e s men t ioned above depends v e r y much on t h e agreement o f t h e e x p e r t s i nvo 1 ved i n p r e p a r a t i o n o f a p l a n . As p o i n t e d o u t i n Chapter 2 , e x p e r t o p i n i o n s c o n c e r n i n g d a t a needs may v a r y q u i t e w i d e l y . E x p e r t s w i t h know-how i n t h e t e c h n i c a l d i s c i p l i n e s may p r e s s f o r much more d e t a i l e d d a t a t h a n i s r e q u i r e d b y t h e p r o j e c t g o a l s , w h i c h a r e u n d e r s t o o d b e t t e r by t h e systems a n a l y s t s . On t h e o t h e r hand, systems a n a l y s t s must remember t h a t t h e i r methods can h a r d l y be used t o p r e s c r i b e a p p r o p r i a t e cou rses of a c t i o n i f t h e y a r e n o t based on a n adequate d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e way t h e system works . Data a v a i l a b i l i t y p l a c e s r e s t r i c t i o n s on t h e a n a l y t i c methods t h a t can b e used i n a s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n . Hence, t h e d a t a and t h e i r accuracy must be s u b j e c t t o open d i s c u s s i o n by a l l concerned. I n i t i a l l y , t hese d i s c u s s i o n s s h o u l d b e k e p t a t a s t r a t e g i c l e v e l , remember i ng above a1 1 t h a t

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e v a l u a t i o n o f d a t a needs i s a p r o c e s s i n i t s e l f , and s e v e r a l o f t h e q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g d a t a adequacy cannot be answered p r i o r t o c r i t i c a l a p p r a i s a l of t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e f i r s t model r u n s .

The advantages o f ma themat i ca l mode ls a r e r e c o g n i z e d i n many c o u n t r i e s a l l over t h e w o r l d . The mode ls , however, canno t be f u l l y e f f e c t i v e w i t h o u t adequate d a t a t o s u p p o r t them (model development, c a l i b r a t i o n , v a l i d a t i o n , and u l t i m a t e a p p l i c a t i o n ) . T h i s i s why t h e d a t a - g a t h e r i n g p rocess s h o u l d be r e l a t e d more d i r e c t l y t o t h e needs o f mode ls . Subsequent t o t h e accep tance o f t h e p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s and methodo logy by a l l e x p e r t s on t h e p l a n n i n g team, t h e d a t a c o n t r i b u t o r s must u n d e r s t a n d and a c c e p t t h a t t h e systems a n a l y s t ( t h e model b u i l d e r ) s e t s t h e d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s .

3.2 Data adequacy

V i r t u a l l y a l l h y d r o l o g i c and n o n h y d r o l o g i c d a t a can be c o n s i d e r e d t o be inadequate i n some r e s p e c t . The q u e s t i o n i s , how inadequa te i s i nadequa te , o r , a l t e r n a t i v e l y , how adequate i s adequate? (Wat t and W i l s o n , 1973) . To answer t h i s q u e s t i o n i t i s necessary t o d e f i n e t h e pu rpose f o r w h i c h t h e d a t a a r e t o be used and t h e consequenc ies o f v a r i ous degrees o f d a t a i m p e r f e c t i o n . I n o t h e r words, assessment o f d a t a s u f f i c i e n c y s h o u l d b e based n o t o n l y on p r o b a b i l i s t i c s t a t e m e n t s r e l a t e d t o s a m p l i n g and parameter u n c e r t a i n t y e r r o r s b u t a l s o on an e v a l u a t i o n o f how s e n s i t i v e a r e t h e key p r o j e c t pa ramete rs ( i n economic and o v e r a l l pe r fo rmance terms) t o p o s s i b l e changes i n t h e d a t a base accu racy and scope. F r o m a c o n c e p t u a l s t a n d p o i n t , t h e d a t a can be c o n s i d e r e d adequate when t h e m a r g i n a l c o s t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i m p r o v i n g t h e d a t a i s equa l t o t h e m a r g i n a l b e n e f i t s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o such improvement. As a p r a c t i c a l m a t t e r , however, i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h i s s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d concept i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t because o f u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f f u t u r e bene f i t s .

I t i s w o r t h n o t i n g t h a t adequacy o f d a t a i s a l s o a f u n c t i o n o f t h e methods used f o r p l a n n i n g and dec i s ion -mak ing . I f a p r o j e c t i s p lanned t o accommodate f u t u r e a d a p t a t i o n s t o r e v i s e d o b j e c t i v e s and new i n f o r m a t i o n , l a r g e r e r r o r s i n t h e e s t i m a t e s o f key p r o j e c t parameters may be t o l e r a t e d . I f no such accommodations a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e p l a n - a common approach by those who l i k e t o s o l v e prob lems once and f o r a l l - much s m a l l e r e r r o r s shou ld be a l l o w e d than i n t h e case o f f l e x i b l e , a d a p t i v e p l a n n i n g ( Y e v j e v i c h 1973) .

When t h e genera l c i r cums tances a r e such t h a t a p l a n i s needed, i t i s t h e r o l e o f t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p lanner t o d e v e l o p t h e b e s t p l a n p o s s i b l e f o r t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a . I t i s t r u e t h a t many p l a n s f o r wa te r resources p r o j e c t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , a r e p roposed a t t imes when t h e h y d r o l o g i c and n o n h y d r o l o g i c d a t a base i s f a r s m a l l e r t h a n what wou ld be d e s i r e d f o r an e f f e c t i v e a n a l y s i s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , w h i l e t h e p lanner may p r o p e r l y a d v i s e as t o t h e r i s k s i n v o l v e d i n p l a n n i n g w i t h inadequate d a t a , he w i l l r a r e l y be i n a p o s i t i o n t o suspend p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t i e s u n t i l more d e t a i l e d d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e . Q u i t e o f t e n i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o pos tpone a p r o j e c t because o f p o l i t i c a l p ressu res o r t h e e x i s t e n c e o f p rob lems r e q u i r i n g immediate a c t i o n . I n such s i t u a t i o n s i t i s always w o r t h c o n s i d e r i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s ' o f imp lement ing t h e p r o j e c t i n s tages , a1 though t h i s a lways i n c u r s a d d i t i o n a l c o s t , even i f s t a g i n g i s t e c h n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e (sometimes i t i s not ) . The o t h e r p o s s i b i 1 i t y i s t o d e s i g n a p r o j e c t i n such a way t h a t e v e n t u a l l o s s e s due t o t h e use o f i m p e r f e c t d a t a a r e s i m p l y m in im ized .

As a m a t t e r of f a c t , t h e i s s u e s d i scussed i n t h i s s e c t i o n a r e n o t o n l y the q u e s t i o n o f d a t a adequacy - i t i s a " w a i t a whi l e " syndrome i n a n t i c i p a t i o n t h a t u n c e r t a i n t y about some o f t h e c r u c i a l f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g p r o j e c t d e s i g n w i l l be reduced. But u s u a l l y w a i t i n g w i l l n o t improve t h i n g s and, w i t h t h e

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passage o f t i m e , new c l o u d s o f u n c e r t a i n t y emerge.

The case s t u d i e s appended t o t h i s book i n d i c a t e t h a t i n many p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s o n l y e x i s t i n g d a t a a r e used. Q u i t e o f t e n t h e y a r e s u b j e c t t o i n t e n s i v e p r o c e s s i n g t h a t has as i t s purpose a b e t t e r e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e r i s k s due t o a l l t y p e s o f u n c e r t a i n t i e s , i n c l u d i n g t h o s e due t o i m p e r f e c t i o n s i n t h e p r o j e c t d a t a base.

3.3 Data acquisition

As a l r e a d y ment ioned i n t h e f i r s t s e c t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r , t h e te rm d a t a a c q u i s i t i o n has d i f f e r e n t c o n n o t a t i o n s t h a t depend on t h e a c t u a l s i t u a t i o n concern ing d a t a a v a i l a b i l i t y . The methods o f f i e l d c o l l e c t i o n o f d a t a on t h e e lements o f t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l c y c l e and r e l a t e d f a c t o r s f a l l o u t s i d e t h e scope o f t h i s book. Severa l manuals, i n c l u d i n g those p u b l i s h e d by t h e Wor ld M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n (e.g., WHO 1972). a r e a v a i l a b l e on t h i s s u b j e c t . Moreover, i n most c o u n t r i e s c o l l e c t i o n o f f i e l d d a t a i s a r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f spec i a 1 i zed hydrometeorologica-1 s e r v i c e s , and t h e y s h o u l d be c o n s u l t e d i f t h e need f o r a d d i t i o n a l f i e l d d a t a a r i s e s . The a c q u i s i t i o n o f h y d r o l o g i c d a t a means, above a l l , t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e d a t a sou rces i nc 1 ud i ng i n s p e c t i o n and e v a l u a t i o n o f these d a t a as t o t h e i r s u i t a b i l i t y and s u f f i c i e n c y f o r s p e c i f i c p l a n n i n g e f f o r t .

A l though i t i s an a r b i t r a r y d i v i s i o n , h y d r o l o g i c da ta sources may be d i v i d e d i n t o u s u a l and unusua 1 ones. The u s u a l d a t a sources i n c l u d e h y d r o l o g i c a l and m e t e o r o l o g i c a l yearbooks, r e p o r t s by v a r i o u s t ypes o f exper imen ta l and r e s e a r c h s t a t i o n s , reco rds k e p t by r e g i o n a l water a u t h o r i t i e s , and t h e l i k e . I t shou ld be remembered t h a t many o r g a n i z a t i o n s a r e o f t e n a lmos t c o m p l e t e l y unaware o f da ta c o l l e c t e d by o t h e r s ; even governmental agenc ies o f t e n know v e r y l i t t l e about d a t a c o l l e c t e d by o t h e r governmental agenc ies and a lmost

n o t h i n g abou t d a t a c o m p i l e d by nongovernmental i n s t i t u t i o n s .

G e n e r a l l y i t i s a d v i s a b l e a l s o t o sea rch f o r unusua l d a t a sou rces , such as newspaper accoun ts , o l d e r r e s i d e n t s ' memories, t r e e r i n g s , g l a c i e r d e p o s i t s , e t c . For example, h i g h - w a t e r marks a l o n g r i v e r s may be u s e f u l i n d e l i n e a t i n g f l o o d e d a r e a s . Such marks, i f t a k e n c a r e f u l l y , may be used w i t h o t h e r d a t a t o compute peak d i s c h a r g e s o f t h e s t ream by i n d i r e c t methods (WMO 1974) .

C o l l e c t i o n o f h y d r o l o g i c d a t a shou ld n o t be l i m i t e d t o dynamic p rocesses such as s t r e a m f l o w , p r e c i p i t a t i o n , e v a p o t r a n s p i r a t i o n , groundwater f l o w , o r s o i l m o i s t u r e changes; s t a t i c p h y s i c a l b a s i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s h o u l d a l s o be t a k e n i n t o accoun t (e.g., c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o be used i n r a i n f a l l - r u n o f f mode ls ) . B a s i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e u s u a l l y grouped i n t o t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s : ( 1 ) t o p o g r a p h i c , (2) s o i l s and geo logy , and (3) l a n d cover and land-use. I n f o r m a t i o n on these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i s commonly a v a i l a b l e f rom t h e v a r i o u s t y p e s of maps ( t o p o g r a p h i c , s o i l , l and c o v e r , e t c . ) t h a t a r e a v a i l a b l e t h r o u g h a p p r o p r i a t e governmental agenc ies . When no s u i t a b l e maps e x i s t f o r an area, i t i s recommended t o check whether some r e m o t e l y sensed d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e . These d a t a may i n c l u d e c o n v e n t i o n a l l a r g e - s c a l e b l a c k - a n d - w h i t e a e r i a l pho tog raphs , h i g h - a l t i t u d e c o l o r - i n f r a r e d

L a n s a t photographs , and m u l t i s p e c t r a l imagery. Severa 1 manuals a r e a v a i l a b l e t o a s s i s t i n a c q u i r i n g d i f f e r e n t i n f o r m a t i o n from r e m o t e l y sensed d a t e (e.g., Avery 1977) -

A 1 though c o l l e c t i o n o f h y d r o l o g i c d a t a p r e s e n t s many prob lems, a c q u i s i t i o n o f w a t e r - u s e d a t a i s u s u a l l y a much more complex t a s k . Problems stemming from t h e s c a r c i t y o f wa te r -use d a t a a r e ser i ous, e s p e c i a l l y a t t h e i n d i v i d u a l a c t i v i t y l e v e l (a fa rm, i n d u s t r i a l e n t e r p r i s e , or h o u s e h o l d ) . As t h i n g s now s t a n d , i t i s w i d e l y i f n o t u n i v e r s a l l y t r u e t h a t t h e s e d a t a , i f t h e y e x i s t a t

a l l , can be c o l l e c t e d o n l y f rom t h e w a t e r - u s e r s themse lves .

As p o i n t e d o u t by K i n d l e r and Russe l 1 (19841, wa te r -use d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s v a r y a c c o r d i n g t o t h e approach t a k e n toward r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f wa te r use i n t h e p l a n n i n g e f f o r t . The re a r e two b r o a d approaches used. The f i r s t one r e q u i r e s d a t a on a s e t o f s e v e r a l i n p u t s t o each wa te r -use a c t i v i t y ( i n c u d i n g t h e water i t s e l f ) , each a c t i v i t y ' s a s s o c i a t e d p r i c e s and c o s t s , and a s e t o f t o t a l o u t p u t s , i n c l u d i n g o u t p u t s o f p o l l u t i o n , w i t h t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d p r i c e s and c o s t s . Such d a t a can o n l y come f rom r e p e a t e d o b s e r v a t i o n o f t h e same wa te r -use r o v e r t i m e (say, mon th l y t o t a l s over s e v e r a l yea rs ) o r s imu l taneous o b s e r v a t i o n o f many u s e r s o f t h e same s o r t a t t h e same t i m e (say 50 o r so u s e r s ) . For s e l f - e v i d e n t reasons t h e f i r s t sou rce i s known as a t i m e s e r i e s , t h e second as a c r o s s s e c t i o n . Under c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s and u s i n g c o r r e c t t echn iques , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o pool t h e t i m e s e r i e s and c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l d a t a , S O t h a t s e v e r a l i nadequa te d a t a s e t s may be combined i n t o one w i t h enough s i z e and v a r i a t i o n t o be h e l p f u l (see, f o r example, Johns ton 1972). But, under a l l c i r cums tances , extreme c a r e must be e x e r c i s e d i n t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e a v a i l a b l e s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y t h e p r i c e - q u a n t i t y d a t a (see K i n d l e r and R u s s e l l 1984 f o r more d e t a i l ) .

The second approach i s d e t e r m i n e d by t h e p rocess fo r wh ich t h e w a t e r i s used. I t r e q u i r e s d a t a on what i s g o i n g on w i t h i n and among t h e many u n i t p rocesses o f a s i n g l e wa te r -use a c t i v i t y . T h i s approach amounts t o a summation o f a l l i n d i v i d u a l wa te r demands w h i c h can p roduce a l a r g e number o f a l t e r n a t i v e a c t i v i t y des igns . These d e s i g n s i n tu rn can be used t o d e f i n e wa te r -use r e l a t i o n s and u n i t w a t e r - u s e c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s such as s t e e l r o l l i n g , paper p r o d u c t i o n , househo ld water use , and t h e l i k e .

Water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g needs b o t h h y d r o l o g i c and n o n h y d r o l o g i c

(among them, water -use) d a t a . I t s h o u l d be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e s e two b r o a d da ta s e t s s h o u l d be m u t u a l l y c o n s i s t e n t i f t hey a r e used i n t h e same model. Spending u n j u s t i f i e d t i m e and r e s o u r c e s , f o r i n s t a n c e , on t h e r e f i n e m e n t and improvement o f t h e h y d r o l o g i c d a t a base a t t h e expense o f t h e dep th and scope o f o t h e r n o n h y d r o l o g i c a l d a t a s h o u l d a lways be avo ided . I n o t h e r words, do n o t t r y t o improve one s e t o f d a t a i f ano the r s e t o f equa l impor tance t o t h e model, f o r whatever reasons , i s bad.

One o f t h e common prob lems w h i c h make d a t a a c q u i s i t i o n d i f f i c u l t i s t h a t h y d r o l o g i c d a t a a r e always c o l l e c t e d w i t h i n t h e wa te r shed boundar ies , w h i l e n o n h y d r o l o g i c d a t a u s u a l l y r e f e r t o d i f f e r e n t s p a t i a l u n i t s t h a t f o l l o w t h e p o l i t i c a l and econom i c s u b d i v i s i o n s of t h e a rea under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . Ad jus tments must be made t o make a l l ' p r o j e c t d a t a c o m p a t i b l e i n t i m e and space.

3.4 Data quality control

I n t h i s c h a p t e r , q u a l i t y c o n t r o l connotes t h e s t e p s t h a t s h o u l d be t a k e n t o ensu re t h a t d a t a o f good q u a l i t y a r e used i n t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f a p l a n . These s t e p s u s u a l l y i n c l u d e p r e l i m i n a r y c h e c k i n g o f d a t a and d e t e c t i o n o f e r r o r s by i n t e r n a l c o n s i s t e n c y checks. The p r e l i m i n a r y check ing must ensu re t h e o v e r a l l c o r r e c t n e s s o f i n d i c a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n ; s i m p l e g e o g r a p h i c a l and a r i t h m e t i c a l checks shou ld be a p p l i e d t o see i f t h e d a t a p r o v i d e an a p p r o p r i a t e l ong - te rm p i c t u r e o f p a s t even ts c o n c e r n i n g b o t h wa te r a v a i l a b i l i t y and wa te r use i n t h e r e g i o n under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . I n t h i s p rocess , d a t a gaps wh ich may a f f e c t outcomes o f t h e p l a n s h o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d , and t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f f i l l i n g such gaps b y e s t i m a t i o n o r i n t e r p o l a t i o n shou ld be ana lyzed . I t shou ld b e no ted t h a t f r e q u e n t l y such a n a l y s i s i s t o o complex t o be done manua l l y , and n o t much p r e l i m i n a r y check ing can be done b e f o r e t h e d a t a a r e t r a n s f e r r e d i n t o t h e computer and p repared f o r machine p r o c e s s i n g .

Data i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s a r e most o f t e n due t o measurement e r r o r s o r measurement b e i n g c r e d i t e d t o t h e wrong t i m e , b u t c a u t i o n i s u rged i n making d a t a ad jus tmen ts t o o e a s i l y w i t h o u t s o l i d r e f l e c t i o n as t o t h e p o s s i b l e sources o f e r r o r .

Data qua l i t y c o n t r o l s h o u l d a l s o i nc 1 ude check i ng how r e p r e s e n t a t i v e a r e t h e d a t a f o r t h e c u r r e n t h y d r o l o g i c a l c o n d i t i o n s i n a g i v e n b a s i n. T h i s p e r t a i n s e s p e c i a l l y t o s t r e a m f l o w s e r i e s i n a b a s i n s u b j e c t t o l a r g e - s c a l e

d e f o r e s t a t i o n o r s t r i p m i n i n g . A l though r e l a t i v e - l y l ong r e c o r d s may be a v a i l a b l e , t h e y can no l onger be c o n s i d e r e d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e u n l e s s man-made changes i n the b a s i n have been appropr i a t e 1 y t a k e n i n t o account , wh ich i s u s u a l l y a v e r y d i f f i c u l t t a s k .

man-made changes, e.g., by

Techniques f o r q u a l i t y c o n t r o l o f d a t a d i f f e r fo r v a r i o u s d a t a t ypes . For example, t h e q u a l i t y of s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d s f o r a g i v e n s t ream may be checked by compar ing them w i t h c o n c u r r e n t r e c o r d s f o r nearby s t reams and w i t h c o n c u r r e n t l y reco rded o t h e r h y d r o l o g i c parameters , such as p r e c i p i t a t i o n and tempera tu re (WMO 1974). The r o u t i n g of f l o o d hydrographs i s o f t e n used f o r check ing d i s c h a r g e s r e c o r d e d a t d p r o f i l e s a l o n g t h e same Groundwater l e v e l f l u c t u a t a l s o b e used i n q u a l i t y con p r e c i p i t a t i o n and s t r e a m f l o w

The d a t a accu racy r e q u s h o u l d b e c o n s i s t e n t w

f l o o d f f e r e n t s t ream. ons may r o l of d a t a .

r emen t s t h t h e

q u a l i t y and samp l ing adequacy o f t h e d a t a used and w i t h t h e degree o f accu racy r e q u i r e d by t h e s p e c i f i c a n a l y s i s . I n many i n s t a n c e s , g r a p h i c a l and r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e computa t i ona 1 methods a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y a c c u r a t e f o r t h e d a t a and purposes i n v o l v e d .

3.5 Data processing and screening

I n many cases i t i s necessary t o p rocess c o l l e c t e d d a t a i n t o a f o r m c o m p a t i b l e w i t h requ i remen ts o f

t h e methods adop ted f o r p r e p a r a t i o n o f a p l a n . Data p r o c e s s i n g u s u a l l y i n c l u d e s s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s , such as c o m p u t a t i o n o f means, s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s , c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s , l a g t imes , pa ramete rs o f f r equency d i s t r i b u t i o n s , d u r a t i o n s , and o t h e r s t a t i s t i c a l pa ramete rs d e s c r i b i n g b o t h t h e tempora l and s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e p rocesses t h a t d e t e r m i n e w a t e r a v a i l a b i l i t y and wa te r use i n a g i v e n r e g i o n . Severa l o f t h e s e s t a t i s t i c s a r e used f o r f i l l i n g d a t a gaps b y r e g r e s s i o n and c o r r e l a t i o n methods. Data p r o c e s s i n g a l s o o f t e n i n c l u d e s c o n v e r s i o n o f d a t a i n t o c o m p a t i b l e t i m e sca 1 es and c o n s i s t e n t measurement u n i t s (e.g., c o n v e r s i o n o f mean f l o w i n t e n s i t i e s i n t o f l o w volumes o v e r a p e r i o d o f t ime) .

One o f t h e purposes o f s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a p r o c e s s i n g i s s c r e e n i n g o f d a t a t o o b t a i n homogeneity among d a t a o f v a r i o u s k i n d s . Sc reen ing g e n e r a l l y has t h r e e purposes . One purpose i s t o reduce t h e d a t a t o t h e s t a n d a r d base p e r i o d of r e c o r d . T h i s i s necessa ry because a f r e q u e n t p rob lem i n g e n e r a l i z a t i o n o f h y d r o l o g i c and n o n h y d r o l o g i c d a t a stems f r o m t h e f a c t t h a t t h e y r e f e r t o ' d i f f e r e n t p e r i o d s o f r e c o r d . A t tempts t o compare r e c o r d s w i t h o u t mak ing a p p r o p r i a t e a d j u s t m e n t s w i l l m i x v a r i a t i o n i n space w i t h v a r i a t i o n i n t i m e . The second purpose i s t o e l i m i n a t e o r reduce t h e e f f e c t s o f i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s i n d a t a r e c o r d s . S imp le examples o f such s c r e e n i n g p rocedures a r e a double-mass c u r v e a n a l y s i s (WMO 1974) a p p l i e d t o d e t e c t change of exposure a t a p r e c i p i t a t i o n s t a t i o n and a t i m e s e r i e s a n a l y s i s used t o e v a l u a t e how a c c u r a t e l y s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d s r e p r e s e n t t h e n a t u r a l r u n o f f o f a ca tchment a rea . The t h i r d pu rpose i s d a t a r e c o n c i l i a t i o n , s i n c e d a t a f r o m d i f f e r e n t sou rces r e l a t i n g t o t h e same v a r i a b l e may n o t b e t h e same o r even c o m p a t i b l e . T h e r e f o r e , one must r e c o n c i l e t h e d i f f e r e n c e s and come t o an e x p l i c i t d e c i s i o n about what t o u s e as p l a n n i n g d a t a . Examples i n c l u d e d i f f e r e n c e s among h y d r o l o g i c d a t a c o l l e c t e d

c o n c u r r e n t l y b y d i f f e r e n t h y d r o l o g i c agenc ies , p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s made by a p p l i c a t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t methods or a c c o r d i n g t o d i f f e r e n t s p a t i a l u n i t s , o r m o n t h l y d a t a t h a t do n o t add up t o same t o t a l as d a t a f r o m a d i f f e r e n t sou rce t h a t g i v e s t h e d a t a as an annua l b a s i s .

The d a t a , p r o c e s s i n g and s c r e e n i ng needs a r e h i g h l y s i t u a t i o n - d e p e n d e n t , and t h e l e v e l o f e f f o r t i s g r e a t l y i n f l u e n c e d by whether o r n o t a p p r o p r i a t e computer f a c i l i t i e s a r e a v a i l a b l e .

3.6 Data information systems

Data systems v a r y c o n s i d e r a b l y , depend ing on t h e c h a r a c t e r and scope o f t h e s p e c i f i c p l a n n i n g e f f o r t . For l ong - range p l a n n i n g , s teady accumu la t i on , a n a l y s i s , and d i s p l a y o f d a t a over p e r i o d s o f hou rs , days, o r months i s s u f f i c i e n t , w h i l e o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n n i n g r e q u i r e s more o r 1 ess immediate r e c e i p t , p r o c e s s i n g , and r e t r a n s m i t t a l i n f o r m a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , wh s e r v i n g one f u n c t i o n a l need w e l l , d a t a system does n o t necessar s e r v e a n o t h e r .

What t y p e o f d a t a i n f o r m a t sys tem i s a d v i s a b l e f o r a g i v e n p depends v e r y much on t h e l e v e l

o f l e a

1 Y

on an o f

e f f o r t , access t o compu t e r i n s t a l l a t i o n s , a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a t a maagement e x p e r t s , e t c . A p l a n - s p e c i f i c consc iousness s h o u l d e x i s t a t a l l t i m e s i n d e v e l o p i n g a u s a b l e d a t a i n f o r m a t i o n sys tem t h a t w i l l s u i t most a d e q u a t e l y t h e needs o f t h e wa te r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n e r i n t h e s p e c i f i c c o n t e x t . Sometimes t h e p l a n i n v o l v e s a v e r y l a r g e amount o f d a t a , and t h e t a s k o f d a t a h a n d l i n g , c o m p i l i n g a n a l y t i c a l r e s u l t s , and c o n v e r t i n g them t o f i t p l a n r e q u i r e m e n t s canno t be coped w i t h by c o n v e n t i o n a l methods. E v a l u a t i o n o f t h e d a t a c o l l e c t e d may a l s o b e a p r o b 1 em - dea l i ng w i t h c o n v e n t i o n a l l y t a b u l a t e d v a l u e s i n h i g h numbers means a lways an u n j u s t i f i e d e x p e n d i t u r e i n terms o f c o s t , accu racy , and t i m e . I n such cases , t h e d a t a can o n l y be hand led w i t h t h e a i d o f computer d a t a

-38-

process ing , and t h e need f o r a p l a n - s p e c i f i c d a t a base o r da ta -base system may even a r i s e .

The te rm d a t a base was i n t r o d u c e d i n t o t h e t h e o r y and p r a c t i c e o f d a t a management b y t h e end o f t h e 60s . A d a t a base connotes a c o l l e c t i o n o f v a r i o u s t ypes o f d a t a f S l e s , i n c l u d i n g r e l a t i o n s among t h e s e f i l e s , d a t a aggregates , and d a t a i t ems . But, as happens o f t e n t o a f a s h i o n a b l e te rm, many o r g a n i z a t i o n s s t a r t e d c a l l i n g t h e i r f i l e s d a t a bases, chang ing o n l y t h e name w i t h o u t g i v i n g n o t i c e t o such fundamental da ta-base p r o p e r t i e s as e x c l u s i o n o f d a t a redundancy, p r o v i s i o n f o r d a t a independence and p r o t e c t i o n , p r e c i s e d e f i n i t i o n o f mutual r e l a t i o n s among d i f f e r e n t d a t a , and p r o v i s i o n of r e a l - t i m e access t o s t o r e d d a t a . The impor tance o f t h e s e p r o p e r t i e s has grown c o n s i d e r a b l y w i t h t h e development o f b e t t e r s o f t w a r e for d a t a p r o c e s s i n g and management.

Data-base systems a r e sometimes c a l l e d d a t a banks; t h e y i n c l u d e s e v e r a l d a t a bases s t o r e d on p e r i p h e r a l s t o r a g e d e v i c e s and c o l l e c t i o n s o f computer programs for such t y p i c a l d a t a p r o c e s s i n g o p e r a t i o n s as d a t a sea rch , r e t r i e v a l , u p d a t i n g , i n p u t , and

a l t e r n a t i v e l y ) , t h e system may i n c l u d e o n - l i n e u s e r s who i n t e r a c t w i t h d a t a bases from remote t e r m i n a l s .

d e l e t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n (0 r

3.7 References

Andr e j anov, V . G . 1975. M e t e o r o l o g i c a l and H y d r o l o g i c a l Data Requ i red i n P l a n n i n g t h e Development o f Water Resources. O p e r a t i o n a l Hydro logy R e p o r t No.5, WMO No. 419, WMO, Geneva.

Avery, E . 1977. I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f Aer i a1 Photographs , 3 r d ed.

M i n n e a p o l i s . Burgess P u b l i s h i n g Co.,

Johnston, J . 1972 . Economet r ic Methods. McGraw-Hi l l , New York .

K i n d l e r , J., and C . S . R u s s e l l , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h B.T. Bower, I . Gouevsky, D.R. Maidment, and R.W.T. Sewel 1 (eds.) . 1984. Mode 1 i ng Water Demands. Academic p ress , London.

Unesco/WMO. 1981. Water Resources Assessment A c t i v i t i e s , Handbook f o r N a t i o n a l E v a l u a t i o n ( D r a f t ) , P a r i s .

U.S. OTA - U . S . O f f i c e o f Technology Assessment. 1982. Use o f Models f o r Water Resources Management, P l a n n i n g and P o l i c y . OTA, Washington, D.C .

Wat t , W . E . , and K.C . W i l son . 1973. An economic approach f o r eva 1 u a t i ng t h e adequacy o f h y d r o l o g i c d a t a . I n Proceed ings o f t h e Second I n t e r n a t i o n a l Sympos i um i n Hydro logy , September 1972. Water Resources P u b l i c a t i o n s , F o r t Col 1 i n s , Co lorado.

WHO - Wor I d M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n , 1972. Casebook on H y d r o l o g i c a l Network D e s i g n P r a c t i c e , WHO No. 324. WHO, Geneva.

WHO - Wor I d M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n . 1974. Guide ' to H y d r o l o g i c a l P r a c t i c e s , 3 r d ed. , WHO No. 168. WHO, Geneva.

Y e v j e v i c h , V . 1973 Open i ng remarks. I n D e c i s i o n s w i t h Inadequate H y d r o l o g i c Data . Proceed ings o f t h e Second I n t e r n a t i o n a l Sympos i u m i n

Water Resources P u b l i c a t i o n s , F o r t C o l l i n s , Co lorado.

H y d r o l o g y , S ep t embe r 1972.

4. Formulation and screening o f project alternatives

T h i s chap te r i s concerned w i t h t h e f o r m u l a t i o n and s c r e e n i n g o f p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s : these u s u a l l y c o n s t i t u t e t h e t h i r d s tage i n t h e water resources p l a n n i n g p rocess . T h i s s t a g e i nc 1 udes t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s , t h e a c t u a l g e n e r a t i o n o f p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s , c h e c k i n g t h a t t hese a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s a r e c o m p a t i b l e w i t h o t h e r p l a n s , c h e c k i n g t h a t t h e models used a r e c a l i b r a t e d and c r e d i b l e , and u s i n g h i e r a r c h i c a l and m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s t o s c r e e n t h e v a r i o u s p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s . T h i s s tage leads t o t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f s e l e c t e d a l t e r n a t i v e p r o j e c t s and t o t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e i r r e 1 a t i ve advantages and d isadvantages .

4.1 Overview of the evaluation of alternatives stage

The p l a n n i n g and management o f water r e s o u r c e s and w a t e r - r e l a t e d l and r e s o u r c e s i s b o t h an a r t and a sc ience, and i t i n v o l v e s t h e u tmost u t i l i z a t i o n o f many d i s c i p l i n e s . I n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess , f o r e c a s t s and p r e d i c t i o n s must b e made under r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y . I n a d d i t i o n , dec is ion-makers must a n a l y z e t h e v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s t h a t o f t e n r e f l e c t c o n f l i c t i n g economic, s o c i e t a l , e n v i r o n m e n t a l , and p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s . A water r e s o u r c e s p l a n has a v i a b l e chance o f b e i n g implemented o n l y i f i t addresses i t s e l f t o t h e m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s and g o a l s o f t h e r e g i o n concerned. W i th e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g pub1 i c awareness o f and p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g process (as ev idenced by t h e many c i t i z e n s ' a d v i s o r y boards , a c t i v e p u b l i c hea r ings , e t c . ) , t h e p l a n n i n g task ha,s become even h a r d e r . Consequent ly , methods and approaches f rom system a n a l y s i s , p a r t i c u l a r l y those t h a t a r e des igned t o h e l p dec is ion-makers choose among

a l t e r n a t i v e s , have been i n c r e a s i n g l y used i n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g and management.

When Stage 1, p l a n i n i t i a t i o n and p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g , and Stage 2 , d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and p r o c e s s i n g , have been completed, a p l a n i s ready f o r S tage 3, w h i c h encompasses t h e f o r m u l a t i o n and s c r e e n i n g o f p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n t h i s s t a g e , s e v e r a l s t e p s must be f o l l o w e d . These i n c l u d e

a) t h e v e r b a l a r t i c u l a t i o n and q u a n t i f i c a t i o n o f

o b j e c t i ves

c o n s t r a i n t s - - h y d r o l o g i c a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l , f i n a n c i a l , e t c .

m e a s u r e s - - s t r u c t u r a l and n o n s t r u c t u r a l

t h e sys tem s ( r e g i o n s) components (e.g. s u b b a s i n s and subareas) .

t h e s y s t e m ' s p r o j e c t e d demands :

- m u n i c i p a l and/or domest ic - i n d u s t r i a l

- agr i c u l t u r a l - f i s h and/or w i l d l i f e

hab i t a t

t h e s y s t e m ' s p r o j e c t e d supp ly c a p a b i l i t i e s :

- groundwater - s u r f a c e water - i n t e r b a s i n water

t r a n s f e r - r e c l a i m e d water - e t c .

w a t e r q u a l i t y problems and/ o r p o t e n t i a l c o n t a m i n a t i o n s

* f l o o d problems and/or needs f o r f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n

* r e c r e a t i o n

* h yd r o-power

J( e t c .

b) concept a n a l y s i s based on t h e f o l l o w i n g s t e p s :

* g e n e r a t i o n o f severa 1 a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s w i t h P a r e t o o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s ( i . e . , a s o l u t i o n where one

o b j e c t i v e can be i mproved o n l y a t t h e expense o f degrad i ng another o b j e c t i ve) and t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e t r a d e - o f f s

* e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s

J: conduct o f r i s k - b e n e f i t ana 1 yses

* conduct o f impact a n a l y s e s on t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s

When Stage 3 - - t h e f o r m u l a t i o n and s c r e e n i n g o f a l t e r n a t i v e s - - h a s been completed, i t must be d e c i d e d i f more d a t a a r e needed. I f p o s s i b l e , d e c i s i o n s on s p e c i f i c models shou ld be pos tponed u n t i l any needed a d d i t i o n a l d a t a a r e a c q u i r e d o r u n t i l a d a t a base becomes e

a v a i l a b l e .

When p l a n a l t e r n a t i v e s s u i t a b l e f o r p o t e n t i a l i m p l e m e n t a t i o n have been s e l e c t e d , t h i s marks t h e end o f t h e p r e f e a s i b i l i t y p a r t o f t h e s t u d y . Toward t h e end o f Stage 3, t h e p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s has t o t a k e o v e r . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e f o l l o w i n g s t e p s shou ld be taken:

* conduct o f pub1 i c h e a r i n g s , as a p p r o p r i a t e , t o g e n e r a t e s u p p o r t f o r t h e p l a n by t h e p u b l i c and o t h e r i m p o r t a n t c o n s t i tuenc i es

J( e v a l u a t i o n o f comments and s u g g e s t i o n s made by t h e p u b l i c and t h e a g e n c i e s

conduct o f m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s

d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e r e s u l t s w i t h dec is ion-makers a t t h e v a r i ous 1 eve 1 s, as a p p r o p r i a t e

e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s ' p r e f e r e n c e s , w i t h a p p r o p r i a t e response by mak i ng modi f i c a t i o n (s) t o t h e p l a n

The f i n a l r e s u l t p rocess i s t h e p o l i t i c a l c o n t i n u e o r d i s c o n t i n u e a c t i v i t y . I f t h e dec proceed,

J(

*

*

*

t h e n e x t s t e p s

o f t h i s d e c i s i o n t o he p l a n n i n g s i o n i s t o nc 1 ude

a u t h o r i z a t i o n t o comple te t h e p l a n n i n g process

a p p r o p r i a t i o n o f f unds ( c o u l d be t h e same as t h e a u t h o r i z a t i o n , i n some c o u n t r i es)

d e s i g n a t i o n o f an agency (o r agenc i es) t o comp 1 e t e t h e p 1 ann i ng process

f o r m a t i o n o f a r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g e n t i t y (as appropr i a te )

4.2 Classification of alternatives

I n t h e p l a n n i n g process, a l l p l aus i b 1 e a 1 t e r n a t i ves shou ld be c o n s i d e r e d - - f e a s i b l e and n o n f e a s i b l e , s t r u c t u r a 1 and n o n s t r u c t u r a l , water and "non-water ." A I though some may v i e w t h e s tudy o f nonfeas i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s as w a s t e f u l , i m p o r t a n t and v a l u a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n m i g h t be ga ined f rom such e f f o r t : f o r example, a s e n s i b l e measure o r p l a n t h a t happens t o be a t t h e t i m e p o l i t i c a l l y o r i n s t i t u t i o n a l l y i n f e a s i b l e can shed l i g h t on t h e c o s t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n a l impediments and m i g h t i n d i c a t e s p e c i f i c ways f o r remov ing o r a l l e v i a t i n g such o b s t a c l e s . Non-wa t e r a l t e r n a t i v e s o f t e n c o n s t i t u t e an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f what

p r o j e c t

-43-

i s commonly known as a wa te r a l t e r n a t i v e package: f o r example, l and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n m i g h t be c o n s i d e r e d as an a l t e r n a t i v e t o n a v i g a t i o n . T e c h n i c a l c o n s t r a i n t s may a l s o i n d i c a t e t h e s e l e c t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s : f o r example, a dam s i t e m i g h t have an e x c e l l e n t r o c k f o u n d a t i o n b u t wou ld r e q u i r e ma jo r work i n r e l o c a t i n g peop le o r r e r o u t i ng t r a n s p o r t a t i o n 1 i nes, w h i l e ano the r l o c a t i o n m i g h t r e q u i r e e x t e n s i v e f o u n d a t i o n work.

Fur thermore , i t must be r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e r e a r e o f t e n d i f f e r e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s t o accomp l i sh t h e same o b j e c t i v e . For example, f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n can be ach ieved by r e t e n t i o n s t r u c t u r e s , by f l o o d levees , o r by z o n i n g t o p r e v e n t s e t t l e m e n t s i n f l o o d - p r o n e areas . On t h e o t h e r hand, a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r water s u p p l y i n c l u d e t h e use o f ground or s u r f a c e water or b o t h ( c o n j u n c t i v e u s e ) . Also, s t o r a g e f o r a wa te r supp ly may p o s s i b l y be p r o v i d e d e i t h e r b e h i n d a l a r g e dam i n t h e main r i v e r o r b e h i n d many s m a l l e r dams l o c a t e d i n t h e t r i b u t a r i e s . Hydro-power g e n e r a t i o n shou ld b e c o n s i d e r e d w i t h i n a b roader economic s c a l e , w i t h n u c l e a r o r f o s s i l - f i r e g e n e r a t i n g u n i t s c o n s i d e r e d as p a r t o f t h e system. Such c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t h e use of pumped where excess low-consumption p e r pump w a t e r i n t o a a t h i g h e l e v a t i o n , r e l e a s e d th rough peak-demand hours .

A l though a c

commonly l e a d t o s t o r a g e p l a n t s , energy du r i ng ods i s used t o emporary s t o r a g e rom wh ich i t i s

t u r b i n e s a t

a s s i f i c a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s can be h e l p f u l f o r pedagog ica l purposes, t h e p l a n n e r shou ld be c a r e f u l t o a v o i d s i m p l i s t i c d i c h o t o m i e s i n c 1 ass i f y i ng a l t e r n a t i v e s - - f o r i ns tance , water vs . non-wa t e r a1 t e r n a t i v e s - - o r s i m i l a r s impleminded c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o f water i s s u e s , such as ground vs . s u r f a c e wa te r , wa te r q u a n t i t y vs . q u a l i t y , wa te r supp ly vs . demand, e t c . The success fu l o p e r a t i o n , ma in tenance, and management o f any water resources system s h o u l d u t l i m a t e l y r ranscend t h e b a r r i e r s

c r e a t e d by these a r t i f i c i a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s and make use o f t h e a t t r i b u t e s o f a l l p l a n components and t h e s y s t e m ' s p o t e n t i a l s .

4.3 Generation of alternatives

D u r i n g Stage 3 o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s - - t h e f o r m u l a t i o n and s c r e e n i ng o f p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s - - s e v e r a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s e x i s t i n te rms o f g e n e r a t i o n and s c r e e n i n g o f a l t e r n a t i v e s . These i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g .

( i ) A sma l l number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s l eads t o e l i m i n a t i o n o f t h e s c r e e n i n g s t e p .

( i i ) A l a r g e number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s necess i t a t e s t h e use o f ma themat i ca l models ( t h i s i s o f t e n t h e case f o r long- range and r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g ) .

( i i i ) A l a r g e number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s r e q u i r e s t h e use o f h i e r a r c h i c a l s c r e e n i n g i n s tages , w i t h an i n c r e a s i n g r i g i d i t y o f s e l e c t i o n and/or e x c l u s i o n c r i t e r i a b e i n g adopted as t h e s c r e e n i n g p r o c e s s proceeds. T h i s p r o c e d u r e a l s o r e q u i r e s t h a t p l a n n i n g p h i l o s o p h i e s be agreed upon b y a l l concerned p a r t i e s .

I t s h o u l d be c l e a r l y n o t e d t h a t S tage 3 and Stage 4 (development o f f i n a l s t u d y r e s u l t s ) a r e n o t m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e , and o f t e n some o v e r l a p p i n g o c c u r s . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e d i s c u s s i o n and arguments t h a t t a k e p l a c e i n S tage 3 s h o u l d be r e c o r d e d so t h a t a c t i v i t i e s a t S tage 4 can be a p p r o p r i a t e y gu ided . T h i s i s even more c r i t i c a l i f a new team works on Stage 4 .

The p l a n n e r who i s engaged i n t h e p rocess o f g e n e r a t i n g a 1 t e r n a t i v e p r o j e c t s may d i f f e r e n t i a t e between cases w i t h a r e l a t i v e l y modest number o f d i s c r e t e a l t e r n a t i v e s and t h o s e w i t h a v e r y 1 a r g e ( i n f i n i t e and c o n t i nuous) number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n t h e fo rmer case, t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e p r i m a r i l y genera ted d i r e c t l y t h r o u g h b r a i n s t o r m i n g and by p e r t u r b a t i o n o f p r e v i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n t h e

l a t t e r - - t h e c o n t i n u o u s case - - the use o f models i s a lmos t i m p e r a t i v e , and t h e r o l e o f t h e a n a l y s t and/or t h e p l a n n e r and t h e dec i s ion -maker i s t o d e c i d e w h i c h o f t h e s y s t e m ' s o b j e c t i v e s s h o u l d be k e p t as such and w h i c h s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d a s c o n s t r a i n t s .

The use o f ma themat i ca l models i n t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e p:ans i s most i m p o r t a n t and v a l u a b l e when t r a d e - o f f s a r e cons ide red . The h i e r a r c h i c a l approach, w h i c h a l l o w s t h e a g g r e g a t i o n o f s e v e r a l models i n t o an o v e r a l l model, can be v e r y h e l p f u l he re . For example, l i n e a r programming a l l o c a t i o n models can be i n t e g r a t e d w i t h dynamic programming c a p a c i t y - - e x p a n s i o n models, and f u r t h e r i n t e g r a t i o n can t a k e p l a c e w i t h s t r e a m f l o w s i m u l a t i o n models, e t c . - - a l l w i t h i n a h i e r a r c h i c a l m u l t i o b j e c t i v e f ramework.

4.4 M o d e l c red ib i l i t y and m o d e l cal ibrat ion

Model c r e d i b i l i t y and model c a l i b r a t i o n i m p l y two d i f f e r e n t b u t r e l a t e d i ssues . The c r e d i b i l i t y o f a model r e f e r s t o t h e acceptance o f t h e model, w h i l e model c a l i b r a t i o n connotes e s t i m a t i o n o f model parameters .

Models a lways r e p r e s e n t an a b s t r a c t i o n o f t h o s e f e a t u r e s o f t h e r e a l w o r l d t h a t a r e c o n s i d e r e d r e l e v a n t b y t h e model b u i l d e r . They t h e r e f o r e a r e o n l y as good as t h e p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e i r c r e a t o r s . Because o f t h i s , t h e y a r e , and s h o u l d be, o n l y one p a r t o f t h e d e c i s i o n p rocess . The acceptance o f a l l o r p a r t o f t h e model c o n c l u s i o n s must be l e f t t o t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e r e s p o n s i b l e e n g i n e e r . The eng ineer s h o u l d make a l l e f f o r t s t o v a l i d a t e o r v e r i f y t h e models. Many d i f f e r e n t approaches and p h i l o s o p h i e s e x i s t (e.g., how t o v e r i f y models employed f o r l ong - te rm p r e d i c t i o n f o r f u t u r e - u s e l e v e l s ) .

The re i s a l s o t h e q u e s t i o n o f o v e r a l l model acceptance--model c r e d i b i l i t y i n t h e eyes o f t h e dec i s ion -makers , t h e i r s t a f f , t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c , e t c . The p rob lem o f

model c r e d i b i l i t y needs t o be d e a l t w i t h i n a l l s tages o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess . P robab ly t h e b e s t way i s t o have an open d i s c u s s i o n about t h e model t o be used b o t h w i t h t h e dec i s ion -makers and w i t h t h e a f f e c t e d p a r t i e s i n t h e e a r l y s tages o f model s e l e c t i o n .

Acco rd ing t o t h e OTA s t u d y ( U . S . OTA 19821, t h e l a c k o f model c r e d i b i l i t y c o n s t . i t u t e s one o f t h e most common reasons f o r t h e l a c k o f use o f models by dec i s ion -makers and o t h e r p o l i c y a n a l y s t s .

There a r e many elements t h a t c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e c r e d i b i l i t y l e v e l o f any i n d i v i d u a l model (see Haimes 19811, i n c l u d i n g ( i ) t h e scope o f t h e model, ( i i ) i t s s t r u c t u r e , ( i i i ) i t s m o d u l a r i t y aspec ts , ( i v ) t h e number o f o b j e c t i v e s t h a t i t e v a l u a t e s , (v) t h e a c c e p t a b i 1 i t y and robus tness o f t h e assumptions made ( b o t h i m p l i c i t l y and e x p l i c i t l y ) , ( v i ) t h e q u a l i t y o f i t s d a t a base, ( v i i ) t h e s o p h i s t i c a t i o n o f t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n techn iques used, (v i i i ) t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e computers used, ( i x ) t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y / m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y s e t u p o f t h e group t h a t deve loped t h e model, (x) t h e l e v e l o f model v a l i d a t i o n , ( x i ) t h e m o d e l ' s v e r i f i c a t i o n and t e s t i n g , and ( x i i ) t h e l e v e l o f t h e r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y e lements .

I n s h o r t , t h e needs and impor tance o f model c r e d i b i l i t y i n a1 1 aspec ts and phases o f t h e p 1 ann i ng process cannot be overemphasized.

Model c a l i b r a t i o n , as d e f i n e d e a r l i e r , i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r t h e use o f . ma themat i ca l models i n systems a n a l y s i s . The c a l i b r a t i o n o f a model i m p l i e s a commitment o f t i m e and f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s . T h e r e f o r e , models must be a d j u s t e d and/or adapted t o t h e degree of accu racy r e q u i r e d a t t h e s t a g e i n q u e s t i on.

The use o f m o r e - s o p h i s t i c a t e d models may be o f g r e a t h e l p i n c a l i b r a t i n g t h e s i m p l i f i e d and l e s s expens ive models t h a t can be used

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w i t h h i g h e r e f f i c i e n c y f o r p r e l i m i n a r y sc reen ing . A good and proper c a l i b r a t i o n o f mathemat ica l models may encourage dec is ion-makers t o use them as a h e l p f u l t o o l .

Models shou ld n o t o n l y be c a l i b r a t e d , t hey a l s o must be i n d e p e n t l y v e r i f i e d . O f t e n mode lers tend t o use a l l t h e i r i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h e c a l i b r a t i o n phase and have no o r l i t t l e r e s e r v e d i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h e v e r i f i c a t i o n phase.

4.5 Interaction between analyst and decision -maker

The f o l l o w i n g t h r e e groups can be i d e n t i f i e d r e l e v a n t t o t h i s s tage o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess :

i ) t h e p l a n n e r s

i i ) t h e systems a n a l y s t , who p r o v i d e s t e c h n i c a l s u p p o r t t o t h e p l a n n e r s ,

i i i ) t h e p o l i c y - m a k e r s and p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a n t s

G iven t h a t t h e p l a n n e r s have seve ra l o b j e c t i v e s on t h e i r p l a n n i n g agenda (such as water supp ly , f l o o d c o n t r o l , water q u a l i t y , r e c r e a t i o n ) , t h e p l a n n e r s may a t t h e f i r s t i n t e r a t i o n d e v e l o p a f i r s t - c u t p l a n o r o p t i o n o f a b o u t f o u r o r f i v e a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s . The a n a l y s t s then use mathemat ica l models t h a t i n c o r p o r a t e t h e v a r i o u s i n p u t - o u t p u t r e l a t i o n s h i p s , . o b j e c t i v e s , and c o n s t r a i n t s t o c a s t t hese a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s i n a q u a n t i t i a t i v e form . I n p a r t i c u l a r , when m u l t i o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i o n models and m e t h o d o l o g i e s a r e used, t h e n Pare to o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s and t h e i r c o r r e s p o n d i n g t r a d e - o f f s a r e a l s o g e n e r a t e d - - a l l a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i n i t i a l f i r s t - c u t p l a n s genera ted by t h e p l a n n e r s . The p l a n n e r s r e e v a l u a t e t h e i r o r i g i n a l f o u r o r f i v e a l t e r n a t i v e s and m o d i f y them as a p p r o p r i a t e , u s i n g t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n genera ted by t h e a n a l y s t s . The s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f method, f o r example, can then be used h e r e i n a s i m u l a t i o n mode. F o l l o w i n g s e v e r a l i t e r a t i o n s among t h e p l a n n e r s and t h e

a n a l y s t ( s ) , t h e f o u r o r f i v e a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s a r e ready f o r e v a l u a t i o n b y t h e p u b l i c and/or p o l i c y a n a l y s t s and d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s .

w i t h p o l i must t h i s t h a t f avo comm

The a n a l y s t , when c o n s u l t i n g such d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s as

i c i a n s and s e n i o r b u r e a u c r a t s , be aware t h a t t hey may t r y a t

s t a g e t o e x c l u d e a l t e r n a t i v e s compete w i t h those t h a t t h e y

Dec is ion-makers a r e ss ioned , e l e c t e d , appo in ted , o r

i n some o t h e r way g i v e n t h e a u t h o r i t y and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o make d e c i s i o n s , and t h e r e f o r e t h e a n a l y s t s h o u l d n o t p l a y t h a t r o l e . Dec is ion-makers can a l s o i d e n t i f y p o l i t i c a l and i n s t i t u t i o n a l c o n s t r a i n t s t h a t wou ld e x c l u d e some a l t e r n a t i v e s . The main o u t l i n e s must be p r e s e n t e d t o p o l i t i c i a n s , b u r e a u c r a t s , and a f f e c t e d a g e n c i e s e a r l y enough and t h o r o u g h l y enough t h a t t h e y w i l l n o t be taken by s u r p r i se and r e a c t , p e r h a p s a u t o m a t i c a l l y , by c o m p l e t e l y r e j e c t i n g t h e p l a n (wh ich f o r them i s t h e e a s i e s t way t o r e a c t ) . Thorough d i s c u s s i o n s w i l l h e l p make them amenable t o acceptance o f t h e p l a n and t o i d e n t i f y i n g themselves w i t h i t , so t h a t t h e y may u l t i m a t e l y become i t s advocates .

I n s c r e e n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s , t h e p l a n n e r s shou ld s i m u l t a n e o u s l y r e p r e s e n t f o u r p o s s i b l y c o n f l i c t i n g i n t e r e s t s , v i e w s and p e r s p e c t i v e s :

i ) t h e i r agency ( i t s m i s s i o n and o r i e n t a t i ons)

i i ) t h e p u b l i c a t l a r g e as m a n i f e s t e d th rough pub1 i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n

i i i ) t h e i r p r o f e s s i o n a l judgment

i v ) t h e o v e r a l l g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e o r i g i n a l p l a n n i n g s t u d y

These f o u r o v e r l a p p i n g p e r s p e c t i v e s may n o t n e c e s s a r i l y b e c o m p a t i b l e - - t h e y a r e o f t e n n o t . One o f t h e p l a n n e r s ' o b j e c t i v e s s h o u l d be t h e development and/or f o r m u l a t i o n o f a f i n a l p l a n t h a t can enhance t h e s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g o f t h e p e o p l e i n t h e r e g i o n , can u l t i m a t e l y

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be accep ted b y t h e p u b l i c and o t h e r p o l i c y o r d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , and can a l s o be imp lementab le . I n t h e s c r e e n i n g p rocess , t h i s o b j e c t i v e s h o u l d g u i d e t h e p l a n n e r s toward a compromise p l a n o r s o l u t i o n t h a t i s v i a b l e and t h a t has a r e a s o n a b l e chance o f acceptance; o t h e r w i s e , t h e p l a n n i n g e f f o r t wou ld be o n l y an e x e r c i se.

I n h e r e n t i n m u l t i o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i on m e t h o d o l o g i e s i s i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h t h e dec i s ion -makers and t h e s o l i c i t a t i o n o f t h e i r i n p u t s and p r e f e r e n c e s . I n t h e haumee R i v e r B a s i n Case Study (see Case Study 41, f o r example, t h i s i n t e r a c t i on took p l ace numerous t i m e s . The n o t i o n t h a t t h e r e e x i s t s a s i n g l e dec i s ion -maker i n p u b l i c p r o j e c t s i s , o f cou rse , n a i v e and u n r e a l i s t i c . I n t h e Maumee Study , t h e r e was c o n t i n u o u s and c l o s e i n t e r a c t i o n between t h e a n a l y s t s and t h e dec i s ion -makers a t v a r i o u s l e v e l s o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g h i e r a r c h y . Each o f t h e s e l e v e l s had i t s own i n f l u e n c e and impact on t h e s t u d y outcome. Very o f t e n , t h e a n l a y s t s were t h e dec i s ion -makers themse lves . The h i e r a r c h y o f d e c i s i o n makers c o n s i s t e d of t h e P 1 ann i ng Board members and t h e i r c l o s e a s s o c i a t e s , who i n t u r n c e n t r a l i z e d t h e d a t a and p r o v i d e d t h e needed t e c h n i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n t o t h e P l a n n i n g Board. I n a d d i t i o n , t h i s h i e r a r c h y i n c l u d e d t h e s t u d y manager and h i s s t a f f , p l u s a s s o c i a t e s a t t h e e x e c u t i v e l e v e l o f t h e Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission, t h e Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission i t s e l f , t h e C i t i z e n s ' A d v i s o r y Committee, t h e Study commi t tee , t h e S t e e r i n g Commi t t e e , t h e Water Resources Counc i 1 , t h e pub 1 i c t h r o u g h v a r i o u s p u b l i c h e a r i n g s , and o t h e r agenc ies who were n o t r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e above groups o f dec i s ion -makers b u t who have i n f l u e n c e i n t h e r e g i o n .

4.6 Compatibility with other plans and public participation

Even though c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h agenc ies d u r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess i s e s s e n t i a l , t h i s w i l l n o t n e c e s s a r i l y l e a d t o a c o o r d i n a t e d

o u t p u t . The re a r e s e v e r a l reasons f o r t h i s :

1) Coopera t i on may n o t be c o n s i d e r e d i m p o r t a n t by a l l of t h e agenc ies

2) Too o f t e n a pe rson w i t h o u t much r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o r a u t h o r i t y i s s e n t t o t h e mee t ings .

3) Not a l l mee t ings a r e a t tended , and r e p o r t s a r e n o t c o n s i d e r e d s e r i o u s l y .

4) There may b e b a s i c d isagreements among t h e agenc ies .

N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t a wa te r p l a n n o t b e negated b y t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f ano the r a g e n c y ' s p r o j e c t , e.g., b u i l d i n g a r e s e r v o i r on t h e s i t e o f a ma jor highway (or v i c e v e r s a ) ; a p lanned a g r i c u l t u r a l expans ion b e i n g f l o o d e d by a r e s e r v o i r ; o r h a v i n g w a t e r q u a l i t y improvement k i l l e d o f f by ano the r c o u n t r y ' s d i v e r s i o n o f f l o w s . Thus, b e f o r e t h e f i n a l p l a n i s developed, i t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t a p p r o p r i a t e o f f i c i a 1 s (dec is ion-makers) b e i n v o l v e d - - t h o s e who can agree t o m o d i f i c a t i o n s and w i l l ensure t h a t t h e y a r e done.

One s h o u l d t r y t o i n c o r p o r a t e a t l e a s t some o f t h e c o m p a t i b i l i t y c o n d i t i o n s among p lanned a c t i v i t i e s as e x p l i c i t c o n s t r a i n t s i n t h e a n a l y s i s - - i f t h e y a r e indeed b i n d i n g c o n s t r a i n t s . I t i s more e f f i c i e n t t o cons ide r t h e c o m p a t i b i l i t y i ssues a t t h e o u t s e t t h a n j u s t as a p o s t - a n a l y s i s m a t t e r .

I n c e r t a i n c o u n t r i e s , p u b l i c h e a r i n g s and p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n a r e r e q u i r e d by law p r i o r t o f i n a l approva 1 o f any major wa te r resources p r o j e c t t h a t i n v o l v e s p u b l i c funds . These p u b l i c h e a r i n g s have a g r e a t advantage i n t h a t p u b l i c concerns , o b j e c t i o n s , and v iews o t h e r than t h o s e of t h e i n t e r e s t e d agenc ies a r e heard , and o f t e n subsequent m o d i f i c a t i o n s a r e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n these p l a n s . There i s a need t o s y s t e m a t i z e t h i s p a r t i c i p a t i o n - - t o t h e e x t e n t p o s s i b l e - - a n d i n t e g r a t e i t w i t h t h e e n t i r e p l ann i ng and sc reen i ng

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process . The deve 1 opment (and des ign ) o f q u e s t i o n n a i r e s t h a t can a r t i c u l a t e p u b l i c p r e f e r e n c e s i n a cogent way i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t . A lso , t h e p r e l i m i n a r y e d u c a t i o n o f t he p u b l i c on t h e i s s u e s a t s t a k e and t h e p r e p a r a t o r y s teps f o r p u b l i c h e a r i n g s and e v a l u a t i o n o f these a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s shou ld be p lanned w e l l i n advance.

4.7 Procedures and techniques for screening alternatives

There a r e two p r i n c i p a l o p t i o n s f o r d e a l i n g w i t h the s c r e e n i n g problem. I n one, a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e screened v i a o p t i m i z a t i o n c a r r i e d o u t on t h e aggregated da ta and the s i m p l i f i e d system r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . A p p l i c a t i o n o f l i n e a r programming as a s c r e e n i n g d e v i c e i s a good example o f t h e f i r s t o p t i o n - - n o a p r i o r i i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f d i s c r e t e a l t e r n a t i v e s i s done. I n t h e second o p t i o n , a s e t o f p o t e n t i a 1 a l t e r n a t i v e s i s somehow deve loped ( o f t e n based s i m p l y on e x p e r t s ' recommendt ions), and they a r e then e v a l u a t e d and r a n k e d a c c o r d i n g t o some c r i t e r i a . I n b o t h o p t i o n s a s i n g l e c r i t e r i o n o r a m u l t i t u d e o f c r i t e r i a may be employed. Consequent ly , s i n g l e - c r i t e r i o n or m u l t i p l e - c r i t e r i a techn iques may be used. A p p r o p r i a t e p rocedures and t e c h n i q u e s i n c l u d e t h e s c a l a r and v e c t o r l i n e a r programming method, t h e SWT method, t h e E l e c t r e method, t h e s c o r e c a r d s method, e t c . I n t e r a c t i v e man-machine procedures and d e c i s i o n s u p p o r t systems a r e becoming more and more used f o r s c r e e n i n g purposes.

Screen ing o f a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s i s a c o n t i n u o u s and i t e r a t i v e p rocess . The techn iques and procedures used f o r s c r e e n i n g purposes a r e c l o s e l y and l a r g e l y dependent on

i) t h e l e v e l o f p l a n n i n g

i i ) t h e s tage i n t h e p l a n n i n g proces

i i i ) t h e i t e r a t i o n w i t h i n t h e s t a g e

i v ) t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f q u a l i f i e d and t r a i n e d personne l who can make use o f q u a n t i t a t i v e sys temic approaches

v) t h e need f o r u s i n g such q u a n t i t a t i v e p rocedures

' By means o f o p t i m i z a t i o n methods a l a r g e number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s can be eva lua ted , b u t t h i s can be a c h i e v e d o n l y a t t h e expense o f a d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n o f a l l a l t e r n a t i v e s . By c o n t r a s t , a pu re s i m u l a t i o n model may a l l o w for a v e r y d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n , b u t i n t h i s case o n l y a few a l t e r n a t i v e s can be i n v e s t i g a t e d . Depending on t h e p r o j e c t i n q u e s t i o n , t h e r i g h t system a n a l y s i s t o o l shou ld b e s e l e c t e d . I n a s i t u a t i o n w i t h a few c l e a r , d i s t i n c t a l t e r n a t i v e s , one shou ld p r o b a b l y n o t implement an o p t i m i z a t i o n model, b u t s h o u l d r a t h e r choose a model by w h i c h t h e consequences o f each a l t e r n a t i v e can be assessed i n g r e a t d e t a i l . The o p p o s i t e argument o f c o u r s e a p p l i e s t o t h e s i t u a t i o n where a l a r g e number o f more o r l e s s dependent d e c i s i o n v a r i ab 1 es must b e c o n s i d e r e d . ( T h i s r e p r e s e n t s an " o p t i ma 1 use o f sys tems ana 1 ys i s t echn ique . )

Any s c r e e n i n g p r o c e d u r e a t any s t a g e o f t h e p l a n n i n g phase r e q u i r e s t h a t t h e f o l l o w i n g i tems be d e c i d e d upon b y consensus o f t h e s c r e e n i n g team:

a) a s e t o f d e c i s i o n v a r i a b l e s t o b e c o n s i d e r e d a t t h e g i v e n s tage ( t h e s e become more s p e c i f i c and d e t a i l e d as t h e p l a n n i n g process advances f r o m one s t a g e t o t h e n e x t )

b) a s e t o f s c r e e n i n g c r i t e r i a t o b e emp 1 oyed

The s c r e e n i n g team may v a r y f r o m s t a g e t o s tage .

A g r o u p t e c h n i q u e (such as t h e nom i na I group techn ique) f o r s c r e e n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s a t t h i s i n i t i a l l e v e l may be recommended, s i n c e p o l i t i c i a n s may argue f o r a l o n g t i m e w i t h o u t r e s u l t i f t h e arguments a r e n o t s t a t e d e x p l i c i t l y i n w r i t i ng.

S c r e e n i n g and g e n e r a t i o n may o f t e n be c o n s i d e r e d as a complex, r e p e a t e d a c t i v i t y ; i .e . , a f t e r each s c r e e n i n g t h e reduced number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s i s i nc reased a g a i n by

a l l o w i n g f o r more d e t a i l i n t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s .

I n summary, s c r e e n i n g t e c h n i q u e s may range anywhere between " r u l e o f thumb" and " f o r m a l o p t i m i z a t i o n , " depending on t h e t y p e o f p rob lem and t h e l e v e l o f s c r e e n i n g a t wh i ch rank i ng procedures a r e used.

4.8 Use of hierarchical analysis in plan formulation and screening alternatives

A necessary c o n d i t i o n for t h e s u c c e s s f u l use o f systems m e t h o d o l o g i e s f o r w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g i s t h e a b i l i t y t o d e v e l o p a (mathemat i ca 1 ) model t h a t i s r e s p o n s i v e t o (and a c c o u n t s f o r ) t h e v a r i o u s o b j e c t i v e s , c o n s t r a i n t s , and i n p u t - o u t p u t casua l r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f t h e system t h a t i s b e i n g modeled. Only i f t h i s c o n d i t i o n i s met w i l l t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e model be m e a n i n g f u l and imp lementab le .

The h i e r a r c h i c a l approach possesses many i m p o r t a n t a t t r i b u t e s f o r b o t h m o d e l i n g and o p t i m i z a t i o n . The h i e r a r c h i c a l approach i s , i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , a p h i l o s o p h y and n o t a r i g i d methodology. T h i s p h i l o s o p h y r e c o g n i z e s t h a t w a t e r r e s o u r c e s systems have most o f t h e f o l l o w i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (Haimes 1977) :

i ) m u l t i p l e noncommensurable o b j e c t i v e s as w e l l as m u l t i p l e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s

d e c i s i o n s ) : dynamic ( t i m e dependent ) ; n o n - d e t e r m i n i s t i c , w i t h h i g h e lements o f r i s k and

hav i ng u n c e r t a i n t i e s ; and d i s t r i b u t e d parameters

v) v a r i a b i l i t y o f p o r t i o n s o f t h e system (prob lem) , wh ich g e t s i n t h e way o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m o d e l i n g

Such c o m p l e x i t y suggests t h a t s imp le systems methodo log ies a r e l i k e l y t o f a l l s h o r t o f s u c c e s s f u l l y mode l ing and o p t i m i z i n g w a t e r resources systems w i t h t h e above c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .

The concept o f t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l approach I S based on t h e d e c o m p o s i t i o n o f l a r g e - s c a l e and complex systems and t h e subsequent mode l ing o f t h e system i n t o IIi ndependent" subsystems. T h i s d e c e n t r a l i z e d approach, by u t i l i z i n g t h e concepts o f l e v e l s , s t r a t a , and l a y e r s , e n a b l e s t h e systems a n a l y s t t o assess and comprehend t h e behav io r o f t h e subsystems a t a lower l e v e l and t o t r a n s m i t t h e i n f o r m a t i o n o b t a i n e d t o fewer subsystems a t a h i g h e r l e v e l .

I n a p p l y i n g t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l approach t o t h e mode l ing and o p t i m i z a t i o n o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s systems, c o m b i n a t i o n s o f s e v e r a l h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e s a r e a v a i l a b l e t o t h e a n a l y s t . These c o m b i n a t i o n s a r e based on f o u r m a j o r d e s c r i p t i o n s (decompos i t ions ) , name 1 y :

(1) tempor a 1 i i) a l a r g e number of v a r i a b l e s and

parameters (2 ) phys i ca 1 - h y d r o l o g i c a l

i i i) a l a r g e number o f c o u p l e d components (subsystems)

i v ) i n p u t - o u t p u t causa 1 r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t a r e n o n l i n e a r

con t inuous , d i s c r e t e , and 0-1 ( o f t e n a c o m b i n a t i o n o f

(3) p o l i t i c a l - g e o g r a p h i c a l

(4) g o a l - o r i e n t e d o r f u n c t i o n a l

(1) Temporal d e s c r i p t i o n

A p . lann ing t ime h o r i z o n f o r

-49-

water s u p p l y p r o j e c t s o f t e n spans 30-50 y e a r s . I n t o t h i s l o n g - t e r m p l a n n i n g i s u s u a l l y imbedded an i n t e r m e d i a t e te rm o f 10-15 yea rs , o f t e n r e f er r e d t o as p l a n n i n g - f o r - o p e r a t i o n , f o l l o w e d by a s h o r t t e r m o f 2-5 years . C l e a r l y , t h e s h o r t - , i n t e r m e d i a t e - , and

c o m p a t i b l e w i t h each o t h e r and t h u s c o o r d i n a t e d , s i n c e they r e l a t e t o t h e same system. To i l l u s t r a t e , p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n s o f water resources f o r c r o p and r e l a t e d l and use can b e o f t h e o r d e r o f 1-2 years . t iowever, when a c r o p has been s e l e c t e d and t h e wa te r f o r i t s seasonal g rowth has been a l l o c a t e d , h o r i z o n s o f d e c i s i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e p e r i o d i c i r r i g a t i o n w i t h i n t h e season a r e o f t h e o r d e r o f weeks o r days.

1 ong- t e r m p 1 ans have t o be.

(2) P h y s i c a l - h y d r o l o g i c a l d e s c r i p t i o n

A r i v e r bas i n i s , b y d e f i n i t i o n , a h y d r o l o g i c a l l y s e l f - c o n t a i n e d r e g i o n , separa ted f rom a d j a c e n t b a s i n s by r i d g e s o r o t h e r t o p o g r a p h i c a l d i v i d e r s . O f t e n a wa te r resources management system cove rs a r e g i o n c o n s i s t i n g o f a complex o f s e v e r a l f i v e r b a s i n s . Thus, a r e g i o n can be d i v i d e d i n t o s e v e r a l sub reg ions , f u r t h e r d i v i d e d i n t o s e v e r a l r i v e r b a s i n s , and f u r t h e r d i v i d e d i n t o s e v e r a l subbas ins .

(3) P o l i t i c a l - g e o g r a p h i c a l d e s c r i p t i o n

Reg iona l wa te r resources systems o f t e n come under a v a r i e t y o f g e o g r a p h i c a l l y d e f i n e d g o v e r n i n g a g e n c i e s - - c i t y , coun ty , and s t a t e , f o r i n s t a n c e . Mode l i ng f o r wa te r resources p l a n n i n g and management may c o n s i d e r a p o l i t i c a l - g e o g r a p h i c a l d e s . c r i p t i o n as a c r i t e r i o n f o r decomposing t h e r e g i o n a l a r e a i n t o sub reg ions .

(4) G o a l - o r i e n t e d o r f u n c t i o n a l d e s c r i p t i o n

Most water resources systems have been ana lyzed w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e i r economic and f u n c t i o n a l g o a l s . Var i ous models f o l l o w i n g t h i s

p a t t e r n a r e a v a i l a b l e i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , such as demand and s u p p l y models and models f o r h y d r o e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t i o n , i r r i g a t i o n , i n d u s t r i a l and m u n i c i p a l use, r e c r e a t i o n , e t c .

4.9 Use of multiobjective analysis

A r e c e n t t r e n d i n systems a n a l y s i s has been t o use mode ls t h a t have more t h a n one o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n . T h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y i m p o r t a n t i n t h e p l a n n i n g o f r i v e r b a s i n s , where t h e r e tend t o be seve ra 1 con f 1 i c t i n g and noncommensurable o b j e c t i v e s . f o r example, one may want t o max imize b o t h economic e f f i c i e n c y , w h i c h i s measured i n monetary u n i t s , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y , w h i c h i s measured i n u n i t s o f p o l l u t a n t c o n c e n t r a t i o n . T r a d i t i o n a l l y , o n l y one o b j e c t i v e (economic e f f i c i e n c y ) has been cons ide red , w i t h t h e o t h e r o b j e c t i v e s b e i n g i n c l u d e d e i t h e r as c o n s t r a i n t s or as b e i n g somehow commensurate w i t h t h e p r i m a r y o b j e c t i ve . However, s o c i e t y i s p l a c i n g an i n c r e a s i n g impor tance on nonpecun ia ry o b j e c t i v e s t h a t a r e d i f f i c u l t t o q u a n t i f y m o n e t a r i l y .

A d o p t i n g a m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s p h i l o s o p h y i n t h i s s t a g e o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess (as w e l l as i n t h e o t h e r s tages) adds t o t h e s y s t e m i c and q u a n t i t a t i v e s e t u p . C o s t - b e n e f i t ana l ys i s has t r a d i t i o n a l l y dominated b o t h S tage 3 and Stage 4. I t can be e a s i l y demons t r a t ed t h a t c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s i s a s p e c i a l case (a simp1 i f i e d case) o f m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s ; i t i s t h e case i n w h i c h a1 1 o b j e c t i v e s have been commensurated and augmented i n te rms o f b e n e f i t s and c o s t s .

Fundamental t o m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s i s t h e P a r e t o optimum, w h i c h i s a l s o known as t h e

so 1 u t i on. n o n i n f e r i o r Q u a l i t a t i v e l y , a n o n i n f e r i o r s o l u t i o n o f a m u l t i o b j e c t i v e p rob lem i s one where any improvement of one o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n can be a c h i e v e d o n l y a t t h e expense o f d e g r a d i n g a n o t h e r .

-50-

Mathemat i ca l mode l i ng and systems e n g i n e e r i n g s h o u l d n o t be a s u b s t i t u t e f o r , b u t r a t h e r t o o l s o f , t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p rocess . They can be v e r y v a l u a b l e i n g e n e r a t i n g p o s s i b l e outcomes under c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s and assumpt ions . They a r e c a p a b l e o f g e n e r a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s and p l a n s t h a t a r e " o p t i ma 1 I ' under spec i f i c assumpt ions and c r i t e r i a . I n m u l t i o b j e c t i v e p l a n n i n g , where t h e concep t o f o p t i r n a l i t y i s expanded i n t o P a r e t o o p t i r n a l i t y , t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e v a r i o u s model P a r e t o o p t i m a l p l a n s can be i n v a l u a b l e i n i d e n t i f y i n g s p e c i f i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and a t t r i b u t e s o f a b a s i n ' s p l a n n i n g subarea as w e l l as i n q u a n t i f y i n g t h e complex i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e many components i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess . Once t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f t h e ma themat i ca l mode 1 s under c o n s i d e r a t i o n a r e i d e n t i f i e d and q u a n t i f i e d , t hey can be used v e r y e f f e c t i v e l y as s i m u l a t i o n models t o answer "what i f " t y p e q u e s t i o n s . The exper ience g a i n e d u s i n g t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f (SWT) method r e i n f o r c e s t h e need f o r i n t e g r a t i n g ma themat i ca l models and s i m u l a t i o n models t o improve t h e e f f i c a c y o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess .

The a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e SWT method t o v a r i o u s problems w i t h m u l t i o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s can be ex tended t o t h e m i n i m i z a t i o n o f r i s k , s e n s i t i v i t y , i r r e v e r s i b i l i t y , and u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h ma themat i ca l models j o i n t l y w i t h t h e m i n i m i z a t i o n o f t h e m o d e l ' s o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n , i n a mu1 t i o b j e c t i ve f ramework. The P a r e t o o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s and - t h e a s s o c i a t e d t r a d e - o f f v a l u e s h e l p t h e dec i s ion -makers s e l e c t an a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l o f assurance and t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g c o s t . I n o t h e r words, dec i s ion -makers can make known t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e 1 eve 1 o f assurance a g a i n s t u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n t h e model I s p r e d i c t i o n a t t h e expense o f a d e g r a d a t i o n ( r e d u c t i o n ) i n t h e m o d e l ' s o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n .

The s u b j e c t o f m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s s h o u l d be e x p l i c i t l y d i s c u s s e d a t each s t e p o f t h e

p l a n n i n g p rocess because o f i t s c e n t r a l r o l e i n wa te r r e s o u r c e p l a n n i n g . Hos t , i f n o t a l l , wa ter resources systems a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s , m u l t i p l e dec i s ion -makers , and m u 1 t i p l e c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . I n f o r m u l a t i n g and s c r e e n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s , t hese m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s , wh ich a r e o f t e n noncommensurable and may be i n c o n f l i c t and i n c o m p e t i t i o n , must be g i v e n e x p l i c i t and q u a n t i t a t i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n ( t o t h e e x t e n t p o s s i b l e ) . For example, i n c r e a s i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n commonly l e a d s t o a h i g h e r l e v e l o f shee t e r o s i o n and s e d i m e n t a t i o n ; o r t h e o p t i m a l use o f r e s e r v o i r s f o r f l o o d c o n t r o l purposes may be ach ieved a t t h e expense o f r e d u c i n g hydro-power g e n e r a t i o n (as a p p l i c a b l e ) , e t c .

-Mu lQob. jec t i ve a n a l y s i s i n t h i s c o n t e x t s h o u l d be v iewed n o t o n l y as a m e t h o d o l o g i c a l approach b u t a l s o . . as a ph i losophy . T r a d e - o f f s a r e a i n h e r e n t p a r t o f n e q o t i a t i o n , o f

-compromise s o l u t i u . Thus, t h e use o f m u l t i o b j e c t i v e and t r a d e - o f f a n a l y s i s i n t h e development o f f i n a l p l a n r e s u l t s can be a n a t u r a l s t e p i n t h i s phase. T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e when t h e a n a l y s t s , p l a n n e r s , and dec i s ion -makers a r e c o g n i z a n t of t h e e f f i c a c y , a t t r i b u t e s , and l i m i t a t i o n s o f mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s .

%chi nq consensus, and o f

Numerous me thodo log ies f o r mu 1 t i o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i o n ( a n a l y s i s ) have been deve loped i n t h e l a s t decade--many o f them i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h water r e s o u r c e p l a n n i n g and management. Severa l books a r e a v a i l a b l e today on t h e use o f m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s i n wa te r r e s o u r c e p l a n n i n g and management.

i -

The r o l e o f m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y c r i t i c a l i n t h e a d d r e s s i n g n o n s t r u c t u r a l p l a n s , i n wh ich t h e c o s t , b e n e f i t s , and r i s k s cannot be e a s i l y q u a n t i f i e d i n monetary te rms as they can i n more s t r u c t u r e d p l a n s . Fur thermore , as env i ronmen ta l and o t h e r socioeconomic aspec ts dominate and i n f l u e n c e p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s , t h e

m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s become more impor tance and needs o f

-51-

and more c r i t i c a l and e v i d e n t . An examp 1 e o f t h e compl ex 1 y i n t e r r e l a t e d o b j e c t i v e s 3 a t must b e dealt= found i n t h e Maumee -P lann ing Study - (see Case Study 4) , i n w h i c h t h e f o l l o w i n g s i x o b j e c t i v e s were i n c l u d e d i n t h e ma themat i ca l model i ng and -:

enhancement o f water q u a l i t y , f o c u s i n g on p o i n t - s o u r c e p o l l u t i o n

r e d u c t i o n o f e ros i o n , s e d i m e n t a t i o n , and phosphorus f rom n o n p o i n t sources

enhancement o f r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s

p r o t e c t i o n o f w i l d l i f e h a b i t a t

r e d u c t i o n o f f l o o d damage %.A&-

p r o t e c t i o n o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l and W C t 0 k ; L t For most w a t e r resources

systems (and many o t h e r systems as w e l l ) , d e c i s i o n s a r e n o t made by a s i n g l e i n d i v i d u a l b u t r a t h e r by groups o f i n d i v i d u a l s . These may be l e g i s l a t i v e bod ies , t he board o f d i r e c t o r s o f a w a t e r d i s t r i c t , a s t a t e o f f i c i a l , e t c . I n e v e r y case, each member o f t h e group has a pe rsona l v i e w o f t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e , impor tance, and r e l a t i v e v a l u e o f t h e v a r i o u s o b j e c t i v e s b e i n g cons ide red . F u r t hermor e, each dec is ion-maker may have a c o n s t i t u e n c y t o whom he o r she i s r e s p o n s i b l e . T h i s means t h a t t h e dec is ion-maker must i n t e g r a t e t h e r e l a t i v e i n f l u e n c e and v iews o f t h e segments o f t h i s c o n s t i tuency i n t o t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e m e r i t s o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s . The c r i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e o f t h e s e dec is ion-makers and s t a k e h o l d e r s must be r e c o g n i z e d th roughou t t h e p l a n n i n g process .

I n t h i s handbook, a d i s t i n c t i o n shou ld be made between two aspec ts - - ( i ) t h e needs, impor tance, and e f f i c a c y o f m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s and ( i i ) t h e me thodo log ies and techn iques o f m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s . Obv ious l y our a t t e n t i o n shou ld f o c u s on t h e fo rmer , and n o t on t h e l a t t e r .

A r e c e n t development o f m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s i s i t s use i n a man-machine i n t e r a c t i v e mode, t h r o u g h .dec i s ion s u p p o r t syst=.Sf;' ( D S S s ) . I n I s r a e l , f o r example, a n e D S S has =-fo- &

s c r e e n i n g . I n t h i s D S S , a l l a r e s u b j ec t e d t o

e x a m i n a t i o n i n terms o f 38 c r i t e r i a t h a t have an o v e r a l l g o a l o f a s s e s s i n g a minimum-damage f u n c t i o n f o r d e l a y i ng a p r o j e c t ' s c o n s t r u c t i on. S u c c e s s f u l e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n s w i t h gam i ng s i m u l a t i o n have been r e a l i z e d , i n wh ich p a r t o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n o f a human n a t u r a l - r e s o u r c e s e n g i n e e r i n g - h a r d w a r e sys tem i s

computer , w h i l e t h e human p a r t i s c a r r i e d o u t by p e o p l e p l a y i n g r o l e s . I t i s sometimes p o s s i b l e t o g e t t h e r e a l - l i f e dec i s ion -makers t o p l a y t h e i r own r o l e s . I n t h i s e r a o f

computers, a D S S m i g h t be a v e r y p r o m i s i n g concep t t h a t c o u l d h e l p dec i s ion -makers t o more c l e a r l y see t h e consequences o f t h e i r s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e s .

execu ted " a u t o m a t i c a l l y " b y

i nc reas i ng a v a i l a b i 1 i t y of

To s um UP 9 r e a l - w o r l d dec i s i on-mak_i_n_.,Erpcesses-are, ,.. ,-.I- a 1 ways a s s o c i a t e d

-ms-.. The most i m p o r t a n t t a s k s o f a n a l y s t s who cope w i t h t h e conduc t of m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s i s t o make t h e dec i s ion -makers aware t h a t t h e y a r e a c t u a l l y d o i n g t h a t k i n d o f a n a l y s i s , i m p l i c i t l y , i n t h e i r m inds . Thus, i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o p u t some o r d e r i n t h e i r way o f t h i nk i ng, because a m a t h e m 2 i t i g l

; model can never be deve loped t o

; h a n d l i n g m u l t - i o b j e c t i v e ... - .. _^__. o p t i m i z a t i o n ': ;rob1 ems. -

, ---- --'--

wi- th mu 1 t i ob i ec t i2-L

r eP a c e Lh e-deci s i p n -mak_er' s.way_- o i : ~ ~ - ~ ~ ~ - - - - ~. ~~ . -~~

, ---.

- -

L

4.10 References

Goicoechea, A . , D . Hansen, L .

Mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e D e c i s i s i o n A n a l y s i s w i t h E n g i n e e r i n g and Bus iness A p p l i c a t i o n s . W i l e y , New York .

D u c k s t e i n . 1982.

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Haimes, Y . Y . 1977. H i e r a r c h i c a l Anal yses o f Water Resources Systems: Model i ng and O p t i m i z a t i o n o f L a r g e - s c a l e Systems. McGraw-Hi l l , New York.

Haimes, Y . Y . 1981. R i s k - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s i n a m u l t i o b j e c t i v e f ramework. I n R i sk/Benef i t A n a l y s i s i n Water Resources P l a n n i n g and Management, Y . Y . Haimes, (ed.) . Plenum, New York and London, pp. 89-122.

Hairnes, Y . Y . , and D.J. A 1 l e e , (eds.) . 1984. M u l t i o b j e c t i v e A n a l y s i s i n Water Resources. American S o c i e t y o f C i v i 1 Eng ineers , New York .

U .S . OTA--U.S. O f f i c e of Technology Assessment. 1982 . Use o f Models f o r Water Resources Management, P l a n n i n g and P o l i c y . OTA. Washington,D.C.

5. Deve lopmen t o f final study resul ts

I n Stage 4, t h e p l a n n i n g team, f o l l o w i n g e x t e n s i v e d i s c u s s i o n , n e g o t i a t i o n , and p u b l i c h e a r i n g s , s e l e c t s a p l a n and recommends i t s a d o p t i o n t o h i g h e r - l e v e l a u t h o r i t y . These recommendat ions a r e made o n l y a f t e r t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f Stage 3, d u r i n g wh ich t h e team ( i ) has s u c c e s s f u l l y conducted a f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy t o e v a l u a t e t h e f i n a n c i a l , p o l i t i c a l , l e g a l - r e g u l a t o r y , o r g a n i z a t i o n a l , and personne 1 r a m i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e proposed p l a n and i t s i mpacts, ( i i ) has i d e n t i f i e d , q u a n t i f i e d , and e v a l u a t e d a l l p e r t i n e n t e lements o f r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p l a n as p a r t o f t h e mu1 t i o b j e c t i ve t r a d e - o f f eva 1 u a t i on and o p t i m i z a t i o n a c t i v i t y , and ( i i i ) has deve loped o p e r a t i o n a l r u l e s w i t h i n a p l a n n i n g - f o r - o p e r a t i o n s tudy f o r a1 1 p e r t i n e n t p r o j e c t ( s ) t h a t have been deve loped as p a r t o f t h e o v e r a l l p l a n .

5.1 The relationship betwem . Stages 3 and 4

As ment ioned p r e v i o u s l y , t h e r e e x i s t s a c e r t a i n o v e r l a p between Stages 3 and 4 o f t he p l a n n i n g process. I n a r e a l sense, t h e r e i s a l o g i c a l con t inuum between t h e s c r e e n i n g o f p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s and t h e development o f f i n a l s tudy r e s u l t s .

More s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e p r o c e s s o f p l ann i ng, des ign i ng, and o p e r a t i n g water resources p r o j e c t s lends i t s e l f t o a h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f subsystems as w e l l as d e c i s i o n s . I t i s o f t e n common t h a t h i g h e r - o r d e r and more g l o b a l d e c i s i o n s d i c t a t e and i n f l u e n c e l o w e r - l e v e l and more l o c a l o r p a r o c h i a l d e c i s i o n s , and v i c e - v e r s a . Yet , a t Stage 3 o f t h e p l a n n i n g process , an a t t e m p t i s made a t e x e c u t i n g h i g h - l e v e l p l a n n i n g w i t h o u t a d e t a i l e d d e s i g n or p l a n n i n g - f o r - o p e r a t i o n ana l ys i s . Consequent ly , t h e p r e l i m i na ry

s c r e e n i n g s a t Stage 3 a r e made w i t h o u t t h e d e t a i l e d a n a l y s e s t h a t a r e commonly conducted a t Stage 4. However, f rom a p r a c t i c a l v i e w p o i n t and g i v e n t h e l i m i t e d a v a i l a b l e t i m e and resources , t h e proposed sequence o f Stages 3 and 4 i s recommended he re .

The p l a n n e r shou ld a l s o keep i n mind t h a t Stage 4 may be d i r e c t l y c o u p l e d w i t h Stage 2 i n te rms o f d a t a development and improvement. F u r t h e r m o r e , a t Stage 4 t h e p l a n n e r s may f i n d i t necessary t o r e q u e s t a p r o j e c t d e s i g n (Stage 5) i n o r d e r t o g e n e r a t e more-accura te c o s t f u n c t i o n s o f c a n d i d a t e s t r u c t u r e s o r o t h e r measures t h a t a r e b e i n g c o n t e m p l a t e d . Note t h a t i n c e r t a i n s t u d i e s , o n l y one p l a n may be s e l e c t e d , and a d e t a i l e d p r o j e c t c o n f i g u r a t i o n wou ld be a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t h a t p l a n a lone . However, under d i f f e r e n t c i r c u m s t a n c e s , more t h a n one p l a n may be s e l e c t e d and s u b s e q u e n t l y more t h a n one p r o j e c t c o n f i g u r a t i o n wou ld be i n o r d e r .

Stage 3 amounts t o a p r e l i m i n a r y s c r e e n i n g , w h i l e Stage 4 i s i n t e n d e d t o l e a d t h e p r o j e c t v e r y c l o s e t o i t s f i n a l recommended c o n f i g u r a t i o n (o r t h e e q u i v a l e n t o f t h i s a t ano the r l e v e l o f p l a n n i n g ) . Because o f t h i s , Stage 4 i s l i k e l y t o r e q u i r e t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f more r e s o u r c e s and t h e use o f more s o p h i s t i c a t e d techn iques , and t h e e n t i r e p r o c e s s i s l i k e l y t o be more t h o r o u g h l y executed . Resu 1 t s o b t a i n e d i n Stage 4 may suggest t h e need f o r a r e p e t i t i o n o f some p o r t i o n s o f Stage 3 (an i t e r a t i v e l o o p ) , w i t h perhaps t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f one o r more add i t i ona 1 a l t e r n a t i v e s .

D u r i n g Stage 4, t h e p r o j e c t i s a n a l y z e d i n d e t a i l , i n c l u d i n g t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f one o r more s u i t a b l e i n t e g r a t e d models , w h i c h w i l l r e q u i r e t h e f o l l o w i n g s t e p s :

a. q u a n t i t a t i v e d e f i n i t i o n o f a l l v a r i a b l e s and te rms

b . q u a n t i f i c a t i o n ( t o t h e e x t e n t p o s s i b l e ) o f a l l f i n a l

C .

- o b j e c t i v e s - c o n s t r a i n t s - i n p u t - o u t p u t r e l a t i o n s h i p s - m e a s u r e s - - s t r u c t u r a l and

i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and e v a l u t i o n o f a v a i l a b l e e x i s t i n g models and submodel s t h a t m i g h t b e c a n d i d a t e s f o r use i n Stage 4 o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s

n o n s t r u c t u r a l

d . e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e d a t a base needed f o r s t e p c above needed

e . c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new models and submodel s

f . i n t e g r a t i o n o f new ly deve loped mode 1 s and submodels w i t h e x i s t i n g models, as a p p r o p r i a t e

g. g e n e r a t i o n o f needed p r o j e c t i o n s

h. model t e s t i n g , c a l i b r a t i o n , and v a l i d a t i o n , as a p p r o p r i a t e

The f i n a l r e s u l t o f t h i s s t a g e presumably leads- t o an " o p t i m a l " p l a n , b e t t e r known as t h e most p r e f e r r e d o r t h e l e a s t compromised p l a n . The p l a n n i n g and p o l i c y o p t i o n deve 1 oped t h r o u g h t h e use o f models and t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d t r a d e - o f f s and impacts a r e d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l a t t h i s s tage . T h i s i s done w i t h t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f a l l concerned dec i s ion -makers , s t a k e - h o l d e r s , c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , and a g e n c i e s .

5.2 input to and output from Stage 4

The e s s e n t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n s t h a t t a k e p l a c e between Stage 4 and t h e o t h e r s t a g e s o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess w i l l b e summarized i n t h i s s e c t i o n :

A) Input to Stage 4

Stage 4 r e q u i r e s a t l e a s t t h e f o l l o w i n g i n p u t s :

-54-

fr

R

BJ

t h e sc reen 3, where p o o r l y d e f were cons p o o r l y de f u z z i ness

ng r e s u l t s f rom Stage a l a r g e number o f

ned a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s dered . (The te rm ined r e f e r s t o t h e f p r o j e c t d imens ions ,

u n c e r t a i n t y about t h e t i m e o f commiss ion ing , and vagueness c o n c e r n i n g o t h e r o p e r a t i o n a l p roper t i es) . a d d i t i o n a l endogenous and exogenous system d a t a , b u i l d i n g on t h e d a t a t h a t were j u s t s u f f i c i e n t l y d e t a i l e d and a c c u r a t e t o p e r m i t t h e s c r e e n i n g a t Stage 3 .

Output from Stage 4 needed for feasibility study

A p r o j e c t f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y i s a p rocess t h a t s u b j e c t s t h e p r o j e c t and i t s v a r i o u s components t o a s e t o f p r e - s e l e c t e d q u a l i f i c t i o n , s tandards , and c r i t e r i a . The p r o j e c t and i t s components must meet these q u a l i f i c a t i o n s i n o r d e r t o be d e s i g n a t e d as " f e a s i b l e . " Such s tandards and c r i t e r i a g e n e r a l l y i nc 1 ude techn i ca 1 economic, l e g a l - r e g u l a t o r y , and e n v i ronmenta l aspec ts . P r o j e c t f e a s i b i l i t y does n o t i n c l u d e , i n g e n e r a l , f i n a n c i a l , o r g a n i z a t i o n a l , o r i n s t i t u t i o n a l f e a s i b i l i t y . Ra the r , t h e f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y p r o v i d e s t h e b a s i s upon wh ich f i n a n c i a l arrangements ( e . g . f u n d i n g sources , c o s t - s h a r i n g , bonds, e t c ) , o rgan i z a t i ona 1 arrangements (e g., h i r i ng o f p e r s o n n e l , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e , l e v e l s o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , e t c . ) , o r i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements (e.g. agency r e s p o n s i b i l i t y , i n t e r a g e n c y coo rd i na t i on, e t c .) can be e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e f u t u r e . The f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy shou ld a l s o i n c l u d e :

* i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a s e l e c t e d p r o j e c t - - t h e b e s t a l t e r n a t i v e p lan - -and s e t t i n g t h e main p r o j e c t parameters t o j u s t i f y and s u p p o r t t h e p r o j e c t .

* g e n e r a t i o n o f a p r o j e c t

-55-

f e a s i b i l i t y s ta temen t . The " s t a t e m e n t o f f e a s i b i l i t y - - i n - c l u d i n g t e c h n i c a l , economic, and e n v i r o n m e n t a l f e a s i b i l i t y - - o f t e n does n o t i n c l u d e f i n a n c i a l f e a s i b i l i t y recommendations w i t h r e g a r d t o o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and i n s t i t u t i o n a l aspec ts o f t h e p r o j e c t .

C) Output from Stage 4 needed for project study , etc.).

The o u t p u t f r o m Stage 4 makes p o s s i b l e t h e f i n a l des ign o f t h e p r o j e c t . I t i nc 1 udes t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f a l l parameters needed f o r t h e des ign , such as t h e q u a n t i t y o f water t o be r e l e a s e d , t h e demand as f u n c t i o n o f t ime , and t h e l o c a t i o n and s i zes o f r e s e r v o i r s , cana ls , c o n d u i t s , and t h e l i k e . The o u t p u t a l s o p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n on o p e r a t i o n a l r u l e s and u s u a l l y i d e n t i f i e s and assesses a1 1 t h e l a r g e - s c a l e impacts r e s u l t i n g f rom t h e p r o j e c t . I t does n o t e n t a i l a d e t a i l e d d e s i g n o f t h e r e q u i r e d s t r u c t u r e s , a l t h o u g h t h e c o s t e s t i m a t e s and t h e i r d imens ions shou ld be known r o u g h l y . T h e r e f o r e t h e o u t p u t i nc 1 udes:

* f i n a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e main p r o j e c t parameters and p roper t i es

* f i n a l e s t i m a t e o f p r o j e c t commiss ion ing s t a t e

* f i n a l e s t i m a t e o f p r o j e c t impacts ( cos ts , b e n e f i t s , r i s k s , t r a d e - o f f s , e t c . ) i n c l u d i n g cash f l o w and r e t u r n e s t i m a t e s

>k recommendation f o r p r o j e c t

5.3 Sources, quality and categories of Stage 4 data needs

A l t h o u g h Stage 2 o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s - - d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and p r o c e s s i n g - - h a s been i d e n t i f i e d as t h e s t a g e d u r i n g wh ich d a t a a c t i v i t i e s a r e emphasized, t h e

p l a n n e r s c o n t i n u a l l y d i s c o v e r d u r i n g l a t e r s tages t h a t a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n i s needed and some r e s p o n s i v e a c t i o n must b e t a k e n . A t one ext reme, a d a t a c o l l e c t i o n p r o c e s s m i g h t be i n i t i a t e d a t t h i s s t a g e . A t t h e o t h e r ex t reme, an a r t i f i c i a l o r s y n t h e t i c d a t a base m i g h t be g e n e r a t e d f rom o t h e r sources hav i ng s i m i l a r

( r e g i ona 1 , c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s t r u c t u r a l , soc ioeconomic, e t c . ) .

I n genera l , d a t a a r e needed i n more d e t a i l i n Stage 4 t h a n i n Stage 3. I n a d d i t i o n , d a t a c o l l e c t e d i n Stage 2 and n o t used i n Stage 3 o f t e n become c r i t i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t i n Stage 4. T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e f o r d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f a s p e c i f i c s i t e s e l e c t i o n o r i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f secondary and t e r t i a r y soc ioeconomic e f f e c t s t h a t a r e i m p l i e d by a s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t s e l e c t i o n .

A t Stage 4 o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess , a1 1 i n f o r m a t i o n sources- -agenc ies a t a l l l e v e l s , c i v i c groups, and p r i v a t e sources--must be used i n o r d e r t o have access t o t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a . P r o c e s s i n g d a t a f rom d i f f e r e n t d a t a banks th rough t h e use o f computer f a c i l i t i e s i s becoming t h e r u l e r a t h e r than t h e e x c e p t i o n . Most i m p o r t a n t l y , assumpt ions a b o u t c o n j e c t u r a l d a t a must be w e l l e x p l a i n e d , j u s t i f i e d , and documented.

The most c r i t i c a l d a t a needs a t t h i s s t a g e concern t h e f i n a n c i a l , p o l i t i c a l , l e g a l - r e g u l a t o r y , o r g a n i z a t i o n a l , and pe rsonne l aspec ts .

fa) Financial

When sever a 1 1 eve1 s o f government a r e i n v o l v e d , knowledge o f t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f unds f r o m each l e v e l o f government i s needed. I n t h e U . S . , f o r example, f e d e r a l , s t a t e , l o c a l , and o f t e n r e g i o n a l f u n d i n g s may be r e q u i r e d o r a r e a v a i l a b l e . F u r t h e r m o r e , i n f o r m a t i o n on approaches t o

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c o s t - s h a r i n g and r e v e n u e - s h a r i n g and t h e i r impact on t h e p l a n c o u l d be e s s e n t i a l t o t h e u l t i m a t e success o f t h e p l a n i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . O f t e n , t h e r e a r e p l a n s f o r one l e v e l o f government (e.g., s t a t e ) t h a t a r e mandated by a n o t h e r l e v e l o f government (e.g. . f e d e r a l ) . ''Who s h o u l d pay f o r what?" i s a c h a l l e n g i n g q u e s t i on, and i n f o r m a t i o n on r e l a t e d and r e l e v a n t precedence m i g h t be v e r y h e l p f u l .

lbl Polit ical

P l t h o u c h knowledge about a re; i on'.s o r bas i n ' s hydro1 ogy, gecmsr phc 1 ogy . soc ioeconomic deveioprnent, and a m y r i a d of o t h e r seen:: ng 1 y i m p e r a t i v e f a c t o r s dominate t h e p r o c e s s o f water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g , i t i s o f t e n P O : i t i c a l knowledge--abow? t h e p o ! i t i c a l c l i m a t e , t h e p o l i t i c a l w i l i t o s u p p o r t a p l a n , and t h e p o l i t i c a l c o a l i t i o n s t h a t can b e f o r m e d - - t h a t i s e s s e n t i a l t o t h e success o f f a i l u r e o f a p l a n . P o l i t i c a l w i l l i s e s s e n t i a l f o r t h e s u p p o r t o f a p l a n , and knowing how t o marsha l such p o l i t i c a l w i l l shou!d be p a r t o f t h e agenda o f t h e p l a n n i n s t e a r . Because a s e l e c t c ~ o u p can b i c l c k a p i a n , a much l a r g e r consersdc amsng t h e t r u e s t a k e - h o l d e r s , i n f l u e n t i a l g roups , and a f f e c t e d p a r t i e s s h o u l d be sought t o r e a l i z e t h e success of a p l a n . UndeTstanding t h e p o l i t i c a l env i ronment and a p p r e c i a t i n g t h e p o s i t i v e e f f e c t o f t h e c o n s e n s u s - b u i l d i n g p r o c e s s w i t h i n t h e p o l i t i c a l system s h o u l d be h i g h o r t h e p l a n n i n s agenda.

/ c l Legal - Re_ou/atory

Knor;ledge o f t h e v a r i o u s i e g a l and r e g u l a t o r y systems t h a t a f f e c t and a r e a f f e c t e d by a p l a n i s needed. Cons i der t h e m u l t i r e g u l a t o r y f rameworks a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l o c a l government w i t h i t s v a r i o u s m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ,

c o u n t i e s , d i s t r i c t s , and r e g i o n a l agenc ies . The p l a n n e r s , i n t h e i r s e l e c t i o n o f t h e f i n a l p l a n , must be c o g n i z a n t o f t h e mutua l imp1 i c a t i o n s and impacts between t h e s e m u t l i r e g u l a t o r y f rameworks and t h e s e l e c t e d p l a n as such. For example, d i f f e r e n c e s i n z o n i n g codes among a d j a c e n t d i s t r i c t s may p r o v e t o b e a major impediment t o an i m p o r t a n t component o f t h e p l a n .

I d i Organizational

The v a r i ous l e v e l s o f g o v e r n m e n t - - l o c a l , s t a t e , r e g i o n a l , and f e d e r a l - - n e e d t o deve lop t h e appropr i a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n and adm i n i s t r a t i v e t o e x e r c i s e t h e a u t h o r i t y f o r t h e management o f t h e water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t p r o v i d e d by t h e l e g a l - r e g u i a t o r y f ramework. The p l a n n e r s s h o u l d u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e i r p l a n r e q u i r e s t h e development o f such an a p p r o p r i a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e . Thus, i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d on t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l aspect a t t h i s s t a g e o f the p l a n n i n g process can p r o v e t o b e e x t r e m e l y b e n e f i c i a l t o a l l concerned p a r t i e s . I n p a r t i c u l a r , when the p l a n n e r s c o n s i d e r t h e h i e r a r c h i ca 1 d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g s t r u c t u r e w i t h i n wh ich t h e p l a n i s developed, t h e i r knowledge a b o u t t h e c e n t r a l i z e d and/or d e c e n t r a l i zed r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s among t h e v a r i o u s p a r t i e s can o n l y be h e l p f u l t o the p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s .

s t r u c t b r e

le) Personnel

Comprehensive p l a n n i n g f o r a r i v e r b a s i n or o t h e r water r e s o u r c e n e c e s s i t a t e s comprehensive p l a n n i n g f o r q i l a i i f i e d and t r a i n e d p e r s o n n e l . Pas t e x p e r i e n c e shows t h a t one way t o ensure a more harmonious i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e p l a n i s t o make e a r l y p r e p a r a t i o n f o r q u a l i f i e d s t a f f t o f i l l t h e v a r i e t y o f needed p o s i t i o n s , b o t h

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s c i e n t i f i c - t e c h n i c a l (e .g. , h y d r o l o g i s t s , eng i neer s , s o i l - s c i e n t i s t s , mode 1 e r s and computer a n a l y s t s , agronomis ts , e t c . ) admi n i s t r a t i ve- 1 ega 1 (e.g., managers, 1 awyer s , economists , p l a n n e r s , c l e r k s , e t c . ) . The f a c t t h a t i t takes c o n s i d e r a b l e e f f o r t t o p repare an adequate s t a f f r e q u i r e s t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f such personne l be sought by t h e p l a n n e r s a t t h i s s tage o f t h e p l a n n i n g process . A c a r e f u l l y p lanned t r a i n i n g program must be proposed as p a r t o f t he t o t a l package.

and

5.4 The role of modeling, simulation and optimization

Simple and aggregate models a r e used i n Stage 3 . Thus, i n t r a d i n g - o f f between accuracy on t h e one hand and compu ta t i ona l f e a s i b i l i t y . on t h e o t h e r , t h e p lanner o f t e n t i p s the b a l a n c e toward t h e l a t t e r i n o rde r t o genera te f a s t , reasonab le , and p l a u s i b l e r e s u l t s . I n Stage 4, however, t h e b a l a n c e shou ld be moved i n favour a g r e a t accuracy and more d e t a i 1 . Fur thermore , Stage 4 necess i t a t e s t h e use o f a1 1 a v a i l a b l e s y s t e m a t i c procedures o f systems a n a l y s i s i n o r d e r t o r e f i n e , augment, and a d o p t t h e models employed. Some s p e c i f i c s u g g e s t i o n s about how t o do t h e s e f o l l o w :

To r e f i n e : M o d i f y c o e f f i c i e n t s and/ o r d e l e t e c o n s t r a i n t s w i t h o u t chang i ng t h e bas i c s t r u c t u r e .

To augment: Use o t h e r models. For example, use s i m u l a t i o n t o t e s t and v e r i f y t h e r e s u l t s o f o p t i m i z a t i o n . The o t h e r models may now i n c l u d e aspects n o t p r e v i o u s l y c o n s i d e r e d e x p l i c i t l y , such as a d e t a i l e d m o d e l i n g o f t h e o p e r a t i o n , wh ich appeared i n a s i m p l i f i e d fo rm e a r l i e r .

To adopt: Use models developed by o t h e r s , o r compare r e s u l t s w i t h those genera ted b y o t h e r s .

An i m p o r t a n t r e q u i s i t e f o r t h e v i a b l e use of models i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s i s t h e p e r c e p t i o n (by t h e p l a n n e r s and t h e p u b l i c ) o f t h e i r c r e d i b i l i t y (see a l s o S e c t i o n 4 . 4 ) . The assurance t h a t model r e s u l t s a r e r e l i a b l e i s i m p e r a t i v e i n Stage 4 . I f t h e models s u f f e r s f rom f u z z i n e s s i n S tage 3, t h i s w i l l n o t as a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t t h e soundness o f t h e f i n a l p r o j e c t s e l e c t i o n as i f t h i s o c c u r s i n Stage 4. Most i m p o r t a n t l y , t h e e n t i r e s t u d y can l o s e t h e p a r t i c i p a t o r y s u p p o r t o f t h e concerned agenc ies and t h e p u b l i c i f t h e models and procedures used a r e p e r c e i v e d as l a c k i n g i n c r e d i b i l i t y and s c i e n t i f i c g r o u n d i n g .

An i n t e g r a t e d use o f s i m u l a t i o n and o p t i m i z a t i o n has p r o v e n t o be most e f f e c t i v e i n many s t u d i e s and has become t h e p r e f e r r e d modus operand i o f systems a n a l y s i s p r a c t i t i o n e r s . Depending on t h e spec i f i c needs o f a model, o p t i m i z a t i o n and s i m u l a t i o n a r e r e l a t e d i n one o f t h e f o l l o w i n g ways :

i ) O p t i m i z a t i o n may be f o l l o w e d by s i m u l a t i o n .

i i ) O p t i m i z a t i o n may be i n c l u d e d i n s i m u l a t i o n .

i i ) S i m u l a t i o n may be used f o r model q u a n t i f i c a t i o n ( p r i m a r i l y t h e q u a n t i f i c a t i o n o f o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s ) and f o l l o w e d by o p t i m i z a t i o n .

v) S i m u l a t i o n may be used as a s e a r c h t e c h n i q u e f o r i d e n t i f y i n g an optimum.

The use o f s i m u l a t i o n as a search t e c h n i q u e o f t e n o c c u r s i n complex problems w i t h a l a r g e number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s and w i t h l i m i t e d a v a i l a b l e comput ing f a c i l i t i e s . The e x c l u s i v e use o f o p t i m i z a t i o n ( i n t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f o p e r a t i o n a l r u l e s ) o f t e n r e q u i r e s t h a t t h e s t o c h a s t i c i t y i s d e a l t w i t h i n an a p p r o x i m a t e way. T h i s p rob lem may be a l l e v i a t e d b y t h e use o f s t o c h a s t i c hyd ro logy , I .e.,

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s i m u l a t i o n o f system o p e r a t i o n based on s y n t h e t i c h y d r o l o g y and o t h e r a r t i f i c i a l l y genera ted d a t a .

5.5 Risk and uncertainty

The f a c t t h a t w a t e r resources sys tems- -pub l i c and p r i v a t e - - a r e p lanned, des igned, c o n s t r u c t e d , ope ra ted , and m o d i f i e d under c o n d i t i o n s o f r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y necess i t a t e s t h a t t h e numerous e lements o f r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y be c o n s i d e r e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e p l a n n i n g process , and p a r t i c u l a r l y d u r i n g t h e development o f f i n a l s t u d y r e s u l t s .

R i s k i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f s u f f e r i n g harm, l o s s , danger, f a i l u r e , o r o t h e r adve rse e f f e c t s as a r e s u l t o f t a k i n g an a c t i o n o r a sequence of a c t i o n s . I t c o n s i s t s o f t h e f o l l o w i n g two b a s i c e lements : ( i ) magn i tude o f t h e r i s k and ( i i ) t h e l i k e l i h o o d i t w i l l cause harm or adve rse e f f e c t s . To d e s c r i b e a r i s k y s i t u a t i o n , we must t h e r e f o r e adequa te l y d e s c r i b e t h e s e two b a s i c e lements .

The U . S . Water Resources tounc i 1 (1 980) i den t i f i es two ma jo r sources o f r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y :

1 . R i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y a r i s e from measurement e r r o r s and from t h e

complex n a t u r a l , s o c i a l , and. economic s i t u a t i o n s . I f t h e a n a l y s t i s u n c e r t a i n because t h e d a t a a r e i m p e r f e c t o r t h e a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s c rude , t h e p l a n i s s u b j e c t t o measurement e r r o r s , and t h e s e o b v i o u s l y can be m i n i m i z e d by improved d a t a and r e f i n e d a n a l y t i c t echn iques .

u n d e r l y i n g v a r i a b i l i t y of

2 . Some f u t u r e demographic, econom i c , h y d r o l o g i c , and m e t e o r o l o g i c a l e v e n t s a r e e s s e n t i a l l y u n p r e d i c t a b l e because t h e y a r e s u b j e c t t o random i n f l u e n c e s . The a n a l y s t must dec i de whether t h e randomness can b e d e s c r i b e d by some p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n . I f t h e r e i s a h i s t o r i c a l d a t a base t h a t i s a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e f u t u r e , d i s t r i b u t i o n s can be d e s c r i b e d o r app rox ima ted by

o b j e c t i v e techn iques . I f no such h i s t o r i c a l d a t a base e x i s t s , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f random fu tu re events can be d e s c r i b e d s u b j e c t i v e 1 y , based up0 b e s t a v a i l a b l e i n s i g h t judgment.

I t i s o f t e n use f u 1 d i s t i n g u i s h among t h e f o l t h r e e r i s k - r e l a t e d s i t u a t i o n s r e f l e c t t h e d i f f e r e n t l e v e i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e f o r assessment and management:

t h e and

t o ow i ng

t h a t s o f

r i s k

r i s k s i t u a t i o n s - - s i t u a t i o n s i n wh ich t h e p o t e n t i a l outcome can be d e s c r i bed by reasonab l y we l l -known p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s .

i m p r e c i s i o n s i t u a t i o n s - - s i t u a t i o n s h a v i n g p o t e n t i a l ou tcomes t h a t cannot be descr i bed i n terms o f o b j e c t i v e l y known p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s , b u t wh ich can be e s t i ma t e d b y s u b j e c t i ve p robab i 1 i t i e s

u n c e r t a i n t y s i t u a t i o n s - - s i t u a t i o n s i n wh ich p o t e n t i a l outcomes canno t be d e s c r i b e d i n terms o f o b j e c t i v e l y c r s u b j e c t i v e l y known p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s

These a r e n o t mere l y a b s t r a c t d e f i n i t i o n s ; r a t h e r , each s i t u a t i o n r e q u i r e s t h e use o f d i f f e r e n t approaches and t o o l s f o r q u a n t i f i c t i o n o r e v a l u a t i o n purposes.

The t o t a l r i s k i s s u e i s addressed t h r o u g h t h e p rocess o f r i s k assessment and management. To p e r f o r m t h e comp le te p rocess o f r i s k assessment f o r a p a r t i c u l a r problem, t h e f o l l o w i n g t a s k s need t o be c a r r i e d o u t (Haimes 1981) :

1) R i s k i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , wh ich i n v o l v e s i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t he na tu re , t ypes , and sources o f r i s k s and u n c e r t a i n t i e s . I n g e n e r a l , t h e major t ypes o f r i s k s a r e f i n a n c i a l , h e a l t h - r e l a t e d , e n v i r o n m e n t a l ,

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t e c h n i c a l , and techno (e.g., per fo rmance s u p p o r t a b i 1 i t y ) . p r o d u c t o f t h i s t a s k comple te d e s c r i p t i o n o f even ts and elements o f conce rn a l o n g w i - th causa t i ve f a c t o r s mechanisms.

The

o g i c a l and end

i s a r i s k y ma j o r t h e i r

and

2) R i s k q u a n t i f i c a t i o n , wh ich e n t a i l s f o r m u l a t i n g a p p r o p r i a t e measures o f r i s k and e s t i m a t i n g t h e l i k e l i h o o d ( p r o b a b i l i t y ) o f occu r rence o f a l l consequences a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r i s k y e v e n t s as w e l l as t h e magn i tude o f such consequences.

3) R i s k e v a l u a t i o n , which i n c l u d e s se 1 e c t i on o f e v a l u a t i o n p rocedures (e.g. o p t i m i z i n g expec ted v a 1 ue, t r a d e - o f f ana 1 ys i s) and a n a l y s i s o f v a r i ous poss i b 1 e impacts o f r i s k y even ts .

4) R i s k acceptance and a v e r s i o n , wh ich r e q u i r e dec i s ion -mak ing r e g a r d i n g b o t h an a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l o f r i s k and i t s e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n . T h i s phase o f r i s k assessment a l s o i n v o l v e s t h e development o f r i s k c o n t r o l ( i . e . , measures t o reduce o r p r e v e n t r i s k ) .

5 ) R i s k management, wh ich i n v o l v e s t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f p o l i c i e s , t h e development o f r i s k - c o n t r o l o p t i o n s ( i .e. methods t o reduce or p r e v e n t r i s k ) , and e x e c u t i o n o f such p o l i c y o p t i o n s .

The l a s t two s tages o f t h e r i sk -assessmen t p rocess - - r i sk acceptance and a v e r s i o n and r i s k management--overlap t o a l a r g e e x t e n t and r e q u i r e the s u b j e c t i v e j udgmen t o f t h e a p p r o p r i a t e dec is ion-makers i n t r a d i n g - o f f t h e noncommensurate b e n e f i c i a l and adverse consequences r e s u l t i n g f rom t h e u1 t imate "accep tab le r i sk" d e c i s i o n . The e x i s t e n c e o f t hese fundamental t r a d e - o f f s among c o n f l i c t i n g and noncommensurate m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s and a t t r i b u t e s demands t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f r i s k management as an i n t e g r a l p a r t of

t h e o v e r a 1 1 dec i s process--wh i ch i s t h e premi se assumed he re .

I t I S i n s t r u c t a r t i c u l a t e , a t t h i s s

on-mak i ng mpera t i v e

v e t o age, t h e

d i f f e r e n c e between t h e p rocess o f r i s k assessment and t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s o f r i s k assessment.

The p rocess o f r i s k assessment i s t h e a g g r e g a t i o n o f i n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s i n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f r i s k assessment approaches. (These i n t e r a c t i o n s i n v o l v e t r a d e - o f f a n a l y s i s and t h e e x e r c i s e o f v a l u e judgments . )

The me thodo log ies o f r i s k assessment a r e t h e t e c h n i q u e s u t i l i z e d i n a s c i e n t i f i c approach t o e s t ima t i ng p r o b a b i l i t i e s and p e r f o r m i ng r i s k assessment ( e x c l u d i n g t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f v a l u e

judgments ) --an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f t h e p rocess .

I t i s a l s o n o t e w o r t h y t h a t t h e r i s k assessment p r o c e s s - - t h e s e t t i n g o f v a 1 ue judgments and q u a n t i f i c t i o n - - i s c r i t i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t , because i t f a c i l i t a t e s t h e e d u c a t i o n a l p rocess o f t h e a n a l y s t s and dec i s ion -makers and t h e i r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s . I n turn, t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s s e r v e as i m p o r t a n t s t i m u l i for d e c i s i o n ( i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e q u a n t i f i c a t i o n o f i n f o r m a t i o n and i t s t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ' i n t o i n t e l l i g e n c e ) , even i f t h e me thodo log ies themse lves a r e n o t v e r y good. C l e a r l y , m e t h o d o l o g i e s a r e a necessary c o n d i t i o n f o r a c r e d i b l e and v i a b l e r i s k assessment p rocess , b u t a r e n o t , b y any means, s u f f i c i e n t .

T h i s p rocess can h e l p t o i d e n t i f y and a r t i c u l a t e t h e i s s u e s upon w h i c h t h e r e i s agreement among dec is ion -makers , and a l s o t h o s e f o r wh ich t h e r e i s no agreement. The p rocess a l s o h e l p s t o make t h e i m p l i c i t e x p l i c i t . T h i s outcome, however, may embarrass dec i s ion -makers under c e r t a i n c i r c u m s t a n c e s .

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The u l t i m a t e e f f i c a c y o f r i s k assessment i n wa te r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g and management can be measured by t h e a s s i s t a n c e i t p r o v i d e s p l a n n e r s and t h e dec i s ion -makers i n v o l v e d i n p l a n n i n g and/or management. I t r e n d e r s t h i s a s s i s t a n c e i n t h e f o l l o w i n g ways:

(a) I t i d e n t i f i e s t h e sou rces o f r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h exogenous v a r i a b l e s and e v e n t s d e r i v e d f r o m demographic, econom i c , h y d r o l o g i c , m e t e o r o l o g i c a l , e n v i r o n m e n t a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l , and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s .

(b) I t q u a n t i f i e s t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e randomness o f t h e s e exogenous v a r i a b l e s and e v e n t s t o t h e degree p o s s i b l e and f e a s i b l e , g i v e n t h e c o n s t r a i n t s on d a t a and i n f o r m a t i o n .

(c) I t q u a n t i f i e s , t o t h e degree p o s s i b l e and f e a s i b l e , t h e p o t e n t i a l o r p r o b a b l e impac ts t h a t r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y and t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d t r a d e - o f f s w i l l have on a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s .

(d) I t f a c i l i t a t e s t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p rocess by e n a b l i n g dec i s ion -makers t o make t h e u tmos t s c i e n t i f i c use of i n f o r m a t i o n abou t r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y r e l a t e d t o t h e t r a d e - o f f and d e c i s i o n a n a l y s i s o f human f a c t o r s .

5.6 Sensitivity analysis

S e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s i s an i n t e g r a l and i m p o r t a n t p a r t o f S tage 4 o f t h e wa te r r e s o u r c e s p rocess because o f t h e i n h e r e n t randomness o f h y d r o l o g i c and soc ioeconomic e v e n t s . I n t h e r e v i s e d P r i n c i p l e s and S tandards f o r Water and R e l a t e d Land Resources P l a n n i n g , Leve l -C (Federa l R e g i s t e r 1980), t h e U.S .

Water Resources C o u n c i l s t a t e s : “The p l a n n e r ’ s p r i m a r y r o l e i n d e a l i n g w i t h r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y i s t o i d e n t i f y t h e a reas of s e n s i t i v i t y and d e s c r i b e them c l e a r l y so t h a t d e c i s i o n s can be made w i t h knowledge

o f t h e degree o f r e l i a b i l i t y o f a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n . ” The ideas and methodology advocated i n t h i s s e c t i o n a r e b o t h i n congruence w i t h and i n s u p p o r t o f t h e above s ta temen t . W h i l e t h e r e i s near unanirni t y among w a t e r p l a n n e r s r e g a r d i n g t h e impera t i veness o f s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s , t h e ways and means o f conduct i ng sens i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s and i n t e g r a t i n g i t i n t o t h e o v e r a l l s t u d y o r p l a n a r e s t i l l deba tab le . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e t r e n d has been t o u s e s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s as a p o s t - s t u d y and e x t r i n s i c e v a l u a t i o n (o f t h e s t u d y ) , r a t h e r t h a n as a genu ine component o f t h e s t u d y i n te rms o f t r a d e - o f f a n a l y s i s o f t h e r i s k s , c o s t , and b e n e f i t s - - a s i s proposed he re .

The use o f comb i ned u n c e r t a i n t y and s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s i n water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g has ga ined some a t t e n t i o n i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e i n r e c e n t yea rs . The u n c e r t a i n t y s e n s i t i v i t y index method ( U S I M ) deve loped by Haimes and H a l l (1977) i s such an example. I t can b e shown t h a t a bus iness -as -usua l p o l i c y ( i g n o r i n g u n c e r t a i n t y and s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s ) can be t o o c o s t l y i n te rms o f d e v i a t i o n f r o m a c h i e v i n g t h e o r i g i n a l mode-1 o b j e c t i v e s . The U S I M assesses, i n a mu 1 t i o b j e c t i v e framework , t h e t r a d e - o f f s between t h e c o s t o f added assurance and t h e t h r e a t s posed by uncer t a i n t y .

The d e f i n i t i o n o f r i s k i n t h e sense o f a n o b j e c t i v e t o be m in im ized appears t o b e s imp le , b u t t h i s i s d e c e p t i v e s i nce t h e m i n i m i z a t i o n o f r i s k i s i n f a c t ex t reme ly complex. A t q u e s t i o n i s u s u a l l y a l o n g l i s t o f u n d e s i r a b l e outcomes and comb ina t ions o f outcomes, each w i t h a n o n - n e g l i g i b l e p r o b a b i l i t y o f o c c u r r i n g .

Wh i le i n some cases a s p e c i f i c q u a n t i t a t i y e r i s k index can be d e f i n e d and used as an o b j e c t i v e , more o f t e n t h e r e w i l l be an excess i ve number o f such i n d i c e s . I n such cases , i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t c e r t a i n r i s k - r e l a t e d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e sys tem can be i d e n t i f i e d , q u a n t i f i e d , and used t o se rve as a

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s i n g l e measure o f many o f t h o s e i n d i v i d u a l r i s k o b j e c t i v e s . Among these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , s e n s i t i v i t y - - w h i c h r e l a t e s changes i n t h e sys tem's per formance index (what we have been c a l l i n g o u t p u t ) t o p o s s i b l e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e d e c i s i o n v a r i a b l e s , c o n s t r a i n t l e v e l s , and u n c o n t r o l l e d parameters (mode 1 c o e f f i c i e n t s ) - - i s p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t .

5.7 Uncertainties associated with goals and objectives

Goals and o b j e c t i v e s - - o n c e adopted by the p l a n n i n g team--become t h e dominant f o r c e t h a t d r i v e s t h e p l a n n i n g process . Goa 1 s a r e pos i t i v e a t t r i b u t e s o r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s t r i v e d f o r by i n d i v i d u a l s o r s o c i e t y . Goals o f i n d i v i d u a l s and s o c i e t y a r e an unbounded s e t ; i . e . , any s t a t e d goa l i s i n c l u d e d w i t h i n a t l e a s t one more-encompassing g o a l , and t h e r e i s a s e t o f more n a r r o w l y d e f i n e d g o a l s w i t h i n i t (TECHOM 1 9 7 4 ) . Two m a j o r sources of u n c e r t a i n t y r e l a t e d t o p l a n n i n g g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s s h o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d and addressed a t t h i s s tage o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . These a r e ( i ) p e r c e p t i o n s o f l ong - te rm s o c i e t a l g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s and ( i i) p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e l ong - te rm ava i l a b i 1 i t y o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l and n o n t e c h n o l o g i c a l measures (means) w i t h wh ich t h e p l a n n i n g g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s can be ach ieved.

I t i s w o r t h n o t i n g t h a t s o c i e t a l g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s a r e i n t r i n s i c a l l y h i e r a r c h i c a l - - a f a c t t h a t m a g n i f i e s what the u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h each subgoal and s u b o b j e c t i v e c o n t r i b u t e s t o t h e u n c e r t a i n t y o f t h e o v e r a l l s o c i e t a l goa ls and o b j e c t i v e s . Consider , f o r example, t h a t enhancing economic o p p o r t u n i t y i s an impor tan t s o c i e t a l goal i n t h e p l a n n i n g process (TECHOM 1974). The f o l l o w i n g many c o n s i t u t e a s e t o f s u b o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s g o a l :

( i ) enhanc i ng p resen t 1 i v i n g s t a n d a r d s

( i i ) enhancing f u t u r e 1 i v i n g s tandards

( i i i ) enhanc ing equal i t y o f economic o p p o r t u n i t y .

Fur thermore , s u b - s u b o b j e c t i v e s f o r ( i ) may b e

( i ) i n c r e a s i n g income

( i i ) i n c r e a s i n g consumpt ion o f goods and s e r v i c e s

( i i i ) i n c r e a s i n g l e i s u r e t i m e

( i v ) i n c r e a s i n g s t a b i l i t y o f t h e economy

A f u r t h e r look a t t h e h i e r a r c h y o f s u b - s u b o b j e c t i v e s f o r ( i v ) above may be

( i ) i n c r e a s i n g t h e g rowth r a t e o f per c a p i t a income

( i i ) d e c r e a s i n g t h e r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n n a t i o n w i d e

( i i i ) r e d u c i n g p r e s e n t unemployment

( i v ) r e d u c i n g p r e s e n t b u s i n e s s f a i l u r e ,

and so on.

The p o i n t i s t h a t t h e r e a r e m y r i a d sources o f e r r o r s and u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n t h e d a t a base, t h e m o d e l l i n g assumpt ions, t h e models themselves, and human p e r c e p t i o n s ; moreover, these e r r o r s and u n c e r t a i n t i e s a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l l l e v e l s o f g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s , wh ich means t h a t t h e p l a n n i n g team must make a c o n c e r t e d e f f o r t t o account f o r them, e s p e c i a l l y d u r i n g t h e s tage o f f i n a l p l a n s e l e c t i o n . T h i s a c c o u n t a b i l i t y can be a c h i e v e d

q u a n t i t a t i v e - e m p i r i c a l methods o r h e u r i s t i c - n o r m a t i v e approaches, o r t h rough an a p p r o p r i a t e c o m b i n a t i o n o f b o t h .

t h rough t h e use o f

The same argument a p p l i e s t o u n c e r t a i n t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f 1 ong- te rm t e c h n o l o g i c a l and n o n t e c h n o l o g i c a l means o f a c h i e v i n g t h e p l a n n i n g g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e f o r t h e

assessment o f f u t u r e t e c h n o l o g y and i t s c o s t , r e 1 i a b i 1 i t y , and a c c e p t a b i l i t y . Any one o f numerous examples, f rom DDT t o a s b e s t o s t o s o l i d - w a s t e d i s p o s a l , can s e r v e as a case i n p o i n t .

Thus, t h e p l a n n i n g team shou ld assess and eva 1 u a t e t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e goa 1 s upon wh i ch t h e se 1 ec t e d p l a n ( s ) a r e grounded and w i t h t h e ways and means (measures) o f r e a l i z i n g these g o a l s .

5.8 Impact analysis and policy analysis

An i m p o r t a n t goa l o f systems a n a l y s i s i s t h e r e d u c t i o n o f un i n t e n d e d o r undeserved consequences. Impact a n a l y s i s , w h i c h i s t h e p a r t o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s concerned w i t h these i ssues, c o n t r i b u t e s t o t h e achievement o f t h i s g o a l by t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , e v a l u a t i o n , and a l l e v i a t i o n o f p r o j e c t e d adverse e f f e c t s .

W h i l e t h e p l a n n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s i n Stage 3 a r e screened on t h e b a s i s o f a g g r e g a t e d a t a and s i m p l i f i e d system r e p r e s e n t a t i o n , t h e l e v e l o f a c c u r a c y a t t h a t s t a g e does n o t a l l o w t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f a l l p r i m a r y and secondary impacts i n s u f f i c i e n t d e t a i l .

However, i n Stage 4, t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l , economic, and s o c i a l impacts o f a few s e l e c t e d a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e c o n s i d e r e d i n more dep th . Severa l systems a n a l y s i s m e t h o d o l o g i e s a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r impact and p o l i c y ana lyses , i n c l u d i n g t h e L e o p o l d m a t r i x and t h e r n u l t i o b j e c i v e m u l t i s t a g e impact a n a l y s i s method (Gomide and Haimes 1984). G e n e r a l l y , impact and p o l i c y a n a l y s e s can be c a r r i e d o u t on two separa te , a l b e i t somehow o v e r l a p p i n g , l e v e l s . One l e v e l o f a n a l y s i s i s e n d o g e n o u s - - p e r t i n e n t t o t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s system models used i n t h e p l a n n i n g . T h i s l e v e l i n c l u d e s t h e s e n s i t i v i t y and u n c e r t a i n t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e m o d e l e r s ' assumpt ions about t h e mode 1 s and t h e i r s t r u c t u r e , t o p o l o g y , parameters , d a t a bases,

o p t i m i z a t i o n techn iques , e t c . ~ To some e x t e n t , endogenous impacts a r e c o n t r o l l a b l e by t h e modeler . The o t h e r l e v e l o f a n a l y s i s i s exogenous t o t h e models and c o n c e n t r a t e s on t h e i n f l u e n c e o f v a r i o u s p o l i c y o p t i o n s on t h e o v e r a l l soc ioeconomic env i ronment and how i t i s l i k e l y t o r e a c t t o t h i s i n f l u e n c e . A water p r o j e c t can have an impact on many aspec ts o f s o c i e t y - - e d u c a t i o n , p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , h e a l t h s a f e t y , and economic d i s l o c a t i o n . From a w e l f a r e economic p e r s p e c t i v e , a l a r g e inves tment i n any s e c t o r , i n c l u d i n g t h e w a t e r s e c t o r , p rec ludes funds and resources f rom g o i n g t o o t h e r s e c t o r s i n any g i v e n economy. I n t e r n a t i o n a l f u n d i n g agencies a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y eager t o e v a l u a t e such a s p e c t s b e f o r e they fund l a r g e - s c a l e w a t e r p r o j e c t s . The impact a n a l y s i s component i s p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t i n Stage 4 o f t h e p l a n n i n g process , where eve ry p l a n o r p o l i c y o p t i o n shou ld be accompanied by p o l i c y a n a l y s i s - - s o t h a t a l l f u t u r e and p r o j e c t consequences (bo th f a v o r a b l e and un favourab le ) shou ld b e i d e n t i f i e d , assessed, q u a n t i f i e d ( t o the e x t e n t p o s s i b l e ) , and i n t e g r a t e d w i t h i n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p rocess .

Impact a n a l y s i s and p o l i c y a n a l y s i s shou ld b e p a r t i c u l a r l y focused on t h e r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n making. The p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t y , b y d e f i n i t i o n , r e p r e s e n t s f u t u r i s t i c aspec ts , where e lements o f r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y dominate soc ioeconomic, demographic, e n v i r o n m e n t a l , and i n s t i t u t i o n a l p r o j e c t ions .

5.9 Model(s) as part of the study product

Two c a t e g o r i e s o f models can i d e n t i f i e d as a b y - p r o d u c t o f s tudy :

(a) models used f o r t h e p l a n n

be he

ng process, which may be models developed s p e c i f i c a l l y f o r t h e s tudy o r adopted f rom o t h e r water resources p l a n n i n g s t u d i e s

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(b) models f o r t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e system t o be implemented

These models may be deve loped as p l a n n i n g - f o r - o p e r a t i o n models d u r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g o r d e s i g n process . Each o f t h e two c a t e g o r i e s o f models shou ld be w e l l adapted t o e x i s t i n g computer f a c i l i t i e s and must be p r e s e n t e d t o t h e user i n a form s u i t a b l e f o r p roper and e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n .

I f one accepts t h e premise t h a t p l a n n i n g i s a con t i nuous , never -end ing p r o c e s s f o r w h i c h a p p r o p r i a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l c o n d i t i o n s must be c r e a t e d , t h e n t h e impor tance o f models as a p a r t o f t h e s tudy p r o d u c t cannot be over emphasized. T h i s , i n p a r t i c u l a r , r e f e r s t o l a r g e - s c a l e , l ong - te rm p l a n n i n g s t u d i e s . I n a l l cases, t h e second t ype o f models ment ioned above i s i m p o r t a n t . Making t h e model p a r t o f t h e p r o d u c t means t h a t t h e customer w i l l be i n a p o s i t i o n t o c o n t i n u e t h e work. I n a d d i t i o n , t h i s t r a n s f e r o f t h e model a l s o e n t a i l s t r a n s f e r o f ideas , communicat ion w i t h t h e c l i e n t s a t a ve ry d e t a i l e d l e v e l , c l o s i n g c r e d i b i l i t y gaps, e t c .

The s u b j e c t o f models as p a r t o f t h e s t u d y p r o d u c t b r i n g s t o focus t h e i m p o r t a n t i s s u e s o f t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r , mode4 ma i ntenance, and c l e a r i n g h o u s e s f o r models; t hese issues were addressed i n d e t a i l i n t h e 1982 s tudy by t h e O f f i c e o f

Congress ( U . S . OTA 1982) . Technology Assessment, U . S .

I n l a r g e and c o m p l i c a t e d s t u d i e s , models a r e o f t e n c o n s i d e r e d as p a r t o f t h e p r o j e c t t o be d e l i v e r e d t o the customer, i n c l u d i n g an o p e r a b l e program o f t h e model t h a t i s s u i t a b l e t o the c u s t o m e r ' s computer f a c i l i t i e s . These models may p r o v e t o be most v a l u a b l e t o t h e customer f o r f u t u r e use f o r r e e v a l u a t i o n o f new da ta o r f o r m o d i f i c a t i o n s i n t h e o r i g i n a l p r o j e c t r e q u i r e d by changes i n exogenous v a r i a b l e s o r demand parameters . The model and i t s computer program shou ld be made a v a i l a b l e t o the customer i n what i s

known as u s e r - f r i e n d l y packages and shou ld be w e l l documented, w i t h a l l s t e p s made t r a n s p a r e n t t h rough f l o w c h a r t s , t e x t s t a t e m e n t s , examples, and f i g u r e s .

The t r a i n i n g o f personne l who can o p e r a t e and use these models- -an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f a p r o j e c t ' s p r o d u c t - - i s o f t e n e s s e n t i a l . Sad ly , t h i s o f t e n c o n s t i t u t e s one o f t h e weakest l i n k s i n t h e p l a n n i n g process . I t shou ld b e t h e p r a c t i c e i n development a i d p r o j e c t s t o l e a v e a l l t h e s o f t w a r e t h a t has been used w i t h t h e r e c e i v i n g c o u n t e r p a r t agency, and i n some p r o j e c t s even t h e computers w i l l need t o be s u p p l i e d . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h e t r a i n i n g o f pe rsonne l P l a y s an e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g impor tance. T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y c r i t i c a l (and a l m o s t i m p e r a t i v e ) i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s .

5.10 Planning for operation

P l a n n i n g f o r o p e r a t i o n , w h i c h g e n e r a l l y l eads t o t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f o p e r a t i o n a l r u l e s f o r t h e p r o j e c t , i s perhaps one o f t h e most i m p o r t a n t t e c h n i c a l s t e p s i n t h e p l a n n i n g process . I t i s a l s o t h e most i n t e n s i v e systems a n a l y s i s s t e p , where t h e synerg ism r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e i n t e g r a t i o n o f s i m u l a t i o n and o p t i m i z a t i o n i s most e v i d e n t i n i t s po tency . A l t h o u g h t h e o p e r a t i o n a l r u l e s genera ted i n t h e p l a n n i n g - f o r - o p e r a t i o n s t e p a r e deve loped f o r t h e e n t i r e p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n , t hey a r e n o t expec ted t o be f o l l o w e d t o t h e l e t t e r i n a c t u a l i t y . Indeed, these o p e r a t i o n a l r u l e s a r e o f t e n m o d i f i e d once t h e p r o j e c t i s compl e t e d and t h e r e a l - w o r l d o p e r a t i o n commences. However, t h e y do s e r v e t h e f o l l o w i n g i m p o r t a n t o b j e c t i v e s i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess :

(a) P r o v i d e an a n a l y t i c a l mechanism w i t h w h i c h t o d e v e l o p d e s i g n c r i t e r i a and, t h u s , o p t i m i z e t h e p r o j e c t des i gn.

(b) Enable t h e p l a n n e r - d e s i g n e r t o b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d t h e c o u p l i n g s among t h e v a r i o u s subsystems ( r e s e r v o i r s , r i v e r s , g roundwater systems, e t c .) and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , t o account f o r t h e

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systems c o n s t r a i n t s and systems a t t r i b u t e s .

(c) Enable t h e agency, o r agenc ies , r e s p o n s i b l e f o r o p e r a t i n g t h e p r o j e c t t o i n i t i a t e c o n t r a c t u a l agreements w i t h , f o r example, e l e c t r i c power u t i l i t i e s o r water supp ly d i s t r i c t s . These c o n t r a c t s can be v e r y t i g h t i n t h e i r degrees o f f reedom and, t h e r e f o r e , a w e l l - d e v e l o p e d s e t o f o p e r a t i o n a l r u l e s can become an e s s e n t i a l i n g r e d i e n t i n e n s u r i n g t h e o v e r a l l success o f t h e p r o j e c t .

(d) May l e a d t o d i s c o v e r y o f ma jor gaps i n d a t a needs. I n t h i s case, a new d a t a c o l l e c t i o n p r o c e s s can be s t a r t e d much e a r l i e r t han o t h e r w i s e .

(e) May h e l p t o uncover e a r l y s i g n s o f c o n f l i c t s w i t h o t h e r agenc ies and/or water r e s o u r c e s o p e r a t i n g e n t i t i e s . I n t h i s case, a p r o c e s s o f n e g o t i a t i o n may be i n i t i a t e d and/or some o f t h e p r o j e c t d e s i g n may be a l t e r e d t o accommodate these new1 y d i s c o v e r e d i n s t i t u t i o n a l o r o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c o n s t r a i n t s .

( f ) P r o v i d e an i n d i s p e n s a b l e t r a i n i n g medium f o r t hose who a r e commissioned t o o p e r a t e and manage t h e p r o j e c t when i t i s completed.

I

(9) A s s i s t i n t h e development o f a c o s t - s h a r i n g f o r m u l a f o r t h e p r o j e c t (as a p p r o p r i a t e ) . These and o t h e r o b j e c t i v e s

a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e o p e r a t i o n a l r u l e s d i c t a t e t h a t t h e p l a n n i n g team adhere t o a w e l l - c o n d u c t e d p l a n n i n g - f o r - o p e r a t i o n s t e p i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess .

5.11 Modes of presenting the plan to the decision-makers

A good system s tudy l oses i t s v a l u e when t h e system a n a l y s t i s n o t a b l e t o conv i nce t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r (s) o f t h e s tudy u s e f u l n e s s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r ( s ) shou ld be i n v o l v e d as much as p o s s i b l e i n t h e p r o c e s s

o f mode 1 b u i l d i n g , mode 1 o p t i m i z a t i o n , and mode 1 p r e s e n t a t i o n . The s t u d i e s t h a t have found t h e b e s t acceptance and t h a t a r e a c t u a l l y implemented a r e m o s t l y s t u d i e s i n w h i c h t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s have been so c l o s e l y i n v o l v e d t h a t they i d e n t i f y w i t h them.

However, i n many s t u d i e s such an invo lvement i s n o t p o s s i b l e , and the a n a l y s t has t o c o n v i n c e t h e dec is ion-makers o f t h e e f f i c a c y o f t h e f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t . Most impor tan t i s t h a t t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s tudy must be p r e s e n t e d i n a c l e a r and c o n v i n c i n g manner, w i t h as l i t t l e t e c h n i c a l j a r g o n as p o s s i b l e . The t e x t s h o u l d be accompanied w i t h mean ing fu l and s e l f - e x p l a n a t o r y f i g u r e s . Only f i g u r e s t h a t d i r e c t l y r e l a t e t o t h e r e s u l t s shou ld be shown i n t h e main t e x t , w i t h a l l o t h e r m a t e r i a l r e l e g a t e d t o appendices o r t o s p e c i a l annexes. I n t e r a c t i o n w i t h t h e dec i s i on-maker (s) t h r o u g h o u t t h e e n t i r e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s shou ld be emphas ized- - i f t h e r e i s i n s u f f i c i e n t i n t e r a c t i o n i n Stage 1, even t h e b e s t v i s u a l w i l l n o t h e l p i n Stage 4.

Most s t u d i e s and r e p o r t s w i ' l l be rev iewed b y peop le r e p r e s e n t i n g a w ide spect rum o f backgrounds and i n t e r e s t s . A t e c h n i q u e t h a t can s u f f i c i e n t l y cover such a range i s t o o f f e r t h r e e main segments, each w r i t t e n a t a somewhat d i f f e r e n t 1 eve1 :

( i ) A summary d e v o i d o f t e c h n i c a l j a r g o n can be w r i t t e n t h a t w i l l be s u i t a b l e f o r p o l i t i c i a n s , sen i o r b u r e a u c r a t s , and j o u r n a l i s t s .

( i i ) The main t e x t can be d i r e c t e d toward t h e p r o f e s s i o n a l s , who may have t o a d v i s e b u t who a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e work .

( i i i ) Techn i ca 1 append i ces can be added t h a t a r e aimed a t t hose who e i t h e r a r e a l r e a d y i n v o l v e d i n t h e p r o j e c t o r who may become i n v o l v e d a t a l a t e r s tage.

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For t h i s l a t t e r c a t e g o r y o f t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t s , t h e m a t e r i a l i n t h e appendices must be p r e s e n t e d i n s u f f i c i e n t d e t a i l t o enab le them t o check, v e r i f y , c o n t r a d i c t i f a p p r o p r i a t e , o r change parameter v a l u e s i n f u r t h e r work. A l l t h e s e modes c o n t r i b u t e toward t h e dec i s ion -makers ’ u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e r e s u l t s .

There a re , o f course , c i i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f d e c i s i o n s t h a t must be made- - techn ica l , p o l i t i c a l , e t c . D u r i n g t h e t e c h n i c a l development o f t h e s t u d y , i t wou ld be advantageous t o have d i s c u s s i o n s and sha re t h e p r o g r e s s w i t h t h e i nvo 1 ved dec i s ion -maker . I n most cases, t h e dec is ion-maker w i l l be i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e p l a n n e r has c o n s i d e r e d v a r i o u s o p t i o n s . Another aspec t o f t h e mode o f p r e s e n t a t i o n and communica t ion w i t h t h e dec is ion-maker i nvo 1 ves t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t r a d e - o f f s i n a m u l t i o b j e c t i v e f ramework. W h i l e i t i s p o s s i b l e (and i s j u s t as easy) t o g e n e r a t e t r a d e - o f f s between, say, r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n v i s i t o r / d a y u n i t s and f l o o d damage i n a r e a s o f f 1 ooded 1 and, communicat ion w i t h t h e dec is ion-maker i s g e n e r a l l y mueh e a s i e r and more mean ing fu l i f t h e s e t r a d e - o f f s ake p r e s e n t e d i n te rms, say, o f $ / v i s i t o r - d a y and $ / a c r e ( o f f l o o d e d l a n d ) . I n such a case, t h e c o s t f u n c t i o n measured i n monetary u n i t s w i l l be used as t h e p r i m a r y o b j e c t i v e i n t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f (SWT) method o f t h e - c o n s t r a i n t f o r m u l a t i o n .

Fur thermore, communicat ing a b s o l u t e va lues o f l e v e l s o f o b j e c t i v e s t o t h e dec is ion-makers (such as c o s t , f l o o d damage, r e c r e a t i o n , e tc . ) i s o f t e n n o t as mean ing fu l as i f these r e s u l t s a r e communi c a t e d i n terms o f a pe rcen tage o f a base l e v e l (say, p r e s e n t cond i t i ons) . Then, t h e pe rcen tage o f improvement (o r d e g r a d a t i o n ) can b e j u x t a p o s e d w i t h t h e a b s o l u t e l e v e l s , and t h e dec is ion-maker w i l l be i n a p o s i t i o n t o j u d g e f o r h i m s e l f t h e achievements (or l a c k o f them).

F i n a l l y , t h e use o f computer g r a p h i c s t h r o u g h an i n t e r a c t i v e man-machine mode adds a new d i m e n s i o n t o t h e use o f systems a n a l y s i s i n wa te r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g (see, f o r example, Loucks, K i n d l e r , and Fedra, 1985).

5.12 References

Federa l R e g i s t e r . September 23, 1980, 45(190) : 64391

Gomide, F . , and Y . Y . Haimes. 1984. The mu 1 t i o b j e c t i ve , m u l t i s t a g e impact a n a l y s i s method: T h e o r e t i c a l b a s i s . I E E E T r a n s a c t i o n s on Systems, Man, and C y b e r n e t i c s , SMC-14(1), pp. 88-98.

Haimes, Y . Y . , and W.A. H a l l . 1977. S e n s i t i v i t y , r e s p o n s i v i t y , s t a b i l i t y and i r r e v e r s i b i l i t y a s mu 1 t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s i n c i v i l systems. Advances i n Water Resources, 1 ( 2 ) , pp. 71-81.

Haimes, Y . Y . (ed) . 1981. R i s k - B e n e f i t A n a l y s i s i n Water Resources P l a n n i n g and Management, Plenum, New York and London.

Loucks, D.P., J. K i n d l e r , and K . Fedra . 1985. I n t e r a c t i v e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s m o d e l i n g and model use: An o v e r v i e w . Water Resources Research 1 (21 ) 95-104

TECHCOM--Technical Committee on Water Resources. 1974 Water Resources P l a n n i n g , S o c i a l Goals, and I n d i c a t o r s : M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Development and Emp i rca l T e s t , f o r t h e O f f i c e o f Water Resources Research, U.S. Department o f t h e I n t e r i o r , U tah Water Resources L a b o r a t o r y P u b l i c a t i o n P R W G - 1 3 1 - 1 , Logan, Utah .

U . S . OTA--U.S. O f f i c e o f Techno logy Assessment. 1982. Use o f Models for Water Resources Management, P l a n n i n g and P o l i c y . OTA, Washington, D . C .

U . S . Water Resources C o u n c i l . 1980. P r i n c i p l e s and Standards fo r Water and R e l a t e d Land Resources P 1 ann i ng . Federa l Regi s t e r , September 28, 1980.

6. Developing t h e case studies

The p r e v i o u s chap te rs have d e t a i l e d t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess as a sequence o f i n t e r a c t i n g b u t n e v e r t h e l e s s d i s t i n c t s tages . The s tages p r o v i d e a framework f o r p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g and they can a l s o f u n c t i o n as a framework f o r p r e s e n t i n g r e s u l t s o f t he p l a n n i n g process i n an o r d e r l y f a s h i o n . I n f a c t , i t was t h i s approach t h a t was used when i n f o r m a t i o n was b e i n g ga the red on t h e case s t u d i e s t h a t f o rm t h e Appendix t o t h i s book. A l l members o f t h e w o r k i n g g roup were i n s t r u c t e d t o w r i t e t h e i r case s t u d y r e p o r t s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e scheme l a i d o u t i n F i g . 1 . 1 . T h i s was done t o g i v e t h e r e p o r t s a c e r t a i n u n i f o r m i t y i n s p i t e o f t h e l a r g e d i v e r s i t y rep resen ted b y t h e p r o j e c t s r e p o r t e d upon.

The case s t u d y r e p o r t i n g was f u r t h e r enhanced by s u b d i v i d i n g t h e s tages i n t o more d e t a i l e d c a t e g o r i e s . However, r a t h e r t h a n p r o v i d i n g a more e l a b o r a t e o u t l i n e f o r each o f t h e s t a g e s , i t seemed p r e f e r a b l e t o c a s t t he d i f f e r e n t aspec ts of each s t a g e i n t o q u e s t i o n s t o be answered. A t o t a l o f about t h i r t y q u e s t i o n s was found t o be adequate t o cover a l l s tages , and these a r e l i s t e d i n Appendix I .

6.1 The example case study

To h e l p w i t h t h e w r i t ng p rocess , a n example was p repared t o i l l u s t r a t e how t h e case s t u d es s h o u l d be w r i t t e n and t o g i v e an i dea o f what k i n d they s h o u l d be. I t was apparen t t o t h e w o r k i n g g roup t h a t l a r g e - s c a l e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s on v e r y l a r g e wa te r resources p r o j e c t s a r e o f l e s s i n t e r e s t t o t h e i n tended r e a d e r s h i p o f t h i s book t h a n t h e everyday p r o j e c t s done i n member c o u n t r i e s . I f a case s t u d y shows how u s e f u l systems a n a l y s i s techn iques have been (o r c o u l d have been), a reader may be encouraged t o t r y systems

a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s h i m s e l f . T h i s s o r t o f r e a s o n i n g l e d t o t h e c h o i c e o f t h e example, a s m a l l wa te r r e s o u r c e s development scheme des igned f o r t h e s i n g l e p u r p o s e o f f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n ( w i t h some s i d e b e n e f i t s o f l o w - f l o w augmen ta t i on and r e c r e a t i o n ) . T h i s example (Case Study 1) was worked o u t and s e n t t o a l l members o f t h e w o r k i n g g r o u p t o g u i d e t h e i r own w r i t t e n p r e s e n t a t i o n s .

The c h o i c e o f p r o j e c t s t o be r e p o r t e d upon, however, was l e f t t o t h e members o f t h e w o r k i n g group, and t h u s a hea l t h y m ix o f cases was o b t a i n e d . They range f r o m a r e g i o n a l (Level B) s tudy from t h e U . S . (Case S tudy 4) t o a n a l m o s t p u r e l y h y d r o l o g i c a l p r e l i m i n a r y s tudy done i n Denmark (Case Study 7 ) . T a b l e 6 . 1 groups t h e case s t u d i e s a c c o r d i n g t o c e r t a i n t y p i c a l c r i t e r i a .

6.2 Instructions used in form- ulating the case studies

Each case s t u d y b e g i n s w i t h an i n t r o d u c t i o n t h a t o u t 1 i n e s t h e p l a n n i n g s i t u a t i o n i n t h e c o u n t r y o f i t s l o c a t i o n , a l o n g w i t h a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t and i t s o r i g i n . A f t e r t h i s , t h e d e t a i l s of t h e s t u d y a r e g i v e n , e x p l a i n e d by means o f answers t o t h e l i s t o f q u e s t i o n s . A 1 1 a u t h o r s were i n s t r u c t e d t o f o l l o w t h e s e t o f i n s t r u c t i o n s l i s t e d below.

1 . Case s t u d y r e p o r t s s h o u l d cover t h e e n t i r e p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g process , d i s c u s s i n g one b y one a l l o f t h e f i v e p l a n n i n g s tages a r t i c u l a t e d i n F i g u r e 1 . 1 , Chapter 1 .

2. One of t h e major o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e e n t i r e e f f o r t i s t o c a s t a p p l i c a t i o n s o f sys tem a n a l y s i s i n terms o f t h e r e a l - w o r l d c o m p l e x i t i e s o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess . W h i l e

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d i s c u s s i n g each o f t h e p l a n n i n g s t a g e s , a l l t h e systems a n a l y t i c methods a p p l i e d s h o u l d be d e s c r i b e d , and even u n s u c c e s s f u l a t t e m p t s o f a p p l i c a t i o n o f methods o f f e r e d by systems a n a l y s i s s h o u l d be i l l u m i n a t e d .

3 . E s p e c i a l l y u s e f u l f o r t h e p r o j e c t w i l l be background i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t , w h i l e i t may seem t o b e o f no p a r t i c u l a r s c i e n t i f i c v a l u e , may p r o v e t o be o f c r i t i c a l v a l u e f o r p r o j e c t development (e.g. , manpower l i m i t a t i o n , l a c k o f access t o compu t ing i n s t a l l a t i o n s , t o o s h o r t d e a d l i n e fo r r e s u l t s , e t c . )

4. I t s h o u l d be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e e n t i r e e f f o r t concerns i t s e l f w i t h t h e p rocess o f p r o j e c t s p l a n n i n g . These p r o j e c t s may be o f d i f f e r e n t c h a r a c t e r and magn i tude: however, our i n t e r e s t i s i n t h e u n d e r t a k i n g s t h a t were p lanned f o r a r e l a t i v e l y immedia te i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . Long- te rm c o u n t r y w i d e p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s o f a s t r a t e g i c n a t u r e a r e beyond t h e scope o f t h e work t o be u n d e r t a k e n by o u r Working Group.

5. Case s t u d y r e p o r t s s h o u l d n o t b e l i m i t e d t o wa te r p r o j e c t s o f a s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r . On t h e c o n t r a r y , n o n s t r u c t u r a l p r o j e c t s -- such as as f l o o d p l a i n z o n i n g , i n t r o d u c t i o n o f wa te r c o n s e r v a t i o n i n c e n t i v e s v i a r e g u l a t i o n , and wa te r p r i c i n g -- w i l l be o f g r e a t v a l u e f o r p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e f i n a l r e p o r t .

6 . I n a l l case s t u d y r e p o r t s , t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l framework s h o u l d b e i 1 l um ina ted . Who o r i g i n a l l y c o n c e i v e d t h e i d e a o f t h e p r o j e c t ? Who was charged w i t h r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f o r p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g ? D i d p r o j e c t i n i t i a t i o n i n v o l v e n e g o t i a t i o n s and b a r g a i n i n g among a l l p a r t i e s concerned? Was i t made c l e a r r i g h t a t t h e o u t s e t who wou ld o p e r a t e t h e p r o j e c t f o l l o w i n g i t s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ?

7 . I n most cases p l a n n i n g i s a p r o c e s s f u l l o f c o n t r o v e r s i e s . T h i s l e a d s t o c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s wh ich a r i s e f rom t h e m u l t i p l i c i t y o f o b j e c t i v e s and m u l t i t u d e o f a c t o r s ( e x p e r t s and dec i s i on-makers)

p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess . I t w i l l b e p a r t i c u l a r l y i l l u m i n a t i n g t o d i s c u s s t h e ways i n wh ich con f 1 i c t s i t u a t i o n s were r e s o l v e d ( i n c l u d i n g t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of b o t h a n a l y t i c and h e u r i s t i c methods).

8 . U n c e r t a i n t i e s and r i s k s a r e i n h e r e n t i n a l l p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s . I t shou ld be r e c o g n i z e d e x p l i c i t l y how they were hand 1 ed. T h i s concerns p r o j e c t o b j e c t i ves , a v a i l a b l e d a t a , model f o r m u l a t i o n , e s t i m a t i o n o f model parameters , e t c .

9. P r o j e c t s b e i n g d i s c u s s e d i n these g u i d e l i n e s n o r m a l l y d o n ' t a l l o w f o r development o f any m a j o r d a t a c o l l e c t i o n programmes: T h e i r p l a n n i n g must be based on t h e d a t a

o f a v a i l a b l e a t t h e moment i n i t i a t i o n . However, sometimes "c rash programmes" f o r c o l l e c t i o n o f c e r t a i n a b s o l u t e l y i n d i s p e n s a b l e d a t a a r e o rgan ized . I t wou ld be i n t e r e s t i ng t o i 1 1 u m i n a t e such aspec ts o f t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n programmes.

10. Because o f t h e p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t o f IHP i n t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t s t o t h e w a t e r resources p l a n n i n g process , t h e h y d r o l o g i c d a t a t h a t were used s h o u l d be e x p l i c i t l y r e c o g n i z e d i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess . Problems r e l a t e d t o t h e r e c o n s t r u c t i o n of n a t u r a l hyd ro logy (s t reamf low s e r i e s ) a r e o f i n t e r e s t , as w e l l a s t h e use o f r a i n f a l l runoff mode ls i n t h e c o n t e x t o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g .

1 1 . I n accordance w i t h t h e o v e r a l l o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s IHP p r o j e c t , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t t h e case s tudy i s p r e s e n t e d i n such a way t h a t lessons can be drawn t o improve on t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess . What a r e t h e main impediments, and how shou ld p a s t m i s t a k e s be avo ided? I n t h i s r e s p e c t , r e t r o s p e c t i v e a n a l y s i s o f a l ready - imp lemen ted p r o j e c t s t h a t were p lanned w i t h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f systems a n a l y s i s methods w i l l be o f p a r t i c u l a r v a l u e .

1 2 . These g u i d e l i n e s a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y i n c l u s i v e . Each a u t h o r shou ld d i s c u s s i n h i s summary r e p o r t

o t h e r p e r t i n e n t aspec ts t h a t he c o n s i d e r e d v a l u a b l e and t h a t c o n t r i b u t e d t o a c h i e v i n g t h e s t a t e d goa ls and o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s I H P p r o j e c t .

6.3 The purpose and scope of the questions

The t h i r t y q u e s t i o n s , w h i c h were based on F i g u r e 1 . 1 , Chapter 1 , were posed t o a l l c o n t r i b u t e r s t o t h e case s t u d i e s (see Appendix I ) . They were des igned t o cover a1 1 i m p o r t a n t aspec ts o f t h e case s t u d i e s t h a t a re r e l a t e d t o p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g . The r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e t h i r t y q u e s t i o n s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d n e x t . Planning Stage 1. Project ini t iat ion and prel iminary planning

F i v e q u e s t i o n s were d i r e c t e d a t P lann ing Stage 1 . The purpose o f these q u e s t i o n s i s t o i d e n t i f y o b j e c t i v e s and p l a n n i n g s t a f f .

Q u e s t i o n 1--Was the p r o j e c t i n i t i a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f a long- te rm program?-- was des igned t o s e t t h e case s t u d y , i n t o t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f n a t i o n a l o r even i n t e r n a t i o n a l p l a n n i n g , f rom w h i c h many b u t n o t a l l p r o j e c t s d e r i v e .

Q u e s t i o n 2--What l e v e l and t y p e o f s k i l l e d personne l and agenc ies were i n v o l v e d i n t h e v a r i o u s s tages o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s ? Was t h e p u b l i c i n v o l v e d , i n p a r t i c u l a r i n t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s ? - - c o n s i s t s i n f a c t o f two separa te b u t r e l a t e d q u e s t i o n s . The f i r s t i s concerned w i t h t h e s t a f f p e r f o r m i n g t h e s t u d y . The second concerns pub 1 i c i nvo 1 vemen t i n f o r m u l a t i n g t h e i n i t i a l p l a n s p e c i f i c a t i o n s . T h i s p u b l i c g roup i s n o t u s u a l l y c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e e a r l y p l a n n i n g s tages o f a p r o j e c t . However, i t i s t h e c o n v i c t i o n o f t h e au tho rs o f t h i s book t h a t a w a t e r resources p r o j e c t , c a r r i e d o u t a t any p l a c e i n the w o r l d , must i n v o l v e t h e p e o p l e who a r e t o be served by i t . I t i s necessary f o r t hese peop le t o be i n fo rmed so t h a t t h e y f u l l y u n d e r s t a n d t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e p r o j e c t and the b e n e f i t s

d e r i v i n g f rom i t t o be t h e most g e n e r a t e water t h a t a r e o f l a s t

because t h i s seems promi s i ng way t o

r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s ng b e n e f i t .

Q u e s t i o n 3--What d e c i s i o n c r i t e r i a were employed for p r o j e c t i n t i a t i o n ? - - c o v e r s t h e b r e a d t h o f p o s s i b l e c r i t e r i a t h a t may be used i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s and under d i f f e r e n t p o l i t i c a l and economic systems. The q u e s t i o n was i n c l u d e d i n t h e hope o f d i s c o v e r i n g some g e n e r a l i z e d c o n c l u s i o n s t h a t c o u l d be drawn on how t o s e t up a w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t , b u t t h e g e n e r a l f i n d i n g was t h a t t h e p l a n i n i t i a t i o n v e r y seldom proceeded f rom a b a s i s t h a t c o u l d be g e n e r a l i z e d .

Q u e s t i o n 4--What c o n s t r a i n t s were posed?--was in tended t o f i n d t h e t y p e s o f l i m i t a t i o n s on w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g t h a t a r e accepted i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s , such as i ssues o f landscape m o d i f i c a t i o n o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n . The i n t e n t i o n was a l s o ‘ to f i n d o u t i f such c o n s t r a i n t s w h i c h a r e e s t a b l i s h e d a t t h e o u t s e t , whether t h e y a r e n e g o t i a b l e , and whether t h e y l ead t o l i m i t a t i o n s i n t h e scope o f t h e p l a n n i n g o r t h e scope o f t h e p r o j e c t .

Q u e s t i o n 5 - - D i d a l l e x p e r t s agree on t h e methods t o be employed?--was d i r e c t e d t o t h e q u e s t i o n o f t h e c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e p l a n n i n g s t a f f and t h e i r c o m p a t i b i l i t y . Many t ypes o f e x p e r t s a r e n o t w e l l a c q u a i n t e d w i t h t h e c o n c e p t s o f system a n a l y s i s . For example, an a g r i c u l t u r a l e n g i n e e r who i s an e x p e r t on w a t e r d i s t r i b u t i o n systems may n o t see h i s p a r t o f t h e p r o j e c t i n t h e same frame as t h e m e t e o r o l o g i s t who d i s c u s s e s t h e r a i n f a l l i n p u t s i n t o an i r r i g a t i o n system. The i s s u e r a i s e d by t h i s q u e s t i o n i s c o n f l i c t r e s o l u t i o n among e x p e r t s d u r i n g t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f a p r o j e c t .

Planning Stage 2: Data collection and processing

The second g r o u p o f q u e s t i o n s r e l a t e t o P l a n n i n g Stage 2 , on t h e d a t a i n v o l v e d and t h e mode o f

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g a t h e r i n g and a n a l y z i n g them.

Q u e s t i o n 6--What d a t a were used?- -concerns n o t so much t h e d e t a i l s o f a l l t h e d a t a b u t t h e n e t w o r k s t h a t a r e a v a i l a b l e i n v a r i o u s c o u n t r i e s and t h e t y p e s o f d a t a t h a t a r e b e i n g used i n t h e a n a l y s i s . Not everywhere i s a ne twork a v a i l a b l e ; o f t e n i t s h o u l d be i n s t a l l e d when i t does n o t e x i s t , b u t even more o f t e n i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o do so. T h i s i s t h e s u b j e c t o f Q u e s t i o n 7--Were o n l y e x i s t i n g d a t a used? But Q u e s t i o n 7 goes f u r t h e r i n s u g g e s t i n g t h a t i t i s p o s s i b l e a l s o t o upgrade t h e d a t a base b y c o n t i n u i n g measurements d u r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess , o r even d u r i n g t h e f i r s t phase o f t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t . I n a more s o p h i s t i c a t e d p l a n n i n g e f f o r t , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o t r a d e - o f f l e n g t h o f d a t a r e c o r d s a g a i n s t d e s i g n u n c e r t a i n t y . To f i n d o u t i f such t e c h n i q u e s were used, Q u e s t i o n 8--Were OR techn iques used t o d e c i d e on t h e method o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and l e n g t h o f d a t a r e c o r d s ?--was asked. I t i s a d i f f i c u l t p rob lem t o o b t a i n economic and o t h e r i n p u t d a t a f o r o p t i m i z a t i o n models, i nc 1 ud i ng monetary o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s . I t i s o f g r e a t i n t e r e s t t o f i n d o u t how such d a t a a r e secu red i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s . T h i s i s t h e purpose o f Q u e s t i o n g--Was a programme s e t up t o t a k e s t o c k o f and/or u t i l i z e c r i t e r i a d a t a ? F i n a l l y , Q u e s t i o n 10--Were any s p e c i a l methods used t o a n a l y z e t h e data?--was aimed a t t h e r e s e a r c h aspec t o f d a t a a n a l y s i s and t h e s p e c i a l methods o f h a n d l i n g such t h i n g s as p rob lem d a t a bases o r s c a r c e o r unusual t y p e s o f d a t a .

Planning Stage 3: Formulation and screening of project alternatives

The t h i r d g roup o f q u e s t i o n s concerns t h e f o r m u l t i o n o f p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s , S tage 3 . One r e s u l t o f t h e p l a n n i n g i n i t i a t i o n phase (Stage 1) i s a l a t e r phase i n wh ich

d a t a a r e g a t h e r e d and a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e f o r m u l a t e d . No te t h a t t h i s p r o c e s s u s u a l l y i n v o l v e s a p r o j e c t team. Thus, t h e f i r s t q u e s t i o n s , Q u e s t i o n 11--What r e s o u r c e s were

used?--and Q u e s t i o n 12--What t y p e o f i n s t i t u t i o n a l s u p p o r t was p r o v i d e d f o r c l e a r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g ? - - a r e des igned t o g i v e a background on t h e p l a n n i n g team, w h i l e Q u e s t i o n l 3 - -To what e x t e n t d i d t h e p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t e ? - - i s i n t e n d e d t o f i n d o u t i f t h e p l a n n i n g was done by agencies o n l y , o r whether s c r e e n i n g o f a l t e r n a t i v e s a l s o i n v o l v e d t h e concerned p u b l i c . Q u e s t i o n 2 , w h i c h a l s o i n q u i r e d abou t pub1 i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n , o n l y covers t h e p r o j e c t i n i t i a t i o n phase, whereas Q u e s t i o n 13 was des igned t o add i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e l e v e l o f p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n t h r o u g h o u t t h e p l a n n i n g .

O f t e n t h e p u b l i c i s c o n f r o n t e d w i t h a f i n i s h e d p l a n , and i t becomes v e r y d i f f i c u l t indeed f o r somebody who has not p a r t i c i p a t e d i n t h e

unders tand t h e reasons f o r t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e f i n a l p r o j e c t . Such c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a r e a l r e a d y i n c o r p o r a t e d t o some e x t e n t i n t h e f i n a l q u e s t i o n s o f Stage 3. Q u e s t i o n 19--Who made t h e f i n a l dec i s i o n on t h e p r o j e c t ? - - a n d Ques t i o n 20--Was i t an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y p l a n n i n g e f f o r t ? - - excep t t h a t i n t h e s e two q u e s t i o n s t h e judgment o f each case s t u d y respondent i s c a l l e d on so he/she can make recommendations on how t h i s s t a g e m i g h t have been executed f o r b e s t r e s u l t s .

s c r e e n i ng process t o f u l l y

Q u e s t i o n s 14 t o 18 a r e d i r e c t e d toward t h e p rocess o f s e t t i n g u p a p r e l i m i n a r y model f o r t h e purpose o f s e l e c t i n g an a l t e r n a t i v e o r a l t e r n a t i v e s t o be i n v e s t i g a t e d i n d e t a i l i n S tage 4.

Ques t i on 14--Were many a l t e r n a t i v e s i n v e s t i g a t e d ? - - i s a q u e s t i o n whose answer o b v i o u s l y r e q u i r e s a number l a r g e r than one, because u n l e s s t h e r e i s a c h o i c e a t t h i s s tage, t h e r e i s no d e c i s i o n process , and no Stage 3 e x i s t s .

Ques t i on 15--Wha t was t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e dec i s ion -mak ing p rocess a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p lann i r ,g d u r i n g Stage 3 ? - - i s an i n q u i r y i n t o t h e dec i s ion -mak ing

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p rocess adopted by t h e team o f p l a n n e r s and t h e method by wh ich i t a s s e r t e d t h e s u p p o r t o f t h e dec i s ion -makers . I t i s g e n e r a l l y agreed t h a t complex water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s must b e worked on by e x p e r t s o f many d i f f e r e n t k i n d s . W i t h such v a r i e d i n p u t , a team leader i s needed who i s a u t h o r i z e d t o o v e r r i d e i n c o m p a t i b l e o p i n i o n s and whose l e a d e r s h i p i s accepted . The second p a r t o f t w o - p a r t Q u e s t i o n 16--What c o n s t r a i n t s were imposed? Who imposed then?- -addresses t h e same concern , w h i l e t h e f i r s t p a r t i s d i r e c t e d toward p r o j e c t model f o r m u l a t i o n , wh ich depends on t h e c o n s t r a i n t s under wh ich t h e p l a n n e r must work .

Q u e s t i o n 17--What models where used?- - requ i red a d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e models f o r t h e Stage 3 c a l c u l a t i o n s . These c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e based on rough e s t i m a t e s o f i n p u t s and c o s t s : t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s - a r e done i n j u s t s u f f i c i e n t enough d e t a i l t o p e r m i t s e l e c t i o n o f t h e f i n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s and, what i s more i m p o r t a n t , t o p e r m i t e s t i m a t i o n o f p r o j e c t c o s t s and o t h e r consequences so t h a t a f i n a l d e c i s i o n on t h e p r o j e c t can be o b t a i n e d . Because models can be o f

r e 1 i a b i 1 i t y , Q u e s t i o n 18--To what e x t e n t were t h e s e models t e s t e d , e t c . ? - - i s r e a l l y a q u e s t i o n about t h e expec ted accu racy o f S tage 3 c a l c u l a t i o n s .

v e r y d i f f e r e n t degrees o f

Planning Stage 4: Development of f inal project specifications

Stage 4 b e g i n s when p r e l i m i n a r y dec i s i o n s c o n c e r n i n g p r o j e c t c o n f i g u r a t i o n s have been made, t h e funds f o r f i n a l p l a n n i n g have been made a v a i l a b l e , and a l l c o n s t r a i n t s and o b j e c t i v e s have been d e t a i l e d . A t t h i s p o i n t , t h e s t a g e has n o t y e t been reached f o r do ing d e s i g n , a l t h o u g h t h e t y p e s o f s t r u c t u r e and t h e d e s i g n c o n d i t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g t h e i r f u n c t i o n w i t h i n t h e p r o j e c t a r e known. Stage 4 c o n s i s t s o f q u a n t i f y i n g i n f o r m a t i o n on d e s i g n d i s c h a r g e s , o p e r a t i o n r u l e s , e t c . , w i t h i n a system model i n w h i c h i n t e r a c t i o n s o f a l l system e lements as w e l l as t r a d e - o f f s among

o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s ( i f any) have been q u a n t i f i e d .

Q u e s t i o n 21--What OR methods were used?- -concerns t h e methods o f a n a l y s i s by wh ich t h e f i n a l p r o j e c t and i t s o p e r a t i o n were s p e c i f i e d . The n e x t two q u e s t i o n s , Q u e s t i o n 22- -D id you use cos t -bene f i t a n a l y s i s ? - - a n d Q u e s t i o n 23--Did you make a r i s k o r impact a n a l y s i s ? - - a d d i m p o r t a n t d e t a i l s t o t h e response t o Q u e s t i o n 21, because t h e s e two t y p e s o f a n a l y s d e c i s i o n se1 e c t i on d e c i s i o n . Ques t i on t r a d e - o f f r e s p e c t econom i c q u e s t i o n

. . s y i e l d t h e most i m p o r t a n t c r i t e r i a f o r f i n a l p l a n and p r o j e c t i m p l e m e n t a t i o n

The same i s t r u e f o r 25--What p rocedure o f

a n a l y s i s was f o l l o w e d w i t h t o env i ronmenta 1 v s .

ssues?- -except t h a t t h i s i s more concerned w i t h t h e

d e t a i l s o f t h e a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e than w i t h p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e r e s u l t s . These ana lyses , w h i c h were a l r e a d y p a r t o f Stage 3, a r e r e p e a t e d i n S tage 4 f o r f i n a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . . They a r e perhaps made b y a g roup who have had more d i r e c t access t o e n g i n e e r i n g c o s t i n f o r m a t i o n . Stage 4 must i n v o l v e e x p e r i e n c e d eng ineers , p r e f e r a b l y those who w i l l do t h e f i n a l d e s i g n i n Stage 5.

Q u e s t i o n 24--How were t h e p r e f e r r e d p l a n s s e l e c t e d ? - - i s d i r e c t e d a t f i n d i n g o u t how t h e e n g i n e e r i n g e x p e r t s i n t e r a c t e d w i t h n o n t e c h n i c a l pe rsons i n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p rocess w i t h i n t h e c o n s t r a i n t s o f p r e v i o u s d e c i s i o n s . Q u e s t i o n 26--Did t h e dec i s ion -maker accep t t h e optimum s o l u t i o n ? - - i s t h e u l t i m a t e q u e s t i o n o f t h i s k i n d . I t seeks t o d e t e r m i n e whether t h e p r o j e c t was a c t u a l l y des igned a c c o r d i n g t o some optimum ( p r e f e r r e d s o l u t i o n ) i d e n t i f i e d i n t h e systems a n a l y s t ’ s recommendations or whether t h e f i n a l d e s i g n proceeded a l o n g

Ques t i o n c o n v e n t i o n a l 27--What was t h e p rocess l e a d i n g t o t h e a p p r o v a l o f t h e f i n a l p l a n - - t h e n , i s t h e f i n a l s t e p i n t h e d e c i s i o n p rocess l e a d i n g t o t h e f i n a l go-ahead g i v e n by p o l i t i c a l b o d i e s , w h i c h w i l l u s u a l l y a l s o have t o make a v a i l a b l e t h e funds f o r t h e p r o j e c t . T h i s q u e s t i o n and Q u e s t i o n

1 i nes .

-72 -

28--What was t h e p r o c e s s o f f u n d i n g t h e f i n a l p l a n ? - - a r e d i f f e r e n t a s p e c t s o f t h e same q u e s t i o n and must be answered t o g t h e r . Q u i t e a d i f f e r e n t k i n d o f p rob lem i s addressed by Q u e s t i o n 29--Was any p o s t - p l a n n i n g e v a l u a t i o n c a r r i e d o u t ? U s u a l l y t h e p l a n n e r o f a p r o j e c t r e c e i v e s v e r y l i t t l e feedback f rom t h e o p e r a t o r s o f t h e f i n i s h e d p r o j e c t . Thus, v e r y l i t t l e i s known abou t whether wa te r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s have r e a l l y pe r fo rmed a c c o r d i n g t o p l a n o r , i f t h e y have n o t , wh ich one (o r more) o f t h e aspec ts d e v i a t e d f r o m t h e d e s i g n assumpt ions . F u t u r e d e s i g n s s h o u l d be a l l o w e d t o b e n e f i t f r o m exper i ences w i t h ex i s t i ng p r o j e c t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n a s s e s s i n g t h e need f o r d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s .

Planning Stage 5: Project design

The f i n a l q u e s t i o n r e l a t e d t o Stage 5 was Q u e s t i o n 3O--Were t h e d e s i g n d raw ings p a r t o f your j o b ? T h i s q u e s t i o n was asked i n o r d e r t o f i n d out how c l o s e l y d e s i g n e r and p l a n n e r were a s s o c i a t e d . I t i s g e n e r a l l y assumed t h a t a p r o j e c t s p e c i f i e d i n S tage 4 must be accep ted n o t o n l y by t h e dec i s ion -maker , b u t a l s o b y t h e d e s i g n e n g i n e e r , who i n t h e p a s t has u s u a l l y been t h e same p e r s o n who d i d t h e p l a n n i n g . How d i d he o r she r e a c t t o h a v i n g a p l a n n e r t e l l h im what d e s i g n s p e c i f i c a t i o n s t o use? I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t ' expe r ience o b t a i n e d d u r i n g t h e case s t u d i e s may be used t o i n c r e a s e c o o p e r a t i o n and c o l l a b o r a t i o n between p l a n n e r and des i gner .

The p l a n n i n g p rocess , as b roken down i n t o t h i r t y p e r t i n e n t q u e s t i o n s , p r o v i d e s a g u i d e by wh ich p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g i n w a t e r resources may proceed. I f a wa te r resources p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g team i s a b l e t o answer a l l t hese q u e s t i o n s , t h e n i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h e e x p e r t s have done a good j o b o f d r a w i n g u p a comp le te p l a n .

Some o f t h e e x p e r i e n c e s wh ich t h e members o f t h e w o r k i n g g roup had i n t h e i r s t u d i e s o r i n p l a n n i n g

p r o j e c t s w i 1 1 be summar n e x t s e c t i o n .

6.4 Some conclusions from case studies

2 ed

the

The t y p e o f case

n t h e

s t u d y s u b m i t t e d b y members o f t h e w o r k i n g g roup m i g h t have been t o some e x t e n t de te rm ined b y t h e sample case s t u d y chosen and t h e s p e c i f i c s o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e . However, t h e case s t u d i e s had a l r e a d y been s u b m i t t e d b e f o r e t h e example was p repared ,so most members can be assumed t o have been f r e e o f t h e s t r a i t j a c k e t o f a g i v e n p r i o r example. I t i s t h e r e f o r e remarkab le t h a t r e g i o n a l p r o j e c t s dominate so g r e a t l y . I t seems t h a t t h i s p l a n n i n g l e v e l i s p a r t i c u l a r l y w e l l s u i t e d t o w a t e r resources p l a n n i n g . T h i s i s because most r e g i o n a l s t u d i e s i n v o l v e r i v e r b a s i n s and t h e r e f o r e o p e r a t e w i t h i n n a t u r a l b o u n d a r i e s and l a r g e l y w i t h i n c o n s t r a i n t s and o b j e c t i v e s s e t o n l y by demands on wa te r . On a l a r g e s c a l e , f o r example a t t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l o r f o r a l a r g e economic r e g i o n , w a t e r and i t s use and d i s t r i b u t i o n t e n d t o become j u s t one concern among many o t h e r s . T h i s means t h a t i n p r o j e c t s on a n a t i o n a l s c a l e , o b j e c t i v e s and c o n f l i c t s may s u r f a c e w h i c h w i l l n o t be w e l l unders tood by w a t e r resources p l a n n e r s , most o f whom have an e n g i n e e r i n g background and s e r v e i n an e n g i n e e r i n g depar tment o f an agency o r u n i v e r s i t y . On t h e o t h e r hand, a s m a l l - s c a l e wa te r resources p r o j e c t can degenera te i n t o m e r e l y t h e des i gn o f h y d r a u l i c s t r u c t u r e ( s ) . Such a problem m i g h t be q u i t e demanding for a des i gn eng ineer b u t w i l l i n v o l v e r a t h e r 1 i m i t ed scope f o r p l a n n i n g .

The p r e f e r e n c e f o r case s t u d i e s t h a t r e p o r t on p l a n n i n g r e g i o n a l p r o j e c t s i s undoub ted ly a l s o d i c t a t e d b y t h e f a c t t h a t , on t h i s l e v e l , wa te r concerns dominate t h e d e c i s i o n process o f a wa te r resources p r o j e c t . Under such c o n d i t i o n s , t h e r e a p p a r e n t l y a r e n o t many o t h e r c o n f l i c t i n g i n t e r e s t s . Once the "dec i s i on-maker" --usua 1 1 y a m i n i s t r y ' o f a h i g h - l e v e l government agency w i t h b road

- 7 3 -

powers--has de te rm ined t h a t t h e water resources o f a r e g i o n a r e t o be deve loped, t h e e x e c u t i o n o f t h e

eng ineers , who use t h e i r b e s t judgment i n d e c i d i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s and s t r u c t u r e s t h a t w i l l accompl ish t h e o b j e c t i v e o f water resources development. These eng ineers use t h e b e s t methods a v a i l a b l e t o them: t h e p r o j e c t s t h a t have been d e s c r i b e d i n t h e case s t u d i e s have m o s t l y been cases where t h e d e s i r e t o do t h e j o b as w e l l as p o s s i b l e has l e d i n a n a t u r a l way t o t h e use o f a more o r l e s s comprehensive systems approach. A l though many r e g i o n a l water resources systems have been deve loped or p lanned w i t h o u t t h e use o f systems a n a l y s i s and o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h methods, i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h e number o f p r o j e c t s deve loped i n t h i s manner w i l l decrease i n t h e f u t u r e as more eng ineers f a m i l i a r w i t h such techn iques a r e e n t r u s t e d w i t h wa te r resources p l a n n i n g .

p l a n n i n g process i s l e f t t o

I t i s remarkab le t h a t one s t u d y (Case Study 10, by Becker and K o r z e r s k i ) shows t h a t i t i s p o s s i b l e t o d e v e l o p a s t a n d a r d i z e d o r a lmos t s t a n d a r d i z e d approach t o s o l v i n g t y p i c a l water resources problems i n many d i f f e r e n t sub-bas ins o f a r i v e r . I n such a case, systems a n a l y s i s has become a s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t t echn ique wh ich supersedes a1 1 p r e v i o u s techn iques - -a s t a t e o f a f f a i r s t h a t has n o t been reached i n many c o u n t r i e s . I t l i k e l y r e q u i r e s a degree o f acceptance o f systems techn iques wh ich can o n l y be o b t a i n e d i f t h e dec is ion-makers concerned w i t h water p r o j e c t s t h o r o u g h l y unders tand t h e p o t e n t i a l and t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f t h e systems approach t o water r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i ng.

Very l i t t l e has been s a i d about t h e i n c l u s i o n o f o p e r a t i o n r u l e s or schedu les i n t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n and t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s d e r i v e d f rom them. T h i s i s u n f o r t u n a t e , because i t i s one of t h e g r e a t hopes o f water resources p l a n n e r s t h a t , by p r o v i d i n g o p t i m a l o p e r a t i o n r u l e s f o r r e s e r v o i r s or o t h e r water

d i s t r i b u t i o n systems, t h e y can m a t e r i a l l y improve t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . Some i n f o r m a t i o n wou ld b e d e s i r a b l e on how w e l l t h e systems t h a t o p e r a t e on o p t i m i z e d o p e r a t i o n r u l e s a r e p e r f o r m i n g . I t seems l i k e l y t h a t o p e r a t o r s wou ld s t e e r a s a f e c o u r s e by u s i n g o p t i m i z e d r u l e s t h a t y i e l d an optimum (on t h e average) when no f o r e c a s t i n g o f f u t u r e e v e n t s i s i n c l u d e d . These can b e supplemented by i n d i v i d u a l a d j u s t m e n t s based on e x p e r i e n c e w i t h t h e a c t u a l o p e r a t i o n o f t h e system, t h e r e b y a c h i e v i n g enough o p e r a t i o n a l f l e x i b i l i t y t o be a b l e t o a d j u s t t o l a t e r changes o f o b j e c t i v e s o r o p e r a t i o n r u l e s .

I t i s a l s o n o t e w o r t h y t h a t no case s t u d y makes r e f e r e n c e s t o an o p e r a t i o n a l f o r e c a s t i n g model t h a t p e r m i t s a d a p t i v e o p e r a t i o n based on r e a l - t i m e h y d r o l o g i c even ts . One reason fo r t h i s may b e r e l a t e d t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e s e wa te r r e s o u r c e s systems p e r f o r m f a i r l y w e l l w i t h o u t r e a l - t i m e f o r e c a s t i n g o f f u t u r e demands o r s u p p l i e s , and t h e per fo rmance can be improved o n l y b y f o r e c a s t i n g ex t reme even ts t h a t a r e e x t r e m e l y r a r e .

An example o f t h i s s t a t e of a f f a i r s i s t h e f o r e c a s t i n g of f l o o d s i n s m a l l ca tchments . I n p r i n c i p l e , t h e r e have been a number of r e s e a r c h s t u d i e s t h a t show t h a t an improvement i n f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n can be o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h r e a l - t i m e f o r e c a s t i n g s w i t h Kalman f i l t e r s or by means o f s a t e l l i t e o r r a d a r e v a l u a t i o n o f r a i n f a l l . However, t h e o p e r a t i o n i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a f o r e c a s t i n g system i n a s m a l l catchment i s n o t c o s t e f f e c t i v e . I t i s n o t u s e f u l t o i n s t a l l a sys tem t h a t w i l l be used o n l y once e v e r y f i f t y or so years . The f o r e c a s t i n g p r o c e d u r e must become p a r t o f a m u l t i p u r p o s e f o r e c a s t i n g a c t i v i t y , where economic f e a s i b i 1 i t y i s d i c t a t e d by o t h e r uses .

The case s t u d i e s a l s o show v e r y l i t t l e a c t u a l o p t i m i z a t i o n i n t h e sense o f d e t e r m i n i n g t h e opt imum of an o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n . S i m u l a t i o n i s t h e most common method used for p l a n n i n g , and t h e f i g u r e s o f m e r i t

-74 -

a r e m o s t l y p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f m e e t i n g

p a r t i c u l a r l y w e l l expressed i n t h e method advocated i n t h e case s t u d y by Becker and Kozersk i (see Case Study 10 ) . I t seems t h a t i t i s g e n e r a l l y e a s i e r f o r t h e "dec i s i on-maker" t o base h i s d e c i s i o n s on a m u l t i t u d e o f such f i g u r e s of m e r i t , w h i c h he t h e n e v a l u a t e s , n o t acco rd i ng t o o b j e c t i v e c r i t e r i a b u t a c c o r d i n g t o h i s s u b j e c t i v e i m p r e s s i o n o f t h e i r r e l a t i v e m e r i t . Indeed, anyone who has been i n v o l v e d i n t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s o f a wa te r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t has found t h a t c o s t s o r o t h e r r a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e s a r e v e r y seldom used as c r i t e r i a f o r mak ing t h e f i n a l d e c i s i o n . The d e c i d i n g f a c t o r i s p o l i t i c a l acceptance, w h i c h i s based on p e r c e p t i o n s o f r e l a t i v e m e r i t as compared w i t h o t h e r uses o f p u b l i c funds . Even i n cases where c o s t - b e n e f i t o r s i m i l a r economic c r i t e r i a p l a y a r o l e i n t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s ( i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y funded p r o j e c t s , f o r example) , o p t i m i z a t i o n i s r a r e l y ever employed because o f t h e d i f f i c u l t y o f e x p r e s s i n g d i f f e r e n t o b j e c t i v e s i n commensurate te rms. ana 1 ys i s methods deve loped over t h e p a s t two decades may overcome t h i s p rob lem i n a way t h a t i s a c c e p t a b l e t o t h e d e c i s i o n makers.

t a r g e t o b j e c t i v e s . Th i s I S

Mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e

As a f i n a l o b s e r v a t i o n , most o f t h e s t u d i e s i n c l u d e d he re i n v o l v e d n o t o n l y w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g s t a f f f r o m an agency o f a c o n s u l t i n g f i r m , b u t t h e y were a l s o accompanied b y u n i v e r s i t y teams, w h i c h were o f t e n r e s e a r c h teams. I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h r o u g h r e s e a r c h and s t u d y o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l l i t e r a t u r e , t h e advantages o f systems ana l y s i s have become apparen t t o academics e a r l i e r t h a n t o o t h e r p l a n n e r s - - i n p a r t

c e r t a i n l y because o f t h e i r i n f o r m a t i o n advantage, b u t i n p a r t p r o b a b l y a l s o because academics can spend more t i m e i n f o l l o w i n g new approaches t h a n p r o f e s s i o n a l s , who u s u a l l y work under v e r y t i g h t monetary o r t i m e c o n s t r a i n t s . T h i s s i t u a t i o n i s t y p i c a l f o r a d e v e l o p i n g f i e l d . The academic w i l l t end t o s i m p l i f y p rob lems t o make them f i t t h e methods o f s o l u t i o n t h a t he knows; when he works w i t h a p r a c t i t i o n e r , he w i l l f i n d t h e f l a w s and gaps i n h i s knowledge, w h i c h w i l l prompt h im t o f u r t h e r d e v e l o p and a d j u s t h i s methods. T h i s p rocess o f feedback and ad jus tmen t c o n t i n u e s u n t i l e i t h e r t h e new methods become t o o comp l i ca ted , a t wh ich p o i n t t hey f i n d a f i n a l r e s t i n g p l a c e i n t h e pages o f a p r o f e s s i o n a l j o u r n a l , or u n t i l t h e y have been f o r g e d i n t o a g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t a b l e t o o l t h a t becomes p a r t o f t h e p r o f e s s i o n a l know-how. I t seems t h a t up t o now i n t h e f i e l d o f wa te r

s imu 1 a t i o n resources , m o s t l y t echn iques have reached t h e l a t t e r s tage . Only t i m e w i l l t e l l , a f t e r a g r e a t dea l o f c o o p e r a t i v e e f f o r t i n v o l v i n g u n i v e r s i t i e s , government agenc ies , and c o n s u l t i n g f i r m s , i f more s o p h i s t i c a t e d d e c i s i o n models w i 1 1 be s u i t a b l e f o r genera l p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g .

The c u r r e n t s t a t e o f a f f a i r s m i g h t be summarized as f o l l o w s . Many o f t h e Unesco member c o u n t r i e s have teams o f peop le who keep t r y i n g t o improve t h e p l a n n i n g methods for water resources p r o j e c t s . I f t h i s book h e l p s t o encourage them t o c o n t i n u e t h e i r work and see t h e i r p r o j e c t as p a r t o f an i n t e r n a t i o n a l e f f o r t a t u n d e r s t a n d i n g and improv ing t h e p l a n n i n g process f o r water resources p r o j e c t s , i t w i l l have served i t s purpose.

Appendix 1 : The questionnaire

Thi s appendi x c o n t a i n s a1 1 t h e q u e s t i o n s t h a t were used t o o u t l i n e and g i v e r e g u l a r i t y t o t h e case s t u d i e s t h a t f o l l o w . They a r e grouped under head i ngs t h a t r e p r e s e n t t h e f i v e p l a n n i n g s t a g e s o u t l i n e d i n Chapter 1 .

Planning Stage 1: Project initiation and preliminary planning

1 .

2.

3 .

4 .

5 .

Was t h e p r o j e c t i n i t i a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f a l o n g - t e r m program?

D i s c u s s b r i e f l y .

What l e v e l and t y p e o f s k i l l e d pe rsonne l and agenc ies were i n v o l v e d i n t h e v a r i o u s s t a g e s o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess? Was t h e p u b l i c i n v o l v e d , i n p a r t i c u l a r i n t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s ?

What d e c i s i o n c r i t e r i a were employed f o r t h e p r o j e c t i n i t i a t i o n ?

What c o n s t r a i n t s were posed? What c o n s t r a i n t s posed t h e g r e a t e s t p rob lem? Who imposed them? Was t h e r e w i l l i n g n e s s t o d i s c u s s these c o n s t r a i n t s ?

D i d a l l e x p e r t s agree on t h e methods t o be employed? How was an agreement b r o u g h t

dec i s ion -makers s i d i n g w i t h one o f t h e o p i n i o n s ? D e c i s i o n by a p l a n n i n g bureau?)

abou t? ( D e c i s i o n by

Planning Stage 2: Data collection and processing

6 . What d a t a were used i n terms o f t ype , scope, f requency , s p a t i a l and tempora l d i s t r i b u t i o n , e t c . ? P 1 ease address b o t h h y d r o l o g i c a l and n o n h y d r o l o g i c a l d a t a (e.g., demograph ica l , soc io -economic) .

7 .

8 .

9.

10.

Were o n l y e x i s t i n g d a t a used? I f n o t , what methods were used t o g e t new d a t a : s y n t h e t i c g e n e r a t i o n ? new measurements? Were measurements c o n t i n u e d d u r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g s t a g e ? d u r i n g t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n ?

Were OR t e c h n i q u e s used t o d e c i d e on t h e method o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and l e n g t h o f d a t a ?

Was a program s e t up t o assess t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of t h e d a t a base used? Who managed such a program?

Were any s p e c i a l methods used t o a n a l y z e t h e d a t a ?

Planning Stage 3: Formulation and screening of project alternatives

1 1 . What r e s o u r c e s were used i n t h i s phase o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s , e.g. , t ime , funds , computers , f a c i l i t i e s , . and manpower?

1 2 . What t y p e o f i n s t i t u t i o n a l s u p p o r t was p r o v i d e d d u r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g process , i t s sou rces , and i t s impacts?

13. To what e x t e n t d i d t h e p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p rocess?

many a l t e r n a t i v e s i n v e s t i g a t e d ? I n what d e t a i l ? Who d e c i d e d on t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s t o be i n v e s t i g a t e d ?

14 . Were

15. What was t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p l a n n i n g o f t h e case s t u d y d i s c u s s e d ? Who made what d e c i s i o n s ? How was con f 1 i c t r e s o l u t i o n ach i eved? How were t r a d e - o f f S

assessed-- e x p l i c i t l y ? I m p l i c i t l y ?

-76-

16. What c o n s t r a i n t s were imposed? I n your o p i n i o n were they r e a s o n a b l e ? A c c e p t a b l e ? Who imposed them? How h a r d were they : Could t h e y be r e l a x e d

d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s ? by d i s c u s s i o n ? BY

17. What s i m u l a t i o n / a n a l y t i c a l models d i d you use and f o r what purpose? Which o f t hese mode 1 s were deve 1 oped e l s e w h e r e and which were d e v e l o p e d d u r i n g and f o r t h e p r o j e c t ?

18. To what e x t e n t were these models t e s t e d , c a l i b r a t e d , v e r i f i e d , and m o d i f i e d ?

19. What was t h e r o l e of t h e techn i ca 1 e x p e r t s , t h e dec is ion-makers , and t h e p u b l i c i n t h e f i n a l s e l e c t i o n o f t h e f i n a l p l a n ?

20. Was i t an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y p l a n n i n g e f f o r t ? Was t h e m i x a p p r o p r i a t e ? What c o n c l u s i o n s and recommendat ions can you share?

Planning Stage 4: Development of final project specifications

2 1 . What OR methods were used? For each method: d i d you use e x i s t i n g models f o r your p r o j e c t ? D i d you use new developments, m o d i f i c a t i o n s ? Your own? Where d i d you g e t them f rom? D i d you f i n d t h e 1 i t e r a t u r e u s e f u l ? Which book o r paper was o f p a r t i c u l a r v a l u e ? D i d you a d j u s t t h e prob lem t o f i t t h e model? Was t h e model " o p t i m i z e d " ? D i d you e x p l o r e many d i f f e r e n t methods? How many? How d i d you d e c i d e on t h e one you used? Would you use i t a g a i n ? H o w much t i m e d i d you spend cn t h i s ?

2 3 .

2 4 .

25.

26.

2 7 .

28.

29.

a Did you make ana a n a l y s i s / i m p a c t

Why: was i t r e q u i r e d dec i s i on-maker , o r by What d i d you l e a r n f rom

r i s k ys i S ?

by a whom? t?

How were the p r e f e r r e d p l a n s s e l e c t e d ? How were t r a d e - o f f s assessed? Were spec i f i c t r a d e - o f f s genera ted? Was a mu1 t i o b j e c t i ve o p t i m i z a t i o n methodology used? How i n v o l v e d were d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s (a t t h e v a r i o u s l e v e l s ) i n t h i s s e l e c t i o n process? What c o n c l u s i o n s and recommendations can you sha re?

What p rocedure o f t r a d e - o f f a n a l y s i s was f o l l o w e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o env i ronmenta 1 concerns v s . econom i c concerns and o b j e c t i v e s ?

D id the dec is ion-maker a c c e p t s o l u t i o n an

genera ted by t h e models? D i d he a c c e p t your approach o r was

"convent i ona 1 I ' i n f orma t i on?

"op t i ma 1 I'

i t supplemented by

What was the p r o c e s s l e a d i n g t o t h e approva l o f t h e f i n a l p l a n ?

What was t h e process o f f u n d i n g t h e f i n a l p l a n ?

Was any p o s t - p l a n n i n g e v a l u a t i o n c a r r i e d o u t ?

Planning Stage 5: Project design

3 0 . Were t h e drawings p a r t o f your j o b ? Who d i d them?--another group, somebody i n your o f f i c e ? Could you r e l a t e t h e systems a n a l y s i s r e s u l t s t o the d e s i g n e r ?

22 . D id you make a c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s ? What d i d you l e a r n f rom i t? Would you recommend d o i n g t h a t a g a i n ?

Appendix 11: Case studies

T h i s append ix c o n s i s t s o f t e n case s t u d i e s . They a r e a r ranged i n

e x c e p t i o n s . Case Study 1 , E.J. P l a t e , was w r i t t e n t o p r o v i d e an example of how t o s t r u c t u r e t h e case s t u d i e s f o r t h i s appendix. T h i s example was s e n t t o a l l members o f t h e Work ing Group, and t o t h e o t h e r c o n t r i b u t o r s .

a l p h a b e t i c a l o r d e r , w i t h two

Case Study 10, by A . Becker

Case Study Authors

1 E . J . P1 a t e

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

D. A l kan

A.H.M.Bresser

Y.Y.Haimes K . Sung L.T.Crook D.Gregorka

D.T.Howe1 1

Z.Kaczmarek J . K i nd 1 e r

D . Rosbj e r g

U.Shami r

P .Stegaro i u I . D i m a R.Amaf t iese i V . V i San

A . Becker D . Koze rsk i

and D . K o z e r s k i , was n o t s t r u c t u r e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e example o f Case Study 1 . I t i s a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f a genera l p rocedure based on s i m u l a t i o n methods f o r p l a n n i n g w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s , and i t supplements t h e p rocess exp ressed i n Chap te rs 1 t o 5. Ra the r t h a n i n t e g r a t i n g t h i s method i n t o t h e t e x t , t h e Ed i t o r i a 1 Board d e c i d e d t o l e a v e t h e paper as a g e n e r a l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e o v e r a l l s u b j e c t .

Title

P l a n n i n g a System f o r F l o o d P r o t e c t i o n R e s e r v o i r s f o r t h e S u l m Catchment i n t h e Federa l R e p u b l i c o f Germany

Development o f Water Supp ly Schemes i n t h e E a s t e r n Negev, I s r a e l : General D e s c r i p t i o n

Long Term I n t e g r a t e d P l a n n i n g of t h e D r i n k i n g Water Supp ly i n t h e P r o v i n c e o f South H o l l a n d (The Ne the r 1 ands) : I ODZH

Pos t E v a l u a t i o n o f t h e P l a n n i n g Process i n t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Leve l -B Study

The P1 ann i ng Process i n t h e Me t ropo l i t a n Ade 1 a i de Water Resources Study o f June 1978

Pos t E v a l u a t i o n o f t h e P l a n n i n g Process i n t h e V i s t u l a R i v e r Bas in , Po land

Development o f a Water Resources Management Model fo r t h e Susaa Catchment i n Denmark

Management o f I s r a e l ' s Water Resources

P romot ion o f M u l t i p u r p o s e Water Management F a c i l i t i e s i n t h e T i r n a v a Mare B a s i n

A p p l i c a t i o n o f S i m u l a t i o n Techniques i n Water Resources P l a n n i n g and Management i n t h e German Democra t i c Republ i c

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PLANNING A SYSTEM OF FLOOD PROTECTION RESERVOIRS IN THE SULM CATCHMENT IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

Professor Erich J. Plate (PSC) lnstitut Wasserbau Ill an der Universitat Karlsruhe Kaiserstrasse 12 75 Karlsruhe 1 Federal Republic of Germany

1. Introduction

The i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of Germany has b rough t u rban developments and f a c t o r i e s i n t o r i v e r f l o o d p l a i n s which i n o l d e r days were f l o o d e d r e g u l a r l y by r i v e r s s w o l l e n f r o m heavy summer r a i n s o r e a r l y s p r i n g snow m e l t . The t r a d i t i o n a l method o f f l o o d p r o o f i n g c o n s i s t e d o f r i v e r t r a i n i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n o f f l o o d levees - measures wh ich t e n d t o a l l e v i a t e t h e f l o o d haza rd i n t h e p r o t e c t e d r e g i o n b u t i n c r e a s e magn i tude and s h o r t e n c o n c e n t r a t i o n t i m e o f t h e f l o o d s downstream. The h y d r o l o g i c a l d e s i g n i n f o r m a t i o n f o r these f l o o d s i s o b t a i n e d i n a s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d manner by extreme v a l u e a n a l y s i s o f t h e ex t reme f l o o d peaks, o f t e n u s i n g t h e p rocedure 1 1 1 recommended b y t h e German Water Resources A s s o c i a t i o n (DVWK), wh ich i s based on t h e Pearson I l l and Log Pearson I l l cu rves . By means o f h y d r a u l i c c a l c u l a t i o n s f l o o d peaks a r e conver ted i n t o s tages f o r t h e newly des igned c r o s s s e c t i o n s . The c r o s s s e c t i o n s u s u a l l y a r e o b t a i n e d combin ing e x p e r i e n c e w i t h e m p i r i c a l d e s i g n c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , a l t h o u g h a model has been deve loped by Seus and Bauch i n wh ich L P i s employed t o y i e l d a c o m b i n a t i o n o f c r o s s s e c t i o n geometry and l e v e e h e i g h t wh ich r e q u i r e s a minimum c o s t . The model

has been d e s c r i b e d i n 121 and i t has been a p p l i e d t o some B a v a r i a n r i v e r s b y t h e a u t h o r s .

Recent p r a c t i c e has been t o d e s i g n a system o f f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n r e s e r v o i r s , b y means o f w h i c h t h e f l o o d s f r o m t h e upper ca tchments a r e r e t a i n e d and r e l e a s e d a f t e r t h e f l o o d s f r o m t h e lower reaches have receded. The p r a c t i c e has t h e advantage t h a t a p a r t f r o m t h e w i d e n i n g o f nar row s e c t i o n s and channel improvements t h e lower p a r t s o f t h e r i v e r s a r e k e p t f r e e o f eng i neer i ng s t r u c t u r e s , t h u s p r e s e r v i n g them i n t h e i r n a t u r a l s t a t e w h i l e a t t h e same t i m e o b t a i n i n g f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n f o r t h e downstream areas . S i nce t h i s p r a c t i c e o f f l o o d p r o o f i n g i s used q u i t e e x t e n s i v e l y i n West Germany, i t i s u s e f u l t o p r e s e n t a case s t u d y on i t as a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e I H P as p a r t o f t h e exper iences o f Unesco member c o u n t r i e s w i t h o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h methods, i n s p i t e of t h e

and OR 1 Y .

f a c t t h a t systems a n a l y s i s methods a r e used o n l y marg ina

The sys tem c o n s i d e r e d S u l m ca tchment shown i n F i g . i s t y p i c a l o f many system

s t h e 1 . I t w h i c h

have been des igned and c o n s t r u c t e d i n t h e Federa l R e p u b l i c o f Germany i n r e c e n t years , b u t i t i s not t y p i c a l i n t h e s e r e s p e c t s : f i r s t ,

-80

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t h e area has been e x c e p t i o n a l l y w e l l equipped w i t h gag ing s t a t i o n s f o r r u n o f f and f o r r a i n f a l l , p e r m i t t i n g f r i n g e s t u d i e s on t h e e f f e c t o f ne twork d e n s i t y , r e g i o n a l i z a t i o n o f u n i t hydrographs e t c . w h i c h

recommendations f o r p rocedures t o be t o be a p p l i e d i n f u t u r e systems.

e v e n t u a l l y w i 1 1 1 ead t o

Secondly, a r e s e a r c h team was a v a i l a b l e ( I n s t i t u t Wasserbau I l l o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f K a r l s r u h e , IWK) wh ich was n o t o n l y i n t e r e s t e d i n s o l v i n g t h e prob lem a t hand b u t a l s o i n u s i n g t h e d a t a o f t h e s t u d y a rea for r e s e a r c h purposes , so t h a t t h e c o s t o f t h e d a t a e v a l u a t i o n was covered i n p a r t f r o m research funds . T h i r d l y , t h e r e s e a r c h team o f t h e IWK was i n t e r e s t e d i n a p p l y i n g OR techn iques t o o b t a i n an o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n , a l t h o u g h t r a d i t i o n a l l y t h i s p rob lem i s s o l v e d by e n g i n e e r i n g judgement and consensus o f t h e communi t ies i n v o l v e d w i t h o u t f o rma l a p p l i c a t i o n o f OR t e c h n i q u e s .

A common f e a t u r e o f most Germany f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n schemes i s t h a t t h e s i t e s a v a i l a b l e for b u i l d i n g f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n r e s e r v o i r s a r e few, l i m i t e d i n s i z e , and l o c a t e d u s u a l l y so f a r ups t ream t h a t o n l y a s m a l l p a r t o f t h e r u n o f f f r o m t h e catchment can be r e t a i n e d b y t h e b a s i n . T h e r e f o r e , t h e prob lem posed u s u a l l y i s t h i s : what i s t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f occu r rence o f t h e maximum f l o o d t h a t t h e system can p r o t e c t a g a i n s t , and what i s t h e m i n i m u m s i z e o f t h e r e s e r v o i r s a t t h e p o s s i b l e l o c a t i o n s t o accomp l i sh t h i s p r o t e c t i o n . U s u a l l y t h i s p r o b 1 em I S c o n s t r a i n e d b y innumerab le l o c a l c o n d i t i o n s r a n g i n g f r o m t h e d e s i r e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f one v i l l a g e t o be p r o t e c t e d a g a i n s t a 100 year f l o o d t o t h a t o f o t h e r v i l l a g e s who would l i k e t o have a v e r y s m a l l o r no r e s e r v o i r so as t o be a b l e t o use t h e area f o r o t h e r purposes. A lso , f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n b y r e s e r v o i r s can be supplemented b y r i v e r t r a i n i n g measures.

I n o r d e r t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e p l a n n i n g process f o r such a system, t h e q u e s t i o n s o f o u r q u e s t i o n n a i r e w i l l be answered i n sequence.

2. Planning Stage 1: Pro jec t In i t ia t ion and Pre l im inary Planning

Question 1:

The p r o j e c t was i n i t i a t e d t h r o u g h two developments: t h e p r o v i s i o n o f t h e l e g a l framework f o r f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n measures t h r o u g h s t a t e and f e d e r a l laws, w h i c h r e g u 1 a t e t h e f i n a n c i a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y and t h e p rocedure fo r s e t t i n g up f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n systems. I n p a r t i c u l a r t h e laws r e q u i r e s e t t i n g up a d i s t r i c t formed by t h e p r o f i t i n g communi t ies , wh ich must pay 30% o f t h e c o s t , w h i l e t h e r e s t o f t h e c o s t i s covered by s t a t e and f e d e r a l sou rces , s u b j e c t t o a p p r o v a l by t h e S t a t e P a r l i a m e n t . I n t h i s sense, t h e p r o j e c t i s p a r t o f a l o n g range p l a n t o p r o t e c t a l l c i t i z e n s o f t h e c o u n t r y a g a i n s t n a t u r a l d i s a s t e r . The second s t e p was t a k e n a f t e r a s e v e r e f l o o d i n 1970 caused e x t e n s i v e damage i n t h e c i t y o f Neckarsulm.

A f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n d i s t r i c t ( F P D ) was formed, wh ich agreed t o

d i s t r i b u t e t h e c o s t a c c o r d i n g t o a c o s t s h a r i n g p l a n worked o u t on t h e b a s i s o f s h a r e o f b e n e f i t s and f i n a n c i a l c a p a b i l i t y and n e g o t i a t e d by t h e l o c a l c o u n t y a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s . The d i s t r i c t i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e s t a t e w a t e r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n (SWA) worked o u t a p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n , s e t t i n g a s i d e p o s s i b l e s i t e s , and s u b m i t t e d i t f o r a p p r o v a l t o t h e S t a t e L e g i s l a t u r e w h i c h a u t h o r i z e d t h e p l a n n i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e system, a l l o w i n g a c e r t a i n budge t pe r year f o r S t a t e s u p p o r t - and t h u s , s i n c e Federa l Suppor t i s on a c o s t s h a r i n g pe rcen tage , a l s o f o r Federa l f u n d i n g . W i t h t h e g reen l i g h t t h u s g i v e n p l a n n i n g proceeded i n e a r n e s t , r e s u l t i n g i n t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l c a l c u l a t i o n s and t h e p l a n n i n g recommendations o f t h e IWK.

Question 2:

The s t a t e o f Baden-Wurttemberg m a i n t a i n s a competent s t a f f w i t h i n t h e a rea b u r e a u o f t h e SWA c a p a b l e o f hand1 i ng a l 1 t e c h n i c a l and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e t a s k s . The p u b l i c was i n v o l v e d , t h r o u g h t h e community

c o u n c i l s , i n t h e s e t t i n g up o f t h e FPD. The p u b l i c was t h u s i n v o l v e d i n d i r e c t l y .

Question 3:

D e c i s i o n c r i t e r i a were: what was i n t e r p r e t e d as t h e d e s i r e o f t h e p e o p l e t o b e p r o t e c t e d , w h i c h s u r f a c e d a f t e r t h e 1970 f l o o d , and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of funds . But perhaps t h e d e c i d i n g f a c t o r was t h a t t h e Audi-NSU works, w h i c h i n 1970 had s u f f e r e d a f l o o d damage o f abou t 10 M i l l . DM, t h r e a t e n e d t o move t o ano the r l o c a t i o n u n l e s s i t s s i t e i n Neckarsulm was p r o t e c t e d a g a i n s t f l o o d s s i m i l a r t o t h e I970 f l o o d . S ince one r e s e r v o i r ( B r e i t e n a u , see F i g . 1 ) was l a r g e enough t o c o n t a i n more t h a n t h e 100 year f l o o d o f t h e ups t ream r e g i o n , s t o r a g e i n i t was s e t a s i d e f o r low f l o w augmen ta t i on f o r e x c e p t i o n a l l y d r y yea rs , w h i c h d u r i n g o r d i n a r y yea rs a l l o w e d some u t i l i z a t i o n f o r r e c r e a t i o n .

Question 4:

The c o n s t r a i n t s were s e t b y t h e l and a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e system, by t h e f a c t t h a t due t o o t h e r

v i n e y a r d s i n t h e area) one o f t h e r e s e r v o i r s had t o be s t a r t e d b e f o r e

r e s e r v o i r s i n t h e r i v e r had a l r e a d y been c o n s t r u c t e d b e f o r e 1970, and funds were a v a i l a b l e t o s t a r t t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f one b a s i n r i g h t away. The p l a n n e r ( t h e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e SWA) had t o make p r e l i m i n a r y d e c i s i o n s w i t h o u t t h e b e n e f i t of a sound h y d r o l o g i c a l b a s i s .

a c t i v i t i e s ( r e c u l t i v a t i on o f

p l a n n i n g was comple ted , two

Question 5:

The m a i n e x p e r t s on t h e p r o j e c t were: t h e w a t e r r e s e r v o i r p l a n n e r and h y d r o l o g i c a n a l y s t , i . e . t h e I W K , and t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f t h e S W A , i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e , who a l s o p r o v i d e d t h e l i a i s o n t o t h e h i g h e r eche lons and t o t h e FPD. A l l t e c h n i c a l d e c i s i o n s and models were d i s c u s s e d w i t h h i m and o c c a s i o n a l l y w i t h members o f t h e r e g i ona 1 a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . Acco rd ing t o t h e

a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e t h e dec is ion-maker on t e c h n a s p e c t s i s t h e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t He f u l l y coopera ted and accep ted r e s u l t s o f t h e p l a n n i n g h y d r o l o g

S W A ca 1 ve. t h e s t .

3. Planning Stage 2: Data Collection and Processing

Question 6:

The d a t a base f o r t h e s t u d y c o n s i s t e d o f h y d r o l o g i c a l d a t a on r a i n f a l l ( r a i n f a l l gages w i t h d a i l y t o t a l s measured everyday , and r e c o r d i n g gages) and r u n o f f ( r u n o f f gages a t t h e l o c a t i o n s shown i n F i g . 1 ) . The r a i n f a l l gages w i t h roman numera ls had been observed fo r 7 yea rs , b u t l o n g te rm r e c o r d s f rom 1950 -1977 were a v a i l a b l e a t s t a t i o n s near t h e Sulm area and were used t o o b t a i n l o n g te rm s t a t i s t i c s . For l ong te rm r u n o f f s t a t i s t i c s t h e r u n o f f gage a t Neckarsulm was used f o r t h e p e r i o d 1956 - 1977.

A l l yea rs o f t h e r e c o r d s were used t o o b t a i n extreme v a l u e s t a t i s t i c s , and t o i d e n t i f y f l o o d s and shapes o f f l o o d waves. The ne twork d e n s i t y w i t h 1 8 ra ingages f o r 110 km 2 was f a r l a r g e r than average, because a f t e r t h e f l o o d o f 1970 the a r e a had been made a s t u d y a r e a o f t h e m i n i s t r y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e water a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . I t i s more usua l t o have r a i n gages one e v e r y 100 t o 500 km 2 . Also, t h e runof f gages on t h e sma l l c reeks a r e an unusual f e a t u r e , b u t t hey p e r m i t t e d t o r e g i o n a l i z e r u n o f f u n i t hydrogrphs , and t h e d a t a have been used (by us) t o work o u t more g e n e r a l r a i n f a l l - r u n o f f r e l a t i o n s . Economic d a t a were n o t r e q u i r e d , e x c e p t f o r t h e c o s t o f c o n s t r u c t i o n f o r t h e r e s e r v o i r s . The v e r y dense ne twork o f gages was s e t up w i t h t h e a d d i t i o n a l purpose o f y i e l d i n g i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e r e q u i r e d ne twork d e n s i t y f o r s t u d i e s o f t h e same k i n d as t h e one r e p o r t e d on.

Question 7:

For f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n s t u d i e s f l o o d waves o f c e r t a i n exceedance p r o b a b i 1 i t i e s a r e requ i red . N a t u r a l l y , such d a t a had t o be

o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e b a s i c d a t a by ex t reme v a l u e a n a l y s i s o f t h e r a i n f a l l and r u n o f f da ta . The f l o o d waves were o b t a i n e d by u s i n g r a i n f a l l waves c a l i b r a t e d a g a i n s t measured waves, whose a rea was o b t a i ned f rom a genera 1 i zed d e p t h - a r e a - d u r a t i o n c u r v e f o r r a i n f a l l s o f d i f f e r e n t exceedance p r o b a b i 1 i t i e s o f t he a r e a ' s sub reg ions . A c o n s t a n t r u n o f f c o e f f i c i e n t was used w h i c h was de te rm ined f r o m a c o a x i a l - d i a g r a m o f t h e a rea , and a r e g i o n a l i z e d u n i t - h y d r o g r a p h was used t o o b t a i n t h e r u n o f f hydrograph. When p o s s i b l e , t h e ex t reme v a l u e o f t h e c a l c u l a t e d r u n o f f hydrograph was checked a g a i n s t t h e extreme v a l u e o f t h e measured r u n o f f o f t h e same exceedance p r o b a b i l i t y and t h e c o a x i a l - d i a g r a m was ( s l i g h t l y ) a d j u s t e d t o improve agreement. The d a t a c o l l e c t i o n c o n t i n u e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e p l a n n i n g s tage , and f l o o d s were used t o v e r i f y u n i t hydrographs ( u s u a l l y w i t h l i t t l e need o f a d j u s t m e n t ) , i n p a r t i c u l a r a ma jo r f l o o d i n 1978 w h i c h proved t o be a n even t whose p r o b a b i l i t y o f b e i n g exceeded was about once i n 50 years .

Question 8:

No OR t e c h n i q u e s were used t o d e t e r m i n e t h e method o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , b u t t h e u n u s u a l l y l a r g e amount o f a v a i l a b l e d a t a t r i g g e r e d a number o f s t u d i e s : on t h e optimum c o n t r o 1 o f f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n r e s e r v o i r s 131, on t h e d e n s i t y o f ne tworks r e q u i r e d f o r f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n work , on t h e accu racy o f r a i n f a l l d e t e r m i n a t i o n f rom ne tworks o f d i f f e r e n t d e n s i t y . However, t h e s tudy i t s e l f d i d n o t r e q u i r e OR techn iques i n t h e da ta a n a l y s i s s tage o t h e r t h a n l e a s t squares ana lyses used f o r c u r v e f i t t i n g s .

Question 9:

The o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n o f t h e s tudy d i d n o t r e q u i r e c r i t e r i a d a t a . I n p a r t i c u l a r , d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n o f t h e s t u d y were n o t c o o r d i n a t e d . As has been s t a t e d b e f o r e : t h e r e e x i s t i n Germany ne tworks o f r a i n f a l l and r u n o f f gages wh ich a r e opera ted by t h e

M e t e o r o l o g i c a l S e r v i c e and t h e s t a t e Water A u t h o r i t i e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . I t m i g h t be i n t e r e s t i n g t o ponder t h e h i s t o r y o f t h e s e n e t w o r k s : c e r t a i n l y t h e i r o r i g i n a t o r s had no n o t i o n o f t h e purposes f o r w h i c h t h e d a t a b a s i s i s b e i n g used today .

Question 70:

The p r o j e c t se rved t o d e v e l o p a f l o o d

c a l c u l a t i o n s f o r m u 1 t i s i t e r e s e r v o i r s . The method c o n s i s t e d o f a d a p t i n g an a rea r a i n f a l l - r u n o f f model t o t h e S u l m a rea , by u s i n g t h e r e g i o n a l i z e d u n i t hyd rog raphs d e s c r i b e d above f o r each o f t h e r e s e r v o i r s w h i c h were l o c a t e d on t r i b u t a r i e s , and by u s i n g l i n e a r f l o o d r o u t i n g f o r t h e r i v e r p a r t s between t h e r e s e r v o i r s on t h e main r i v e r . Models o f t h i s k i n d had been deve loped i n d i f f e r e n t p a r t s o f t h e F G R ( S c h u l t z 141, Bogard i e t a l . 151, Schroeder and E u l e r 161.

h y d r o l o g i c a l method o f

4. Planning Stage 3: Formulation and Screening of Project Alternatives

The p r o j e c t a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r case were g i v e n by d i f f e r e n t comb ina t ions o f r e s e r v o i r s , w i t h o n l y r e s e r v o i r B r e i t e n a u used a l s o f o r low f l o w augmenta t ion . Cons i d e r a t i on was g i v e n t o use t h e low f l o w s t o r a g e f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l purposes , a l t h o u g h t h e o p i n i o n s on t h i s were mixed. A l though i t was r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e a rea wou ld b e n e f i t e c o n o m i c a l l y t o some e x t e n t , due t o t h e p u r c h a s i n g power o f v i s i t o r s , t h e r e were f e a r s , b o r n o u t o f exper iences i n nearby r e g i o n s , t h a t t h e v i s i t o r s wou ld p l a c e a bu rden on t h e env i ronmen t , and t h a t t h e main tenance o f p a r k i n g zones, beaches, and t h e l i k e wou ld c o s t more t h a n wou ld be g a i n e d by t h e r e g i o n - i n p a r t i c u l a r s i n c e most v i s i t o r s wou ld come f r o m nearby l a r g e c i t i e s l o c a t e d o u t s i d e of t h e r e g i o n . However, because i t was f e l t t h a t t h e r e s e r v o i r wou ld be used r e c r e a t i o n a l l y anyway, t h e d e c i s i o n was made, t o e s t a b l i s h r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s a t t h e l a k e s . But no d e t a i l e d b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s o r any o t h e r p l a n n i n g

i n s t r u m e n t was used t o s u p p o r t t h e d e c i s i o n . The answers t o p e r t i n e n t q u e s t i o n s o f t h i s s e c t i o n r e f e r t o t h e a l t e r n a t i v e c o m b i n a t i o n s o f r e s e r v o i r s o n l y .

Questions 7 7 and 12.

The a l t e r n a t i v e s were i n v e s t i g a t e d b y t h e h y d r o l o g i s t s o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f K a r l s r u h e . I n p a r t s u p p o r t e d b y s t a t e funds f o r t h e p r o j e c t , and p a r t l y b y r e s e a r c h money f r o m t h e German Sc ience A s s o c i a t i o n s , a number o f s t a f f members worked o u t t h e programs. A l l i n a l l , a t o t a l o f abou t 6 man y e a r s were used, o f wh ich o n l y a f r a c t i o n o f abou t 9 man months was used f o r t h e a c t u a l p r o j e c t , t h e r e s t b e i n g used f o r r e s e a r c h . The computer f a c i 1 i t i e s o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Kar 1 s r u h e a r e a v a i l a b l e , f r e e o f charge, as t h e U n i v e r s i t y p r o v i d e s t h i s s e r v i c e f o r r e s e a r c h and s i n c e t h e U n i v e r s i t y i s a s t a t e i n s t i t u t i o n , o t h e r s t a t e i n s t i t u t i o n s l i k e t h e L W A can be s e r v i c e d b y t h e U n i v e r s i t y ( i n t h i s case by t h e IWK) .

Question 73:

A t t h i s s t a g e o f t h e p l a n n i n g process , no d i r e c t c i t i z e n p a r t i c i p a t i o n took p l a c e . But i n d i r e c t l y , o f cou rse , t h e c i t i z e n s had a l r e a d y r e s t r i c t e d t h e p o s s i b l e s i t e s and s i z e s o f t h e r e s e r v o i r s , w h i c h were e n t e r e d as f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . Thus i t was p o s s i b l e f o r t h e m o d e l l e r t o reduce t h e s i z e or th row o u t a l t o g e t h e r some of t h e r e s e r v o i r s , b u t n o t t o i n c r e a s e them n o r t o s e l e c t new and a d d i t i o n a l l o c a t i o n s .

Question 14:

A t o t a l o f 7 a l t e r n a t i v e s were i n v e s t i g a t e d . The o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e s t u d y were t o o b t a i n a maximum p r o t e c t i o n a t t h e l e a s t i n c r e m e n t a l c o s t . For example, i f b y b u i l d i n g an a d d i t i o n a l r e s e r v o i r t h e f l o o d downstream c o u l d be changed b y o n l y a few p e r c e n t , i t was c o n s i d e r e d more u s e f u l t o i n c r e a s e t h e c a p a c i t y o f t h e c r e e k s s l i g h t l y r a t h e r t h a n

t o buy an e x p e n s i v e r e s e r v o i r . The dec i s i o n o n t h e f eas i b 1 e a l t e r n a t i v e s were d i s c u s s e d between t h e IWK and t h e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e S W A .

Question 15:

The h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e was f a i r l y s i m p l e . S ince t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e d e c i s i o n p rocess i s s e t by law, t h e d e c i s i o n r e s t s w i t h t h e d i s t r i c t b o a r d wh ich i s adv i sed by t h e S W A . The IWK and t h e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e S W A t o g e t h e r worked o u t t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s t o be s u b j e c t e d t o d e t a i l e d s t u d y and t h e ones t o be p r e s e n t e d t o t h e eche lons o f t h e S W A . The f i n a l p r o j e c t p l a n was deve loped i n a j o i n t mee t ing o f I W K , a l l l e v e l s of t h e SWA w i t h i n t e r e s t i n t h e case, and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f t h e FPD.

Question 16:

Al ready d i s c u s s e d i n answer ing q u e s t i o n 10

Questions 77 and 18:

The method employed was s i mu 1 a t i on b y means o f des i gn r a i n f a l l s o f d i f f e r e n t exceedance p r o b a b i l i t y . The r e s u l t s o f each a l t e r n a t i v e were s c r u t i n i z e d b y t h e p l a n n i n g team, and t h e a l t e r n a t i v e was s e l e c t e d wh ich seemed, by i n t u i t i o n , t o meet most o f t h e purposes and c o n s t r a i n t s . There was no OR method employed i n t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s .

Question 79:

Al though t h e S W A and t h e FPD sha re t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r p r o p o s i n g t h e f i n a l p r o j e c t , t h e recommendations a r e m o s t l y t hose of t h e model b u i l d e r (IWK). The reason i s t h a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y i s cons ide red most q u a l i f i e d t o s o l v e complex p l a n n i n g prob lems. The d e c i s i o n t o implement t h e s t u d y i s made b y t h e F P D w i t h f i n a l app rova l r e q u i r e d by t h e r e s p o n s i b l e m i n i s t r y b e f o r e a c t u a l c o n s t r u c t i o n , as i s d e s c r i b e d i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h q u e s t i o n 27 be low.

Question 20:

Most o f t h e p l a n n e r s were c i v i l eng inee rs o r h y d r a u l i c eng inee rs . However, t h r o u g h t h e h e a r i n g men t ioned i n q u e s t i o n 2 7 , e x p e r t s o f o t h e r agenc ies a r e i nc luded , b u t t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n s a r e made m o s t l y d u r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g s tage 4 .

5. Planning Stage 4: Development of Final Project Specifications

Whereas s t a g e 3 was des igned t o g i v e a b a s i s f o r s e l e c t i n g t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s most l i k e l y t o s a t i s f y t h e o b j e c t i v e s , s t a g e 4 i s concerned w i t h t h e d e t a i l e d i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e f i n a l p l a n . I t must be r e a l i z e d t h a t s t a g e 3 i s a s t a g e i n wh ich n o t a l l t h e d a t a a r e used, no r a r e a l l necessary c a l c u l a t i o n s made. I n s tage 3 o n l y t h o s e aspec ts a r e covered w h i c h v a r y f r o m a l t e r n a t i v e t o a l t e r n a t i v e , and t h e f i n a l d e c i s i o n f o r s t a g e 3 i s made n o t on t h e d e t a i l e d p l a n , b u t on t h e b a s i s o f p r e l i m i n a r y d raw ings .

The aspec ts wh ich a r e i n v e s t i g a t e d i n s t a g e 4 a r e f i r s t t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f o p e r a t i o n r u l e s , t h e n t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e system under a g i v e n s e t o f o p e r a t i o n r u l e s f o r f l o o d s o f d i f f e r e n t r e c u r r e n c e i n t e r v a l s . F i n a l l y , t h e optimum sequence o f b u i l d i n g o f t h e r e s e r v o i r s was dec ided on.

Question 21:

OR methods were employed f o r d e t e r m i n i n g t h e optimum o p e r a t i o n r u l e s . I t was assumed t h a t t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l model d e s c r i b e d i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h q u e s t i o n 10 p r o v i d e d t h e f l o o d waves f o r wh ich t h e system had t o o p e r a t e o p t i m a l l y . O r i g i n a l l y , an a c t i v e c o n t r o l was env isaged b y means o f wh ich t h e o p e r a t i o n o f a l l r e s e r v o i r s was t o be c o n t r o l 1 ed. The o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n chosen was t h e o p e r a t i o n wh ich m i n i m i z e d t h e f l o o d peaks o f t h e f l o o d wave r e l e a s e d f r o m t h e r e s e r v o i r ( P l a t e and S c h u l t z 131) .

The method was o r i g i n a l l y based on t w o r e s e r v o i r s o n l y , b u t i n a l a t e r s t u d y (Meyer-Zurwel l e d 1 7 ; ) i t was ex tended t o up t o 16 r e s e r v o i r s . I n c r e m e n t a l dynamic programming was used, and a p p l i e d t o a g roup o f 4 r e s e r v o i r s each o f w h i c h b e i n g a lumped group o f up t o 4 r e s e r v o i r s . The o p e r a t i o n o f t h e lumped g r o u p was f i r s t d e t e r m i n e d as i f i t c o n s i s t e d o f a s i n g l e r e s e r v o i r , and a f t e r w a r d s t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n w i t h i n t h e 4 r e s e r v o i r s o f t h e lumped g r o u p was made w i t h t h e sha re o f t h e f l o o d a l l o t t e d t o t h e g roup d u r i n g t h e f i r s t o p t i m i z a t i o n s t e p f o r m i n g t h e c o n s t r a i n t s t o t h e subproblem. The improved o p e r a t i o n o f t h e g r o u p t h e n was once more lumped and i t e r a t i v e l y t h e prob lem o f 4 lumped r e s e r v o i r g roups and t h e p rob lem o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f l o o d s w i t h i n t h e groups was s o l v e d u n t i l f u r t h e r i t e r a t i o n s b r o u g h t no a d d i t i o n a l improvement. I t t u r n e d o u t t h a t t h e g a i n i n system per fo rmance o f a 16 r e s e r v o i r system as compared t o a sys tem i n wh ich each r e s e r v o i r i s o p e r a t e d i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f a l l o t h e r s was r a t h e r s m a l l , because o f t h e s m a l l s i z e o f t h e catchment and t h e s h o r t d i s t a n c e s between r e s e r v o i r s . Recent r e s e a r c h i n t h e Federa l R e p u b l i c o f Germany i s d i r e c t e d t o f i n d i n g o p e r a t i n g r u l e s t h a t work a d o p t i v e l y on t h e b a s i s o f a r a i n f a l l f o r e c a s t and t h e f o r e c a s t o f hyd rog raph parameters . Radar methods a r e b e i n g employed for t h e r a i n f a l l f o r e c a s t s ( S c h u l t z , Ander l e t a l . I 8 I ) . Real t i m e runof f f o r e c a s t s a r e deve loped on t h e b a s i s o f Kalman f i l t e r s . However, t h e r e s u l t s a r e n o t y e t s a t i s f a c t o r y enough t o y i e l d methods f o r systems as s m a l l a s t h e one d e s c r i b e d , and t h e r e e x i s t s some d o u b t t h a t i t w i l l eve r be u s e f u l t o use f o r e c a s t s f o r a system t h a t needs t o be o p e r a t e d o p t i m a l l y once on t h e ave rage e v e r y 30 t o 100 years . W i t h t h i s i n mind, a d i f f e r e n t method was employed b y f i n d i n g o p e r a t i o n r u l e s based on t h e

o u t 1 e t h y d r a u l i c s o f usua 1 s t r u c t u r e s and s p i 1 lways f o r r e s e r v o i r s w h i c h a r e s e t permanent i n such a way t h a t t h e systems pe r fo rmance under t h e s e t of 100 years d e s i g n f l o o d s was as c l o s e as

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p o s s i b l e t o t h e optimum. T h i s was found b y t r i a l and e r r o r .

O p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h methods were a l s o used t o d e c i d e t h e optimum sequence o f c o n s t r u c t i o n . The o r i g i n a l i dea was t o o p t i m i z e sequence and s c h e d u l i n g i n such a way t h a t s a v i n g s due t o postponement o f c o n s t r u c t i o n were ba 1 anced a g a i n s t p o s s i b l e l osses i n c u r r e d i f a f l o o d wou ld happen b e f o r e t h e r e s e r v o i r was comple ted . T h i s p rob lem was f o r m u l a t e d and a s o l u t i o n deve loped based on branch-and-bound techn iques (Bogardi 1 9 ; ) . However, t h e r e were t w o hand icaps w h i c h p r e v e n t e d t h e e x e c u t i o n o f t h i s programme: t h e l a c k o f economic d a t a on l o s s e s , and t h e f i n a n c i a l c o n s t r a i n t s imposed on t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n , f o r w h i c h t h e s t a t e has s e t a s i d e a c o n s t a n t amount eve ry year w i t h t h e t o t a l t o b e expended a f t e r 10 yea rs . T h e r e f o r e , t h e f i n a l d e c i s i o n on t h e sequence was made on t h e b a s i s o f e f f i c i e n c y o f f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n a t t h e c r i t i c a l p o i n t ( t h e Audi-NSU a u t o m o b i l e works i n t h e c i t y o f Neckarsu lm a t t h e mouth o f t h e Sulm r i v e r ) : t hose r e s e r v o i r s were b u i l t f i r s t , wh ich b r o u g h t t h e l a r g e s t f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n g a i n a t t h a t p o i n t . I n case o f equa l b e n e f i t , a s e r i e s o f o t h e r c r i t i c a l p o i n t s were i d e n t i f i e d ( v i 1 l age c e n t e r s o r i n d u s t r i a l a r e a s on p a r t s o f t h e S u l m o r i t s t r i b u t a r i e s w i t h sma l l f l o o d channe ls ) and t h a t r e s e r v o i r p l a c e d f i r s t i n t h e sequence o f t h e r e m a i n i n g r e s e r v o i r s w h i c h wou ld cause maximum b e n e f i t s a t o t h e r c r i t i c a l p o i n t s .

There i s no q u e s t i o n t h a t a l l t h e methods employed had been used b e f o r e . However, t h e p rob lem had n o t been posed i n t h e same f o r m s o t h a t most o f t h e e x i s t i n g methods had t o be adapted , and no a l g o r i t h m e x i s t e d w h i c h c o u l d be employed s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d l y , e x c e p t o f cou rse such r o u t i n e programs as used f o r m a t r i x c a l c u l a t i o n s . I t seems t o us t h a t i n s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n s o n l y t h e l o g i c as employed by u s i s f e a s i b l e : t o g e n e r a t e , on t h e b a s i s o f h y d r o l o g i c a l models, f a m i l i e s o f f l o o d hyd rog raphs , f o r each o f wh ich

t h e r e s e r v o i r s y s t e m ' s optimum o p e r a t i o n r u l e s based on p e r f e c t f o r e c a s t s a r e found. These r u l e s a r e then ana lysed t o f i n d t h e ones wh ich wou ld y i e l d t h e b e s t non -adop t i ve o p e r a t i n g r u l e s . There maybe d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e methods o f a n a l y s i s due t o t h e s i t u a t i o n encountered and t h e d a t a base a v a i l a b l e ( b u t a h y d r o l o g i c d a t a base as e x t e n s i v e as t h e one used f o r t h e p r e s e n t s t u d i e s i s u s u a l l y n o t r e q u i r e d . U n f o r t u n t e l y a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f t h e r e q u i r e d s i z e o f a ne twork f o r sma l l a reas i s s t i l l n o t a v a i l a b l e ) . '

Question 22:

No c o s t b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s was made. I n any case, i t i s f e l t t h a t t h e b a s i c d e c i s i o n o f b u i l d i n g t h e system has l i t t l e t o do w i t h c o s t - b e n e f i t , s i n c e a l t e r n a t i v e ways o f f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n ( o b j e c t p r o t e c t i o n , f l o o d insurance) m i g h t be most c o s t e f f e c t i v e . More i m p o r t a n t a r e t h e concern o f t h e pub1 i c and t h e ava i l a b i 1 i t y o f f unds . F l ood p r o t e c t i o n i n t h e FRG i s a p o l i t i c a l i s s u e on t h e one hand, and a m a t t e r o f economics on t h e o t h e r hand. Economics e n t e r f o r example i f an i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t i s t o be l o c a t e d i n a f l o o d p r o n e area .

But i t shou ld b e ment ioned t h a t t h e Federa l Water Law r e q u i r e s t h a t a l l p r o j e c t s be s u b j e c t e d t o a c o s t b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s . Because o f t h i s requ i remen t , one o f t h e most i n t e n s i v e a r e a o f f l o o d r e s e a r c h i n t h e Federa l R e p u b l i c o f Germany i s concerned w i t h t h e economic s i d e o f f l o o d s (Buck e t a l . , 1 9 ; ) . There a r e a number o f r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t s i n t h i s area, and a t t e m p t s a r e b e i n g made by d i f f e r e n t g roups t o o b t a i n t h e necessary funds t o conduct case s t u d i e s .

Question 23:

N e i t h e r r i s k a n a l y s i s nor impact a n a l y s i s was per fo rmed. German a u t h o r i t i e s c o n s i d e r t h a t r i s k a n a l y s i s i s n o t r e q u i r e d f o r p u b l i c wa te r works i f t h e s tandards ( D I N 19700) a r e met. However, t h e r e i s a t p r e s e n t c o n s i d e r a b l e concern

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t o p r o v i d e a u n i f i e d b a s i s of r i s k a n a l y s i s f o r a l l p u b l i c works . The Federa l M i n i s t r y on Research and Technology i s sponsor ing a r e s e a r c h program on r i s k a n a l y s i s , and f i r s t a t t e m p t s have been made t o p r o v i d e a framework o f r i s k a n a l y s i s app l i c a b l e t o f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n r e s e r v o i r s on t h e b a s i s o f r e l i a b i l i t y t h e o r y ( P l a t e I 1 1 I .

An env i ronmen ta l i mpac t a n a l y s i s has n o t been pe r fo rmed . The r e s e r v o i r s a r e b lended i n t o t h e landscape, landscape a r c h i t e c t u r e i s h e a v i l y employed. Water q u a l i t y problems a r i s e o n l y i n c o n t e x t w i t h t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l l y f i l l e d r e s e r v o i r s , and a program w i l l be s e t up b y t h e SWA and t h e FPO t o su rvey and i f necessary c o n t r o l t h e q u a l i t y of t h e w a t e r . I n f a c t , t h e u s e f u l n e s s o f t h i s survey became obv ious soon a f t e r c o m p l e t i o n o f t h e r e s e r v o i r B r e i t e n a u , i n w h i c h a s h a l l o w a r e a was found e u t r o p i e d a f t e r a few months, and wh ich had t o be deepened by a d d i t i o n a l e x c a v a t i o n . However, t h i s i s n o t p a r t o f t h e p lannng. Other env i ronmen ta l concerns , v o i c e d a t t h e h e a r i n g ment ioned i n q u e t i o n 27 c o u l d b e met i n t h e f i n a l d e s i g n s tage. As a r e s u l t o f o b j e c t i o n s by e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t s , one o f t h e r e s e r v o i r s was e l i m i n a t e d t o p r o t e c t a w e t l a n d area. A l s o a r c h e o l o g i s t s expec ted t o f i n d t r a c e s o f a n c i e n t s e t t l e m e n t s a t some o f t h e s i t e s , and s p e c i a l c a r e was used d u r i n g e x c a v a t i o n s , b u t n o t h i n g was found.

Question 24:

The s e l e c t i o n o f t h e f i n a l p l a n has a l r e a d y been made i n p r i n c i p l e a t t h e end o f s t a g e 3. Here, o n l y t h e f i n a l o p e r a t i o n r u l e s and f i n a l s i z e s were de te rm ined , wh ich was m o s t l y a t e c h n i c a l m a t t e r dec ded by t h e S W A i n c o n s u l t a t i o n w t h t h e I W K . Smal l changes occu r red n t h e d e s i g n s t a g e f o l l o w i n g s tage 4 . b u t t hey were d e a l t w i t h l o c a l l y .

Question 26:

The d e c i s i o n made f o l l o w e d t o t h e l e t t e r t h e recommendation o f t h e IWK. T h i s i s because t h e f i n a l r e p o r t i n w h i c h t h e recommendat ions were put down was p r e p a r e d i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e SWA. A f i r s t d r a f t was s e n t t o them f o r comments, i f t h e y f e l t t h a t t h e y were u n a b l e t o a c c e p t one o f t h e recommendat ions. A compromise was found i n wh ich t h e h y d r o l o g y was n o t q u e s t i o n e d b u t a r e d u c t i o n was made 1 oca 1 1 y o f exceedance probab i 1 i t y for t h e f l o o d r e t u r n e d b y t h e r e s e r v o i r a c c o r d i n g t o t h e v a l u e o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s i n t h e f l o o d e d a r e a . No OR t e c h n i q u e s were used f o r t h i s .

Question 27:

Approva l t o t h e f i n a l p l a n i s g i v e n b y t h e c o u n t y a d m i n i s t r a t o r (Landra t ) on t h e b a s i s o f t h e p l a n s s u b m i t t e d and approved by t h e FPD. The L a n d r a t ' s a p p r o v a l i s g i v e n f o r each r e s e r v o i r s e p a r a t e l y , and o n l y i f t h e r e a r e no o b j e c t i o n s t o t h e p r o j e c t f r o m o t h e r p o t e n t i a l u s e r s , w h i c h m i g h t be p r i v a t e p a r t i e s o r o t h e r Government agenc ies l i k e t h e S t a t e Highway Department o r t h e Department o f Env i ronmen ta l P r o t e c t i o n . I n o r d e r t o c o o r d i n a t e a l l o b j e c t i o n s , a p u b l i c h e a r i n g i s conduc ted (ca 1 1 ed " P l a n f e s t - s t u l l u n g s v e r f a h r e n " or "Procedure o f f i n a l i z i n g t h e Plan") i n wh ich t h e c o u n t y a d m i n i s t r a t o r (Landra t ) or a more d i r e c t r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e r e s p o n s i b l e m i n i s t r y ( o f Env i ronment and A g r i c u l t u r e ) i s t r y i n g t o s e t t l e a l l open q u e s t i o n s and t o d e c i d e on pend ing i s s u e s . A t t h i s h e a r i n g , t h e p u b l i c i s i n v i t e d , and a l l o b j e c t i o n s can be v o i c e d by anyone. The s t a t e can r e f u t e o r c o n f i r m t h e o b j e c t i o n upon h e a r i n g o f e x p e r t w i t n e s s e s . I f a l l o b j e c t i o n s a r e met, t h e p l a n i s accepted ; i f some o f t h e o b j e c t i o n s a r e n o t met b u t o v e r r u l e d b y t h e o f f i c i a l , t h e p l a n i s a l s o accepted , b u t t h e o v e r r u l i n g m i g h t b e appea led t o a c o u r t , w h i c h i s independent o f t h e m i n i s t r y .

Question 28:

Fund ing was done th rough a p a r t o f t h e budget earmarked f o r f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n . T h i s i s d i s t r i b u t e d by t h e r e s p o n s i b l e m i n i s t r y over a l l

Baden-Wurttemberg, a c c o r d i n g t o a l i s t o f p r i o r i t y worked o u t i n t h e m i n i s t r y . The p r e s e n t p r o j e c t r e c e i v e s about 2 M i l l . DM per year , and c o n s t r u c t i o n must p rog ress a c c o r d i n g t o a v a i l a b i l i t y o f funds . The t o t a l c o n s t r u c t i o n w i l l be completed i n 1990.

p r o j e c t s i n t h e s t a t e o f

Question 29:

Due t o t h e a l e r t n e s s and t h e pe rsona l i n t e r e s t o f t h e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e S W A , t h e p r o j e c t i s c l o s e l y s u p e r v i s e d and improved th rough l o c a l e f f o r t s . An a u t o m a t i c f l o o d w a r n i n g system i s b e i n g i n s t a l l e d . And a f t e r each f l o o d ( i n p a r t i c u l a r l y a f t e r t h e 1978 f l o o d ) a c a r e f u l e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e system per fo rmance i s c a r r i e d o u t , i n c l u d i n g a r e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e h y d r o l o g y a f t e r t h e 1978 f l o o d by t h e IWK.

6 Planning Stage 5: Project Design

Question 30:

The p l a n n i n g r e s u l t s - i n c l u d e d : t h e s i z e s o f t h e r e s e r v o i r s , t h e o p e r a t i o n r u l e s f o r t h e r e s e r v o i r s , t h e maximum d i s c h a r g e s i n t h e r i v e r s and cana 1 s connect i ng t h e r e s e r v o i r s . A lso , t h e sequence o f

b u i l d ng the r e s e r v o i r s was dec ided. W i t h t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n , t h e SWA usua l y wou ld make a l i m i t e d compe i t i o n , i n v i t i n g renowned c o n s u l t i n g f i r m s t o b i d on t h e d e s i g n , and on t h e s u p e r v i s i o n o f t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n . The s u c c e s s f u l b i d d e r then would p r e p a r e t h e drawings , s u b j e c t t o approva l by t h e S W A , and t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n was i n i t i a t e d t h e r e a f t e r . In t h e p r e s e n t case, t h e SWA had t h e e x p e r i e n c e and t h e man-power t o do t h e des igns i t s e l f , and b i d s were reques ted on t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o n l y . The system i s under c o n s t r u c t i o n , a t o t a l o f 5 r e s e r v o i r s have been b u i l t , and t h e p a r t i a l l y completed system, c o n t a i n i n g t h e b i g g e s t r e s e r v o i r ( B r e i t e n a u ) , a l r e a d y had i t s f i r s t success when an ext reme f l o o d (exceedance p r o b a b i l i t y i n some l o c a l i t i e s o f once i n 70 or more years) o c c u r r e d i n 1978.

I n f a c t , c a l c u l a t i o n s a f t e r t h i s event have shown t h a t i f t h e Audi-NSU works had been s u b j e c t e d t o t h e same f l o o d w i t h t h e r e s e r v o i r system e x i s t i n g i n 1970, t h e damage a t t h i s l o c a t i o n a l o n e would have been 90 M i l l i o n OM - exceeding t h e c o s t o f t h e system by about a f a c t o r o f 8.

Acknowledgement

The success o f t h e p r o j e c t i s i n l a r g e p a r t due t o t h e e f f o r t s o f t h e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e SWA, M r . H. T r o s t , W a s e r w i r t s c h a f t - samt H e i l b r o n n . He a l s o p r o v i d e d many d e t a i l s o f t h i s r e p o r t .

References

1 1 1

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141

151

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E . Mosonyi e t a l . 1979 "Empf eh 1 ungen f u r d i e Ber ec hnungen der E H o c h w a s s e r w a h r s c h e i n l i c h k e i t (Recommenda t i on f o r t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f f l o o d p r o b a b i l i t i e s ) Committee on Des i gn F 1 oods, DVWK (German Water Resources Assoc .) Recommendation N r . 101

G.J. Seus and W . Bauch 1971 "On t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f t h e des ign o f s t o r a g e areas a t r i v e r dams" Proc . 14. Congress I n t e r v a l 1 Assoc. o f H y d r a u l i c Research, P a r i s Vo l . 5 pp. 263-292.

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191 E . P l a t e and G . A . S c h u l t z 1972 " F l o o d C o n t r o l P o l i c i e s Development by S i m u l a t i o n " . Proceed i ngs 2 nd I n t e r n . Hydro logy Symposium, F o r t Col 1 i ns, USA, pp. 246-258.

M. B imark, J. Bogard i , and E.J. P l a t e 1979 "An I n t e g r a t e d Channe 1 and R e s e r v o i r R o u t i n g Model Us ing Generated Mu 1 t i s i t e P r e c i p i t a t i o n Data as I n p u t " I n : H y d r a u l i c E n g i n e e r i n g i n Water Resources Development and Management. Proceedings, 18 th IAHR Congress, C a g l i a r i , I t a l y , V o l . 5 , pp. 287-294.

G . A . S c h u l t z 1968 "Bestimmung t h e o r e t i scher A b f l u s s g a n g l i n i e n du rch e l e k t r o n i s c h e Berechnung von N i e d e r s c h l a g s k o n z e n t r a t i o n und R e t e n t i o n (HYREUN-Verf ahren) . Ber i c h t N r . 1 1 der V e r s u c h s a n s t a l t f u r Wasserbau der T.U. Munchen.

R . CH. Schroder 1974 " D e t a i l l i e r t e h y d r o l o g i s c h e Model l e f u r i n s t a t i o n a r e N i e d e r s c h l a g - A b f l u s s Mode l le " D i e Bautechn ik 1974, pp. 30 1-306.

J .Meyer -Zurwe l le 1973" O p t i m u m r e l e a s e s t r a t e g i e s f o r systems o f f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n r e s e r v o i r s " . In : Research and p r a c t i c e i n t h e w a t e r env i ronment . Proc . o f t h g XV. I A H R Congr tess, I s t a n b u l 1973. V o l . 4, pp. 205-214.

B . Ander I, W . Attmannspacher, G . A . S c h u l t z 1976 "Accuracy o f r e s e r v o i r i n f l o w f o r e c a s t s based on rada r r a i n f a l l measurements". I n : Water Resources Research,

2 17-223. V o l . 12, No. 2, PP.

J .J . Bogard i 1979 " A Branch and Bound A l g o r i t h m t o F i n d Opt ima l C o n s t r u c t i o n Sequence f o r F lood C o n t r o l R e s e r v o i r s " . I n : H y d r a u l i c E n g i n e e r i n g i n Water Resources Development and Management. Proc . 1 8 t h I AHR Congress, Cagl i a r i , I t a l y , Vo l . 2 , pp. 55-62.

! l o ! W.Buch, J. K laus and R . F . Schmidtke (ed i t o r ) 1983,"Wasserwir t - s c h a f t l i c h e P r o j e k t b e w e r tung (Eva1 u a t i o n o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t s ) ". R e p o r t pub l i s h e d by t h e Deutsche Forschungsge- m e i n s c h a f t (German Research As soc i a t i on) on Water Research, M i t t e i l u n g N r . 5.

Comm i s s i on

1 1 1 1 E.J. P l a t e 1984 " R e l i a b i l i t y a n a l y s i s o f dam s a f e t y " i n " F r o n t i e r s i n H y d r o l o g y : ( L . E . Beard and W. Hal 1

Maxwel 1 : e d i t o r s ) Water . . r e s o u r c e s pub l i c a t i o n s pp. 288-304.

DEVELOPMENT OF WATER SUPPLY SCHEMES IN THE EASTERN NEGEV, ISRAEL: GENERAL DESCRIPTION

D. ALKAN, Tahal Consulting Engineers Limited Israel October 1982

1. Introduction

The E a s t e r n Negev r e g i o n cove rs some 2500 square k i l o m e t r e s o f d e s e r t l a n d i n South o f I s r a e l . I t i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by 1 arge d i f f e r e n c e s o f a l t i t u d e between + l 5 O m above m.s.1. i n t h e west and +600 i n t h e e a s t . The r e g i o n i n c l u d e s f i v e towns (160,000 i n h a b i t a n t s ) , t h i r t e e n v i l l a g e s w i t h e x t e n s i v e l y

i n d u s t r i a l c e n t e r s , m a i n l y chemica l , and two phosphate mines. The c l i m a t e of t h e r e g i o n i s a r i d ( l e s s t h a n 200 mm r a i n p .a . ) , t h u s wa te r requ i remen ts o f a l l user s e c t o r s a r e r e l a t i v e l y h i g h , w i t h a p e a k i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n .

i r r i g a t e d ag r i c u l t u r e , two

The a r e a i s a t p r e s e n t i n a r a p i d p rocess o f development and t h e annual wa te r demand i s expec ted t o doub le - f r o m abou t 50 MCM a t p r e s e n t t o about 100 MCM a t t h e end o f t h e decade. A major i n c r e a s e i s expec ted i n i n d u s t r i a l and m u n i c i p a l f r e s h wa te r demand.

The wa te r s u p p l i e d t o t h e r e g i o n comes from t h r e e sources: Impor t o f wa te r f rom t h e n o r t h v i a t h e n a t i o n a l w a t e r supp ly system (25% a t p r e s e n t ) , l o c a l g round water (65%) and r e c l a i m e d e f f l u e n t s f rom l o c a l sewage.

Fresh wa te r i s b e i n g s u p p l i e d b y two s e p a r a t e p i p e l i n e systems, one f e d b y l o c a l ground wa te r and t h e o t h e r by t h e n a t i o n a l system.

Bo th systems convey wa te r eas twards t h r o u g h l o n g l i n e s and a s e r i e s o f pumping s t a t i o n s t o overcome t h e l o n g d i s t a n c e s and l a r g e a l t i t u d e d i f f e r e n c e s .

The wa te r s u p p l y deve lopment p l a n was expec ted t o add ress t h e f o l l o w i n g i ssues :

a The d b e tween sou rces seasona

b . The

v i s i o n of s u p p l y l o c a l and i m p o r t e d

(annua 1 and 1 .

development and p o s s i b i l i t y o f i n t e r - c o n n e c t i o n between t h e t w o systems.

c . The sequenc ing Qf development i n t i m e and space.

d . The seasonal v a r i a t i o n i n t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e i n t e g r a t e d r e g i o n a l s u p p l y system.

S a l i n e groundwater and sewage e f f l u e n t s a r e a l s o used i n t h e r e g i o n , and a r e p a r t o f t h e development p l a n . However, i n t h e f o l l o w i n g o n l y t h e development of t h e f r e s h wa te r sys tem used f o r domes t i c , i n d u s t r i a l and i r r i g a t i o n purposes w i l l be d i s c u s s e d .

The r e s u l t i n g p l a n i s an i n t e g r a t e d w a t e r s u p p l y scheme, c o n n e c t i n g a l l t h e sou rces and

-92-

u s e r s . P r e v i o u s p l a n s d i v i d e d t h e a r e a i n t o s e p a r a t e wa te r s u p p l y schemes: m a i n l y t h e n o r t h e r n b r a n c h and t h e s o u t h e a s t e r n b ranch .

The inves tmen ts r e q u i r e d t o expand t h e e x i s t i n g scheme t o t h e "1990 l e v e l " a r e e s t i m a t e d a t $20,000,000.

2. Planning Stage 1: Project Initiation and Preliminary Planning

Question 1

The p l a n was t o f i t i n t o an o v e r a l l master p l a n f o r t h e r e g i o n , i n w h i c h t h e development o f s e t t l e m e n t s , p o p u l a t i o n , a g r i c u l t u r e and i n d u s t r y were l a i d o u t and i n t e g r a t e d . Such master p l a n does n o t e x i s t e x p l i c i t l y . S e c t o r i a l p l a n s fo r a g r i c u l t u r e , i n d u s t r y and m u n i c i p a l development c o u l d b e c o n s i d e r e d as a p l a n n i n g framework. The purpose o f t h e p r o j e c t was t o p r e p a r e a 20 year p l a n f o r t h e development and expans ion o f a w a t e r s u p p l y system wh ich e x i s t s i n p a r t s of t h e r e g i o n .

Question 2

The p l a n was p r e p a r e d b y TAHAL. w h i c h i s t h e n a t i o n a l wa te r p l a n n i n g a u t h o r i t y . Two W.R. s ys tems e n g i n e e r s , one programmer and one s t u d e n t worked i n t h e s t u d y .

Water s u p p l y i n I s r a e l i s t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f n a t i o n a l agenc ies , w h i c h r e p r e s e n t t h e i n t e r e s t s o f a l l consumers and t h e p u b l i c a t l a r g e . T h e r e f o r e , no need was seen f o r t h e p u b l i c as such t o p a r t i c i p a t e . However, r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f t h e consumers, e s p e c i a l l y f a r m e r s , v o i c e d t h e i r concerns and o p i n i o n s on v a r i o u s occas ions , and t h u s had an i n p u t t o t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . The i n i t i a t i o n o f p l a n n i n g was r e q u i r e d b y l o c a l consumer o r g a n i z a t i o n s .

Question 3

The s i n g l e o b j e c t i v e o f t h e p l a n was t o f u l l y s u p p l y t h e i n c r e a s i n g w a t e r demand a t t h e l e a s t o v e r a l l c o s t . D e c i s i o n c r i t e r i a

beyond the economical e f f i c i e n c y , such a s m a i n t a i n i n g e x i s t i n g a c t i v i t i e s and p r o m o t i o n o f economical a c t i v i t i e s , d a i l y l i f e and a m e n i t i e s i n t h e r e g i o n , were o n l y i m p l i c i t l y cons ide red .

Question 4

Three m a i n t ypes o f c o n s t r a i n t s were posed :

a. A g i v e n f o r e c a s t o f consumers' water demands

b . L i m i t e d p r o d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l o f l o c a l sources and l i m i t e d c a p a c i t y o f t h e n a t i o n a l wa te r supp ly system.

c . The 1 i m i t e d h y d r a u l i c c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e e x i s t i n g systems.

a. The p rob lem o f demand f o r e c a s t i n g was d i f f i c u l t f o r a number o f reasons :

- For i n d u s t r i a l uses t h e development p l a n and schedu le were u n c e r t a i n , and t h e water q u a l i t y r e q u i r e m e n t s n o t c l e a r l y enough d e f i n e d .

- For m u n i c i p a l uses t h e main p rob lem was t h e gap between t h e o p t i m i s t s and t h e p e s s i m i s t s c o n c e r n i n g t h e p o p u l a t i o n g rowth and pace o f p h y s i c a l development.

- For a g r i c u l t u r a l uses the f u t u r e c r o p p i n g p a t t e r n s a r e h a r d l y p r e d i c t a b l e and t h e r e f o r e t h e t o t a l demand as w e l l as t h e t i m e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e annual a l l o c a t i o n and peak demand a r e dub ious .

b. The p r o d u c t i o n c o n s t r a i n t s o f t he n a t i o n a l sys tem a r e t w o f o l d : t h e n a t i o n w i d e s c a r c i t y o f wa te r i n t h e system and t h e l i m i t e d c a p a c i t y o f a 42" D ia . p i p e l i n e (Zohar-Zel im) wh ich w i 1 1 be capab le o f s u p p l y i n g some 3000 c.m.h. t o t h e r e g i o n , as compared t o a peak demand o f 13000 c.m.h. . The 1 oca 1

-93-

groundwater sou rces a r e l i m i t e d by a s a f e y i e l d w h i c h i s e s t i m a t e d a t 35 MCM and t h e l i m i t e d c a p a c i t y o f 20 l o c a l w e l l s wh ich a r e c a p a b l e o f p r o d u c i n g a t o t a l o f 5000 c.m.h. The n a t i o n a l h y d r o l o g i c a l s e r v i c e was i n v o l v e d i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e s a f e y i e l d .

c . The e x i s t i n g p i p 1 i n e s and pumping s t a t i o n s l i m i t t h e con- v e y i n g c a p a c i t i e s i n a p a r t o f t h e l i n k s i n t h e system.

Question 5

The e x i s t i n g water s u p p l y systems have been des igned p a r t w i s e . The i n t r o d u c t i o n o f O . R . and systems . eng i neer i ng has been accompanied b y a l o n g d i s p u t e , an end t o w h i c h was p u t by t h e f i n a l r e p o r t o n l y . A long t h e work i t s e l f t h e r e was an argument o f t h e p r e f e r i n g o f a "snapshot model" wh ich d e a l s w i t h t h e h y d r a u l i c v a r i a b l e s i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l , or a "t i me expans i on" mode 1 wh i ch dea 1 s a l s o w i t h l o n g t e r m expans ion and economical p r e f e r e n c e s a l o n g t h e t i m e a x i s . F i n a l l y a " t i m e expans ion model" has been p r e f e r r e d and p o s t f ac tum examined more d e e p l y by t h e means o f a "snapshot model" a t two d e c i s i v e t i m e p o i n t s .

3. Planning Stage 2: Data Collection & Processing

c o n s i d e r a t i o n as a s l o w g rowth r a t e i n t h e pe r c a p i t a use , t y p i c a l f o r each town a c c o r d i n g t o i t s s i z e and p r e s e n t s t a n d a r d o f s e r v i c e s . Peak month r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e f u t u r e a r e somewhat h i g h e r t h a n t h e e x i s t i n g as a s a f e t y f a c t o r .

I n d u s t r i a l f u t u r e consumpt ion i s based on e x i s t i n g deve lopment scenar i os and t h e i r s p e c i f i c q u a l i t y , q u a n t i t y and t i m e d i s t r i b u t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s .

A g r i c u l t u r a l f u t u r e consumpt ion i s based on e x i s t i n g development schemes, wh ich i n c l u d e t h e g r o w t h o f sewage a v a i l a b i l i t y . E x i s t i n g a g r i c u l t u r e w i l l c a r r y on w i t h t h e e x i s t i n g annua l and peak month a l l o c a t i o n s . New v i l l a g e s w i l l b e based on a b a s i c f r e s h w a t e r a l l o c a t i o n (0.7MCM) and t h e r e s t w i l l be s u p p l i e d f r o m r e c l a i m e d sewage and s a l i n e wa te r sources .

The e s t i m a t e o f e x i s t i n g c a p a c i t y was based on t h e maximum r e c o r d e d f l o w s and n o t on r a t e d c a p a c i t i e s .

The h y d r o l o g i c c o n s t r a i n t s were a r e s u l t o f a r e g i o n a l mode l -a ided g e o h y d r o l o g i c 1 s tudy .

Question 7. Yes

Question 8. Yes

Question 9. No Question 6

Question 10. No Annual, peak and 1 ow

consumption d a t a have been c o l l e c t e d f o r t h e p a s t y e a r s f rom "Mekorot" company d a t a base. "Mekorot" i s t h e o n l y wa te r s u p p l i e r i n t h e r e g i o n . The d a t a a r e s p e c i f i e d f o r t h e t h r e e main consumer s e c t o r s i n each p r e s s u r e zone.

The f u t u r e p r o j e c t i o n t e c h n i q u e was d i f f e r e n t f o r each s e c t o r :

Domest ic f u t u r e consumption i s based on a p o p u l a t i o n g rowth e s t i m a t e f o r each town i n accordance w i t h r e g i o n a l and m u n i c i p a l master p l a n s . The l i v i n g s tandard g rowth f a c t o r has been taken i n t o

4. Planning Stage 3: Formulation and Screening of Project Alternatives

Question 1 1

Two systems e n g i n e e r s and one programmer worked on t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f a n u m e r i c a l o p t i m i z a t i o n s c r e e n i n g model, wh ich i n c l u d e d a l l a p p a r e n t l y p o s s i b l e r e s o u r c e s and l i n k s i n t h e ne twork . The MPSX L . P . S o l v e r a i d e d b y a M a t r i x Genera to r and r e p o r t w r i t e r was used on a I B M 370/158 computer. The t o t a l manpower r e q u i r e d i s e s t i m a t e d a t 1 2 man-months. W i t h t h e g a i n of

e x p e r i e n c e and t h e improvement o f I .o. a u x i l i a r y programs t h e m o d e l i n g phase has been c o n s i d e r a b l y s h o r t e n e d .

Question 12

The p r o j e c t was i n i t i a t e d and f i n a n c e d by t h e n a t i o n a l water p l a n n i n g and a l l o c a t i n g a u t h o r i t i e s , i . e . t h e water commissioner and "Mekorot" Company. Th i s p r o j e c t was p a r t o f a n a t i o n a l W.R. systems a n a l y s i s .

Question 13

The consumers and water a u t h o r i t i e s took p a r t i n t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n s tage . The f i n a l s o l u t i o n was n o t accepted by p a r t o f t h e consumers who f e l t n e g l e c t e d as most o f t h e development was f o r p a r t s o f t h e system i n f a r d i s t a n c e f rom them. However a comprehensive e x a m i n a t i o n shows t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f t h e p l a n t o t h e w e l l b e i n g and ameni ty o f t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n .

Question 15

The d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g process a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the p l a n n i n g was i n f o u r l e v e l s : (a) The p l a n n e r s 1 eve 1 , (b) A p r o f e s s i ona 1 t echn i ca 1 s t e e r i ng comm i t t e e checked e n g i n e e r i n g issues and examined t h e impacts on l o c a l and o t h e r W.R. systems, (c) A h i g h e r l e v e l s t e e r i n g commit tee o f t h e N a t i o n a l Water Commiss ioner 's O f f i c e wh ich d e a l t w i t h r e g i o n a l and o v e r a l l impacts on t h e W.R. and o t h e r systems: t h e p u b l i c d e l e g a t e s a l s o took p a r t i n t h a t commit tee, (d) A s t a t u t o r y p l a n n i n g commi t tee o f t h e Water Commissioner composed o f d e l e g a t e s f rom p u b l i c agenc ies and consumer s e c t o r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . The c o n f l i c t s a rose m a i n l y on t h e development and o p e r a t i o n o f t h e sources and convey ing systems. Most o f t h e r e s o l u t i o n s were ach ieved i n t h e t e c h n i c a l l e v e l and c o n f i r m e d a f t e r w a r d s on t h e h i g h e r l e v e l s .

Question 16.

Imposed c o n s t r a i n t s : Question 14

The main a l t e r n a t i v e s o f t h e p l a n a re : I . The d i v i s i o n o f s u p p l y between t h e v a r i o u s sources and i t s seasonal and l o n g te rm v a r i a t i o n s : I I . The f l o w i n l i n k s o f t h e ne twork ; I l l . The t r a d e o f f was between t h e i n t e n s i ve development o f t h e s o u t h e r n o r t h e n o r t h e r n b r a n c h o f t h e main system, and between t h e s t r e n g t h e n i n g of t h e c o n n e c t i o n t o t h e n a t i o n a l system o r t h e development o f l o c a l groundwater resources ; I V . The sequenc ing o f development ; V . The t r a d e - o f f between p i p e d i a m e t e r and booster-pump c a p a c i t i e s . A l a r g e number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s had t h e r e f o r e t o be examined. Indeed i n t h e p r o p a g a t i o n towards t h e o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n t h e L . P . model searches th rough a l a r g e number o f f e a s i b l e s o l u t i o n s w h i c h a r e a l l i n f e r i o r " a l t e r n a t i v e s " . Every i t e r a t i o n i n t h e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s i s a d e t a i l e d i n f e r i o r s o l u t i o n i n te rms o f economic e f f i c i e n c y . To j u s t i f y t h e chosen s o l u t i o n i t i s p o s s i b l e t o e x h i b i t some o f t hese i n f e r i o r a l t e r n a t i v e s .

a. The e x i s t i n g system had t o be taken i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n though n o t n e c e s s a r i l y be e x p l o i t e d i n f u l l capac i t y .

b. The sou rces ' p o t e n t i a l was based on p r i o r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s . S e n s i t i v i t y t e s t s have been made t o t h e annual s a f e y i e l d . These c o n s t r a i n t s were imposed by t h e G.W. h y d r o l o i c a l e x p e r t s o f b o t h Tahal and t h e Water Commissioner.

c . F o r e c a s t demands had t o be s a t i s f i e d . The scope o f f u t u r e development o f i r r i g a t i o n areas was d iscussed w i t h t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l p l a n n i n g agenc ies .

d. Q u a l i t y c o n s t r a i n t s c o u l d n o t be r e l a x e d . For a p a r t o f t h e consumers they seemed n o t reasonab le , m a i n l y some types o f i n d u s t r y w h i c h demanded t h e b e s t q u a l i t y a v a i l a b l e .

Question 17

a . A l ong- te rm deve lopment /opera t ion deve loprnent /opera t ion model has

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model has been developed i n Tahal Water P l a n n i n g for I s r a e 1 , f o r t h e a n a l y s i s o f r e g i o n a l W.R. systems. The model i s based on t h e L.P. t e c h n i q u e f o r t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f t h e development and o p e r a t i o n o f r e g i o n a l W.R. sys tems .

b . A h y d r a u l i c n e t work s o l v e r has been used i n p a r a l l e l f o r t h e r e f i n e m e n t o f t h e s o l u t i o n and h y d r a u l i c d imens ion ing . The model i s a s i m u l a t o r a n a l y z i n g a "snapshot p i c t u r e " f o r a g i v e n s e t o f d a t a . The t r a n s l a t i o n o f t h e o v e r a l l deve lopmen t /ope ra t i on scheme i n t o a d e t a i l e d p l a n f o r each o f t h e development s tages r e q u i r e s r e p e t i t i v e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s model f o r each s t a g e and f o r each season.

The n e t work s o l v e r i s based on t h e Newton-Raphson techn ique and has been deve loped and programmed i n "Mekor o t h" Water Supply and Development Company, I s r a e l .

Question 78

Both models have been t e s t e d on h i s t o r i c a l d a t a , and tu rned o u t t o ope ra te , however n o t r e a c h i n g t h e same o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n .

Question 79

The s e l e c t i o n of t h e f i n a l p l a n has been d i s c u s s e d by t h e t e c h n i c a l commit tee, as w e l l as b y t h e s t e e r i n g commi t tee i n which b o t h t h e a u t h o r i t i e s and t h e p u b l i c took p a r t . The f i n a l p l a n has a l s o been p resen ted i n consumers' con fe rences , wh ich f i n a l l y c o n f i r m e d i t .

Question 20

There was an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y p l a n n i n g e f f o r t , b u t t h e mix between W.R. p l a n n e r s and o t h e r k i n d s o f p l a n n e r s was n o t a p p r o p r i a t e . N a t i o n a l p l a n n e r s agencies s u p p l i e d d a t a , p a r t o f wh ich were " i n t h e making" or o f l o w r e l i a b i l i t y . The invo lvement o f t h e n a t i o n a l genera l p l a n n i n g a u t h o r i t i e s ( M i n i s t r y o f I n t e r i o r ) i n t h e l o c a l W.R. system p l a n n i n g i s n o t s t r o n g enough.

5. Planning Stage 4: Development of Final Project Specifications

Question 2 I

Based on t h e MPSX system fo r t h e s o l u t i o n o f L.P.models,a r a t h e r soph- i s t i c a t e d g e n e r a l model for t h e l ong - t e r m a n a l y s i s o f r e g i o n a l W.R. s y s t - has been deve loped i n t h e l a s t y e a r s . The model c a l l e d "Tekurna" (L .P. fo r W.R. systems) i s composed o f a m a t r i x g e n e r a t o r and a r e p o r t w r i t e r combined w i t h t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l MPSX system. I t se rves today as an o p e r a t i v e i n s t r u m e n t f o r t h e l o n g - t e r m p l a n n i n g o f r e g i o n a l W.R. systems. T h i s r e g i o n a l m u l t i - s e c t o r , m u l t i - s e a s o n a l , m u 1 t i - p e r i o d , mu1 t i - s t a t e , m u l t i - q u a l i t y model i s a n outcome o f t h r e e ma in e f o r t s i n t h e m i d s e v e n t i e s :

a. A n a t i o n a l m u l t i - r e g i o n a l , m u l t i - s e c t o r , m u l t i - s e a s o n a l s i n g l e p e r i o d L .P. model (Chayat E Vanunu - Taha l , 1975). wh ich combines t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f b o t h t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n p l a n and t h e o p e r a t i o n o f n a t i o n a l and r e g i o n a l W.R. and s u p p l y systems.

b . A n a t i o n a l m u l t i - s e c t o r , m u l t i - p e r i o d , m u l t i - s t a t e , D .P . model (Schwarz, 1980).

c . A r e g i o n a l m u l t i - o b j e c t i v e , mu1 t i - s e c t o r , m u l t i - s e a s o n a l , m u l t i - p e r i o d L.P. model (A l kan f Shamir - Techn ion , H a i f a , 19771, wh ich a n a l y z e s t h e l o n g t e r m development and o p e r a t i o n of a r e g i o n a l W.R. system. T h i s work d e a l t w i t h t h e E a s t e r n Negev as w e l l , b u t cove red a l a r g e r a r e a and a w i d e r scope o f n a t i o n a l g o a l s , such as employment and e n v i r o n m e n t a l impacts .

The g e n e r a l purpose "Tekuma" model (Schwarz, A l kan e t a1 . Taha l , 1981) was deve loped i n t h e l a t e s e v e n t i e s and has been used s i n c e t h e n for t h r e e r e g i o n s i n I s r a e l - E a s t e r n Negev, Western Negev and Arava V a l l e y . A t p r e s e n t , such a model i s used for p l a n n i n g t h e l o n g te rm n a t i o n a l W.R. development and o p e r a t i o n , as w e l l

-

as t h e p l a n n i n g o f t h e c e n t r a l p a r t o f I s r a e l .

Question 22

U n i t c o s t s a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e model. T o t a l c o s t s a r e p r e s e n t e d as p a r t o f t h e r e s u l t s .

Question 23

No s p e c i f i c r i s k a n a l y s i s was c a r r i e d o u t . However, t h e d e s i g n o f r e s e r v o i r s was based on s h o r t breakdown p e r i o d s o f t h e e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l y t o pumping s t a t i o n s .

Question 24

P r e f e r r e d s o l u t i o n s were found f o r d i f f e r e n t v a l u e s o f t h e unknown parameters . The most l i k e l y v a l u e was f i n a l l y s e l e c t e d . The t r a d e - o f f s c o u l d be examined by shadow p r i c e s o f t h e v a r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t s .

The o p t i m a l p l a n sugges ts t h e s t r e n g t h e n i n g o f t h e n o r t h e r n , p o o r l y deve loped arm and t h e c l o s i n g o f t h e r e g i o n a l ma in sys tem i n t o a loop . To c o n v i n c e t h e p r o f e s s i o n a l b o d i e s and above a l l t h e s o u t h e r n p a r t consumers, a number o f e c o n o m i c a l l y i n f e r i o r s o l u t i o n s were p resen ted .

The suggested development scheme f o r t h e " e i g h t i e s " c o n s i s t s o f i nves tmen ts and i t ems l i s t e d i n t h e t a b l e enc losed h e r e a f t e r .

Question 25

The p r o j e c t encourages t h e l o c a l s o l u t i o n o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l nu i sances by t h e en la rgement o f a reas i r r i g a t e d by sewage e f f l u e n t s . The e x t e n s i v e reuse o f sewage e f f l u e n t s f o r i r r i g a t i o n i n t h e Beersheva v a l l e y does n o t c r e a t e t i l l t h i s day any seve re damages o r d i s t u r b a n c e s t o t h e p u b l i c , and on t h e o t h e r hand adds t o t h e a r e a a l a r g e g reen o a s i s i n t h e d e s e r t . The development o f two n a t i o n a l i n d u s t r y c e n t e r s i n t h e E a s t e r n Negev enab les t h e t r a n s f e r o f a l l h e a v i l y p o l l u t i n g i n d u s t r i e s f r o m

t h e c e n t r a l p a r t o f t h e c o u n t r y t o t h e d e s e r t . The purpose o f t h i s t r a n s f e r , i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e p r e v e n t i o n of d i r e c t nu isances , i s t h e p r o t e c t i o n o f t h e main f r e s h groundwater sources . The s o u t h e r n p a r t o f t h e E a s t e r n Negev i s non a q u i f e r i c and s p a r s e l y i n h a b i t e d and t h u s s u i t a b l e f o r i n d u s t r i e s .

Question 26

The i n t r o d u c t i o n o f an O.R. d e v i c e f o r p l a n n i n g purposes was somewhat p r o b l e m a t i c . The " b l a c k box" was n o t a lways r i g h t l y a p p r e c i a t e d and accep ted by a l l peop le i n v o l v e d . P r i o r t o t h e r e g i o n a l a n a l y s i s t h e p l a n n i n g and o p e r a t i o n o f t h e r e g i o n was c o m p l e t e l y s e p a r a t e f o r t h e n o r t h e r n , groundwater f e d Beer Sheva r e g i o n , and f o r t h e s o u t h e r n Har Hanegev r e g i o n , f e d by t h e n a t i o n a l system.

The i n t e g r a t e d r e g i o n a l approach from t h e s t a r t , and t h e s o l u t i o n w h i c h c o n t r a d i c t e d t h e " s e p a r a t i s t i c " approach, were r a t h e r d i f f i c u l t t o b r i n g th rough b o t h p r o f e s s i n a l and s t e e r i n g commit tees. "Convent i ona 1 ' I des i gn and d i r e c t comparison o f a l t e r n a t i v e s were supplemented.

Question 27

The p rocess o f app rova l was by t h e two l e v e l s t e e r i n g commit tees and f i n a l l y by a s t a t u t o r y p l a n n i n g commit tee o f t h e wa te r commissioner. T h i s i s u s u a l l y a t e d i o u s p rocess wh ich r e q u i r e s n o t l e s s than one year a f t e r c o m p l e t i n g t h e p l a n . The r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g demands pressed t h e dec is ion-makers t o accept a p l a n and execu te w i t h i n a s h o r t e r schedu le . A f t e r h a v i n g succeeded i n c o n v i n c i n g t h a t t h e o p t i m a l p l a n i s a l s o advantageous i n t h e e f f i c i e n t phas ing o f t h e e x e c u t i o n , p i p e s have been o rde red i n t h e f a c t o r y s h o r t l y a f t e r .

Question 28

The p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t i e s have been c o o r d i n a t e d c o n t i n u o u s l y w i t h t h e n a t i o n a l f i n a n c i a l r e f e r e e i n

t h e s t e e r i n g commit tee. N a t i o n a l budgets have been promised f o r t h e v a r i o u s system development s t a g e s i n f u l l accordance w i t h t h e suggested p l a n .

Question 29

Pos t p l a n n i n g e v a l u a t i o n was concerned m a i n l y w i t h s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s t o unknown des i gn parameters such as : s a f e y i e l d o f t h e a q u i f e r ; c a p a c i t y o f w e l l s ; peak month demand; a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e n a t i o n a l system; e t c .

6. Planning Stage 5. Project Design

Question 30

The d e s i g n phase was c a r r i e d o u t s e p a r a t e l y by a n o t h e r e n g i n e e r i n g team. The d e t a i l e d d e s i g n o f p i p e l i n e l a y o u t s and pumping s t a t i o n s f o l l o w e d t h e genera l p l a n r e s u l t i n g from t h e O . R . ana l y s i s .

E A S I E H N NEGEV WAlER-SUPPLY SY', I I :M I I F V t ~ I I I P ' u t t I I '51 Ill ML. ( f J l l V . I91IlJ)

5 .CL

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4

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LONG TERM INTEGRATED PLANNING OF THE DRINKING WATER SUPPLY IN THE PROVINCE OF SOUTH HOLLAND (THE NETHERLANDS): IODZH

BY

A.H.M. Bresser, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Hygiene (RIVMI Project Leader of the Second Stage of the IODZH Study

1. Introduction

Water supp ly i n t h e P r o v i n c e o f South H o l l a n d (The Ne the r lands ) i s p r e s e n t l y d e a l t w i t h by 30 wa te r companies. The 1980 demand f o r p i p e d wa te r amounts t o 250 x 10 m /a . F u t u r e demand (2010) w i l l be between 270 and 420 x 10 m /a w i t h a b e s t e s t i m a t e o f a b o u t 340 x 10 m /a. The p r e s e n t w a t e r supp ly system c o n s i s t s o f 8 g roundwater pumping s t a t i o n s , 16 pumping s t a t i o n s o f bank f i 1 t r a t e d w a t e r , 3 f o r i n f i l t r a t e d s u r f a c e water by means o f ponds and 3 p u r i f i c a t i o n p l a n t s f o r r e s e r v o i r w a t e r . I t w i l l be necessary t o e n l a r g e p a r t s o f t h e system. Water companies have made reques ts f o r l i c e n s e s t o e n l a r g e , e .g . t h e i n f i l t r a t i o n c a p a c i t y i n t h e dune a rea a l o n g t h e c o a s t o f t h e N o r t h Sea. T h i s a r e a i s a n a t u r e r e s e r v e o f h i g h q u a l i t y and i s a l s o p a r t l y used f o r e x t e n s i v e r e c r e a t i o n . P o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r t h e s u p p l y a r e t h e use o f excess capac i t y i n r e s e r v o i r s and p u r i f i c a t i o n p l a n t s , e n l a r g i n g t h e use o f b a n k f i l t r a t e d wa te r o r a r a t h e r new t e c h n i q u e f o r i n f i l t r a t i o n by means o f i n j e c t i o n . S ince c o n s e r v a t i o n o f n a t u r e and r e c r e a t i o n i n t e r e s t s b o t h demand a decrease o f i n f i l t r a t i o n i n t h e dune a rea a l s o , a l t e r n a t i v e s w i t h a reduced i n f i l t r a t i o n c a p a c i t y have been s t u d i e d .

I i

The s t u d y has been c e n t e r e d around and gu ided by an e x t e n s i v e system s t u d y u s i n g b o t h s i m u l a t i o n and o p t i m i z a t i o n as techn iques ( 1 ) . S u p p o r t i n g s t u d i e s have been under taken i n t h e f i e l d s o f

g roundwater h y d r o l o g y ( e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e dune a rea and f o r bank f i 1 t r a t i on) , dose e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s between wa te r s u p p l y and n a t u r e , between r e c r e a t i o n and n a t u r e and between wa te r s u p p l y and r e c r e a t i o n , wa te r q u a l i t y , r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e s u p p l y system and c o s t s . Surveys have been made o f t h e p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n of n a t u r e , r e c r e a t i o n and wa te r s u p p l y .

A t t h e f i n a l s tage o f t h e s t u d y most o f t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s u b s t u d i e s have been i n c o r p o r a t e d w i t h i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n model.

I n t h e N e t h e r l a n d s p l a n n i n g of t h e wa te r s u p p l y c o n s i s t s o f t h r e e fo rms . The l o n g te rm p l a n n i n g (30 yea rs p e r i o d ) f o r t h e c o u n t r y as a who le i s done a t t h e c e n t r a l government. Medium t e r m p l a n n i n g (10 yea rs p e r i o d ) i s a combined t a s k of r e g i o n a l government ( p r o v i n c e s ) and t h e watercompan ies . S h o r t t e r m p l a n n i n g i s done by watercompan ies . The IOOZH-study i s a c o m b i n a t i o n o f l o n g te rm and medium t e r m p l a n n i n g on a r e g i o n a l s c a l e , so b o t h t h e c e n t r a l government and t h e p r o v i n c i a l government were i n v o l v e d and took p a r t i n t h e S t e e r i n g Comm i t tee .

The s t u d y has been c a r r i e d o u t i n two s tages . The f i r s t was ended i n August 1981 w i t h an I n t e r i m R e p o r t ( 2 ) . W i t h t h i s r e p o r t t h e s t u d y focussed on t h e c e n t r a l p a r t of t h e prob lem, c u t back b o t h i n t h e r e g i o n under s t u d y and a l t e r n a t i v e s c o n s i d e r e d and went i n t o more d e t a i l f o r t h e r e m a i n i n g p a r t o f t h e p rob lem. The f i n a l s t a g e ended i n

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August 1983 w i t h t h e F i n a l Repor t (3) p r e s e n t i n g an o v e r v i e w o f t h e s t u d y as a whole, d e s c r i b i n g b r i e f l y t h e methods used and f o c u s s i n g on c o n c l u s i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n s f o r t h e development o f t h e wa te r s u p p l y , r e c r e a t i o n i n t h e dune a rea and n a t u r e p r e s e r v a t i o n ( r e g e n e r a t i o n i n c l u d e d ) .

2. Planning Stage 1: Project initiation and Preliminary Planning

Question 1

The system i nvo 1 ved I S

i n f 1 uenced by two p l a n n i n g p rocedures : on wa te r s u p p l y and on p h y s i c a l p l a n n i n g . The c e n t r a l government s e t s u p a l o n g t e r m p l a n n i n g scheme ( "S t ruc tuurschema") w h i c h i s worked o u t i n 10-year p l a n s f o r t h e wa te r s u p p l y and i n s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t s such as pumping s t a t i o n s and p u r i f i c a t i o n p l a n t s . The l o n g te rm p l a n n i n g scheme i-s a l s o worked o u t i n p h y s i c a l p l a n s f o r r e g i o n s and d e s t i n a t i o n p l a n s f o r c e r t a i n a reas .

A long b o t h l i n e s p l a n n i n g i s a c o n t i n u o u s p rocess w i t h l i c e n s e s f o r a c t u a l l y b u i l d i n g p r o j e c t s . L i censes have t o f i t i n t h e l o n g te rm schemes w h i c h m o s t l y p r o v i d e f o r boundary c o n d i t i o n s . A long b o t h l i n e s a number o f p l a n s and r e q u e s t s f o r l i c e n s e s came up w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e same a r e a and system. I n o r d e r t o p r o v i d e f o r an i n t e g r a t e d s o l u t i o n o f t h e c o m p l i c a t e d p rob lem for w a t e r supp ly , r e c r e a t i o n and n a t u r e , t h e s t u d y has been i n i t i a t e d b y t h e fo rmer N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r Water Supp ly and a p p o i n t e d M i n i s t r i e s i n v o l v e d and P r o v i n c i a l Government o f H o l l a n d .

Question 2.

I n t h e s t u d y a d i v i s been made between gove

y t h e t h e

South

on had nmen t a 1

p l a n n i n g and t h e t e c h n i c a l p l a n n i n g p r o c e d u r e s . The f i r s t has been d e a l t w i t h by t h e S t e e r i n g Committee whose members a r e t o p - a d m i n i s t r a t o r s o f c e n t r a l and p r o v i n c i a l

government. The t e c h n i c a l p a r t o f t h e p l a n n i n g ( i . e . t h e s t u d y i t s e l f ) has been c a r r i e d o u t by 7 r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t e s under super - v i s i o n o f RID (now RIVM). The i n s t i - t u t e s a re : D e l f t H y d r a u l i c s Labor - a t o r y , N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r Water S u p p l y , N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r N a t u r e S t u d i e s , I n s t i t u t e fo r Env i ronmen ta l S t u d i e s and H e a l t h TNO, Research I n s t i t u t e fo r Water Supp ly KIWA, t h e P r ov i nc i a 1 P I ann i ng Department and t h e Cent re f o r Environment Stud i es o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Le iden. The p e o p l e c a r r y i n g o u t t h e s t u d y a lmost a l l had an academic degree. The d i s c i p l i n e s v a r i e d from mathemat i c i ans and eng i neers t o b i o l o g i s t s and e x p e r t s on r e c r e a t i ona 1 b e h a v i o u r . The o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e s t u d y have been f o r m u l a t e d i n t h e f i r s t s tage o f t h e s t u d y and were t a k e n f rom p u b l i c l y accepted p l a n n i n g p rocedures . The I n t e r i m R e p o r t wh ich c o n t a i n s t h e o b j e c t i v e s and t h e f i r s t s c r e e n i n g o f a l t e r n a t i v e s appeared i n 1981 and was d i s c u s s e d i n p u b l i c , as t h e F i n a l R e p o r t , i ssued i n Summer 1984.

Phys i ca 1

Question 3

The most i m p o r t a n t c r i t e r i o n f o r i n i t i a t i n g the s t u d y was t h a t u n t i l t h a t t i m e a l l a t t e m p t s t o reach agreement on t h e use o f t h e dune area had f a l e d , w h i l e w i t h i n a l i m i t e d number o f yea rs a c t u a l d e c i s i o n s had o b e t a k e n on t h i s s u b j e c t .

Question 4

C o n s t r a i n t s posed on the s t u d y were: l i m i t e d t o t h e p r o v i n c e o f South H o l l a n d , no d i r e c t invo lvement o f t h e i n t e r e s t groups ( i . e . watercompanies, e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t s a c t i o n g r o u p s ) , use o n l y e x i s t i n g d a t a . These c o n s t r a i n t s were posed by t h e g o v e r n i n g b o d i e s . The f i r s t c o n s t r a i n t ( a r e a l ) d i d n o t cause s e r i o u s prob lems a l t h o u g h s l i g h t d e v i a t i o n s f rom i t were made wh ich were a c c e p t a b l e . The second c o n s t r a i n t (no watercompanies o r

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i n t e r e s t groups i nvolved) caused many more p rob lems . I t was d i s c u s s e d e x t e n s i v e l y and a compromi se between t h e p r o j e c t d i r e c t o r s and t h e p r o j e c t team was found : techn i c a 1 d a t a and d i s c u s s i o n s on t e c h n i c a l m a t t e r s w i t h t h e i n t e r e s t p a r t i e s were a l l o w e d , thus p r o v i d i n g a b e t t e r c o n n e c t i o n between t h e s t u d y and r e a l i t y . S t i l l , even a f t e r f i n i s h i n g t h e s t u d y , t h i s c o n s t r a i n t poses s e r i o u s problems because imp lemen ta t i on o f proposed s o l u t i o n s needs coopor a t i on between a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and wa te r companies. The t h i r d c o n s t r a i n t a l s o caused seve re problems because d a t a on t h e p r e s e n t s t a t e o f n a t u r e i n t h e dune area was i n s u f f i c i e n t t o make p r e d i c t i o n s on p o s s i b l e e f f e c t s due t o a l t e r a t i o n s i n t h e i n f i l t r a t i o n system. T h i s has been so l ved a t t h e c o s t o f abou t a year e x t r a t i m e and s e v e r a l man years e x t r a l a b o u r .

Question 5

I n t h e system a n a l y s i s p a r t o f t h e s t u d y a t f i r s t t h e r e was an e x t e n s i v e d i s c u s s i o n on t h e methods t o be used: o p t i m i z a t i o n o r s i m u l a t i o n . Bo th methods were adopted w i t h emphasis on t h e s i m u l a t i o n . T h i s d e c i s i o n was reached on a t e c h n i c a l l e v e l and was approved by t h e S t e e r i n g Committee a f t e r a b r i e f i n g b y t h e s tudy team. On methods t o be used i n s u b s t u d i e s t h e s t u d y team dec ided p r i m a r i l y , and made a p r o p o s i t i o n f o r t h e S t e e r i n g Committee f o r app rova l o f f i n a n c i a l aspec ts and manpower. On some occas ions t h e S t e e r i n g Commi t t e e changed p r o p o s a l s , i n e x t e n t o r c o n t e n t , m o s t l y because o f f i n a n c i a l reasons .

3. Planning Stage 2: Data Collection

Question 6

The s u b s t u d i e s made use o f t h e i r own databases and p r o v i d e d d a t a f o r t h e system s tudy and f o r o t h e r s u b s t u d i e s . The h y d r o l o g i c a l s t u d y used o b s e r v a t i o n s o f l e v e l s o f p h r e a t i c groundwater and o f heads i n semi c o n f i n e d groundwater (annual

averages have been u s e d ) . The v a l i d a t i o n o f t h e models was done w i t h d a t a o f t h r e e y e a r s . H y d r o g e o l o g i c a l d a t a were d e r i v e d from pumping t e s t s and v a r i o u s o t h e r sou rces . Changes i n h y d r o l o g y , c a l c u l a t e d w i t h t h e models as annua l averages i n a s t e a d y s t a t e f o r a number o f s i t u a t i o n s , a r e i n p u t s fo r e f f e c t c a l c u l a t i o n . T r a v e l t i m e s of wa te r t o d r a i n s and w e l l s were a l s o c a l c u l a t e d p r o v i d i n g d a t a for p r o t e c t i o n zones and f o r m i n g i n p u t f o r p h y s i c a l p l a n n i n g and fo r t h e r e c r e a t i o n s t u d y . I n p u t d a t a f o r t h e n a t u r e s t u d i e s a r e s u r v e y s o f p l a n t s and v e g e t a t i o n over t h e p r o v i n c e as a who le ( t h i s had been c a r r i ed o u t ea r 1 i e r by t h e P r o v i n c i a l Phys i ca 1 P1 ann i ng Department excep t f o r t h e dune a rea : t h a t su rvey was p a r t o f t h e s t u d y ) . A l s o numbers o f b r e e d i n g p a i r s o f b i r d s , g a t h e r e d c o n t i n u o u s l y b y b i r d w a t c h i n g groups, were used. For r e c r e a t i o n , i n p u t d a t a were c o u n t s o f v i s i t o r s i n c e r t a i n a r e a s a t s e v e r a l t imes , and i n t e r v i e w s . Water q u a l i t y o f t h e sou rces o f groundwater was measured once i n t h e s t u d y as a check on a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n (annua 1 sampl i ng) . Water q u a l i t y o f r i v e r s i s measured c o n t i n u o u s l y a t s e v e r a l p o i n t s a l o n g t h e r i v e r s Rh ine and Meuse f o r a 1.ong p e r i o d . The d a t a o f t h e p e r i o d 1975-1980 ( i n c l .) have been used. For r e l i a b i l i t y , d a t a on f a i l u r e s a r e s c a r c e so m o s t l y e s t i m a t e s have been made. The p r e d i c t i o n on f u t u r e demands were based upon demograph ica l d a t a f r o m t h e C e n t r a l Bureau o f t h e Census and t h e P r o v i n c i a l Phys i ca 1 P 1 ann i ng Department. Data on i n d u s t r i a l development were o b t a i n e d from t h e Nat i ona 1 Phys i c a 1 P l a n n i n g Department. Data on s p e c i f i c w a t e r consumpt ion were o b t a i n e d f r o m an e a r l i e r s t u d y o f t h e N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e for Water Supp ly . A l l wa te r consumpt ion d a t a a r e y e a r l y averages . Water consumpt ion i n t h e West land h o r t i c u l t u r e a r e a has been c a l c u l a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f d a t a f rom t h e h o r t i c u l t u r e r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t e and v a r y w i t h i n a y e a r . The sys tem s t u d y uses f i g u r e s o f t h e p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n ( l a y - o u t , c a p a c i t i e s , c o s t f i g u r e s , e t c . ) o f t h e s u p p l y sys tem as o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e wa te r companies.

Question 7

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Question 10

Not o n l y e x i s t i n g d a t a have been used. Surveys o f n a t u r e v a l u e have been made ( c o u n t i n g p l a n t s and v e g e t a t i o n t y p e s over 600 h e c t a r e s o f dune a r e a ) . R e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t y was coun ted . Analyses o f wa te r samples from groundwater pumping s t a t i o n s were made. D o s e - e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s have been e s t a b l i s h e d f rom l i t e r a t u r e and f r o m o t h e r r e s e a r c h . I n o t h e r f i e l d s t h e i n v e n t o r y o f a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g d a t a t o o k much e f f o r t . F o r e c a s t s f o r t h e demand and f o r wa te r q u a l i t y i n groundwater and r i v e r s were i n p u t s i n t h e models and had t o b e genera ted w i t h t h e a i d o f h i s t o r i c a l d a t a .

Question 8

Formal OR techn iques were n o t used t o d e t e r m i ne t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n scheme. P r a c t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s dom i na t e d t h i s a s p e c t , a i d e d b y some a n a l y s i s . The w a t e r r e s o u r c e s management models used a r e d e t e r m i n i s t i c . The a v a i l a b l e and o b t a i n a b l e d a t a d i d seldom a l l o w f o r a s t a t i s t i c a l approach. Data c o l l e c t i o n on t h e p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n f o r n a t u r e posed a p rob lem. Severa l p o s s i b l e ways o f c a l c u l a t i n g e f f e c t s o f v e g e t a t i o n were a v a i l a b l e , a l l r e q u i r i n g d i f f e r e n t d a t a s e t s . S i n c e t h e s u r v e y o f t h e dune a rea had t o be made i n an e a r l y s t a g e o f t h e s t u d y t h e method had t o be d e c i d e d upon. A smal 1 computer programme ( s i m u l a t i o n ) was used t o compare t h e

d i f f e r e n t methods and t o d e c i d e on t h e way i n w h i c h t h e survey had t o b e c a r r i e d out .

Question 9

No s p e c i f i c programme has been s e t up t o assess t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e d a t a bases used. But t h e d a t a o n t h e su rvey o f t h e n a t u r e v a l u e s i n t h e dunes had t o f i t i n a d a t a base o f n a t u r e v a l u e s i n t h e r e s t o f t h e p r o v i n c e w h i c h a l r e a d y e x i s t e d . The programmes f o r p r o c e s s i n g these d a t a had t o b e a l t e r e d f o r t h i s pu rpose .

A n a l y s i s o f h i s t o r i c a l d a t a on wa te r q u a l i t y o f t h e r i v e r s has been done w i t h m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s f o r a l a r g e number o f parameters us i ng a s t a n d a r d programme ( 4 ) . E x p e r t s ' v iews were used on s e v e r a l occas ions as d a t a , sometimes as d o s e - e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s , sometimes as w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r s i n combin ing c r i t e r i a . These v iews were s o l i c i t e d by i n t e r v i e w s , sometimes mak ing use o f t h e Saaty-De Graan method ( 5 ) .

4. Planning Stage 3: Formulation and Screening of Project Alternatives

I n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r case t h e s t u d y compared a l t e r n a t i v e s i n two s tages : s c r e e n i n g based on rough comparison o f a l t e r n a t i v e s , l e a v i n g o u t obv ious bad ones, and then f u r t h e r d e t a i l i n g o f r e m a i n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s and c a r e f u l comparison and j u d g i n g o f t hese a g a i n s t o b j e c t i v e s . The q u e s t i o n s i n t h i s c h a p t e r w i l l be answered f o r t h e f i r s t s tage . The development o f methods t o b e used i n b o t h s tages o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess was p a r t o f t h i s f i r s t s t a g e o f t h e s t u d y and resources used canno t s i m p l y be d i v i d e d i n t o resources f o r t h e p l a n n i n g and f o r development o f methods. So t h e sum w i l l be p resen ted .

Question 1 1

I t took about two years , 15 manyears and 1.5 m i l l i o n g u i l d e r s (about $600,000) t o comple te t h e f i r s t s tage o f t h e s t u d y . By t h a t t i m e much had a l r e a d y been p repared

Severa 1 f o r t he f i n a l s t a g e . computers had been used. The s i m u l a t i o n model v e r s i o n 1 was r u n a t , t h e computer o f D e l f t H y d r a u l i c L a b o r a t o r y ( i n Dynamo I I I ) . The second v e r s i o n , a l s o i n Dynamo I l l , was on t h e computer o f I B M Zoetermeer. The t h i r d v e r s i o n i n F o r t r a n was r u n on t h e computer o f ENR i n P e t t e n . Bo th DHL and RID had a d i r e c t l i n e t o t h i s machine.

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The o p t i m i z a t i o n model a l s o r a n on t h e ENR computer w i t h t h e PDP-minicomputer o f RID as t e r m i n a l . The l a r g e h y d r o l o g i c a l models r a n i n P e t t e n , w h i l e t h e s m a l l e r ones r a n on t h e PDP a t RID. The d a t a on n a t u r e were processed on t h e computer o f t h e P r o v i n c i a l P l a n n i n g Department. The t o t a l e f f o r t had been spread over w o r k i n g teams whose 1 eader s p a r t i c i pa ted i n a c o o r d i n a t i o n team under t h e p r o j e c t 1 eader .

Question 12

I n s t i t u t i o n a l suppor t was p r o v i d e d by t h e S t e e r i n g Committee and t h e A d v i s o r y Committee and by a Task Fo rce on Legal and I n s t i t u t i . o n a l Aspec ts . R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from t h e m i n i s t r i e s i n v o l v e d and f rom t h e p r o v i n c e t o o k p a r t i n t h e s e commi t tees . A l l a l o n g t h e s tudy d e c i s i o n s had t o be made o n aspec ts o f f i n a n c e s , s c r e e n i n g , sometimes methods t o be used, t i m e e t c . Most d e c i s i o n s c o u l d be t a k e n b y t h e p r o j e c t l eader ( w i t h i n t h e budget and t h e p r o j e c t programme). Ma jor d e c i s i o n s were taken by t h e S t e e r i n g Committee w i t h t h e a d v i c e o f t h e p r o j e c t l eader and t h e A d v i s o r y Committee. Some o f t h e i n t e r m e d i a t e r e s u l t s o f t h e s t u d y found t h e i r way i n t o p r o v i n c i a l p o l i c i e s on water supp ly a f t e r t h e I n t e r i m Repor t had been p resen ted .

Question 73

There was no d i r e c t p u b l i c i nvo l vemen t i n t h e s tudy a f t e r t h e s t a r t and b e f o r e t h e I n t e r i m r e p o r t had been p resen ted . The l n t e r i m r e p o r t was d i s t r i b u t e d w i d e l y and d i s c u s s e d i n a p u b l i c mee t ing .

Question 74

I n p r i n c i p l e a l l p r o j e c t s f o r d r i n k i n g w a t e r supp ly wh ich were t e c h n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e have been s t u d i e d t o some e x t e n t . Not a l l comb ina t i ons o f p r o j e c t s have been s t u d i e d . I n an e a r l y s tage o f t h e

c o n n e c t i o n s between supp ly p o i n t s and demand nodes were proposed and

s t u d y a 1 i m i t e d number o f

d i scussed w i t h t h e S t e e r i n g Committee. The l n t e r i m r e p o r t gave a s c r e e n i n g o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s . The r e m a i n i n g ones were s t u d i e d i n much more d e t a i l i n t h e second s t a g e o f t h e s t u d y .

Question 75

D e c i s i o n makers i n t h i s case a r e t h e P r o v i n c i a l Government and t h e two M i n i s t r i e s o f P h y s i c a l P l a n n i n g , Hous ing and Env i ronmen ta l Management and o f A g r i c u l t u r e and F i s h e r y ( r e c r e a t i o n and n a t u r e p r e s e r v a t i o n i nc luded) . C i v i 1 s e r v a n t s o f t h e s e b o d i e s f o r m t h e S t e e r i n g Committee. P r o p o s a l s f o r S c r e e n i n g and a l t e r n a t i v e s were made b y t h e s t u d y team and d i s c u s s e d i n t h e S t e e r i n g Committee. The s u g g e s t i o n s f o r s c r e e n i n g were s u p p o r t e d b y t r a d e - o f f s between c r i t e r i a such as c o s t s , d r i n k i n g wa te r q u a l i t y and damage t o n a t u r e and by a l t e r n a t i v e c o m b i n a t i o n s o f p r o j e c t s w i t h t h e e f f e c t s o f a l l c r i t e r i a.

Question 76

The c o n s t r a d i s c u s s e d a t ques t h e y c o u l d be r e w i t h t h e S t e e r i n g

Question 77

n t s were a l r e a d y i o n 4 . Sometimes axed. i n d i s c u s s i o n Committee.

The model f o r s i m u l a t i o n o f t h e development o f t h e w a t e r s u p p l y system (DRISIM) was deve loped by DHL and R I D . I t was f i r s t w r i t t e n i n DYNAMO, a t r y as made i n A C S L and i t was f i n a l l y r e w r i t t e n i n FORTRAN. The o p t i m i z a t i o n model was w r i t t e n around t h e APEX s t a n d a r d LP- r o u t i n e a v a i l a b l e a t ENR i n P e t t e r . The d e c i s i o n models o f Saaty -de Graan had been deve loped e a r l i e r a t RID. The h y d r o l o g i c a l s t u d i e s made use o f s t a n d a r d models a v a i l a b l e and m o s t l y deve loped b y R I D (TR I SE, MESH) . P r o c e s s i n g o f n a t u r e v a l u e s has been done by t h e P r o v i n c i a l P l a n n i n g Department (PPD) w i t h i t s own e x i s t i n g programs. For t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f e f f e c t s on v e g e t a t i o n and b i r d s t h e DHL t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e PPD and R I D deve loped an a l g o r i t h m on t h e computer of PPD.

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The m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n o f wa te r q u a l i t y was pe r fo rmed w i t h t h e COMPAN- program, deve loped e a r l i e r a t R I D .

Question 18

The s i m u l a t i o n and o p t i m i z a t i o n model have been t e s t e d w i t h t h e h i s t o r i c a l development o f t h e w a t e r supp ly system. C a l c u l a t i o n o f e f f e c t s c o u l d seldom be t e s t e d because a l l a v a i l a b l e d a t a on e f f e c t s o f h i s t o r i c a l developments o f t h e system were used t o d e t e r m i n e d o s e - e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s . The e f f e c t c a l c u l a t i o n s t h e r e f o r e d i d n o t have an a b s o l u t e meaning b u t have o n l y been used i n a compara t i ve way i n t h e f i r s t phase o f t h e s t u d y . The h y d r o l o g i c a l models had been t e s t e d a l r e a d y ( s tandard p rog rams) . The models were c a l i b r a t e d w i t h d a t a on heads and groundwater t a b l e s and w i t h h i s t o r i c a l s i t u a t i o n s .

Question 19

I n t h i s s t a g e o f t h e s t u d y t h e " t e c h n i c a l " e x p e r t s (= s t u d y team) made v e r y s p e c i f i c p r o p o s a l s f o r s c r e e n i n g of a l t e r n a t i v e s . The S t e e r i n g Committee d i s c u s s e d t h e p r o p o s a l s , a d j u s t e d them when necessary ( s l i g h t 1 y) and p r e s e n t e d t h e l n t e r i m r e p o r t t o t h e m i n i s t e r s i nvo 1 ved and t h e Prov i nc i a 1 Government. Sever a 1 d i f f e r e n t a d v i s o r y commi t tees on p h y s i c a l p l a n n i n g and env i ronmen t , t h e w a t e r companies, a c t i o n groups and o t h e r i n t e r e s t e d p e o p l e were asked t o comment on t h e r e p o r t . A p u b l i c p r e s e n t a t i o n has been h e l d . Governmental dec i s ion -makers adop ted t h i s i n t e r m e d i a t e r e s u l t and ag reed on t h e second s t a g e o f t h e s t u d y .

Question 20

Yes, i t c e r t a i n l y has been an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y p l a n n i n g e f f o r t , and t h e m i x was r a t h e r a p p r o p r i a t e . The s t u d y team suggested t h e i n c o r p o r a t i o n of an i n s t i t u t i o n a l subs tudy , b u t t h e S t e e r i n g Committee d i d n o t a l l o w for t h i s . The most d i s a p p o i n t i n g t h i n g has been t h a t no watercompanies were a l l o w e d t o t a k e a c t u a l p a r t i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s .

The c o m b i n a t i o n o f b i o l o g i s t s and t e c h n i c i a n s p roved t o be v e r y w o r t h w h i l e f o r b o t h . Unders tand ing o f each o t h e r grew w i t h t h e s t u d y espec i a 1 1 y by t h e i n t e n s i v e d i s c u s s i o n s i n t h e s t u d y team. T h i s r e s u l t e d i n s o l u t i o n s f o r t h e development o f t h e wa te r s u p p l y system, r e c r e a t i o n and n a t u r e p r e s e r v a t i o n t h a t can be named harmonious, d e s p i t e g r e a t c o n f l i c t s abou t t h e same m a t t e r i n t h e p a s t . So a j o i n t p l a n n i n g p rocedure seems t o be much b e t t e r than o n l y c a l c u l a t i n g e f f e c t s o f p l a n s a f t e r t h e des ign o f a l i m i t e d number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s (which i s t h e case i n env i ronmen ta l impact assessment) .

5. Planning Stage 4: Development of Final Project Specifications

I n t h i s chap te r o n l y t h e f i n a l s t a g e o f t h e s t u d y w i l l be d i scussed , i . e . f u r t h e r d e t a i l i n g t h e r e m a i n i n g a1 t e r n a t i v e s and comparing them i n terms o f t h e o b j e c t i v e s , a n a l y s i s o f t h e f i e l d o f p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n s and d r a w i n g c o n c l u s i o n s f rom t h e a n a l y s i s .

Question 27

OR methods have been used as i n p l a n n i n g s t a g e 3 (see chap te r 4, q u e s t i ons 1 1 and 1 7 ) . The o p t i m i z a t i o n model was n o t used t o d e f i n e an o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n b u t as a s c r e e n i n g p rocedure t o d e f i n e obv ious i n f e r i o r s o l u t i o n s . The s i m u l a t i o n model was used t o f i n d harmonious s o l u t i o n s . Most o f t h e m o d e l l i n g has been done by DHL and R I D . O f cou rse p a r t s o f t h e model were d e r i v e d f rom l i t e r a t u r e , b u t t h e l i t e r a t u r e i t s e l f was n o t v e r y u s e f u l . The system s t u d y team had a d v i s o r s a t i t s d i s p o s a l ( P r o f . U. Shamir and D r . W . W i l s ) , I n d i s c u s s i o n s and e x c e r c i s e s d i f f e r e n t methods have been e x p l o r e d . The ma in p a r t o f t h e system s t u d y was t h e s i m u l a t i o n model. T h i s has been r e w r i t t e n t h r e e t imes i n d i f f e r e n t computer languages. Dynamo I l l was t h e f i r s t one, b u t t h e imp lemen ta t i on o f F o r t r a n s u b r o u t i n e s i n Dynamo was, a t t h a t moment and on t h e computer t h a t was

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was used, n o t p o s s i b l e . ACSL was t h e second one, bu t the t r a i n i n g o f t h e p e o p l e w i t h t h i s language was i n s u f f i c i e n t , so f i n a l l y t h e model was w r i t t e n c o m p l e t e l y i n F o r t a n . T h i s model was more o r l e s s o p t i m i z e d , r e d u c i n g the c o s t s for a r u n by a f a c t o r of about 20. The f i n a l v e r s i o n o f D R l S l M i s a v e r y u s e f u l one and easy t o r u n . I t has been used, w i t h a l t e r a t i o n s f o r s p e c i f i c uses, s i n c e then i n s e v e r a l o t h e r s t u d i e s a t DHL. So t h e model can e a s i l y be made t o f i t t h e prob lem, and excep t f r o m t h e necessary schemat i z a t i o n o f t h e supp ly system t h e prob lem does n o t have t o be a d j u s t e d t o f i t t h e model. The s i m u l a t i o n model grew w i t h t h e s t u d y . I t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o assess t h e t i m e used t o c o n s t r u c t t h e model. C o n s t r u c t i n g , r e c o n s t r u c t i n g and r u n n i n g t h e model were p a r t o f t h e c e n t r a l r o l e o f t h e system s t u d y i n t h e p r o j e c t as a whole, g u i d i n g subs tud ies and g r a d u a l l y r e a c h i n g c o n c l u s i o n s .

Question 22

No s p e c i f i c cos t benef i t a n a l y s i s has been made. Costs were, t o g e t h e r w i t h a number o f o t h e r c r i t e r i a , an o b j e c t i v e t o be m i n i m i z e d i n b o t h t h e models and i n t h e s t u d y as a whole .

The c o s t s o f t h e s tudy i t s e l f a r e r a t h e r h i g h . But a t t h e s t a r t o f t h e s t u d y a p o l i t i c a l impasse had been reached wh ich had t o be b r o k e n . I t i s n o t b e be expec ted t h a t a s t u d y o f t h i s magn i tude w i l l be c a r r i e d o u t a g a i n . P a r t s o f t h e s t u d y m i g h t have been done a t l e s s c o s t s , w i t h t h e same impact on t h e c o n c l u s i o n s .

Question 23

R i s k a n a l y s i s o f t h e system under s t u d y formed p a r t o f t h e

s i m u l a t i o n mode l . -Re1 i a b i 1 i t y o f t h e supp y sys tem w a s one o f t h e c r i t e r i a t h e dec i s ion -makers d e c i d e d upon, and sough t t o o b t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n b o u t . A l though d a t a on f a i l u r e s i n s u p p l y systems a r e s c a r c e and a s t a t i s t i c a l approach shows g r e a t u n c e r t a i n t i e s , t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h i s i t e m was r a t h e r s u c c e s s f u l . Weak s p o t s i n t h e system c o u l d b e i d e n t i f i e d . A

between c o s t s and T r a d e - o f f r e l i a b i l i t y i s p o s s i b l e t o a c e r t a i n e x t e n t . D i s c u s s i o n s on t h i s i t e m a r e c o n t i n u i n g .

Questions 24/25

The s i m u l a t i o n model g e n e r a t e s a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r t h e development o f t h e w a t e r s u p p l y system and c a l c u l a t e s t h e e f f e c t s on a number o f o b j e c t i v e s ( n a t u r e i n c l u d e d ) . An a l t e r n a t i v e o r i g i n a t e s from a s t r a t e g y , a s c e n a r i o and a s e t o f t e c h n i c a l assumpt ions . A s t r a t e g y i n t h i s case i s a s e t o f maximum c a p a c i t i e s f o r a l l p r o j e c t s and p i p e 1 ines i n t h e system and a p r e s c r i p t o f t h e o r d e r i n w h i c h p r o j e c t s s u p p l y wa te r t o each o f t h e demand nodes. A s c e n a r i o i s a s e t o f assumpt ions on developments w h i c h a r e o u t s i d e t h e system. (such as t h e economic development or t h e energy p r i c e ) . A l a r g e number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s has been genera ted , each w i t h a l l t h e e f f e c t s c a l c u l a t e d t o o . The a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e p o i n t s i n a cont inuum. The ma in v a r i a b l e s i n t h e s t r a t e g i e s were t h e amount o f s u r f a c e i n f i l t r a t i o n i n t h e dunes and t h e amount o f deep i n f i l t r a t i o n . When u s i n g t h e s e two v a r i a b l e s as axes t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s can be p u t i n a f i g u r e where l i n e s o f equa l e f f e c t s can be drawn f o r each o f t h e c r i t e r i a (see Annex I ) . E l e v e n o b j e c t i v e s i n a l l were c o n s i d e r e d :

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(1) V e g e t a t i o n

(2) Landscape

(3) B i r d s

(4) Ecosystem

(5) Water q u a l i t y

(6) Pub1 i c h e a l t h

: changes i n a r e a covered by v e g e t a t i o n t ypes : w e i g h t e d

: changes i n t h e v a l u e o f landscape (a rea t imes w e i g h t )

: changes i n numbers o f b r e e d i n g p a i r s t i m e s t h e v a l u e o f t ypes o f b i r d s

: d i s t u r b a n c e s a t v a r i o u s l e v e l s w i t h i n ecosystems (a rea t imes t h e i n tens i t y ) t i m e s t h e impor tance o f a l e v e l w i t h i n t h e system t i m e s t h e v a l u e o f t h e eco s y s t em

: t h e we igh ted average o f 12 parameters ( w i t h s t a n d a r d cons ide red )

: t h e judgement o f e x p e r t s o f s o u r c e - p u r i f i c a t i o n systems

( 7 ) S e c u r i t y o f p r o d u c t i o n : t h e judgement o f e x p e r t s of s o u r c e - p u r i f i c a t i o n systems

(8) R e l i a b i l i t y o f s u p p l y : t h e c a l c u l a t e d n o n - d e l i v e r a n c e as p r o m i l l a g e o f t h e supp ly

(9) P r o d u c t i o n c o s t s : i n c e n t s pe r m 3 d e l i v e r e d a t t h e

I p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n (2010)

(10) P resen t v a l u e o f t o t a l : t o t a l c o s t s p 1 ann

(11) P resen t v a l u e o f : . t o t a l i nves tments p l a n n

V e g e t a t i o n , c o s t s and wa te r q u a l i t y were c o n s i d e r e d t h e " l e a d i n g " o b j e c t i v e s . T h i s does n o t mean t h a t t h e o t h e r o b j e c t i v e s a r e u n i m p o r t a n t , b u t r a t h e r t h a t t h e s e t h r e e a r e , under t h e p r e s e n t c i r c u m s t a n c e s , t h e ones wh ich most d e t e r m i n e t h e b e s t compromise s o l u t i o n .

For each o f t h e c r i t e r i a f i v e c l a s s e s have been i d e n t i f i e d v a r y i n g from A (= i n c o n t r a d i c t i o n w i t h t h e g o a l s f o r t h e o b j e c t i v e ) t o E (= c o m p l e t e l y i n l i n e w i t h t h e g o a l s ) .

t h e system i n t h e od

t h e system i n t h e od

The c l a s s e s have been d e r i v e d f rom p o l i c y documents and i n d i s c u s s i o n w i t h t h e S t e e r i n g Commi t t e e . Combinat ion o f t h e f i g u r e s f o r each c r i t e r i o n showed an a rea w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e s where no o b j e c t i v e was c o n t r a d i c t e d (except landscape) . These s o l u t i ons were c a l l e d reasonab ly good s o l u t i o n s . W i t h i n t h i s a rea a more l i m i t e d number of so c a l l e d harmoneous s o l u t i o n s c o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d where t h e sco res on t h e major o b j e c t i v e s ( v e g e t a t i o n , c o s t s , wa te r q u a l i t y ) were p o s i t i v e (annex I I ) . Except f rom

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i n f i l t r a t i o n , wa te r can be s u p p l i e d f rom bank f i l t r a t i o n or f r o m r e s e r v o i r s . I n t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s o f annex I and I I t h e o rde r i n w h i c h these p r o j e c t s a r e used was s tandard .

D i f f e r e n t s t r a t e g i e s have been i n v e s t i g a t e d . Annex I l l shows some r e s u l t s i n o b j e c t i v e space, t h e d e c i d i n g o b j e c t i v e s be ing c o s t s and v e g e t a t i o n as can b e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e annexes I and ( I . F o r m u l a t i o n o f c o n c l u s i o n s f r o m t h i s a n a l y s i s was done i n d i s c u s s i o n w i t h t h e S t e e r i n g Committee. The g r a p h i c a l p r e s e n t a t i o n ( t o g e t h e r w i t h t a b l e s ) p roved t o be v e r y u s e f u l i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n s . The o p t i m i z a t i o n model was n o t used i n t h i s phase d e s p i t e t h e b u i I t - i n p o s s i b i 1 i t y o f mu1 t i - o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i on because t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s i t s e l f was i m p o r t a n t and no w e i g h t s c o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d be fo rehand . Bes ides t h e r e s u l t s o f t h i s model were t o o aggrega te . The d i r e c t d i s c u s s i o n s between a n a l y s t s and S t e e r i n g Committee proved t o b e v e r y s u c c e s s f u l . Graph ics a r e v e r y u s e f u l i n t h i s d i s c u s s i o n . The a n a l y s i s has been suppor ted b y an e x t e n s i v e s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s on v a r i a b l e s i n s t r a t e g i e s , s c e n a r i o s and t e c h n i c a l d a t a s e t . One o f t h e methods used i n t h i s i s w i t h META mode 1 s (6) . T h i s p r o v i ded i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e necessary w i d t h o f t h e c l a s s e s used and t h e d i s c r i m i n a t i o n between a l t e r n a t i v e s . I t a l s o p r o v i d e d a sound b a s i s f o r d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h t h e S t e e r i n g Committee.

Question 26

The dec is ion-makers accep ted t h e r e p o r t as a base for f u t u r e p o l i c i e s . They added i n s t i t u t i o n a l

and l e g a l " i n f o r m a t i o n " t o i t . The c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h e s t u d y a r e - among o t h e r s - s u g g e s t i o n s f o r t h e c a p a c i t i e s o f p r o j e c t s t h a t s h o u l d b e l i c e n s e d a t a maximum. D e c i s i o n s on t h e l i c e n s e s have n o t been t a k e n y e t . (January 1984). The s t u d y d i d n o t end up w i t h an " o p t i m a l " s o l u t - i o n . There i s no such t h i n g as " t h e " o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n i n t h i s case.

Questions 27/28

The d e s i g n o f a f i n a l p l a n was n o t p a r t o f t h i s s t u d y .

Question 29

Not y e t (January 1984)

6. Planning Stage 5: Project Design

The d e s i g n o f s u p p l y p i p e s and p r o j e c t s was n o t p a r t o f t h e j o b . Watercompanies themelves d e s i g n p a r t s o f t h e s u p p l y system w i t h i n t h e c o n s t r a i n t s o f l i c e n s e s and funds . The s i m u l a t i o n model D R l S l M i s used p r e s e n t l y t o t h e f u r t h e r d e s i g n o f p a r t s o f t h i s system.

Acknowledgement

The s t a r t o f t h e p r o j e c t and t h e f i r s t s t a g e o f t h e s t u d y have been gu ided b y t h e f i r s t p r o j e c t l eader M r . F . Langeweg o f R I D . W i t h o u t h i s d r i v i n g power t h e s t u d y wou ld p r o b a b l y have ended a t i t s b e g i n n i n g w i t h a l o t o f c o n f u s i o n between d i s c i p l i n e s . The s t u d y has been s u p p o r t e d by t h e S t e e r i ng Committee w i t h cha i rman M r . P . Verke rk and s e c r e t a r y D r . H . de B o o i s . The p o s i t i v e approach o f t h i s commi t tee t o t h e prob lems b o t h i n management and i n c o n t e n t s l a r g e l y c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e success .

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Literature

1) B r e s s e r , A.H.M., and W . K . P l u i j m , J u l y 1981 M u l t i o b j e c t i v e p l a n n i n g o f t h e wa te r s u p p l y f o r t h e P r o v i n c e o f Sou th -Ho l l and (The N e t h e r l a n d s ) Paper p r e s e n t e d a t t h e I F O R S ' 8 1 Conference i n Hamburg, 1981.

2) Anonymous, 1981 l n t e r i m r e p o r t ( i n Dutch) Repor t by t h e S t e e r i n g Comm i t t e e I ODZH N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r Water Supp ly ( R I D )

3) Anonymous, 1983 F i n a l r e p o r t ( i n Dutch) R e p o r t by t h e S t e e r i n g Comm i t t e e I ODZH Na t i ona 1 I n s t i t u t e for Water Supp ly (RID)

4) Graan, J.G. de, R.J.A. D u j a r d i n and J . K o s t e r , 1980 User manual o f COMPAN; a computer p r og r amme f o r m u l t i - l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s based on e i g e n v e c t o r s . N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r Water Sup,ply (RID)

5) Graan, J.G. de, 1978 Some e x t e n s i o n s t o t h e d e c i s i o n model o f Saaty N a t i o n a l l n s i t u t e f o r Water Supp ly ( R I D )

6) K l e i j n e n J.P.C., 1981 S t a t i s t i c a l aspec ts o f s i m u l a t i o n : an updated su rvey T i l b u r g U n i v e r s i t y

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ANNEX 1A Lines of equal effects on objectives for entire alternatives (for legends see Annex 1 B )

effects on vegetation

effects on birds

- - 10 110 120 130 140 150 I60 170 180 190 1100 1110 1120 113(

capacity of deep infiltration - effects on landscape

lo ll0 130 l o o im Iso Lo ln0 lg0 llo0 lll0 1120113 capacity of deep infiltration -

effects on waterqual i ty

effects on entire ecosystems effects on publ ic health

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ANNEX 1 B Lines of equa l e f fec ts on object ives for ent i re al ternat ives

security o f production

present value o f investments

production costs

reliability o f the supply

Legends

A = in conflict with the objective B = some conflicting points C = neutral or indifferent D = some positive points E = in full accordance with the objective

capacities in millions of rn3 /a

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ANNEX 2 Selection of harmonious alternatives

capacity of deep infiltration (in millions of m3 /a)

Legends

lmi Harmonious solutions mu Reasonably good solutions

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ANNEX 3 Comparison of alternative strategies on costs and vegetation effects

E I 0 I C I E I A

25 -

20 -

, ~ Alternative 7 Capacity surface infiltration = 50 million m3 /a Capacity deep infiltration = 40 million m3 /a

Additional strategies - ---.- - -

no deep infiltration; standard strategy

standard strategy + deep infiltration

use of reservoirs + existing plants - use of bankfiltration

---- new purification plant

E 1 0 I C I E I A

present value of total costs (million guilders)

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POST EVALUATION OF THE PLANNING PROCESS IN THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN LEVEL-B STUDY

BY

Yacov Y. HAIMES

KAI SUNG

Leonard T. CROOK

David GREGORKA

Professor and Principal Investigator of the Case Western Reserve University's portion of the study.

Ph.D. student at the Systems Engineering Department, Case Western Reserve University,Cleveland, Ohio.

Executive and Planning Director, Great Lakes Basin Commission. Ann Arbor, Michigan; also the supervisor of the Study Manager.

Senior Planner and Assistant to the Study Manager, Great Lakes Basin Commission, Ann Arbor, Michigan.

1. Introduction

A h i e r a r c h i c a l - m u l t i o b j e c t i v e mode l i ng and o p t i m i z a t i o n e f f o r t has been a p p l i e d t o Leve l -B p l a n n i n g i n t h e Maumee R i v e r Bas in . The p r i n c p a l e s . and s tandards f o r wa te r and r e l a t e d l a n d r e s o u r c e p l a n n i n g p repared b y t h e Water Resources Counc i l and adopted b y Congress on 10 September 1973 i d e n t i f y two ma jo r o b j e c t i v e s i n such p l a n n i n g :

1 . To enhance n a t i o n a l economic development by i n c r e a s i n g t h e v a l u e o f t h e N a t i o n ' s o u t p u t o f goods and s e r v i c e s , and i m p r o v i n g n a t i o n a l economic e f f i c i e n c y .

2 . To enhance t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e env i ronment by t h e management, c o n s e r v a t i o n , p r e s e r v a t i o n , c r e a t i on, r e s t o r a t i o n , o r improvement o f t h e qua l i t y o f c e r t a i n n a t u r a l and c u l t u r a l resources and e c o l o g i c a l systems.

The o v e r a l l purpose o f wa te r and l a n d r e s o u r c e p l a n n i n g i s t o p romote t h e q u a l i t y o f l i f e b y

r e f l e c t i n g s o c i e t y ' s p r e f e r e n c e s fo r a t t a i n i n g t h e o b j e c t i v e s d e f i n e d above. The t h r e e l e v e l s o f s t u d y , known as L e v e l s A , B, and C , a r e aimed a t i d e n t i f y i n g w a t e r and l a n d problems, d e v e l o p i n g p l a n s wh ich a r e r e s p o n s i v e t o t h e above o b j e c t i v e s , and f i n a l l y , imp lemen t ing t h e s e p l a n s .

The Leve l -B s t u d y i n t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n was s t r u c t u r e d t o i d e n t i f y and e v a l u a t e a l l o f t h e ma jo r w a t e r - r e l a t e d l a n d r e s o u r c e s p r o b 1 ems. I t cons i de red and e v a l u a t e d a l l o f t h e measures t h a t may r e s o l v e these prob lems and o f f e r e d b o t h an immediate a c t i o n and long - range a c t i o n p l a n fo r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n by v a r i o u s l e v e l s o f government. Programs were recommended t o f i l l d a t a and r e s e a r c h gaps. I n a d d i t i o n , a c o o r d i n a t e d approach t o needed d e t a i l e d s t u d i e s o f management and s t r u c t u r a l programs was i d e n t i f i e d f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n a t a l l l e v e l s o f government. The Maumee s t u d y a r e a c o n s i s t e d o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y 5,700,000 a c r e s o f l a n d and 40,000 a c r e s o f

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wa te r s u r f a c e (see Map). More than h a l f o f t h e l a t t e r i s t h e s u r f a c e o f Maumee Bay. Much o f t h e l a n d , n e a r l y l e v e l o r g e n t l y s l o p i n g , i s i n a g r i c u l t u r a l use . Because t h e s o i l has a s low p e r m e a b i l i t y r a t e , n a t u r a l d r a i n a g e problems e x i s t t h r o u g h o u t t h e b a s i n .

Much o f t h e b a s i n ' s a r e a i s p r ime a g r i c u l t u r a l land deve loped th rough d r a i n a g e o f the Grea t B lack Swamp. However, t h e r e a r e a l s o s u b s t a n t i a l u rban c o n c e n t r a t i o n s c e n t e r e d about t h e c i t i e s o f To ledo , Lima, and F o r t Wayne. A l ready t h i s r e p r e s e n t s an emerg ing c o n f l i c t ove r o p t i m a l a l l o c a t i o n o f l a n d use: whether u rban expans i o n or a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n s h o u l d have p r i o r i t y i n t h e f u t u r e . The most s e r i o u s i s s u e a t p r e s e n t i s t h a t o f water qua l i t y . P o i n t sou rces , mun i c i pa 1 and i n d u s t r i a l , and n o n p o i n t sources , u rban and a g r i c u l t u r a l r u n o f f , b o t h c o n t r i b u t e heav i 1 y t o waste 1 oads . S e d i m e n t a t i o n due t o e r o s i o n i s a p rob lem t h r o u g h o u t t h e bas in , wh ich i s a m p l i f i e d th rough d e p o s i t s a t t h e Maumee Bay. S h o r e l i n e f l o o d i n g remains a t roub lesome problem, and n a v i g a t i o n a l i s s u e s a r e q u i t e i m p o r t a n t t o t h e economy o f t h e r e g i o n . F i n a l l y , q u a l i t y o f l i f e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s come i n t o p l a y i n t h e areas o f r e c r e a t i o n , f i sh and w i I d 1 i f e p r e s e r v a t i o n , and env i ronmen ta l c o n s e r v a t i o n .

I

R e l a t e d problems f o r purposes o f t h e Maumee s t u d y have been i s o l a t e d and a r e r e f e r r e d t o under t h e c a t e g o r i e s o f land r e s o u r c e management, e r o s i o n and s e d i m e n t a t i o n , wa te r q u a l i t y , f i s h e r y resources , w i l d l i f e and h u n t i n g , ou tdoor r e c r e a t i o n , f l o o d i n g , and wa te r supp ly .

P l a n n i n g f o r t h e area i n v o l v e d b o t h p o l i t i c a l and h y d r o l o g i c boundar ies . The e n t i r e t h r e e - s t a t e Maumee R i v e r Bas in , i n c l u d i n g t h e e n t i r e d r a i n a g e a r e a o f Maumee Bay, was cons ide red , as were t h e s t a t e and coun ty boundar ies encompassing t h e d r a i n a g e a rea . R ive r b a s i n s c r o s s s t a t e and c o u n t r y l i n e s .and a r e governed by a broad a r r a y o f

p o l i t i c a l i n s t i t u t i o n s . To m i n i m i z e c o m p l e x i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c r o s s i n g p o l i t i c a l b o u n d a r i e s , t h e Maumee s t u d y a rea was d i v i d e d i n t o f i v e subareas , each bounded b y c o u n t y l i n e s and each l y i n g w i t h i n a s ing l 'e s t a t e . A s i x t h p l a n n i n g subarea, Maumee Bay, was u n i q u e i n t h a t i t i s composed e n t i r e l y o f w a t e r . Leve l -B p l a n n i n g s t u d i e s a t t e m p t t o c o o r d i n a t e and i n v o l v e a l l l e v e l s and u n i t s o f government r e s p o n s i b l e for w a t e r r e s o u r c e s i n t h e area s t u d i e d . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h e Maumee Leve l -B Study i v o l v e d s t a t e , r e g i o n a l , 1 oca 1 and f e d e r a l agenc i es .

The u l t i m a t e o b j e c t i v e was t o f o r m u l a t e a comprehensive management p l a n w h i c h wou ld a1 l e v i a t e t h e s e r i o u s p r o b l e m o f t h e b a s i n . The purpose o f t h i s s t u d y was t o i n v e s t i g a t e some o f t h e s e c r i t i c a l a reas w h i c h must b e faced i n t h e development o f such a p l a n . I n p a r t i c u l a r a r e two b road areas o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n : (1) t e c h n i ca 1 p r o b 1 ems, i nc 1 u d i ng t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f g o a l s and d e c i s i o n v a r i a b l e s , and t h e measurement o f pa ramete rs and per fo rmance; ( 2 ) i n s t i t u t i o n a l p rob lems, i n c l u d i n g a r e a o f i nf 1 uence and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y , and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f r e s o u r c e s .

2. Planning State 1: Pro jec t In i t ia t ion and Pre l im inary Planning

Question I

Yes. The Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Leve l -B Study i n i t i a t e d b y t h e G r e a t Lakes B a s i n Commission was an e f f o r t t o s e t up a comprehensive 15-year (1976-1990) program (p lan ) t o d e a l

w i t h t h e major p rob lems i n t h e b a s i n , such as w a t e r q u a l i t y and land use ( i n c l u d i n g s o i l e r o s i o n , r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s , p r e s e r v a t i o n o f w i l d l i f e h a b i t a t , f l o o d c o n t r o l , e t c . ) . The goa l o f t h i s r e s e a r c h was t o d e v e l o p a management framework for t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n ' s w a t e r and l a n d resources prob lems w i t h i n t h e g u i d e l i n e s o f t h e Water Resources C o u n c i l ' s P r i n c i p l e s and S tandards .

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A t t h e t i m e t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Study was s t a r t e d , a l e v e l - A l o n g - t e r m p l a n n i n g programme was underway and n e a r i n g c o m p l e t i o n . The Level-A S tudy covered t h e e n t i r e Grea t Lakes r e g i o n and encompassed p o r t i o n s o f e i g h t Grea t Lakes s t a t e s , a l l o f t h e U . S . w a t e r a rea o f t h e l akes , and t h e S t . Lawrence R i v e r as f a r as t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l boundary . I t was con temp la ted t h a t t h e more i n v o l v e d , c o m p l i c a t e d , and immediate p rob lem areas w i t h i n t h e e n t i r e Great Lakes b a s i n wou ld be t r e a t e d w i t h i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l - B s t u d i e s o f t h e Maumee t y p e . The most u r g e n t p rob lems i n t h e Grea t Lakes B a s i n were c o n s i d e r e d by t h e Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission t o be t h e Maumee R i v e r b a s i n , wh ich p r o v i d e d t h e s u b j e c t o f t h e f i r s t l e v e l - B s t u d y i n i t i a t e d a f t e r t h e Leve l -A Study o f t h e Grea t Lakes B a s i n as a who le .

Question 2

The g r e a t Lakes Bas i n Commission fo rmed a P l a n n i n g Board, w i t h members f r o m t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a t e and f e d e r a l government agenc ies : t h e I n d i a n a Department o f N a t u r a l Resources, t h e M i c h i g a n Department o f N a t u r a l Resources, t h e Oh io Env i ronmen ta l P r o t e c t i o n Agency, t h e U.S . Department o f A g r i c u l t u r e , t h e U.S. Army Corps o f Eng ineers , t h e U.S. Env i ronmen ta l

Department o f t h e I n t e r i o r , t h e Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission, and t h e Maumee C i t i z e n ' s A d v i s o r y Committee (CAC) .

P r o t e c t i o n Agency, t h e U.S .

I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e r e l a t i v e l y h i g h l y s k i l l e d pe rsonne l i n t h e s t a t e and f e d e r a l agenc ies , t h e G r e a t Lakes B a s i n Commission's p l ann i ng s t a f f f o resaw t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f t e s t i n g i n n o v a t i v e p l a n n i n g p rocesses i n t h e development o f t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n p l a n . One o f t hese p rocesses was t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f method o f h i e r a r c i c a l p l a n n i n g t h a t was b e i n g deve loped a t t h a t t i m e by Dr. Yacov Haimes o f Case Western Reserve U n i v e r s i t y and D r . Warren H a l l . Or. Haimes was a g r e e a b l e t o t h e i dea o f c o o p e r a t i n g w i t h t h e

Commission's p l a n n i n g , and fo rmed a r e s e a r c h team task w i t h t h e t i t l e : A M u l t i o b j e c t i v e A n a l y s i s i n t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n - A Case S tudy on Leve l -B P l a n n i n g . T h i s team was composed o f , i n a d d i t i o n t o Dr. Ha i mes as t h e p r i nc i pa 1 i n v e s t i g a t o r , t h r e e f u l l - t i m e r e s e a r c h a s s i s t a n t s and one t e c h n i c a l s e c r e t a r y . A l so i n v o l v e d i n t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t , on a p a r t - t i m e b a s i s , were one p o s t - d o c t o r a l f e l l o w and f o u r o t h e r r e s e a r c h a s s i s t a n t s .

The p u b l i c was i n v o l v e d i n t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s . I n f a c t , t h e C i t i z e n s ' A d v i s o r y Committee was e s t a b l i s h e d i n o r d e r t o r e p r e s e n t t h e p u b l i c and i n t e r e s t e d c i t i z e n s ' o r g a n i z a t i o n s i n Ind iana , M ich igan , and Ohio. I n response t o t h e ma jo r problems and concerns w i t h i n t h e b a s i n , t h e C A C i d e n t i f i e d e i g h t m a j o r g o a l s f o r t h e Leve l -B p l a n .

Question 3

From t h e b e g i n n i n g i t was c l e a r t h a t l i m i t s wou ld b e s e t on t h i s p r o j e c t i n terms o f t h e funds g r a n t e d (1.5 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s ) and t h e t i m e a v a i l a b l e (3 y e a r s ) . Other f a c t o r s t h a t i n f l u e n c e d t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s t u d y were t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e agenc ies c o n d u c t i n g t h e s tudy , t h e n e u t r a l i t y o f t h e commission s t a f f , and t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y and i n t e r e s t o f t h e s e v e r a l s t a t e s i n t h e s t u d y .

The n a t i o n w i d e c r i t e r i a f o r l e v e l - B s t u d i e s r e q u i r e d a r e v i e w o f seve re problems and t h e development o f a s e r i e s o f a 1 t e r na t i ve s o l u t i o n s . The a1 t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s suppor ted t h r e e d i f f e r e n t g o a l s : n a t i ona 1 econom i c development, env i ronmen ta l q u a l i t y , and a mixed approach.

The n a t i o n a l c r i t e r i a f o r l e v e l - B s t u d i e s a l s o r e q u i r e d t h a t t h e s e s t u d i e s do n o t n o r m a l l y d e v e l o p s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t s f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n b u t shou ld i n s t e a d p r e s e n t a program for t h e . b a s i n w i d e r e s o 1 u t i on o f p r o b 1 ems. Consequent ly , s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t

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d e s i g n was n o t under taken i n t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Level-B S tudy . The normal d e c i s i o n c r i t e r i a f o r p r o j e c t development (such as t h a t i t p r e s e n t s a f a v o r a b l e b e n e f i t / c o s t r a t i o , t h a t t h e r e i s no l e s s expens ive way t o ach ieve t h e same b e n e f i t , t h a t each p a r t o f t h e p r o j e c t i s i n c r e m e n t a l l y j u s t i f i e d , and t h a t t h e p r o j e c t w i l l b e n e f i t t h e p u b l i c as a who le r a t h e r than j u s t a s m a l l segment o f t h e popu 1 a t i on) were n o t r i g i d 1 y emp 1 oyed .

Question 4

Because t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Leve l -B Study was c o n s t r a i n e d b y t i m e and f u n d i n g as w e l l as b y t h e use of e x i s t i n g d a t a and c o n c l u s i o n s o f p a s t and ongo ing s t u d i e s , not a l l o f t h e Goals and O b j e c t i v e s e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e C i t i zens I Adv iso ry Committee c o u l d be met by t h i s s t u d y . More s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e l i m i t i n g use o f e x i s t i n g d a t a was imposed by t h e Water Resources Counc i l i n t h e i r "New Approaches t o Leve l -B P l a n n i n g . " T h i s , t o g e t h e r w i t h a f u n d i n g c u t ( t o 1.5 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s ) and t i m e c u t (3 yea rs ) p resen ted prob lems th roughou t t h e e n t i r e s t u d y p e r i o d . Moreover, t h e N a t i o n a l Water Resources C o u n c i l ' s P r i n c i p l e s and Standards f o r Water and R e l a t e d Land Resources P l a n n i n g caused more c o n f u s i o n r a t h e r than gu idance. Each agency i n v o l v e d i n t h e s t u d y had v a r i ous i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s and e x p l a n a t i o n s o f t h e P r i n c i p l e s and Standards . Because these i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s expanded t h e r a n g e o f suggested a c t i on, add i t i o n a l c o n s t r a i n t s seemed t o e x i s t i n t h a t t h e members o f t he Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission o b j e c t e d t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e extreme a l t e r n a t i v e s which wou ld p roduce e i t h e r a t o t a l l y economic development-or i e n t e d p l a n o r a t o t a l l y e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r e s e r v a t i o n and improvement p l a n , s i n c e these extremes wou ld be unaccep tab le t o c e r t a i n segments o f t h e p u b l i c and m i g h t be p o l i t i c a l l y damaging. Consequent ly , t h e s t a f f and t h e P l a n n i n g Board were d i r e c t e d t o e l i m i n a t e t h e more d r a s t i c ex t remes f i r s t des igned and cons ide r t h o s e

c l o s e r t o a m i d p o i n t . The n a t i o n a l laws i n e f f e c t a t t h i s t i m e p l a c e d p r i m a r y w a t e r q u a l i t y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n t h e hands o f t h e s t a t e , w i t h t h e f e d e r a l government h a v i n g r e g u l a t o r y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . The s t u d y needed a systems approach t o w a t e r q u a l i t y and a wa te r q u a l i t y p l a n f o r t h e e n t i r e b a s i n . The s t a t e s were n o t equ ipped t o p r e p a r e such a p l a n . The f e d e r a l government r e f u s e d t o u n d e r t a k e i t s i n c e t h e y c o n s i d e r e d t h i s t o be a s t a t e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y and i n t e r p r e t e d f e d e r a l r e g u l a t i o n s t o a l l o w o n l y one approach t o w a t e r q u a l i t y improvement. Consequent ly , t h e P l a n n i n g Board c o u l d n o t use a d e s i r a b l e systems approach on a q u a n t i t a t i v e b a s i s t h a t m i g h t have l e d t o an optimum s o l u t i o n t o t h e w a t e r q u a l i t y p rob lems i n t h e b a s i n , and t h e y i n s t e a d s e l e c t e d as a s u r r o g a t e t h e a r b i t a r y r e d u c t i o n i n s i l t as an i n d i c a t o r o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y w i t h i n t h e r i v e r . T h i s i s a r e l a t i v e l y c o r r e c t b u t l i m i t e d r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . I t o b v i o u s l y i s n o t a f u l l t r e a t m e n t o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y p rob lem. Consequent ly , t h e s t u d y was inadequa te i n t h i s r e s p e c t .

Question 5

No. I n a d d i t i o n t o d i s c u s s i o n c o n c e r n i n g e n v i r o m e n t a l q u a l i t y , t h e e f f i c a c y o f t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f (SWT) method was i n i t i a l l y q u e s t i o n e d because o f i t s newness and un t es t ed cond i t i on. The c o n s u l t a n t s f r o m Case Western Reserve U n i v e r s i t y p r e s e n t e d t h e i r method t o t h e P l a n n i n g Board . The P l a n n i n g Board was encouraged t o s u p p o r t t h e development o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n needed b y t h e SWT p r a c t i o n e r s . Agreement ove r methods t o be used o r d i s p u t e s a r i s i n g w i t h i n t h e P l a n n i n g Board, between t h e P l a n n i n g Board and t h e t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t s and c o n s u l t a n t s , o r between t h e C i t i z e n s ' A d v i s o r y Committee and t h e s t u d y commi t tee were r e s o l v e d by a S t e e r i n g Commi t t e e wh i ch r e p r e s e n t e d s u p e r v i s o r s o f t h e P l a n n i n g Board members. The B a s i n Commissions had t h e f i n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for t h e s p e c i f i c recommendations emanat ing from t h e s t u d y .

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3. Planning Stage 2 - Data Collection and Processing

Question 6

Leve l -B s t u d i e s a r e p r e c l u d e d f rom c o l l e c t i n g d a t a as a s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t y . I n most cases where c r i t i c a l d a t a a r e absent , a minimum d a t a c o l l e c t i o n e f f o r t , w i t h i n f u n d i n g and t i m e l i m i t a t i o n s , i s p e r m i t t e d ; however, most p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s had spen t more t i m e and money on d a t a c o l l e c t i o n t h a n on p rob lem r e s o l u t i o n , and t h e Leve l -B Study was des igned t o c o u n t e r a c t t h i s s i t u a t i o n .

The s tudy used t h e O B E R S Se r ies -E p r o j e c t i o n s o f n a t i o n a l demographic and economic g r o w t h . OBERS i s an acronym d e r i v e d from t h e two f e d e r a l agenc ies i n v o l v e d i n t h e i r p r e p a r a t i o n : t h e Bureau o f Economic A n a l y s i s (U.S. Depar tment o f Commerce) and t h e Economic Research S e r v i c e (U.S. Department o f A g r i c u l t u r e ) . These two f e d e r a l agenc ies a r e t h e p r i n c i p a l sou rces o f t h e long- range p r o j e c t s o f p o p u l a t i o n and demand f o r r e s o u r c e s used b y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .

I n t h e ma themat i ca l a n a l y s i s used i n t h e Maurnee R i v e r B a s i n S tudy , t h e base year d a t a c o n s i s t e d o f d a t a f rom 1974 and 1975, and t h e 1990 d a t a p r o j e c t i o n came f r o m O B E R S Ser ies -E p r o j e c t i o n s . The p h y s i c a l d a t a used i n t h e s t u d y i n c l u d e i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e d r a i n a g e area , l a n d use and l a n d a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e b a s i n fo r a g r i c u l t u r e and o t h e r l a n d a c t i v i t i e s , and h y d r o l o g i c and p o l l u t i o n e f f l u e n t d a t a fo r t h e e x i s t i n g t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s p l u s t h e i r c a p a c i t i e s and l o c a t i o n . V a r i o u s agenc ies were t h e sou rce o f e s t i m a t e d d a t a , such as t h e e f e c t i v e n e s s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l development and f l o o d i n g p r e v e n t i o n .

The Corps of Eng ineers had r e c e n t l y comple ted a b a s i n w i d e s t u d y o f h y d r o l o g i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e b a s i n and t h e i r impacts upon f l o o d c o n t r o l . Consequent 1 y , no a d d i t i o n a l h y d r o l o g i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n s were conducted .

SOC

supp 1 i ed p o l i t i c a b a s i n .

Quest

a1 and economic d a t a were b y t h e s t a t e and o t h e r

s u b d i v i s i o n s w i t h i n t h e

on 7

I n g e n e r a l , on,ly e x i s t i n g d a t a were used. However, new ana lyses and d i s p l a y s o f e x i s t i n g d a t a were deve loped. A r t i f i c i a l g e n e r a t i o n o f h y d r o l o g i c d a t a had been deve loped b y t h e Corps o f Eng ineers and t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n was a v a i l a b l e t o t h e s t u d y . Some measurements were c o n t i n u e d d u r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g s tage , such as w a t e r q u a l i t y measurements, but these had r e l a t i v e l y minor e f f e c t s on p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g .

Question 8a

No

Question 86

Yes. I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e l a n d resources management c o s t o p t i m i z a t i o n model, wh ich was composed o f an a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d management p r a c t i c e s submodel, a r e c r e a t i o n a l development submodel, a w i l d l i f e p r e s e r v a t i o n submodel, and a f l o o d p l a i n a c q u i s i t i o n submodel, was r e s t r i c t e d t o b e i n g a l i n e a r model because o f t h e i ncomp le te i n f o r m a t i o n o r d a t a on these r e l a t e d s u b j e c t s .

I t was apparen t t h a t a water q u a l i t y p l a n n i n g model shou ld be developed, t a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n c o n t r i b u t i ons from p o i n t and non-po in t sources j o i n t l y . I n t h i s phase o f t h e research , f o u r p o l 1 u t a n t cons i s t u e n t s were cons ide red f o r i n t e n s i v e s t u d y . T.hese were sediment, phosphorus f rom p o i n t sou rces , phosphorus f rom d i s t r i b u t e d sources , and t h e b i o 1 og i ca 1 oxygen demand (BOD) 1 oad f r o m m u n i c i p a l and i n d u s t r i a l was te d i s c h a r g e s .

However, t h i s i s n o t t o i m p l y t h a t o t h e r p o l l u t i n g substances a r e n o t i m p o r t a n t . The l a c k o f d a t a and a l ack o f knowledge o f t he r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e amount o f

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d i s c h a r g e o f t h e s e c o n s t i t u e n t s and t h e r e s u l t i n g l e v e l o f water q u a l i t y p reven ted us f rom i n c l u d i n g them i n t h e a n a l y s i s .

Question 9

No.

Question 10

No.

4. Planning Stage 3: Formulation and Screening of Project Alternatives

Question 1 7

The r e s o u r c e s o f t i m e funds and personne l used i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess have been d i s c u s s e d i n P l a n n i n g Stage 1 . An a d d i t i o n a l $100,000 was g r a n t e d by t h e N a t i o n a l Sc ience Founda t ion and the O f f i c e o f Water Research and Technology t o s u p p o r t t h e CWRU m u l t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t y used f o r t h e s t u d y . V a r i o u s comput ing f a c i l i t i e s were e x t e n s i v e l y used t o genera te and c o n f i r m t h e d a t a needed and t o a n a l y z e t h e o b j e c t i v e t r a d e - o f f s f i n a l l y recommended by t h e CWRU r e s e a r c h team. A UNIVAC 1108 computer was used f o r t h e mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s .

Question 12

I n s t i t u t i o n a l s u p p o r t was p r o v i d e d by t h e U . S . Water Resources Counc i l w i t h r e s p e c t t o f u n d i n g o f t h e p r o j e c t by t h e f e d e r a l government. The Counc i l a l s o o b t a i n e d responses f r o m t h e f e d e r a l agency and a t tempted w i t h o u t success t o r e s o l v e t h e p rob lem o f t h e lukewarm c o o p e r a t i o n o f t h e U . S . E P A .

The Grea t Lakes Bas i n Commission p r o v i d e d s u b s t a n t i a l a d d i t i o n a l s u p p o r t t o t h e s t u d y by p r o v i d i n g s p e c i a l i z e d h e l p when needed and s u p p l y i n g a d d i t i o n a l manpower f o r p u b l i c r e l a t i o n s i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h t h e C i t i z e n s ' Adv iso ry Committee. The s t a t e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y Oh i 0 , f u r n i s h e d t o p - l e v e l s u p p o r t where needed and

a l s o p r o v i d e d i n p u t f r o m t h e i r r e g u l a r p l a n n i n g agenc ies . A l l needed p a s t r e c o r d s o f t h e s t a t e s were made a v a i l a b l e . Loca 1 p o l i t i c a l e n t i t i e s p r o v i d e d c o o p e r a t i v e s u p p o r t i n fu rn ish i ,ng m e e t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , p u b l i c n o t i c e s , and o t h e r genera 1 s u p p o r t a c t i v i t i e s . The c o o p e r a t i o n was g e n e r a l l y adequate . However, more t i m e l y i n p u t wou ld have been h e l p f u l f r o m t h e f e d e r a l agenc i es , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e d e a l i n g w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y .

The s t u d y conducted by t h e CWRU team was m o n i t o r e d by a c a r e f u l l y s e l e c t e d Adv i s o r y Comm i t t e e c o n s i s t i n g o f one member from each o f t h e f o l l o w i n g agenc ies : ( i ) t h e Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission ( i i ) t h e U.S. Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r e , Economic Research S e r v i c e ( i i i ) t h e U . S . G e o l o g i c a l Survey, Water Resources D i v i s i o n , and ( i v ) t h e U . S . Water Resources C o u n c i l . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e P r i n c i p a l I n v e s t i g a t o r a t t e n d e d mee t ings o f t h e A d v i s o r y Committee, as d i d p r o j e c t o f f i c e r s f rom t h e N a t i o n a l Sc i ence Foundat ion--Res.earch Appl i e d t o N a t i o n a l Needs Program, and t h e U . S . Department o f t h e I n t e r i o r - - O f f i c e o f Water Research and Techno logy .

Question 73

C i t i z e n i nvo lvemen t p l a y e d an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n goa l s e t t i n g , t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s , t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f p r i o r i t i e s , and t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e f i n a l p l a n s . One mechanism f o r p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n was t h e C i t i z e n ' s A d v i s o r y Committee (CAC), a nongovernmental g roup o f t h i r t y p r i v a t e c i t i z e n s f r o m t h e t h r e e s t a t e s who worked c l o s e l y w i t h t h e government p l a n n e r s i n g u i d i n g p l a n development. The p r e l i m i n a r y a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s deve loped i n t h e f i r s t phase o f t h e s t u d y were rev iewed and r e f i n e d t h r o u g h a s e r i e s o f p u b l i c workshops h e l d i n c i t i e s a c r o s s t h e b a s i n d u r i n g October 1974. F o l l o w i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h i s r e v i e w and f u r t h e r r e f i n e m e n t and agreement by members, t h e C A C p u b l i s h e d i t s Goals Repor t (March, 1975) .

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A s e r i e s o f open and i n f o r m a t i o n p u b l i c forums was h e l d i n e i g h t c i t i e s i n January , 1976. The purpose o f t h e s e forums was t o r e v i e w t h e Economic Development and Env i ronmen ta l Q u a l i t y A l t e r n a t i v e P lans as s t a r t i n g p o i n t s f o r d i s c u s s i o n o f what c i t i z e n s wou ld l i k e t o see i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e F i n a l P l a n . A t t h e t i m e o f t h e forums, w r i t t e n comments on t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s were a1 so s o l i c i t e d , and a q u e s t i o n n a i r e was m a i l e d t o everyone on t h e Maumee Study m a i l i n g l i s t . The purpose o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e was t o q u a n t i f y p u b l i c c h o i c e s and concerns i n a way t h a t wou ld a s s i s t t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess .

The q u e s t i o n n a i r e , t h e summar i es o f s m a l l work -group d i s c u s s i o n s t h a t t ook p l a c e d u r i n g t h e fo rums, and t h e r e v i e w s and p r e f e r e n c e s s t a t e d by t h e C A C were a l l used i n d e f i n i n g t h e F i n a l P l a n and i n a s s i g n i n g r e l a t i v e p u b l i c p r i o r i t i e s t o proposed programs. The F i n a l P l a n t h u s r e f l e c t s p u b l i c p r e f e r e n c e s f o r imp lement ing programs and a d d r e s s i n g t h e wa te r and r e l a t e d l a n d - r e s o u r c e needs o f t h e Maumee B a s i n .

Question 74

The Maumee C i t i z e n ' s A d v i s o r y Committee p r o v i d e d t h e g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s used i n f o r m u l a t i n g t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s and t h e recommended c o u r s e o f a c t i o n . The d e t a i l e d development o f t h e g o a l s focused on t h e f o l l o w i n g a reas o f concern : l a n d use and management, e r o s i o n and s e d i m e n t a t i o n c o n t r o l , wa te r q u a l i t y management, f i s h and w i l d l i f e management, o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n development, d r a i n a g e and f l o o d damage r e d u c t i o n , wa te r supp ly development, management o f Maumee Bay, and l e g a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l , and l e g i s l a t i v e i s s u e s .

Throughout t h e Study , t h e a l t e r n a t i v e measures were r e f i n e d and and r e e v a l u a t e d i n l i g h t o f t h e g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e C i t i z e n ' s A d v i s o r y Committee. Over 560 ma jo r a l t e r n a t i v e measures t o s o l v e v a r i o u s r e s o u r c e prob lems

were i d e n t i f i e d d u r i n g t h e cou rse o f

deve I opment and ana 1 ys i s o f a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s and o f t h e Recommended Level-B P l a n were o r i e n t e d toward t h e P r i n c i p l e s and Standards fo r Water and R e l a t e d Land Resources P1 anni ng. (Federa l R e g i s t e r , Sep t . 2 3 , 1973).

t h e Study . The met hod o f

Programs were deve loped f o r t h e ca tegor i es o f 1 and resources management, e r o s i o n and sed irnentat i o n , water qua l i t y , w i l d l i f e , f i s h e r y resources , ou tdoor r e c r e a t i o n , f l o o d i n g , water s u p p l y , and Maumee Bay. C o n s i d e r a t i o n was g i ven t o s t r u c t u r a l and n o n s t r u c t u r a l s o l u t i o n s r e g a r d l e s s o f whether t h e s o l u t i o n s wou ld be under taken by t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r o r by any o f s e v e r a l u n i t s and l e v e l s o f government.

A l l p r a c t i c a b l e management measures, b o t h s t r u c t u r a l and n o n s t r u c t u r a l , were screened f o r e f f e c t i v e n e s s , a c c e p t a b i l i t y , and t e c h n i c a l f e a s i b i l i t y f o r mee t ing problems, needs, and o p p o r t u n i t i e s . P r eserva t i on , conserva t i on, and development o f wa te r and r e l a t e d l a n d resources w e r e ' a l l cons ide red . Var i ous p o t e n t i a 1 a1 t e r n a t i v e components were n o t c o n s i d e r e d f u r t h e r because o f l a c k o f p u b l i c i n t e r e s t , 1 ack o f econom i c j u s t i f i c a t i o n , o r due t o t e c h n i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . I n b r i e f , more t h a n 560 a l t e r n a t i v e s were suggested by t h e C i t i z e n s ' Adv iso ry Committee, t h e P l a n n i n g Committee, and t h e Grea t Lakes Bas in Commission. The P l a n n i n g Board , i n g e n e r a l , dec ided upon t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s t o be i n v e s t i g a t e d i n d e t a i l .

Question 75:

The h i e r a r c h i e s and t h e v a r i o u s l e v e l s o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e dec i s ion -mak ing p rocess were d i scussed under Q u e s t i o n 5 i n P l a n n i n g S tage 1 .

The P l a n n i n g Board was composed o f p l a n n e r s who had u t i l i z e d t r a d i t i o n a l methods i n d e v e l o p i n g p l a n s f o r w a t e r resources programs and p r o j e c t s . They were, i n

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g e n e r a l , n o t f a m i l i a r w i t h t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f (SWT) method o r w i t h t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l t echn iques u t i l i z e d i n t h i s method. They q u e s t i o n e d t h e e f f i c a c y o f d e v e l o p i n g a p l a n u t i l i z i n g these methods w h i c h r e l i e d upon t h e P a r e t o optimum o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l p l a n n e r . They were accustomed t o g i v i n g a s i n g l e answer, i n g e n e r a l , r a t h e r t h a n a range o f P a r e t o o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s . Consequent ly , t h e consu l t a n t s f r o m CWRU had i n i t i a l l y c o n s i d e r a b l e d i f f i c u l t y i n s e c u r i n g f r o m i n d i v i d u a l members o f t h e P l a n n i n g Board t h e i r o b j e c t i v e s and an a r t i c u l a t i o n o f t h e i r s u b j e c t i v e t r a d e - o f f s . Many t imes a p e r s o n was u n a b l e t o d e s c r i b e why he p r e f e r r e d a s p e c i f i c s o l u t i o n and what he was w i l l i n g t o g i v e up t o a c h i e v e i t . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h r o u g h i t e r a t i v e e f f o r t s , t h e o b j e c t i v e t r a d e - o f f s were genera ted v i a t h e SWT method, w i t h v a r i ous l e v e l s o f dec i s ion -makers c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f f u n c t i o n s . The t r a d e - o f f s were o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h an imp1 i c i t p rocess t h a t was e x p l i c i t l y expressed by t h e SWT method.

A procedure f o r o b t a i n i n g t r a d e - o f f s can b e found i n Haimes and H a l l (1974), Haimes (198O), and Chankong and Haimes (1982) .

Question 16

B a s i c a l l y , t h e same s e t o f c o n s t r a i n t s d e s c r i b e d i n Q u e s t i o n 4 extended i t s e f f e c t t o t h i s p l a n n i n g s t a g e . Moreover, because o f t h e complex, i n t e r s t a t e n a t u r e o f t h i s Leve l -B p l a n n i n g e f f o r t , t h e bas i n was decomposed i n t o p l a n n i n g subareas c o n s i s t i n g o f groups o f c o u n t i e s . These p l a n n i n g subarea boundar ies , a l t h o u g h u s e f u l f o r e f f i c i e n t econom i c and demographic d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , o f t e n d i d n o t c o i n c i d e w i t h t h e h y d r o l o g i c b o u n d a r i e s . T h e r e f o r e , some recommendations s e t f o r t h by t h e Leve l -B P l a n would have t o be s l i g h l y m o d i f i e d b e f o r e they c o u l d be i n t e g r a t e d i n t o o t h e r p l a n n i n g and r e s o u r c e agency e f f o r t s . For example, o n l y t h o s e p o r t i o n s o f t h e

P l a n i n t h e h y d r o l o g i c b a s i n c o u l d be adopted as p a r t o f t h e G r e a t Lakes B a s i n P lan .

Occas iona l gaps i n t h e d a t a base f o r t h e Leve l -B Study may p r e s e n t ano the r m e t h o d o l o g i c a l c o n s t r a i n t on i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The s t u d y methodo logy focused d i r e c t l y on t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g d a t a sources and n o t on t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f new and o r i g i n a l d a t a . T h i s f a c t o r , a l o n g w i t h t h e f a c t t h a t t h i s s t u d y i s t h e f i r s t i n t h e b a s i n t h a t t a k e s a m u l t i o b j e c t i v e approach t o p l a n n i n g and a t t e m p t s t o p r e s e n t a u n i f o r m l e v e l o f d e t a i l f o r each p l a n n i n g e lemen t , p r o v i d e s t h e reason f o r o c c a s i o n a l d a t a gaps. These gaps may a c t as a c o n s t r a i n t on t h e l o c a l , c o u n t y , r e g i o n a l , or s t a t e o f f i c i a l who seeks t o implement a Leve l -B P l a n recommended f o r a s p e c i f i c a r e a . However, i t must be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t where d a t a gaps and needs f o r a d d i t i o n a l s t u d i es have been i d e n t i f i e d , s p e c i f i c recommendaions t h e r e o n a r e embodied i n t h e Leve l -B P l a n .

One ma j o r 1 e g i s 1 a t i v e i n f l u e n c e on t h e development o f t h e wa te r q u a l i t y p o r t i o n o f t h e S tudy i s t h e Federa l Water P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l A c t Amendments o f 1972 (P.L. 92-500) . T h i s f e d e r a l a c t s e t s u p t h e framework f o r w a t e r q u a l i t y p l a n n i n g thoughout t h e n a t i o n .

The s t r u c t u r e o f t h e S tudy o r g a n i z a t i o n was one o f t h e most d i f f i c u l t f a c t o r s , and i t posed a n a t u r a l c o n s t r a i n t t h a t e v e r y s t u d y member f a c e s c o n s t a n t l y . I t w o u l d b e u s e f u 1 t o desc r i be t h e s t r u c t u r a l anatomy h e r e t o r e a l i z e t h e Study s i t u a t i o n .

The Maumee R i v e r Bas i n P l a n n i n g Board c o n s i s t e d o f one member f r o m each o f t h e f o l l o w i n g agenc ies : The Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission (which a l s o se rved as

Env i ronmen ta l P r o t e c t i o n Agency;

Agr i c u l t u r e , Soi 1 C o n s e r v a t i o n S e r v i c e ; t h e U.S . Army Corps o f

Study Manager) ; t h e U.S.

The U . S . Department o f

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Eng ineers : t h e U . S . Department o f t h e I n t e r i o r , Bureau o f Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n ; t h e Ohio Env i ronmen ta l P r o t e c t i o n Agency; t h e I n d i a n a Department o f N a t u r a l Resources; and t h e M i c h i g a n Department o f N a t u r a l Resources. A S t e e r i n g Committee, made UP o f h i g h e r - l e v e l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s f rom t h e above agenc ies , was charged w i t h r e s o l v i n g p o s s i b l e c o n f l i c t s among t h e agenc ies a t P l a n n i n g Board l e v e l and p r o v i d i n g g u i d e l i n e s f o r p o l i c y i ssues .

The i n t e r a g e n c y s e t t i n g added t o t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e s t u d y team where t h e a g e n c i e s ' manpower and o t h e r resources were made a v a i l a b l e t o t h e s t u d y . However, t h i s s t r u c t u r e had r i g i d i t i e s and o b s t a c l e s , such as t h e i n a b i l i t y o f s e v e r a l P l a n n i n g Board members t o e x e r c i s e t h e i r own p r o f e s s i o n a l judgements because they were under s p e c i f i c i n s t r u c t i o n s from t h e i r s u p e r v i s o r s o r were bound by l o n g s t a n d i n g agency p o l i c i e s .

Question 77

The f o l l o w i n g models were used:

1) t h e MORE mode 1 (Mu 1 t i p 1 e An a n a l y t i c a l l i n e a r programming O b j e c t i v e Resources E v a l u a t i o n ) model f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l a n a l y s i s

deve loped b y t h e Economic Research S e r v i c e , U.S. Department o f A g r i c u l t u r a l , f o r genera l usage.

2 ) t h e SWT method ( S u r r o g a t e Worth An a n a l y t i c a l l i n e a r / n o n l i n e a r T r a d e - o f f ) programming method f o r m u l t i -

o b j e c t i v e ana l ys i s deve loped b y Yacov Y . Haimes and Warren A . H a l l .

o p t i m i z a t i on

3) h y d r o l o g i c a l f l o o d - p l a n models

4) t h e Maumee Bay Study Model

A s i m u l a t i o n model f o r h y d r o l o g i c a l a n a l y s i s deve loped b y t h e U . S . Army Corps o f Eng ineers f o r genera l usage.

A s i m u l a t i o n model f o r t h e s t u d y o f t h e Maumee Bay prob lems deve loped by t h e Great Lakes Env i ronmen ta l Res- sea rch L a b o r a t o r y - - N a t i o n a l Oceanic and Atmospher ic A d m i n i s t r a t i o n (G LE RL -NO AA) (Dr. A r thus P insak) f o r t h i s p r o j e c t

5) t h e g e n e r a l i z e d reduced g r a d i e n t An e f f e c t i v e n o n l i n e a r o p t i m i z a t i o n mode 1 package- - the g e n e r a l i z e d reduced

g r a d i e n t (GRG) method was e x t e n s i v l y used i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e SWT method f o r t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f P a r e t o - o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s and t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d t r a d e - o f f s .

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The MORE ( m u l t i p l e - o b j e c t i v e r e s o u r c e e v a l u a t i o n ) model , deve loped b y t h e Economic Research Serv i ce, U . S . Department o f A g r i c u l t u r e , was used e x t e n s i v e l y for m o d e l i n g t h e d i s t r i b u t e d sou rce p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l , and i t s o u t p u t s were used t o de te rm ine model c o e f f i c i e n t s . The MORE model was m o d i f i e d and ex tended t o i n c l u d e mu1 t i p o l l u t a n t (sed i ment and phosphorus i n o u r case) system o b j e c t i v e s as w e l l as o t h e r r e l a t e d b u t noncommensurable o b j e c t i v e s such as r e c r e a t i o n and t h e p r e s e r v a t i o n o f w i l d l i f e h a b i t a t s .

Question 1%

The Maumee Bay s i m u l a t i o n model was c o n s t a n t l y updated. The f l o o d p l a i n s i m u l a t i o n model was i n a reasonab ly ma tu re s t a t e , r e q u i r i n g l i t t l e m o d i f i c a t i o n . AI 1 t h e ana 1 y t i ca 1 mode 1 s (MORE, SWT, GRG) were w e l l t e s t e d , c a l i b r a t e d , and v e r i f i e d f o r d a t a c o n s i s t e n c y and o p t i m a l i t y of r e s u l t s .

Question 19

Most o f t h e f i n a l p l a n was b a s i c a l l y deve loped by t h e t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t s w o r k i n g w i t h i n t h e l i m i t s s e t by t h e dec i s ion -makers o f t h e Great Lakes B a s i n Commission, and they u t i l i z e d t o a g r e a t e x t e n t t h e p r e f e r e n c e s and o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e C i t i z e n s ’ A d v i s o r y Committee w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e t y p e o f p r o j e c t s needed i n s p e c i f i c a reas w i t h i n t h e b a s i n . However, t h e GLBC d i d change some p o r t i o n s o f t h e p l a n deve loped by t h e t e c h p i c a 1 e x p e r t s b e f o r e g i v i n g t h e i r a p p r o v a l .

Question 20

The Maumee R i v e r B a s i n S tudy was a p l a n n i n g e f f o r t t h a t was t r u l y i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y ; however , an optimum mix o f t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t s was n o t a lways a v a i l a b l e , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y f i e l d .

The Study p o i n t e d o u t t h e i rnpor t a n c e o f some o f t h e p r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r t h e success o f any i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y s t u d y , such as d e v e l o p i n g mu tua l t r u s t among t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s and h e l p i n g each p a r t i c i p a n t t o r e a l i z e t h a t w i t h i n h i s own d i s c i p l i n e he can c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e o v e r a l l s t u d y e f f o r t . A d d i t i o n a l known c o n d i t i o n s f o r p r o j e c t success t h a t were i m p o r t a n t i n c l u d e d t h e m u t u a l development o f c o o p e r a t i v e s p i r i t among p a r t i c i p a n t s , so t h a t t h e n a t u r a l b i a s among t h e d i s c i p l i n e s c o u l d b e overcome and p a r t i c i p a n t s c o u l d come t o t o l e r a t e oppos ing p o i n t s o f v iew , approaches, and b e l i e f s . The t i m e needed f o r t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s t o d e v e l o p and m a t u r e and t h e f a c t t h a t a lmos t e v e r y p a r t i c i p a n t j o i n e d t h e team w i t h h i s own p r e c o n c e i v e d n o t i o n o f what c o n s t i t u t e s a l e v e l - B p l a n n i n g s t u d y may e x p l a i n t h e t i m e s p e n t d u r i n g t h e f i r s t phases i n p h i l o s o p h i c a l and sometimes t r i v i a l d i scuss i ons . I t i s h e r e t h a t w e l l - d e v e l o p e d and a c c e p t a b l e g u i d e l i n e s f o r r e g i o n a l or r i v e r - b a s i n p l a n n i n g wou ld have t h e most impact on s t r e a m l i n i n g t h e s e c o s t l y , t ime-consuming deba tes . Such g u i d e l i , n e s c o u l d i n t h e f u t u r e p r o v i d e a genera l framework and p l a t f o r m f o r an a c c e p t a b l e s t a r t i n g p o i n t i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess .

5. Planning Stage 4: Development of Final Project Specifications

Question 2 1

G e n e r a l l y speak ing , l i n e a r and non1 i near programmi ng t e c h n i q u e s were used t o dea l w i t h t h e a n a l y t i c a l models and s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s were used i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n models (see Q u e s t i o n 1 7 ) . The most t h e o r e t i c a l l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d ( though q u i t e s t r a i g h f o r w a r d )

methodo logy used i n a n a l y z i n g t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n m u l t i o b j e c t i v e p rob lem was t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f (SWT) method.

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The b a s i n ' s p l a n n i n g o b j e c t i v e s were m a t h e m a t i c a l l y f o r m u l a t e d w i t h i n t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n f ramework . The submodels f o r l a n d management and wa te r q u a l i t y r e p r e s e n t i n g one o r more o f t h e o b j e c t i v e s were deve loped and were t h e n i n t e g r a t e d t o f o r m t h e o v e r a l l m u l t i o b j e c t i v e p l a n n i n g model. Most o f t hese mode 1 s i n t e g r a t e d i n t o t h e mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i on framework were deve loped a t CWRU d u r i n g t h e r e s e a r c h p e r i o d . The s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f methods and i t s e x t e n s i o n s a r e d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l i n t h e f o l l o w i n g a r t i c l e s and books :

Y . Y . Haimes and W . A . H a l l , "Mu1 t i - o b j e c t i v e s i n Water Resources Systems A n a l y s i s : The S u r r o g a t e Worth T r a d e - o f f Method," Water Resources Research, V o l . 10, No. 4, Aug. 1974

Y . Y . Haimes, W . A . H a l l , and H .T. Mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e O p t i m i z a t i o n i n Water Resources Sys tems : The S u r r o g a t e Worth T r a d e - o f f Method, E 1 sev i e r , Amsterdam, 1975.

F r eedman ,

Y . Y . Haimes, H i e r a r c h i c a l Ana lyses o f Water Resources Systems: M o d e l i n g and O p t i m i z a t i o n o f L a r g e - s c a l e Systems, McGraw-Hi l l , New York , 1977.

Y . Y . Haimes, "The S u r r o g a t e Worth T r a d e - o f f (SWT) Method and I t s Ex tens ions , " i n M u l t i p l e C r i t e r i a D e c i s i o n Making: Theory and A p p l i c a t i o n s , G . Fandel and T. Ga l , E d i t o r s , S p r i n g e r - V e r l a g , New York, 1980, pp. 85-108

V. Chankong and Y . Y . Haimes, Mu1 i o b j e c t i v e D e c i s i o n Making: Theory and and Methodo logy , E l s e v i e r - N o r t h H o l l a n d , New York, 1983 ( i n p ress )

H i e r a r c h i c a l - m u l t i o b j e c t i v e m o d e l i n g i s a n a t u r a l approach t h a t i s r e s p o n s i v e t o t h e l a r g e s c a l e and c o m p l e x i t y o f such systems as t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n . T h i s approach i s e s s e n t i a l f o r h a n d l i n g t h e p l a n n i n g o f l a r g e - s c a l e water

resources and env i ronmen ta l systems, because i t takes i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h e m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s and g o a l s o f t h e system as w e l l as most o f t h e sys tem 's i n t e r a c t i o n s . H i e r a r c h i c a l m u l t i o b j e c t i v e ana lyses p r o v i d e a p o t e n t approach fo r ana l yz i ng l a r g e - s c a l e systems i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g process .

A d i s c u s s i o n of mode 1 o p t i m a l i t y can be found under Q u e s t i o n 2 6 .

The CWRU r e s e a r c h team wou ld recommend t h e use o f t h e SWT approach i n any s i m i l a r s t u d y because o f t h e f o l l o w i n g s p e c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e method:

1 . The SWT method p r o p e r l y l eaves t o s p e c i a l i z e d a n a l y s i s t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e - p r e d i c t i v e ( s c i e n t i f i c ) aspec ts of an e v a l u a t i o n but c l e a r l y g i v e s t h e dec is ion-maker t h e r i g h t and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o e v a l u a t e t h e m e r i t s o f i m p r o v i n g any one o b j e c t i v e a t t h e expense o f any o t h e r , g i v e n t h e a s s o c i a t e d q u a n t i t a t i v e l e v e l s o f achievement o f a l l o b j e c t i v e s .

2 . U s i n g t h e SWT method, t h e dec i s ion -maker i n t e r a c t s w i t h t h e systems a n a l y s t and t h e mathemat ica l model a t a genera l and v e r y moderate l e v e l . The d e c i s i o n - m a k e r ' s p r e f e r e n c e s f o r a n o n i n f e r i o r s o l u t i o n a r e c o n s t r u c t e d th rough t h e t r a d e - o f f f u n c t i o n s i n t h e o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n space, wh ich i s f a m i l i a r and mean i ngf u 1 t o most dec i s ion -makers . On ly then a r e t h e y t r a n s f e r r e d t o t h e d e c i s i o n space.

3 . S i n c e t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f o p t i m a l p r e f e r e n c e s wh ich l ead t o a s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e best-compromise s o l u t i o n ( a l s o c a l l e d t h e p r e f e r r e d s o l u t i o n ) i s d i r e c t w i t h t h e dec i s ion -maker , t h e SWT method i s v e r y w e l l s u i t e d t o t h e a n a l y s i s and o p t i m i z a t i on mu1 t i o b j e c t i ve f u n c t i o n s hav i ng mu1 t i p l e dec i s ion -makers .

o f

4.The SWT method p r o v i d e s f o r a

o b j ec t i ve q u a n t i t a t i v e ana 1 ys i s o f noncommensurable

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5. When t h e number o f o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s i s t h r e e o r more, t h i s method has an a p p r e c i a b l e c o m p u t a t i o n a l advantage ove r o t h e r e x i s t i n g methods (Cohon and Harks

1975 1 *

Question 22

Where s u f f i c i e n t d a t a were a v a i l a b l e , monetary b e n e f i t s and c o s t s were computed. The c o s t e d e lements o f t h e p l a n s i n c l u d e b o t h f a c i l i t i e s and programs o f a governmental o r g roup t y p e , and those i n d i v i d u a l programs t h a t a r e n o r m a l l y f u l l y o r p a r t i a l l y f i n a n c e d from p u b l i c f unds . C a p i t a l c o s t s were c a l c u l a t e d f o r b o t h i n s t a l l a t i o n and t e c h n i ca 1 a s s i s t a n c e expenses, and t h e y i n c l u d e l a b o r , m a t e r i a l s , equipment, r i g h t s - o f - w a y , wa te r r i g h t s , e n g i n e e r i n g , and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . Other c a p i t a l c o s t c a t e g o r i e s i n c l u d e a g r i c u l t u r a l e r o s i o n - c o n t r o l imp lemen ta t i on , t e c h n i c a l s t u d i e s , and a c q u i s i t i o n and development o f r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s .

The c a p i t a l p r o j e c t s were c o n v e r t e d t o annual c o s t s u s i n g a 50-year l i f e a t t h e t h e n - c u r r e n t f e d e r a l d i s c o u n t r a t e o f 6 318 p e r c e n t . Excep t ions t o t h i s were muni c i pa 1 waste-water and s to rm-water t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s , wh ich were c o s t e d f o r a 20-year 1 i f e .

Opera t i ons , maintenance, and rep lacement (OMSR) c o s t s r e f e r t o t h e annual c o s t f o r upkeep and management o f i n - p l a c e c a p i t a l i tems. Annual c o s t s a r e a l s o c a l c u l a t e d f o r p r o j e c t s n o t r e q u i r i n g a f i r s t - t i m e c a p i t a l expense. They i n c l u d e average annual c o s t s , such as those f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f l a n d resources , and t a x l o s s r e s u l t i n g f rom ou tdoor r e c r e a t i o n development. These c o s t s have been averaged f o r t h e f i f t e e n - y e a r p e r i o d . For example, t h e o p e r a t i o n , maintenance, and rep lacement c o s t s i n the p l a n a r e t h e average monetary o u t l a y s d u r i n g t h e f i f t e e n years r a t h e r t h a n f o r t h e development i n p l a c e i n t h e year 1990.

B e n e f i t s o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s were deve loped i n accordance

S t anda r ds w i t h P r i n c i p l e s and g u i d e l i n e s . Where s u f f i c i e n t d a t a were a v a i l a b l e , t h e s e b e n e f i t s were q u a n t i f i e d . T h i s i n c l u d e d such i t ems as d o l l a r s of annua l f l o o d damages p r e v e n t e d ; d o l l a r v a l u e o f t h e h u n t i n g , f i s h i n g and r e c r e a t i o n days p r o v i d e d by t h e p l a n ; and

r e s i d e n t s o f t h e b a s i n as a r e s u l t o f i n c r e a s e d employment a t t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n p r o j e c t s suggested by t h e p l a n .

i n c r e a s e d income a c c r u i n g t o

Question 23

An impact a n a l y s i s , c a l l e d an e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact a n a l y s i s , was made i n a p r e l i m i n a r y o r g e n e r a l i z e d f a s h i o n . No r i s k a n a l y s i s was under taken , e x c e p t t h a t wh ich m i g h t be assumed f o r f l o o d c o n t r o l p r o j e c t s where p r o t e c t i o n from f l o o d i n g f o r d i f f e r e n t f r e q u e n c i e s was i n d i c a t e d . R isk a n a l y s i s m i g h t have been d e s i r a b l e f o r a g r e a t e r p o r t i o n o f t h e measures proposed i n t h e p l a n had adequate i n f o r m a t i o n been a v a i l a b l e upon wh ich t o base such an a n a l y s i s . An env i ronmen ta l impact s t a t e m e n t was r e q u i r e d by f e d e r a l law and p r o v i d e d a b a s i s f o r judgment o f t h e e f f i c a c y o f t h e s e v e r a l e lements o f t h e p l a n .

Question 24

The P l a n n i n g Board members were t h e p r i n c i p a l dec i s ion -makers i n v o l v e d i n t h e s e l e c t i o n o f p r e f e r r e d p l a n s . They u t i l i z e d a l l i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e t o them, i n c l u d i n g i n p u t f rom t h e CWRU r e s e a r c h team c o n c e r n i n g t h e P a r e t o optimum o f t h e m u l t i o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i o n p rob lem and t h e C i t i z e n s ' A d v i s o r y Committee w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e i r recommendations and t h e u l t i m a t e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e N a t i o n a l Economic Development (NED) and Env i ronrnenta 1 Qua 1 i t y (EQ) p o r t i o n s o f t h e p l a n . The Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission e n t e r e d i n t o t h e s e l e c t i o n o f e lements o f t h e f i n a l p l a n by s e l e c t i n g t h e p o r t i o n s o f t h e N E D and EQ e lemen ts t o be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e f i n a l recommended.plan.

- 1 2 6 -

I n t h e mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i o n scheme ( t h e SWT method), , t h e t r a d e - o f f v a l u e between t h e it a n d j t h o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s , xij, p r o v i d e d a b r o a d base o f

i n f o r m a t i o n , a l l o f w h i c h was needed i n t h e p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p rocess . I t has been shown t h a t

afi a f

j

= - - ' i j

These t r a d e - o f f v a l u e s were genera ted s i m u l t a n e o u s l y w i t h t h e Pare to-op t imum s o l u t i o n s . I t i s q u i t e i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t t h e t r a d e - o f f v a 1 ues and t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g Pare to-op t imum s o l u t i o n s can be r e a d i l y u t i l i z e d i n t h e dec i s ion -mak ing p r o c e s s even w i t h o u t g e n e r a t i n g t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h f u n c t i o n s t h a t t h e SWT method c a l l s f o r . I n o t h e r words, w h i l e t h e SWT method i n i t s e l f i s composed of s e v e r a l c o n s e c u t i v e phases, i t i s n o t mandatory t o a c t i v a t e a l l phases t o use t h e method. T h i s f a c t i s o f paramount impor tance f o r a n a l y s t s and u s e r s who m i g h t n o t n e c e s a r i l y a p p r e c i a t e t h e way t h e SWT method c a l l s f o r i n t e r a c t i o n between a n a l y s t s and dec i s ion -makers , and/or t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h f u n c t i o n s .

A l l s t u d e n t s o f economics (and most, i f n o t a l l w a t e r resources p l a n n e r s b e l o n g i n t h i s ca tegory ) a r e f a m i l i a r w i t h and use t h e concep t o f m a r g i n a l b e n e f i t and c o s t i n t h e i r a n a l y s i s . The t r a d e - o f f v a l u e s e s s e n t i a l l y r e p r e s e n t t h e m a r g i n a l v a l u e concep t w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n t h a t t h e numera to r m i g h t n o t n e c e s s a r i l y be g i v e n i n monetary u n i t s . I n o t h e r words, w h i l e t h e " c l a s s i c a l " m a r g i n a l b e n e f i t m i g h t be g i v e n i n te rms o f d o l l a r s per t o n o f sed iment , t h e t r a d e - o f f v a l u e m i g h t be g i v e n i n te rms o f bushe ls o f c r o p p e r t o n o f sed iment .

The e x p e r i e n c e w i t h t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n P l a n n i n g Board shows t h a t w h i l e t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e t r a d e - o f f v a l u e s i n te rms o f u n i t s o f t h e i t h o b j e c t i v e p e r u n i t s o f t h e jth o b j e c t i v e i s p o s s i b l e and a n a l y t i c a l l y e l e g a n t , t h e s e v a l u e s a r e n o t u s e f u l t o t h e p l a n n e r s

u n l e s s t h e y a r e g i v e n i n terms o f d o l l a r s per u n i t o f t h e j t h o b j e c t i v e . That i s t o say , i n a p p l y i n g t h e SWT method, i t i s p r e f e r a b l e t o have t h e p r i m a r y o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n be t h e c o s t (or b e n e f i t ) f u n c t i o n , g i v e n i n monetary u n i t s , w h i l e a l l o t h e r o b j e c t i v e s i n t h e € - c o n s t r a i n t f o r m u l a t i o n a r e i n t h e i r own u n i t s . Two o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e i n o r d e r a t t h i s t ime .

i ) The p r e f e r e n c e o f t h e P l a n n i n g Board f o r monetary u n i t s i s n o t unexpected s i n c e peop le do u s u a l l y make d e c i s i o n s on t r a d e - o f f s u s i n g t h e d o l l a r as a b a s i s . I t i s much e a s i e r f o r a P l a n n i n g Board member t o r e l a t e h i s a t t i t u d e toward an a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n when t h e t r a d e - o f f v a l u e i s g i v e n i n $ / ton -sed imen t r a t h e r than b u s h e l s o f co rn / ton -sed imen t o r v i s i t o r - d a y / b u s h e l o f c o r n .

i i ) The above r e f e r e n c e i n a t r a d e - o f f p r e s e n t a t i o n does n o t impose any h a r d s h i p on t h e SWT method. I t i s a lways p o s s i b l e t o s e l e c t t h e monetary o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i on i n a m u l t i o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i o n prob lem as t h e p r i m a r y o b j e c t i v e i n t h e E - c o n s t r a i n t f o r m u l a t i o n . I f such does n o t e x i s t , t h e n one s h o u l d s e l e c t as t h e p r i m a r y o b j e c t i v e , t h a t o b j e c t i v e wh ich can se rve as a common denominator f o r a t r a d i n g base. Fur thermore , i t i s always p o s s i b l e t o genera te a1 1 p o s s i b l e t r a d e - o f f s between any two o b j e c t i v e s once t h e s e t \2.-. Aln i s genera ted .Th iscan be done, as was ment ioned, by u s i n g t h e f o r m u l a

The a v a i l a b i 1 i t y t o t h e p l a n n e r s o f t h e t r a d e - o f f v a l u e s a t c o r r e s p o n d i n g l e v e l s o f achievement o f v a r i o u s o b j e c t i v e s can se rve s e v e r a l v e r y i m p o r t a n t purposes i n t h e p l a n n i n g and dec i s ion -mak ing p rocess . Among t h e s e a re :

i ) The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s assoc i a t e d w i t h each p l a n n i n g

-127-

subarea (PSA) - - h y d r o l o g i c , geograph ic -morpho log ic , l a n d and s o i 1 t ypes , econom i c , soc io -economic , and o t h e r s . T h i s t y p e o f i n f o r m a t i o n shou ld a s s i s t t h e p l a n n e r i n max im iz ing t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f resources on a bas i nwide bas i s w i t h i n t h e u n a v o i d a b l e c o n s t r a i n t s and thus enhance t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f a c h i e v i n g t h e p l a n n i n g o b j e c t i v e s and g o a l s .

i i ) The s e n s i t i v i t y i n t h e changes o f t h e t r a d e - o f f v a l u e s among t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s a r e va 1 uab 1 e i n f o r m a t i on t o t h e p l a n n e r s .

I n summary, w h i l e t h e t r a d e - o f f v a l u e s a r e e s s e n t i a l i n t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h f u n c t i o n s v i a i n t e r a c t i o n between a n a l y s t and dec i s ion -makers and t h e u l t i m a t e g e n e r a t i o n o f a s e l e c t e d , p r e f e r r e d , and a c c e p t a b l e p l a n u s i n g t h e SWT method i n i t s e n t i r e t y , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o u t i l i z e t h e t r a d e - o f f v a l u e s and t o deduce many s e p a r a t e c o n c l u s i o n s t h a t can be v e r y v a l u a b l e t o t h e p l a n n e r s and dec i s ion -makers .

I n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h - t r a d e o f f method i n t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Study, t h e me thod ' s f i n a l phase, namely, t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h f u n c t i o n s , was implemented. The i n t e n t o f these f u n c t i o n s i s t o e s s e n t i a l l y a s s i s t i n r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e dec i s ion -makers ' p r e f e r e n c e s i n t h e s e l e c t i o n of t h e f i n a l recommended p l a n .

I n t h i s s t u d y , t h e r e was a c o n t i n u o u s a n d . c l o s e i n t e r a c t i o n between t h e a n a l y s t s and t h e dec i s ion -makers a t v a r i o u s l e v e l s o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g h i e r a r c h y . Each o f t h e s e l e v e l s had i t s own i n f l u e n c e and impact on t h e s t u d y outcome. Very . o f t e n , t h e a n a l y s t s were t h e dec i s ion -makers themse lves . The h i e r a r c h y o f dec i s ion -makers c o n s i s t e d o f t h e P l a n n i n g Board members and t h e i r c l o s e a s s o c i a t e s , who i n t u r n c e n t r a l i z e d t h e d a t a and p r o v i d e d t h e needed t e c h n i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n t o t h e P l a n n i n g Board members. I n add i t ion , t h i s

h i e r a r c h y i nc 1 uded t h e Study Manager, h i s s t a f f , and h i s a s s o c i a t e s a t t h e e x e c u t i v e l e v e l o f t h e Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission, t h e G r e a t Lakes B a s i n Commission i - t s e l f , t h e C i t i z e n s ' A d v i s o r y Committee, t h e Study Committee, t h e S t e e r i n g Committee, t h e Water Resources C o u n c i l , t h e p u b l i c t h r o u g h v a r i o u s h e a r i n g s , and o t h e r agenc ies who were n o t r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e above groups o f t h e dec i s ion -makers b u t who have i n f l u e n c e i n t h e r e g i o n .

I n summary, o f a l l l e v e l s o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g h i e r a r c h y i n t h e Maumee Leve l -B Study, t h e P l a n n i n g Board and t h e Study Manager had t h e most impact on t h e s t u d y outcome. Consequent ly , i n g e n e r a t i n g t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f f u n c t i o n s , namely, t h e p r e f e r e n c e s o f t h e dec i s ion -makers over t h e v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e P a r e t o o p t i m a l p l a n s , o n l y t h e P l a n n i n g Board ( t h e S tudy Manager i s t h e cha i rman o f t h e Board) was reques ted t o s t a t e i t s p r e f e r e n c e s . T h i s was done b y s o l i c i t i n g t h e p r e f e r e n c e s o f each P 1 ann i ng Board member. The r e s u l t i n g i n d i f f e r e n c e bands o f each P l a n n i n g Board member d i d n o t a lways o v e r l a p , as wou ld be expec ted . I n compar ing t h e f i n a l recommended p l a n and t h e d i s p l a y e d p r e f e r e n c e s o f t h e Board members, however, i t becomes e v i d e n t t h a t t h i s p l a n c o i n c i d e s w i t h t h e p r e f e r e n c e s o f t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e P l a n n i n g Board members.

I t i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t a t t h i s t i m e t o a c c u r a t e l y assess t h e impact t h a t t h e g e n e r a t i o n of t h e p r e f e r e n c e s ( v i a t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h f u n c t i o n s ) had on t h e p l a n w h i c h was recommended f o r f i n a l s e l e c t i o n . I t i s much e a s i e r , however, t o a s s e r t t h a t t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e t r a d e - o f f v a l u e s among t h e v a r i o u s o b j e c t i v e s and t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g P a r e t o - o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s were e x t r e m e l y v a l u a b l e i n h e l p i n g t h e dec i s ion -makers unders tand and a n a l y z e t h e v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s and u t l i m a t e l y h e l p e d g e n e r a t e a recommended p l a n t h a t i s more r e s p o n s i v e t o t h e b a s i n ' s needs. A ma jo r gap between t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s and t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f

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t h e r e s u l t i n g p l a n s was d i s c o v e r e d as a consequence o f t h e g e n e r a t i o n and d i s p l a y o f t h e t r a d e - o f f v a l u e s as t h e y r e l a t e d t o t h e v a r i o u s p l a n n i n g subareas .

Question 25.

A h i e r a r c h i c a l m u l t i o b j e c t i v e m o d e l i n g and o p t i m i z a t i o n s t r u c t u r e was deve loped f o r h a n d l i n g comprehensive p l a n n i n g i n t h e Maumee R i v e r Bas in . Two major components o f noncommensuration were i d e n t i f i e d i n mode l i ng t h e p rob lem: one r e l a t e s t o economic o b j e c t i v e s and t h e o t h e r t o env i ronmen ta l q u a l i t y as a f f e c t e d by p o i n t and n o n p o i n t sou rce p o l l u t a n t s , r e c r e a t i o n , w i l d l i f e , e t c .

A computer program was worked o u t whch i s capab le o f g e n e r a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s and p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t i e s and t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d t r a d e - o f f s u s i n g t h e s u r r o g a t e w o r t h t r a d e - o f f method. The a n a l y s i s was c a r r i e d out w i t h r e s p e c t t o each o f t h e f i v e p l a n n i n g subareas t h a t a r e based on s t a t e and coun ty b o u n d a r i e s i n t h e b a s i n . The l e v e l o f o b j e c t i v e s and a p p r o p r i a t e t r a d e - o f f s among t h e v a r i o u s o b j e c t i v e s were de te rm ined f o r a range o f f e a s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s : env i ronmen ta l q u a l i t y ( E Q ) , minimum E Q , economic development (ED), minimum E D , and a recommended p l a n . As i n f e r r e d b y name, minimum E Q p l a c e s somewhat l e s s emphasis on env i ronmen ta l q u a l i t y i n compar ison w i t h t h e env i ronmen ta l q u a l i t y (EQ) p l a n , w h i l e minimum E D p l a c e s l e s s emphasis on economic development i n compar i son w i t h t h e econom i c deve 1 opment (ED) p 1 an.

The SWT method m i g h t be v iewed a t t h i s s t a g e o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess as a " s i m u l a t i o n " method.

T h i s d i s t i n c t a t t r i b u t e o f t h e SWT method i s n o t a b l e i n l i g h t o f t h e p r e s e n t p r o l i f e r a t i o n o f mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e me thodo log ies deve loped f o r wa te r r e s o u r c e s p l ann i ng .

Question 26

R e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e f a c t t h a t t h e te rm " o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n ' ' p e r t a i n s t o t h e m o d e l ' s o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n and n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t o t h e r e a l s y s t e m ' s o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n wou ld h e l p reduce some o f t h e m i s g i v i n g s o f t h e p r a c t i o n e r s and a t t h e same t i m e h e l p t h e mode lers and a n a l y s t s d e v e l o p a more sober a t t i t u d e toward t h e ph rase . Fur thermore , t h e m o d e l ' s o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n and t h e v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s and a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s t h a t c o u l d be genera ted v i a t h e mathemat ica l models shou ld be i n v a l uab 1 e t o o l s i n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p rocess i n genera l and i n wa te r resources p l a n n i n g i n p a r t i c u l a r . For t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Leve l -B Study, t h e " o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n " o f t h e r e a l system depended upon t h e v a l u e system o f t h e dec i s ion -makers . The a l t e r n a t i v e s were n o t e v a l u a t e d on a common b a s i s , such as d o l l a r s t o be compared d i r e c t l y a g a i n s t c o s t , b u t u t i l i z e d o u t p u t , such as ac res p reven ted from f l o o d i n g , v i s i t o r days , e t c . Consequent ly , t h e SWT method p r o v i d e d as good an e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i v e m e r i t s o f t h e m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s as was a v a i l a b l e . The dec is ion-makers were a t f i r s t r e l u c t a n t t o accept t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e SWT method b u t , l a c k i n g a more d e f i n i t i v e method o f t h e i r own and b e i n g r e q u i r e d b y t h e SWT p r a c t i t i o n e r s t o s t a t e t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s more s u c c i n c t l y , t hey d e r i v e d a b e n e f i t f r om t h e SWT method i n dec i d i ng wh ich a l t e r n a t i v e s t o recommend.

Question 27

The P l a n n i n g Board made i t s recommendations t o t h e Bas i n Commission and f u r n i s h e d t h e comments o f t h e C i t i z e n s ' A d v i s o r y Committee on t h e seve ra a l t e r n a t i v e s . The Bas h e l d a s e r i e s o f p u b l i c o b t a i n t h e v iews o f p u b l i c i n a d d i t i o n t o C i t i z e n s ' A d v i s o r y Comm and l a r g e , a t t e n d e d t h e

recommended n Commission meet ings t o t h e genera l those o f t h e t t e e who, by mee t ings i n

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t h e i r own a reas t o make t h e f i n a l recommendations f o r t r a n s m i t t a l t o t h e i r gove rno rs and t h e Water Resources C o u n c i l .

Question 28

T h i s q u e s t i o n i m p l i e s f u n d i n g f o r t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e f i n a l p l a n . The f i n a l p l a n was n o t implemented n o r was i t f i n a n c e d f o r imp lemen ta t i on . However, as r e c e n t l y as 1982, t h e s t a t e o f Ohio I S c o n t i n u i n g t o e v a l u a t e recommendations f o r water resources p r o j e c t s i n t h e b a s i n i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e i n f o r m a t i o n p resen ted i n t h e p l a n t o a s s i s t i n t h e j udgmen ta l p rocesses f o r a p p r o v a l o f p l a n s . T h e r e f o r e , whi l e no d i r e c t imp lemen ta t i on o f t h e p l a n i s i n v o l v e d , i t i s b e i n g u t i l i z e d as a s t a n d a r d f r o m w h i c h t o gauge o t h e r p l a n s .

Question 29

No s y s t e m a t i c p o s t - p l a n n i n g e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e o v e r a l l p l a n has been comple ted t o the knowledge o f t h e fo rmer B a s i n Commission s t a f f . Some p o s t - p l a n n i n g e v a l u a t i o n has been under taken i n each o f t h e

References

Chankong, V . , and Y . Y . Ha i mes , M u l t i o b j e c t i v e D e c i s i o n Making: Theory and Methodo 1 ogy , E l s e v i e r - N o r t h H o l l a n d , New York, 1983 ( i n p ress

C i t i t e n s ' A d v i s o r y Committee, " T e n t a t i v e Goa ls and O b j e c t i v e s : Maumee R i v e r Bas i ns Leve 1 -B Study," MRB Ser . 2, Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission, Ann Arbo r , Mich, 1974 .

Das, P . , "H i e r a r c h i c a 1 -mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e approach i n t h e p l a n n i n g and management o f wa te r and r e l a t e d 1 and r e s o u r c e s , I ' Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Case Western Reserve U n i v e r s i t y , C leve land , Ohio, 1976.

s t a t e s i n c o n s i d e r i n g work t o b e endorsed. The recommendations w i t h r e g a r d t o t ypes o f a g r i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s t o be u n d e r t a k e n a r e b e i n g i n t r o d u c e d t o an i n c r e a s i n g d e g r e e t h r o u g h o u t t h e b a s i n .

6. Planning Stage 5: Project Design

Question 30

Q u e s t i o n 30 does n o t a p p l y t o t h e s t a t e o f p l a n n i n g o r t h e l e v e l o f p l a n n i n g f o r t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n S tudy .

Acknowledgements

P a r t i a l s u p p o r t f o r t h i s s t u d y was p r o v i d e d b y t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e Founda t ion , Gran t No. ENG79-03605, under t h e p r o j e c t t i t l e s , "The I n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e H i e r a r c h i c a l and Mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e Approaches," and t h e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s Department o f Energy, C o n t r a c t No. DEACO-180RA50256, under t h e p r o j e c t t i t l e , " I n d u s t r y F u n c t i o n a l Mode l i ng . " S p e c i a l thanks a r e due t o J u l i a Pet-Edwards f o r her a s s i s t a n c e i n t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h i s document.

Grea t Lakes B a s i n Cornmission, " A F i r s t - C u t

P l a n n i n g , Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Leve l -B Study , " MRB Ser. 4, Ann Arbo r , M ich . , 1974.

P r e s e n t a t i o n o f

Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission,"Maumee R i v e r B a s i n Study," 113 pp., Ann Arbo r , M ich . , May 1977.

Grea t Lakes B a s i n Commission, "Maumee R i v e r Bas i n S tudy , I ' R e p o r t - - Env i ronmen ta l Impact S ta temen t , May 1977.

Haimes,Y.Y. and W . A . Hal 1 , "Mu 1 t i o b j e c t i v e s i n Water Resources Systems A n a l y s i s : The S u r r o g a t e Worth T r a d e - o f f Method, I ' Water Resources Research, v o l . 10, No. 4, Aug. 1974.

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Haimes, Y . Y . , W . A . H a l l , and H.T. F r eedman, Mu1 t i o b j e c t i ves O p t i m i z a t i o n i n Water Resources Systems: The S u r r o g a t e Worth T r a d e - o f f Method, E 1 sev i e r , Amsterdam, 1975.

Haimes, Y . Y . , H i e r a r c h i c a l Ana lyses o f Water Resources Systems: M o d e l i n g and O p t i m i z a t i o n o f L a r g e - s c a l e Sys tems, McGraw-Hi l l , New York , 1977.

Haimes, Y . Y . , P . Das, K . Sung, and J . C r a i g , "Mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e A n a l y s i s i n t h e Maumee R i v e r Bas in : A Case Study on Leve l -B P 1 ann i ng, I ' Sys tems Eng i neer i ng Department, Case Western Reserve U n i v e r s i t y , January 1977.

Haimes, Y . Y . , P . Das, and K . Sung, "Mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e A n a l y s i s i n t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n : A Case Study on Leve l -B P l a n n i n g , " Case Western Reserve U n i v e r s i t y , C leve land , Ohio, 1977.

Haimes, Y . Y . , P . Das, and K . Sung, "Mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e Ana 1 ys i s i n t h e Maumee R i v e r B a s i n : A Case Study , " Case Western Reserve U n i v e r s i t y , C leve land , Ohio, .1979.

Haimes, Y . Y . ( e d i t o r ) , S c i e n t i f i c , T e c h n o l o g i c a l , and I n s t i t u t i o n a l Aspects o f Water Resources P o l i c y , Westview Press , B o u l d e r , C O ~ O . , 1980.

Haimes, Y . Y . , "The S u r r o g a t e Worth T r a d e - o f f (SWT) Method and I t s Ex tens ions , " i n Mu1 t i p l e C r i t e r i a D e c i s i o n Mak i ng: Theory and A p p l i c a t i o n s , G . Fandel and T. Ga l , e d i t o r s , S p r i n g e r - V e r l a g , New York , 1980, pp. 85-108.

Putman, J.W., " M u l t i p l e O b j e c t i v e Resource E v a l u a t i o n System (MORE) , I ' N o r t h C e n t r a l Resource Program Group, Economic Research Serv i ce , U . S . Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , Eas t Lans i ng, Mich., 1975.

S o i l Conserva t i on S e r v i c e , " E r o s i o n and S e d i m e n t a t i o n T e c h n i c a l Paper , I ' submi t t e d t o t h e Grea t Lakes B a s i n Comm., E . Lans ing , Mich., 1974.

Sung , K . , "Mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e O p t i m i z a t i o n and H i e r a r c h i c a l O v e r l a p p i n g C o o r d i n a t i o n i n Water Resources System,' ' Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Case Western Reserve U n i v e r s i t y , C leve land , Ohio, 1978.

U . S . Congress, "Federa l Water P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l Ac t , " P u b l i c Law 92-500, 1972.

Water Resources C o u n c i l , P r i n c i p l e s and Standards f o r P l a n n i n g Water and R e l a t e d Land Resources, Fed. R e g i s t . , 38 (174) , p a r t I l l , 24, 77-24,869, Sept. 10, 1973.

Water Resources C o u n c i l , 1972, OBERS P r o j e c t i o n s : Economic A c t i v i t y i n t h e U.S. by Economic Area, Water Resources Region and Subarea, S t a t e s , and SMSA and Non-SMSA P o r t i o n s o f t h e Areas, H i s t o r i ca 1 and P r o j e c t e d 1929-2020, r e p o r t , Washington, D . C . , 1974.

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THE PLANNING PROCESS IN THE METROPOLITAN ADELAIDE WATER RESOURCES STUDY OF JUNE 1978

David T. Howell Department of Water Engineering School of Civil Engineering The University of New South Wales Kensington, New South Wales Australia

Introduction

A d e l a i d e i s t h e c a p i t a l c i t y and t h e l a r g e s t c i t y o f t h e s t a t e of South A u s t r a l i a , wh ich i s t h e d r i e s t s t a t e o f t h e c o u n t r y wh ich occup ies t h e wor I d ' s d r i e s t c o n t i n e n t (see F i gure) . Metropo i t a n A d e l a i d e had i n 1982 a p o p u l a t i o n o f a lmos t one m i l l i o n I t draws i t s water f r o m s t o r a g e on nearby streams and, i n c r e a s i n g l y , f rom t h e c o m p a r a t i v e l y l a r g e and r e l i a b l e f l o w o f t h e R i v e r Mur ray . However, water f r o m t h e R i v e r Murray i s more s a l i n e and more t u r b i d t h a n f r o m t h e nearby s t reams.

1. Planning Stage 1: Project Initiation and Preliminary Planning

Question I

The p r o j e c t was i n i t i a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f a l ong - te rm programme. The M e t r o p o l i t a n Ade la ide Water Resources Study , begun i n 1976 and comple ted i n 1978, was an i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o how t o p r o v i d e a wa te r SUPP 1 Y f o r m e t r o p o l i t a n A d e l a i d e over t h e n e x t 30 yea rs .

Question 2

The o n l y agency d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e p r o j e c t was t h e E n g i n e e r i n g and Water Supply Department o f South A u s t r a l i a . I t was r e s p o n s i b l e a t t h e t i m e of t h e s tudy t o t h e M i n i s t e r o f Works and i s now r e s p o n s i b l e t o t h e M i n i s t e r o f Water Resources (o f t h e Government o f South A u s t r a l i a ) f o r r u r a l and u rban water s u p p l i e s ,

amongst o t h e r t h i n g s , t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t a t e . I t s D i r e c t o r - G e n e r a l and E n g i n e e r - i n - C h i e f i s c u r r e n t l y t h e Cha i rman o f t h e South A u s t r a l i a n Water Resources C o u n c i l , on w h i c h a number o f b o d i e s concerned w i t h w a t e r a r e r e p r e s e n t e d , and wh ich i s concerned w i t h an i n t e g r a t e d approach t o w a t e r r e s o u r c e s management f o r t h e s t a t e . The E n g i n e e r i n g and Water Supp ly Department a l s o i n t e r a c t s w i t h t h e R i v e r Mur ray Commission, a body on wh ich a r e r e p r e s e n t e d t h e governments o f t h e s t a t e s o f South A u s t r a l i a , V i c t o r i a and New South Wa 1 es and t h e Commonwealth Government ( t h e f e d e r a l government o f A u s t r a l i a ) . The R i v e r Mur ray Commission a d m i n i s t e r s t h e R i v e r Mur ray Waters Agreement (an i n t e r - s t a t e compact) w h i c h a l l o c a t e s among t h e s t a t e s w a t e r f r o m t h e R i v e r Mur ray on w h i c h A d e l a i d e depends h e a v i l y .

The s k i l l e d pe rsonne l i n v o l v e d i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess were e n g i n e e r s and an eng ineer -economis t o f t h e E n g i n e e r i n g and Water Supp ly Depar tment . P u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n was n o t e x p l i c i t l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e fo rmu 1 a t i on o f p r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s , b u t r e p o r t s on t h e s t u d y were made a v a i l a b l e f o r p u b l i c s c r u t i n y and comment. The re has been subsequent pub1 i c i nvo 1 vement i n demand management and i n t h e development o f a c o r p o r a t e p l a n f o r t h e Depar tment . (See a l s o t h e answer t o Q u e s t i o n 1 3 ) .

Question 3

The i n v e s t i g a t i o n , w h i c h l e d t o recomendat ions f o r a programme o f works c o n s t r u c t i o n over a p e r i o d o f

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t i m e and f o r p a r t i c u l a r o p e r a t i n g p o l i c i e s , was i n i t i a t e d by a r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e wa te r supp ly had t o be improved, t h a t p u b l i c funds were becoming s c a r c e and were l i k e l y t o rema in s c a r c e f o r many y e a r s , t h a t c o n t i n u i n g s u p p l y t o t h e c i t y o f A d e l a i d e was becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y dependent o f t h e R i v e r Mur ray , and t h a t t h e r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n g rowth o f t h e c i t y had d e c l i n e d s i n c e t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f t h e p r e v i o u s ma jo r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n 1973.

Question 4

The o n l y c o n s t r a i n t s were se l f - imposed . They were t h a t t h e s t u d y s h o u l d be comp le ted i n two yea rs , and t h a t i t s h o u l d d e a l w i t h t h e p rob lem o f p r o v i d i n g A d e l a i d e w i t h wa te r o v e r t h e n e x t 30 y e a r s .

Question 5

The methods employed were deve loped by t h e o f f i c e r s o f t h e Department, most 1 y younger e n g i n e e r s . There were no d i sag reemen ts .

2. Planning Stage 2: Data Collection and Processing

Question 6

D a t a used compr ised:

S t reamf low and r a i n f a l l r e c o r d s f o r t h e A d e l a i d e Reg ion ( t h e a r e a o f l o c a l supp ly ) ;

S t reamf low r e c o r d s f o r t h e R i v e r Murray;

Consumption r e c o r d s f o r w a t e r i n A d e l a i d e f o r d i f f e r e n t consumer c l a s s e s and sub-areas (over t h e a rea o f consumption) ;

E v a p o r a t i o n and r a i n f a l l f o r A d e l a i d e a t d i f f e r e n t l o c a t i o n s r e p r e s e n t i n g d i f f e r e n t sub-areas;

P o p u l a t i o n r e c o r d s i n d i f f e r e n t sub-a r eas (and p o p u l a t i o n

Question 7

E x i s t i n g d a t a were supplemented

s y n t h e t i c a l l y genera ted d a t a . Each 5 e t c o n s i s t e d o f genera ted s t reamf lows a t t e n l o c a t i o n s and genera ted demands a t e i g h t l o c a t i o n s . The demands were d e r i v e d f r o m genera ted r a i n f a l l and r a i n f a l l / c o n s u m p t i o n c o r r e l a t i o n s . Net e v a p o r a t i o n l o s s e s were a l s o genera ted . F o r e c a s t s o f demand over t h e p l a n n i n g p e r i o d were made.

w i t h 50 s e p a r a t e s e t s o f

A l l measurements a r e b e i n g c o n t i n u e d d u r i n g t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n p e r i o d and w i l l be c o n t i n u e d i n d e f i n i t e l y i n t o t h e f u t u r e .

Question 8

Opera t i ons r e s e a r c h techn iques were n o t used t o d e c i d e on the method o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and l e n g t h o f d a t a .

Question 9

A programme was n o t s e t up t o assess t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e d a t a base used.

Question 10

No s p e c i a l methods were used t o ana lyse t h e d a t a

3. Planning Stage 3: Formulation and Screening of Project Alternatives

Question 7 7

The e n t i r e s t u d y ( P l a n n i n g Stages 1 t o 4 i n c l u s i v e ) took a p p r o x i m a t e l y t e n man-years o f p r o f e s s i o n a l e f f o r t w i t h about t h e same amount o f s u b - p r o f e s s i o n a l s u p p o r t . The s t u d y was i n t e r n a l l y funded as p a r t o f t h e o r d i n a r y e x p e n d i t u r e of t h e Department. Use was made o f t h e South A u s t r a l i a n Government 's Au tomat i c D a t a P rocess ing Cen t re wh ich had a C o n t r o l Data Cyber 7 3 .

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Question 12 Question 17

The o n l y s u p p o r t f rom o u s i d e t h e Department was a s s i s t a n c e i n making p o p u l a t i o n f o r e c a s t s by o t h e r s t a t e government deparments.

Question 13

The p u b l i c d i d n o t p a r t i c i p a t e a t a l l i n t h e p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n - making process , because, so f a r , t h e i s s u e s have been s imp le , t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s s i m i l a r i n t h e i r s o c i a l and env i ronmen ta l impacts, and non-one 's s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t s have y e t been s e r i o u s l y t h r e a t e n e d . The Engineer i ng and Water Supp ly Department i s n o t ave rse t o p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n ; i t i n i t i a t e d a pub1 i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n programme i n 1976 i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h R i v e r Murray s a l i n i t y c o n t r o l ( A l l e n and K i l l i c k , 1979).

Question 14

T h i r t e e n d i s t i n c t a l t e r n a t i v e s were i n v e s t i g a t e d , a l 1 i n s u f f i c i e n t d e t a l 1 t o enab le " i n d i c a t i v e " c o s t s t o be e s t i m a t e d . The a l t e r n a t i v e s c o n s i d e r e d were dec ided on by t h e members o f t h e s tudy team as an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f t h e s tudy .

Question 15

The s t a n d a r d p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g p rocedure o f t h e Department was f o l lowed whereby t h e p r o j e c t i s d i scussed c o n t i nua 1 1 y as i t p rog resses w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w i n g upwards t h r o u g h t h e h i e r a r c h y o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o sen i o r management. I n t h i s case t h e v iews f l o w i n g back down t h e h i e r a r c h y were c o n f i r m a t o r y . I n a d d i t i o n , eve ry month b r i e f summaries o f p rog ress were s e n t t o t h e South A u s t r a l i a n Water Resources C o u n c i l and t o t h e M i n i s t e r r e s u 1 t e d i n v e r y d isagreement .

Question I6

No c o n s t r a i n t s were

These 1 i t t l e

rnposed.

M u l t i - d i m e n s i o n a l s i m u l a t i o n w i t h t i m e d i s c r e t i z e d i n t o months and w i t h s y n t h e t i c a l l y genera ted i n p u t s was used i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h two- 1 eve 1 h i e r a r c h i c a l d e c o m p o s i t i o n and d e t e r m i n i s t i c dynamic programming f o r sub-system o p t i m i z a t i o n . The h i e r a r c h i c a ! d e c o m p o s i t i o n was adapted f r o m t h e approach proposed by Haimes and Macko (1973) - The dynamic programming model was deve loped t o s u i t t h e c i r c u m s t a n c e s o f t h e prob lem. The o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n was t o m i n i m i z e pumping c o s t s o v e r t h e 30-year p l a n n i n g p e r i o d s u b j e c t t o sys tem component capac i t y c o n s t r a i n t s and minimum t a r g e t s t o r a g e l e v e l s r e p r e s e n t i n g l e v e l s o f s e c u r i t y o r r i s k .

Question 18

To t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e models d e a l t w i t h volumes o f wa te r and c o s t s o f pumping, c a l i b r a t i o n and v e r i f i c a t i o n were n o t r e q u i r e d . T e s t i n g and m o d i f i c a t i o n were concerned w i t h c o m p u t a t i o n a l e f f i cacy .

Question 19

The e x p e r t s recommended t h e f i r s t s tages o f a f i n a l p l a n - and t h e de fe rmen t o f some d e c i s i o n s u n t i l l a t e r t o t h e M i n i s t e r . The M i n i s t e r and t h e South A u s t r a l i a n Government accep ted t h e recommendations. The p u b l i c was in fo rmed , and t h e r e was no adve rse r e a c t i o n .

Question 20

The p l a n n i n g team was composed m o s t l y o f e n g i n e e r s . The m a j o r i t y were c i v i l e n g i n e e r s , b u t t h e r e was one e l e c t r i c a l eng inee r w i t h a s p e c i a l i s a t i o n i n o p e r a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h . One o f t h e c i v i l e n g i n e e r s was a l s o an economis t . Other d i s c i p l i n e s were i n v o l v e d i n p o p u l a t i o n f o r e c a s t i n g . To t h i s e x t e n t t h e s t u d y was i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y , w i t h t h e m i x seeming t o be a p p r o p r i a t e .

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4. Planning Stage 4: Development of Final Project Specifications

Question 21

I n t h i s s t u d y , P l a n n i n g Stages 3 and 4 were n o t d i s t i n c t , and t h e answer t o Q u e s t i o n 17 above p a r t l y answers Q u e s t i on 2 1 .

The f o l l o w i n g paper and books were h e l p f u l :

Haimes, Y . Y . , and Macko, D . , " H i e r a r c h i c a l S t r u c t u r e s i n Water Resources Systems Management,'' I E E E T r a n s a c t i o n s on Systems, Man, and C y b e r n e t i c s , .. J u l y , 1973, pp. 396-402.

Mesarov i c , M.D., Macko, D. , and Takarrara, Y . , Theory o f H i e r a r c h i c a l M u l t i l e v e l Systems, Academic P ress , New York, 1970.

Be l lman, R . E . , and D r e y f u s , S . E . , A p p l i e d Dynamic Programming, P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y Press , 1962.

There were some s m a l l s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e p rob lem t o g i v e a s i m p l e r model. For i n s t a n c e , a c o u p l e o f r e s e r v o i r s were lumped and a pumping s t a t i o n was o m i t t e d . A l s o t h e d i v i s i o n i n t o subsystems i n v o l v e d some s i m p l i f i c a t i o n . The model was n o t " o p t i m i z e d " . The a l t e r n a t i v e s a v a i l a b l e d i d n o t seem t o be many; t h e c h o i c e came down t o b r u t e f o r c e s i m u l a t i o n or dynamic programming w i t h decompos i t i on , and t h e l a t t e r was chosen on grounds o f economy i n comput ing . The approach wou 1 d be used aga in . The development o f t h e model t o o k many months.

Question 22

A c o s t b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s as such was n o t under taken ; r a t h e r , a c o s t r i s k a n a l y s i s was made. I t seemed more a p p r o p r i a t e t o t h e c i r cum- and wou ld be used a g a i n .

Question 23

A r i s k a n a l a y s i s (See Q u e s t i o n 2 2 above) was made a t t h e

s u g g e s t i o n o f t h e Department t o t h e dec i s ion -maker , i . e . , t h e M i n i s t e r , who approved. What was l e a r n e d f rom i t were t h e c o n c l u s i o n s made i n t h e r e p o r t o n t h e s t u d y and t h e recommendations f o l l o w i n g f rom them. T h a t i s t o say t h a t t h e c o s t r i s k a n a l y s i s l a y a t t h e h e a r t o f t h e method used t o draw c o n c l u s i o n s .

Other impacts were n o t c o n s i d e r e d i n any d e t a i l .

Question 24

I t so happened. t h a t i t was p o s s i b l e t o make immediate d e c i s i o n s w i t h o u t h a v i n g t o c o n s i d e r t h e t r a d e - o f f between c o s t and r i s k o r any o t h e r t r a d e - o f f . The immediate dec i s i on , i n v o l v i n g t h e c o n f i g u r a t i o n w i t h i n t h e supp ly ne twork o f water t r e a t m e n t p l a n t s and t h e i r c a p a c i t i e s t o be c o n s t r u c t e d w i t h i n t h e n e x t few yea rs , was made on a s i m p l e c o s t m i n i m i z i n g b a s i s .

However, t h e s t u d y h i g h l i g h t e d t h e ma jo r t r a d e - o f f i ssues for f u t u r e dec i s ion -mak ing .

A m u l t i - o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i o n methodo logy was n o t used; env i ronmen ta l i ssues d i d n o t a r i s e because a l t e r n a t i v e s had a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e same impacts among those i nvo 1 ved i n immediate dec i s i ons , and comprom i se among o b j e c t i v e s has been d e f e r r e d f o r l a t e r d e c i s i o n s . The invo lvemen t o f dec i s ion -makers ( a t t h e v a r i o u s l e v e l s ) i n t h e s e l e c t i o n process has been g i v e n i n t h e answer t o Q u e s t i o n 15.

The c o n c l u s i o n s and recommendations t h a t can be shared a r e t h a t i n an amiab le s o c i a l env i ronment dec i s ion -mak ing i s easy, and t h a t sometimes d i f f i c u l t d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g prob lems can be d e f e r r e d .

Question 25

As i n d i c a t e d i n t h e answer t o Q u e s t i o n 24 above, no t r a d e - o f f a n a l y s i s was made, because i t was p o s s i b l e t o d e f e r i t .

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Question 26

The dec is ion-maker d i d a c c e p t t h e " o p t i m a l " s o l u a t i o n genera ted by t h e model and d i d accec t +he approach w i t h o u t s u p p l e m e n t a t i o n by "convent i ona 1 i n f ormat ion" , b u t t h e procedures used a l r e a d y by o p e r a t o r s w i t h a " f e e l " f o r t h e system were c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e r e s u l t s o f t h i s s tudy .

Question 27

The f i n a l p l a n was s e n t i n t h e fo rm o f a recommendation t o t h e M i n i s t e r , who r e f e r r e d i t t o t h e South A u s t r a l i a n Wate r Resources Counc i l f o r a d v i c e . T h i s Counc i l i s made up o f t h e heads o f t h e Department and o t h e r government agenc ies and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f ma jor p u b l i c i n t e r e s t groups. I t , i n i t s a d v i c e t o the M i n i s t e r , agreed w i t h t h e recommendation. T h i s was then agreed t o by t h e Government o f South A u s t r a l i a .

Question 28

For f u n d i n g t h e f i n a l p l a n , l o n g - e s t a b l i s h e d process was used o f a r r a n g i n g f o r S t a t e Government 1 oan funds w i t h s u p p l e m e n t a t i o n f rom Commonwealth ( f e d e r a l ) g r a n t s .

Question 2 9

A c o n t i n u i n g e v a l u a t i o n i s b e i n g c a r r i e d o u t . The p l a n n i n g u n d e r t a k e n i n t h e s tudy b e i n g d e s c r i b e d has n o t t e rm ina ted , nor has c o n t i n u i n g e v a l u a t i o n ceased. For i n s t a n c e , work i s now p r o c e e d i n g on t h e development o f d e t a i l e d o p e r a t i n g procedures w i t h updated d a t a and m o d i f i e d models.

5. Planning Stage 5: Project Design

Question 30

Wi'th t h e s t r u c t u r e t h a t t h e Eng i neer i ng and Water Supply Department then had, the s tudy was

done by t h e P l a n n i n g S e c t i o n o f t h e Water Resources Branch. The approved recommendat ion f rom t h e P 1 ann i ng S e c t i o n gave a c o n f i a u r a t i n n f o r a s v s t e m w i t h new components ( i n t h i s case w a t e r t r e a t m e n t p l a n t s ) and s p e c i f i e d c a p a c i t i e s . T h i s was g i v e n t o t h e Des ign Branch and c r e a t e d no d i f i c u l t i e s .

Acknowledgement

Thanks a r e due t o M r . K . J . Shepherd o f t h e E n g i n e e r i n g and Water Supply Depar tment , South A u s t r a l i , f o r many c l a r i f i c a t i o n s . Any o b s c u r i t i e s and m i s t a k e s a r e t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f t h e a u t h o r .

References and Bibiliography

A l l e n , C.M., and K i l l i c k , J.C., I ' Au t oc r ac y o r Democracy? P u b l i c Invo lvement i n Water Resources P l a n n i n g , " H y d r o l o g y and Water Resources .Symposium, 1979, P e r t h , I n s t i t u t i o n o f Eng ineers , A u s t r a l i a , Canberra, A.C.T . , 1979, pp. 23-27 .

Bel lman, R . E . , and Drey fus , S . E . , A p p l i e d Dynamic Programming, P r i n c e t o n U n i v r s i t y Press , 1962.

Eng i neer i ng and Water SUPP 1 Y Department, South A u s t r a l i a , M e t r o p o l i t a n A d e l a i d e Water Resource Study , Ade la ide , South

v o l umes) . A u s t r a l i a , June 1978 (2

Haimes, Y . Y . , and Macko, D . , " H i e r a r c h i c a l S t r u c t u r e i n Water Resources Systems Management," IEEE T r a n s a c t i o n s on Systems, Man, and C y b e r n e t i c s , J u l y 1973, pp. 396-402.

Hera th , A . F . , and Chong, P.S., "Secur i t y and Augmenta t ion D e c i s i o n C r i t e r i a i n a Complex Water Resources S y s tern, I'

o f Canberra I n s t i t u t i o n Eng ineers , Aust.ra1 i a , Canberra, A.C.T., 1978, pp. 109-113.

H y d r o l o g y Symposium, 1978 9

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L i n d n e r , M.A., Samad, F . A . , and Howel I, D.T., "The Use o f S y n t h e t i c H y d r o l o g y i n D e c i s i o n Making i n a Complex R i v e r Val l e y , " H y d r o l o g y and Water Resources Symposium, 1980, Adel a i de, I n s t i t u t i o n o f Eng ineers , A u s t r a l i a , Canberra, A.C.T., 1980, pp. 119-127.

Manoel, P.J. and S c h o n f e l d t , C.B., "Economic O p t i m i z a t i o n o f an Expanding Water SUPP 1 Y , H y d r o l o g y Symposium, 1977 9

B r i sbane, I n s t i t u t i o n o f Eng ineers , A u s t r a l i a , Canberra, A.C.T., 1977, pp. 88-92.

Mesarov ic , M.D., Macko, D., and Takahara, Y., Theory o f H i e r a r c h i c a l M u l t i l e v e l Systems, Academic p ress , New York, 1970.

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POST EVALUATION OF THE PLANNING PROCESS IN THE VISTULA RIVER BASIN, POLAND

Zdz i s I aw Kaczmare k Institute of Geophysicis of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Water Resources Division

Janusz KINDLER Institute of Environmental Engineering Warsaw Technical University, Warsaw, Poland

1. Preface

The f o l l o w i n g p o s i t i o n s were h e l d by t h e co -au tho rs a t t h e t i m e t h e V i s t u l a R i v e r P r o j e c t ( " P l a n n i n g Comprehensive Development o f t h e V i s t u l a R i v e r System") was conducted (1968-1971) :

Z d z i s l a w Kaczmarek:

P r o f e s s o r and D i r e c t o r , I n s t i t u t e o f Env i ronmen ta l E n g i n e e r i n g , War saw Techn i ca 1 U n i v e r s i t y ; i n charge o f t h e i n t e r - i n s t i t u t i o n a l team o f P o l i s h s c i e n t i s t s and p r a c t i t i oners d e v e l o p i n g p r o j e c t methodo logy .

Janusz K i n d l e r :

A c t i n g D i r e c t o r , Bureau o f t h e P l a n o f O p e r a t i o n " V i s t u l a " ; P r o j e c t to-Manager r e s p o n s i b l e f o r p r o j e c t m o b i l i z a t i o n and e x e c u t i o n j o i n t y w i t h t h e P r o j e c t Manager a p p o i n t e d b y t h e UNDP; l a t e r Ch ie f P r o j e c t Eng ineer and member o f t h e team charged w i t h development o f p r o j e c t methodo logy .

2. Planning Stage 1: Project lnitation and Preliminary Planning

Question 7

The f i r s t l ong - te rm n a t i o n a l wa te r resources development p l a n was d r a f t e d by t h e Po l i s h Academy o f

Sc iences i n t h e yea rs 1953-1956 ( t i m e h o r i z o n o f 1975). The p l a n

was t h e n t w i c e r e v i s e d i n t h e e a r l y 60s by t h e N a t i o n a l Water A u t h o r i t y , and t h e t i m e h o r i z o n ex tended t o 1985. By 1968, i t became c l e a r t h a t t h e wa te r s i t u a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e V i s t u l a R i v e r B a s i n wh ich c o v e r s abou t 54% o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s a rea , r e q u i r e d spec i a 1 a t t e n t i o n . P r e l i m i n a r y l o n g - t e r m p r o j e c t i o n s deve loped by t h e Planni 'ng Commission and t h e P o l i s h Academy o f Sc iences i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e s t a t e o f w a t e r a v a i l a b i l i t y i n t h e b a s i n was n o t c o m p a t i b l e w i t h f u t u r e demands. I n 1968, comprehens ive s t u d i e s were i n i t i a t e d w i t h t h e a s s i s t a n c e o f t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s Development p rogram and t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s i t s e l f , under t h e name o f t h e " V i s t u l a R i v e r P r o j e c t " ("P 1 ann i ng Comprehens i v e Development o f t h e V i s t u l a R i v e r System") .

The goa l o f t h e p r o j e c t was t o r e s o u r c e s fo rmu 1 a t e a wa te r

development ( i nves tmen t ) program capab le o f m e e t i n g demands p r o j e c t e d t o t h e y e a r s 1985 and 2000. I t was assumed t h a t t h e p r o j e c t wou ld make use o f a l l p o s s i b l e improvements i n

t h e methodo logy o f d e s i g n i n g and o p e r a t i n g l a r g e - s c a l e and complex wa te r r e s o u r c e systems ( a p p l i c a t i o n o f ma themat i ca l t e c h n i q u e s , computer s i m u l a t i o n , and t h e 1 i k e ) .

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Cont inuous r e v i s i o n and v e r i f i c a t i o n o f p l a n s i s u n a v o i d a b l e i n a r a p i d l y expand ing economy; t h e v a l u e o f an o p e r a t i o n a l t o o 1 f o r q u i c k e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e consequences t o water management o f some new development concep ts and a l t e r n a t i v e s canno t be exaggera ted .

Question 2

On t h e Po l i s h s i d e , " H y d r o p r o j e k t " , a f i r m o f consu l t i ng eng ineers o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n t h e framework o f t h e N a t i o n a l Water Author i t y , was charged w i t h t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t and i t s c o o r d i n a t i o n w i t h a b o u t 40 r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t e s r e p r e s e n t i ng 14 m i n i s t r i e s concerned and s e v e r a l u n i v e r s i t i e s . The development o f p r o j e c t methodo logy was ass igned t o a s p e c i a l l y c r e a t e d team o f abou t 20 s p e c i a l i s t s r e p r e s e n t i n g u n i v e r s i t y i n s t i t u t e s and v a r i o u s o r g a n i z a t i o n s o f t h e N a t i o n a l Water A u t h o r i t y . From t h e UNDP s i d e , an i n t e r n a t i o n a l pane l o f e x p e r t s a s i s t e d t h e P o l i s h team t h r o u g h o u t t h e e n t i r e d u r a t i o n o f t h e s t u d y . A s s i s t a n c e i n t h e development o f p r o j e c t methodo logy was e n t r u s t e d b y t h e UNDP t o Water Resources Eng i nee rs , I nc . , Wa 1 n u t Creek, C a l i f o r n i a , U . S . A .

There was no p u b l i c i nvo l vemen t i n t h e p r o j e c t p r e p a r a t i o n . P r o j e c t o b j e c t i v e s were f o r m u l a t e d by t h e N a t i o n a l Water A u t h o r i t y .

Question 3

See 1 above

Question 4

The o n l y c o n s t r a i n t s imposed on t h e s t u d y were t h o s e r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e Water Law, Water Q u a l i t y Ac t , and o t h e r governmenta l dec rees and r e g u l a t i o n s i n f o r c e i n Po land a t t h e t i m e o f p r o j e c t p r e p a r a t i o n .

Question 5

The m e t h o d o l o g i c a l work was f i r s t o r g a n i z e d around a b a s i c scheme proposed b y t h e I n s t i t u t e o f Env i ronmen ta l E n g i n e e r i n g o f Warsaw T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y . The s o - c a l l e d

Three-Step Method i s composed o f t h r e e computer programs wh ich a r e a p p l i e d s e q u e n t i a l l y i n o r d e r t o : (I) de te rm ine a s e t o f t a r g e t r e l e a s e s f o r i n d i v i d u a l r e s e r v o i r s i n t h e system, (2) d e v e l o p o p e r a t i n g r u l e s f o r t h e r e s e r v o i r s g i v e n t h e i n f l o w h y d r o l o g y and t h e t a r g e t o u t f l o w s , and ( 3 ) de te rm ine t h e o p t i m a l a l l o c a t i o n o f a v a i l a b l e wa te r t o a l l wa te r uses c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e model, g i ve r i t h e o p e r a t i n g r u l e s f rom ( 2 ) . Steps (1) and (3) were based on t h e O u t - o f - K i l t e r A l g o r i t h m , wh ich i s a s p e c i a l - p u r p o s e l i n e a r programming method d e r i v e d f rom network f l o w t h e o r y . S tep (2) was based on t h e method deve loped by Kornatowsk i (1969), emp loy ing s t o c h a s t i c dynamic programming. D e t a i I s o f t h e Three-Step Method a r e d e s c r i b e d b y Kaczmarek e t a l . (1971). The programs were made o p e r a t i o n a l on t h e Pol ish-made Odra 1204 and 1304 computers; however, t hey c o u l d n o t be combined i n t o a s i n g l e program because o f t h e l i m i t e d c a p a c i t y o f t h e machines a v a i l a b l e a t t h a t t i m e . Under t h e c i r cums tances , i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e method was r a t h e r d i f f i c u l t and a t t e n t i o n was focused on t h e development o f t h e so-ca 1 1 ed S i n g l e - S t e p Met hod ( r e f e r r e d t o as t h e WRM Mode l ) .

T h a t met hod u t i 1 i z e s t h e O u t - o f - K i l t e r A l g o r i t h m t o s o l v e w a t e r r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n problems i n a complex m u l t i - r e s e r v o i r system (see K ing e t a l . , 1971).

3. Planning Stage 2: Data Collection and Processing

Question 6

A s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r m e t h o d o l o g i c a l s t u d i e s was a proposa l made by t h e I n s t i t u t e o f Env i ronmenta l Eng ineer ing , Warsaw T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y , f o r a s p a t i a l and- p r o b l e m - o r i e n t e d decompos i t i on o f t h e system. Such a decompos i t i on was j u s t i f i e d by t h e e x c e p t i o n a l s i z e o f t h e V i s t u l a R i v e r Bas in , t h e l a r g e number o f u s e r s , t h e c o m p l i c a t e d system s t r u c t u r e , and t h e l i m i t e d computer f a c i l i t i e s a v a i l a b l e a t t h a t t ime . I t was dec ided , t h e r e f o r e , t o decompose t h e

-141

b a s i n s p a t i a l l y i n t o 1 3 subsystems. Each o f t hese r e p r e s e n t s an a rea whose economic s t r u c t u r e i s as u n i f o r m as p o s s i b l e , wh ich i s o f homogeneous h y d r o l o g i c a l n a t u r e , and wh ich c r e a t e s s i m i l a r h y d r a u l i c e n g i n e e r i n g prob lems.

W i t h r e g a r d t o p r o b l e m - o r i e n t e d decompos i t i on , t h e p r o p o s a l - - i n c o n f o r m i t y w i t h the s p e c i a l c h a r a c t e r o f wa te r management i n Poland--was d i r e c t e d m a i n l y toward t h e prob lem o f w a t e r supp ly f o r t h e p o p u l a t i o n , a g r i c u l t u r e , and i n d u s t r y ; toward water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l ; and toward independent i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e most r a t i o n a l s o l u t i o n s f o r f l o o d c o n t r o l .

The l i s t o f water c o n t r o l o b j e c t i v e s i d e n t i f i e d i n t h e " V i s t u l a R i v e r P r o j e c t ' ' i n c l u d e d :

Water s u p p l y t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n , a g r i c u l t u r e and i n d u s t r y ;

Maintenance of t h e minimum

( e s t a b l i s h e d v i a a d e t a i l e d s t u d y o f t h e env i ronmen ta l e f f e c t s o f v a r i o u s m i n i m u m

a c c e p t a b l e f l o w s

f l o w s ) ;

Water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l ;

F l o o d c o n t r o l ;

Development o f r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s ;

Development o f hydropower p r o d u c t i o n and i n l and n a v i g a t i on, t a k i ng i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f a l t e r n a t i v e power p r o d u c t i o n and t r a n s p o r t modes.

The t a r g e t v a l u e s o f a l l wa te r c o n t r o l o b j e c t i v e s have been e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e s p e c i a l i z e d agenc i es (14 m i n i s t r i e s i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n ) f o r two l e v e l s o f f u t u r e development, 1985 and 2000. The common base f o r a l l p r o j e c t i o n s has been t h e n a t i o n a l l ong - te rm development p l a n . F i n a l

c o m p i l a t i o n , c r i t i c i a l e v a l u a t i o n , and p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e s e d a t a has been ass igned t o t h e N a t i o n a l Water A u t h o r i t y and i t s agenc i es , espec i a 1 1 y "H yd r op r o j ek t" p r e v i o u s l y ment ioned.

t h e

For w a t e r s u p p l y s t u d i e s , 15 yea rs o f h i s t o r i c a l mean m o n t h l y f l o w s were used. D i f f e r e n t h y d r o l o g i c d a t a were used f o r t h e wa te r q u a l i t y s t u d i e s , f l o o d c o n t r o l , and hydropower p r o d u c t i o n .

Question 7

Only e x i s t i n g d a t a were used a f t e r t h e i r i n t e n s i v e p r o c e s s i n g as t o match r e q u i r e m e n t s o f methods employed f o r p r o j e c t p r e p a r a t i o n .

Question 8a.

No.

Question 8b

No

Question 9

No

Question 70.

R e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s was used f o r e s t i m a t i o n o f wa te r r e q u i r e m e n t s . Network f l o w methods were used f o r t r a n s f e r r i n g s t r e a m f l o w d a t a from gaug ing s t a t i o n s t o supp ly /use b a l a n c i n g nodes.

4. Planning Stage 3: Formulation and Screening of Project Alternatives

Question I 7.

See P l a n n i n g Stage 1 .

Question 12.

P r o j e c t execu t i on was a u t h o r i z e d b y t h e Governmental Decree s p e c i f y i n g a l l i n s t i t u t i o n s i n v o l v e d and ob1 i g i n g them t o m o b i l i z e a p p r o p r i a t e manpower and f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s .

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Question 73.

No p a r t i c i p a t i o n

Question 14.

. A l t o g e t h e r , 148 i nves tmen t and wa te r use a 1 t e r n a t i ves were analyzed--46 f o r t h e t i m e h o r i z o n o f 1985 and 102 f o r t h e year 2000. A l t e r n a t i v e s were s p e c i f i e d by " H y d r o p r o j e k t " w i t h t h e a s s i s t a n c e o f t h e m i n i s t r i e s concerned.

Question 75.

C o n f l i c t s i n wa te r use were ana lyzed by a s s i g n i n g w e i g h t s t o d i f f e r e n t uses r e f l e c t i n g t h e i r mu tua l p r i o r i t i e s . The system o f p r i o r i t y w e i g h t s was deve loped b y t h e p r o j e c t team.

Question 76.

See Q u e s t i o n 4 above.

Question 77.

a) The WRM Mode 1 ; s i m u l a t i o n / o p t i m i z a t i o n package f o r a n a l y s i s o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s a l l o c a t i o n , i n c l u d i n g r e s e r v o i r s o p e r a t i o n .

b) The POWDYN Model; dynamic programming f o r d e t e r m i n a t i o n of t h e o p t i m a l r e s e r v o i r o p e r a t i n g p o l i c i e s f o r hydropower p r o d u c t i o n .

c) The POWREC Model; s i m u l a t i o n f o r c o m p u t a t i o n o f t h e hydroenergy o u t p u t s .

d) The m o d i f i e d SSARR Model; f l o o d p r o p a g a t i o n a n a l y s i s .

A 1 1 models were deve loped d u r i n g t h e p r o j e c t .

Question 18.

A l l models were t e s t e d t h r o u g h a p p l i c a t i o n a g a i n s t d e t a i l e d d a t a i n t h e most complex o f t h e r i v e r b a s i n subsystems.

Question 79.

" H y r o p r o j e k t " p r e s e n t e d a few "bes t " a l t e r n a t i v e s t o t h e M i n i s t r y o f A g r i c u l t u r e (wh ich r e p l a c e d t h e

fo rmer N a t i o n a l Water A u t h r o r i t y ) wh ich n e x t p r e s e n t e d a s e l e c t e d a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h e government f o r f i na 1 aprova 1 . I n 1976, t h e government approved t h e p l a n and a l l o c t e d t h e necessary funds f o r p r o j e c t i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ( d e t a i l e d a l l o c t i o n f o r t h e n e a r e s t 5 -year p l a n and d i r e c t i o n a l a l l o c a t i o n u n t i 1 t he year 2000). I n 1978, a new o r g n i z a t i o n was s e t up f o r p r o j e c t imp lemen ta t i on . S ince 1980, p r o j e c t imp lementa ton has been k e p t a t a s i g n i f i c a n t l y reduced l e v e l because o f t h e o v e r a l l economic d i f f i c u l t i e s o f t h e c o u n t r y .

Question 20.

Yes, i t was.

5. Planning Stages 4 and 5

These s tages do n o t a p p l y t o t h e l e v e l o f p l a n n i n g i n t h e V i s t u l a R i v e r Bas in .

References

Kaczmarek, Z . , K . K r a j e w s k i , T . Ko rna towsk i , A . F i l i p k o w s k i , J . K i n d l e r , and D . F . K i b l e r (1971). The M u l t i - S t e p Method f o r S i m u l a t i o n and O p t i m i z a t i o n o f V i s t u l a R i v e r P l a n n i n g A l t e r n a t i v e s , i n Proceedings o f t h e Warsaw Symposium on Mathemat ica l Mode 1 s i n Hydro 1 ogy , I n t e r n a t i o n a l A s s o c i a t i o n o f H y d r o l o g i c a l Sc iences P u b l i c a t i o n No. 101, Unesco, P a r i s , pp. 1072-1077.

K ing , I . P . , J. F i l i m o w s k i , and J. K i nd 1 e r (1971) . The O u t - o f - K i l t e r A l g o r i t h m as a S i n g l e - S t e p Met hod f o r S i m u l a t i o n and O p t i m i z a t i o n of V i s t u l a R i v e r P 1 ann i ng A l t e r n a t i v e s , i n Proceed ings of t h e Warsaw Sympos i um on Mathemat ica l Mode 1 s i n Hydro 1 ogy , I n t e r n a t i o n a l A s s o c i a t i o n o f H y d r o l o g i c a l Sciences P u b l i c a t i o n No. 101, Unesco, P a r i s . pp. 1078- 1085.

Korna towsk i , T. (1969). B a s i s o f Opt ima l Management o f a S i n g l e S torage R e s e r v o i r , P u b l i c a t i o n o f t h e Warsaw T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y .

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DEVELOPMENT OF A WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR THE SUSAA CATCHMENT IN DENMARK

Dan ROSBJERG Associate Professor Technical University of Denmark DK -2800 Lyngby, Denmark

1. Introduction

The Susaa-Pro jec t i s a 5 -year h y d r o l o g i c a l r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t i n i t i a t e d i n 1977 as t h e Dan ish c o n t r i b u t i on t o t h e I HP and comple ted i n t h e b e g i n n i n g o f 1982.

The Susaa catchment c o v e r s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 750 square k i l o m e t e r s and i s s i t u a t e d i n t h e c e n t r a l and s o u t h e r n p a r t o f Zealand 50-70 km south-west o f Copenhagen, see F i g . 1 .

The Susaa b a s i n i s u n d e r l a i n by a r e g i o n a l a r t e s i an aqu i f e r c o n s i s t i n g o f l i m e s t o n e d e p o s i t s covered by semipermeable g l a c i a l d e p o s i t s o f c l a y e y mora ine .

The wa te r SUPP 1 Y o f m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s i s g e n e r a l l y based on d i s t r i b u t e d l o w - i n t e n s i v e groundwater a b s t r a c t i o n schemes. However, a c e n t r a l i z e d h i g h - i n t e n s i v e groundwater a b s t r a c t i o n f o r t h e b e n e f i t o f Copenhagen i s l o c a t e d j u s t o u t s i d e t h e n o r t h - e a s t e r n p a r t o f t h e ca tchment . I n a d d i t i o n Copenhagen u t i l i z e s t h e two l a k e s H a r a l d s t e d so and G y r s t i n g e so as supp lementary s u r f a c e water r e s e r v o i r s .

The p r e s e n t g roundwater a b s t r a c t i o n f o r i r r i g a t i o n purposes i s r a t h e r l i m i t e d , b u t t h e i n t e r e s t among f armers has i n c r e a s e d . E s p e c i a l l y t h e 1975-1977 d r o u g h t s gave r i s e t o a boom i n l i c e n c e a p p l i c a t i o n s . I r r i g a t i o n based d i r e c t l y on s u r f a c e water r e s o u r c e s

i s v e r y l i m i t e d and w i l l n o t b e p e r m i t t e d i n t h e f u t u r e due t o low f l o w cond i t i ons d u r i ng t h e i r r i g a t i o n season.

Low f l o w augmen ta t i on b y means o f g roundwater has n o t y e t been a p p l i e d i n Denmark. The i n t e r e s t i n i n v e s t i g a t i n g t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y o f e l i m i n a t i n g low f l o w c a l a m i t i e s i s , however, s t r o n g l y i n c r e a s i n g .

There a r e g r e a t r e c r e a t i o n a l and c o n s e r v a t i o n i n t e r e s t s a t t a c h e d t o t h e a r e a . E s p e c i a l l y t h e l a k e T y s t r u p and i t s s u r r o u n d i n g a r e a i s a s i t e of g r e a t conce rn . The s t reams w i t h i n t h e b a s i n a r e i n genera l a l s o s u b j e c t t o p u b l i c awareness i n terms o f b o t h t h e i r q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y p r i m a r i l y fo r t h e purpose o f e c o l o g y and r e c r e a t i o n i n c l u d i n g f i s h i n g and canoe i ng .

The Susaa as we1 1 as i t s t r i b u t a r i e s a c t as r e c i p i e n t s for m u n i c i p a l sewage. The waste-water t r e a t m e n t p l a n t s o p e r a t e a t d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s , b u t e x c e p t f o r some m ino r p l a n t s w i t h o n l y mechan ica l t r e a t m e n t t h e p l a n t s p r o v i d e a t l e a s t b i o l o g i c a l t r e a t m e n t .

The n o r t h e r n p a r t o f t h e Susaa catchment i s shown i n more d e t a i l i n F i g . 2 . The management p a r t o f t h e e n t i r e Susaa p r o j e c t i s i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e s u b j e c t for t h e answer ing o f t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e .

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Z E A L A N D

F i g . 2 ZeaZand and t h e l o c a t i o n of t h e Susaa Catchment

-14

5-

U

U

m

3

Q

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2. Planning Stage 1: Project Initiation and Preliminary Planning

Question 1

I n 1970 t h e t o t a l consumpt ion o f wa te r i n Zea land was e s t i m a t e d t o be 35% o f t h e maximum amount wh ich was c o n s i d e r e d p o s s i b l e t o w i t h d r a w w i t h o u t p a y i n g any a t t e n t i o n t o t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l consequences. The demand f o r t h e year 2000 was f o r e c a s t e d t o be5O%. Thus, t a k i n g a l s o t h e impact on t h e env i ronmen t i n t o accoun t , s e r i o u s prob lems c o u l d be f o r e s e e n .

The l a r g e s t expans ion o f t h e w a t e r w i t h d r a w a l was p lanned t o t a k e p l a c e w i t h i n t h e Susaa b a s i n . The c i t i e s o f Naestved and e s p e c i a l l y Copenhagen were c a r r y i n g o u t a s e r i e s o f p r e i n v e s t i g a t i o n s , b u t t h e f i n a l d e c i s i o n f o r t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e expans ion schemes was n o t taken, one o f t h e reasons b e i n g t h e p u b l i c conce rn o f p o s s i b l e e n v i r o n m e n t a l damages. As a consequence o f t h e i n c r e a s i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l awareness, t h e M i n i s t e r for Env i ronmen ta l A f f a i r s asked t h e Dan ish N a t i o n a l Agency f o r Env i ronmen ta l P r o t e c t i o n and t h e t h r e e r e g i o n a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s o f Zea land t o p l a n an i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e e c o l o g i c a l consequences o f an i n c r e a s i n g groundwater a b s t r a c t i o n i n Zealand. For t h e above men t ioned reasons i t was dec ided t o p e r f o r m t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i n t h e Susaa b a s i n . A t t h a t t i m e t h e Dan ish Committee f o r Hydro logy was fo rmed as t h e commi t tee r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e Dan ish p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e I H P . Because t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e IHP cor responded v e r y w e l l w i t h t h e o b j e c t i ves of t h e c u r r e n t i n v e s t i g a t i o n s , t h e comrn i t t e e s e l e c t e d t h e Susaa b a s i n as a r e s e a r c h a rea .

The ma in o b j e c t i v e o f t h e p r o j e c t was t o s t u d y t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l and t o some e x t e n t t h e e c o l o g i c a l and economic consequences o f i n c r e a s e d wa te r r e s o u r c e s development: and t o d e v e l o p a p p r o p r i a t e t o o l s f o r wa te r r e s o u r c e s management.

Seven r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t i o n s p a r t i c i p a t e d i n t h e Susaa p r o j e c t . The s tudy was f i n a n c e d by t h e Dan ish N a t i o n a l Agency of Env i ronmen ta l P r o t e c t i o n , t h e Dan ish A g r i c u l t u r a l and V e t e r i n a r y Research C o u n c i l , t h e Dan ish N a t u r a l Sc ience Research C o u n c i l , t h e Dan ish T e c h n i c a l Research Counc i l and t h e Dan ish N a t i o n a l Agency o f Techno logy .

Question 2:

The Susaa r e s e a r c h programme was o u t l i n e d by a w o r k i n g group c o m p r i s i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f Dan ish i n s t i t u t i o n s d e a l i n g w i t h h y d r o l o g y . The s u b - p r o j e c t c o n c e r n i n g management o f t h e wa te r resources was p lanned i n d e t a i l b y t h e t h r e e i n s t i t u t i o n s t a k i n g p a r t h e r e i n : 1) I n s t i t u t e o f Hydrodynamics and H y d r a u l i c E n g i n e e r i n g , T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y o f Denmark, 2) t h e Water Q u a l i t y I n s t i t u t e , and 3) t h e Dan ish Land Development S e r v i c e . The Dan ish Committee f o r Hydro logy was r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e e n t i r e Susaa-p ro jec t . The pub1 i c was n o t i n v o l v e d d i r e c t l y .

Question 3:

One o f t h e ma in reasons f o r t h e s u c c e s s f u l a p p l i c a t i o n o f f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t t o t h e p r o j e c t was t h e appearance o f a new wa te r resources development a c t wh ich reques ted comprehensive wa te r resources p l a n n i n g on t h e r e g i o n a l l e v e l t a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n :

t h e q u a n t i t y o f t h e water resources .

2 t h e p u b l i c , i n d u s t r i a l and a g r i c u l t u r a l needs, f o r a s u f f i c i e n t wa te r supp ly , b o t h q u a n t i t a t i v e l y and q u a l i t a t i v e l y .

J( env i ronmenta l p r o t e c t i o n ( p r o t e c t i o n / c o n s e r v a t i o n o f t h e t h e env i ronmen ta l and r e c r e a t i o n a l va 1 ues) .

5; o t h e r p u b l i c c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , among those t h e use o f r a w m a t e r i a l s .

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Thus t h e p l a n n i n g shou ld r e c o g n i z e and s o l v e t h e c o n f l i c t s between t h e d i f f e r e n t i n t e r e s t s r e p r e s e n t i n g w a t e r supp ly , waste wa te r d i s p o s a l , i r r i g a t i o n , r e c r e a t i o n and c o n s e r v a t i o n o f wet a reas . I t was commonly agreed h a t t h i s wou ld r e q u i r e more i n s i g h t n t o t h e hydro1 og i ca 1 processes and development o f more approp r a t e p l a n n i n g t o o l s .

Question 4:

The c o n s t r a i n t s were p r i m a r i l y o f a f i n a n c i a l c h a r a c t e r . A f t e r n e g o t i a t i o n s g i v i n g r i s e t o some r e d u c t i o n s i n t h e p roposa l fo r t h e r e s e a r c h programme, t h e p r o j e c t was accepted by t h e f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s men t ioned i n t h e answer t o q u e s t i o n 1 .

Question 5:

Because a1 1 t h e r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t i o n s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e p r o j e c t as w e l l as t h e f i n a n c i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s were s t r o n g l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g phase, t h e f i n a l r e s e a r c h programme became f u l l y accepted .

The e n t i r e Susaa p r o j e c t comprised:

F i e l d s t u d i e s o f h y d r o l o g i c p rocesses .

Ma themat i ca l m o d e l l i n g o f h y d r o l o g i c p rocesses and systems.

Management o f water resources .

The genera l purpose o f t h e management p a r t o f t h e Susaa p r o j e c t was t o deve lop mathemat ica l models s u i t a b l e f o r water resources p l a n n i n g purposes . The v a r i o u s p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r model f o r m u l a t i o n was e v a l u a t e d i n t h e p r e l i m i n a r y p l a n n i n g phase, and a combined model wh ich w a s a b l e t o s i m u l a t e t h e j o i n t e f f e c t s o f wa te r a b s t r a c t i o n and sewage d i s p o s a l i n t h e Susaa catchment was found most c o n v e n i e n t f o r d e t a i l e d s t u d i e s o f t h e consequences o f v a r i o u s p l a n n i n g schemes.

3. Planning Stage 2: Data Collection and Processing

Questions 6 and 7:

H y d r o l o g i c and wa te r q u a l i t y d a t a were used t o c a l i b r a t e t h e submodels of t h e t o t a l s i m u l a t i o n mode l . The f o l l o w i n g i s not a comp le te d e s c r i p t i o n , b u t o n l y a l i s t i n g , w i t h t h e purpose t o g i v e an i dea o f t h e t y p e s and t h e p r o p o r t i o n s o f t h e a p p l i e d d a t a , w h i c h p a r t l y compr ised a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g d a t a and p a r t l y d a t a c o l l e c t e d d u r i n g t h e p r o j e c t phase.

For t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l submodels s e r i e s o f p r e c i p i t a t i o n , s t r e a m f l o w , p o t e n t i a l e v a p o t r a n s p i r a t i o n , and t e m p e r a t u r e d a t a t a k e n on a d a i l y b a s i s from s e v e r a l s t a t i o n s i n t h e b a s i n were used. Fur therrnor e, g roundwater l e v e l o b s e r v a t i o n s , l o n g t e r m as w e l l as s h o r t t e r m i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h pumping t e s t s , were

groundwater a b s t r a c t i o n s and d i s c h a r g e s o f was te wa te r t r e a t m e n t p l a n t s were a l s o t a k e n i n t o accoun t .

app l i ed. R e g i s t r a t i o n s o f

Water q u a l i t y s t r e a m f l o w d a t a were c o l l e c t e d d u r i n g i n t e n s i v e 2-day measurement p e r i o d s , where p r i m a r i l y t h e d i s c h a r g e and t h e v a r i a t i on i n t h e oxygen c o n c e n t r a t i o n were obse rved . F u r t h e r d a t a f o r c a l i b r a t i o n o f t h e s t r e a m f l o w q u a l i t y model were used f o r example t h e l oad o f o r g a n i c m a t t e r o r i g i n a t i n g from d i f f u s e . sou rces , p l u s t h e geornet r i cs o f t h e c o n s i d e r e d s t reams. The wa te r qua l i t y o f l a k e models was c a l i b r a t e d on t h e bas i s o f measurements o f d a t a showing t h e p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i o n , c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f t o t a l n i t r o g e n , t o t a l phosphorous, oxygen, c h l o r o p h y l l , e t c .

One of t h e i n t e n t i o n s o f t h e p r o j e c t was t o a n a l y s e examples o f f u t u r e d i s p o s i t i o n s f o r t h e wa te r r e s o u r c e on a b a s i s as r e a l i s t i c as p o s s i b l e . T h e r e f o r e a l a r g e e f f o r t was made t o c o l l e c t p r e c i s e d a t a w i t h r e g a r d t o ex i s t i ng d i s p o s i t i o n s , f o r e c a s t s o f t h e f u t u r e demands and t h e d i s p o s i t i o n p l a n s a l r e a d y worked out . These

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p l a n s compr i se t h e development o f wa te rworks f o r l o c a l s u p p l y i n t h e Susaa catchment and t h e s o - c a l l e d pa rag raph 2 1 p l a n s f o r t h e f u t u r e waste water t r e a t m e n t w i t h i n t h e b a s i n ( r e f e r r i n g t o pa rag raph 2 1 i n t h e Dan ish e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n a c t ) .

F i n a l l y , econom i c d a t a c o n c e r n i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s and o p e r a t i o n c o s t s o f wa te rworks and waste wa te r t r e a t m e n t p l a n t s were c o l l e c t e d . Hereby t h e consequences o f v a r i o u s w a t e r r e s o u r c e s schemes can be compared a l s o i n economic te rms.

Question 8:

No OR t e c h n i q u e was used i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and p r o c e s s i n g .

model was o u t s i d e t h e scope o f t h e p r o j e c t . The p r e l i m i n a r y p r o j e c t phase covered a p p r o x i m a t e l y 6 months i n wh ich t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n a n a l y s i s and f i n a l p r o j e c t s p e c i f i c a t i o n was worked o u t by a s tudy group c o m p r i s i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s f r o m t h e t h r e e p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s .

Question 12.

D u r i n g t h e p r o j e c t p e r i o d some o f t h e p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s suppor ted t h e p r o j e c t b y a l l o c a t i n g more r e s e a r c h manpower than g r a n t e d b y t h e f i n a n c i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s and by p r o v i d i n g rooms and s e c r e t a r i a l a s s i s t a n c e f r e e o f charge f o r t h e p r o j e c t .

Question 13:

The p u b l i c d i d n o t p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e r e s e a r c h p l a n n i n g p rocess .

Question 9: Question 14:

A databank was e s t a b l i s h e d f o r a l l d a t a c o l l e c t e d as p a r t o f t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i n t h e Susaa a rea . T h i s p romoted t h e exchange o f d a t a between t h e s u b p r o j e c t s and ensured t h e s t o r a g e o f d a t a i n an o p e r a t i o n a l f o r m .

Question 10:

See t h e answers t o Q u e s t i o n s 6 and 7 .

4. Planning Stage 3: Formulation and Screening of Project Alternatives

Question 11:

I n t h e management p a r t o f t h e S u a - p r o j e c t i t was i n i t i a l l y agreed t h a t t h e m a i n a c t i v i t y s h o u l d be t o d e v e l o p an o v e r a l l s i m u l a t i o n model wh ich was a b l e t o c a l c u l a t e t h e i n t e g r a t e d e f f e c t s o f water a b s t r a c t i o n and waste w a t e r d i s p o s a l i n t h e ca tchment , b y comb in ing a s e r i e s o f q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y sub-models. I n t h e p r e l i m i n a r y phase o f t h e p r o j e c t p e r i o d t h e

o p t i m i z a t i o n models were examined i n d e t a i l , b u t t h e c o n c l u s i o n was t h a t d e v e l o p i n g an o v e r a l l o p t i m i z a t i o n

p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f aPP1 Y i ng

The o b j e c t i v e o f t h e p r o j e c t was t o d e v e l o p a t o o l s u i t a b l e f o r i n v e s t i g a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e d i s p o s i t i o n s f o r t h e use o f t h e wa te r resource , t a k i n g i n t o account c o n f l i c t i n g i n t e r e s t s such as: a b s t r a c t i o n f o r l o c a l and e x t e r n a l p u b l i c water s u p p l y , i r r i g a t i o n o f fa rmland, r e c r e a t i o n a l use o f s t reams and lakes , use o f t h e streams as r e c i p i e n t s f o r t r e a t e d waste w a t e r .

Question 75:

I n t h e p r e l i m i n a r y p r o j e c t phase, i t was r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e c h o i c e o f a s i m u l a t i o n model t y p e imp1 i e d some shor t comings . T r a d e - o f f s c o u l d n o t b e e x p l i c i t l y de te rm ined and t h e model was n o t a b l e t o f i n d t h e " o p t i m a l " scheme f o r a c e r t a i n c h o i c e o f l o c a l and e x t e r na 1 demands, i r r i g a t i o n p e r m i s s i o n s , minimum d i s c h a r g e s a t v a r i o u s s t a t i o n s and s e l e c t e d water q u a l i t y s tandards e t c . However, t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r o b t a i n i n g d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n o f t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l , t h e wa te r q u a l i t y , and t h e economic consequences o f s e l e c t e d schemes were found more i m p o r t a n t .

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I n t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f d e v e l o p i n g an o v e r a l l o p t i m i z a t i o n model i t '&as r e a l i z e d t h a t o n l y a model w i t h a h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e c o u l d be used. T h i s s t r u c t u r e was o u t l i n e d , b u t n o t worked o u t i n f u l l d e t a i l .

Question 76:

No f u r t h e r c o n s t r a i n t s were imposed i n t h e p l a n n i n g phase.

Question 77:

The deve loped s i m u l a t i o n model c o n s i s t s o f a s e r i e s o f h y d r o l o g i c a l and water q u a l i t y submodels wh ich a im t o p r o v i d e a u n i f i e d b a s i s f o r wa te r r e s o u r c e s management. The sub-models can be d i v i d e d i n t o a h y d r o l o g i c a l and a water q u a l i t y model complex, supplemented w i t h programs t h a t c a l c u l a t e t h e economic consequences o f t h e chosen r e g i o n a l water r e s o u r c e s scheme.

The ma in h y d r o l o g i c a l submodel i s an i n t e g r a t e d s u r f a c e / s u b s u r f a c e catchment model, wh ich a l l o w s f o r s i m u l a t i o n o f s o i l m o i s t u r e i n t h e r o o t zone, e v a p o r a t i o n , f l o w i n t i l e - d r a i n s , s t r e a m f l o w and seepage t o and f l o w t h r o u g h a q u i f e r s . T h i s model i s ex tended w i t h models f o r i r r i g a t i o n , f o r management o f s u r f a c e r e s e r v o i r s and f o r l o w - f l o w augmenta t ion . The model t hus takes i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h e c o n j u n c t i v e use o f s u r f a c e and groundwater resources w i t h t h e i n t e n t i o n o f p r o v i d i n g w a t e r f o r supp ly , w h i l e m a i n t a i n i n g adequate s t reamf lows .

The wa te r qua l i t y model complex u t i l i z e s i n p u t s c o n c e r n i n g he waste water t r e a t m e n t scheme ( o c a t i o n , c a p a c i t y and removal e f f i c ency o f t h e t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t es and by -pass ing c o n f i g u r a t i o n s ) t o g e t h e r w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n about c r i t i c a l s t reamf lows and p o s s i b l e l o w - f l o w augmenta t ions s i m u l a t e d by t h e h y d r o l o g i c model complex. T h i s a l l o w s f o r s i m u l a t i o n o f t h e wa te r q u a l i t y i n s t reams . Fur thermore , t h e water q u a l i t y complex c a l c u l a t e s t h e l oad o f n u t r i e n t s on two o f t h e l a k e s i n t h e b a s i n , by means o f wh ich t h e wa te r q u a l i t y h e r e i n can be de termined.

For g i v e n wa te r r e s o u r c e s d i s p o s i t i o n s t h e t o t a mode 1 o p e r a t e s as s t a n d a r d dur ng a t i m e p e r i o d o f 31 yea rs , u t i l i z i n g m e t e o r o l o g i c a l d a t a f rom he p e r i o d 1950-1980 on a d a i l y b a s i s as i n p u t . T h i s a l l o w s t h e consequences t o be e v a l u a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e c l i m a t i c v a r i a t i o n s t o b e expec ted a l s o i n t h e f u t u r e . Thereby a s t a t i s t i c a l assessment o f t h e consequences, as we1 1 as a p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e consequences as f u n c t i o n s o f t i m e ( f o r example d u r i n g a d r o u g h t p e r i o d ) can be chosen. The c o u p l i n g o f t h e model complexes i s shown i n F i g . 3.

As s t a n d a r d t h e model s i m u l a t e s t h e h y d r a u l i c head o f t h e p r i m a r y g roundwater i n 1 1 2 l o c a t i o n s , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e po lygons shown i n F i g . 4 , t h e s t r e a m f l o w i n 45 s t a t i o n s and t h e wa te r l e v e l v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e l a k e s on a d a i l y b a s i s .

The wa te r q u a l i t y i n t h e l a k e s i s c a l c u l a t e d as t h e y e a r l y p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i o n , w h i l e t h e q u a l i t y i n t h e s t reams i s g i v e n as t h e v a r i a t i o n o f t h e oxygen c o n c e n t r a t i o n d u r i n g a c r i t i c a l s t r e a m f l o w s i t u a t i o n i n t h e above ment ioned 45 s t a t i o n s .

Add t o t h i s a s e r i e s o f p o s s i b i 1 i t i e s f o r s i n g 1 i n g o u t s p e c i a l i n f o r m a t i o n , f o r example r e g a r d i n g i r r i g a t i o n , v a r i a t i o n of t h e i r r i g a t i o n demand, i n c r e a s e o f t h e e v a p o t r a n s p i r a t i o n and t h e p e r c o l a t i o n , e t c .

Question 18:

The d i f f e r e n t sub-models were t e s t e d , c a l i b r a t e d and v e r i f i e d i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h v a r i o u s s u b - p r o j e c t s w i t h i n t h e e n t i r e Susaa p r o j e c t . To some e x t e n t t hey were m o d i f i e d when i n t r o d u c e d i n t o t h e t o t a l s i m u l a t i o n model.

Question 79:

The s e l e c t i o n o f a f i n a l p l a n f o r w a t e r r e s o u r c e s development i n t h e a rea was o u t s i d e t h e scope o f t h e r e s e a r c h programme.

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Question 20.

The p r o j e c t was i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y o n l y i n t h e sense t h a t b o t h t h e q u a n t i t y and t h e q u a l i t y e f f e c t s o f p o t e n t i a l wa te r r e s o u r c e s development schgmes were hand led s i m u l t a n e o u s l y by t h e model, c o n t r a r y t o t h e t r a d i t i o n a l approach w i t h more o r l e s s u n c o o r d i n a t e d p l a n n i n g o f w a t e r a b s t r a c t i o n and sewage d i s p o s a l , e t c .

5. Planning Stage 4: Development of Final Project Specifications

Question 27:

OR methods were not used i n t h e p r o j e c t . However, i t i s p o s s i b l e w i t h o u t any d i f f i c u l t i e s t o e x t e n d t h e model by a s u b - o p t i m i z a t i o n o f t h e waste wa te r t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s . W i t h g i v e n q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s f o r t h e s t ream and f i x e d c a p a c i t i e s o f t h e p l a n t s t h e t r e a t m e n t l e v e l s can be a l l o c a t e d i n o r d e r t o o b t a i n m i n i m u m annual c o n s t r u c t i o n and o p e r a t i o n c o s t s .

Question 22:

No c o s t b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s was made as p a r t o f t h e p r o j e c t .

t h e model f o r p l a n n i n g purpose. I t was t h e hope t h a t t h i s i l l u s t r a t i v e use o f t h e model wou ld encourage t h e wa te r a u t h o r i t i e s concerned w i t h t h e Susaa catchment t o implement t h e model i n t h e f u t u r e p l a n n i n g p rocess , as w e l l as o t h e r water a u t h o r i t i e s , t o d e v e l o p s i m i l a r mode ls .

The r e p o r t e d examples o f model s i m u l a t i o n (see 1) compr ise :

9~ I n c r e a s e o f s u r f a c e water w i t h d r a w a l f o r e x t e r n a l use.

9~ C o n j u n c t i v e a b s t r a c t i o n o f groundwater and s u r f a c e wa te r f o r e x p o r t purposes .

9~ Groundwater a b s t r a c t i o n f o r i r r i g a t i o n .

Low f l o w augmenta t ion .

Jt A 1 t e r n a t i v e waste wa te r t r e a t m e n t schemes.

E s s e n t i a l f o r s e l e c t i o n o f model s i m u l a t i o n examples was t h e f a c t t h a t t h e c i t y o f Copenhagen p r e v i o u s l y had shown g r e a t i n t e r e s t i n t h e groundwater r e s o u r c e s o f t h e b a s i n , t h e r e b y compet ing w i t h l o c a l demand f o r wa te r s u p p l y , r e c r e a t i o n and i r r i g a t i o n .

Question 23: Questions 24 and 25:

No s p e c i f i c r i s k a n a l y s i s was per fo rmed, b u t impact a n a l y s i s was pe r fo rmed t o a l a r g e e x t e n t as a s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t o f t h e p r o j e c t .

The p r a c t i c a l use o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n model i s shown i n F i g . 5 . The d i s p o s i t i o n s o f t h e wa te r r e s o u r c e t o be ana lysed a r e s p e c i f i e d by t h e user as i n p u t t o t h e model. Depending on t h e needs f o r d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n o f t h e consequences, t h e use r s p e c i f i e s t o what e x t e n t t h e s imu s h o u l d appear as ou model r u n n i n g .

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p l ann i ng i n o r d e r l i t y o f

The consequences o f s p e c i f i c p l a n s f o r use o f t h e wa te r resources can be assessed i n d e t a i l b y t h e s i m u l a t i o n model. A s p e c i f i c t r a d e - o f f a n a l y s i s was n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e p r o j e c t . However, i t i s by means o f t h e model p o s s i b l e t o s tudy t h e env i ronmen ta l and economic consequences o f v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r water resources development i n t h e Susaa catchment, and t o de te rm ine a p p r o p r i a t e c o n f i g u r a t i o n s o f waterworks and sewage t r e a t m e n t p l a n t s .

Question 26:

No dec is ion -makers were i n v o l v e d i n t h e r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t .

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Questions 27 and 28:

No f i n a l p l a n was approved as p a r t o f t h e p r o j e c t .

Question 29:

The p r o j e c t g roup made on r e q u e s t o f t h e Dan ish Committee o f Hydro logy a p r o p o s a l f o r a g e n e r a l i z a t i o n of sys tem a n a l y s i s models f o r w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g purposes . The Susaa p r o j e c t formed an e s s e n t i a l b a s i s f o r t h e p r o p o s a l , w h i c h has n o t y e t been g r a n t e d .

A f t e r c o m p l e t i o n o f t h e Susaa p r o j e c t t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s management g r o u p was asked t o p e r f o r m a. comprehensive documen ta t i on and u p d a t i n g o f t h e model i n o r d e r t o make i t p o s s i b l e f o r t h e r e g i o n a l wa te r a u t h o r i t i e s t o r u n t h e mode l . U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h i s p r o j e c t was c o n f i n e d t o t h e

h y d r o l o g i c a l model complex, so now t h e more o p e r a t i o n a l v e r s i o n o f t h e model does n o t i n c l u d e water q u a l i t y and economic a s p e c t s . T h i s p r o j e c t was f i n a n c e d by t h e Dan ish N a t i o n a l Agency o f Env i ronment P r o t e c t i o n t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e t h r e e r e g i o n a l wa te r a u t h o r i t i e s o f Zealand.

6. Planning Stage 5 - Project Design

Question 30:

No d e s i g n was pe r fo rmed as p a r t o f t h e p r o j e c t .

Reference

(1) Knudsen J., and D . R o s b j e r g (1982) . Water resources p l a n n i n g i n t h e Susaa b a s i n b y means of a s i m u l a t i o n model. N o r d i c Hydro logy , V o l . 13, pp. 323-338.

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MANAGEMENT OF ISRAEL'S WATER RESOURCES

Uri SHAMIR Faculty of Civil Engineering, Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, 32000, Israel.

1. Introduction

I n t h i s case s tudy we c o n s i d e r t h e use o f t h e systems approach f o r p l a n n i n g and management o f I s r a e l ' s water r e s o u r c e s . I t i s somewhat d i f f e r e n t f r o m o t h e r case s t u d i e s i n t h i s volume, because i t spans many yea rs o f a c t i v i t y , c o v e r i n g a c o n t i n u o u s p rocess o f p l a n n i n g s , i n a water r e s o u r c e s p r o j e c t wh ich cove rs an e n t i r e c o u n t r y , a l b e i t one whose s i z e may n o t be much l a r g e r t h a n some o f t h e r e g i o n s cove red by o t h e r case s t u d i e s .

A v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l amount o f water resources systems a n a l y s i s work has been c a r r i e d o u t i n I s r a e l s i n c e t h e e a r l y 1 9 6 0 ' ~ , spann ing t h e e n t i r e spec t rum f rom l o n g range p l a n n i n g f o r t h e e n t i r e c o u n t r y down t o r e a l - t i m e o p e r a t i o n o f l o c a l systems. A r e v i e w t o 1980 was pub1 i s h e d by Shamir (1980). H e r e i n we s h a l l answer t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e w i t h s p e c i f i c r e f e r e n c e t o t h e " P r o j e c t P 1 ann i ng" p a r t o f ou r work . S t i l l , t h i s r e f e r s n o t t o one p a r t i c u l a r s t u d y b u t t o p l a n n i n g work for t h e n a t i o n a l system and i t s r e g i o n a l components, work w h i c h has been done i n many i n t e r - r e l a t e d s t u d i e s ove r t h e y e a r s .

I s r a e l ' s w a t e r resources a r e managed by t h e Water Commissioner.

r e s p o n s i b l e f o r d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and a n a l y s i s , and adv i ses t h e Water Commissioner. Tahal-Water P l a n n i n g

The H y d r o l o g i c Serv i c e I S

f o r I s r a e l , L t d . i s t h e n a t i o n a l p l a n n e r . Mekoro t Water Co. L t d . i s t h e n a t i o n a l wa te r s u p p l i e r . Development, a d a p t a t i o n and use o f systems a n a l y s i s me thodo log ies and models have been c a r r i e d o u t by t h e s e b o d i e s , i n c l o s e c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h u n i v e r s i t i e s .

The systems a n a l y s i s work has been s t r u c t u r e d as a h i e r a r c h y ( f o r d e t a i 1 s see Shamir, 1980) : a t t h e t o p a r e models o f l o n g range p l a n n i n g f o r t h e e n t i r e c o u n t r y , and as one p r o g r e s s e s down t h e h i e r a r c h y o f models t h e tempora l and s p a t i a l d e t a i l i n c r e a s e s . Some r e f e r e n c e s a r e c i t e d a t t h e end o f t h . i s case s, tudy. T h i s i s b u t a sample, s i n c e an e x t e n s i v e l i s t wou ld be t o o l o n g . A l so , much o f t h e work, even when new m e t h o d o l o g i e s were b e i n g deve loped and t e s t e d , i s d e s c r i b e d o n l y i n p r o j e c t r e p o r t s , most o f them i n Hebrew.

Nex t we g i v e a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f I s r a e l ' s w a t e r r e s o u r c e s and needs, and t h e n proceed t o answer t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e .

I s r a e l ( F i g u r e 1) i s l o c a t e d i n a s e m i - a r i d a rea , where mean annua l p r e c i p i t a t i o n averages 25-50 mm i n t h e s o u t h , 500-600 mm i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n s , and reaches 7 0 0 - l l O O mm i n t h e n o r t h . About 80% o f t h e t o t a l p r e c i p i t a t i o n o c c u r s i n t h e n o r t h e r n h a l f o f t h e c o u n t r y , a lmos t e n t i r e l y between October and March. The c o u n t r y ' s a r e a i s about 20,000

-156-

-157-

square k i l o m e t e r s , and t h e p o p u l a t i o n i s j u s t o v e r 4 m i l l i o n .

The p roven n a t u r a l w a t e r resources o f I s r a e l amount t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1850x10 m3/year: about 60% i s f r o m groundwater , 30% i s f rom Lake K i n n e r e t ( t h e Sea o f G a l i l l e e ) , and t h e remainder i s f r o m o t h e r s u r f a c e sou rces . Two t h i r d s o f t h e groundwater comes from two main a q u i f e r s : t h e c o a s t a l a q u i f e r s (a 5-30 km s t r i p a l o n g t h e Med i te r ranean c o a s t ) , and t h e deeper l i m e s t o n e a q u i f e r t o i t s e a s t . These main sources a r e shown on F i g u r e 1 , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e N a t i o n a l Water C a r r i e r . Completed i n 1964, t h e N a t i o n a l C a r r i e r i s t h e backbone o f I s r a e l ' s wa te r s u p p l y system. I t t akes abou t 400x10 rn3/year f r o m Lake K i n n e r e t , and t h r o u g h c o n n e c t i o n t o abou t 25 r e g i o n a l systems s u p p l i e s and r e c e i v e s wa te r a l o n g i t s r o u t e .

Hos t o f t h e wa te r p o t e n t i a l i s a l r e a d y deve loped, and i n c e r t a i n cases - -no tab ly t h e coas t a 1 a q u i f e r - - i s o v e r - e x p l o i t e d . The t o t a l amount a v a i l a b l e fqr s u p p l y depends on t h e p o l i c y f o r e x t r a c t i o n from t h e sources: shou ld i t be ba lanced, i .e. n o t exceed t h e n a t u r a l p o t e n t i a l , o r w i l l o v e r - d r a f t be a l l o w e d f o r some p e r i o d o f t ime . I f o v e r - d r a f t i s a l l owed , t h i s must e v e n t u a l l y l e a d t o a r e d u c t i o n o f s u p p l i e s , u n l e s s water can be produced e c o n o m i c a l l y from t h e r e m a i n i n g sources and/or by d e s a l i n a t i o n . Use o f r e c l a i m e d sewage f o r i r r i g a t i o n o f c e r t a i n c rops i s i n c r e a s i n g , and i s expec ted t o reach 250-300x10 m3/year.

Demand p r e s e n t 1 y t o t a l s 1850x10 mg/year: 69% i n a g r i c u l t u r e , 22% urban and 9% i n d u s t r i a l . 75x10 m3/year a r e a l l o w e d t o f l o w f r o m t h e c o a s t a l a q u i f e r t o t h e sea t o p r o v i d e some f l u s h i n g o f con taminan ts and c o n t a i n t h e sea water i n t r u s i o n . T h i s b r i n g s t o t a l p r e s e n t use t o 1925x10 mg/year, more than t h e average annual p o t e n t i a l o f t h e p r e s e n t l y deve loped sources .

U n t i l t h e l a t e 1960 's t h e ma in o b j e c t i v e o f I s r a e l ' s water s e c t o r

was development o f t h e sou rces and o f t h e conveyance and d i s t r i b u t i o n systems, t o b r i n g wa te r t o a l l consumers. The wa te r systems deve loped ove r t h e f i r s t two decades o f t h e S t a t e ' s e x i s t e n c e f r o m a s c a t t e r e d c o l l e c t i o n o f o u t d a t e d l o c a l systems, each based on i t s own l o c a l sources , t o an i n t e g r a t e d n a t i o n a l system. Once t h e main systems were i n p l a c e , and demands reached and t h e n exceeded t h e r e s o u r c e p o t e n t i a l , t h e w a t e r s e c t o r has t o d e a l w i t h s c a r c i t y o f wa te r and c o m p e t i t i o n among t h e consumers. The ma in i ssues and problems now a re :

(1) Comp le t i ng t h e development o f t h e r e m a i n i n g sources , wh ich a r e p r o b l e m a t i c , remote, expens ive , o f low q u a l i t y . These i n c l u d e some s u r f a c e and ground w a t e r , r e c l a i m e d sewage and p o s s i b l y d e s a l i n a t i o n .

(2) The p r e s s u r e t o i n c r e a s e s u p p l i e s , on t h e one hand, and t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o p r e s e r v e t h e q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y o f wa te r i n t h e sou rces , on t h e o t h e r , must be r e s o l v e d somehow i n a ba lanced p o l i c y .

(3) O p e r a t i o n o f t h e N a t i o n a l Water C a r r i e r and t h e r e g i o n a l systems, w h i c h connec t t h e ma in r e s e r v o i r s and convey wa te r over

t h t h e a b i 1 i t y

c o n s i d e r a b l e d i s t a n c e s , w a t t e n d a n t p rob lems o f r e 1 and h i g h energy c o s t s .

(4) A n o t i c e a b l e d e t e r of wa te r q u a l i t y i n some sources , p r i m a r i l y i n t h e aqu i f e r .

( 5 ) L i m i t e d budgets ,

o r a t i o n o f t h e

coas t a 1

wh ich s e v e r e l y c o n s t r a i n i nves tmen ts i n new p r o j e c t s and main tenance o f e x i s t i n g ones.

2. Planning Stage 1: Project Initiation and Preliminary Planning

Question I:

Long range p l a n n i n g i s an i n t e g r a l component o f t h e systems a n a l y s i s work i t s e l f . The models a t t h i s l e v e l c o n s i d e r e x p l i c i t l y on t h e s u p p l y s i d e t h e s t o c h a s t i c

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n a t u r e o f t h e a v a i l a b l e wa te r r e s o u r c e s , and on t h e demand s i d e The expec ted i n c r e a s e s i n domes t i c demands and t h e p r o d u c t i v e uses o f wa te r i n a g r i c u l t u r e and i n d u s t r y . The r e s u l t s of t h e a n a l y s i s a t t h i s l e v e l p r o v i d e t h e framework f o r a l l o f t h e more d e t a i l e d r e g i o n a l and p r o j e c t l e v e l p l a n s .

The answer t o Q u e s t i o n 1 i s t h e r e f o r e t h a t when a p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t i s p lanned t h e r e i s a l ong - te rm programme i n t o wh ich i t must f i t . A t t h e same t ime , t h i s l o n g - t e r m programme I S n o t c o m p l e t e l y f i x e d , and a c t u a l l y e v o l v e s and changes as r e g i o n a l p l a n s a r e s t u d i e d .

Question 2:

For t h e l a s t 20 yea rs t h e r e have a lways been s e v e r a l teams o f systems a n a l y s t s w o r k i n g on v a r i o u s components o f t h e s t u d i e s . The t o t a l number o f s k i l l e d pe rsonne l has ranged between abou t 10 and 3 0 , i n 4-5 g roups a t u n i v e r s i t i e s and o p e r a t i o n a l agenc ies . The p e o p l e ' s e x p e r t i s e a r e : w a t e r resources e n g i n e e r i n g , mathema€ics, s t a t i s t i c s , computer s c i e n c e s . Most h o l d Mas te rs and D o c t o r a t e degrees .

The 'pub1 i c ' i s a lways r e p r e s e n t e d i n I s r a e l i n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p rocess , by v i r t u e o f t h e f a c t t h a t r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f s e v e r a l c o n s t i t u e n c i e s - n o t a b l y t h e fa rmers - s e r v e on some o f t h e g o v e r n i n g b o d i e s .

Question 3

A t t h e h i g h e s t l e v e l s o f t h e systems a n a l y s i s h i e r a r c h y t h e o b j e c t i v e s a r e r a t h e r g e n e r a l , and a r e expresed as ' t o s u p p l y a l l t h e wa te r needed f o r t h e c o u n t r y ' s development and w e l f a r e f o r a l l t imes t o come.' As one moves down t h e h i e r a r c h y t h e c r i t e r i a become more s p e c i f i c , and c o n f l i c t i n g o b j e c t i v e s appear. G e n e r a l l y , domes t i c s u p p l y has t h e h i g h e s t p r i o r i t y , and t h e remainder i s g i v e n t o a g r i c u l t u r e and i n d u s t r y . The

p r i m a r y c r i t e r i a f o r e v a l u a t i o n o f s p e c i f i c p l a n s a r e : mee t ing demands, p r e s e r v a t i o n o f wa te r q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y i n t h e sources f o r f u t u r e g e n e r a t i o n s , economics, env i ronmen ta l q u a l i t y .

Question 4:

The s e v e r e s t c o n s t r a i n t s a r e : t h e l i m i t e d water resource , budget , t h e need t o supp ly wa te r a c c o r d i n g t o t h e n a t i o n a l s e t t l e m e n t p l a n , t h e ( p o l i t i c a l ) d i f f i c u l t y t o reduce t h e

wa te r a l l o c a t i o n t o a g r i c u l t u r e ( i n o r d e r t o b a l a n c e t h e demand w i t h t h e l i m i t e d s u p p l y , as t h e domes t i c demands g r o w ) .

These c o n s r r a i n t s , a l l o f them, have been and s t i l l a r e t h e s u b j e c t o f debates and c o n t r o v e r s i e s . Even t h e f i r s t , wh ich seems t o depend on n a t u r a l and ' o b j e c t i v e ' phenomena, i s s u b j e c t t o d i s c u s s i o n because one can a l l o w ove r e x p l o i t a t i o n o f t h e a q u i f e r s f o r some t i m e a t t h e 'expense ' o f f u t u r e g e n e r a t i o n s , and t h e r e f o r e t h e t o t a l r e s o u r c e c o n s t r a i n t i s a c t u a l l y a p o l i c y v a r i a b l e . The o t h e r c o n s t r a i n t s a r e o b v i o u s l y p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s , and a r e t h e r e f o r e open t o a g r e a t dea l o f d i s c u s s i o n , evqn i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a p a r t i c u l a r r e g i o n a l s t u d y and n o t o n l y a t t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l .

Question 5:

I t i s v e r y ha rd t o answer t h i s q u e s t i o n i n t h e c o n t e x t o f our mu1 t i -year mu1 t i - p r o j e c t case. Methods o f a n a l y s i s were developed, adapted and a p p l i e d i n v a r i o u s p a r t s o f t h e work . A t t i m e s t h e r e was c o n s i d e r a b l e d isagreement on wh ich method(s) t o use, b u t t h i s had i n genera l a p o s i t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e u l t i m a t e outcome o f t h e a n a l y s i s . A t o t h e r t imes i t was q u i t e o b v i o u s wh ich method wou ld be b e s t .

P r a c t i c a l l y a l l o f t h e known sys tems ana 1 ys i s approaches and techn iques have been used, i n one case o r a n o t h e r .

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Question 7: 3. Planning Stage 2: Data Collection and Processing

Question 6

Many. d a t a bases have been deve loped over t h e years , y e t i t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t c o n s i d e r a b l e u n c e r t a i n t y a lways remains . Some o f t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , a n a l y s i s , assembly and p u b l i c a t i o n d e s e r v e s p e c i a l men t ion . H y d r o l o g i c d a t a o f s u r f a c e water ( f l o w s , qual i t i e s ) and o f groundwater ( l e v e l s , e x t r a c t i o n , q u a l i t y ) a r e c o l l e c t e d r e g u l a r l y on an e x t e n s i v e s p a t i a l and tempora l g r i d . These d a t a a r e p u b l i s h e d and made a v a i l a b l e t o a l l p l a n n e r s . An o f f i c i a l 'Water Resources P o t e n t i a l Book' i s updated once e v e r y few years , and, once p u b l i s h e d , i s a fo rma l b i n d i n g document f o r a l l p l a n s . Wh i le i t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h i s document does n o t c o n s t t u t e t h e u l t i m a t e f i n a l ' t r u t h ' , i t p u t s o rde r i n a1 1 p l a n n i n g work by e s t a b l i s h i n g an o f f i c i a l gu ide1 ne.

On t h e demand s i d e t h e s i t u a t i o n i s d i f f e r e n t . Exac t d a t a e x i s t on p a s t and p r e s e n t demands (month ly and annua l q u a n t i t i e s f o r a l l consumers) s i n c e w a t e r i s a l l o c a t e d , me te red and charged. Fo recas ts o f f u t u r e demands, i n p a r t i c u l a r f o r new s e t t l e m e n t s and the i n c r e a s e i n domes t i c use, a r e open t o e s t i m a t i o n and e v a l u a t i o n by p l a n n e r s , even though some b i n d i n g n a t i o n a l documents do e x i s t .

A sou rce o f u n c e r t a i n t y i n p l a n n i n g i s t h e e s t i m a t e d budge t t h a t w i l l be a v a i l a b l e t o t h e w a t e r s e c t o r i n genera l and t o each p r o j e c t i n p a r t i c u l a r , i n t h e yea rs t o come. I n r e c e n t years t h i s u n c e r t a i n t y has been a cause f o r c o n s i d e r a b l e d i f f i c u l t y i n t h e p l a n n i n g phase, more so, f o r example, t han any expec ted changes i n c o s t d a t a , i n t e r e s t r a t e s , e t c . A l so n e t b e n e f i t f rom water used f o r i r r i g a t i o n i s an i m p o r t a n t p i e c e o f i n f o r m a t i o n f o r p l a n n i n g . Data e x i s t f r o m a number o f sources , b u t t h e r e a r e c o n s i d e r a b l e d i f f e r e n c e s between v a l u e g i v e n by t h e v a r i o u s sources (depending on t h e i r v e s t e d i n t e r e s t i n t h i s m a t t e r ) so t h a t no f i r m d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e .

Data i s c o n s t a n t l y c o l l e c t e d , ana lyzed and assembled b y t h e H y d r o l o g i c S e r v i c e , Taha l and Mekoro t on: h y d r o l o g y o f s u r f a c e and ground w a t e r s , a c t u a 1 consumpt ions , expec ted demands, c o s t s , b e n e f i t s from i r r i g a t i o n . S t i l l , f o r each p l a n f o r m u l a t i o n some a d d i t i o n a l d a t a assembly and ana l ys i s I S per fo rmed . O c c a s i o n a l l y , s y n t h e t i c d a t a g e n e r a t i o n i s a l s o used.

Question 8:

OR t e c h n i q u e s have been used by t h e H y d r o l o g i c S e r v i c e t o p l a n and o p e r a t e t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n ne tworks , p r i m a r i l y o f g roundwate r .

Question 9:

Assessment o f d a t a a v a i l a b i l i t y i s pe r fo rmed on a r e g u l a r b a s i s b y t h e agenc ies i n charge, and t h e r e f o r e t h e r e i s u s u a l l y no need t o dea l w i t h t h i s m a t t e r e x p l i c i t l y i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a p a r t i c u l a r p l a n n i n g s t u d y .

Question 70:

Data a n a l y s i s , u s i n g a v a r i e t y o f s t a t i s t i c a l methods, i s c a r r i e d o u t on a r e g u l a r b a s i s by t h e H y d r o l o g i c S e r v i c e and Taha l , f o r t h e s u r f a c e and ground w a t e r h y d r o l o g y d a t a .

4. Planning Stage 3: Formulation and Screening of Project Alternatives

Question 11:

A t y p i c a l r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g s t u d y r e q u i r e s between 1 and 2 man-years o f systems a n a l y s t s and s u p p o r t i n g s t a f f . A d d i t i o n a l c o s t s a r e p r i m a r i l y f o r s e v e r a l hou rs o f

t i m e on a l a r g e c o m p u t a t i o n computer.

Question

Not r e a r e c a r r i e d themse lves .

12:

evan t , s i n c e t h e s t u d i e s o u t by t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s

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Question 13:

No p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e normal sense, excep t t h a t ment ioned a l r e a d y i n Q u e s t i o n 2 .

Question 14:

The a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e u s u a l l y d e f i ned i n a ma themat i ca l programming model by a s e t o f c o n s t r a i n t s . T h e r e f o r e t h e r e i s an i n f i n i t e number o f f eas i b 1 e a1 t e r n a t i v e s . S t i l l , t h e c o n s t r a i n t s d e t e r m i n e t h e range o f f e a s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s , and s e t t i n g t h e c o n t r a i n t s amounts t o s c r e e n i n g out some a l t e r n a t i v e s . The systems a n a l y s t s f o r m u l a t e t h e c o n s t r a i n t s , and must t h e r e f o r e be c a r e f u l n o t t o impose t h e i r own f i x e d i deas on t h e p l a n . I n a t y p i c a l model t h e r e i s a v e r y l a r g e number (hundreds, even s e v e r a l thousands) o f c o n s t r a i n t s , and some a r e r a t h e r i n t r i c a t e . The chance t h a t anyone b u t t h e systems a n a l y s t s themselves w i l l d e t e c t m i s c o n c e p t i o n s and/or e r r o r s i n t h e c o n s t r a i n t s i s v e r y low. T h i s p u t s a g r e a t r e s p o n s i b i l i t y on t h e systems a n a l y s t s , and t h e y m u s t

s e l f - d i s c i p l i n e and pe rseve rance i n c h e c k i n g and re-check i ng t h e cons t r a i n t s .

e x e r c i se a g r e a t d e a l o f

Ma themat i ca l programming models can de term i ne t h e s i zes o f components w h i c h a r e p r e s e n t i n t h e i r f o r m u l a t i o n - i f a l l o w e d they can z e r o o u t v a l u e s , t he reby d e l e t i n g proposed components - b u t t h e y canno t ' i n v e n t ' new components where such were n o t i n c l u d e d by the a n a l y s t i n f o r m u l a t i n g t h e model. Thus model f o r m u l a t i o n does c o n t a i n some a l t e r n a t i v e s e l e c t i o n . The a n a l y s t m u s t t h e r e f o r e be c a r e f u l t o i n c l u d e i n t h e model a l l r easonab le a l t e r n a t i v e s , and n o t s c r e e n out a r b i t r a r i l y such a l t e r n a t i v e s .

Question 75:

D e c i s i o n s i n I s r a e l ' s water s e c t o r a r e made by t h e Water Commissioner. He has a p p o i n t e d s e v e r a l commi t tees t o a i d h im i n t h i s m a t t e r , so t h a t each p l a n must pass th rough an e l a b o r a t e check ing and approva l p r o c e s s . For i m p o r t a n t

p r o j e c t s an ad-hoc s t e e r i n g commi t tee i s u s u a l l y s e t up. I t i s t h e f i r s t l e v e l o f p l a n e v a l u a t i o n , b u t i t s o u t p u t m u s t t hen go t o t h e permanent commi t tees , and u l t i m a t e l y t o t h e Water Commissioner h i m s e l f .

T r a d e - o f f s a r e somet imes expressed e x p l i c i t l y ( i n t h e model i t s e l f o r i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n process) and sometimes i m p l i c i t l y . C o n f l i c t r e s o l u t i o n i s by d i s c u s s i o n s i n commi t tees , u l t i m a t e l y b y t h e Water Commissioner h i m s e l f , a i d e d by r e s u l t s o f t h e a n a l y s i s .

Question 16

A f u l l answer t o t h i s q u e s t i o n wou ld cover much more space than i s a l l o w e d he re . We s h a l l t r y t o answer i n g e n e r a l , f o r t h e v a r i o u s t ypes o f c o n s t r a i n t s n o r m a l l y p r e s e n t i n ou r p l a n n i n g s t u d i e s .

(a) Hydro1 ogy and ava i 1 ab 1 e wa te r : These a r e r a t h e r w e l l f i x e d . Some s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s i s u s u a l l y per fo rmed, t o e x p l o r e t h e e f f e c t o f u n c e r t a i n t y i n our knowledge o f t h e sources and o f t h e s t o c h a s t i c h y d r o l o g y .

(b) Demands: Some a r e imposed by t h e n a t i o n a l development p l a n s f o r s e t t l e m e n t . F o r e c a s t s o f u rban demand g rowth a r e open t o d i s c u s s i o n and a n a l y s i s by t h e p l a n n e r s . A g r i c u l t u r a l demands a lmos t always exceed a v a i l a b l e resources , so t h a t l i t t l e d i f f i c u l t y e x i s t s i n assess i ng them.

(c) Economics: The budge ta ry c o n s t r a i n t m u s t be d e a l t w i t h by p a r a m e t r i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n , s i n c e i t i s u s u a l l y unknown i n advance. The same h o l d s t r u e f o r t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e .

Question 17:

Many models have been used over t h e years : o p t i m i z a t i o n (LP, DP) and s i m u l a t i o n ( d e t e r m i n i s t i c , s t o c h a s t i c ) . For p l a n n i n g purposes, t h e TEKUMA model (Schwart e t a l . , 1981a.b. 1982) has become t h e s t a n d a r d t o o l . I t i s a package o f programs wh ich i nc 1 udes t h e f o l l o w i n g components:

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(a) A m a t r i x g e n e r a t o r . G iven t h e b a s i c d a t a , i t 'expands ' i t i n t o t h e f u l l c o e f f i c i e n t m a t r i x and w r i t e s i t o u t an MPSX i n p u t f i l e .

(b) S o l u t i o n o f t h e LP by M P S X .

(c) A r e p o r t g e n e r a t o r . G i ven s p e c i f i c a t i o n s by t h e use r i t w r i t e s o u t t h e t a b l e s o f t h e o u t p u t i n a conven ien t and u s e f u l f o rm.

The L P model c o n s i d e r s t h e f o l l o w i n g :

(a) A number o f t i m e p e r i o d s over t h e p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n (e.g. 5 years , 10 years ) .

(b) Each p e r i o d i s r e p r e s e n t e d by a year , d i v i d e d i n t o seasons.

(c) Sever a 1 h y d r o 1 og i c cond i t i ons a r e cons ide red , each r e p r e s e n t i n g a d i f f e r e n t l e v e l o f wa te r a v a i l a b i l i t y a t t h e sources (e.g. d r y , average, wet) .

(d) Two t y p e s o f wa te r (e.g. p o t a b l e , non-potab le ) a r e i d e n t i f i e d . Sources and l i n k s (p ipes , channe ls ) b e l o n g t o one o r t h e o t h e r t ype . Consumers may t o l e r a t e up t o a g i v e n p e r c e n t o f e i t h e r t y p e i n t h e i r supp ly .

(e) Over-year and w i t h i n - y e a r s to rage .

( f ) Lower bounds on demands must be met. Consumers may be a b l e t o purchase more, depending on t h e c o s t o f t h e water d e l i v e r e d t o them and t h e b e n e f i t t h e y can d e r i v e f r o m u s i n g i t .

(9) D e c i s i o n v a r i ab1 es a re : c a p a c i t y expans ion i n each per i od, annua 1 and seasona 1 o p e r a t i o n i n t h e t y p i c a l year o f each p e r i o d , o f t h e sources and 1 i n k s .

T h i s model has been deve loped a t Tahal ove r t h e p a s t y e a r s , and has been used t o s t u d y t h e e n t i r e n a t i o n a l sys tem and seve ra l r e g i o n a l p l a n s .

Question 78:

The models wh ich have been used i n t h e p a s t , and t h e TEKUMA model as w e l l , a r e a lways s u b j e c t t o a l o n g and d e t a i l e d t e s t i ng and v e r i f i c a t i o n p r o c e s s .

We r e p e a t h e r e a comment made e a r l i e r . The systems a n a l y s t s have an onerous r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o make c e r t a i n t h a t b e f o r e any f i n a l r e s u l t s a r e g e n e r a t e d w i t h a model i t i s f r e e of l o g i c a l and d a t a e r r o r s . I f t h i s i s n o t done e a r l y enough i n t h e s t u d y t h e n more l i k e l y t h a n n o t such e r r o r s w i l l become apparen t l a t e r , as r e s u l t s a r e s t u d i e d for t h e f i n a l p l a n f o r m u l a t i o n , c a s t i n g d o u b t on t h e e n t i r e s t u d y and r e n d e r i n g t h e m o d e l l i n g e f f o r t u s e l e s s .

Question 19:

See answers t o p r e v i o u s q u e s t i o n s .

Question 20:

D i s c i p l i n e s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n p l a n n i n g s t u d i es i nc 1 ude: agr i c u l t u r e and i r r i g a t i on, a g r i c u l t u r a l economics, h y d r o l o g y , h y d r a u l i c e n g i n e e r i n g , w a t e r and sewage t r e a t m e n t , eng i neer i ng economics.

5. Planning Stage 4: Development of Final Project Specifications

Question 21:

See Q u e s t i o n 1 7 .

Question 22:

C o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s has been employed i n s p e c i f i c d e s i g n s t u d i e s . I n p l a n n i n g s t u d i e s t h e o b j e c t i v e i s u s u a l l y t o m i n i m i z e c o s t , s i n c e t h e l e v e l o f s u p p l y and o f s e r v i c e i s imposed .

Question 23:

E x p l i c i t r i s k o r impact ana lyses a r e n o t pe r fo rmed usua l - l y .

References Question 24:

M u l t i - o b j e c t i v e methods have been t r i e d ( A l k a n and Shamir, 1980), used on a r o u t i n e b a s i s . More o f t e n , s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s i s used t o e x p l o r e t h e t r a d e - o f f s between o b j e c t i v e s .

Question 25:

See above.

Question 26:

Opt ima l s o l u t i o n s genera ted by models a r e used t o f o r m u l a t e f i n a l p l a n s , w h i c h a r e t h e n approved v i a t h e p rocess d i s c u s s e d i n Q u e s t i o n

Question 27:

See Q u e s t i o n 15.

Question 28:

P r o j e c t s a r e a l l funded f r o m t h e n a t i o n a l budge t a l l o c a t e d t o t h e wa te r s e c t o r , e x c e p t some l o c a l p r o j e c t s i n whose f u n d i n g t h e consumers p a r t i c i p a t e .

Questions 29:

No e x p l i c i t s t u d y has been c a r r i e d o u t t o e v a l u a t e a s p e c i f i c p a r t o f a p l a n n i n g p rocess . The a n a l y s i s goes on a lmos t c o n t i n u o u s l y , and p a s t p l a n s a r e c o n s t a n t l y under r e - e v a l u a t i o n and m o d i f i c a t i o n .

6. Planning Stage 5: Project Design

Question 30:

D e t a i l e d d e s i g n and d raw ings a r e p repared b y o t h e r depar tmen ts o f Taha l . There i s a c l o s e c o o p e r a t i o n between t h e systems a n a l y s t s and t h e d e s i g n e r s .

A lkan, D . , and Shamir, U. (1980). " M u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e p l a n n i n g o f a r e g i o n a l wa te r resources sys tern", pp. 439-465 i n Opera t i ons Research i n A g r i c u l - t u r e and W a t e r Resources, Ed. by D.Yaron and C . T a p i e r o , N o r t h - H o l l a n d P u b l i s h i n g Co.

G a b l i n g e r , M., Schwarz, J . , and Y a r d i , Y . (1972) . "Use of systems approach i n p l a n n i n g I s r a e l I s wate r resources management". I n t e r n a t i o n a l Symposium on Water Resources P lann i ng, Mexi Co.

Schwarz, J . , e t a l . (1981). "Framework p l a n f o r I s r a e l ' s water s e c t o r ' ' . Progress r e p o r t no. 1 1 : F o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e TEKUMA model for t h e n a t i o n a l p lan ' ' , Repor t No. 01/81/51 ( i n Hebrew), Tahal - Water P l a n n i n g f o r I s r a e l L t d .

Schwarz, J . , e t a l . (1981). "Southern Arava - F o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e TEKUMA model model f o r a master p l a n " . Repor t No. 01/81/24 ( i n Hebrew), Tahal - Water P l a n n i n g for I s r a e l L t d .

Schwarz, J . , e t a l . (1982) . "Framework p l a n f o r I s r a e l ' s water s e c t o r " . P rog ress r e p o r t no. 12: Extreme s c e n a r i o s f o r development t o t h e end o f t h e c e n t u r y ( a n a l y s i s w i t h t h e TEKUMA mode 1) ' I , Repor t No. 01/82/11 ( i n Hebrew), Taha l - Water P l a n n i n g f o r I s r a e l L t d .

Schwarz, J . , e t a l . (1981). "TEKUMA user ' s manua 1 'I. Repor t No. 01/81/50 ( i n Hebrew), Tahal - Water P l a n n i n g f o r I s r a e l L t d .

Schwarz, J. , Meidad, N. and Shamir U. (1 985) "Water qua l i t y management i n r e g i n a l systems". pp. 341-349 i n S c i e n t i f i c Bas is f o r Water Resources management, IAHS P u b l i c a t i o n No. 153, Ed. by M. D i s k i n .

Shamir, U . (1980). " A p p l i c a t i o n o f o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h i n I s r a e l ' s water s e c t o r " . European Jou rna l o f O p e r a t i o n a l Research, V o l . 5 , PP. 334 -3345 .

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PROMOTION OF MULTIPURPOSE WATER MANAGEMENT FACILITIES IN THE TIRNAVA MARE BASIN

P. STEGAROIU, I DIMA, R. AMAFTIESEI, V.VISAN Research and Design Institute for Water Resources Engineering, ICPGA, Spl. lndependentei 294 C.P. 7895 Bucharest, Romania

1. Introduction

M u l t i p u r p o s e r i v e r bas i n deve lopment ,a iming a t b o t h f l o o d c o n t r o l and t h e r a t i o n a l use o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s , p l a y s a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e f o r t h e economic and s o c i a l development o f Romania.

Thus, s i n c e t h e ' 5 0 s when t h e f i r s t n a t i o n a l f i v e years p l a n s were i n f u l l p r o g r e s s , an i n c r e a s i n g a t t e n t i o n was g i v e n t o t h e wa te r problem, s t a r t i n g w i t h t h e development o f t h e hydropower p o t e n t i a l .

L a t e r , t h e comprehensive wa te r resources management schemes were s t u d i e d ; d u r i n g 1959 - 1962, t h e mu1 t i purpose wa te r r e s o u r c e s development p l a n s f o r each r i v e r b a s i n and f o r t h e who le c o u n t r y - Water Master P l a n - were p repared .

The necessary m e t h o d o l o g i c a l p rocedures c o n c e r n i n g t h e o u t l i n e o f r i v e r b a s i n development p l a n s and t h e g u i d e l i n e s f o r s o l v i n g t h e imp1 i e d t e c h n i c a l and economic problems were p repared w i t h i n a c l o s e c o o p e r a t i o n o f the i n v o l v e d i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y s p e c i a l i s t s .

Water Master P l a n served as a v a l u a b l e base o f subsequent f i v e yea rs p l a n s f o r water resources development.

A s y s t e m a t i c a c t i v i t y I S

implemented w i t h i n t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s management p l a n n i n g f i e l d c o n s i s t i n g o f p e r i o d i c a l a d a p t i n g o f l o n g - t e r m f o r e c a s t s and o f f ramework r i v e r b a s i n development schemes i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e s o c i a l - e c o n o m i c development f i v e yea rs p l a n s .

T h i s a c t i v i t y , a s w e l l a s t h e p r o j e c t / d e s i g n p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t y , r e p r e s e n t s an a p p r o p r i a t e f ramework t o implement and d e v e l o p t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l t o o l s i n c l u d i n g t h e system a n a l y s i s techn iques as a ma j o r component. The above-ment ioned t e c h n i q u e s a r e a l s o a p p l i e d when p r e p a r i n g and u p d a t i n g l o n g - t e r m r e s e r v o i r o p e r a t i o n r u l e s as w e l l as f o r s u p p o r t i n g o p e r a t i o n d e c i s i o n s o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s sys tem i n t h e day-by-day a c t i v i t y .

F o l l o w i n g t h e c a t a s t r o p h i c f l o o d s o f 1970, w h i c h damaged c e r t a i n a reas i n t h e c o u n t r y , and based on t h e ment ioned Water Master P lan , t h e r e was i n i t i a t e d t h e Mu 1 t i purpose Comprehensive Development P l a n , f o r t h e Upper Mures r i v e r b a s i n , t h e so c a l l e d "Mures P r o j e c t " . T h i s p r o j e c t examined t h e genera l framework o f r e g i o n a l development and t h e r e l a t e d wa te r r e s o u r c e s management p rob lems.

The w ide v a r i e t y o f t h e prob lems, b o t h t e c h n i c a l ones -

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h y d r o l o g y , hyd rogeo logy , geo logy , h y d r o e n g i n e e r i n g , wa te r management, l and r e c l a m a t i o n - and t h o s e c o n c e r n i n g economic,demographic, h o u s i n g and s o c i a l a s p e c t s , r e q u i r e d t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f Romanian pe rsonne l f r o m many s p e c i a l i z e d governmenta l o r g a n i z a t i o n s i n t h e c o u n t r y . An i m p o r t a n t s u p p o r t was f r o m t h e UNDP, c o n s i s t i n g o f t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e by h i g h l y qua l i f i e d U . N . e x p e r t s and f e l l o w s h i p t r a i n i n g programmes g r a n t e d t o Romanian s p e c i a l i s t s i n v o l v e d i n t h e p r o j e c t deve lopment .

The development o f t h e Mures P r o j e c t gave a good o p p o r t u n i t y t o update , e x t e n d and improve t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l t o o l s used f o r r i v e r b a s i n development p rob lems and f o r t h e p r o m o t i o n o f water r e s o u r c e s management systems.

T i r n a v a Mare, as a subbas in w i t h i n t h e Upper Mures b a s i n was a l s o ana lyzed f o r a m u l t i p u r p o s e development, t h e ma jo r and more u r g e n t p rob lems b e i n g r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g , p o p u l a t i o n and economic o b j e c t i v e s p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t f l o o d s , and low f l o w augmen ta t i on t o p e r m i t wa te r p r o v i s i o n f o r p o p u l a t i o n , i n d u s t r y and i r r i g a t i o n .

The s t u d i e s c o n c e r n i n g f e a s i b i l i t y a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r f p r o t e c t i o n c o n s i s t e d m a i n l y o f :

- ana 1 yses o f f h y d r o l o g i c a l pa ramete rs under a c t u a l c o n d i t i o n s and for v a r assumed p o s s i b i 1 i t i e s r a i n f a l l - r u n o f f o c c u r r e n c e d i s t r i b u t i o n ;

t h e ood

ood t h e

o f and

ous

- su rvey o f exper ienced f l o o d damage and de te rm i n a t i on o f p o t e n t i a l f l o o d damages;

- economic f e a s i b i l i t y ana lyses f o r t h e s e l e c t i o n o f f l o o d c o n t r o l scheme.

W i t h i n t h e adopted wa te r r e s o u r c e s development scheme, s t o r a g e r e s e r v o i r s p l a y t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e , an i m p o r t a n t r e d u c t i o n o f m a x i m u m f l o w l e v e l s

a l o n g the r i v e r b e i n g thus ach ieved . Embankment works , upon t h e wa te rs c o n t r o l l e d by r e s e r v o i r s f l o o d f l o w , were adopted o n l y i n l i m i t e d zones, namely t o p r o t e c t human s e t t l e m e n t s .

The pe r fo rmed ana lyses showed a h i g h e f f e c t i v e n e s s f o r t h e proposed f l o o d c o n t r o l f a c i l i t i e s , as t h e expec ted annual average damage w i l l decrease t o l e s s t h a n 4% o f i t s v a l u e i n t h e p r e - e x i s t i n g s i t u a t i o n .

Bes i d e s t h e hyd roeng i neer i ng works f o r f l o o d c o n t r o l , i . e .

bed embankment works, r i v e r r e g u l a t i o n and d e t e n t i o n / t e m p o r a r y r e s e r v o i r s t h e r i v e r bas i n development scheme i nc 1 uded a1 so mu1 t i purpose r e s e r v o i r s w i t h c o n s e r v a t i o n s t o r a g e capac i t y f o r 1 ow f lo r augmenta t ion i n d r y p e r i o d s .

Now, a f t e r t e n yea rs f rom t h e Upper Mures P r o j e c t s t a r t p e r i o d , most o f t h e h y d r o e n g i n e e r i n g s t r u c t u r e s i n t h e T i r n a v a Mare r i v e r b a s i n a r e a l r e a d y under o p e r a t i o n o r i n an advanced s t a g e o f c o m p l e t i o n .

The p l a n n i n g process f o r mu 1 t i purpose wa te r management f a c i l i t i e s i n T i r n a v a Mare r i v e r b a s i n i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e adopted q u e s t i o n a i r e .

2. Planning Stage 1: Project lnitiatation and Prel irninary Planning

Question 1

I n Romania, t h e framework o f a p lanned development i n t h e f i e l d o f water has been i n i t i a l l y d e f i n e d by a Decree i ssued i n 1953 r e g a r d i n g t h e r a t i o n a l u t i l i z a t i o n , management and p r o t e c t i o n o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s . The Decree s t i p u l a t e d t h e p romot ion o f a m u l t i p u r p o s e wa te r management and t h e c o n d i t i o n s imposed f o r a l l t h e water r e l a t e d work .

On t h e b a s i s o f t h e ment ioned Decree, t h e r e have been e l a b o r a t e d t h e f i r s t r i v e r b a s i n s m u l t i p u r p o s e water management p l a n s and i n 1962

t h e l o n g te rm w a t e r resources d e v e l - opment p l a n f o r t h e whole c o u n t r y

L a t e r on, f o r c e r t a i n a r e a s , as r e q u i r e d , t h e wa te r r e s o u r c e s development schemes have been updated.

The p r o m o t i o n o f m u l t i p u r p o s e water management i n t h e T i r n a v a Mare r i ve r bas i n observed t h e above-mentioned g e n e r a l l i n e .

The s o l u t i o n s f o r p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t t h e f l o o d s and, f o r u s e r s ' water supp ly have been e s t a b l i s h e d w i t h i n an i n t e g r a t e d l o n g te rm ana l ys i s .

Thus, u s i n g our own e x p e r i e n c e i n t h e e l a b o r a t i o n o f wa te r resources development p lans and w i t h t h e a s s i s t a n c e o f U . N . - U.N.D.P., d u r i n g 1972-1975 t h e r e has been p repared a comprehensive m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y development p l a n f o r t h e Upper Mures r i v e r b a s i n , t h e so-ca l l e d "Mures P r o j e c t " . T h i s p l a n was a p r o g r e s s f rom t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e r e g i ona 1 p l a n n i n g e 1 emen t s c o n s i d e r a t i o n , w i t h i n t h e r i v e r b a s i n s development, as w e l l as r e g a r d i n g t h e methods t h a t have been used o r deve loped.

The n e c e s s i t y o f i n t e g r a t i n g water r e l a t e d works i n a u n i t a r y c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e complex management and compehensive and r a t i o n a l use o f water resources i s u n d e r l i n e d i n t h e Water Act (Law) adopted i n Romania i n 1974. T h i s Law s t a t e s ( i n a r t . 4) t h e e l a b o r a t i o n o f a framework scheme f o r r i v e r b a s i n s development, as w e l l as ( i n a r t . 30) t h a t p r o j ec t documents f o r t h e h y d r o e n g i n e e r i n g s t r u c t u r e s , or f o r water r e l a t e d works , shou ld t a k e i n t o accoun t t h e s t i p u l a t i o n s o f t h e framework wa te r r e l a t e d development schemes.

The same Law s t a t e s ( i n a r t . 36) t h a t f o r h y d r o e n g i n e e r i n g o r water r e l a t e d p r o j e c t documents t h e r e m u s t be o b t a i n e d t h e agreement o f wa te r management a u t h o r i t y . The Law a l s o s t a t e s ( i n a r t . 37) t h a t by t h e agreement o f water management

a u t h o r i t y , t h e water u s e r s a r e o b l i g e d t o ach ieve t h e works and t o t a k e necessary measures i n o r d e r t o a v o i d d i s t u r b i n g o t h e r uses and t o p r e v e n t damages i n t h e a r e a .

The framework wa te r r e s o u r c e s development schemes, rev iewed e v e r y 5 years , and t h e e l a b o r a t i o n o f t h e wa te r management agreement f o r h y d r o e n g i n e e r i n g s t r u c t u r e s and for any o t h e r wa te r r e l a t e d o b j e c t i v e , c o n s t i t u t e p remises f o r s o l v i n g t h e immediate as we1 as t h e f u t u r e wa te r management p rob lems i n a r a t i o n a l manner n accordance w i t h t h e i r impor tance f o r t h e g e n e r a l development o f t h e c o u n t r y .

Question 2

The c o o r d i n a t i o n o f a c t i v i t i e s f o r t h e development o f t h e r e q u i r e d s t u d i e s i n d i f f e r e n t s t a g e s and p r o j e c t documents, as w e l l as t h e p r o m o t i o n of wa te r r e l a t e d development f a c i l i t i e s has been accompl i shed by t h e Permanent E x e c u t i v e Body o f t h e Upper Mures P r o j e c t .

The e l a b o r a t i o n o f t h e complex wa te r r e s o u r c e s management scheme and t h e necessary methodo logy improvement have been a c h i e v e d b y t h e Research and Des ign I n s t i t u t e f o r Water Resources E n g i n e e r i n g ( I CPGA) .

The w i d e v a r i e t y o f p rob lems, b o t h t e c h n i c a l ones - h y d r o l o g i c ,

h y d r o e n g i n e e r i n g , wa te r management, l a n d r e c l a m a t i o n - and t h o s e c o n c e r n i n g economic, demographic, hous ing and s o c i a l aspec ts , r e q u i r e d t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f Romani an pe rsonne l f rom many s p e c i a l i z e d governmental o r g a n i z a t i o n s .

hyd rogeo logy , geo 1 ogy ,

An i m p o r t a n t s u p p o r t was from t h e UNDP c o n s i s t i n g o f t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e b y h i g h l y q u a l i f i e d U . N . e x p e r t s and f e l l o w s h i p s t r a i n i n g programmes g r a n t e d t o Romanian s p e c i a l i s t s i n v o l v e d i n t h e p r o j e c t development.

S ince t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e Mures P r o j e c t and t h r o u g h o u t t h e

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p r e p a r a t i o n o f p l a n n i n g s t u d i e s and p r o j e c t documents, f o r t h e ma in h y d r o e n g i n e e r i n g s t r u c t u r e s , t h e 1 oca 1 a u t h o r i t i e s have been c o n s u l t e d . These suppor ted t h e p r i o r i t y o f s o l v i n g f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n f o r human s e t t l e m e n t s and t h e economic o b j e c t i v e s , as w e l l as i n t h e p r o v i s i o n o f supp lementary f l o w s f o r p o p u l a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l u s e r s .

Question 3

The Mures P r o j e c t and t h e p r o m o t i o n o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s management f a c i l i t i e s i n t h e T i r n a v a Mare r i v e r b a s i n , as p a r t o f t h i s p r o j e c t , have been i n t i a t e d f o l l o w i n g t h e l i n e o f i n t e g r a t i n g t h e w a t e r management a c t i v i t y i n t h e soc ia l -economic development o f t h e c o u n t r y (see Q u e s t i o n 1 ) .

A t t h e same t i m e , t h e d e c i s i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e i n i t i a t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t has been de te rm ined by t h e f 1 oods o f 1970 wh ich caused i m p o r t a n t damages t o t h e p o p u l a t e d c e n t r e s and t o t h e econom i c o b j e c t i v e s i n t h e a r e a .

Question 4

I n g e n e r a l , t h e r e have n o t been ma j o r r e s t r i c t i v e c o n s t r a i n t s a f f e c t i n g t h e development o f t h e p r o j e c t .

As a r e s t r i c t i v e c o n s t r a i n t , imposed by t h e l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s due t o some p o t e n t i a l damaged l o c a l i t i e s i n t h e T i r n a v a Mare ma jo r r i v e r bed, t h e r e s h o u l d be ment ioned t h e u r g e n t r e q u i r e m e n t t o i n c r e a s e b y l o c a l works t h e degree o f p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t f l o o d s i n t h e p r i n c i p a l human s e t t l e m e n t s . The d imens ion o f t hose l o c a l works had t o be conce ived t o ensure , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e e f f e c t o f c o n s i d e r e d f l o o d c o n t r o l s t o r a g e c a p a c i t i e s , t h e r e q u i r e d degree o f s e c u r i t y .

The achievement o f l o c a l works ( r i v e r beds t r a i n i n g , embankment,

and o t h e r s ) r e p r e s e n t s a t r a n s i t i o n s o l u t i o n a c h i e v i n g t o a g r e a t e x t e n t t h e a im o f p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t f l o o d s .

The p rob lem has been s o l v e d th rough c o o p e r a t i o n among s p e c i a l i s t s , l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s and t h e dec i s ion -makers . Thus, i n some areas where t h e m ino r r i v e r bed had become v e r y na r row as a r e s u l t o f u rban development i n t h e p a s t a seve re s y s t e m a t i z a t i o n o f t h e b u i 1 t area was necessary .

Some o f t h e embankment and r i v e r bed r e g u l a t i o n works have been completed i n 1974 - 1975.

Now by t h e achievement o f t h e p r i n c i p a l f l o o d c o n t r o l s t o r a g e and d e t e n t i o n p o o l s , p r o p e r degrees o f s e c u r i t y a g a i n s t f l o o d s have been avo i ded .

Question 5

The e x i s t i n g methodology for t h e Water Master P lan , f o r t h e framework wa te r r e a t e d development schemes and f o r t h e p l a n n i n g o f t h e wa te r managements s stem served as a s t a r t i n g p o i n t and t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f poss ibe improvements d u r i n g t h e p r o j e c t development has been dec i ded .

The necessary improvements r e f e r m a i n l y t o t h e e x t e n s i o n and t h e r e f i nement o f mathemat ica l models f o r f l o o d occur rence, t o hyd rau l i c e s t i m a t i o n s , and e s t i m a t i o n s o f wa te r management from a q u a n t i t a t i v e and water q u a l i t y p o i n t o f v i e w .

3. Planning Stage 2: Data Gathering and Processing

Question 6

W i t h i n t h e p r o j e c t t h e r e have been used b e s i d e s h y d r o l o g i c a l da ta , d a t a r e g a r d i ng f ' l ood damages, demographical d a t a , and elements r e g a r d i n g t h e economic development o f t he a r e a and r e g a r d i n g water requ i remen ts . These d a t a a r e d i scussed w i t h Q u e s t i o n 7 .

Question 7

A n a l y s i s o f f l o o d h y d r o l o g i c a l

-167-

parameters was per fo rmed i n two ways: f i r s t , by p r o c e s s i n g t h e

c o n t i n u o u s o b s e r v a t i o n p e r i o d o f 20 yea rs supplemented w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t h i s t o r i c a l f l o o d e v e n t from a p e r i o d o f ove r

ma themat i ca l m o d e l i n g o f r a i n f a l l - r u n o f f p rocess , f o r r e 1 e v a n t s c e n a r i o s r e g a r d i n g t h e r a i n f a l l d i s t r i b u t i o n i n v a r i o u s r i v e r b a s i n a reas .

observed ava i l a b l e d a t a (a

100 y e a r s ) , and second, by

The f l o o d hydrographs and t h e peak f l o w s , r e s p e c t i v e l y maximum l e v e l s , were thus o b t a i n e d f o r t h e n a t u r a l f l o w reg ime and se rved as base i n p u t d a t a i n t h e f e a s i b i l i t y a n a l y s i s o f t h e s t r u c t u r a l f l o o d c o n t r o l a l t e r n a t i v e s .

As wate r r e s o u r c e s d a t a t h e r e have been used a s e r i e s o f average mon th l y f l o w s f o r t h e p e r i o d 1950 -1970 c o n s i d e r e d as f i t t e d f o r t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f wa te r management ba lance r e g a r d i n g t h e water uses .

For t h e s y n t h e t i c g e n e r a t i o n o f h y d r o l o g i c a l d a t a (as average annua l f l o w s and average mon th l y f l o w s , w i t h and w i t h o u t c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f s e l f - c o r r e l a t i o n ) e x i s t i n g models have been adopted f rom r e l e v a n t p u b l i c a t i o n s and were e l a b o r a t e d i n t o computer programmes. The low degree o f r e g u l a r i z a t i o n o f t h e examined s t o r a g e r e s e r v o i r s d i d n o t r e q u i r e t h e use o f s y n t h e t i c f l o w g e n e r a t i o n models f o r t h e w a t e r management e s t i m a t i o n s .

The d a t a r e g a r d i n g water needs f o r i r r i g a t i o n have been de te rm ined f o r t h e p e r i o d 1950 -1970, as average mon th l y v a l u e s u s i n g t h e p o t e n t i a l e v a p o t r a n s p i r a t i o n method and t h e s o i l wa te r ba lance. A mathemat i ca l model f o r t h e s y n t h e t i c g e n e r a t i o n o f i r r i g a t i o n water need v a l u e s on t h e b a s i s o f t empera tu re and r a i n f a l l s d a t a has been t r i e d , b u t t h e r e s u l t s have n o t been s a t i s f a c t o r y .

The a n a l y s i s o f f l o o d damage s t a r t e d w i t h t h e survey o f f l o o d

damages e x p e r i e n c e d d u r i n g t h e f l o o d s o f May 1970 when on t h e T i r n a v a Mare t h e r e were r e c o r d e d

o c c u r r e n c e p r o b a b i l i t y . maximum l e v e l s c l o s e t o 1%

The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f damages a l o n g t h e r i v e r showed a ma jo r c o n c e n t r a t i o n i n u rban c e n t r e s , t h e maximum w e i g h t s b e l o n g i n g t o i n d u s t r i a l u n i t s (64% o f t o t a l l osses ) and f o r s u b s t r u c t u r e s and r e s i d e n c e s (34% o f t o t a l ) .

Based on t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e 1970 f l o o d damages and on p o t e n t i a l damages, g a t h e r e d by i n q u i r y e s t i m a t i o n s , f o r two f l o o d l e v e l s o f 5% and 0 . 5 - 0.1% o c c u r r e n c e p r o a b i l i t y , t h e "maximurn l e v e l / p e a k f l o w - f l o o d damage" r e l a t i o n s h i p s were de te rm ined .

The "damage - p r o b a b i 1 i t y " f u n c t i o n s c o u l d be o b t a i n e d by comb in ing t h e " f l o w - damage" and t h e "maximum f l o w - o c c u r r e n c e p r o b a b i 1 i t y " r e 1 a t i onsh i ps ; f u r t h e r m o r e t h e annual ave rage p o t e n t i a l damages were de te rm ined i n t h e m a j o r a reas f o r t h e g i v e n / e x i s t i n g s i t u a t i o n s and f o r t h e f u t u r e development p a t t e r n o f t h e a reas , tak . ing i n t o accoun t t h e economic g rowth and d i s c o u n t i n g t h e damage va 1 ues .

Question 8

The d a t a c o l l e c t i o n methods have been e s t a b l i s h e d on t h e b a s i s o f e n g i n e e r i n g ana lyses . As t h e s t u d y p e r i o d for t h e ave rage m o n t h l y f l o w s , t h e r e has been t a k e n t h e 1950 -1970 p e r i o d w i t h more r e l i a b l e d a t a and w i t h a s u f f i c i e n t l e n g t h f o r t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e wa te r r e s o u r c e s - w a t e r demand b a l a n c e .

Question 9

The e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a has been made on t h e b a s i s o f t h e ana lyses pe r fo rmed by t h e s p e c i a l i s t s and p r e s e n t e d w i t h i n a p3ne l o r g a n i z e d b y t h e Permanent E x e c u t i v e Body o f t h e p r o j e c t , w i t h t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f U . N . e x p e r t s .

-1.08-

Question 10

Among o t h e r s , i n t h e a n a l y s e s r e g a r d i n g t h e r e g i s t e r e d f l o o d hydrographs i n t h e subbas in , t h e r e has been used t h e s i m u l a t i o n model o f f l o o d waves r o u t i ng and c o m p o s i t i o n , namely UNDA /l/, a l s o used a f t e r w a r d s i n t h e e s t i m a t i o n of t h e f l o o d c o n t r o l scheme a l t e r n a t i v e s .

4. Planning Stage 3: Formulation and Screening of Project AI ternat i ves

Question 1 1

Roughly, fo r t h e f o r m u l a t i o n and s c r e e n i n g o f water management a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t h e T i r n a v a Mare R i v e r b a s i n t h e r e have been used about 60 man-months and 300 hours o f computer f a c i l i t i e s ( I B H 360 and I C L 1905)

Question 12

The p r o m o t i o n o f m u l t i p u r p o s e wa te r resources development i n t h e T i r n a v a Mare R i v e r Bas in , as w e l l as t h e who le Mures p r o j e c t , has been s u p p o r t e d b y t h e Romanian Government w i t h equipment, f i n a n c i a l means and computer f a c i l i t i e s (see Q u e s t i o n 2) .

Question 13

As was men t ioned i n Q u e s t i o n 2 , s i n c e t h e i n i t i a t i o n and a l o n g w i t h t h e p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t y f o r t h e p r i nc i pa 1 hydroeng i neer i ng s t r u c t u r e s t h e r e has been permanent c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e 1 oca 1 a u t h o r i t i es and o t h e r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f t h e p u b l i c i n t h e a rea .

Question 14

There have been examined 7 major groups o f a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r m u l t i p u r p o s e wa te r management and a l o t o f s u b a l t e r n a t i v e s d e t e r m i n e d by hypotheses o f soc io -economic deve 1 opment , h y d r o l o g i c a l d a t a ( f l o o d o c c u r r e n c e p a t t e r n s ) , and t e c h n i ca 1 parameters of t h e

s t r u c t u r e s i n cons i dered a l t e r n a t i v e s o f t h e wa te r resources development scheme.

The a l t e r n a t i v e s were proposed by t e c h n i c i a n s / e x p e r t s and e s t a b l i s h e d t h r o u g h d i s c u s s i o n s o r g a n i z e d by t h e Permanent E x e c u t i v e Body - P . E . B . - w i t l l t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f UN - UNDP e x p e r t s w i t h i n c o n s u l t i n g m i s s i o n s .

Question 75:

The h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e dec i s ion -mak ing process has r e s u l t e d f r o m t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and development p a t t e r n o f t h e p r o j e c t , as ment ioned i n Q u e s t i o n 2 .

The p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e n a t i v e s was made b y spec i n s t i t u t e s and by t h e P.E.B t h e a s s i s t a n c e o f UN e x p e r t s .

The t e c h n i ca 1 o p t i ons been t a k e n by t h e p r e l app rova l o f p roposed s o l u t i n v o l v e d m i n i s t r i e s i n a g r i c

a 1 t e r - a1 i z e d

w i t h

have m i na ry ons a t 1 t u r e ,

w a t e r , f o r e s t r y and r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g prob lems.

The f i n a l d e c i s i o n was t a k e n a t governmental l e v e l t h a t approved, f o r each h y d r o e n g i n e e r i n g s t r u c t u r e (bu t t a k i n g i n t o accoun t t h e genera l framework, t h e t e c h n i c a l s o l u t i o n s ) , t h e f i n a n c i n g and m a t e r i a l s means and necessary manpower.

The t r a d e - o f f a s p e c t s have been t r e a t e d by q u a l i t a t i v e i m p l i c i t e s t i m a t i o n s . Thus, f o r some s t o r a g e r e s e r v o i r s t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e dam's c o n s t r u c t i o n and those concern ing t h e s t o r a g e / r e s e r v o i r a rea d i d n o t f i t , such t h a t t h e examina t ion o f l o c a t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s was imposed. There have been p r e f e r r e d l o c a t i o n s w i t h more d i f f i c u l t c o n d i t i o n s f o r t h e dam's c o n s t r u c t i o n s b u t more f a v o u r a b l e ones f o r t h e s t o r a g e a rea .

Question 16:

There a r e n o t add i t i ona l ment ions o t h e r t h a n t h o s e o f Q u e s t i o n 4 .

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Question 17:

The development o f t h e Mures P r o j e c t gave a good o p p o r t u n i t y t o update , ex tend and improve t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l t o o l s used f o r r i v e r b a s i n development problems and f o r t h e p r o m o t i o n of water r e s o u r c e s management systems.

The m a t hema t i ca 1 models, l a r g e l y a p p l i e d w i t h i n t h e p r o j e c t , were t h o s e o f q u a n t i t a t i v e wa te r management ( f o r f l o o d c o n t r o l and f o r t h e wa te r management b a l a n c e ) .

The UNDA mathematic s i m l J l a t i o n model and t h e a s s o c i a t e d computer programme / 1 / , based on t h e numer i ca 1 i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e Sa in t -Venan t e q u a t i o n system, was a p p l i e d a l o n g t h e who le development o f t h e p r o j e c t t o p e r f o r m t h e ana lyses o f t h e h y d r a u l i c and f l o o d con t r o 1 parameters ( r e s e r v o i r r o u t i n g , f l o o d waves c o m p o s i t i o n and channel r o u t i n g ) .

T h i s model, p repared and a p p l i e d i n Romania p r e v i o u s l y , has been r e f i n e d d u r i n g t h e Mures P r o j e c t .

As t h e UNDA s i m u l a t i o n model r e q u i r e s as i n p u t da ta a s e t o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c parameters r e p r e s e n t i n g i n f a c t unknown q u a n t i t i e s o f t h e problem, t h e number o f a 1 t e r n a t i ves t o be examined was t o o h i g h . Moreover, due t o t h e f a c t t h a t the UNDA model b e i n g r a t h e r s o p h i s t i c a t e d , i s computer t i m e consuming, o u t o f t h e numerous p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s , o n l y a few ones were s e l e c t e d f o r such a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s . The P r e l i m i n a r y s c r e e n i n g o f a l t e r n a t i v e s was ach ieved m o s t l y based on h e u r i s t i c ana 1 yses and a p p r o x i m a t i v e / e x p e d i t i o u s p rocedures .

The s i m p l i f i e d s i m u l a t i o n model PRAT was deve loped i n t h i s r e s p e c t , based on l e s s a c c u r a t e c o m p u t a t i o n p rocedures , b u t o f f er i ng h i g h e f f i c i e n c y as w e l l as r a p i d i t y .

T h i s model per fo rms f l o o d r o u t i n g t h r o u g h r e s e r v o i r s , o r

channe ls and f l o o d waves c o m p o s i t i o n as w e l l . Computa t ion p rocedures used w i t h i n t h e s i m p l i f i e d model a r e t h e P u l s method fo r r e s e r v o i r r o u t i n g and Musk i ngum and K a l i n i n - M i l i u k o v methods f o r r i v e r bed r o u t i n g / 8 , 1 8 / .

The p o s s i b l e c o n j u n c t i v e use o f UNDA and PRAT models i s t o be ment ioned. As t h e input d a t a f o r t h e UNDA model i m p l i e s i m p o r t a n t t e c h n i c a l and f i n a n c i a l e f f o r t , t h e PRAT model i s used t o f a c i l i t a t e t h e s e l e c t i o n o f zones f o r more d e t a i l e d a n a l y s e s . On t h e o t h e r hand, when t h e UNDA model can be a p p l i e d , t h a t i s v e r y u s e f u l even i n p r e l i m i n a r y s t u d i e s t o h e l p t h e c a l i b r a t i o n o f t h e PRAT model parameters , an i m p o r t a n t i n c r e a s e o f PRAT r e s u l t s accu racy b e i n g o b t a i n e d . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s more e f f i c i e n t t o do p r e l i m i n a r y s c r e e n i n g f o r t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s t o be d e t a i l e d by UNDA model, a h i g h e r o p e r a t i v i t y i n s o l v i n g t h e p rob lem and an i m p o r t a n t s a v i n g o f computer t i m e and funds b e i n g ach ieved .

I n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e use o f t h e men t ioned s i m u l a t i o n models a p r o g r e s s was ach ieved i n p r e p a r i n g r a i n f a l l - r u n o f f models/ 5 , 2 3 / .

Bes ides t h e PRAT s i m p l i f i e d s i m u l a t i o n model, f o r t h e p r e l i m i n a r y s c r e e n i n g o f s t r u c t u r a l a l t e r n a t i v e s (and t h e r e f o r e f o r t h e sys tem parameters s e l e c t i o n ) , a p r e o p t i m i z a t i o n mode 1 was exper imented on, based on t h e s e p a r a b l e 1 i n e a r programming a 1 gor i thm /8 / .

T h i s model aims t o f i n d o u t t h e most f a v o u r a b l e Combinat ions o f t h e l o c a l f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n works i n t h e damaged zones and s t o r a g e r e s e r v o i r

waves capac i t y f o r a l l e v i a t i o n .

f l o o d

The a n a l y s i s i s p e r f o r m e d on t h e maximum f l o w i n each zone t o b e p r o t e c t e d , w i t h o u t t a k i n g i n t o accoun t t h e e x p l i c i t b e h a v i o u r o f t h e system by t i m e i n t e r v a l s w i t h i n t h e f l o o d wave.

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I n p u t d a t a f o r t h e model a r e :

- c o s t f u n c t i o n s ( i n v e s t m e n t c o s t p r e s e n t v a l u e p l u s t h e sum o f annual e x p e n d i t u r e s c o n v e r t e d t o p r e s e n t v a l u e s ) f o r l o c a l p r o t e c t i o n i n each zone t o be p r o t e c t e d , depend ing on t h e maximum f l o w i n t h e r e s p e c t i v e zone:

- c o s t f u n c t i o n s ( i n v e s t m e n t c o s t p r e s e n t v a l u e p l u s t h e sum o f annua 1 p r e s e n t a1 l e v i a on max r e s e r v o

- exp ress s t o r a g e f l o w i n

e x p e n d i t u r e s c o n v e r t e d t o va 1 ues) f o r f 1 ood waves

i o n b y r e s e r v o i r s , depend ing mum f l o w r e d u c t i o n i n t h e r s i t e :

i n f l u e n c e o f c o e f f i c i e n t s , ng t h e r e d u c t i o n e f f e c t o f

r e s e r v o i r on t h e maximum each zone t o be p r o t e c t e d :

- maximum f l o w v a l u e s i n each zone t o b e p r o t e c t e d , f o r t h e o c c u r r e n c e p r o b a b i l i t y c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d p r o t e c t i o n l e v e l / d e g r e e .

The model r e s u l t s a r e t h e maximum f l o w r e d u c t i o n i n t h e r e s e r v o i r s i t e s and t h e m o d i f i e d maximum f l o w v a l u e s i n each zone t o b e p r o t e c t e d , m i n i m i z i ng t h e econom i c e f f o r t i n s t o r a g e r e s e r v o i r s and i n l o c a l p r o t e c t i o n works .

For t h e wa te r management b a l a n c e t h e r e have been used m o s t l y e x i s t i n g mathemat ic s imu 1 a t i on models examin ing i n m o n t h l y v a l u e s t h e b e h a v i o u r o f w a t e r management systems up t o g e t t i n g t h e d e s i r e d pa ramete rs ( t h e achievement o f t h e necessary degrees f o r m e e t i n g w a t e r needs f o r d i f f e r e n t c a t e g o r i e s o f u s e r s ) .

As r e l a t e d t o t h e s t u d y o f t e c h n i c a l parameters o f m u l t i p u r p o s e wa te r management systems, t h e s i m u l a t i o n - o p t i m i z a t i o n model SIMOPT / 1 1 / and t h e a s s o c i a t e d computer programme were deve loped.

The SIMOPT model, r e p r e s e n t i n g an improved and ex tended a d a p t a t i o n o f p r e v i o u s p rocedures deve loped b y I a n K i n g , A . F i l i p k o v s k i and J .

K i n d l e r w i t h i n the V i s t u l a p r o j e c t (1 969- 197 1 ) f o r t h e use o f O u t - o f - K i l t e r network a l g o r i t h m / l 5 , 16, 28/ , does p e r m i t , for example:

- t h e e x p l i c i t a n a l y s i s of w a t e r f l o w w i t h i n t h e r i v e r bas in /wa te r management system:

- t a k i n g i n t o accoun t t h e wa te r q u a l i t y p r o t e c t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s , as a d i l u t i o n f l o w c o n d i t i o n , downstream t h e r e t u r n f r o m t h e wa te r u s e r s :

- c o n s i d e r a t i o n , w i t h i n t h e t o t a l s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y , o f a v a r i a b l e c o n s e r v a t i v e c a p a c i t y d u r i n g t h e year months, i n comp lemen ta r i t y w i t h t h e f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n one;

- c o m p u t a t i o n t h e f a c t u a l d e g r e e / p r o b a b i l i t y o f mee t ing t h e w a t e r management r e q u i rements, expressed as f requency , as d u r a t i o n and as q u a n t i t y (volume) as w e l l .

T h i s model i s now a p p l i e d i n 6 r i v e r b a s i n s o r subbas ins i n Romani a .

W i t h i n t h e p r o j e c t t h e r e have been p r e p a r e d a l s o mathemat ica l models f o r w a t e r q u a l i t y problems: one o f them i s a s i m u l a t i o n model f o r t h e r m i c p o l l u t i o n , wh ich was a p p l i e d a f t e r some r e f i n e m e n t s ,

Question 18:

A l l t h o s e ment ioned models were t e s t e d w i t h i n t h e p r o j e c t .

The c a l i b r a t i o n and v e r i f i c a t i o n , a s a p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r an e f f i c i e n t use o f t h e models i n t h e s t u d i e d problem, needed i n t h e case o f t h e UNDA model d e t a i l e d d a t a concern ing t h e topography and t h e n a t u r e o f r i v e r beds ( i n c l u d i n g l ong and c ross p r o f i l e s , and roughness, and da ta r e g a r d i n g t h e reco rded f l o o d hydrographs .

The UNDA model was improved w i t h i n t h e Mures P r o j e c t , and t h e achievement o f t h e SIMOPT model needed a d a p t a t i o n s and e x t e n s i o n s o f

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o t h e r s i m i l a r models, a s p e c t s ment ioned w i t h i n Q u e s t i o n 17 .

Question 19:

The f i n a l s o l u t i on was e s t a b l i s h e d and approved f o r each ' h y d r o e n g i n e e r i n g s t r u c t u r e t a k i n g i n t o accoun t i t s a r t i c u l a t i o n w i t h t h e framework p l a n .

The p a r t i c i p a t i o n and t h e r o l e o f t h e t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t s , t h e d,ecis ion-makers and t h e pub1 i c were shown w i t h i n Q u e s t i o n 15.

Question 20:

By i t s n a t u r e , t he p r o j e c t needed a t i g h t c o o p e r a t i o n between t h e e x p e r t s o f seve ra l f i e l d s : h y d r o l o g y , h y d r o e n g i n e e r i n g , demography, hous i ng , r e g i ona 1 p l a n n i n g , water management.

The necessary s t r u c t u r e has been p r o v i d e d b y t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e p r o j e c t o f t h e Water Resouces Management I n s t i t u t e - I C P G A - and o f o t h e r i n s t i t u t e s r e l a t e d t o t h e g i v e n prob lem.

The c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h i n t h e p r o j e c t showed t h e impor tance o f an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y t e r m i n o l o g y as w e l l as t h e m a j o r r o l e o f t h e workshops i n o r d e r t o c l a r i f y and approach t h e pos i t i ons o f t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n v o l v e d i n t h e p r o j e c t development.

5. Planning Stage 4: Development of Final Project Specifications

Question 21.

The f i n a l s o l u t i o n pa ramete rs were de te rm ined u s i n g s i m u l a t i o n models, i . e . t h e UNDA model f o r f l o o d c o n t r o l aspec ts and f a c i l i t i e s and t h e water management b a l a n c e models f o r t h e c o n s e r v a t i v e s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y o f r e s e r v o i r s f o r t h e consuming water u s e r s .

The e x i s t i n g models, p r e p a r e d i n Romania b e f o r e t h e Mures P r o j e c t , have been improved d u r i n g t h e p r o j e c t , as shown w i t h i n Q u e s t i o n 17.

As a base i n t h e e l a b o r a t i o n and t h e improvement o f t h e ma themat i ca l models one may m e n t i o n as more i m p o r t a n t t h e books and papers/23, 2 5 , 2 9 / f o r f l o o d c o n t r o l and /15, 25, 28/ as concerns q u a n t i t a t i v e w a t e r management ba lance compu ta t i on .

The t e c h n i c a l l i t e r a t u r e t h a t was mos t used i n c l u d e d t h e f o l l o w i n g :

CHIRIAC, V . , e t a l . - L a c u r i de acumulare (S to rage r e s e r v o i r s ) , E d i t . C E R E S , B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1976.

DIACONU, C . , e t a l . - Some p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r r e c o n s t r u c t i n g t h e d a t a c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o n a t u r a l h y d r o l o g i c a l c o n d i t i o n s - Casebook on methods o f c o m p u t a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e changes i n t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l reg ime o f r i v e r b a s i n s due t o human a c t i v i t y . P r o j e c t 5.1. - I.H.P., Unesco, 1980.

TEODORESCU, I . , e t a l . - Gospodar i rea Ape lo r . (Water Management) , Ed i t u r a C E R E S , B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1973.

M A A S , A . - Des ign o f Water Resources Systems. Ha r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y Press , Cambridge, 1962

The use o f ma themat i ca l models f o r f i n a l p r o j e c t s p e c i f i c a t i o n s needed abou t 20 man-months and 50 hours e l e c t r o n i c computer t i m e ( I B M 360 and I C L 1905).

Due t o i t s per fo rmances, t h e UNDA model i s r e c o g n i z e d as t h e model w i t h t h e l a r g e s t a p p l i c a t i o n i n t h e development o f pa ramete rs f o r f l o o d c o n t r o l systems.

The wa te r r e s o u r c e s - w a t e r needs b a l a n c e s i m u l a t i o n models a r e a l s o used, a c c o r d i n g t o t h e examined problem, b u t f o r w a t e r r e s o u r c e s management p rob lems as r e g a r d s t h e m e e t i n g o f u s e r s ' w a t e r needs, t h e SIMOPT model i s l a r g e l y a p p l i e d because o f t h e m u l t i p l e aspec ts t h a t can be accounted f o r and due t o t h e h i g h e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e

o p t i m i z a t i o n a l g o r i t h m used w i t h i n t h e computer programme.

Question 22:

The i n v e s t m e n t s recove ry d u r a t i o n , t h e b e n e f i t - c o s t r a t i o and t h e i n t e r n a l r a t e o f r e t u r n were used as s e l e c t i o n c r i t e r i a f o r f l o o d c o n t r o l a l t e r n a t i v e compar ison.

A l l t h e ment ioned c r i t e r i a use, as base, t h e b e n e f i t v a l u e s t o be o b t a i n e d by a c h i e v i n g t h e proposed f l o o d c o n t r o l measures and t h e s t r u c t u r a l f a c i l i t e s .

R e c o g n i z i n g t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f d i r e c t and secondary f l o o d damages, m u l t i - c r i t e r i a a n a l y s i s i s v e r y u s e f u 1 , i n c l u d i n g s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s f o r a range v a l u e s o f a s e r i e s o f parameters and f a c t o r s such as t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e , hypotheses on t h e r a t e o f economic development i n t h e zone, and t h e s t u d y p e r i o d f o r wh ich t h e economic e f f i c i e n c y a n a l y s i s i s per fo rmed.

Question 23:

We d i d n o t make any p roper r i s k or impact a n a l y s i s .

For t h e chosen f l o o d s c o n t r o l s o l u t i o n t h e r e were de termined t h e maximum f l o w s ( l e v e l s ) i n t h e n a t u r a l reg ime and i n t h e developed r e g i m e ( m o d i f i e d by works) f o r t he e x c e e d i n g p r o b a b i l i t y o f 5%, 1% and O , l % .

As concerns t h e r i v e r b a s i n development impact , i n o r d e r t o p r e v e n t u n d e s i r e d s i d e e f f e c t s , t h e p r o v i s i o n o f a minimum a c c e p t a b l e f l o w , downstream o f t h e s t o r a g e dams, was t a k e n i n t o account and s o i l e r o s i o n p r e v e n t i o n measures and works i n the s t o r a g e watersheds were proposed.

Question 24:

The f i n a l s o l u t i o n was chosen on t h e e lements and i n f o r m a t i o n g i v e n by t h e a n a l y s i s made a c c o r d i n g t o q u e s t i o n s 2 1 - 2 3 .

The t r a d e - o f f aspec ts were ment ioned a t Q u e s t i o n 15.

We d i d n o t make any mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i o n ana 1 y s i s .

The p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f t h e dec is ion-makers was p r e s e n t e d a t Q u e s t i o n 2 and Q u e s t i o n 15.

The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and t h e development p a t t e r n o f t h e p r o j e c t c o n s t i t u t e d a proper framework and a f a v o u r a b l e premise i n p r e p a r i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s and f o r t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g process .

The mutua l u n d e r s t a n d i n g and t h e c o o p e r a t i o n between e x p e r t s and dec is ion-makers may h e l p d e f i n i t e l y t h e development o f t h e p l a n n i n g process o f mu1 t i purpose water resources management.

Question 25:

E x p l i c i t t r a d e - o f f a n a l y s e s were n o t made. One had i n v i e w measures and waste water t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s o f r e t u r n f l o w s f r o m t h e use rs , and t h e i r c o s t s i n o r d e r t o p r o v i d e the r e q u i r e d water q u a l i t y parameters were e v a l u a t e d .

The minimum a c c e p t a b l e f l o w , i n r i v e r bed downstream m u l t i p l e - purpose s to rage , c o u l d be p r o v i d e d by t h e t r a n s f e r o f t h e r e q u i r e d amount o f water f o r t h e use rs l o c a t e d downstream.

Question 26:

The u t i l i s e d models he lped t o p r e p a r e t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s o f r i v e r b a s i n development . The f i n a l s o l u t i o n was e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e dec is ion-makers ' and t h e t e c h n i c i a n s / e x p e r t s , t a k i n g a l s o i n t o account some add i t i ona 1 i n f o r m a t i o n . T h i s was because t h e model i n p u t d a t a (water needs, and e v a l u a t i o n o f p o t e n t i a l f l o o d damages among o t h e r s ) a r e a f f e c t e d by u n c e r t a i n t y .

Questions 27 and 28

As shown i n Q u e s t i o n 15 t h e Permanent E x e c u t i v e Body o r g a n i z e d t h e p r e p a r a t i o n and t h e d e c i s i o n s j u s t i f i c a t i on th rough t h e s p e c i a l i z e d i n s t i t u t e s , and p r e s e n t e d t h e s o l u t i o n t o t h e i nvo 1 ved m i n i s t r i e s and f o r government a p p r o v a l f o r each s t r u c t u r e s e p a r a t e l y , b u t t a k i n g i n t o accoun t i t s a r t i c u l a t i o n t o t h e framework p l a n .

The necessary inves tment f u n d s , m a t e r i a l s and manpower were i n s u r e d b y t h e a p p r o v a l o f each s o l u t i o n .

Question 29:

The ana lyses o f m u l t i p u r p o s e wa te r management i n t h e T i r n a v a Hare r i v e r b a s i n as w e l l as i n o t h e r r i v e r b a s i n s were made i n 1980 when t h e r i v e r bas i n deve 1 opmen t framework schemes were up - to -da te . I n t h e T i r n a v a Hare r i v e r b a s i n t h e r e were no problems o f w a t e r sho r tages o r f l o o d damages, i n t h e zones where t h e wa te r management f a c i l i t i e s were comple ted .

The p e r i o d i c a l update o f t h e framework schemes a s s o c i a t e d t o w i t h t h e f i v e - y e a r p l a n s and t h e e l a b o r a t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t documents c o n s t i t u t e s a f a v o u r a b l e framework f o r t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f m e t h o d o l o g i c a l improvement - when p romot ing t h e new m u l t i p u r p s e wa te r management f a c i l i t i e s - adapted t o t h e d i f f e r e n t s p e c i f i c cases.

D u r i n g t h e most r e c e n t yea rs , w i t h i n s e v e r a l research works r e g a r d i n g t h e wa te r resources development p l a n s i n t h e T i r n a v a Mare r i v e r subbas in , supplementary ana lyses were made concern ing some i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n aspec ts , such as, for example, t h e f o l l o w i n g :

a. Q u a n t i t a t i v e wa te r management - water qua l i t y

p r o t e c t i o n .

The necessary d i l u t i o n f l o w s w i t h i n t h e r i v e r beds t o meet t h e r e q u i r e d wa te r q u a l i t y s tandards a c c o r d i n g t o e x i s t i n g r e g u l a t i o n s were c o n s i d e r e d as t h e s t a r t i n g p o i n t .

The a n a l y s i s was focussed on t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e above-ment ioned d i l u t i o n f l o w s upon t h e r e s e r v o i r s o p e r a t i n g reg ime (behav iou r ) and upon t h e a c t u a l degrees o f m e e t i n g q u a n t i t a t i v e wa te r demands.

The demands o b t a i n e d i n t h i s way s e r v e as a b a s i s f o r p e r f o r m i n g c o m p a r a t i v e ana lyses o f w a t e r q u a l i t y c o n t r o l a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r each c o n s i d e r e d zone e.g: was te wa te r t r e a t m e n t a t ups t ream w a t e r u s e r s , decrease o f raw waste l o a d i n r e t u r n w a t e r s b y i n t e r v e n t i o n i n t e c h n o l o g i e s a t ups t ream w a t e r u s e r s , wa te r t r e a t m e n t a t a n a l y s e d w a t e r use rs , and i n c r e a s e of t h e d i l u t i o n f l o w s w i t h i n t h e r i v e r beds by an a p p r o p r i a t e r e s e r v o i r s o p e r a t i n g system.

b . Improvement o f wa te r -ene rgy t r a d e - o f f i n a thermo power p l a n t

An a n a l y s i s was pe r fo rmed on t h e p o s s i b i 1 i t y o f d e c r e a s i ng t h e r e c y c l e d amount o f wa te r w i t h i n a c o o l i n g c i r c u i t by i n c r e a s i n g t h e i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y o f t h e w a t e r s u p p l y system, t a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t t h e r i v e r f l o w reg ime v a r i a t i o n as m o d i f i e d by t h e new proposed r e s e r v o i r s .

The r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d i n t h i s way se rve as a b a s i s f o r examin ing t h e economic o p p o r t u n i t y o f p r o m o t i n g t h e m o d e r n i z i n g o f t h e works o f wa te r s u p p l y system, t a k i n g i n t o accoun t t h e necessary c o s t s i n t h e c o n s i d e r e d m o d e r n i z i n g a l t e r n a t i v e v e r s u s t h e energy saved i n r e c y c l i n g t h e c o o l i n g w a t e r .

6. Planning Stage 5: Project Design

Question 30:

The d e s i g n documents ( p r o j e c t des i gn) have been a c h i e v e d b y s p e c i a l i z e d groups o f t h e same i n s t i t u t e - I C P G A - i n v o l v e d i n t h e e l a b o r a t i o n o f t h e r i v e r b a s i n development scheme and i n s u r n g t h e development of s tages 1 - 4.

-174-

The c o n n e c t i o n between t h e mu 1 t i p u r pose wa te r management e x p e r t s and h y d r o t e c h n i c i a n s ( h y d r a u l i c eng inee r i ng) e x p e r t s

became permanent, when t h e two groups were e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e f u n c t i o n a l e lemen ts o f t h e des igned s t r u c t u r a l f a c i l i t i e s .

Thus, r e l a t e d e lements (e.g. t h e w a t e r i n t a k e and t h e s p i l l w a y and o u t l e t f a c i l i t i e s o f s t o r a g e r e s e r v o i r s ) had t o be c o n c e i v e d so t h a t t h e c o u l d t a k e i n t o accoun t t h e o p e r a t i o n r u l e s , t o p r o v i d e t h e f o r achievement o f water management pa ramete rs adopted t o j u s t i f y t h e p r o m o t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t .

System ana lyses t e c h n i q u e s and p rocedures a r e a p p l i e d nowadays on an i n c r e a s i n g s c a l e w i t h i n ICPGA (The Research and Des ign I n s t i t u t e f o r Water Resources Eng ineer ing ) and o t h e r agenc ies ( i n s t i t u t e s ) r e l a t e d t o w a t e r f i e l d a c t i v i t y , as w e l l as w i t h i n t h e l o c a l r i v e r b a s i n s a u t h o r i t i e s when p r o m o t i n g t h e water r e s o u r c e s systems and e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e i r l o n g - t e r m and r e a l - t i m e o p e r a t i o n r u l e s .

Thus, t h e f o l l o w i n g t e c h n i q u e s a r e used i n t h e p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t y t o e s t a b l i s h t h e d e s i g n pa ramete rs o f t h e wa te r r e s o u r c e system:

- t h e B l C A D comput ing programs package (Du lcu 1978) i s used t o c r e a t e , m a i n t a i n , upda te and o p e r a t e t h e d a t a base o f w a t e r use i n v e n t o r y ; i t i s a p p l i e d nowadays w i t h i n f o u r o f t h e t o t a l o f n i n e r i v e r b a s i n s :

- t h e more s o p h i s t i c a t e d UNDA model ( A m a f t i e s e i 1 9 7 6 ) , a p p l i e d i n a l m o s t a l l t h e b a s i n s , and t h e f a s t e r , s i m p l i f i e d model, PRAT, a p p l i e d i n 20% o f t h e r i v e r b a s i n s , a r e used f o r f l o o d c o n t r o l a n a l y s e s ;

- t h e s i m u l a t i o n GRINGO, HOMBRE and ART I ZAN (Amaf t i ese i 1984) mode ls , used t o compute wa te r resources -wa te r demands b a l a n c e , a r e a p p l i e d i n many r i v e r b a s i n s i n accordance w i t h t h e k i n d o f t h e a n a l y z e d scheme;

- t h e s i m u l a t i o n - o p t i m i z a t i o n SIMOPT model (Dima, V i s a n 1980) used i n any k i n d o f scheme c o n f i g u r a t i o n i n o rde r t o a n a l y z e t h e m u l t i p u r p o s e water resources systems i s implemented i n seven b a s i n s and subbasins and w i l l b e p r o g r e s s i v e l y a l s o a p p l i e d f o r a l l t h e o t h e r r i v e r bas i ns.

Concern ing t h e prob lem of s to rage r e s e r v o i r s and r i v e r bed s e d i m e n t a t i o n as w e l l as t h e water qua l i t y r e g i me i n c l u d i ng e u t r o p h i c a t i o n , t h e r e were deve loped o r a r e b e i n g exper imented w i t h mathemat ica l s i m u l a t i o n models i n o r d e r t o a n a l y s e t h e r e s e r v o i r t e c h n o l o g i c a l and o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .

For a b e t t e r assessment o f t h e water resources systems per fo rmances (ou tpu ts ) and t h e i r behav iou r p e c u l i a r i t i e s , t h e main p r i n c i p l e s on g l o b a l r e l i a b i l i t y were s t a t e d , t a k i n g i n t o account n o t o n l y t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l e v e n t s (a 1 most e x c l u s i v e l y used nowadays) b u t t h e s t a b i l i t y , f u n c t i o n a l i t y and o t h e r i n v o l v e d aspec ts as w e l l (Dima 1978) .

The use o f m u l t i o b j e c t i v e - m u l t i c r i t e r i a a n a l y s i s techn iques i s one o f t h e wa te r management s p e c i a l i s t s ' p r i o r i t i e s (So laco lu , Ceachir 1978, l ongu lescu , 1986).

When p r e p a r i n g t h e long- te rm o p e r a t i n g r u l e s i n WRS p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t y as w e l l as f o r t h e p e r i o d i c a l u p d a t i n g o f these r u l e s a long t h e WRS l i f e p e r i o d , s i m u l a t i o n models (e.g. GRINGO, HOMBRE, ARTIZAN, UNDA, PRAT) and s i m u l a t i o n - o p t i m i z a t i o n models ( i . e . SIMOPR) a r e used.

The random f e a t u r e o f most water resources c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as w e l l as o f some wa te r management requ i remen ts o b l i g e us t o ach ieve i n t h e WRS day b y day o p e r a t i o n such a regime o f s t o r i n g o r d i s c h a r g e water t h a t a l l o w s a r a t i o n a l t r a d e - o f f between t h e updated long- te rm o p e r a t i o n r u l e s and t h e sys tem 's momentary ( a c t u a l ) cond i t i ons (Predescu 1982) .

-175-

The p r e p a r a t i o n o f o p e r a t i n g d e c i s i o n s i s ach ieved w i t h i n a c o n t i n u o u s i t e r a t i v e a n a l y s i s feed-back p rocess (Dima, Cadar iu , V i san , 1980) where the a n a l y s i s techn iques f o r d e f i n i n g t h e s y s t e m ' s s t a t e p l a y an i m p o r t a n t r o l e .

The t e c h n i q u e s used r e f e r t o e x p l i c i t p rocedures o f c l a s s i c t y p e (abac i , d iagrams, p r e e s t a b l i s h e d o p e r a t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s ) as w e l l as ma themat i ca l mode 1 s se 1 ec t e d acco rd i ng t o t h e p rob lem i n q u e s t i o n .

The s i m u l a t i o n - o p t i m i z a t i o n A L O C model based on t h e O u t - o f - K i l t e r a l g o r i t h m , i s used t o deve lop t h e m o n t h l y and q u a r t e r l y o p e r a t i n g p l a n s o f t h e m u l t i p u r p o s e r e s e r v o i r s .

A dynamic programming model m i n i m i z i n g t h e u s e r s ' o p e r a t i o n c o s t s was deve loped f o r t h e o p t i m a l a l l o c a t i o n o f wa te r resources among wa te r u s e r s i n a r i v e r zone (Parvu lescu 1972) .

R a i n f a l l - r u n o f f models (Serban 1984) a r e a p p l i e d f o r r e a l - t i m e f o r e c a s t i n g o f wa te r i n f l o w s a t WRS e n t e r i n g p o i n t s .

References

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2 . AMAFTIESEI, R . - Modelul "ARTIZAN" p e n t r u c a l c u l u l a s i g u r a r i i c u apa a f o l o s i n t e r l o r . A p 1 i c a t i e i n baz- h i d r o g r a p h i c O l t . (ARTIZAN -math- e m a t i c a l model f o r e v a l u a t i n g t h e m e e t i n g o f wa te r demands.

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The PRAT s i m u l a t i o n model ( f o r t h e who1 e WRS) and seve ra 1 s i m u l a t i o n models f o r s e l e c t i n g t h e b e s t manoeuvres o f a dam's hydromechan ica l equipment (Cadar iu 1981, Voinea 1984) a r e used i n t h e day t o day a c t i v i t y d u r i n g f l o o d p e r i ods .

Some o f t h e above men t ioned mode ls a r e d i r e c t l y a p p l i e d b y t h e l o c a l WRS o p e r a t i n g u n i t s b y means o f t h e i r own computers o r b y t e r m i n a l s connected t o l o c a l o r r e g i o n a l c e n t e r s .

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( O p e r a t i o n p o l i c y f o r w a t e r r e s o u r c e s sys tem) , H i d r o t e h n i c a ( E n c i c l o p e d i a p e l o r ) , n r . 5 , Bucures t i ,Romania , 1980.

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o p t i m i z a t i o n model fo r t h e s t u d y o f t e c h n i c a l pa ramet res o f m u l t i p u r p o s e wa te r management sys tems) , H i d r o t e h n i c a , n r . 10, B u c r e s t i , Romania, 1981.

12.DULCU, G . - L ' e m p l o i de l a banque de donnees pour l ' a m nagement de de c o u r s d ' e a u XV i ernes j o u r n e e s de l ' h y d r a u l i q u e , Tou louse, France, 1978.

13. HORTOPAN, I . , e t a l . - Gospodar i rea A p e l o r . Manua 1 p e n t r u sco l i t e h n i c e (Water management; Handbook for t e c h n i c i a n s ) . E d i t . O i d a c t i c a s i pedagog ica , Bucures t i ,Romania , 1965.

14 . IORGULESCU, F I . - I n p rob lema d e c i z i i l o r r n u l t i c r i t e r i a l e (On t h e mu1 t i o b j e c t i v e d e c i s i o n s p r o b l e m s ) . H i d r o t e c h n i c a , nr .6, B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1986. w a t e r

15. KING, I .P . ; FILIPKOWSKI, A . - The O u t - o f - K i l t e r A l g o r i t h m as a s i n g l e s t e p method f o r s i m u l a t i o n and o p t i m i z a t i o n o f V i s t u l a P l a n n i n g A l t e r n a t i v e s . I n t e r n a t i ona 1 Symposium on

ma thema t i ca 1 m o d e l l i n g * i n h y d r o l o g y , Warsaw, 1971.

16. KINDLER, J. - The O u t - o f - K i l t e r A l g o r i t h m and some o f i t s a p p l i c a t i o n s i n Water Resources. Symposium f o r w a t e r management problems, Budapest, 1976.

1 7 . L A Z A R E S C U , F . ; S T E G A R O I U , P . - P lanu l de amenajare complexa a b a z i n u l u i Muresul S u p e r i o r (The Upper Mures r i v e r b a s i n m u l t i p u r p o s e development p l a n ) . H i d r o t e h n i c a , n r . 3, B u c u r e s t i , Romani a, 1978.

18. MARA, L . : OIMA, 1 . - S i m u l a r e ( S i m u l a t i o n ) . H i d r o t e h n i c a , n r . 7 , B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1982.

19. PARVULESCU, C . - Op t im iza rea r e p a r t i t i e i r e s u r s e l o r de apa (Techn i ques fo r o p t imal a l l o c a t i o n o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s ) , S t u d i i de economia a p e l o r , v o l . I O B u c u r e s t i , 1972.

20. P R E D E S C U , C . - U t i l i z a r e a g r a f i c e l o r d i specer i n exp 1 oa t a r e a l a c u r i l o r de acumulare (Use o f l ong - te rm o p e r a t i n g r u l e s i n s t o r a g e r e s e r v o i r s c u r r e n t o p e r a t i o n ) H i d r o t e h n i c a , n r . 5, B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1982.

21. SOLACOLU, P.; CEACHIR, 0. - Op t im iza rea s o l u t i i l o r de amenajare complexa a a p e l o r i n cazu 1 comparat i i 1 or p l u r i c r i t e r i a l e ( M u l t i o b j e c t i v e ana 1 yses t e c h n i q u e f o r o p t i m i z a t i o n o f m u l t i p u r p o s e water resources development a l t e r n a t i v e s ) H i d r o t e h n i c a , n r . 2, B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1979.

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2 2 . SOLACOLU, P . e t a l . - cu p r i v i r e l a j u s t i f i ca rea econornica a i n v e s t i t i i l o r i n l u c r a r i l e de combater e a i n u n d a t i i l o r (On the economica l j u s t i f i c a t i o n o f i nves tmen t c o s t s i n s t r u c t u r a l f l o o d c o n t r o l ) , H i d r o t e h n i c a , n r . 1 , B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1982.

23. STANESCU,V. A L . - Mathemat ica l model f o r t h e f 1 oodwaves e s t i m a t i o n . Meteoro logy and Hydro logy , n r . 2. I n s t i t u t e o f Me teo ro logy and Hydro logy , Bucures t i ,Romania , 1974.

24. STEGAROIU, P . - Resurse le de apa u t i l i z a b i l e a l e r i u r i l o r i n t e r i o a r e (ava i l a b l e wa te r resources o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r i v - e r s ) H i d r o t e c h n i c a nr . 1 1 , B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1982.

25. SERBAN, P . - Compunerea v i i t u r i l o r u t i 1 i z i n d mode 1 e matemat ice p l o a i e - s c u r g e r e ( R a i n f a l l - r u n o o f ma themat i ca l

mode 1 s fo r f l o o d waves c o m p o s i t i o n ) , H i d r o t e h n i c a , n r . 12. B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1984.

2 6 . TEODORESCU, e t a l . - Gospodar i rea Apelor (Water Management) , Edi t u r a C E R E S , B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1973.

2 7 UMBRESI, A l . , BURCEA, M. MEREUTA, D . - C o n c e p t i i s i metode p r i v i n d p r a c t i c a r e a b a l - ape i s i a p i r g h i i l o r economice p e n t r u v a l o r i f i c a r e a s u p e r i o - a r a a r e s u r s e l o r de apa (concepts and methods r e l a t e d t o t h e p r a c t i c e o f water management b a l a n c e and o f economic t o o l s f o r t h e b e t t e r u t i l i z a t i o n o f wa te r resources ) Appl i ed C y b e r n e t i c s E d i t u r a Academiei R . S . R . , B u c u r e s t i , Romania, 1985.

- 28. VISAN, V . ; DIMA, I . O p t i m i z a r e ( O p t i m i z a t i o n ) H i d r o t e h n i c a , n r . 1 1 , Bucu res t i ,Roman ia , 1981.

29. V O I N E A , B. - Metoda de c a l c u l a p r i o r i c a1 manev re lo r l a ech ipamen te le h id romecan ice a l e b a r a j e l o r i n p e r i o a d a de ape m a r i . (Method f o r t h e a p r i o r i comput ing o f o p e r a t i n g s c h e d u l e f o r dams ' hydromechanic equ i pments du r i ng f 1 oods) H i d r o t e h n i c a , nr . 10, Bucures t i ,Romania , 1984.

30. X X X - S t o c h a s t i c o p t i m i z a t i o n and s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s f o r management o f r e g i o n a l w a t e r r e s o u r c e s systems. Texas Water Development Board , USA, 1971, 1972-

31. X X X - G u i d e l i n e f o r P r o j e c t E v a l u a t i o n , UNIDO, UN, New York , 1972

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APPLICATION OF SIMULATION TECHNIQUES IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING IN THE GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

Alfred Becker und Dieter Kozerski lnstitut fur Wasserwirtschaft. DDR-1190 Berlin Schnellerstr. 140, GDR

1. Increasing Complexity in Water Management

The developments i n t h e l a s t decade have i n p a r t i c u l a r shown t h a t i t becomes more and more d i f f i c u l t i n a l l p a r t s o f t h e w o r l d

- t o s a t i s f y m u n i c i p a l , a g r i c u l t u r a l and i n d u s t r i a l wa te r demands i n t h e r e q u i r e d q u a n t i t y and/or q u a l i t y

- t o p r o t e c t wa te r r e s o u r c e s a g a i n s t p o l l u t i o n

- t o p r o v i d e a s u f f p r o t e c t i o n .

The number and v a r u s e r s and o f p o l s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s requ i remen ts r e 1 i a b i 1 i t y q u a n t i t y and qua

of

c i e n t f l o o d

e t y o f wa te r u t i o n sources a r e ng and so a r e t h e for a h i g h e r w a t e r supp ly ( i n i t y ) as w e l l as f o r

f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n .

I n many cases c o n f l i c t i n g p rob - lems a r i s e wh ich can be s o l v e d o n l y b y a c e n t r a l i z e d p l a n n i n g o f approp- r i a t e measures f o r r a t i o n a l use o f t h e a v a i l a b l e wa te r resources such as r e s e r v o i r s , wa te r t r a n s f e r chan- n e l s o r p i p e s , was te water t r e a t m e n t p l a n t s , l e v e e systems e t c .

As t hese p l a n n i n g p rocedures have t o c o n s i d e r problems and c o n f 1 i c t s a r i s i n g f rom t h e i n c r e a s i n g c o m p l e x i t y o f wa te r resources systems management,

a c c e p t a b l e s o l u t i o n s can b e found i n more and more cases o n l y b y t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f ma themat i ca l models and advanced sys tem ana 1 ys i s t e c h n i q u e s . (Cohon and Marks 1975, Haimes e t a l . 1975, H a i t h and Loucks 1976, Ma jo r 1977).

T h i s paper i s r e l a t e d t o p rob lems as men t ioned above, i . e . t o m u l t i o b j e c t i v e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s management i n r i v e r b a s i n s r e g a r d i n g m u l t i p u r p o s e wa te r usage and r e s e r v o i r c o n t r o l aspec ts , w i t h s p e c i a l r e g a r d t o wa te r q u a n t i t y .

2. The Special Importance of Simulation Techniques in Water Resources Project Planning in Complex River Basins

I n t h e s e l e c t i o n o f a m o d e l l i n g approach o r systems a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e f o r t h e s o l u t i o n o f t h e be fo re -men t ioned prob lems two b a s i c q u e s t i o n s have t o be answered:

(a) I s a d i r e c t o p t i m i z a t i o n d e s i r e d o r a r e t h e t r a d e - o f f s of p r i m a r y i n t e r e s t w h i c h r e s u l t from d i f f e r e n t p l a n n i n g and c o n t r o l s t r a t e g i e s ?

(b) Shou ld t h e a n a l y s i s b e based on s e l e c t e d c r i t i c a l p e r i o d s , e.g. on obse rved h i s t o r i c a l low f l o w p e r i o d s , or on s e t s o f genera ted l o n g e r t i m e s e r i e s o f t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l s t a t e v a r i a b l e s expec ted i n t h e p l a n n i n g p e r i o d ?

Accord i ng t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l developments t h e r e i s a d e c l i n i n g t r e n d i n t h e G D R i n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f d i r e c t o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s ( q u e s t i o n a ) , and p l a n n i n g s t u d i e s based on s e l e c t e d c r i t i c a l p e r i o d s ( q u e s t i o n b) a r e o n l y accepted as a p r e - i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f more complex m o d e l l i n g p r o j e c t s , o r i n cases where t h e m o d e l l i n g approach cannot be a p p l i e d (because o f a l a c k o f t i m e , r e s e a r c h c a p a c i t y . . . . ) . T h i s means t h a t s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s u s i n g s e t s o f g e n e r a t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t v a r i a b l e s a r e g e n e r a l l y p r e f e r r e d i n t h e GDR, p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f optimum d e s i g n a l t e r n a t i v e s and optimum c o n t r o l s t r a t e g i e s f o r m u l t i p u r p o s e r e s e r v o i r systems.

The m a i n reasons a r e :

(1) I n most cases d i r e c t o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s ( l i n e a r , dynamic programming e t c .) can be a p p l i e d e f f i c i e n t l y on1 y f o r d e t e r m i n e d s e l e c t e d r e f e r e n c e c o n d i t i o n s (e.g. an observed o r g i v e n c r i t i c a l p e r i o d ) . T h i s l eads i m m e d i a t e l y t o t h e q u e s t i o n f o r t h e optimum s o l u t i o n i n o t h e r more o r l e s s c r i t i c a l p e r i o d s (see e.g. Sh iao and McSparran 1911) .

As a r e s u l t o f a p p l i c a t i o n s o f d i r e c t o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s i n t h e GDR, e .g . t o de termi r ,e an economical o p t i mum s t r u c t u r e o f a w a t e r d i s t r i b u t i o n system (Forner e t a l . 1980) o r t o o p t i m i z e t h e c o n t r o l s t r a t e g y o f s i n g l e r e s e r v o i r s (Schramm 1981) , i t t u r n e d o u t t h a t t h e c a l c u l a t e d opt imum se rved o q l y as an o r i e n t a t i o n w h i l e p o l i t i c a l , t e r r i t o r i a l and w a t e r management a s p e c t s were taken as t h e main f a c t o r s i n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g ( s u f f i c i e n t r e l i a b i l i t y o f water s u p p l y f o r ma in u s e r s , e t c . ) . - S i m i l a r e x p e r i e n c e has been made i n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f u t i l i t y t h e o r y , w h i c h i s based on a u n i f i e d e v a l u a t i o n o f a l l a s p e c t s t o be c o n s i d e r e d i n

the o p t i m i z a t i o n ( s o c i a l , p o l i t i c a l , e n v i r o n m e n t a l , e t c . ) (Keeney e t a l . 1976) .

The a p p l i c a t i o n o f e x p l i c i t s t o c h a s t i c o p t i m i za t i on techn iques leads t o s e r i o u s problems i n t h e case o f systems w i t h severa 1 r e s e r v o i r s , and t h e chance - c o n s t r a i n e d - programming does n o t f u l f i l l a l l r e q u i r e m e n t s (Palmer e t a l . 1979) .

The GDR i s one o f t h e European c o u n t r i es where water r e s o u r c e s a r e r e l a t i v e l y sca rce and i n m u l t i p l e use (Dyck e t a l . 1980). Low f l o w and f l o o d f l o w p e r i o d s occur subsequent ly w i t h t y p i c a l p e r s i s t e n c y and c l u s t e r e f f e c t s :

subsequent 1 onger 1 ow f 1 ow p e r i o d s w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t d e f i c i e n c e s i n water supp ly f o r a number o f water u s e r s

sequences o f major and dangerous f l o o d s .

c o n t r o 1 There f o r e t h e s t r a t e g i e s , e s p e c i a l l y f o r l a r g e r r e s e r v o i r s , have t o t a k e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h e maximum p o s s i b l e recharge o f w a t e r f o r low f l o o d p e r i o d s and a l s o t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n f o r dangerous f l o o d s which can occur i n t h e same p e r i o d . That means t h a t low f l o w p e r i o d s and f l o o d s have t o be c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n process i n a r e a l i s t i c manner c o n c e r n i n g t h e i r t i m e s t r u c t u r e , magni tude, sequence, e t c .

Water resources eng ineers and dec is ion-makers i n t h e GDR have expressed t h e i r p r i mary i n t e r e s t i n r e s u l t s on t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f cons i dered p l a n n i n g and c o n t r o l s t r a t e g i e s . T h i s e s p e c i a l l y concerns i n f o r m a t i o n on t r a d e - o f f s i n t h e r e l i a b i l i t y f i g u r e s f o r a l l water use rs ,

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i n hydro1 og i ca 1 c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s on t h e f l o o d regime, i n wa te r q u a l i t y e t c . P r e f e r r e d i s i n f o r m a t i o n i n f orm o f p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b t i c n f u n c t i o n s , cumula tve f r e q u e n c i e s , e t c .

(6) I nf o rmat i on on econom i c e f f e c t s o b t a i n e d f rom c o s t - b e n e f i t - ana 1 yses , cost-and-damage-analyses e t c . i s a p p r e c i a t e d and o f t e n reques ted as a supplement, b u t i t i s never t a k e n as t h e o n l y b a s i s i n dec i s ion -mak ing .

The aspec ts ment ioned under

p a r t i c u l a r l y i n i t i a t e d t h e deve 1 opmen t o f an e f f i c i e n t compu te r i zed l o n g - t e r m s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e (Schramm 1975) w h i c h i s based on t h e Monte-Carlo-method s i m i l n r t o t h a t i n t r o d u c e d by Thomas and F i e r i n g (1962), Svanidze (1984) , Hu fschmid t and F i e r i n g (1966). I t uses s y n t h e t i c t i m e s e r i e s o f t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t v a r i a b l e s , a l l o w s f o r a c o m p u t a t i o n o f numerous p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s and p r o v i des comprehensive i n f o r m a t i o n t o s u p p o r t dec i s ion -mak ing . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g some s p e c i a l f e a t u r e s o f t h e above-mentioned s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e a r e b r i e f l y r e p o r t e d and some i m p o r t a n t r e s u l t s and a p p l i c a t i o n exper iences p resen ted .

(2) , (4) (5) and (6) have

For about one t h i r d o f t h e t e r r i t o r y o f t h e GDR i n d i v i d u a l r i v e r b a s i n models o f t h a t t y p e were i n t r o d u c e d and have been r e g u l a r l y a p p l i e d f o r l ong - te rm b a l a n c i n g o f wa te r demands and a v a i l a b l e wa te r resources and t o s e l e c t optimum l o n g - t e r m p l a n n i n g and c o n t r o l s t r a t e g i e s f o r t h e r i v e r b a s i n

Becker e t a l . 1978, R i e c h e r t e t a l . 1979, Bo th , K o t e r s k i 1980, D i e t z , Boehme 1980, Lehmann e t a l . 1981, Schramm 1981). The s u c c e s s f u l a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e deve 1 oped s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e may be e x p l a i n e d p r i m a r i l y as f o l l o w s :

system (Gruenewald e t a l . 1977,

J( The s i m u l a t i o n a l g o r i t h m s o f t h e models a r e c l e a r and u n d e r s t a n d a b l e f o r t h e model u s e r s and t h e complex c o n d i t i o n s o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s use and management i n e x t e n s i v e l y used r i v e r b a s i n s can b e r e p r e s e n t e d more r e a l i s t i c a l l y t h a n i n a p p l i c a t i o n s o f d i r e c t o p t i m i z a t i o n techn iques .

* The r e s u l t s p r o v i d e d by t h e model c l e a r l y r e f l e c t t h e e f f e c t s o f a g i v e n c o n t r o l measure ( d e c i s i o n a l t e r n a t i v e ) . The c o n f i d e n c e o f t h e dec i s ion -makers i n t h e model i s p a r t i c u l a r l y c o n f i r m e d by t h e f a c t t h a t r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d f o r s i m p l e d e c i s i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s meet t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e .

There i s no a p r i o r i r e s t r i c t i o n o f t h e d e c i s i o n range because t h e model does n o t r e q u i r e p r e s e l e c t e d c r i t e r i a f o r t h e c o m p u t a t i o n (e.g. a d i s t i n c t o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n o r assumpt ions o f t h e dec i s ion -maker on p r e f e r e n c e

enab les t h e dec i s ion -maker t o e x t e n d s t e p - b y - s t e p t h e d e s i r e d i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e sys tem b e h a v i o u r , t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f new wa te r s t r u c t u r e s , changed c o n t r o l s t r a t e g i e s , t h e t r a d e - o f f s , e t c . a c c o r d i n g t o t h e p r o g r e s s o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n .

s t r u c t u r e s e t c ) . I t

The i n f o r m a t i o n r e c e i v e d can b e used a l s o as a b a s i s f o r a c o l l e c t i v e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g w h i c h i n c l u d e s w a t e r u s e r s and o t h e r i n t e r e s t e d a u t h o r i t i e s .

These c o n c l u s i o n s a r e c o n f i r m e d by a p u b l i c a t i o n o f K i nd 1 e r (1981) i n wh ich he i 1 l u s t r a t e s t h e s t e p - b y - s t e p p r o g r e s s i n an i n t e r a c t i v e computer a i d e d d e c i s i o n p r o c e d u r e r e f e r r i n g t o a d e f i n i t e s e l e c t e d h y d r o l o g i c a l s i t u a t i o n .

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3. Short Summary of Characteristics of the Advanced Version of the Simulation Model

The s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e men t ioned b e f o r e has been s y s t e m a t i c a l l y improved d u r i n g t h e l a s t y e a r s . The main o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s r e s e a r c h work was t o s e t up a program system wh ich can e a s i l y be adapted t o any g i v e n r i v e r b a s i n and wh ich a l l o w s f o r a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f

3: v a r i o u s p l a n n i n g and management a l t e r n a t i v e s

fc d i f f e r e n t w a t e r demand f i g u r e s ( i n c l u d i n g seasonal v a r i a t i o n s

o r t r e n d s over a l onger p l a n n i n g p e r i o d )

J: l o n g obse rved o r s y n t h e t i c s e r - i e s o f h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t v a r - i a b l e s c h a r a c t e r i z i n g t h e a v a i l - a b l e s u r f a c e wa te r r e s o u r c e s .

The advanced v e r s i o n o f t h e program system has s e l f - a d a p t i n g f e a t u r e s so t h a t w i t h i n a s i n g l e computer r u n t h e s p e c i f i c sub-programs and a l g o r i t h m s f o r a g i v e n r i v e r b a s i n a r e a u t o m a t i c a l l y g e n e r a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s p e c i f i c i n p u t d a t a (Kozersk i 1981). The program f a c i l i t a t e s

(1) t h e t r e a t m e n t o f any g i v e n r i v e r sys tem

(2) t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t sys tem s t r u c t u r e s and c o n t r o l s t r a t e g i e s

(3) t h e o p t i o n a l use o f obse rved o r s y n t h e t i c t i m e s e r i e s as h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t v a r i a b l e s

(4) t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e f o r m o f r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e s i m u l a t i o n r e s u l t s .

The b a s i c components o f t h e advanced program, t h e i r i n t e r c o n n e c t i o n s and i n t e g r a t i o n i n t h e d e c i s i o n p rocess a r e r e p r e s e n t e d i n a genera l f o rm i n F i g . 1 . Supplementary i n f o r m a t i o n on i m p o r t a n t measures c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess i s g i v e n i n F i g . 2 .

Ma in p a r t s o f t h e program a r e :

( A ) t h e s t o c h a s t i c s i m u l a t i o n model f o r t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s wh ich d e f i n e t h e a v a i l a b l e wa te r resources

(B) t h e d e t e r m i n i s t i c wa te r management model wh ich s i m u l a t e s g i ven s t r a t e g i e s o f water a l l o c a t i o n , r e s e r v o i r o p e r a t i o n e t c . i n t h e r i v e r b a s i n , and p r o v i d e s t h e r e g i s t r a t i o n o f water supp ly d e f i c i e n c i e s , r e s u l t i n g damages and o t h e r s t a t e c o n d i t i o n s o f i n t e r e s t f o r t h e f i n a l s t a t i s t i ca 1 eva 1 u a t i on.

An a d d i t i o n a l component i s

(C) t h e program f o r t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e model o u t p u t d a t a .

The l a s t ment ioned program and t h e da ta d i s p a t c h i n g p rocedure were des igned on t h e b a s i s o f s p e c i a l d a t a i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , check ing and p r e p r o c e s s i n g procedures wh ich enab le any g i v e n r i v e r b a s i n system (or system s t r u c t u r e ) t o be mode l l ed by s i m p l e i n p u t d a t a s p e c i f i c a t i o n ( i n s t e a d o f s o f t w a r e development as r e q u i r e d i n p r e v i o u s models.) I t shou ld be ment ioned t h a t t hose p r i n c i p l e s a r e on-I i n e w i t h r e c e n t i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r e n d s .

Other e s s e n t i a l p r i n c i p l e s i n t h e program development were:

( 1 ) The d e t e r m i n i s t i c wa te r management model (B) was c o m p l e t e l y separa ted f r o m t h e s t o c h a s t i c s i m u l a t i o n model ( A ) , which genera tes i n t e r c o r r e l a t e d t ime s e r i e s o f t h e r e q u i r e d h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t v a r i a b l e s (e.g. mon th l y averages o f s t reamf l o w ) . These i n p u t v a r i a b l e s a r e s t o r e d on magne t i c tape and can be read i n t o t h e main s t o r a g e f o r each a c t u a l compu ta t i on .

(2) The genera l i z a t i o n o f t h e d e t e r m i n i s t i c wa te r management model (B) which s i m u l a t e s t h e processes o f wa te r a l l o c a t i o n , u t i l i z a t i o n and management i n a r i v e r b a s i n , i n c l u d i n g r e s e r v o i r o p e r a t i o n , was ach ieved by means

-183 -

o f t y p i f i e d a l g o r i t h m s f o r t h e v a r i o u s o p e r a t i o n s o c c u r r i n g i n t h e sys tem.

(3) The p r og r am f o r t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e c o m p u t z t i o n r e s u l t s (C) was a l s o g e n e r a l i z e d w i t h rega rd t o two forms o f d a t a l i s t s ( t a b l e s ) p r i n t e d b y t h e computer.

Because i t i s t h e per fo rmance f e a t u r e s (genera l a p p l i c a b i l i t y , f l e x i b i l i t y , e t c . ) t h a t makes t h e advanced model v e r s i o n a t t r a c t i v e f o r p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n , some e s s e n t i a l d e t a i l s w i l l be d e s c r i b e d b r i e f l y i n a l a t e r c h a p t e r .

4. Assessment of the Available Water Resources and Hydrological Input Characteristics for the Planning of Water Resources Systems Management

I t i s q u i t e obv ious t h a t t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n used i n t h e p l a n n i n g process i s e x t r e m e l y e s s e n t i a l f o r t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e r e s u l t s . E r r o r s i n t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l a f f e c t a l l subse- quen t s t e p s o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess and can l e a d t o inadequate d e c i s i o n s (wrong d e s i g n o f new s t r u c t u r e s e t c . ) . Thus new o r i e n t a t i o n s a r e needed d u r i n g t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l H y d r o l o g i c a l Programme f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h ir, t h i s f i e l d due t o t h e f o l l o w i n g genera l problems i n h y d r o l o g y :

( i ) The h y d r o l o g i c a l systems a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y a f f e c t e d b y human i n f l u e n c e s . Hence, i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e a v a i l a b l e wa te r r e s o u r c e s and on the h y d r o l o g - i c a l reg ime d e r i v e d f rom ex i s t i ng d a t a se r i es canno t be s i m p l y e x t r a p o l a t e d i n t o t h e p l a n n i n g p e r i o d s t o be i n v e s t i g a t e d .

( i i ) Long-term c l i m a t i c changes m o d i f i e d by i n c r e a s i n g human impacts can a l s o i n f l u e n c e t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e wa te r r e s o u r c e s .

T h e r e f o r e i t w i l l become more and more necessary t o compute t h e ava l a b l e wa te r r e s o u r c e s b y means of h y d r o l o g i c a l models o f r i v e r bas ns f rom m e t e o r o l o g i c a l i n p u t f i e l d s ( p r e c i p i t a t i o n , e v a p o t r a n s p i r a t i o n ) t a k i n g i n t o accoun t t h e e f f e c t s o f expec ted c l i m a t i c changes ( t r e n d s , e t c . ) . As g e n e r a l i z e d t e c h n i q u e s f o r such an approach were not a v a i l a b l e t h e approved s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e based on t h e M o n t e - C a r l o - p r i n c i p l e as i n t r o d u c e d by Schramm (1975) was app l i ed I t g e n e r a t e s t i m e s e r i e s o f i n t e r c o r r e i a t e d h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of any d e s i r e d l e n g t h , e.g. 20 s e t s o f 50-year r e c o r d s o f m o n t h l y r i v e r d i s c h a r g e s , as s t o c h a s t i c, m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l , u n s t e a d y , t r a n s f o r m e d normal - d i s t r i b u t e d Markov-process o f h i g h e r o r d e r (Schramm 1975).

I n some c o u n t r i e s t h e approach was a rgued a g a i n s t as f o l l o w s : t h e g e n e r a t e d t i m e s e r i e s canno t s u p p l y more i n f o r m a t i o n t h a n t h e s h o r t e r obse rved ones w h i c h a r e t a k e n as t h e b a s i s f o r t h e s y n t h e t i c g e n e r a t i o n ; obse rved s i n g l e ex t reme e v e n t s a r e i n a d m i s s a b l y e x t r a p o l a t e d i n t o t h e p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n ; t h e r e f o r e t h e use o f t h e observed r e c o r d s f o r t h e p l a n n i n g i n v e s t i g a t i o n seems t o be t h e b e s t s o l u t i o n . As r e p l y t o t h e s e arguments t h e f o l l o w i n g may be s a i d :

P r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f t h e h y d r o l o g i c a l , wa te r r e s o u r c e s r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s , e.g. r i v e r d i s c h a r g e s , have t o b e based on s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e d a t a s e t s i n a l l ranges t o be c o n s i d e r e d . T h i s i s o n l y gua ran teed i f 1 onger t i m e ser i es a r e a v a i l a b l e .

(2) The a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l g e n e r a t i o n t e c h n i q u e ensures t h a t t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i n v o l v e d i n t h e l o n g e s t obse rved r e c o r d s o f t h e r i v e r b a s i n under c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s g e n e r a l i z e d . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s t h e e m p i r i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n

f u n c t i o n s and those r e c e i v e d f rom t h e genera ted t i m e ser i es can b e c r i t i c a l l y r e v i e w e d and compared w i t h those d e r i v e d f r o m a v a i l a b l e l o n g r e c o r d s o f o t h e r s t a t i o n s , i n o r d e r t o a v o i d e r r o r s o f t h e abcve-ment ioned c h a r a c t e r .

(3) Long genera ted t i m e s e r i e s o f d i s c h a r g e s wh ich a d e q u a t e l y r e f l e c t t h e s t a t i s t i c s o f t h e r e a l p r o c e s s i n c l u d e a l a r g e r v a r i e t y o f c r i t i c a l e v e n t s o r sequences o f such e v e n t s ( d e f i c i e n c y p e r i o d s , f l o o d s ,

e t c . ) t h a n t h e obse rved r e c o r d s .

The w i d e p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e approved s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e has c o n f i r m e d i t s p r a c t i c a l e f f i c i e n c

5. Advanced Version of the Simulation Technique

The b a s i c p r i n c i p l e s o f t h e advanced v e r s i o n o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n model f o r w a t e r r e s o u r c e s systems management w h i c h may b e a p p l i e d a l s o f o r o t h e r purposes a r e d e s c r i b e d i n a n o t h e r p u b l i c a t i o n (Kozersk i 1981) . Here o n l y a s h o r t summary s h o u l d be g i v e n :

(a) To d e s c r i b e t h e c o n f i g u r a t i o n o f a g i v e n r i v e r ne twork a1 1 b a l a n c e p o i n t s and sys tem e lemen ts a l o n g t h e r i v e r s ( l o c a t i o n o f w a t e r w i t h d r a w a l s and r e l e a s e s , o f r e s e r v o i r s , e t c . ) a r e deno ted b y dec ima l numbers (see F i g . 3 and c o l . 1 o f T a b l e 1 ) . T h i s n o t a t i o n a l l o w s one t o r e f e r t o any e x i s t i n g r i v e r sys tem c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , and t o i n c l u d e o r e x c l u d e i n t e r m e d i a t e b a l a n c e p o i n t s w i t h o u t any r e d e n o t i n g o f o t h e r p o i n t s . For i n t e r n a l purposes o f t h e computer program t h e dec ima l n o t a t i o n I S

a u t o m a t i c a l l y t r a n s f o r m e d i n t o an i n t e g e r numera t i on (see T a b l e 1 ) . For each b a l a n c e p o i n t t h e n e x t downstream b a l a n c e p o i n t i s s p e c i f i e d so t h a t t h e ne twork c o n f i g u r a t i o n i s e n t i r e l y d e f i n e d by t h e s i n g l e v e c t o r

c h a r a c t e r i z e s t h e c l o s i n g N E X T (K) : ( N E X T ( K ) = - 999

p r o f i l e ) . T h i s v e c t o r i s then a l s o used as a "downstream o p e r a t o r " wh i c h o rgan i zes a downstream c o m p u t a t i o n b y means o f t h e s i m p l e o p e r a t i o n K ' = N E X T ( K ) .

(b) A c c o r d i n g l y a g e n e r a l i z e d d e s c r i p t i o n for a l l wa te r uses was i n t r o d u c e d w h i c h a l l o w s one t o s p e c i f y (see T a b l e 2 and F i g . 5) :

1': t h e 1 o c a t i o n o f wa te r w i t h d r a w a l (PE) and r e t u r n f low (PR)

9: t h e r e l a t e d q u a n t i t i e s ( E , R) as c o n s t a n t o r s e a s o n a l l y v a r y i n g v a l u e s (e.g. m o n t h l y ) .

J; p r e f e r e n c e numbers (Z) d e f i n i n g a p r i o r i t y sequence of t h e use rs (sma 1 1 e r p r e f e r e n c e number deno tes h i gher p r i o r i t y ) .

:y .

(c) The p r o c e s s o f w a t e r resources u t i l i z a t i o n and management i s s i m u l a t e d i n each compu ta t i ona l s t e p as f o l l o w s :

- Reading o f t h e r e q u i r e d h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t v a r i a b l e s (e.g. u n i n f l u e n c e d d i scha rges ) f rom a d a t a s t o r a g e u n i t .

- A l l o c a t i c n o f wa te r t o a l l use rs a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r demand and p r i o r i t y , t h e a v a i l a b l e water r e s o u r c e s and t h e re1 ease o f wa te r f rom r e s e r v o i r s , i f necessary .

- C a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e r e s u l t i n g s t a t e c o n d i t i o n s ( a c t u a l water supp ly , reduced d i scha rges , a c t u a l r e s e r v o i r s t o r a g e s , e t c . ) .

- R e g i s t r a t i o n of these s t a t e v a r i a b l e s ( c u m u l a t i v e c o u n t i n g ) a c c o r d i n g t o a s p e c i f i e d l i s t o f p r e s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s and even ts t o be ana lysed .

Water w i thdawa l and r e t u r n f low may b e l o c a t e d a t t h e same ba lance p o i n t (e.g. N 204 i n F i g . 3) o r a t d i f f e r e n t ones

-185-

(e.g. N 102) . A user can be s u b d i v i d e d i n t o seve ra l user e lements ( p o r t i o n s o f water use o f d i f f e r e n t impor tance w h i c h a r e s p e c i f i e d by d i f f e r e n t p r e f e r e n c e numbers, e.g. s p l i t t i n g o f N 103 i n t o t h e e lements N 103.1 - t h e s o - c a l l e d b a s i c demand w i t h p r e f e r e n c e number 50 - and N 103.2 - t h e r e s i d u a l demand w i t h p r e f e r e n c e number 180) . The sequence o f use rs i n t h e

c o n t r o l l e d i n each t ime s t e p by t h e p r e f e r e n c e numbers (f rom s m a l l e r t o h i g h e r ones) , e.g. t h e system o f users g i v e n i n T a b l e 1 i s computed i n t h e f o l l o w i n g sequence: N 103.1, N 305, N 102, N 103.2, N 204.

a l l o c a t i o n procedure I S

(d) Reservo i r s can be descr i bed a n a l o g o u s l y i n t h e i r l o c a t i o n , c a p a c i t y , c o n s e r v a t i o n volume, f l o o d c o n t r o l volume, e t c . The use o f t h e r e s e r v o i r s f o r w a t e r s u p p l y i s s p e c i f i e d by " r e l e a s e e lements" , w h i c h a l s o have a p r e f e r e n c e number. Here a number Z = 100 means t h a t f rom t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g r e s e r v o i r zone water r e l e a s e s a r e a l l o w e d f o r a l l u s e r s o f h i g h e r p r i o r i t y ( i n T a b l e 2 t hose a r e N 102, N 103.2, N 204) . Thus, by means o f a few d a t a m a n i f o l d r e s e r v o i r - use r r e l a t i o n s can be d e s c r i b e d i n c l u d i n g s u b d i v i s i o n o f t h e r e s e r v o i r s i n t o sub-zones. I f t h e computed s t o r a g e volume exceeds t h e c o n s e r v a t i o n zone volume t h e n inc reased r e l e a s e s a r e computed a c c o r d i n g t o t h e c a p a c i t y o f t h e r i v e r bed downstream o f t h e r e s e r v o i r .

Another f a c i l i t y o f t he computer program ( o p t i o n a l ava i l a b l e ) enab les t h e use r t o i n t e g r a t e s p e c i f i c a l g o r i t h m s ( s o - c a l l e d "dynamic e lements") wh ich a r e n o t covered by the s t a n d a r d e lements o f t h e advanced model ( i n c l u d i n g c a l l s o f e x t e r n a l subprograms i n F O R T R A N o r A L G O L , and t o c o n s i d e r s t a t e dependent m o d i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n

p r o c e d u r e (as e.g. s m a l l e r q u a n t i t i e s o f water w i t h d r a w a l s i n case o f exceedence o f a g i v e n l i m i t d i s c h a r g e , e t c . ) .

The d e s i r e d f l e x i b i l i t y and s i m p l i c i t y o f t h e d a t a o u t p u t program was a n a l o g o u s l y a c h i e v e d by d e f i n i n g two b a s i c t y p e s o f r e g i s t r a t i on:

t y p e 1 - r e g i s t r a t i o n o f any d e s i r e d - v a r i a b l e s (e.g. d i s c h a r g e s a t b a l a n c e , p o i n t s , w i t h d r a w - a l s o f u s e r s , e t c . ) and o u t - put o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f ex- ceedence o f d e f i n i t e d i s - charges i n t h e fo rm o f d a t a l i s t s as shown i n T a b l e 3.

t y p e 2 - r e g i s t r a t i o n o f t h e f i r s t month and o f t h e d u r a t i o n o f t h e c r i t i c a l e v e n t s o r c o n d i t i o n s (e.g. d u r a t i o n o f exceedence o f g i v e n l i m i t d i s c h a r g e s , d u r a t i o n o f d e f i n i t e d e f i c i e n c i e s i n w a t e r supp ly e t c . ) and o u t p u t o f t h e d a t a l i s t s .

An example o f a t y p e 1 - o u t p u t f o r a l ow land r i v e r i n t h e G D R i s shown i n T a b l e 3 ( p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f exceedence o f t h e d i s c h a r g e s l i s t e d i n column 1 o f T a b l e 3 ) . The t y p i c a l seasonal v a r i a t i o n o f t h e d i s c h a r g e s can be c l e a r l y seen. W h i l e t h e d i s c h a r g e i n F e b r u a r y a lways exceeds 19 m3/s (100% p r o b a b i 1 i t y o f exceedence) t h e m o n t h l y d i s c h a r g e i n August i s w i t h - i n t h e i n v e s t i g a t e d 100 y e a r s p e r i o d twen ty t imes b e l o w 1 m3/s ( o n l y 80% p r o b a b i l i t y o f exceedence) .A m o n t h l y minimum discharge o f e.g. 6 m3/s can be guaranteed h e r e o n l y b y means o f a d d i t i o n a l r e s e r v o i r s o r w a t e r t r a n s f e r s o r , when t h e smal 1 summer d i s c h a r g e s a r e caused e.g. by i r r i g a t i o n water l o s s e s by m o d i f y i n g t h e a l l o c a t i o n s t r a t e g y o r by chang ing t h e p r i o r i t i e s . The o u t p r i n t o f s i m i l a r p r o b a b i l i t y l i s t s can be s p e c i f i e d f o r w a t e r SUPPI Y d e f i c i e n c i e s o f any water use r o f i n t e r e s t , f o r s t o r a g e volumes i n r e s e r v o i r s e t c . , as w e l l as f o r d u r a t i o n s o f c r i t i c a l p e r i o d s ( t y p e 2 ) .

These t a b l e s a r e d i r e c t l y used f o r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g o r f o r p l o t t i n g t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e t r a d e - o f f s o f c o n f l i c t i n g o b j e c t i v e s as i n F i g . 4 . F i g . 4 was d e r i v e d i n an ea r 1 i e r i nve s t i g a t i on fo r t h e Rappbode r e s e r v o i r system w i t h a t o t a l s t o r a g e volume of 108 H i o m 3 (Becker e t a l . 1978).

The upper p a r t o f t h e f i g u r e i l l u s t r a t e s t h e decrease o f t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f d r i n k i n g w a t e r s u p p l y w i t h i n c r e a s i n g d r i n k i n g w a t e r w i t h d r a w a l . i t i s f u r t h e r remarkab le t h a t t h i s dec rease i s much s m a l l e r i f t h e d r i n k i n g w a t e r s u p p l y has a h i g h e r p r i o r i t y t h a n t h e r e l e a s e o f r e s e r v o i r w a t e r f o r l o w f l o w augmentat i on (Curve 1) .

T h e - l ower p a r t o f F i g . 4 i l l u s t r a t e s t h e decrease of t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f d r i n k i n g wa te r s u p p l y w i t h i n c r e a s i n g f l o o d c o n t r o l volume (Curve 1) and t h e a c c o r d i n g

dec reases i n f l o o d r i s k (Curve 2 ) .

On t h e b a s i s o f F i g . 4a c o n t r o l s t r a t e g y for t h e r e s e r v o i r sys tem was f i n a l l y d e f i n e d w h i c h i s accep ted b y a1 1 i n t e r e s t e d a u t h o r i t i e s and wh ich i n t h i s sense r e p r e s e n t s an optimum.

6. Simulation of Floods for the Consideration and Planning of Flood Protection

The most dangerous phases o f f l o o d s o f t e n occur d u r i n g a few days or even hours , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n s m a l l and medium mounta inous r i v e r b a s i n s . T h e r e f o r e a s i m u l a t i o n model wh ich works on a m o n t h l y b a s i s canno t a d e q u a t e l y t a k e accoun t o f t h e r e a l f l o o d r i s k (peak f l o w s , d u r a t i o n o f i n u n d a t i o n e t c . ) and o t h e r approaches have t o be a p p l i e d f o r f l o o d i n v e s t i g a t i o n s . A f t e r a f i r s t a t t e m p t o f d i s t r i b u t i n g d a i l y f l o w s around t h e genera ted m o n t h l y mean f l o w b y means o f s i m p l e average d i s t r i b u t i o n f u n c t i o n s { K r i p p e n d o r f , Schramm 1970) t h e f o l l o w i n g t e c h n i q u e was deve loped and a p p l i e d (Becker, K o z e r s k i 1976).

T y p i c a l d i m e n s i o n l e s s f l o o d hyd rog raph p a t t e r n s ( d a i l y f l o w s ) were d e r i v e d from a l a r g e r number of

observed f l o o d s . These were then used t o c a l c u l a t e d a i l y f l o o d f l o w s i n months t h e genera ted mean f l o w o f wh ich was i d e n t i f i e d as i n f l u e n c e d bv a f l o o d . The D a r t i c u l a r f l o o d f ! o w p a t t e r n was s e l e c t e d by a random exper imen t ( u r n e x p e r i m e n t ) .

A r e s u l t o b t a i n e d by the a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s t e c h n i q u e f o r t h e Saale r e s e r v c i r system i s shown i n F i g . 5 . I t i n d i c a t e s t h a t

an i n c r e a s e d f l o o d r i s k i s g i v e p d u r i n g February , March and A p r i l , d e s p i t e an i n c r e a s e o f t h e f l o o d c o n t r o l volume by 15 M i o m 3 f r o m November u n t i l March, as shown i n Curve A ( f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e s of t h e f l o o d c o n t r o l volume cannot be accep ted because of t h e d e c r e a s i n g r e 1 i a b i 1 i t i e s o f water s u p p l i e s d u r i n g t h e summer).

an e f f i c i e n t r e l e a s e s t r a t e g y f o r t h e f l o o d c o n t r o l volume b e f o r e and immet i ia te ly a f t e r a f l o o d can remarkab ly reduce t h e f l o o d r i s k from February u n t i l A p r i l (Curve B i n s t e a d o f C i n F i g . 5 ) .

As n e x t s t e p a s t o c h a s t i c s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e f o r t h e d i r e c t g e n e r a t i o n o f d a i l y f l o o d f l o w s w i t h i n a l ong - te rm s i m u l a t i o n model has been deve loped and a p p l i e d (Gruenewald e t a l . 1977) . T h i s techn ique i s d e s c r i b e d i n a s p e c i a l paper (Becker e t a l . 1979). The r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n t h e lower p a r t o f F i g . 4 i s a r e s u l t o f t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t e c h n i q u e f o r t h e Rappbode r e s e r v o i r system.

I n cases o f s e p a r a t e p l a n n i n g o f f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n measures, i . e . w i t h o u t s imu l taneous c o n s i d e r a t i o n of water s u p p l y problems, a s e p a r a t e s i m u l a t i o n o f s i n g l e f l o o d even ts i s accep tab le . An example o f a p p l i c a t i o n where abou t 300 f l o o d hydrographs were c a l c u l a t e d from s y n t h e t i c a l l y genera ted 2 - h o u r - r a i n f a l l d a t a b y means o f d e t e r m i n i s t i c r i v e r b a s i n models i s a l s o d e s c r i bed i n t h e above-ment ioned p u b l i c a t i o n (Becker e t a l . 1979) . One r e s u l t o f t h i s

-187-

a p p l i c a t i o n ( F i g . 6) shows t h a t t h e r e d u c t i o n of f l o o d peak f l o w by an u n c o n t r o l l e d r e s e r v o i r i s s t r o n g l y d i s c h a r g e dependent, and t h a t t h e r e f o r e t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f a s e l e c t e d f l o o d (e.g. a d e s i g n f l o o d ) i s n o t a p p r o p r i a t e . The r e s u l t s cannot be e x t r a p o l a t e d t o o t h e r f l o o d even ts .

T h i s u n d e r l i n e s t h e n e c e s s i t y o f i n v e s t i g a t i n g a l a r g e number o f even ts , o f genera ted t ime s e r i e s o f s t r e a m f l o w s e t c . as e x p l a i n e d i n Chapter 4 .

7 . Conclusions

For t h e p l a n n i n g o f wa te r resources systems d e s i g n and management t h e appl i c a t i on o f s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s wh ich use s t o c h a s t i c a l l y genera ted t i m e s e r i e s o f wa te r r e s o u r c e s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n a d e t e r m i n i s t i c water management model has been w i d e l y accepted . The advanced v e r s i o n o f t h i s t y p e o f model can e a s i l y be adapted t o a g i ven r i v e r b a s i n b y d a t a s p e c i f i c a t i o n a l o n e . T h i s I S

accompl ished t h r o u g h a u t o m a t i c gene- r a t i o n o f t h e s p e c i f i c subprograms f o r t h e r i v e r b a s i n t o be mode l l ed . To f a c i l i t a t e t h e p r o c e s s i n g o f a s e r i e s o f management a l t e r n a t i v e s ( t y p i c a l l y d i f f e r i n g i n a few numer i ca 1 parameters f r o m one ano the r ) t h e computer program package a l l o w s f o r an easy i n p u t d a t a m o d i f i c a t i o n wh ich a v o i d s t h e repea ted i n p u t o f a l a r g e number o f d a t a ca rds . I t can be s a i d t h a t t h e model i s r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e f o r p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n .

The f l e x i b i l i t y and s i m p l i c i t y o f t h e advanced model and t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e compu ta t i ons a r e p r o v i d e d i n the f o r m o f p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f se 1 ec t e d w a t e r r e s o u r c e s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r a l l months o f t h e year (e.g. p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f exceedence o f g i v e n l i m i t d i s c h a r g e s , s u p p l y d e f i c i e n c i e s e t c . ) a r e c o n s i d e r e d as ma in reasons f o r t h e w ide p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e mode: fo r r i v e r b a s i n s i n t h e G D R .

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w a t e r demand, f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n , m i n i m u m r i v e r d i s c h a r g e , e t c .

A . S t o c h a s t i c s i m u l a t i o n model o f t h e a v a i l a b l e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s

C .

S e p a r a t e s t o c h a s t i c g e n e r a t i o n o f t i m e s e r i e s o f h y d r o l o g i c a l i n p u t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r p l a n n i n g p rocess (e.g. s e t s o f 100 yea rs r e c o r d s o f mon th l y r i v e r s d i s c h a r g e s )

B . D e t e r m i n i s t i c water'management model ( repea ted a p p l i c a t i o n f o r f o r p l a n n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s of i n t e r e s t )

I I

F i n a l s t a t i s t i c a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , e v a l u a t i o n and p r i n t i n g o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n r e s u l t s f o r each p l a n n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e

J JI D e t a i l e d b a l a n c i n g of t h e a v a i l a b l e w a t e r resources (as pre-genera ted) w i t h w a t e r demands and o t h e r r e q u i - rements, and a l l o c a t i o n o f water r e s o u r c e s f rom r e s e r v o i r s a c c o r d i n g t o g i v e n c o n t r o l s t r a t e g i e s , use r p r i o r i t i e s , e t c .

A n a l y s i s o f t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e compu- t a t i o n s w i t h t h e d e c i s i o n makers

J J

month 1 y

t i m e s t e p

Se t u p o f new a l t e r n a t i v e s o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s management and a l l o c a t i o n ( i f r e q u i r e d ) i n c o o r d i n a t i o n w i t h t h e w a t e r u s e r s , d e c i s i o n makers e t c . ( i n c l u d i n g new system elements,

m o d i f i c a t i o n o f c o n t r o l s t r a t e g i e s , t e c h n o l o g i e s o f water use, e t c .

fo r a d d i t i o n a l model r u n s

D e c i s i o n making on t h e optimum sys tem des ign , w a t e r r e s o u r c e s a l l o c a t i o n and management

F i g . 1 Ma in components o f t h e p l a n n i n g p rocess o f water resources system d e s i g n and management i n r i v e r b a s i n s b y means o f s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s .

-190-

F i g . 2 . : Impor tan t Systems P

A . New w a t e r s t r u c

- R e s e r v o i r s

Elements i n Water Resources a n n i n g and Management

ur es

- Water t r a n s f e r c h a n n e l s and p i p e s - F l o o d c o n t r o l s t r u c t u r e s - Water t r e a t m e n t p l a n t s

e t c .

B . Changes o f c o n t r o l s t r a t e g i e s f o r t h e e x i s t i n g and f o r p l a n n e d water s t r u c t u r e s

- C o n t r o l o f r e s e r v o i r s , water uses,

- I n s t a l l a t i o n o f more e f f i c i e n t r e a l - t i m e w a t e r t r a n s f e r s , e t c .

f o r e c a s t i n g and c o n t r o l systems

C . A l t e r n a t i v e t e c h n o l o g i e s o f w a t e r use

- i n i n d u s t r y - f o r i r r i g a t i o n - for p u b l i c , e n v i r o n m e n t a l and o t h e r

purposes

D. A l t e r n a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s i n r e g a r d o f

- p r i o r i t i e s - economical a s p e c t s - s o c i a l , e n v i r o n m e n t a l and o t h e r aspec ts

-191-

P 7.7

L I

Fig. 3 Schematic representation o f CI r i ve r network with buhnce points (P), users [N) and reservoirs (S)

-192-

\ - I

\‘, \

90 ! 1 I I

\ \ 95

- -220 000 240000 260000 280000 (m3/d)

Drinking wdep supply

I I I I

4 6 8 (hmJ) Flood confrol volume

Fig. 4 Reliability of drinking wafer supply Rs and possible flood dQmages in dependence of the

a) amount of drinking wcrrep supply b) flood control volume

-193-

74 “i 72

C: reduced release before ond after fhe peok Flow period (0.7)

2 release 1 1 I I 1 1 I I I I

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Fig.5 Longferrn f l ood r isk below Jhe Saole reservoir system for U definite flood con trot volume [cur ve A )

-194-

-- 7 derived from observafions si m u la fed :

x 2 no reservoir a 3 one reservoli,

(uncontrolled ouf ie f )

/

1 recurrence inferval (years) I O 20

I I 1 1 90 50 70 5 2 7

exceedence probability (%)

.i

100

50

20

70

5

z

1

A I 7 90

I I 1 I I 50 70 5 2 7

exceedence probability (%)

Fig. 6 Probobill' fy distribution. func flons o f flaod peak flow ai U river cross-sect ion (75km2) for uncontrolled and con f r olled condiflbns.

-195-

Balance I n t e r n a l p o i n t I n d e x ( e x t e r n a l K n o t a t i o n )

P 1.1 1 P 1.21 2 P 1.3 3 P 1.7 4 P 1.75 5 P 1.8 6 P 2.1 7 P 2.2 8 P 3.1 9 P 3.3 10 P 4.2 11

T a b l e 1: D e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e c o n t i y u r a t i o n o f t h e r i v e r system i n f i g . 3.

Network conf i y u r a t i o n v e c t o r NEXT/\</

2 3 4 5 6

-999 U 5

10 4

10

Table 2: D e s c r i p t i o n o f some u s e r s i n t h e r i v e r b a s i n o f f i g . 3 .

x ) Remark: Smal le r p r e f e r e n c e number Z means h i g h e r p r i o r i t y

-19

6-

rl

r4

00

00

00

-

.-

. . . . -

rl

00

0

0

dd

0

o*

**

rl

00

0

0

dd