N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

43
Market Update November 2006

Transcript of N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Page 1: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Market Update

November 2006

Page 2: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Q1 200

6

Q2 200

6

Q3 200

6

GDP CPI CPI less Food and Energy

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 3: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Quarterly GDP and CPI

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Q1

'00

Q2

'00

Q3

'00

Q4

'00

Q1

'01

Q2

'01

Q3

'01

Q4

'01

Q1

'02

Q2

'02

Q3

'02

Q4

'02

Q1

'03

Q2

'03

Q3

'03

Q4

'03

Q1

'04

Q2

'04

Q3

'04

Q4

'04

Q1

'05

Q2

'05

Q3

'05

Q4

'05

Q1

'06

Q2

'06

Q3

'06

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

GDP CPI CPI less Food and Energy

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 4: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Prime Rate

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

12/1/

2000

12/1/

2001

12/1/

2002

12/1/

2003

12/1/

2004

12/1/

2005

Curre

nt

8.25%

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Page 5: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers

$12.25

$12.75

$13.25

$13.75

$14.25

$14.75

$15.25

$15.75

$16.25

$16.75

$17.25

$17.75

10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September2006

10/06-0.10%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

Average Hourly 1 month % change

$16.91

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 6: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Changes in Non-Farm Payroll Employment

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September2006

10/06

92,000

(000’s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 7: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Unemployment Rate

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September2006

10/06

4.4%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 8: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Average Unemployment andNew Light Vehicle Sales

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Octobe

r 200

6

14,000

16,000

18,000

Unemployment NLVS

(000’s)NADA’s estimate for

CY 2006

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Automotive News, and NADA Industry Analysis

Page 9: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Consumer Price Index andY-O-Y Wage Growth

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Sept

embe

r 200

6

CPI Wage Growth*

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - *Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers

Page 10: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Retail Gasoline and On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices

$0.70

$1.10

$1.50

$1.90

$2.30

$2.70

$3.10

$3.50

12/25

/00

12/31

/01

12/30

/02

12/29

/03

12/27

/04

*Sep

t. 5,

2005

12/26

/05

Last

Week

Novem

ber 6

, 200

6

Gas Diesel

Gas $2.20Diesel $2.506

*Price of gas peaked at $3.069

Source: Energy Information Administration Gas - regular grade, price per gallon (includes all taxes)

Page 11: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

New VehicleMarket

Page 12: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

What’s New on Wheels

Salzburg, Austria—Emily Post herself is not as refined as Lexus’s all-new, fourth-generation LS 460, in showrooms this month.

The leather steering wheel is buffed for six hours, and the headlights—inspired by Baccarat stemware—evoke lead crystal. Then there’s the massaging/reclining rear seat, 19-speaker Mark Levinson audio, power sunshades, and up to 11 airbags. A parking-guidance system even steers the car into place, using a rear camera and sonar.

Under the hood, a 380-hp V8—with 30 percent more gusto than its predecessor—is mated to the world’s first eight-speed automatic. Along with base and long-wheelbase models, a hybrid arrives next spring.

Price: $70,000 (est.). Mileage: 19 city/ 27 highway. Competition: Audi A8, BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S-Class.

Page 13: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

What’s New on Wheels

Washington, D.C.—Hipper inside and out, Saturn’s new Aura is built on the same platform as the Saab 9-3. The result: Euro-like ride and handling. Two trim levels, with choice of V6 engines. Options: heated seats/mirrors, steering-wheel audio controls, and remote-start system.

Price: $20,000. Mileage: 20 city/29 highway. Competition: Honda Accord, Hyundai Sonata, Nissan Altima, Toyota Camry.

Page 14: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle Sales

1,025

1,225

1,425

1,625

1,825

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct.

2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006

(000’s) 1.8m - all-time high

Source: Automotive News Data Center

Page 15: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Y-O-Y Volume % ChangeOctober 2006 YTD

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Truck-based SUVs

Pickups

MiniVans/Vans

Luxury Cars

Middle Cars

Large Cars

Small Cars

CUVs

Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports

Page 16: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Y-O-Y Market Share %October 2006 YTD

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Middle Cars

Pickups

Small Cars

CUVs

Truck-based SUVs

MiniVans/Vans

Luxury Cars

Large Cars

2006

2005

Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports

Page 17: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

New Light Vehicle SalesOctober 2006 YTD

Car and truck sales -2.9% versus same time period 2005

Trucks represented 50.5% of total sales versus 53.0% same time period 2005

Toyota Division and Honda Division gained both car and truck market share

Source: Automotive News Data Center

Page 18: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

New Light Vehicle SalesOctober 2006 YTD

Top five car market share gainers – Toyota Division, Ford Division, Lexus, Volkswagen Division, and Scion

Top five truck market share gainers –Toyota Division, Honda Division, Mercedes-Benz, Pontiac, and Kia

Source: Automotive News Data Center

Page 19: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle SalesOctober

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

October 2006 October 2005

Cars

Trucks

Total

Cars -3.5%Trucks 16.3%Total 6.1%

(000’s)

Source: Automotive News Data Center

Page 20: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle SalesOctober YTD

0

3,750

7,500

11,250

15,000

October 2006 YTD October 2005 YTD

Cars

Trucks

Total

Cars 2.2%Trucks -7.4%Total -2.9%

(000’s)

Source: Automotive News Data Center

Page 21: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Top Ten Selling Makes (New)October 2006 YTD

0

600

1200

1800

2400 Ford Division

Chevrolet

Toyota Division

Honda Division

Dodge

Nissan Division

Chrysler Division

Hyundai Division

GMC

Jeep

(000’s)

73.5% of total sales

Source: Automotive News Data Center

Page 22: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Top Ten Selling Models (New)October 2006 YTD

0

200

400

600

800 F-Series PU

Silverado PU

Camry

Ram PU

Accord

Civic

Impala

Corolla

Altima

Cobalt

(000’s)

23.8% of total sales

Source: Automotive News Data Center

Page 23: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Total New Light Vehicle Sales

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 NADA's est.2006

Source: Automotive News Data Center

(000’s)17.4m – all-time high

Page 24: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

New Light Vehicle SalesCars v. Trucks

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 October2006 YTD

Cars

Trucks

Trucks Outsell Cars(000’s)

Source: Automotive News Data Center

Page 25: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Franchised Dealer Light Vehicle Average Selling Price (New)

$28,123

$24,000

$26,000

$28,000

$30,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 August2006

Source: NADA Industry Analysis

Page 26: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Average Finance Rate and Loan Lengthat Auto Finance Companies

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

00 Q

4

01 Q

4

02 Q

4

03 Q

4

04 Q

4

05 Q

4Se

ptem

ber 2

006

48

51

54

57

60

63

66

Average Finance Rate Average Loan Length

months

Source: NADA Industry Analysis and Federal Reserve Board

Page 27: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Used VehicleMarket

Page 28: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Y-O-Y Used Vehicles Sold byFranchised and Independent Dealers

1,300

1,925

2,550

3,175

3,800

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct.

2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006

Source: CNW Marketing

(000’s)

Page 29: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Franchised Dealer Light Vehicle Average Selling Price (Used)

$15,514

$13,000

$14,000

$15,000

$16,000

$17,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 August2006

Source: NADA Industry Analysis

Page 30: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline

November 2006 YTD- 1 Year Old Vehicles

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang

Median -11.02% YTD, CY 2005 -7.94%

Eastern Edition

Page 31: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline

1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2005

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang

Eastern Edition

Page 32: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline

1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2004

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang

Eastern Edition

Page 33: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline

1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2003

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Escort Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang

Eastern Edition

Page 34: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline

November 2006 YTD - 2 Year Old Vehicles

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang

Median -11.30% YTD, CY 2005 -7.69%

Eastern Edition

Page 35: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline

2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2005

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang

Eastern Edition

Page 36: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline

2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2004

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Escort Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang

Eastern Edition

Page 37: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline

2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2003

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Escort Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang

Eastern Edition

Page 38: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Certified Used Vehicle SalesSeptember 2006 YTD

0

62,500

125,000

187,500

250,000

Chevrolet Toyota Division Honda Division Ford Division BMW Pontiac Dodge Nissan Division Mercedes-Benz GMC Lexus Buick Cadillac Chrysler Division Volkswagen Division Acura Volvo Jeep Lincoln - Mercury Audi Saturn Jaguar Saab Land Rover Porsche Mazda* Oldsmobile Subaru* Infiniti Mitsubishi Hummer Suzuki Hyundai*

Total Sales – 1,256,559

Source: Automotive News Data Center *Estimate

Page 39: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Used Vehicles Sold by Franchised New-Car Dealers

21.3

6,000

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Wholesaled

Retailed

Total

Source: NADA Industry Analysis

(000’s)

Page 40: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Franchised New-Car Dealer Source of Used Vehicle Retailed

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1995 2005

Trade-In

Auction

Street

Other

Source: NADA Industry Analysis

Page 41: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Light Vehicle SalesUsed / New

44.1

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 October2006YTD

FranchisedDealers

IndependentDealers

PrivateIndividuals

Total Used

New Vehicles

Source: CNW Marketing

(000’s)

Page 42: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

Data Sources

www.autoexecmag.comwww.autonews.comwww.bea.govwww.bls.govwww.cnwmr.comwww.eia.doe.govwww.federalreserve.govwww.nada.orgwww.nada.com/b2bwww.wardsauto.com

Page 43: N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

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