Complex Socio-Ecological

Dynamics driven by Extreme

Events in the Amazon

Apresentação II Reunião do INCLINE

São Paulo- 7 e 8 outubro 2013

Patricia Pinho

Center for Earth System Science, INPE

São José dos Campos, Brazil

Defining Adaptation…

• An adaptation, also called an adaptive trait, in biology is a trait

with a current functional role in the life history of an organism that is

maintained and evolved by means of natural selection.

• Adaptation refers to both the current state of being adapted and to

the dynamic evolutionary process that leads to the adaptation.

• Adaptations contribute to the fitness and survival of individuals.

• Organisms face a succession of environmental challenges as they

grow and develop and are equipped with an adaptive plasticity as

the phenotype of traits develop in response to the imposed

conditions.

• The developmental norm of reaction for any given trait is essential

to the correction of adaptation as it affords a kind of biological

insurance or resilience to varying environments.

Thinkers of Adaptation

• Lamarck’s is a proto-evolutionary

theory of the inheritance of acquired

traits , whose main purpose is to explain

adaptations by natural means.

• He proposed a tendency for organisms

to become more complex, moving up a

ladder of progress, plus "the influence of

circumstances", usually expressed as

use and disuse. His evolutionary ideas,

and those of Geoffroy, fail because they

cannot be reconciled with heredity.

Darwin broke with the tradition by emphasising

the flaws and limitations which occurred in the

animal and plant worlds.

Many other students of natural history

Before Darwin and Wallace, the concept of adaptation was accepted , and some also accepted evolution, without voicing their opinions as to the mechanism.

The real merit of Darwin and Wallace, and later Bates-> putting forward a mechanism whose significance had only been glimpsed previously.

A century later, experimental field studies and breeding experiments by such as Ford and Dobzhansky produced evidence that natural selection was not only the 'engine' behind adaptation, but was a much stronger force than had previously been thought

• The process of adaptation is never finally complete

• the environment changes little, and the species comes to fit its

surroundings better and better.

• the environment occur relatively rapidly, and then the species

becomes less and less well adapted.

• Seen like this, adaptation is a genetic tracking process, which

goes on all the time, but especially when the population cannot or

does not move to another, less hostile area.

Mayr, Ernst (1982) Freeman, S.; Herron, J.C. (2007).

Some Key Concepts about Adaptation

Adaptation and Environmental Change :

How ? • Discuss here how adaptation has been used on the Global Environmental

Change / Climatic Change forum.

The concepts of resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation are used to

analyze these and similar events. While these concepts are

becoming more important within the global change research

community, they do have diverse and somewhat separate

intellectual histories (Jeansen & Ostrom 2006).

• adaptation in society we need to understand the underlying causes of

vulnerability and mechanisms that enhance or undermine resilience – given

a profound analytical investigation;

– Ethnography

– Surveys

– * index is key to public policy and decision makers -> socioeconomic

development programme;

– the hurricane Katrina (2005)

– the Southeast Asian tsunami

(2004)

– Pakistan earthquake, together

with the bird flu (2005)

– continuing droughts in Africa,

dramatically illustrate the

potential vulnerability of

human society to disturbances

and variability (Jansen &

Ostrom 2009).

International broadcasted Events

all emphasize the importance of including both

social and ecological systems as well as their

mutual interactions when studying their dynamics

Confusions the use of

• socio-ecological systems (Gallopin et al., 1989)

• social–ecological systems (Berkes and Folke, 1998)

• coupled human–environment systems (Turner et al., 2003)

• Ostrom ‘s review socio-ecological system approach (2011)

• “ resilience determines the persistence of relationships within a system and is a measure of the ability of these systems to absorb changes of state variables, driving variables, and parameters, and still persist.’’

Holling (1973, p. 17)

Vulnerability is defined in different ways, but it generally

includes the attributes of persons or groups that

enable them to cope with the impact of disturbances,

like natural hazard -> livelihoods framework (Ribot,

2005; Adger et al. 2009; Scoones 1999)

• Adaptation to environmental variability has been a focus of anthropologists since the early 1900s. In the 1990s, scholars began to use the term adaptation for the study of the consequences of human-induced climatic change, without explicitly relating this back to the conceptual origins in anthropology (e.g., see Adger et al., 2005).

• Adaptation is generally perceived to include an adjustment in social–ecological systems in response to actual, perceived, or expected environmental changes and their impacts.

• Case study analysis tends to be more prominent in this literature than mathematical modeling.

• Problem with Sociobiologists - >

applying concepts borrowed from

Ecology and animals patterns and

interactions to human society- >

• Fitness ; optimal foraging theory,

cost best analysis, etc.

• “Hindus and Westerners alike see

in the meat-eating taboos of India a

triumph of morals over appetite.

This is a dangerous

misrepresentation of cultural

processes. Hindu vegetarianism

was a victory not of spirit over

matter but of reproductive over

productive forces.”Marvin Harris,

Cannibals and Kings: Origins of

Cultures

CO2 Increase Ozone depletion

Northern Hemisphere Temperature increases Number of Climatic Disasters Increase

Anthropogenic evidence of Earth System Alterations over the last

Century …

Steffen, W. et al 2003. IGBP 3rd Synthesis Book “Global Change and the Earth System

Rainfall Vale do Itajaí (2008)

Floodings in theAmazon (2009)

Rainfall São Paulo (2010)

Rainfall Rio de Janeiro (2010)

Rainfall Alagoas (2010)

Rainfalls/Landslides Ilha Grande (2010)

Drought Solimões river (2010)

Storm Agatha Central America (2010)

Drought S. Venezuela (2009)

Intense rainfalls S.Brazil/Uruguai (2009)

Rainfalls/Landslides Andes Central Peru (2009)

Heat Wave Santos (2010)

Some extreme unusual events during 2007-2010- South America

Cold Wave Bolivia (2010)

Floods Colombia (2008)

The Amazon Basin

•Largest Track of Tropical Forest in

the World

•up to 25% of all recognized

terrestrial plant species

• Global Provider of Ecosystem

Services :

•regulating hydrological cycles

•water quality

•nutrient cycling

•biodiversity

•cultural services

(Putz F and M 1993, Putz FE et al. 2008,

Asner et al. 2006, Azevedo-Ramos et al. 2006,

Merry et al. 2006, Menton et al. 2009)

The two regions of case

studies in the Amazon

Pinho et al in review

Developmentalists Programme : Agricultural expansion, Markets, Institutional

Arrangements which influence the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation.

Pristine forest and drivers of socio-ecological change

INPE- Prodes 2010

Climatic and Hydrological Regime

Constant Temperature

around the Year

Interannual Variability

associated with raining

and hydrological Patterns

Rainfall 2460 mmy-1

Drainage Area 6112 000

Km2

Annual Mean Discharge

209 000 (m3s-1)

Tomasella, Pinho et al 2012

The ecosystem: alternation between

aquatic and terrestrial phases.

• Floodplain locally

known as várzea.

• Seasonal alternations of

aquatic and terrestrial

conditions.

The flow of the rivers and the “flood pulse”

• Dictates the ecological patterns

• Human settlement

• Land tenure

• Production (economic activities)

• Social organization

source:

Pinho et al 2012, ; Junk 1997, Lima, 1999.

Hidden Social Dimension

• 30 million people living in the region

• 29 % of the population is indigenous but also rich diversity of other ethnic groups, including Afro-Brazilian communities, traditional inhabitants, and migrants from other regions of the country.

• Income –based poverty, in the Amazon affects up to 42% of the population – whereas for the entire country it is 28.8% (IBGE 2010)

• livelihoods of the poor residing in these areas are highly dependent upon, and sensitive to, changes in the provision of the prevailing ecosystem services.

In normal year, Madeira river reach its

maximum water level 2-3 months before

Rio Negro.

Amazonas

River in

Itacoatiara

(Meade et al. 1991)

The Amazon Basin

Tomasella, Pinho et al 2012

• Severe droughts in Amazonia, like that of 1997 and 2010 are El Niño-related.

• 2005 drought related to the rainfall anomalies over SW Amazonia driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical North Atlantic.

• Severe Floods ( 2009 and 2012) associated with La Ninã

•Both Extremes returning in 100 years time !

(Tomasela, Pinho et al 2012)

Extremes in the Amazon

Interannual Variability is increasing -> creating uncertainty

Bigger Peaks

*Decreased minimal flows

*increasing Amplitudes

Pinho, P. , Jose Marengo, and Mark Stafford Smith in review

Pinho, P. , Jose Marengo, and Mark Stafford Smith in review

Severe Droughts

Impact on Local Communities

• High fish mortality

• Isolation

• High mortality of crops

• Difficulty to cultivate subsistence crops (for instance manioc – staple food)

• Lack of clean drinking water

• Transportation

• Health

• Education Solimões River , 2005 Drought

Tomasella, J. P Pinho et al. “ The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia:

Floodplain Hydrology and their potential ecological and human impacts” in press at Climatic Change

2005 drought

Isolated communities in Silves , central Amazon

Fluvial Transportation interrupted

Isolated communities

Closed communication to get access to water and goods, and services

Extreme Floods : Impact on Local Communities

(urban and rural)

Low Yield return in fisheries -

> Fish spread out during

high water level & difficult

to catch in normal years –

extreme floods it is even

worse.

Difficult to maintain livestock

and husbandry

High mortality of crops

Lack of clean drinking water

Health : incidence of malaria

outbreaks diarrhea

increases specially in

infants and elderly

Infrastructure (houses and

business) destroyed

Source: Folha de Sao Paulo (Maio, 2012)

Source: Folha de Sao Paulo (Maio 2012)

Local Perceptions and responses about Extremes

Pinho, P. , Jose Marengo, and Mark Stafford Smith in review

Uncertainty in extremes altering Coping Range of

the population thus increasing vulnerability

Public Policy Responses in Extreme in the

Amazon

• The civil defense are in charge:

– to give technical support and financing reconstruction activities.

– preventive actions

– to evaluate and reduce risks

– readiness for actions as mitigation

– problem solving

– In adverse events to alleviate and reduce human suffering

• The reality for Civil Defense Action in the Amazon:

– Lack of Personal and Capacity at the Municipal Level

– Delay in actions during extreme events

High

Transaction

Costs

Communication

Impact = Delay

in response to

target action

Reduced Transaction

Costs in a Nested

Enterprise

Civil Defense Operationalization in Extreme Events in the Amazon

Governance Levels

Federal

Impacted Remote

Communities

State

Municipal

Risk Evaluation

Pinho, P. , Jose Marengo, and Mark Stafford Smith in review

Governance:

implications for policy and management responses

• Better governance to secure social wellbeing, food and livelihood and natural resources conservation under the uncertainty of extremes.

• The Civil Defense should invest more time and resources in proactive instead of reactive actions in the region.

• The State could collaborate with investing in better roads and transportation , education and establishment of clean drinking water (wells) –all basic needs that should be provided in order to increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of the local inhabitants of the Amazon basin face global/ regional environmental change.

• The actions at the federal and state level needs to be a nested enterprise that would reduce severely the number of people impacted and disrupted by extreme events like this in the Amazon basin.

Implications for Policy and

Conservation strategies

Local communities in the Amazon have over time developed communal rules to

manage and protect natural resources (Pinho et al 2012) -> other examples

include territorial demarcation as ‘indigenous land’ or other types of

protected areas, for instance : Sustainable development reserves,

Extractive Reserves , etc.

As extreme events still reaching them , the tendency is to increase the rural –

urban migration -> leading to urban problems: lack of employment,

education, violence, and food security ;

Large areas of the forest will be abandoned and prone to increase depletion by

large scale agro-business , logging, mining , etc. as governance of the large

scale Amazon is weak and limited on monitoring and enforcement;

Final Remarks

• Local communities in the Amazon are really well adapted to the

interannual variability – and respond very well and in an optimum manner

to this;

• For them , seasons are hydrological and over time have developed skills

and shared knowledge systems to cope with and manage their natural

resources

• As the extreme events are becoming more frequent it is uncertainty that is

increasing the vulnerability of these communities rather variability.

• The Amazonia communities are vulnerable but resilient , however these

extreme events are out of their learned coping range – haven’t

experienced it over their life time.

• Extremes in the Amazon only exacerbates the remoteness of these

communities: from market, basic infrastructure, education, health and

governance.

Adaptation Futures 2014 Programme

Conference Themes

“…if we can identify the true source of our own desire for an unspoiled natural paradise…we might see not only the richness of life forms but also the experience that exists within Amazonia. Then, we can resist the tendency to dehumanize or erase whole populations and we will be able to respond in a less uniform and effective manner to this world of different people, plants and animals.”

“ Entangled Edens : Visions of the Amazon”: Candace Slater, 2002

Obrigada!