Appendix978-1-137-59613... · 2017-08-28 · 2010 (%) 2014 (%) World 100 100 100 100 100 100...

233© Th e Author(s) 2017K. Verico, Th e Future of the ASEAN Economic Integration, DOI 10.1057/978-1-137-59613-0

Appendix

Table P.1 Share of regional trade fl ows (% of Merchandise Export) 2006

Region North America

South and Central America Europe

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Africa

Middle East Asia Total

North America 53.9 6.4 16.6 0.5 1.3 2.5 18.7 100 South and

Central America 31.4 25.9 20.1 1.4 2.6 1.8 14.4 100

Europe 8.7 1.3 73.6 2.9 2.4 2.6 7.4 100 Commonwealth

of Independent States (CIS)

5.7 1.8 57.9 18.9 1.3 3.1 10.7 100

Africa 22.0 3.1 40.8 0.4 9.0 1.7 20.0 100 Middle East 11.2 0.7 15.9 0.5 3.2 11.1 52.6 100 Asia 21.6 2.1 18.4 1.5 2.1 3.4 50.0 100

Source : http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2007_e/its07_world_trade_dev_e.htm , as of Table 1.5 accessed October 26, 2015

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2007_e/its07_world_trade_dev_e.htm

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2007_e/its07_world_trade_dev_e.htm

234 Appendix

Table P.2 World’s FDI infl ows (%) by host regions 1990–2014

% FDI infl ows to world 1990 (%)

1995 (%)

2000 (%)

2005 (%)

2010 (%)

2014 (%)

World 100 100 100 100 100 100 European Union 47 38 50 49 27 21 North America 27 20 28 14 17 12 Africa 1 2 1 3 3 4 East Asia 3 12 4 10 9 11 South-East Asia 6 8 2 5 8 11 India 0 1 0 1 2 3 Australia and New Zealand 5 4 1 −3 3 4 Latin America and the Caribbean 4 9 6 8 10 13 Other Countries 6 6 8 14 21 20

Source : Author’s calculation using UNCTAD, FDI/TNC database Note : European Union of 28 members, North America covers Canada and USA,

East Asia covers China, Japan, and South Korea, and Southeast Asia covers all ten ASEAN members

South-East Asia 1995 (%)

2000 (%)

2005 (%)

2010 (%)

2014 (%)

Brunei Darussalam 2 2 1 0 0 Cambodia 1 1 1 1 1 Indonesia 15 −20 19 13 17 Lao PDR 0 0 0 0 1 Malaysia 20 17 9 9 8 Myanmar 1 0 0 6 1 Philippines 5 10 4 1 5 Singapore 42 69 42 52 51 Thailand 7 15 19 9 9 Vietnam 6 6 5 8 7

Source : Author’s calculation using UNCTAD, FDI/TNC database

Table P.3 FDI infl ows in ASEAN by host countries (%)

Appendix 235

Table P.4 FDI infl ows to ASEAN countries by host country (%) 2014

Country

Share to total, 2014 Share to total net infl ow, 2014

Intra- ASEAN

Extra- ASEAN

Total net infl ow

Intra- ASEAN

Extra- ASEAN

Total net infl ow

Brunei 0.6 0.4 0.4 24.9 75.1 100 Cambodia 1.5 1.2 1.3 21.6 78.4 100 Indonesia 55.2 7.9 16.4 60.4 39.6 100 Lao PDR 0.6 0.7 0.7 15.1 84.9 100 Malaysia 11.4 7.1 7.9 25.9 74.1 100 Myanmar 2.8 0.2 0.7 72.2 27.8 100 Philippines 0.3 5.5 4.6 1.3 98.7 100 Singapore 18.6 60.4 52.9 6.3 93.7 100 Thailand 2.7 9.7 8.5 5.7 94.3 100 Vietnam 6.3 6.8 6.8 16.8 83.2 100 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 17.9 82.1 100 ASEAN 6 1 88.8 91.0 90.6 17.5 82.5 100 CLMV 2 11.2 9.0 9.4 21.4 78.6 100

Source : ASEAN Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Database as of May 26, 2015 on http://www.asean.org/news/item/foreign-direct-investment-statistics

1 ASEAN 6 by alphabetical order are Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore

2 ASEAN 4 by alphabetical order are Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Vietnam

http://www.asean.org/news/item/foreign-direct-investment-statistics

236 Appendix

Table 2.1 Selected variables, hypothesis, and sources of data model of AFTA analysis

Independent variable

Expected sign Source of data

Aggregate FDI Infl ows for testing the impact of AFTA on Investment Creation

1. Value of GDP (GDP)

+ 1. ADB Statistic

2. Value of Consumption (CONS)

+ 2. ADB Statistic

+ 3. ADB Statistic (ADB Statistic &

The World Bank – GDF)

3. Percentage of Economic Growth (GR)

+ 4. ADB Statistic Intra-Regional

Trade (IRT) for testing the impact of AFTA on trade creation

4. Number of Population (POP)

+ 5. ADB Statistic

5. Number of Employed Worker (EMPL)

ARIC, the ADB, for calculation IMTP & country level (adapted from Verico, 2007)

+ 6. The World Bank (World Development Indicator/WDI)

6. Government Expenditure on Education (EDU)

+ 7. The WB (WDI)

+ 8. WTO Statistic 7. Electricity

Consumption (ELECONS)

+ 9. ADB Statistic

− 10. ADB Statistic and IMF (Country Economic Outlook)

Appendix 237

Independent variable


8. Degree of Openness (DOO)

+ 11. The World Bank (Global Development Finance: Profi t Remittance on FDI in US$)

9. Real Wage (RW)

10. Exchange Rate (ER)

11. FDI Profi t (FDIPROFIT)

+ 12. Own calculation based on ARIC, the ADB Dataset and WTO Statistic

+ 13. Year of signature (1992)

12. Intra-Regional Trade

+ 14. Year of fi rst signature BFTA (Malaysia:2004; Thailand:2005 & Indonesia:2006)

13. Dummy AFTA 14. Dummy BFTA

Source : Author’s Hypotheses

Table 2.1 (continued)

238 Appendix

Table 3.1 BFTAs of fi ve ASEAN founding members and ASEAN+3 members 2010

Country BFTA

China Mexico (1999), ASEAN (2003), Australia, Costa Rica, Peru (2010), Singapore (2009), Pakistan (2007), India (2007), Hong Kong (2004), Macao (2004), Chile (2006), New Zealand (2008)

Japan ASEAN (2008), Indonesia (2008), Philippines (2008), Malaysia (2006), Thailand (2007), Singapore (2006), Vietnam (2009), Brunei (2008), Mexico (2005), Chile (2007), Switzerland (2009)

South Korea ASEAN, Singapore (2006), India, EFTA (2006), Chile (2004), Peru, USA

Singapore China, Japan (2002), South Korea (2006), India (2005), Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Australia (2003), EFTA (2003) Chile, Jordan (2006), Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, New Zealand (2001), Australia (2003), Panama(2006), Peru (2009), USA (2004)

Malaysia Japan (2006), Pakistan (2008) Thailand Japan (2007), Australia (2005), India, Peru, New Zealand (2005),

Singapore, Laos (1991) Philippines Japan (2006) Indonesia Japan (2008)

Source : Author’s identifi cation based on http://www.worldtradelaw.net/fta/ftadatabase/ftas.asp , http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicAllRTAList.aspx

Table 3.2 Selected variables, hypothesis, and sources of data model of BFTA analysis

Dependent variable Independent variable


FDI Infl ows at country level for testing BFTA impact on Investment Creation in own country

1. Value of GDP (GDP)

+ 1. ADB Statistic

2. Value of Consumption (CONS)

+ 2. ADB Statistic

3. Percentage of Economic Growth (GR)

+ 3. ADB Statistic

4. Number of Population (POP)

+ 4. ADB Statistic

(ADB Statistic & The World Bank – GDF)

5. Number of Employed Worker (EMPL)

+ 5. ADB Statistic

http://www.worldtradelaw.net/fta/ftadatabase/ftas.asp

http://www.worldtradelaw.net/fta/ftadatabase/ftas.asp

http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicAllRTAList.aspx

Appendix 239



6. Government Expenditure on Education (EDU)

+ 6. The World Bank (World Development Indicator/WDI)

7. Electricity Consumption (ELECONS)

+ 7. The WB (WDI)


+ 8. WTO Statistic

9. Real Wage (RW) + 9. ADB Statistic 10. Exchange Rate

(ER) - 10. ADB Statistic and

IMF (Country Economic Outlook)

11. FDI Profi t (FDIPROFIT)

+ 11. The World Bank (Global Development Finance/GDF)

12. Intra-Regional Trade (IRT) at country level

+ 12. Verico, 2007

13. Dummy BFTA + 13. Year of fi rst BFTA’s signature (Malaysia: 2004; Thailand: 2005, Indonesia: 2006)

14. Dummy AFTA + 14. Comprehensive implementation of AFTA is in 1999 (Nesadurai 2003)

Source : Author’s hypotheses

Table 3.2 (continued)

240 Appendix

Tab

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Appendix 241

Table 4.1 Selected variables, hypothesis, and sources of data model of ITRO analysis



FDI Infl ows in Rubber 1. Percentage of Economic Growth (GR)

+ 1. ADB Statistic

2. Exchange Rate (ER)

- 2. ADB Statistic and IMF (Country Economic Outlook)

(Adopted from The Ministry of Trade Republic of Indonesia, 2010, collected Approved FDI Infl ows in rubber from each country investment board)

3. Electricity Consumption (ELECONS)

+ 3. World Bank (World Development Indicator/WDI)


+ 4. WTO Statistic

5. Price of Natural Rubber (PRUB)

+ 5. FAO Statistical Data

6. Production Volume of Natural Rubber (PRODRUB)

- 6. FAO Statistical Data

7. Dummy ITRO + 7. Year of ITRO’s establishment (2001)

Source : Author’s hypotheses

242 Appendix

Table 4.2 Market proportion founding members of ITRO (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand/IMT) and the rest of exporters (Non-IMT) in tonnes 1988–2008

Year IMT Non-IMT Total %IMT %Non-IMT

1988 297,641 128,819 426,460 70 30 1989 406,176 150,425 556,601 73 27 1990 302,713 153,717 456,430 66 34 1991 270,229 44,715 314,944 86 14 1992 310,533 65,074 375,607 83 17 1993 260,255 55,948 316,203 82 18 1994 306,807 53,781 360,588 85 15 1995 195,501 73,333 268,834 73 27 1996 237,837 85,880 323,717 73 27 1997 349,224 93,128 442,352 79 21 1998 361,915 89,794 451,709 80 20 1999 13,286 428,645 441,931 3 97 2000 348,309 90,509 438,818 79 21 2001 15,064 488,067 503,131 3 97 2002 501,257 85,085 586,342 85 15 2003 525,500 92,572 618,072 85 15 2004 31,992 665,040 697,032 5 95 2005 938,489 110,794 1,049,283 89 11 2006 25,310 967,306 992,616 3 97 2007 1,014,300 115,279 1,129,579 90 10 2008 951,858 168,932 1,120,790 85 15

Source : Author’s calculation based on FAO statistic data

Product description – IO 2005 Rubber Top rank

Code 12 Backward Linkages (BL) 0.89 BL Rank 125 75% Forward Linkages (FL) 1.49 FL Rank 16 10% Wage and Salary 0.57 W&S Rank 7 5% Profi t 0.53 Profi t Rank 50 30% Indirect Tax (IT) 0.03 IT Rank 56 35% Export to Final Demand 0.00005 Export Rank 123 71%

Source : Author’s calculation with Indonesia Input–Output table

Table 4.3 Rubber impact on Indonesia economy input output table analysis 2005

Appendix 243

Table 6.1 Stationarity test on pair infl ation rate (CPI) of ASEAN-5 founding mem-bers and East Asian countries (China, Japan, and Korea) 1988–2008

Country ADF statistic

test

Rejected unit root hypothesis (Stationarity test) 1% critical value- Lag 1

Probability on t-stat

Indonesia −4.78 1st difference 0.38 Malaysia −4.13 1st difference 0.07 Philippines −5.03 1st difference 0.09 Singapore −4.94 2nd difference 0.001 Thailand −5.62 2nd difference 0.24 China −4.10 1st difference 0.001 Japan −4.64 2nd difference 0.0002 Korea −5.17 1st difference 0.04

Source : Author’s calculation using ADB Data

Table 6.2 Error correction mechanism pair infl ation rate (CPI) of ASEAN-5 found-ing members and East Asian countries (China, Japan, and Korea) 1988–2008

ECM China Japan Indonesia Malaysia Philippines ThailandSingaporeKorea

Korea

ThailandStationarity Test & One Way DirectionSignificant & StableInsignificant & Stable

Insignificant t-stat:0.19

Stability:0.3

Significant** t-stat:0.03

Stability:0.4


Stability:0.4


Stability:0.4


Stability:0.5

Significant* t-stat:0.07

Stability:0.4


Stability:0.4


Stability:0.56


Stability:-0.19


Stability:-0.16


Stability:-0.01


Stability:0.01


Stability:0.3


Stability:0.09


Stability:0.06


Stability:0.06


Stability:0.15


Stability:-0.07


Stability:-0.4


Stability:-0.1


Stability:-0.3


Stability:-0.04


Stability:0.08


Stability:-0.07


Stability:0.2


Stability:0.25


Stability:0.03


Stability:0.06

Singapore

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Japan

China


244 Appendix

Table 6.3 Cointegration test on infl ation rate (CPI) of ASEAN-5 founding mem-bers and East Asian countries (China, Japan, and Korea) 1988–2008

JohansenCointegrationTest

Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Philippines China JapanKoreaThailand

IndonesiaMalaysia

SingaporePhilippinesChina

JapanKorea

Thailand

not cointegratingCointegrating


Table 6.4 Exchange rate and infl ation rate difference Yuan China and all observed countries 1988–2008

a b1 b2 (P-P*)=(b1-b2)

Yuan/Rp −6.79 0.34 −0.05 0.40 Yuan/RM 0.74 0.00 0.06 −0.06 Yuan/Baht −1.71 0.02 0.12 −0.10 Yuan/Peso −1.68 0.12 −0.06 0.19 Yuan/Sing$ 1.56 −0.08 −0.06 0.02 Yuan/Won −4.69 0.06 −0.19 0.24 Yuan/Yen −2.82 0.07 0.25 0.18 Yuan/Peso 0.76 0.11 0.29 −0.19

Appendix 245

Nominal ER P-P* Potential trade relation

Yuan/Rp 0.4 Substitution Yuan/RM −0.06 Complementary Yuan/Baht −0.1 Complementary Yuan/Peso 0.19 Substitution Yuan/Sing$ −0.02 Complementary Yuan/Won 0.24 Substitution Yuan/Yen 0.18 Complementary Yen/Peso −0.19 Complementary


Table 6.5 Relationship characters on exchange rate and infl ation rate difference to trade relations 1988–2008

55,150

41,344

10,760

5,370 3,630 3,470 1,890 1,650 1,270 1,020 -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Singapore Brunei Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Laos Myanmar Cambodia

GNI per Capita (US$ Current), 2014

Fig. P.1 GNI per capita per year (Current US$) of ASEAN countries 2014 ( Source : Author’s illustration using the data of http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD )

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD


246 Appendix

1% 0.5%

5%

11%

41%

16% 15%

1%

9%

2%

12%

1%

13%15%

36%

11%8%

0.5%3%

1%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

% Popula�on, % GDP, 2014

%Pop %GDP

Fig. P.2 Share to ASEAN’s GDP & population (%) ASEAN member states 2014 ( Source: Author’s calculation and illustration using the data from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD )

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Intra Regional Trade (%)

Intra Regional Trade Indonesia Intra Regional Trade Malaysia

Intra Regional Trade Thailand Intra Regional Trade Philippines

Fig. P.3 Patterns of intra-regional trade of observed ASEAN members, 1988–2014 ( Source: Author’s calculation and illustration using Global Development Finance (GDF) data of the World Bank. Formula of calculation is adopted from Verico (2007). Calculated data from 2008 to 2014 is estimated data based on the formula)



Appendix 247

- 10 000.0

- 5 000.0

-

5 000.0

10 000.0

15 000.0

20 000.0

25 000.0

FDI Inflows (Million US$)

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

Fig. P.4 Patterns of FDI infl ows of observed ASEAN members, 1988–2014 ( Source: Author’s illustration using UNCTAD, FDI/TNC database)

Developing Country(Member B)

BFTA vs AFTA

Developed Country

(Member A) 30/2010/15AFTA

60/540/10Direct Bilateral

AFTADirect Bilateral

Fig. 1.1 Prisoner’s dilemma of developed and developing country of ASEAN members ( Sources: Author’s illustration using prisoner’s dilemma principle)

248 Appendix

Fig. 1.2 Open regionalism in ASEAN in comparison to close regionalism in EU ( Sources: Author’s illustration)

78%

68%

79%

72%

80%

78%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062007

ITRO ITRO P ITRO P V

ITRO + Philippines &

ITRO + Philippines

ITRO

Fig. 4.1 Share of ITRO to world natural rubber production volume (%) 1988–2008 ( Sources: Author’s calculation using FAO Statistic Database)

Philippines

Country Levels of World Natural Rubber’s Main Producers1988-2008

3500000

3000000

2500000

2000000

1500000

1000000

500000

01988

Bolivia Brazil Cambodia Cameroon China

Ghana

Liberia

Papua New Guinea

Gabon

Indonesia

Nigeria

Viet Nam

Ecuador

India

Myanmar

Thailand

Cote d’ivoire

Guinea

Mexico

Sri Lanka

Guatemala

Malaysia

Philippines

Congo, DemocraticRepublic of

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia

Vietnam

Fig. 4.2 Country levels of world natural rubber’s main producers 1988–2008 ( Sources: Author’s calculation using FAO Statistic Database)

-200000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

0 200000 400000 600000 8000001000000 1200000

IMT

NO

NIM

T

NONIMT vs. IMT

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000

NONIMT

IMT

IMT vs. NONIMT

Fig. 4.3 Trade relation between IMT and rest of the world (Non-IMT) 1988–2008 ( Source: Author’s illustration using FAO statistic data)

Appendix 249

250 Appendix

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Total (World) CNE Line

Year of ITRO’s

establishment

565,818 tonnes/year: Q1,2t*

Competitive > Q1,2t* > Collusive

CollusiveCompetitive

Fig. 4.4 Total quantity of trade between IMT and Non-IMT compared to its Cournot-Nash equilibrium line 1988–2008 ( Source: Author’s illustration using FAO statistic data)

Fig. 4.5 Rubber impact on Indonesia economy Input Output table analysis (value) 2000 and 2005 ( Source: Author’s calculation using Indonesia’s I-O table 2000 & 2005)

Appendix 251

Fig. 4.6 Indonesia’s rubber market orientation 1988–2008 ( Source: Author’s illustration using FAO statistic data)

Fig. 4.7 Illustration for the connection between CNE (microeconomic analysis) and Indonesia’s I-O analysis (2000 and 2005) ( Sources: Author’s illustration)

252 Appendix

Model 2.1 Indirect impact of intra-regional trade (trade creation) on FDI infl ows (investment creation) and direct impact of AFTA on FDI infl ows

Dependent variable: FDI infl ows

Direct impact of AFTA on Intra regional trade (LOG)

Indirect impact of AFTA on FDI infl ows (LIN)

Direct impact of AFTA on FDI infl ows (LIN)

Fixed effect R-squared 0.32 0.47 0.33 F-statistic 8.98 7.99 9.56 Log GDP −1.36*** 10,951*** 4,747*** Log RW 2.92*** −9,455*** Dropped Log ER 2.25*** −5,381** Dropped Log Pop Dropped −22,281*** −26,883*** Log EMPL Dropped −18,408** Dropped DOO Dropped 9,214*** 7,014*** AFTA 0.002 Irrelevance −112 BFTA Dropped 1,037 Dropped Log intra- trade Irrelevance 387 Dropped

Source : Author calculation, ***signifi cance at 1%, **signifi cance at 5%, and *signifi cance at 10%

Model 2.2 The impact of intra-regional trade and FDI infl ows in system equation models of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimator (SURE) and Simultaneous Equation Model Estimator (SEME/3 SLS)

Statistical indicator and independent variables

Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Estimator (SURE)

Simultaneous Equation Model Estimator (SEME/3 SLS)

FDI infl ows Intra-regional trade

FDI infl ows Intra-regional trade

Dependent variable (LIN)

Dependent variable (LOG)

Dependent variable LIN)

Dependent variable (LOG)

CHI2 29.23 77.84 26 75.36 Probability 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Log GDP Dropped 4.89*** Dropped 4.98*** Log Cons 10,430** Dropped 15,740** Dropped Log Pop −15,469*** Dropped 16,878** Dropped Log employ 4,160*** −4.85*** Dropped −5.04*** Log GNP/Cap −8,935** −5.18*** −13,391** −5.23*** Log electricity Dropped 1.3*** Dropped 1.24*** DOO Dropped −1.44*** Dropped −1.61*** AFTA1 Dropped 0.14 Dropped 0.26 Log intra-trade −756* Dropped −2,368*** Irrelevance FDI infl ows Irrelevance Irrelevance Irrelevance 0.000037


Appendix 253

Model 3.1 AFTA, BFTA, and macroeconomic factors on FDI infl ows at country level

Dependent variable: FDI infl ows country level Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines

R-squared 0.81 0.92 0.92 0.19 D-W 2.24 1.49 2.2 2.8 F-stat 4.8 17.8 14.76 0.31 Constant Coeffi cient 16,245 −10,149 12,634 −873 t-stat 0.48 −0.6 4 −0.21 Probability 0.64 0.56 0.0023 0.84 Consumption 2.19E-08 −4.94E-

07 *** −2.69E-09 1.40E-09

0.38 −4.6 −0.04 0.05 0.71 0.0007 0.97 0.96

Elecons 36.28 3.54 7.65 *** −2.16 Lag (−1) 1.5 0.9 2.97 −0.37

0.16 0.4 0.01 0.72 RW 4.8

0.67 0.53

4.11 *** 3.21 0.008

−1.73 −0.95 0.36

0.73 0.4 0.7

BFTA −5,035 ** −2.17 0.05

3,168 ** 2.22 0.048

2,594 1.15 0.28

846 0.44 0.67

AFTA 281 0.27 0.79

−6.07 −0.44 0.67

−188 −0.29 0.77

−363 −0.29 0.77

ER Lag(−1) Lag(−2) Lag(−1) −0.52 −951 −175.4 ** −12.6 −1.47 −0.23 −2.54 −0.13 0.17 0.81 0.029 0.9

FDIProfi t 2.07 0.98 0.34

2.02.E07 0.6 0.56

1.54E-08 −0.02 0.98

−1.34E-06 −1.27 0.23

Intra Regional Trade −10,930 −0.37 0.72

−3.145 −0.11 0.91

−57,145 −1.63 0.13

32,225 1.1 0.29


254 Appendix

Model 3.2 Reduced form estimation on BFTA and macroeconomic factors on FDI infl ows at country level

Dependent variable : FDI infl ows country level Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines

R-squared 0.74 0.92 0.94 0.3 D-W 1.7 1.69 1.87 2. 7 F-stat 10.8 45.69 41.34 Constant Coeffi cient −12,246 *** −13,359 *** 14,419 *** Dropped t-stat −3.8 −4.68 6.19 Consumption Dropped −4.74E-

07 *** −7.6

−6.14E- 08 ***

−5.03

Dropped

Elecons 26.29 *** 2.83 *** 7.77 *** Dropped Lag (−1) 3.98 3.87 8.63 RW 7.49 *** 4.18 *** Dropped Dropped

4.33 7.86 BFTA −3,558 ** 3,187 *** Dropped 2,254

−2 2.94 1.19 AFTA Dropped Dropped Dropped Dropped ER Lag(−1)

−0.41 ** −2.12

Dropped Lag(−2) −189 *** −5.12

Dropped

FDIProfi t Dropped Dropped 1.82E-06 *** 6.75

Dropped

Intra Regional Trade

Dropped Dropped −87,585 *** −4.18

48,520*** 3.46

POP*** −81 GNP Cap** 17.8 GDP** −2.35E-07


Appendix 255

Model 4.1 Panel data (PLS) of the impact of ITRO on FDI infl ows in natural rubber: sub-regional economic agreement, case of IMT’s natural rubber (ITRO)

Dependent variable: FDI infl ows in rubber

Pooled least square

Pooled EGLS cross section (SUR) Fixed effect

Pooled EGLS cross section Random effect

R-squared 0.87 0.92 0.80 Durbin-Watson 0.76 1.6 0.98 F-statistic 72 89 44.3 Constant Coeffi cient −72.07 *** −64.9 *** −73.81 *** t-stat −5.15 −6.59 −3.93 Elecons 0.023 *** 0.04 *** 0.04 ***

5.13 11.29 6.77 ER −0.002 ** −0.003 *** −0.002 ** Lag (−1) −1.8 −4.48 −1.85 PRODRUB 7.69E-05 *** 6.14E-05 *** 6.57E-05 ***

15.16 10 12.46 PRUB −0.01 ** −0.01 *** −0.01 **

−2.49 −3.91 −2.46 ITRO −17 * −12.1 ** −21.2 **

−1.86 −2.39 −2.47 Fixed effect Indonesia :22.3

Malaysia :−32 Thailand :9.7

Random effect Indonesia : 20 Malaysia : −28.5 Thailand : 8.5



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268 Bibliography

Watson, J. W. (2008). Strategy: An introduction to game theory (2nd ed.). New York: W.W. Norton & Company.

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Source of Data

http://ditjenkpi.depdag.go.id/website_kpi/fi les/content/4/ http://laborsta.ilo.org/2009 http://www.adb.org/Documents/Studys/Key_Indicators/2009/xls/INO.xls http://www.aseansec.org/ http://www.bkpm.go.id/ http://www.bps.go.id/ http://www.duke.edu/~charvey/Classes/wpg/bfglosf.htm#foreign_direct_investment http://www.faostat.fao.org http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm http://www.madehow.com/Volume-3/Latex.html http://www.unctad.org/infocomm/anglais/rubber/ecopolicies.html http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm#statisticdata http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/2009 (WDI and GDF)

http://ditjenkpi.depdag.go.id/website_kpi/files/content/4/

http://laborsta.ilo.org/2009

http://www.adb.org/Documents/Studys/Key_Indicators/2009/xls/INO.xls

http://www.aseansec.org/

http://www.bkpm.go.id/

http://www.bps.go.id/

http://www.duke.edu/~charvey/Classes/wpg/bfglosf.htm#foreign_direct_investment

http://www.faostat.fao.org/

http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm

http://www.madehow.com/Volume-3/Latex.html

http://www.unctad.org/infocomm/anglais/rubber/ecopolicies.html

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm#statisticdata

http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/2009


A Akamatsu, K. , ix, 45, 98, 189 Alaouze, C. M. , 155 Aoki, T. , 46, 191 ASEAN

ASEAN umbrella , viii, 113, 124, 125, 135, 204, 205, 225, 230, 231

ASEAN+3 (ASEAN plus China, Japan and Korea) , xii

ASEAN Bond Markets Initiative , 80, 84

ASEAN China FTA , 43, 193, 195

ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) , vii, 2, 6–7, 15, 18, 21, 22, 42, 44, 45, 54, 69, 78, 84, 101, 137, 148, 182n6, 185–202, 202n3, 214, 229

ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services , 20, 69, 82, 102, 194, 206

ASEAN Free Trade Area , vii, ix, 4, 7, 12, 20, 21, 52, 58, 93, 145, 185, 189, 206

ASEAN Minus X , 69 ASEAN-noodle-bowl phenomenon ,

27 ASEAN Plus framework , 45, 206 ASEAN-Plus One , 16, 193 ASEAN-Plus Th ree (APT) , 16, 187,

216, 217 ASEAN Surveillance Process , 79, 84,

199 ASEAN Way , 55, 56, 80, 122, 231 Asian noodle-bowl phenomenon , 6 Asia Pacifi c Economic Cooperation ,

19, 81, 205, 231 Association of Southeast Asian

Nations (ASEAN) , vii, 185

Index

270 Index

B Balassa, B. , vii, 51, 62, 63, 153 Balasubramanyam, V. N. , 49 Balboa, J. , 54, 60, 61 Baldwin, R. E. , 57, 120, 123,

143n17, 189 Bali Concord II , 71 Baltagi, B. H. , 26, 47, 186 band wagon eff ect , 31 Barrell, R. , 37 Berg, D. M. , 28, 98 Bhagwati, J. , 26, 51, 61, 105, 106,

114, 120, 138 Bilateral Free Trade Agreement

(BFTA) , 7, 21, 59, 107, 113, 115, 116, 128, 203, 223

Bilateral Free Trade Agreements , 1, 128 Blanchard, O. , 86, 87 Blomström, M. , 26, 48 Bowles, P. , viii, x, 25, 53–5, 72, 94,

185 Buckley, P. J. , 34 building block , 9, 138, 145, 201, 228

C Carriere, C. , 60 Cheong, D. , xvii, 26, 42, 43,

103 Chey, H-kyu , 15, 197 Chiang Mai Initiative , 18, 77, 80,

84, 197, 199, 207, 232n3 Cobb-Douglas production

function , 30 Common Eff ective Preferential

Tariff , xix, 4, 17, 20, 54, 131, 187, 206

Common Market , vii, 53, 63, 71, 73, 78, 154, 232n3

convergent , 193, 201, 228 Cordenillo, R. L. , 43 Country of Origin , 59, 61, 89 Custom Union , vii, 18, 43, 45, 53,

61, 63, 65, 71, 72, 78, 91, 102, 113, 120, 121, 154, 190, 196, 201, 221n6, 228, 230, 232n3

custom union , 15, 30, 44, 45, 83, 91, 109n5, 137, 190, 197

D Daitoh, I. , 47 Daquila, T. C. , 59 de Melo, J. , 60 Dieter, H. , 51 discriminatory trade , 16, 19, 26, 53,

95, 186, 206 Donnenfeld, S. , 48 dummy variable , 11, 29, 128, 130,

131, 133, 134, 159, 166, 169, 170, 174, 179, 227

Dunning, J. H. , 46, 186

E economic community , ix, x, xvi, 2, 6,

8, 15, 21, 22, 26, 43, 46, 55, 70, 78, 83, 108, 146, 186, 189, 196, 200, 201, 224, 228

economic integration , vii–xi, xiv, xv, 2, 5–8, 15, 16, 18, 20–2, 26, 31, 33, 42, 44, 49–51,

Index 271

53, 55, 56, 59, 63–6, 68, 70–5, 78, 79, 83, 91, 92, 101, 102, 104, 105, 114, 135, 136, 138, 140, 146, 148, 151, 153, 155, 166, 172, 185, 186, 188, 189, 193, 195–9, 201, 205–8, 211, 212, 214, 216–18, 221n5, 221n8, 226, 228, 229, 231

Ethnic Chinese Business Network , x, 46, 191

Edward, J. R. , 30, 109n5 Egger, P. , 26, 47, 186 European Coal and Steel Community ,

74, 147, 148, 154 European Coal and Steel

Cooperation , 146 European Economic Community ,

75, 78, 83 European Single Market , 75 Exchange rates , 140, 169, 209

F fi nancial integration , vii, viii, x, 2,

6, 8, 16, 20–2, 23n1, 24n9, 44, 51, 55–7, 63, 64, 70, 71, 75, 78–81, 83, 84, 92, 110n14, 187, 197–9, 201, 201n2, 206, 208, 212, 215–17, 219, 220n3, 228, 229, 231, 232n3

fi rst-mover , 31, 117, 118 fi rst mover advantage , 35, 127,

225

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) , vii, 1, 3, 5, 7, 52, 54, 73, 84, 95, 144n22, 203

Foster, M. J. , 32, 109n5 Frankel, J. , 64, 90, 91, 110n16 free fl ows of capital , 42, 44, 69, 71,

73, 79, 148 free fl ows of people , 6, 44, 151, 215,

218, 231

G global fi nancial crisis , 76, 78 Globerman, S. , 26, 48 Goh Chok Tong , 120, 150 Greenway, D. , 61 Griffi ths, D. , 49 Guisinger, S. E. , 28, 29, 98

H Hayakawa, K. , 30, 60, 61, 89, 140 Hejazi, W. , 41 Helpman, E. , 40, 50, 52, 98, 101,

106, 134, 186, 217 Higgott, R. , 51 hollowing-out , xv, 29, 34 hub-spoke , 58, 127 Huhne, C. , 123, 204 Huy, L. H. , 59

I intergovernmentalism , 74, 80, 114, 122 International Tripartite Rubber

Organization (ITRO) , 145–84, 226

272 Index

intra-regional trade , vii, x, xi, xiv, xvii, xviii, 4–9, 15, 18, 21, 25–30, 34, 43, 45–51, 53, 55, 57, 63, 64, 72, 76, 83, 86, 90–107, 111n22, 125, 131–3, 138, 140, 146–7, 185, 186, 189, 190, 193, 216, 218, 219, 223–5, 228

investment creation , ix, xiv, 4–8, 16, 17, 21, 24n5, 26–8, 30, 33, 36, 42, 45, 46, 48, 49, 64, 73, 85, 90, 91, 95, 98–102, 104, 106–8, 115, 128, 131, 134, 136, 138, 140, 147, 159, 166, 186, 190, 196, 216, 219, 223–6, 228

Ito, K. , 31

J Jang, Y. J. , 116

K Kawamura, A. , 47 Kelly, P. F. , 30 Kemp, M. C. , 106 Kindleberger, C. P. , 49, 101, 103 Kobrin, S. J. , 38 Kojima, K. , ix, 46, 190 Kokko, A. , 26, 48 Krugman, P. , 40, 50, 52, 98, 134, 217

L Lamy, P. , 25, 108n1, 119, 127,

143n15, 143n16 Lawrence, R. , 65, 66, 142n7

Lee, H-H. , 30 Lin, P. , 34

M MacDermott, R. , 26, 48, 186 MacLean, B. , viii, x, 25, 53–5, 72,

94, 185 Manger, M. , 4, 117, 118 Markusen, J. R. , 51 Markusen, R. , 50 Maskus, E. , 50 Medalla, E. M. , 54, 60, 61 Menon, J. , 116, 117, 140, 185, 186 Most Favored Nation , 68 Motta, M. , 26, 33 Musyawarah and Mufakat , 122

N Nesadurai, H. E. S. , 4, 17, 22, 55–7,

93, 140 non-tariff barriers , 29, 33, 35, 57 Norman, G. , 26, 33 Normann, H. T. , 157

O Oechssler, J. , 157 open and soft regionalism , 113, 146,

221n6, 231 Optimum Currency Area , 64, 195,

199, 207, 231

P Pain, N. , 37 Panagariya, A. , 4, 26, 61, 105, 138

Index 273

Park, I. , 47 Park, S. , 47 Pauly, P. , 41 Pelkmans, J. , 60, 64 Peng, D. , x, 44–6, 191 Pfaff ermayr, M. , 26, 47, 186 Phelan, S. E. , 28, 98 Pitsuwan, S. , 137 Plummer, M. , 26, 42, 43 Plummer, M. G. , xvii, 103 Polak, J. J. , 66, 67 Poon, J. P. H. , 30 preferential tariff arrangement , 27 prisoner’s dilemma , 9, 12, 13,

59, 124, 126, 138, 156, 204 Pugel, T. A. , 29, 38, 39, 109n5

R Ravenhill, J. , 4, 25, 27, 55, 72,

94, 109n13, 125, 140, 185 regionalism , 24n7, 27, 110n18,

111n19, 220n1 Regional Production Networks , ix,

43–5, 189, 190 regional trade agreements , 4, 25, 48,

49, 121, 186 Regulatory Impact Assessment , 115 Ricci, L. A. , 196 Rob, R. , 36 Rose, E. L. , 31 Rules of Origin , 56

S Safarian, A. E. , 41 Saggi, K. , 34

Salvatore, D. , 5, 16, 23n3, 53, 87, 109n4, 143n18

Sapsford, D. , 49 Schott, J. , 18, 24n6, 65 Sethi, D. , 28 snowballing eff ect , 113, 118, 123,

127, 225 Southeast Asia , vii–x, xiv–xvi, xviii,

xix, 2, 4, 5, 20, 21, 24n5, 26, 27, 32, 33, 43–6, 55, 57, 58, 61, 62, 69, 77–9, 81–3, 89, 90, 93, 95, 98, 99, 102–4, 107, 109n11, 110n16, 122, 130, 131, 135, 136, 138, 139, 144n22, 145–8, 152, 153, 166, 167, 171, 179, 181, 186, 189–91, 196–9, 203, 206, 223, 226

spaghetti-bowl , 27, 138 spillover eff ect , 39–41 Sproul, A. , 67 Steff en, H. , 157 stumbling block , 9, 128,

138, 145 sub-regional integration , 146,

193 supranational , 51, 73, 74,

114, 122

T tariff discrimination , 17, 28 Th ompson, E. R. , 30 Th orbecke, E. , 146, 153

274 Index

trade creation , xviii, 4, 6–9, 15, 16, 19, 21, 24n7, 26–8, 33, 48, 50, 58, 64, 73, 90–2, 95, 100–6, 108, 109n8, 111n19, 121, 131, 136–8, 203, 205, 220n1, 223, 224, 230

Treaty of Amity and Cooperation , 53, 75

U Urata, S. , ix, 24n7, 46, 61, 89, 102,

103, 110n18, 127, 191, 205, 220n1

V Verico, K. , xv, xvi, xviii, xix, 90, 92,

110n16, 111n22, 131, 138,

144n22, 146, 179, 181, 187, 192, 199, 201, 201n1, 226, 228, 232n2

Vettas, N. , 36 Viner, J. , vii, 61, 63, 64, 186

W Walz, U. , 40 Wang, H. , ix, 46, 191 Wan, H. , 106

Y Yang Razali Kassim , 20, 82, 142n11,

206 Yoshimatsu, H. , 62, 103

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