Will Future Water Professionals Sink under Received Wisdom, or
Swim to a New Paradigm?Douglas J Merrey
World Water Day 2008: The Water Professional of Tomorrow, 12th NETHCID Symposium,
Wageningen University
Question of the Day for Water Professionals
Will we use our skills and opportunities simply to re-confirm and further consolidate, through tinkering, old paradigms of thinking and acting?
Or will we throw off the shackles on our minds, ask new questions, and thereby create new paradigms for a better world?
(And will we train our future students to overthrow our own sacred paradigms?)
Outline
1. Investing in “Water Security” as a necessary condition for rapid economic development
2. Assess three assumptions underlying the Water Security Argument
A. Its necessity: the “minimum platform”B. Large-scale water infrastructure is necessary to achieve water
security Alternatives ignored: the case of agricultural water
management in sub-Saharan AfricaC. Faith in “stakeholder consultation” to ensure equity and
environmental sustainability
3. A political economic perspective on water investments4. Conclusions: Priorities for the Water Professionals of
tomorrow—research and action
1. The Water Security Case “Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and
development,” David Grey and Claudia Sadoff, Water Policy 2007 Excellent article making the case for renewed investments on
water infrastructure, especially in Africa Draw on their argument, as it represents an increasingly
dominant view in development banks Though I am questioning some of their assumptions, I respect
their having moved the Bank from a low-risk no-action stance Freely using Dr Grey’s slides with thanks
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) focus—my current interest; greatest infrastructure gap; and likely big investments in future
African Infrastructure Gap
Until recently investments in infrastructure declining
Huge gap by all possible measuresHalf population no sanitationLower road density than India in 1950Schools, hospitals, communicationsOnly a few countries e.g., South Africa, can
invest enough to reduce gap quicklySome slides from Dr. Grey
Infrastructure gap: Access to electricity
184
85
21
126
55 38 29
204
114
581
900
430
2108
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000C
amer
oon
Nig
eria
Eth
iopi
a
Ke
nya
Ta
nzan
ia
Uga
nda
Bu
rkin
a F
aso
Gha
na
Se
neg
al
Alg
eria
Eg
ypt
Mor
occo
Wo
rld A
vera
ge
Ele
c c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
kW
h/y
r)/C
apit
a
500 kWh/capita/year minimum consumption for reasonable quality of life
Energy use per person in Africa
United States consumption – 12000kWh/capita/yr
Africa
EuropeN America
S AmericaAsia (incl.
China)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Hydropower Potential Tapped
The infrastructure gap: Hydropower
43746
1,287 1,406
2,4863,255
4,729
6,150
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Eth
iopi
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
Th
aila
nd
Lao
s
Ch
ina
Bra
zil
Au
stra
lia
No
rth
Am
eri
ca
Water storage per person (m3)
Country Additional Storage
needed per person
(m3)
Storage investments required per
person(US$)
Storage Investments
Required(US$ Billion)
Period needed at 5% current GDP investment per year (no pop.
inc.)(Years)
Lesotho 751 939 1.7 44
Namibia 542 678 1.3 8
Nigeria 402 503 67.3 32
Ethiopia 555 694 46.2 144
Kenya 307 384 12.1 24
Tanzania 610 763 27.4 60
Uganda 511 639 17.9 58
Burkina Faso
152 190 2.5 22
Senegal 683 854 9.9 40
Algeria 239 299 9.8 4
Morocco 128 160 5.1 4
‘Water security’: Investment gap
Devastating Impacts of Variable and Uncertain Rainfall
Worsened by Lack of Storage and Inadequate institutional and infrastructural Capacity to Manage
Impacts of Floods and Droughts
Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
Years
Rea
l G
DP
gro
wth
(%
)
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Var
iab
ilit
y in
Rai
nfa
ll (
Met
er)
Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
2000 & 2001 winters: extreme
flooding in Mozambique
Mozambique’s 2000 floods
-23%
+44%
“Water Security”
Definition: ‘Acceptable’ quantity and quality of water for life and ecosystems with ‘acceptable’ level of water-related risks
Necessary condition for economic growthWealthy countries ‘harnessed hydrology’—most in
easy conditionsPoor countries faced with “difficult hydrology”
“direct consequence” – Have not achieved water security Some “hampered by hydrology” Some even worse off—”hostage to hydrology”
Bleak prognosis unless huge investments made to achieve “minimum platform” of water security
Poverty and Hydrology—Grey and Sadoff
2. Three assumptions
A. Water security as necessary condition for economic growth
B. Achieving water security requires large-scale water infrastructure
C. High level of faith that “stakeholder consultation” will ensure equity and environmental sustainability
A. Water security as necessary condition for economic growth
Use “stories,” e.g., TVA in USA, Murray-Darling in Australia, hydroelectric in western Europe to make positive case Imply these were critical pre-requisites to national growth – but
no evidence given Admit but minimize social and environmental costs No questions asked on longer-term sustainability
Contested argument that increasingly resonates in other “over-developed” areas in Asia, Mexico, USA
Question not asked: Were there alternative investments to achieve development goals? Public presentations—say “there is no alternative”
Need critical in-depth studies and use these studies as basis for developing more useful scenario and
decision-support tools
B. Achieving water security requires large-scale water infrastructure
“Infrastructure” includes institutions necessary to build and manage it
Where hydrology “difficult” failure to invest in water security “deeper hole”
In this situation, initial returns to large water infrastructure will be low in conventional termsGrowing investments higher returns over time until
minimum platform, then balance of management-infrastructural investment returns shift
Achieving water security requires large-scale water infrastructure
Are there no alternatives? If so, why are they not considered? What is needed in terms of knowledge,
skills, public action to stimulate and contribute to such debates?
The Case of Agricultural Water Management (AWM) Investments in
SSA
The “Consensus” View
Low level of irrigation in SSA Massive irrigation investments key to Asian
“Green Revolution” Therefore, massive irrigation investments are
needed in SSA Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development
Program (CAADP), and Commission for Africa (“Blair Report”) Both argue for doubling irrigated area by 2015
Are the “solutions” of yesterday and Asia applicable to the future and to SSA?
The Figures on irrigated Area
Irrigated Land (% of Crop Land)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
South Asia Middle East &North Africa
East Asia &Pacif ic
Latin America &Caribbean
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Some counter-arguments Most staple food is not irrigated in SSA
Improving rainfed agriculture may have higher payoffs to reduce poverty (Comprehensive Assessment)
Insufficient surface water available Financial and human resources insufficient
High cost, though often SSA costs are exaggerated Long gestation period for formal irrigation Wide range of low-cost individualized AWM
technologies available and proven successfulPer Euro invested, more beneficiaries, food security,
income, achievable in short time, with better opportunity to target
Why is there strong resistance to supporting policies and programs for
micro-AWM & rain fed?• Growing evidence of
benefits• Benefits accrue quickly• Synergies with
infrastructure projects• Development banks,
governments pay lip service to rainfed and small technologies
WHY?
Treadle Pumps--Types
ZAMBIA
ZAMBIA
KENYA
S. AFRICA
SWAZI-
LAND
INDIA
C. Faith in “Stakeholder Consultation”
International consensus view this will lead to equitable and harmonious “IWRM”o Social and environmental costs can be reduced using
local knowledge and consultationIs this realistic?
Most citizens poor, not organized, lack informationUp against power vested interests supported by
government officialsEven South Africa, best example of a country
that is committed and trying—disappointing results
Will ‘stakeholder consultation’ be added to the long list of failed water reforms?
Radical reforms needed for effective empowerment of stakeholders—rare
Need large-scale comparative studies on approaches to identifying drivers for success
Need radical change in training of water professionalsEven M.Sc. courses in “IWRM” rarely provide real
training in building coalitions and working with stakeholders
3. Political Economy of Water Investments
Why do development banks, governments continued to emphasize need for large-scale infrastructure investments nearly exclusively with little attention to water options that may benefit more people more quickly at lower costs?
Why do they continue to pay lip service to ‘stakeholder consultation’ but avoid creating the political conditions necessary for it to work?
Political Economy of Water Investments
Political economy of water investment decisions is a knowledge gapWageningen University a leader in
researching politics of irrigation schemes and now river basin management
Rhetoric: banks support country-driven projects—reality quite different and complex
IIMI Dutch associate expert examined this in 2 Sri Lankan irrigation schemes funded by ADB 20 years ago
Political Economy of Water Investments
Sri Lanka case: ADB & its consultants drove projects Imposed design and operational standards Never accepted by Irrigation Dept. No ownership—”No one cared” Bank but not government reacted very negatively to Nijman’s
drafts Development banks-consultants-
governments-”beneficiaries” nexus: complex and not understood Fertile ground for research Development bank staff may do excellent technical studies but
work within their own institutional paradigms Universities better placed to do this than international
organizations
4. Conclusions: Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water
ProfessionalGrand opportunities to make a different in Africa African professionals—special responsibility & commitment Others can work as partners, learning and contributing together,
and influencing governments and policy shapers globally
Water is political: Powerful vested interests maximize benefits. In this context how can we knowledge producers
and processors play a more active and decisive role?
Conclude with a few questions to open a wider discussion at this Conference
Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water Professional
Is “water security” a pre-requisite for development?
Is large-scale infrastructure the only road to water securityWho are its real beneficiaries in developing
countriesWhat constellation of interests and driving
forces lead to favoring large-scale infrastructure over alternatives?
Applies to development banks, governments
Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water Professional
Are there alternative investment roads?How can the policy space be widened to consider
alternative options?How can coalitions be mobilized nationally and
internationally to support alternatives?
What strategies and reforms can empower poor stakeholders to participate effectively in investment decisions?How can governments and international agencies
foster this? Or are they indeed part of the problem?
Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water Professional
What indeed are the proper roles for knowledge producers and processors and how can our effectiveness be enhanced?
To inform research and actions socially as well as technically, a new kind of water professional will
be needed in future
Much to do, little time
Will the water professionals of tomorrow work within and therefore sink under old
paradigms?
Or will we swim to new paradigms and thereby a better world in future?
Our real clients
More clients
Thank you!
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