WIDEWATER & WINDING CREEK
ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS
REDISTRICTING COMMITTEE
RECOMMENDATION
• Introduction
• General Information
• Redistricting Committee
• Attendance Area Policy
• Goals
• Options
• Recommendation
AGENDA
• 2015 – 2024 Student Enrollment
Projections
• ORED (Consultant)
• 10 year Forecast
• Elementary School Enrollment Concerns
• WES – Short & Long Term
• WCES – Mid & Long Term
General Information
General Information
ES Enrollment Forecast
Design
Capacity 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Grades K-5
ANTHONY BURNS ES 950 760 762 789 814 813 814 827 824 817 818
CONWAY ES 950 910 912 966 999 1013 1011 1010 1010 1013 1017
FALMOUTH ES 794 535 536 565 583 576 582 592 594 600 602
FERRY FARM ES 732 628 628 647 636 630 629 625 623 625 622
GARRISONVILLE ES 768 517 516 531 538 539 552 556 556 562 564
GRAFTON VILLAGE ES 754 573 572 560 563 559 558 560 561 560 553
HAMPTON OAKS ES 950 801 803 820 805 784 781 775 772 762 758
HARTWOOD ES 649 584 586 604 614 614 618 624 627 644 664
KATE WALLER
BARRETT ES 950 776 778 814 829 829 817 815 819 818 811
MARGARET BRENT ES 950 887 886 897 905 898 900 898 898 904 906
MONCURE ES 754 689 690 716 717 723 721 722 721 723 718
PARK RIDGE ES 843 598 599 594 552 547 551 542 543 534 533
ROCKHILL ES 843 613 611 612 587 582 582 571 565 544 542
ROCKY RUN ES 950 820 821 849 845 847 844 842 842 843 838
STAFFORD ES 794 704 704 727 731 737 735 738 740 739 731
WIDEWATER ES 843 880 883 908 896 897 902 907 910 930 962
WINDING CREEK ES 925 738 746 842 923 960 1014 1055 1078 1171 1306
Totals 14399 12014 12033 12439 12537 12549 12611 12657 12684 12788 12946
• Rebuild Moncure ES
• Design Start 2015
• Construction Start 2017
• Open Sep 2018
• 950 Student Design Capacity
• 196 Student Capacity Increase
General Information
Redistricting Committee
• WES & WCES Redistricting Committee
• Relief to WES & WCES Starting 2015 – 2016
School Year
• Goal – WES/MES/HOES/KWBES
• 90 – 95% Utilization Rate 2017-18 School Year
• WES – Decrease 90 – 135 Students
• MES – Increase < 35 Students
• HOES- Increase 50 – 95 Students
• KWBES – Increase 25 – 70 Students
Redistricting Committee
• WES & WCES Redistricting Committee
• Goal – WCES/PRES
• WCES – Decrease 45 - 90 Students
• PRES – Increase < 90 Students
• Stakeholders
WES MES PRES
HOES KWBES WCES
Redistricting Committee
• WES & WCES Redistricting Committee
Membership
• Associate Superintendent (Voting)
• Chief Elementary Officer (Voting)
• Principals from each School (Voting – One per
School)
• Parent Representative(s) from each School (Up to
Two Reps)
• Demographic Planner (Facilitator)
• Asst. Superintendent for Operations (Facilitator)
• Pupil Transportation (Non-voting)
• Student Services (Non-voting)
• One Vote per School
Redistricting Committee
• WES & WCES Redistricting Committee
Pam Kahle Associate Superintendent
Carrie Neeley Chief Elementary Education
Scott Horan Assistant Superintendent Facilities
Pat Druash Demographics Planner
Susan Clark Student Services
Barry Sudduth Transportation
Jacqui Mejeur Administrative Assistant
Valerie Cottongim Public Information Officer
Greg Machi Moncure Principal
Anna Killion Moncure Parent
Emily Fallen Moncure Parent
Kristen Nash Widewater Principal
Chad Armstrong Widewater Asst Principal
Steven Wert Widewater Parent
Lisa Billingsly Widewater Parent
Kim Austin Kate Waller Barrett Principal
Allen Hicks HOES Asst Principal
Barbara Warren Hampton Oaks Parent
Rebecca Wardlow Winding Creek Principal
Flavia Hall WCES Asst Principal
Mary Ellen Samuelsen Winding Creek Parent
Meg Crane Winding Creek Parent
Keana Butler Park Ridge Principal
Nicole Gramenopoulos Park Ridge - PTO
Redistricting Committee
• WES & WCES Redistricting Committee
• Time Line
• SB Approved Strategy Oct 28, 2014
• 1st Redistricting Meeting Nov 18, 2014
• 2nd Redistricting Meeting Dec 2, 2014
• 3rd Redistricting Meeting Dec 16, 2014
• SB Work Session Jan 12, 2015
• Public Hearing Jan 14, 2015
• SB Agenda Item (Info) Jan 27, 2015
• SB Agenda Item (Action) Feb 10, 2015
Attendance Zone Policy
• Proximity of schools to student
residences,
• Walking distances,
• Walking and busing safety,
• Impact on neighborhoods,
• Contiguous school attendance
areas,
• Student Accommodation
Reports,
• Distribution of programs and
resources,
• Comparative long-term costs,
• Frequency of previous changes
for affected neighborhoods
• Forecasted school
enrollment and capacity,
• Busing times and costs,
• Natural and man-made
geographic features,
• School feeder patterns,
• Capital Improvement
Plan,
• Socioeconomic
characteristics of school
populations,
• Overall impact on families
and students,
• Parental Input
• Policy 1403
OPTIONS
OPTION 1 Hills of Aquia and Port Aquia to MES, APU 169 to KWBES,
APU 167 to HOES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R
Estimate
Nutrition Nov F&R
%
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Result
Design Capacity % in 2017-18
Design Capacity
KWBES* (+39) 817 56.35 56.6 447 878 92.42 950
HOES (+45) 848 57.97 58.2 463 850 89.47 950
MES* (+28) 721 22.52 22.7 154 753 99.87 754
WES* (-112) 768 46.49 41.7 375 766 90.87 843
3154 3247
*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (2014-15 +3, 2017-18 +18)
*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run from MES to KWBES (2017-18 - +10 students)
PROS CONS
KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18
WES meets goal for 2017-18 MES does not meet goal for 2017-18
OPTION 1a Hills of Aquia and Port Aquia to MES, APU 169 to KWBES,
APU 167 to HOES 12/16/2014
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R %
Estimate Nutrition
Nov F&R %
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Result
Design Capacity % in
2017-18
Design Capacity
KWBES (+39) 817 56.35 56.6 447 878 92.42 950 HOES (+45) 848 57.97 58.2 463 850 89.47 950 MES (+25) 721 22.52 22.7 154 753 99.87 754 WES (-109) 768 46.49 41.7 375 766 90.87 843
3154 3247 *Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (2014-15 +3, 2017-18 +18)
*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run from MES to KWBES (2017-18 - +10 students)
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment
2017-18 Forecast Result
2015-16 Add Two Modulars
Main Building in 2015-16
Design Capacity % in
2015-16
Design Capacity
MES (+25) 721 753 50 671 88.99 754
Main Building in 2017-18
Design Capacity % in
2017-18
Design Capacity
703 93.24 754 PROS CONS
KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18 WES meets goal for 2017-18 MES meets goal for 2017-18
OPTION 2
Port Aquia & Potomac Hills to MES, APU 167 to HOES, & 169 to KWBES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment
F&R Estimat
e
Nutrition Nov F&R %
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Results
Design Capacity % in 2017-18
Design Capacity
KWBES (+39) 817 56.35 56.6 447 878 92.42 950
HOES (+45) 848 57.97 58.2 463 850 89.47 950
MES (+55) 745 25.5 22.7 154 762 101.06 754
WES (-139) 744 45.82 41.7 375 757 89.80 843
3154 3247 *Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run from MES to KWBES (2017-18 - +10 students)
PROS CONS
KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18
MES does not meet goal for 2017-18
WES does not meet goal for 2017-18
OPTION 2a Port Aquia & Potomac Hills to MES, APU 167 to HOES, & 169 to
KWBES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R
Estimate
Nutrition Nov F&R
%
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Results
Design Capacity % in 2017-18
Design Capacity
KWBES* (+39) 817 56.35 56.6 447 878 92.42 950 HOES (+45) 848 57.97 58.2 463 850 89.47 950 MES* (+55) 745 25.5 22.7 154 762 101.06 754 WES (-139) 744 45.82 41.7 375 757 89.80 843
3154 3247 *Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run 2017-18 - 10 Students
Option - Add two Modular Units to MES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment
2017-18 Forecast Result
2015-16 Add Two Modulars
Main Building in 2015-16
Design Capacity % in 2015-16
Design Capacity
MES (+25) 745 762 50 695 92.18 754
Main Building in 2017-18
Design Capacity % in 2017-18
Design Capacity
712 94.43 754 PROS CONS
KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18 MES meets goal for 2017-18 WES does not meet goal for 2017-18
OPTION 3
Aquia Harbor to HOES, Hills of Aquia & Port Aquia to MES; Woodstream,Staffordborough, Foxwood Village, & Sunningdale to MES, APU 167 to
HOES, and APU 169 to KWBES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R
Estimate
Nutrition Nov F&R
%
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Result
Design Capacity
% in 2017-18
Design Capacity
HOES (+75)*** 899 30.55 56.6 447 943 99.26 950
KWBES (+39)** 817 56.35 58.2 463 878 92.42 950
MES (-5)*,**,*** 667 55.12 22.7 154 657 87.14 754
WES (-109)* 771 48.28 41.7 375 769 91.22 843
3154 3247
*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hills of Aquia - WES to MES - 3 students in 2014-15, 18 in 2017-18
** Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run - 10 students in 2017-18 - MES to KWBES
*** Adjustment for anticipated growth in Aquia Town Center - 21 in 2015/16 , 63 students by 2017/18.
MES to HOES
PROS CONS
KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18
WES meets goal for 2017-18 MES does not meet goal for 2017-18
OPTION 4
Modulars until Moncure Rebuild - Opens in 2018-19
2015-16 Forecast
2015-16 Add 2
Modulars Main Building
Design Capacity
Design %
Widewater 883 50 833 843 98.81
2016-17 Forecast
2016-17 Add 2
Modulars
Main Building Design
Capacity Design %
Widewater 908 100 808 843 95.85
2017-18 Forecast
No Additions
Main Building Design
Capacity Design %
Widewater 896 100 796 843 94.42
PROS CONS
Defers Redistricting Until New MES Stress on CORE Facilities @ WES
Additional Cost for Lease and Operation
OPTION 5
Hills of Aquia, Port Aquia & APU 167 to HOES, APU 169 to KWBES, Foxwood Village to MES, Villages of Aquia to SES
End Result 2015-16 Enrollme
nt
F&R Estimate
Nutrition Nov F&R
%
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Result
Design Capacity % in 2017-18
Design Capacity
HOES (-129) 674 36.54 56.6 447 668 70.32 950
KWBES** (+39) 817 56.35 58.2 463 888 93.47 950
MES*, ** (+125) 818 44.00 22.7 154 858 113.79 754
WES* (-109) 771 45.00 41.7 375 759 90.04 843
SES (+74) 778 26.25 23.40 161 805 101.39 794
3858 3978
*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (2014-15 +3, 2017-18 +18)
*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run from MES to KWBES (2017-18 - +10 students)
PROS CONS
KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18
WES meets goal for 2017-18 MES does not meet goal for 2017-18
SES does not meet goal for 2017-18
OPTION 6 Hills of Aquia, Port Aquia, Villages of Aquia & APU 167 to HOES, APU 169 to KWBES, Sunningdale, Staffordborough, and Woodstream MES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R
Nutrition Nov F&R %
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Result
Design Capacity % in
2017-18
Design Capacity
HOES (+39) 842 33.65 56.6 447 844 88.84 950
KWBES* (+39) 817 56.35 58.2 463 878 92.42 950
MES* (+23) 713 26.00 22.7 154 730 96.82 754
WES (-101) 782 45.00 41.7 375 795 94.31 843
3154 3247
*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run2017-18 - 10 students from MES to HOES
PROS CONS
KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18
WES meets goal for 2017-18 MES does not meet goal for 2017-18
OPTION 7
Hills of Aquia and Port Aquia to MES, APU 169 to KWBES, APU 167 to HOES, Cabin Creekwood & Colonial Terrace from KWBES to PRES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R
Nutrition Nov F&R %
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Result
Design Capacity % in
2017-18
Design Capacity
KWBES** (-2) 776 57.00 56.6 447 837 88.11 950 HOES (+45) 848 57.97 58.2 463 850 89.47 950 MES*,** (+28) 718 22.52 22.7 154 753 99.87 754 PRES (+41) 640 24.43 21.7 129 593 70.34 843 WES* (-112) 771 46.49 41.7 375 766 90.87 843
3753 3799
Note: If APU 156 moves from WCES to PRES, result for PRES would be:
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R
Estimate Nutrition
Nov F&R %
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Result
Design Capacity % in
2017-18
Design Capacity
PRES (+119) 718 22.00 21.7 129 671 79.60 843 *Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (2014-15 +3, 2017-18 +18)
*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run from MES to KWBES (2017-18 - +10 students)
PROS CONS
WES meets goal for 2017-18 KWBES, HOES, MES and PRES do not meet goal for 2017-18
OPTION 8
PART 1 Hills of Aquia and Port Aquia to HOES, APU 169 to KWBES, Sunningdale
and Staffordborough to MES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R
Estimated
Nutrition Nov F&R
%
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Result
Design Capacity % in
2017-18
Design Capacity
HOES (+50) 853 52.96 56.6 447 855 90.00 950 KWBES* (+39) 817 56.35 58.2 463 878
92.42 950
MES* (+20) 710 28.97 22.7 154 727 96.42 754
WES (-109) 774 47.79 41.7 375 787 93.36 843
3154 3247 *2017-18 forecast adjusted by 10 students due to anticipated growth from Hampton Run Subdivision
PART 2
Foxwood Village, Villages of Aquia, and APU 167 to HOES from MES, Potomac Hills from WES to HOES
End Result 2018-19
Enrollment Estimated F&R
Design Capacity % in
2018-19 Design Capacity
HOES (-41) 743 38.22 78.21 950
KWBES (+39) 868 56.35 91.37 950
MES (+184) 907 44.10 95.47 950
WES (-182) 715 47.79 84.82 843
3233 *2018- 19 forecast adjusted by 15 students due to anticipated growth from Hampton Run Subdivision
PROS CONS
KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18
WES meets goal for 2017-18 MES does not meet goal for 2017-18
MES meets goal for 2018-19
OPTION 9 - APU 156 from WCES to PRES & Shelton Woods from WCES to GES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R
Nutrition Nov F&R
%
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-2018 Forecast Result
Design Capacity
% in 2017-18
Design Capacity
PRES (+78) 677 28.37 21.7 129 630 74.73 843
WCES* (-78) 660 18.61 17.0 126 793 85.73 925
GES* (+52) 524 26.20 25.5 143 590 76.82 768
1861 2013
*2015-16 Enrollment increases by a projected 8 students for GES in 2015-16 and decreases by 8 for WCES.
Shelton Woods has not built houses - total build out with an additional 44 students is reflected in 2017-18.
PROS CONS
WCES reduced to allow for growth PRES does not meet goal for 2017-18
WCES does not meet goal for 2017-18
GES does not meet goal for 2017-18
OPTION 10 - Aquia Harbor to HOES, Hills of Aquia & Port Aquia to MES; Woodstream,Staffordborough, Foxwood Village, & Sunningdale to MES, and APU
169 to KWBES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R
Estimate
Nutrition Nov F&R
%
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Result
Design Capacity % in
2019-20
Design Capacity
HOES (+33) 836 31.98 56.6 447 838 88.21 950
KWBES (+39) 817 56.35 58.2 463 878 92.42 950
MES (+37) 730 54.60 22.7 154 744 98.67 754
WES (-109) 771 48.91 41.7 375 787 93.35 843
3154 3247
*Adjustment for anticipated home growth - Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (2014-15 +3, 2017-18 +18)
*Adjustment for anticipated home growth in Hampton Run from MES to KWBES (2017-18 - +10 students)
PROS CONS
KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18
WES meets goal for 2017-18 MES does not meet goal for 2017-18
OPTION 12
Aquia Harbor to HOES, Hills of Aquia & Port Aquia to MES; Woodstream,Staffordborough, Foxwood Village, & Sunningdale to MES, and APU 169
to KWBES
End Result 2015-16
Enrollment F&R
Estimate
Nutrition Nov F&R
%
Nutrition Nov F&R Students
2017-18 Forecast Result
Design Capacity % in 2019-20
Design Capacity
HOES (+30) 854 30.55 56.6 447 898 94.53 950
KWBES (+39) 817 56.35 58.2 463 878 92.42 950
MES (+40) 712 55.12 22.7 154 702 93.10 754
WES (-109) 771 48.28 41.7 375 769 91.22 843
3154 3247 Note: Adjustments for anticipated growth in Aquia Town Center (21 in 2015/16 , 63 students by 2017/18) from MES to HOES; new home growth in Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (3 - 2014/15, 18 - 2017/18), and new home growth in Hampton Run (10 - 2017/18 from MES to KWBES)
PROS CONS
All schools meet goals for 2017-18 Large numbers of students moved - too drastic change per MES
Hills of Aquia and Port Aquia to from WES to HOES; APU 169
from MES to KWBES, Sunningdale and Staffordborough to from
HOES to MES, Cabin Creekwood & Colonial Terrace from KWBES
to PRES; APU 156 from WCES to PRES; Shelton Woods from
WCES to GES
OPTION 13
PART 1
End Result
2015-16
Enrollm
ent
F&R
Nutritio
n Nov
F&R %
Nutritio
n Nov
F&R
Student
s
2017-18
Forecast
Result
Design
Capacity
% in
2017-18
Design
Capacity
HOES (+50) 853 52.96 58.2 447 855 90.00 950
KWBES (+8) 776 56.35 56.6 463 837 88.11 950
MES (+20) 710 28.97 22.7 154 727 96.42 754
WES (-109) 774 47.79 41.7 375 787 93.36 843
PRES (+119) 718 22.97 21.7 129 671 79.60 843
GES (+52) 524 25.50 25.5 143 590 76.82 768
WCES (-130) 660 17.51 17.0 126 793 85.73 925
5015 5260*2015-16 increase of 8 students from WCES to GES in 2015-16, 52 students in 2017-18 for Shelton Woods
*2017-18 increase of 10 students from MES to KWBES for Hampton Run Subdivison
Villages of Aquia from MES to HOES; Foxwood Village from HOES to
MES; Potomac Hills from WES to HOES; and APU 167 from MES to
HOES
PART 2
PROS
HOES meets goal for 2017-18
WES meets goal for 2018-19
End Result
2018-19
Enrollment
F&R
Estimate
Design
Capacity %
in 2018-19
Design
Capacity
HOES (-41) 743 38.22 78.21 950
KWBES (+8) 837 56.35 88.11 950
MES (+174) 897 44.10 94.42 950
WES (-182) 715 47.49 84.82 843
PRES(+119) 666 22.97 79.60 843
GES(+52) 611 25.50 76.82 768
WCES(-130) 830 17.51 85.73 925
5299
HOES does not meet goal in 2018-19
WES does not meet goal in 2018-19
CONS
MES does not meet goal for 2018-19 & 19-20
KWBES does not meet goal for 2015-16, 17-18
Recommendation
• Option #13 – Combines Option #8 and #9
• Redistricted Rising 8th Graders Be Allowed to
Stay at Current School But Must Provide
Own Transportation
• Will Not Apply to Siblings
• No Transfers Will be Approved from
Redistricted Neighborhoods
Top Related