Energy boom and groundwater bust: Energy boom and groundwater bust: Mexico’s water-energy nexus with Mexico’s water-energy nexus with implications for the U.S. border regionimplications for the U.S. border region
Presented at First Western Forum on Energy and Water Sustainability, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, 22 March 2007
Energy Boom and Energy Boom and Groundwater BustGroundwater BustMexico’s Water-Energy Mexico’s Water-Energy Nexus with Implications Nexus with Implications
for the U.S. Border Regionfor the U.S. Border Region
Christopher ScottChristopher Scott University of ArizonaUniversity of Arizona
Dept. of Geography & Regional Development, Dept. of Geography & Regional Development, andand
Udall Center for Studies in Public PolicyUdall Center for Studies in Public Policy
What Nexus?What Nexus?
Resources – water and energy are coupled in fundamental ways
Management – of water or energy in isolation likely has (unforeseen) consequences for the other resource
Sustainability – policy tools for water, energy need to be mutually reinforcing
Water-Energy CouplingWater-Energy Coupling
Groundwater Inter-basin
transfers Municipal supply Wastewater, reuse
reservoir storageevaporative
demand
energy for pumpinglift, distributiontreatment,
distributiontreatment,
desalination
Hydropower Thermo-power
cooling
Resource FeedbacksResource Feedbacks
Water use
Energy
demand
Energy use
Water dema
nd
De-coupled De-coupled Management…Management… Water management options tend to externalize energy implications, e.g.: ~70 billion kWh/yr for U.S. water and
wastewater projected to increase 20% in 15 years greater if “desalination roadmap” is followed
water represents 1/3 of municipal energy budgets
groundwater irrigation is a large % of total electricity demand, e.g., in Mexico 10% in Sonora state 17% in Chihuahua state 30% in Zacatecas state
… … Needs to be [Re-] Needs to be [Re-] CoupledCoupled Energy management needs
to internalize water implications: increased hydropower reliance
entails sectoral water reallocation cooling water salt concentrations a
major challenge (e.g., Phoenix’s Palo Verde uses high TDS effluent)
Sustainability and PolicySustainability and Policy
Behind groundwater boom-bust cycles (e.g., Mexico) are energy supply and pricing. Conversely:
Energy supply and pricing offer tools for sustainable groundwater management
Global Groundwater Global Groundwater BoomBoom
Groundwater Irrigation Ranking
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
IndiaUSAChinaPakistan
Iran
BangladeshMexico
Saudi Arabia
ItalyTurkey
SyriaBrazil
('000 ha)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
%
GW Area (000 ha)
% Cropped Area
Source: Shah (in review); FAO AQUASTAT (2002).
26,000
… … Leading to Leading to Groundwater BustGroundwater Bust
Number of Wells in MexicoNumber of Wells in Mexico GW GW Irrigation in IndiaIrrigation in India
India, Irrigated Area by Source
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Million ha
Groundw ater
Surface (Minor)
Surface (Major/Medium)
Mexico, Number of Agricultural Wells
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
1000 wells
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
A
SC
EN
CIO
N
BA
JA B
AB
ICO
RA
CA
SA
S G
RA
ND
ES
F
.M.-
V. A
HU
MA
DA
C
HIH
-SA
CR
AM
EN
TO
ME
OQ
UI-
DE
LIC
IAS
J
IME
NE
Z-C
AM
AR
GO
JU
AR
EZ
(Z. U
rban
a)
P
AR
RA
L-V
. DE
L V
.
TA
B.-
AL
DM
A
C
UA
UH
TE
MO
C
ACUIFEROS SOBREEXPLOTADOS
ABATIMIENTO MEDIO EN m/año
1 VALLE DE JUAREZ2 ASCENCION3 CASAS GRANDES4 F.M.-V. AHUMADA5 BAJA BABICORA6 CUAUHTEMOC7 CHIHUAHUA-SACRAMENTO8 TABALAOPA-ALDAMA9 DELICIAS10 JIMENEZ-CAMARGO11 PARRAL-EL VERANO
DISTRIBUCIÓN DE LOS ACUIFEROS
SOBREEXPLOTADOS25° N
26° N
27° N
28° N
29° N
30° N
31° N
32° N
500
E s c a l a g r á f i c a
100 kms.
CUENCAS CERRADASDEL NORTE
VERTIENTESDEL OESTE
ALTO BRAVO
CONCHOS - MAPIMI
Proyección Longitud - Latitud
E X P L I C A C I O N
LIMITE ESTATAL
LIMITE INTERNACIONAL
NOMBRE DE LA REGION
REGIONES DE PLANEACION HIDROLOGICA
<<<<<<<<< <<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<
EN EQUILIBRIO
SOBREEXPLOTADO
E X P L I C A C I O N
<<<<<<<<<SOBREEXPLOTACION LOCALMANIFIESTA EN CONOS DE EXPLOTACION
LOCALIDADES MAS POBLADAS
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Est
e p
lan
o e
s es
qu
emát
ico
ACUIFEROS Y ZONAS DE VEDA
Programa Hidráulico de Gran VisiónC H I H U A H U A 1996 - 2020.
API DHTA PROINFRAFecha:nov 96'.
COMISION NACIONAL DEL AGUA
Figura 8-2
E X P L I C A C I O N
SOBREEXPLOTADO
EN EQUILIBRIO
SUBEXPLOTADO
SOBREEXPLOTACION LOCAL MANIFIESTA EN CONOS DE EXPLOTACION
No. Y NOMBRE DEL ACUIFERO
CABECERA MUNICIPALJimenez
1. Ascención
Nuevo Casas Grandes
Madera
Meoqui
Delicias
Hidalgo del Parral
Saucillo
1. Ascención
6. Casas Grandes
3. Baja Babícora
35. TabaloapaAldama
33. Valle de Juárez
21. Villa AhumadaFlores Magón
Chihuahua
30. ChihuahuaSacramento
Camargo
32. JimenezCamargo
34. ParralValle de Verano
Jimenez
Cuauhtémoc
Ojinaga
Juárez
5. Cuauhtémoc
10. Samalayuca
31. MeoquiDelicias
12. Palomas
4. San Buenaventura
7. SauzEncinillas
9. Laguna deMexicanos
8
28
29 11 23
17
25
1827
26
13
1419
2058
59
24
2 3742
39
55
52
47
22
60
46
38
40
1615 41
36
49 51
4445
43
50
53
54
5748
56
ZONA CON DECRETO DE VEDA
Groundwater-Energy Groundwater-Energy Supply NexusSupply Nexus
Groundwater overdraft and multiple impacts are driven by electricity supply and pricing
Increasing Volume, Increasing Volume, Declining ShareDeclining Share
High Energy % for GW High Energy % for GW PumpingPumping
Ag. Groundwater Ag. Groundwater Pumped, 2005Pumped, 2005(derived from energy data; national total ≈ 17.6 (derived from energy data; national total ≈ 17.6 kmkm33/year)/year)
Country Annual groundwater
use (km3)
No. of GW structures (million)
Extraction/ structure (m3/year)
% of population dependent on groundwater
India 150 19 7,900 55-60
Pakistan-Punjab 45 0.5 90,000 60-65
China 75 3.5 21,500 22-25
Iran 45 0.5 58,000 12-18
Mexico 29 0.1 400,000 5-6
USA 100 0.2 500,000 <1-2
Aquifer OverdraftAquifer Overdraft
GW Sustainability GW Sustainability InitiativesInitiatives
1992 - water rights, titling wells Registro Público de Derechos de Agua (REPDA) annual concessioned volume water meters, but monitoring or compliance
inadequate Water resource (river basin) master
plans bans on new wells in overdrafted aquifers recharge programs (controversial, runoff
impacts) groundwater user committees
Ag. GW Share of Total Ag. GW Share of Total Water TitledWater Titled
GW Titled ≠ GW PumpedGW Titled ≠ GW Pumped
2002 – Mexico seized the 2002 – Mexico seized the GW-energy nexus GW-energy nexus opportunityopportunity Rural Energy Law (Ley de Energía
para el Campo) primarily to level the playing field for Mexican agriculture under NAFTA
Power tariff structure modified with medium-term subsidy support
Sliding-scale ag. power tariff with threshold fixed by energy equivalent of groundwater volume titled
2003 – lost the thread? … 2003 – lost the thread? … with lower night-time ag. with lower night-time ag. tariff, but ineffective controls tariff, but ineffective controls on volume or area irrigatedon volume or area irrigatedTarifas
($/ kWh)2003 2004 2005
1. Doméstica 0.7496 0.793 0.8356Dom. alto consumo 1.728 2.0443 2.1236
5A. Servicios públicos 1.3353 1.4186 1.4915
6. Agua Negras y Potables 0.9727 1.041 1.0982
9. Agrícola baja tension 0.3805 0.4211 0.5357
9M. Agrícola media tension 0.3933 0.4816 0.60519CU. Agrícola costo unitario 0.3156 0.3928 0.435
9N. Agrícola nocturna 0.281 0.3409 0.3657
32% difference
Example: Chihuahua tariffs
US$ 1.00 = Mex$ 10.80
Sonora Ag. Power Consumption
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
198819901992199419961998200020022004
MWh
Night
Reg./ day
Chihuahua Ag. Power Consumption
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
198819901992199419961998200020022004
MWh
Night
Reg./ day
Coahuila Ag. Power Consumption
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
198819901992199419961998200020022004
MWh
Night
Reg./ day
Guanajuato Ag. Power Consumption
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
198819901992199419961998200020022004
MWh
Night
Reg./ day
Growth, night Growth, night ag. power ag. power consumptionconsumption
Shift to Night-time Shift to Night-time Irrigation Irrigation
Financially, A Losing Financially, A Losing Proposition?Proposition?
… … But Overall Profits HighBut Overall Profits High
GW-Based Intensive Ag. GW-Based Intensive Ag. ProductionProduction Exports to U.S., Canada, Pacific
rim Expanding Mexican domestic
market Costa de Hermosillo (Sonora) grapes Cuauhtemoc (Chihuahua) apples
Low water productivity in basic grains (wheat, corn) competing with high productivity horticulture
High Per-User Volumes High Per-User Volumes (Titled)(Titled)
Mexico’s Virtual Water Mexico’s Virtual Water Exports to the U.S. are Exports to the U.S. are GroundwaterGroundwater
Mexico’s Virtual Water Mexico’s Virtual Water Imports are Rainwater (w Imports are Rainwater (w supplemental irrigation)supplemental irrigation) Corn… despite the ethanol-
tortilla debacle Wheat Grain-fed beef Other animal products Deciduous fruit
Virtual WaterVirtual Water
Failure of the Virtual Water Argument: possible explanations using the case study of Mexico and NAFTA – manuscript by Jorge Ramirez-Vallejo and Peter Rogers
ConclusionsConclusions
Boom (partial collapse) of groundwater in northern Mexico fueled by electricity supply and pricing
CNA (water) and CFE (electricity) at institutional loggerheads
Energy supply management a promising tool for water demand management
Future ChallengesFuture Challenges
Should Mexico seek to manage virtual exports of groundwater? How?
Urban growth in (northern) Mexico will increasingly appropriate groundwater
Water-energy nexus for desalination?
Thank you.Thank you.Christopher Scott
(520) 626-4393Acknowledgements
Comisión Nacional del Agua Comisión Federal de Electricidad Tushaar Shah, International Water Management Institute Ana María Caliz, Tendencias – Consultores en Economía Jorge Ramirez-Vallejo and Peter Rogers, Harvard University
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