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January 21, 2012
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 1
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Bulls ride on hope of a favorable credit policy
Sensex (16739) / Nifty (5049)
Last week, indices had closed near the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the fall from 17004 to 15135 / 51007004 to 15135 / 51007004 to 15135 / 51007004 to 15135 / 51007004 to 15135 / 5100 to
45314531453145314531 i.e. 16290 / 488116290 / 488116290 / 488116290 / 488116290 / 4881 mark. This week, indices opened on a
quiet note and maintained their upward trend throughout the
week. As stated in our previous report, the impact of positive
crossover in weekly momentum oscillators was seen after
crossing 16421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 4920 level. Markets witnessed a
strong intra - week rally and moved towards the expected level
of 17004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 5100 and have closed marginally below it. On the
sectoral front, the Realty, Oil & Gas and Banking sectors
contributed heavily to the weeks up move, whereas FMCG
counters remained under marginal pressure. The Sensex ended
with a gain of 3.62%, while the Nifty gained 3.75% vis-à-vis
the previous week.
Pattern Formation
The 20-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is placed
at 16504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 4957 level. We are witnessing a positive crossover on weekly "RSI -
Smoothened" oscillator.
Indices are nearing a "Downward Sloping Trend Line" drawn
by joining July 8, 2011, weekly high of 19132 / 574019132 / 574019132 / 574019132 / 574019132 / 5740 and
October 28, 2011, weekly high of 17908 / 540017908 / 540017908 / 540017908 / 540017908 / 5400.
The 200-day SMA is placed at 17384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 5220 level.
The daily chart indicates formation of "Gravestone Doji"
Japanese candlestick pattern.
Future Outlook
This week indices have rallied significantly after crossing
16421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 4920 level and have managed to close almost at the
highest point of the week. Markets are now nearing strong
resistance level of 17004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 5100. Also, as mentioned above,
the "Gravestone Doji" candlestick pattern indicates the possibility
of a profit booking or a consolidation. We advise traders to
book profits in individual counters and stay light on positions.
Going forward, if indices sustain below 16572 / 499116572 / 499116572 / 499116572 / 499116572 / 4991 level,
then indices are likely to correct towards 16384 - 16116 /16384 - 16116 /16384 - 16116 /16384 - 16116 /16384 - 16116 /
4931 - 48404931 - 48404931 - 48404931 - 48404931 - 4840 levels. Conversely, indices have closed convincingly
above the 20-week EMA placed at 16504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 4957 level. Also,
we are observing a positive crossover on weekly "RSI -
Smoothened" oscillator. Therefore, after a healthy correction orconsolidation, if indices manage to break and sustain above
17004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 5100, then we may witness a strong upside
momentum, which can push indices to test 200-day SMA level
of 17384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 5220 level. In the coming week, traders are advised
to stay cautious as volatility is likely to increase on account of
the RBI's monetary policy and derivative expiry.
Source: Falcon
Exhibit 1: Sensex weekly chart
Source: Falcon
Exhibit 2: Sensex daily chart
Gravestone Doji
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January 21, 2012
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Technical Research Team
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
BANKNIFTY
ACC
AMBUJACEM
AXISBANK
BAJAJ-AUTO
BHARTIARTL
BHEL
BPCL
CAIRN
CIPLA
DLFDRREDDY
GAIL
HCLTECH
HDFC
HDFCBANK
HEROHONDA
HINDALCO
HINDUNILVR
ICICIBANK
IDFC
INFOSYSTCH
ITC
JINDALSTELJPASSOCIAT
KOTAKBANK
LT
M&M
MARUTI
NTPC
ONGC
PNB
POWERGRID
RANBAXY
RCOM
RELCAPITAL
RELIANCE
RELINFRA
RPOWER
SAIL
SBIN
SESAGOA
SIEMENS
STER
SUNPHARMA
SUZLON
TATAMOTORS
TATAPOWER
TATASTEEL
TCS
WIPRO
SCRIPS17,273 17,006 16,522 16,255 15,771
5,217 5,133 4,980 4,896 4,743
10,043 9,780 9,297 9,034 8,551
1,218 1,184 1,145 1,111 1,071
170 164 157 151 143
1,085 1,047 982 944 879
1,682 1,622 1,515 1,454 1,347
360 351 343 334 326
296 285 274 263 252
608 584 541 517 474
363 355 344 335 324
351 344 337 330 322
233 224 207 198 1821,739 1,692 1,657 1,610 1,575
385 379 369 363 354
453 435 415 398 378
710 701 686 677 662
516 503 481 468 446
2,130 2,038 1,904 1,813 1,678
157 151 140 134 123
406 399 392 384 377
908 875 819 786 729
142 131 119 108 96
2,709 2,649 2,613 2,552 2,516
216 208 204 197 193
570 552 522 505 47575 71 65 61 54
525 510 483 468 441
1,385 1,330 1,238 1,183 1,091
735 696 671 632 607
1,248 1,176 1,073 1,001 898
185 180 171 165 156
292 284 270 261 247
1,013 981 923 891 833
105 103 101 99 97
489 479 464 453 438
98 94 90 86 81
360 342 316 298 273
857 825 768 736 679
555 518 459 421 362
99 95 91 87 82
98 95 92 89 86
2,071 2,002 1,875 1,806 1,679
204 197 189 181 173
790 772 744 726 698
127 121 111 105 95
557 543 521 507 486
27 26 24 23 21
232 226 215 208 197
114 109 102 98 91
471 454 431 414 391
1,163 1,121 1,083 1,042 1,004
439 427 412 399 385
R2R2R2R2R2 R1R1R1R1R1 PIV PIV PIV PIV PIV OOOOOTTTTT S1S1S1S1S1 S2S2S2S2S2
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January 21, 2012
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Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |
Time to book some profits in long positions but don't short
Nifty spot closed at 5048.605048.605048.605048.605048.60 this week, against a close of 48664866486648664866 last week. The Put-Call Ratio increased from 1.261.261.261.261.26 to 1.601.601.601.601.60 levels and
the annualized Cost of Carry is negative 1.08%1.08%1.08%1.08%1.08%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 23.94%23.94%23.94%23.94%23.94%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has significantly increased from 1.26 to 1.60 levels in
last one week. Reason behind this was quite obvious the strong
upside in market which forced call writers to cover their positions
and put writers to become active. 5000 and 5100 strikes which
were having huge call positions, in last two trading session
have reduced substantial open interest while put writers have
become active in them. 4900 and 5000 puts have witnessed
selling pressure the most.
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased substantially from
22.95% to 18.75% for current series at-the-money options.
Historical volatility (HV) is at 24.10% and that for BANKNIFTY
is trading at 36.49%. Liquid counters having very high HV are
PUNJLLOYD, ADANIENT, ESSAROIL, VIPIND and HDIL. Stocks
where HV are on lower side are DABUR, ABGSHIP,
SUNPHARMA, ASIANPAINT and CIPLA.
Nifty futures closed at a discount of 0.75 points against the
premium of 12.20 points to its spot. Next month future is trading
with premium of 28.95 points. Liquid counters where CoC is
high are RUCHISOYA, ABGSHIP, LITL, ADANIPORTS and
CROMPGREAV. Stocks with negative CoC are PUNJLLOYD,
AXISBANK, ASHOKLEY, HEROMOTOCO and ABB.
Total open interest of market has increased from ` 1,20,705/-
crores to ` 1,37,903/- crores. Stock futures open interest has
increased from ` 29,770/- crores to ` 33,118/- crores. Some of
the big names which added open interest are M&M, MARUTI,
GAIL, HDFCBANK and ITC. Open interest was shed in some
liquid counters like PUNJLLOYD, GITANJALI, JINDALSTEL,
CAIRN and PNB.
Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Scrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRN CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP : ` ` ` ` ` 346.40346.40346.40346.40346.40 LLLLLot Size : 1000ot Size : 1000ot Size : 1000ot Size : 1000ot Size : 1000 Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :
25th Jan, 2012
Expected Payoff View: Mildly Bullish
355.00
347.50
340.00
332.50
325.00
317.50
BEPBEPBEPBEPBEP::::: ` 337.50/-337.50/-337.50/-337.50/-337.50/-
Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk: ` 2,500/- Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit:rofit:rofit:rofit:rofit: Unlimited
If CAIRN closes on or above 340. If CAIRN continues to move below BEP.
NONONONONOTETETETETE::::: Profit can be booked before expiry if CAIRN moves in favorable direction.
Strategy: Long Put
Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy RateBuy RateBuy RateBuy RateBuy Rate
PPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype ((((( ` ` ` ` ` )))))
BUY 1000 CAIRN 340 JAN PUT 2.50
Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpected((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) PPPPProfit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lossossossossoss
( ` 2.50)
( ` 2.50)
( ` 2.50)
` 5.00
` 12.50
` 20.00
Derivative Strategy
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Weekly
Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Ratings (Returns) :
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Weekly
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