WaterNSW
Operations update
Murrumbidgee Valley
August 2019
WaterNSW
3
Drought Situation
Update
WaterNSW
Water NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW
Dam Storages
4
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Burrinjuck Dam storage
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Dam Storages
5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Blowering Dam storage
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
WaterNSW
Current Resource Breakdown 15 July 2019
6
7
NSW rainfall
8
NSW rainfall
9
NSW rainfall
10
Maximum temperature
11
Maximum temperature
Inflows are consistent with rainfall over
the past 6 months.
Actual inflow for the 6 months is 78 GL
in line with about 89 percentile inflows;
while the minimum is 36 GL
Inflows are consistent with rainfall over
the past 12 months.
Actual inflow for the 12 months is 200 GL
in line with about 99 percentiles; while
the minimum is 197 GL.
Burrinjuck Dam Inflows
12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19
Cu
mu
lativ
e In
flo
ws
(GL)
Burrinjuck Dam actual vs statistical inflows
6 months from Jan 2019
20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jul-18
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Ma
r-1
9
Ap
r-1
9
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19C
um
ula
tive
In
flo
ws
(GL)
Burrinjuck Dam actual vs statistical inflows
12 months from Jul 2018
20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals
These inflows are exclusive of Snowy
Hydro’s Required Annual Release
volumes.
Inflows are consistent with rainfall over
the past 6 months.
Actual inflow for the 6 months is 50 GL
in line with about 85 percentile inflows;
while the minimum is 24 GL
Inflows are consistent with rainfall
over the past 12 months.
Actual inflow for the 12 months is 180
GL in line with about 91 percentile
inflows; while the minimum is 78 GL. .
Blowering Dam Inflows
13
0
50
100
150
200
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19
Cu
mu
lativ
e In
flo
ws
(GL)
Blowering Dam actual vs statistical inflows
6 months from Jan 2019
20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals
0
200
400
600
800
Jul-18
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Ma
r-1
9
Ap
r-1
9
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Cu
mu
lativ
e In
flo
ws
(GL)
Blowering Dam actual vs statistical inflows
12 months from Jul 2018
20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals
Inflows are consistent with rainfall
over the past 6 months.
Actual inflow for the 6 months is 60
GL in line with about 88 percentile
inflows; while the minimum is 40 GL
Inflows are consistent with rainfall
over the past 12 months.
Actual inflow for the 12 months is 121
GL which is following 97 percentile
inflow condition; while the minimum
is 90 GL.
Tributary Inflows
14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19
Cu
mu
lativ
e In
flo
ws
(GL)
D/S Tributaries actual vs statistical inflows
6 months from Jan 2019
20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jul-18
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Ma
r-1
9
Ap
r-1
9
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19C
um
ula
tiv
e In
flo
ws
(GL)
D/S Tributaries actual vs statistical inflows
12 months from Jul 2018
20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals
15
Drought Outlook
WaterNSWWater NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW
16
Climate Outlook
ENSO Outlook
17
18
What are we doing
Now?
2019/20 Water Availability for
Murrumbidgee River
General Security Available Water Determination
Date AWD ML/Share Total %
Last non-zero general security
AWD was on 17 Sep 2018
0.01
19
Licence Category
Share
Component
Available
balance
AWD
Volume
Carryover
In
Allocation
Assignments
In
Allocation
Assignments
Out Usage
COLEAMBALLY IRRIGATION (CONVEYANCE) 130,000 111,605 111,605 0 0 0 0
DOMESTIC AND STOCK 19,260 18,796 19,234 -18 0 0 278
DOMESTIC AND STOCK [DOMESTIC] 271 175 271 -16 0 0 0
DOMESTIC AND STOCK [STOCK] 10,626 10,116 10,515 0 0 0 6
LOCAL WATER UTILITY 23,816 22,982 23,816 0 0 0 445
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSFER 307 0 0 0 0 0 0
MURRUMBIDGEE IRRIGATION (CONVEYANCE) 243,000 147,187 150,247 1 0 0 1,360
REGULATED RIVER (CONVEYANCE) 2,968 0 0 0 0 0 0
REGULATED RIVER (GENERAL SECURITY) 1,891,995 141,706 0 151,669 32,944 40,806 1,655
REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) 360,298 331,067 342,284 -145 855 11,056 786
REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [ABORIGINAL CULTURAL] 2,150 2,150 2,150 0 0 0 0
REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [ENVIRONMENTAL] 3,982 3,401 3,401 0 0 0 0
REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [RESEARCH] 300 300 300 0 0 0 0
REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [TOWN WATER SUPPLY] 19,769 19,769 19,769 0 0 0 0
SUPPLEMENTARY WATER 198,780 197,969 197,969 0 761 761 0
SUPPLEMENTARY WATER (LOWBIDGEE) 747,000 747,000 747,000 0 0 0 0
Grand Total 3,654,522 1,754,223 1,628,562 151,669 34,559 52,623 4,529
Storage Forecast
20
Considers extreme dry scenario with conservative budgets for system losses and reduced Required Annual Release from Snowy Hydro (i.e. increased Dry Inflow Sequence Volume).
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jul-17
Au
g-1
7
Oc
t-1
7
De
c-1
7
Feb
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jun
-18
Au
g-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
De
c-1
8
Feb
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jun
-19
Au
g-1
9
Oc
t-1
9
De
c-1
9
Feb
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jun
-20
Au
g-2
0
Oc
t-2
0
De
c-2
0
Feb
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jun
-21
En
d o
f M
on
th S
tora
ge
(G
L)
Burrinjuck Dam forecast storage capacity
updated mid - July 2019
Wet scenario (20%) Average scenario (50%) Dry scenario (80%) Extreme dry scenario (99%) Actual
* Including Snowy releases
Storage Forecast
21
Considers extreme dry scenario with conservative budgets for system losses and reduced Required Annual Release from Snowy Hydro (i.e. increased Dry Inflow Sequence Volume).
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jul-17
Au
g-1
7
Oc
t-1
7
De
c-1
7
Feb
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jun
-18
Au
g-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
De
c-1
8
Feb
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jun
-19
Au
g-1
9
Oc
t-1
9
De
c-1
9
Feb
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jun
-20
Au
g-2
0
Oc
t-2
0
De
c-2
0
Feb
-21
Ap
r-2
1
Jun
-21
En
d o
f M
on
th S
tora
ge
(G
L)
Blowering Dam forecast storage capacity
updated mid - July 2019
Wet scenario (20%) Average scenario (50%) Dry scenario (80%) Extreme dry scenario (99%) Actual
* Including Snowy releases
Drought Operations Plan▪ Maintain airspace in all re-regulation storages (subject to level of service) to capture any
tributary inflows and or irrigation rejection.
▪ Berembed Weir
▪ Gogeldrie Weir
▪ Hay Weir operational supply level
▪ Maude Weir
▪ Redbank Weir
▪ Potential block-releases in identified river sections to supply customers in effluent creeks and anabranches (e.g., Uri Creek, Beavers - Old man creek, etc.)
▪ Maximise use of Irrigation escapes in the Yanco system to meet water orders / system demands
▪ Consider a trial of reduced lead-order times for works in strategic areas – based on system infrastructure – limits on extraction rate and total volume
▪ Consider the risk profile of surplus against supply shortfall.
▪ Develop operational procedures to share smaller supplementary events in an equitable manner.
▪ Intensify monitoring of water order – usage behaviour to minimise operational surplus
▪ Ensure all town water supply extraction sites are secure to access low flows
22
Policy Framework
Drought Management Plans
DoI Water development of the Temporary Water Restriction protocol
Valley Based Incident Response Guides
WaterNSW responsible for the preparation of drought management plans
for each valley
Including the development of management of criteria for assessing the
criticality of priority water use
Drought management plans are prepared in consultation with local
stakeholders
Drought Plans are approved by DoI Water with input from the CWAP
Temporary Water Restriction Process
Critical Dates
24
SN Drought Impacts Probable Impact Timeframe
1 Nil access to HS that are not for human usage Jul-19
2 Nil access to GS and restricted to usages other than
critical human needs and essential supplies Jul-19
3 Limited water supply to Mungindi Jul-19
4 Limited replenishment flow to Boomi River Sept/Oct-19
5 Limited access to S&D usage Jul-19
6 Algal blooms and increased chance of fish kills due to low
storage levels Sept/Oct-19
7 Potential restricted delivery for some of the towns (e.g.
Goondiwindi, Mungindi) Jul-19
8 Water quality issues at low storage levels May/Jun-20
Rainfall Event Forecasting and Monitoring
• WaterNSW monitors rainfall and inflows
• Based on recorded inflows WaterNSW operates the system to the
current drought management plan
• If current drought restriction are to be changed WaterNSW to
prepare change plan and justification for DoI Water approval
• DoI W and WaterNSW communicate changes
Temporary Water Restriction Process
Drought Monthly Valley Assessment
• WaterNSW monitors and reports on the drought situation around the state
including the drought priority assessments
• WaterNSW recommends drought management strategy changes based
on reported conditions and reasons for changes (public interest test)
• DPIE Water assess drought conditions and actions and approves course
on action (regulatory alignment)
• DPIE and WaterNSW update drought situation and water restriction orders
• DPIE Water and WaterNSW communicate changes
Temporary Water Restriction Process
Mapping of Critical
Water Supplies
Water NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW
Criticality of Water Supply Assessment
• WaterNSW plan to run through with local stakeholder the process to managing flow event and justifying the need for Temporary Water Restrictions
• Develop criteria for the assessment of critical water supply status
• Produce a map of the State to show what areas of have been identified as critical which will be undated as situation changes
• Examples shown in follow slides
Walgett Water SupplyXx Volume in storage
Pian Creek S&D Supply120 Days of cease to Flow
Namoi River D/s Wee WeaS&D Supply
120 Days of cease to Flow
Namoi River U/S Wee WeaS&D/HS Supply
90 Days of cease to Flow
Criticality of Water Supply Criteria - Namoi
1. Identification of critical Environmental Sites - prepared for the Macquarie
2. Development of Monitoring Program – under development
3. Development of Response Strategy – to be developed
Critical Environmental Sites
31
Keep Informed
WaterNSW
Water NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW
Visit the website at:
waternsw.com.au/drought
For information on the Macquarie Valley including water availability reports and drought reports go to:
waternsw.com.au/supply/drought-information/regional-nsw/
Call us on: 1300 662 077
Subscribe at: waternsw.com.au/subscribe
For weekly customer drought updates and more information
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