Languages
Pages
Legal
…A Light for My Path.Psalms 119:105b
Want Big Fish?
Fish Where the Big Fish Swim—Updated
2016
The art of Technical Analysis, for it is an art,
is to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and then ride that trend
until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed.
Martin Pring
Clarify, Simplify & Multiply
Disclaimer
• U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures
and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware
of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets.
Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to
Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to
achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this training. The past performance of any
trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
• CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN
LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT
REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE
RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN
MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN
GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY
TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
• All Materials presented are for training purposes only . Traders should paper trade any new method
prior to risk of personal capital.
Copyright 2007-2017
Copyright 2007-2017
Dennis W. Wilborn, Sr., P.E.
• Founder & Lead Technical Analysis at Active Trend Trading
• http://activetrendtrading.com/
• Organizer Bay Area Money Makers
• Host: “How to Make Money Trading Stocks—Market
Stock Talk”
• Featured Guest —”IBD Radio Show”
• Trader since 1988
• IBD student since about 1993
• Affiliate with Market Technician Assc.
• Certified Candlestick Technician
• Presenter Golden Gate University on Technical
Analysis
• Past Forbes Contributor
Where to go for Big Fish?
Fish Where the Big Fish Swim! But, Where is that?
Copyright 2007-2017
Where is that?
What Lake? But this isn’t the total answer!
- If you fish in the right lake but fish from the dock your results will be
based on luck!
What side of the Lake? Refining the search!
What Cove? Refining the search!
What time of year? Refining the search!
What time of Day? Refining the search!
So the fisherman does his homework and does everything
right—there is still no guarantee he will catch fish!
Copyright 2007-2017
Where to go for Big Fish?
Where to go for Big Stocks?
Where do the Big Stock Swim?
What’s the Lake? IBD
Which side of Lake? IBD Special List
What Cove? IBD 50
What time of year/day? Big Picture & Market Pulse & Current Outlook
Copyright 2007-2017
In 2010 I began tracking the initial IBD 100 of 2010 to assess its strength as
a stock picking system. Did this list really point traders and investors to the
Trophy sized Stocks?
The results were pretty remarkable even if one had only tracked and traded
the original list for the year.
Results for the Top 10 stocks from that list
Copyright 2007-2017
Where to go for Big Stocks?
Impressive One Year Results—But what about other years?
Thus the journey began!
Went to my beginning list from 2009! Great results!
In 2011 the IBD 100 was converted to the IBD 50 to provide a more focused
list. If one would have taken the first list from this year was there enough
movement in the price action to support a profitably Trend Following
Strategy? Great Results!
Went to the IBD Archives for 2007 & 2008: Great Results!
Five years worth of data—with each year leading to Great Results!
Added each year through 2016—Great Results!
I think there may be a trend here!
Copyright 2007-2017
Where to go for Big Stocks?
Results 2007 Low to High Range
Trades would have required patience and diligence
Copyright 2007-2017
Results 2008 Bear Market: Low to High Range
Low Priced Stocks would not have bought
But Wait, There’s More!
Copyright 2007-2017
Results 2008 Beginning of Year to Pre-Low High
First Clue of the Cyclic Nature Of the IBD 50/100Copyright 2007-2017
Distractor Say “You’re Cherry Picking!” My response, “Really?”
What does the study show? Using the S&P as the benchmark how many
stocks on the list beat the S&P in the tradable rally from High to Low?
Where to go for Big Stocks?—Cherry Picking?
Copyright 2007-2017
2009 Lowest % of Stocks beating S&P
2016 S&P Gain for the Year 9.54%
Where to go for Big Stocks?—Cherry Picking?
What about 2016?
Copyright 2007-2017
What about 2016?
Copyright 2007-2017
What about 2016?
Copyright 2007-2017
What about 2016?
Copyright 2007-2017
What to Expect for 2017
Copyright 2007-2017
Based on 10 years of tracking
1. Similar pattern of IBD 50 stocks outperforming the
Indexes
2. A significant number of stocks with high double digit
moves to the upside & downside
Be prepared to meet the opportunities when they appear
What else is on the Radar
Copyright 2007-2017
While the IBD 50 provides an excellent place to find big
winners, what about when the fish aren’t biting?
- In 2016 we added a premium stable of leveraged ETFs to
take advantage of Seasonality in things like Gold, Oil,
Financials and BioTech
- The Next Video will provide additional information about
how these help round what we trade at Active Trend
Trading
Watch for the notification of our next video about the Active
Trend Trading System to be released early in 2017.
Bonus Slides
Copyright 2007-2017
Running List and Prep Mechanics
Want Big Stocks?—Prep
Copyright 2007-2017
170 stocks to review is too many…..
50 stocks to review is to many…..
My routine to hone down the list to my Action List
1. Simple Sort for the Best of the Best
2. Review IBD 50 Thumbnails Tuesday & Saturday
3. Sort the Running List Weekly based on my Entries
requirement
4. Sort my Action List Daily (This list change very seldom)
At each step the best stocks float to the surface
Want Big Stocks?—Prep
Copyright 2007-2017
The Sort
1. Download IBD 50 Twice per week
2. Set up sort based on Lee Tanner’s Criteria
Comp Rating ≥ 90-95
EPS ≥ 90-95
RS Rating ≥ 90-95
Up/Down Volume ≥ 0.90
Annual Earnings Growth ≥ 25%
Quarterly Earnings Growth ≥ 25%
Quarterly Sales Growth ≥ 20%
ROE ≥ 17%
PTM ≥ 18%
ROE + PTM ≥ 30%
Go to the IBD site
Want Big Stocks?—Prep
Copyright 2007-2017
Honing the List Down:
Once a Week Review
Want Big Stocks?—Prep
Copyright 2007-2017
Once a week review
Want Big Stocks?—Prep
Copyright 2007-2017
Also Check:
1. Sector Leaders
2. Stock Analysis
3. IPO’s
4. Big Cap 20
5. High Demand Stocks page B12
Want Big Stocks?—Prep
Copyright 2007-2017
Weekly Sort of Running List - 170 stock to 10 in less than a second
- Similar sort on IBD 50 after swapping the Outs & Ins
- Now What?
Want Big Stocks?—Prep
Copyright 2007-2017
Do the stocks meet my criteria for:
- Volume Profile
- Pattern Profile
- Option Availability
I continue to tighten the requirements on the Big List until just
a few of the best remain!
I now have a list that I can trade with no concern for
- Fundamentals
- Volume
- Other Variables
I can now focus just on Active Trend Trading Criteria and
building a portfolio of great growth stocks..
Want Big Stocks?—Prep
Copyright 2007-2017
The Action List : My Search Is Done
- Daily sort of Action List
-This List Does Not Change much during the year
I know that between this list and Index Leveraged
ETFs there are several 100% winners
Patience & Trust in a Winning System
Index Seasonality
Monday Effect
Days of the Month
Note: January Effect, Summer Effect
and End of Year EffectMonthly
Index Seasonality—How to Use It
Note: January Effect, Summer Effect
and End of Year EffectMonthly
Sell in May and Go Away? No
The IBD 50 and Running List follow a pattern similar to the Indexes
1. Peak in Jan-Feb
2. Feb-April: Pull back to yearly low
3. May-Aug: Put in the Yearly High
4. Sept-Oct: Pullback
5. Oct-Dec: End of Year Run
The next BAMM Webinar will cover Seasonality of Commodities,
Financials & Biotech's
Questions
Copyright 2007-2017
ATTS Objectives: Provide a clear & simple trading systems for busy people! So they can become Wise, Profitable and Winning Traders!
1. Active Trend Trading Membership: $54.99 per month but you save 40% limit time: $32.99
2. Early Warning Alerts for Index ETFs: Yearly membership $999 limited time: $399.00/YearSave more than 60%
For the special membership offer:
http://activetrendtrading.com/monthly-membership-introduction/
Top Related