Valuing Agility: A Demand-Led Approach
to Capability ManagementPhilip Boxer
30th September 2009
Senior Member of Technical Staff Software Engineering InstituteCarnegie Mellon UniversityPittsburgh, PA 15213-2612
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 1
SEI Work on Ultra-Large-Scale Systems
Some Characteristics of ULS systems:
• Decentralization
• Continuous evolution and deployment
• Heterogeneous, inconsistent, and changing elements
• Erosion of the people/system boundary
• New paradigms for acquisition and policy
SEI Research :
• Computational Mechanism Design
• Architecture in ULS system context
• Assurance in ULS systems
• Distributed governance in dynamic contexts
ULS Challenges:• We need to think ‘socio-technical
ecosystems’ -
includes people, organizations, and technologies at all scales with significant and competing interdependencies.
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 2
Analyzing end-to-end sensor and data fusion processes (e.g. Multi-Sensor Integration)
‘Small-scale’ Analysis establishing operational performance of software-reliant systems and sensors
Identifying the interoperability risks across multiple parts of the SoS (e.g. AWACS modernisation)
‘Medium-scale’ Analysis fitting together multiple stakeholders’ perspectives on how particular systems of systems support demand
Thinking ‘socio-technical ecosystems’:The modeling and analysis needs to be done across the different scales
Establishing alternative economics of delivering force cohesion ‘at the edge’ (e.g. through the use of Tactical UAVs)
‘Large-scale’ Analysis ‘multi-sided’ analysis of the deployed force relationship to demand
The challenge is consistency
across different scales
The challenge is consistency
across different
scales
The challenge is alignment across the different
scales
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 3
Outline
Introduction
1. Defining Agility
2. Maximising Value for Defence
3. Cohesion-based costing as key
Conclusion
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 4
Through-Life Capability Management: the example of Tactical UAV
Phoenix and Watchkeeper UAVs were conceived as extensions to existing concepts of operation:
• Phoenix provided better target acquisition (TUAV I)
• Watchkeeper provided better servicing of a Commander’s Critical Information Requirements (TUAV II)
For TUAVs I & II, the focus was on the capabilities of the system itself.
The close coupling of Hermes 450 UAS capability to fighters on the ground reflected an increased campaign tempo, and
• The need for much greater tactical agility (TUAV III)
For TUAV III, the focus shifted to the variety of demands on the way the system can be used.
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 5
The demand for Agility: managing three diverging tempos
Defence Enterprise
Adapted from: Appropriate Collaboration and Appropriate Competition in C4ISTAR Transformation, Dr Nicholas Whittall RUSI 2007
Alignment Tempo
Operational Capability
Operational Capability
Operational Capability
Orchestration
Agility means always being able to align composite capabilities to demand at campaign tempo
Agility means being able to align composite capabilities to demand at campaign tempo
Divergence of tempos increases costs of alignment
Divergence of tempos increases costs of alignment
Gap = NeedAcquisition
Requirement
TrainingEquipmentPersonnel
InfrastructureDoctrine/Concepts
OrganizationInformation
Logistics
Suppliers
Operational Capability
Acquisition Tempo
Effect
Demand/ ThreatCampaign
(Demand) Tempo
Composite Capability
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 6
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Re
lati
ve C
ost
Cumulative Costs
in-service costs
Support costs
Planned equipment costs
Cost to suppliers
IPT costs
The through-life costs of TUAV I & II capability
TUAV III UOR expenditure:
TUAV I IPT
TUAV II IPT
Cumulative Cost
The costs of modernization
in-service costssupport costsplanned equipment costscost to suppliersIPT costs
• The TUAV III UOR costs were of the same order as the planned equipment costs
Through-life timeframe 1980-
2030
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 7
1. Agility means always being able to meet campaign tempo
2. Maximising Value for Defence
3. Cohesion-based costing as key
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 8
demand-side operational space
supply-side acquisition space
The Engineering ‘V’ and the Alignment ‘’
Boxer, P.J. (2007) Managing the SoS Value Cycle, January 2007, http://www.asymmetricdesign.com/archives/85
Effects on Demand/ Threat
Orchestration of Composite Capabilities
Synchronization by Mission Command
Force Structures
Strategic Scenarios
Solution
System components
System integration
Operational Capabilities
Capability gaps
Design decomposition
Requirement
Demand/ Threat Tempo
Alignment Tempo
Acquisition Tempo
The variety of compositions is as
important as the most stressing use for a
particular capability
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 9
Supply-side activities supporting Demand-side Cohesion: focusing on the cost of the delivered service
Demands on the
Defence EnterpriseSuppliers
Supplier 1
Supplier 2
Client Defence Enterprise
operational
capability
operational
capabilityo
rch
estr
atio
n
synchronization
Defence Enterprise
Cohesion-based Costs
Acquisition Tempo
Alignment Tempo
Demand/ Threat Tempo
Activity-based Costs
Costs of Alignment
Increasing variety of compositions is a
key driver
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 10
The relationship between Agility and Value for Defence: Value for Defence is maximised when agility is delivered at minimum cohesion cost
Equipment & other
DLODs
Cohesion-based Costs
Activity-based Costs
Costs of Alignment
Varieties of Demand
Effects
Treasury
Expenditures PSA
Defence
Enterprise
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 11
1. Agility means always being able to meet campaign tempo
2. Value for Defence is maximised when this agility is delivered at minimum cost
3. Cohesion-based costing as key
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 12
Providing better target acquisition (TUAV I)• Each line represents a relationship that generates cost
Command and Operational Capability
Modeling across the different scales: Understanding the alignment processes
Prime Contractor’s Supply Chain
Forces Organisation
Procurement Authorities
Procurement Authorities
Orchestration in relation to Demand/Threat Context
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 13
Providing better servicing of CCIRs (TUAV II)• A more complex system focused on its wider integration
WatchkeeperSystem
Modeling across the different scales: Understanding the alignment processes
Command and Operational Capability
Prime Contractor’s Supply Chain
Procurement Authorities
Prime Contractor’s Supply Chain
Procurement Authorities
Forces Organisation
Orchestration in relation to Demand/Threat Context
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 14
individual in
afghan-
pakistan
border
individual in
kabul city
centre blue
zone
terrorist
escape in
small boat off
ni west coast
drug runners in
columbia with
target of value
occasional
shoot-n-scoot
teams in tribal
areas
stinger
missiles in
baghdad city
centre
interdict
ion of
fleeting
target
counter-insurgency domain
disrupting
command
reducing
negative
political
influence
threat
deterrence
prevention
of tactics
Threat Situations
kabul
tuav
h450
border
male
reaper
border
hale
global
hawk
border
hale
global
hawk
kabul
tuav
h450
border
male
reaper
kabul
tuav
h450
border
hale
global
hawk
border
male
reaper
border
hale
global
hawk
border
hale
outputs
border
male
outputs
border
male
reaper
kabul
tuav
outputskabul
tuav
h450
isaf h
q
bord
er is
r ce
ll
bord
er h
ale
bm
bord
er
hale
glob
al
haw
k
border
hale on
station
border
hale
tasking
border
hale
caoc
ato
border
sf
border
male
on
station
bord
er re
ape
r
strik
e c
ell
bord
er m
ale
bm
border
male
tasking
border
sf
bo
rder s
f ce
ll
border
sf
tasking
afghan
report
afghan border
strike
border
intellig
ence
cell
border
intellige
nce cell
border
intel
report
bord
er
male
oper
ator
bord
er sf
border
male
strike
bord
er
male
strik
e
ka
bu
l tua
v
strik
e c
ell
ka
bu
l tua
v
bm
kabul sf
strike
tasking
kabul
sf
strike
HUMINT would be providing
the equivalent of the HALE
input to the Kabul process
coa
stg
uard
nimrod
fast
patrol
craft
sea
king
nimrod
nimrod
on
station
nimrod
tuav
sea
ma
ritime c
ell
flee
t hq
ship
sea
king
sea
king on
station
tuav
sea
tuav
sea on
station
fast
patrol
boat
interce
ption
and
arrest
ship
arrest sync
uk g
ov
Like afghanistan… tuav
allows us to put video link to
coastguard to deal with
numbers… and provide
positive id, and also
PERSISTENCE
sp
ecia
l
bra
nch
Originating intelligence
Otical id substitutes for uav
optics… comms goes back
via their hq
NB role of AIS to screen stuff
tuav
sea
clo
se a
ir
pa
trol
Air traffic order is tasking
Air traffic control is
synchronisation
torn
ad
o
tornad
o
bunker
strike
torn
ado
Sf will bring the tornado in
Put the strike back in so that
we can trade immediate
strike against the team vs
take the bunker out
border
caoc
border
caoc
bord
er c
aoc
border caoc
atc sync
individual in
afghan-
pakistan
border
bord
er
hale
glob
al
haw
k
border
male
caoc
ato
kabul
humint
kabul
humint
ka
bu
l hum
int
cell
humint
kabul
report
kabul
sf
tasking
Afghanistan
isa
f hq
kabul sf
kabul
sf
kab
ul s
f cell
kabul sf
tasking
sf
kabul
report
kabu
l sf
bord
er
inte
lligen
ce
ce
ll
intellig
ence
cell
kabul
intellige
nce cell
kabul
intel
report
inte
llige
nce
cell
kabul
caoc
kabul
caoc
tuav
atokabul
tuav
tasking
kabul
humint
kabul
humint
kabul
humint
tasking
border
sf
border
sf
kabul sf
kabul
sf
kabu
l sf
kabul strike
kabul caoc atc
sync
Kabul
terrorist
escape in
small boat off
ni west coast
baghd
ad
tuav
h450
baghda
d tuav
h450
baghd
ad
tuav
h450
baghda
d tuav
outputs
baghda
d tuav
h450
bag
hd
ad
tuav
strik
e c
ell
bag
hd
ad
tuav
bm
baghda
d
humint
strike
tasking
baghda
d
humint
strike
baghda
d
humint
tasking
iraq h
q
baghda
d
humint
baghd
ad
humint
bag
hd
ad
hum
int c
ell
baghda
d
humint
tasking
bagdha
d
report
bag
hda
d
humi
nt
baghd
ad
intellig
ence
cell
baghda
d
intellige
nce cell
baghda
d intel
report
bag
hd
ad
inte
lligen
ce
ce
ll
baghda
d caoc
baghda
d caoc
tuav
atobaghda
d tuav
tasking
baghda
d
humint
baghd
ad
humint
bag
hda
d
humi
nt
baghdad strike
baghdad caoc
atc sync
baghdad
stinger
missiles in
baghdad city
centre
fast
patr
ol
craft
arre
st c
ell
arrest
special
branch
special
branch
cell special
branch
intel
coastgu
ard
tasking
ship
tasking
nimrodnimrod
locatin
g
arre
st
cell
arrest
cell
arrest
cell
nimr
od
nimrod
tasking
sea
king
sea
king
sea
king
locatin
g
sea
king
tuav
sea
tuav
sea
tuav
sea
locatin
g
Terrorist arrest
tribal
male
reaper
tribal
hale
global
hawk
tribal
hale
global
hawk
tribal
male
reaper
tribal
hale
global
hawk
tribal
male
reaper
tribal
hale
global
hawk
hale
tribal
outputs
male
tribal
outputs
tribal
male
reaper
isa
f hq
triba
l isr c
ell
triba
l hale
bm
tribal
hale
glob
al
haw
k
hale on
tribal
station
hale
tribal
tasking
hale
tribal
caoc
ato
tribal sf
male
on
tribal
station
triba
l reap
er
strik
e c
ell
triba
l ma
le
bm
male
tribal
tasking
tribal sf
tribal s
f cell
sf tribal
tasking
tribal
report
tribal reaper
strike
tribal
intellig
ence
cell
tribal
intellige
nce cell
intel
tribal
report
tribal
male
oper
ator
tribal
sf
male
tribal
strike
tribal
male
strik
e
tribal
caoc
tribal
caoc
triba
l cao
c
tribal caoc atc
sync
tribal
hale
glob
al
haw
k
male
tribal
caoc
ato
Tribal Lands
triba
l
inte
llige
nce
cell
tribal sf
tribal sf
occasional
shoot-n-scoot
teams in tribal
areas
tribal sf bunker
strike
bomb
on
targetcaoc
tribal
tornado
ato
caoc
tornado
tribal
tasking
border
sf on
station
kabu
l
humi
nt
kabul
humint
on
station
kabul
sf on
station
tribal sf
on
station
baghda
da
humint
on
station
kabul
caoc
kab
ul c
aoc
baghd
ad
caoc
bag
hd
ad
ca
oc
uk g
ov
uk g
ov
uk g
ov
uk g
ov
Baghdad
Tribal lands
Kabul
Sea
Afghan border
Modeling across the different scales: Understanding the alignment processes
Much greater tactical agility across a variety of orchestrations (TUAV III)• Decisive points dependent on the interdiction of fleeting targets
Tribal lands
Kabul
Sea
Baghdad
Afghan border
Demand across a necessary variety of
orchestrations
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 15
Analysis across the different scales: Cohesion-based costing
The ability to analyse across different scales offers two useful outputs:• The cohesion costs of any particular decisive point in a campaign• The range of possible costs across a variety of decisive points across a range of campaigns
Modeling Alignment Processes
Modeling the variety of orchestrations
Analyzing alignment to demand
Analysing the relationships between the different layers of alignment
5-6
col1
x 5
un
ito
rder
\bo
rder
_isr
_cel
l
un
ito
rder
\bo
rder
_re
aper
_str
ike_
cell
un
ito
rder
\bo
rder
_sf_
cell
un
ito
rder
\afg
han
_bo
rder
_str
ike
un
ito
rder
\bo
rder
_cao
c_at
c_sy
nc
un
ito
rder
\bo
rder
_hal
e_b
m
un
ito
rder
\bo
rder
_mal
e_b
m
trac
even
t\b
ord
er_m
ale_
ou
tpu
ts
trac
even
t\b
ord
er_h
ale_
on
_sta
tio
n
trac
even
t\b
ord
er_m
ale_
on
_sta
tio
n
trac
even
t\b
ord
er_m
ale_
stri
ke
trac
even
t\af
ghan
_rep
ort
trac
even
t\b
ord
er_s
f_o
n_s
tati
on
trac
even
t\in
div
idu
al_i
n_a
fgh
an-p
akis
tan
_bo
rder
chan
nel
\bo
rder
_hal
e_b
m
chan
nel
\bo
rder
_mal
e_b
m
chan
nel
\bo
rder
_isr
_cel
l
chan
nel
\bo
rder
_re
aper
_str
ike_
cell
chan
nel
\bo
rder
_sf_
cell
c_si
tn\i
nd
ivid
ual
_in
_afg
han
-pak
ista
n_b
ord
er
orchn\afghan_border_strike 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
outcome\border_hale_on_station 1 1 1 1 1 1
outcome\border_male_on_station 1 1 1 1 1 1
outcome\border_male_strike 1 1 1 1 1 1
outcome\border_sf_on_station 1 1 1 1
khow\border_sf 1 1 1 1 1 1
khow\border_male_strike 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
khow\border_hale_global_hawk 1 1 1
design\border_hale_global_hawk 1 1
design\border_male_operator 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
capy\border_hale_global_hawk 1 1
capy\border_male_reaper 1 1 1 1 1
capy\border_sf 1 1 1 1 1
system\border_hale_global_hawk 1 1
system\border_male_reaper 1 1 1 1 1 1
system\border_sf 1 1
process\border_hale_global_hawk 1 1
process\border_male_reaper 1 1 1 1 1
process\border_sf 1 1 1 1 1
dprocess\border_hale_global_hawk 1
dprocess\border_male_reaper 1 1 1 1
Costing Cohesion of Mission Capabilities
Generating cohesion costing templates
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 16
Pricing Agility: valuing the impact of greater TUAV flexibility
Baseline average cohesion cost of the capability
b
~25% saving from using a more flexible TUAV capability
~25% saving from the more flexible TUAV
capability
Equipment & other
DLODs
Varieties of Demand
Effects
Defence
Enterprise
~12.5% saving from the reduction in range
~12.5% saving from the reduction in range
a
Probability
Level of defence expenditure on Concurrent Campaigns
The range of possible
expenditures across concurrent
campaigns
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 17
What should the supplier be paid? Determining the maximum price
The analysis of cohesion costs delivers:• A baseline range of costs of delivering this variety of decisive points
• A lower average cost and a narrower range of costs of delivering this same variety with more flexible TUAV capability
Probability
Level of defence expenditure on Concurrent Campaigns
a
b
~25% saving from using a more flexible TUAV capability
~12.5% saving from the reduction in range
The price should reflect the impact on both the average and the range
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 18
1. Agility means always being able to meet campaign tempo
2. Value for Defence is maximised when this agility is delivered at minimum cost
3. Cohesion-based costing is key in maximising Value for Defence
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 19
To conclude
A demand-side perspective uncovers three tempos, which show• The supply-side shift in focus from equipment to capability, and
• The need for a further shift adding a demand-side focus on agility
Agility is defined as the ability to meet campaign tempo• This adds timeliness to the efficiency and effectiveness of capabilities
All forms of agility may not be affordable, so that some means of costing the variety of demands is required
• Cohesion-based costing provides a means.
Gap = NeedAcquisition
Requirement Defence Enterprise
Alignment
Tempo
Operational
Capability
Operational
Capability
Operational
CapabilityOrchestration
Training
EquipmentPersonnel
Infrastructure
Doctrine/ConceptsOrganization
InformationLogistics
Suppliers
Operational
Capability
Acquisition
Tempo
Effect
Demand/
ThreatCampaign
(Demand)
Tempo
Composite
Capability
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 20
1. Agility means always being able to meet campaign tempo
2. Value for Defence is maximised when this agility is delivered at minimum cost
3. Cohesion-based costing is key to maximising Value for Defence
Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 21
Top Related