Using existing international social protection statistics &
indicators to measure and monitor progress towards social
protection targets in post-2015 SDGs Social Protection Systems
Approach Ruslan Yemtsov, Maddalena Honorati (World Bank) Jeromin
Capaldo (ILO) 3 February 2015 SPIAC B Meeting UN Headquarters
Slide 2
Needs Social Protection can be Quantified, Monitored and
Evaluated Indicators include: Inventory (statutory) information:
what is out there Input indicators (budgets) Key performance
(output) indicators Indicators of impact OWG proposal Under Goal 1
End poverty in all its forms everywhere Implement nationally
appropriate social protection systems and measures for all,
including oors, and by 2030 achieve substantial coverage of the
poor and the vulnerable Statistical note for the issue brief:
Percentage of the population (including if possible information on
coverage of migrants) with access to adequate and predictable cash
benefits in case of need during their whole lifecycle, considering
children, people in active age, pregnant women, older persons, and
persons with disabilities. Percentage of the population protected
against the financial costs of ill-health (e.g. through social
health insurance or other mechanisms). NEEDS GAPS & ISSUES
Solutions
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Needs Dashboard of indicators: - percentage of older people
receiving pension; - percentage of families with children protected
against the financial costs of ill-health (e.g. through social
health insurance or other mechanisms); - percentage of people with
disabilities receiving disability benefits; - percentage of people
without employment receiving support; - percentage of poor
receiving adequate support; - percentage of the food insecure
population assisted through formal social protection programs. Each
of these indicators should be disaggregated by sex, and could also
be further disaggregated as far as possible by income, ethnicity
and other criteria to track the inclusion of different groups.
NEEDS GAPS & ISSUES Solutions
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What is coverage? Coverage has two dimensions: 1)scope of
coverage i.e. the number of SP areas (branches) to which different
population groups have access and 2)extent of coverage i.e. the
share of persons covered within the target group of different SP
programs. We are interested in the extent of coverage, which in
turns can be: a)legal (statutory) coverage, i.e. groups covered by
statutory schemes for a given social protection function/branch in
national legislation b)effective coverage, i.e. the proportion of
persons covered within the whole population or target group:
i.protected persons, i.e. the number of persons who have benefits
guaranteed but are not necessarily currently receiving them (e.g.
in contributory schemes those actually contributing/affiliated);
and ii.actual beneficiaries, i.e. the proportion of the population
affected by a certain contingency who actually receive the
respective benefit Why actual coverage? Because we can assess the
access only by observing those who are currently affected by a
contingency and receive/not receive the benefits NEEDS GAPS &
ISSUES Solutions
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How to measure coverage? Importance of both administrative
sources and household surveys data Administrative data Primary or
traditional source Data are (or: should be) regularly collected and
published by the institutions administering social security
schemes/programs Information on beneficiaries, benefits and persons
covered: indispensable for the administration, monitoring and
evaluation of the scheme/program Not explicitly collected for
research purposes and largely unexploited by research Principal
advantages: ideally... Complete information on persons protected
and actual beneficiaries (break-down by sex and age) Little
additional cost: data are collected for the regular functioning of
the scheme/program Disadvantages with regard to coverage
measurement Administrative data usually contain ample information
on those groups of the population that are covered but not on those
who are NOT covered ; Eligible non-recipients usually are not
captured Do not provide any insights on the causes and effects of
non-coverage. Double counting possible in the case of beneficiaries
receiving various benefits AND in many developing countries, often
poor quality and availability of such data in absence of properly
managed records and information system Difficult to capture schemes
that are less visible Fragmentation of sources (multiple schemes
and programmes) and lack of coordination at the national level
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Definitions of actual coverage: going a step deeper The
distinction between direct and indirect beneficiaries versus direct
beneficiaries is important, because alternative definitions of the
beneficiary unit may significantly affect the results. Depending on
the type of program and the target group, the direct beneficiary of
a safety net program may be an individual, a family, or a
household. However, in a broader sense, all household members
benefit from the additional resources provided by the program, thus
a strong economic rationale exists for assigning benefits to the
whole household when assessing the incidence of a program. Coverage
of direct beneficiaries Coverage of households Coverage of
individuals within the households
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Why coverage is not enough? What is adequacy? Because what is
relevant is access to adequate and predictable benefits in case of
need Conceptually, program coverage is a necessary, but not
sufficient, condition for a program to be effective: only if they
get the adequate treatment (cash, in-kind goods or services etc.)
and have a chance to ameliorate the condition for which the program
was initially designed. National specificity Common Principle:
Taken together, cash and in kind benefits should secure protection
against poverty, vulnerability and social exclusion and enable a
decent standard of living How to operationalize? Benefit level
Combined across programs (household survey vs. administrative data)
Minimum standards (poverty line) Consumption /income International
benchmarks NEEDS GAPS & ISSUES Solutions
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How to measure adequacy? Benefit level? How to measure it? .
Depending on sources (household survey versus administrative data)
Is it enough to divide total expenditure on benefits by the total
number of beneficiaries? SOLUTIONS Stock taking of current
practices and existing data in international organizations but also
from countries Think in terms of data to be collected from
administrative sources and associated methods Household surveys
(example of questions available in existing modules, existing
surveys) and associated methods Pension entitlements ? Other
contingencies could be part of a series of methodological
guidelines NEEDS GAPS & ISSUES Solutions
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Proposal for targets (ILO) Target 1: All older persons receive
an adequate pension Indicator: Share of persons above retirement
age that benefit from an old-age pension. Coverage data for this
target already exists for 175 countries. Currently, 51.5% of those
above retirement age benefit from a pension. Target 2: All children
receive appropriate support Indicator: Share of families with
children that receive support. Currently, 109 countries have a
child or family allowance scheme, and cash transfer schemes have
grown significantly. While there is not yet a consolidated figure
for families with children receiving basic income support, data is
widely available to monitor the achievement of this target. Target
3: All mothers receive support Indicator: Share of pregnant or
recent mothers who receive maternity benefits. 139 countries have a
formal maternity benefit program. Target 4: Those without jobs
receive adequate support Indicator: Share of unemployed in active
age who receive a regular unemployment benefit. Unemployment
indicators are available for 79 of the 85 countries where benefits
are available. Globally, 11.7% of unemployed persons receive some
form of support. Target 5: All persons with severe disabilities
receive appropriate support Indicator: Share of persons with severe
disabilities who receive a regular disability benefit. 171
countries have disability benefit programmes and administrative
data is available. Target 6: All workers receive employment injury
protection Indicator: Share of those covered against an
occupational accident. 172 countries administer employment injury
programs. NEEDS GAPS & ISSUES Solutions
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Gaps and Issues How to give more prominence vital basic
protection function. Poor and vulnerable (households which could
comprise children, older persons, persons with disability and other
socially excluded groups) need social protection to do what it
originally set out to do; to alleviate their economic deprivation
and social marginalization. Therefore target of covering 100% of
poor households with at least one social protection
measure/scheme/program is in line with the spirit of the GOAL ONE
and should be clearly stated. NEEDS GAPS & ISSUES
Solutions
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Example: Social protection in old age: pensions Source: ILO,
World Social Protection Report 2014-15
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Who is covered? Beneficiaries Proportion of older persons
receiving an old age pension
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Source: ILO, World Social Protection Report 2014-15 Who is
covered? Protected persons: Proportion of working-age population
(15-64) covered by pension schemes of all types
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1.Administrative program level data: Official government
reports /website Directly provided by government official through
country dialogue with WB Published WB country reports Information
collected by local consultants from government when official data
are not available 2.Nationally representative household surveys:
LSMS HH income expenditure/budget surveys Multiple Indicator
Cluster Surveys (MICs) Welfare Monitoring Surveys Statistics on
Income and Living Conditions (SILCs) LFS ASPIRE DATA SOURCES
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VALIDATION AND QUALITY ASSURANCE PROCESS PRIMARY DATA WITH KEY
INDICATO RS=>PRE LIMINARY RESULTS UNDER STAND COUNT RYS SP SYSTE
MS COMPAR E WITH OFFICIAL GOVERN MENT SOURCES AND REPORTS CONTRAS T
WITH EXISTING INTERNAT IONAL DATABAS ES CROSS- TIME CONSIST ENCY
CHECKS VALIDAT E WITH COUNTR Y TEAMS: VALIDAT E WITH GOVERN
MENTS:
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PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION
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Social assistance SA La bo r M ar ket Pr og ra ms (a cti ve an
d pa ssi ve ) LM Social Insurance (contributory) SI ASPIRE
CLASSIFICATION OF SPL PROGRAMS
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MOST OF THE POPULATION IN NEED RECEIVE NO SPL TRANSFERS
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GLOBAL COVERAGE OF SOCIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS
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SOCIAL ASSISTANCE COVERAGE OF POOREST QUINTILE OF POPULATION
Years: 2008 -2012 Low income Lower Middle Income Upper Middle
Income High Income
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GLOBAL COVERAGE OF POOREST HOUSEHOLDS BY SA TYPES Years:
2000--2012
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ADEQUACY OF SA BENEFITS
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ADEQUACY OF TRANSFERS VARIES BY COUNTRY SOCIAL PENSIONS ARE THE
MOST GENEROUS Between 2008 -2012
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COMBINING PERFORMANCE WITH COUNTRY CONTEXT INDICATORS
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Now in the Portal : Performance indicators based on HH surveys
for 112 developing countries between 1998-2012: Performance
indicators (by program category, quintiles of welfare, urban-rural)
Country context indicators (by gender, age groups, urban-rural)
Full documentation of main variables and program classification
Include links to IHSN through common survey ID Ongoing work to
harmonize program level administrative data on expenditures and
number of beneficiaries for 40 countries (incomplete data on 144
countries) Data collection ongoing in 14 countries (Africa and
Latin America) ADB and ECLAC WHERE ARE WE?
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External portal updated twice a year January 2015 Consolidated
estimates of existing indicators Indicators updates July 2015
Spending indicators Indicators updates State of Safety Nets 2015
(release June 2015) STAY TUNED!!! WHATS NEXT?
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FIND ASPIRE AT WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/ASPIRE
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Other issues and solutions How to define social protection
coverage? How to define/ categorize schemes and benefits? what
criteria / categories? Some established methods (Eurostat, OECD,
ILO,..) propose some classifications (ex.: SI/SA/LM; statutory /
non-statutory, public / private, in kind / in cash,
means-tested/non-means tested etc. How to define adequacy of
benefits? Why coverage is not enough? How to improve social
protection data collection through household surveys? No generic
and standardized method => issue of comparability Efforts to
develop standard modules of questions on social protection to be
included in regular national surveys (ILO generic module,
adaptation & application by ADB in several countries). New
joint guidelines Module of questions developed as part of ad-hoc
surveys. Specific social protection surveys
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Bogged down: Categorisation of schemes & benefits Benefits
features Schemes/ programs definition SP system Public Private
Contributory Non contributory Contributory Non contributory Older
persons Old age Survivors* Family / child benefit Active age
Sickness Disability/ Invalidity Unemployment Employment injury
Maternity Survivors* ALMP Housing * Other social assistance* Health
care benefit Function? Cash In- kind Type of benefit periodic
Lump-sum/ ad hoc periodic Lump-sum/ ad hoc Periodicity Means-tested
Not means tested Means-tested Not means tested Means-tested Not
means tested Means- tested or not Other criteria Poverty/livelihood
protection against destitution Risk management prevention Promotion
Statutory Non statutory Public Private Contributory Non
contributory Contributory Non contributory
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Road Map A few ideas! Short runMedium runLong run Provide
comments/inputs to the OWG proposal on core indicators and targets
Develop case studies on expanding SPL coverage with detailed data
stories Continue work in progress: e.g. .ASPIRE .Inventories of SPL
Guidelines on core SPL data to be collected through household
surveys (possible module of generic questions) Core standards in
defining social protection coverage and benefits (definition /
qualification of data) Increasing country coverage of
administrative and survey sources and main categories of data
(expenditure, coverage, benefits, impact,) Establishing a baseline
for all/most countries for core indicators Joint methodological
series on benefit level, coverage, etc. In country capacity
building work Annual progress monitoring Periodic statistical
meetings/ working group ROAD MAP Time line NEEDS GAPS & ISSUES
Solutions