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Thursday, 12 March 2009, 04:28
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 000516
SIPDIS
EO 12958 DECL: 08/04/2018
TAGS PREL, PTER, PGOV, PK
SUBJECT: LITTLE MOVEMENT ON RECONCILIATION
REF: A. ISLAMABAD 506 B. ISLAMABAD 508
Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)
1. (C) Summary. In a last-ditch effort to
reduce tensions with the Sharif brothers ahead
of the start of the lawyers' march on March
12, President Zardari offered Pakistan Muslim
League (PML) leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain
the post of Senate leader if PML would form a
government with the Pakistan People's Party
(PPP) in Punjab but will do little to pacify
Nawaz Sharif or the lawyers. Shujaat is
considering the deal, which will be sealed by
the March 12 vote in the Senate it could end
governor's rule in Punjab--if Shujaat can keep
the PML forward block in line. Other
compromise efforts have failed, although the
UK High Commission is probing for the various
parties' positions in advance of a possible
HMG mediation effort. After seeing Interior Minister Malik and
Awami National Party leader Asfundyar Wali Khan, Ambassador
will see Shujaat March 11 and the Sharifs on March 12.
2. (C) Amid reports of possible targeted killings and Mumbai
style attacks during the march, the GOP began arresting
Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI)
members and some civil activists. Interior Minister Malik
assured Ambassador he had no plans to arrest the Sharifs or
key civil society leaders like Aitzaz Ahsan, but caveated thisby saying he might have to arrest Imran Khan or others "who
did not obey the law." Lawyers and JI activists already have
begun infiltrating Islamabad if a significant number of
demonstrators cannot enter the capital, we expect protests in
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US embassy cables: Pakistani armychief hints at unseating Zardariguardian.co.uk, Tuesday 30 November 2010 22.06 GMT
Summary
As street protests
threaten to topple the
Pakistani government,the US ambassador
discusses ways to end
the crisis with leaders.
In one meeting the head
of the Pakistani army,
General Ashfaq Kayani,
tells her that he may be
forced to "persuade"
President Asif Ali
Zardari to resign. The
ambassador says the
comments are not an
indicator of an
imminent army coup.
Key passage highlighted
in yellow.
Read related article
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multiple areas, especially in Punjab, beginning March 12.
Accordingly, we are issuing a Warden Notice March 11.
3. (C) During Ambassador's fourth meeting in a week with Chief
of Army Staff (COAS) General Kayani on March 10, he again
hinted that he might, however reluctantly, have to persuade
President Zardari to resign if the situation sharply
deteriorates. He mentioned Asfundyar Wali Khan as a possible
replacement. This would not be a formal coup but would leave
in place the PPP government led by PM Gilani, thus avoiding
elections that likely would bring Nawaz Sharif to power. We do
not believe Army action is imminent. We do believe Kayani was
laying down a clear marker so that, if he has to act, he can
say he warned the U.S. in advance and gave us ample
opportunities to pressure both sides to back down. Kayani is
trying to leverage what he considers predominate U.S.
influence over Zardari, instead of seeking a direct
confrontation that could provoke an unhelpful civil-military
clash.
4. (C) Two weeks ago, Zardari was staring at victory on all
fronts today, he recognizes he must compromise with the
Sharifs and might well be looking over his shoulder at the
Army. Even if the lawyers' march fizzles--and it may--Nawaz
retains the high moral ground in public opinion and can
continue attacking a now weakened Zardari. We should encourage
Zardari to continue efforts to ease tensions and ask the
Saudis and the UAE to weigh in with their respective allies.
This could be a protracted process. End Summary.
Mediation/Confrontation/Collapse
--------------------------------
5. (C) There are three political scenarios in play as tensions
between President Zardari and the Sharif brothers rise ahead
of the start of the lawyers' march on March 12:
mediation/accommodation, which resolves the Sharifs'
disqualification from holding public office, ends governor's
rule in Punjab and addresses the judicial issue
confrontation, which leads to violence and possible Army
intervention and a fizzled march that sets the stage for
continued conflict.
Mediation/Accommodation
-----------------------
6. (C) On March 11, Awami National Party (ANP) leader
Asfundyar Wali Khan described to Ambassador and Polcouns his
ISLAMABAD 00000516 002 OF 004
mediation efforts with Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam leader Fazlur
Rehman over the past week. Zardari, he asserted, agreed to
request a review of the Supreme Court decision disqualifying
the Sharifs, said that after a positive outcome to that review
Shahbaz Sharif would be reinstated as Chief Minister Punjab,
and agreed to a conference to discuss restoring the judiciary.
In return, Nawaz should delay the lawyers' march.
7. (C) Nawaz reportedly agreed but then changed his mind and
demanded reversal of the court decision, an end to governor's
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rule in Punjab and reinstatement of the former Chief Justice.
Under pressure, Nawaz relented and agreed to the judicial
conference idea but offered only to ask the lawyers to
consider postponing the march, and said all this had to be
accomplished in a day. Asfundyar noted that it was impossible
to demand a immediate review of a Court decision that had not
been formally issued. He told Nawaz that he would win the next
election and should just be patient by pressing now, he
threatened a political vacuum that would be filled by the
Army. This time, warned Asfundyar, Nawaz might not be sent
into a comfortable exile. Nawaz refused to budge.
8. (C) Asfundyar said that Zardari was surrounded by advisors
who were not politicians, so he was not being encouraged to
compromise Nawaz's chief advisor was Chaudhry Nisar who, with
the Sharif brothers disqualified, stood the best chance of
being the next PML-N Prime Minister. Nawaz had provoked the
Court by launching a campaign over the doctored exam scores of
the Chief Justice's daughter, and this had prompted the ruling
against Shahbaz. Asfundyar attributed the crisis 70 percent to
Nawaz and 30 percent to Zardari. In Asfundyar's view, therewas an absence of trust on both sides, and what was needed was
a cease-fire in which to conduct reasonable negotiations. If
the march fizzled, there could be time to work out a
compromise if the march sparked violence, there was "nothing
to do but pray."
9. (C) Asfundyar welcomed the idea of UK mediation but said it
was the U.S. view that counted most. He also urged that we
contact the UAE to pressure Zardari and the Saudis to pressure
Nawaz to back off. ANP had seen PML-N members distributing
cash envelopes to a stream of supporters this week like
Zardari, Asfundyar said he believed the money was coming from
the Saudis. Asfundyar was open to continue mediating if asked.
He reminded Ambassador that Zardari had offered him the job of
Prime Minister immediately after the February 2008 elections.
10. (C) In a separate meeting with Ambassador and Polcouns, UK
High Commissioner Brinkley said he had received approval to
approach the various sides, discern their bottom lines, and
report back to London. HMG had not yet decided whether to take
on any role of mediator or guarantor. The UK planned to make a
public statement today urging the parties to resolve their
differences democratically and eschew violence. Brinkley wasscheduled to see PM Gilani and possibly Zardari and Shahbaz
Sharif on March 11, and Chief of Army Staff General Kayani and
Asfundyar Wali Khan on March 12.
11. (C) Late on March 11, the PML confirmed press reports that
the PPP had reversed course (Ref B) and now had offered
Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain the post of leader of the Senate if
PML agreed to join PPP in a coalition government in Punjab.
Shujaat will meet PM Gilani later March 11 on March 12, the
newly constituted Senate would vote on a party leader. If the
deal goes through, it would end governor's rule in Punjab but
it is unclear if a PPP-led government will reduce tensions. It
remains unclear, however, if Shujaat can hold on to his 28-35
member "forward block" of Nawaz supporters to seal this deal.
Without the PML forward block, the PPP cannot form a
government.
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Confrontation
-------------
12. (C) In a March 11 meeting with Ambassador and Polcouns,
Interior Minister Malik described his efforts to mediate with
the lawyers to convince them to hold a peaceful march outside
of Islamabad, but he said the lawyers so far have spurned the
GOP's proposals. Malik plans to block roads into Islamabad
ISLAMABAD 00000516 003 OF 004
beginning March 13. Ambassador warned that efforts to arrest
the Sharifs or high-profile activists like Aitzaz Ahsan would
not be well received in Washington or elsewhere. Malik denied
he had any intention of arresting the Sharifs or Aitzaz but
qualified this by saying "unless they do not stop, but I will
tell you first. I have to maintain law and order." He said he
might have to arrest Imran Khan and some JI activists. (Note:
On March 10, Punjab police began arresting 200-250 JI student
activists and low-level PML-N workers. Mission contacts report
many activists already are going underground. Neither the
Sharifs nor Aitzaz Ahsan have been arrested. Geo TV News,
which the GOP has criticized for being anti-government,
disappeared from cable TV. See septel for updates.)
13. (C) Malik said he had received serious threat information
regarding a Mumbai style attack in Karachi on March 13-14 by
the Jandallah group that previously had attacked the U.S.
Consulate. There were also reports of a proposed targeted
killing, against whom was unclear. JI leaders were giving
their students "black coats" so they could look like lawyers
and already were infiltrating Islamabad. Malik expected crowds
of at least 4,000-5,000 in the capital, even with road
closures.
14. (S) In four conversations with Ambassador this week, Chief
of Army Staff (COAS) General Kayani hinted that, however
reluctantly, he might have to urge Zardari to resign, if
conditions deteriorate. He did not offer any red lines. Kayani
indicated that Asfundyar Wali Khan or someone else broadly
acceptable might be an appropriate replacement for Zardari. We
do not believe Army action is imminent, but we do believe
Kayani was laying down a marker that, if he had to intervene,
the U.S. had been forewarned and given many opportunities to
avoid intervention by pressuring both Nawaz and Zardari.
Kayani made it clear that regardless of how much he disliked
Zardari, he distrusted Nawaz even more. The scenario Kayani
hinted at was one in which he would pressure Zardari to resign
(and presumably leave the country). This would not be an
official Army "coup" it would leave the PPP government led by
Prime Minister Gilani in place and preclude the need for
elections that likely would bring Nawaz to power.
15. (S) Kayani hinted at disquiet among his corps commanders
who believe Zardari is corrupt and has not been paying enough
attention to Pakistan's economic and security challenges. ISIDG Pasha highlighted to Ambassador his concerns about
Zardari's alleged corruption on the flight to the U.S. for the
strategic review, and we have multiple sources demonstrating
Army complaints about Zardari. Kayani believes the U.S. has
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the most influence over Zardari, and he knows we are
Pakistan's most important ally, especially for increasing the
capacity of the Pakistani Army. Kayani told Ambassador he has
talked directly to Zardari, but he does not appear to have
conveyed the seriousness of Army concerns about Zardari or the
security situation vis a vis the march. (Note: Kayani may be
seeking to avoid a confrontation that would prompt Zardari to
make a disastrous decision to try and oust the COAS.)
A Fizzle
--------
16. (C) At this point, everything appears to rest on the
outcome of the lawyers' march. PML-N does not have a proven
reputation for putting demonstrators on the streets, although
JI does. By applying the road closure/detention tactics that
worked for Musharraf in 2007 to stop pro-Nawaz demonstrations,
the government might be able to avoid a serious clash this
time. But if a policeman fires into the crowd or a terrorist
attacks protesters, all bets are off.
17. (C) There is also the likelihood that the march will not
occur as scheduled. Blocked from Islamabad, there could be
multiple flash points in the Punjab, early demonstrations in
Islamabad, and a series of confrontations with the police.
This could be a protracted clash of wills.
18. (C) Comment: Two weeks ago, Zardari was staring victory in
the face after negotiating a PPP win in Senate elections,
setting Nawaz up for an entirely legal
ISLAMABAD 00000516 004 OF 004
disqualification, and looking toward successful Friends and
Donors meetings that would provide the financial support
needed to bolster his sagging popularity. By over-reaching to
make a grab for Punjab without doing his homework on vote
counting in Punjab, Zardari now needs to compromise with the
Sharifs and might well be looking over his shoulder at the
Army. Even if the march fizzles, Nawaz retains the high moral
ground in the public's eyes and will use it to continue
attacking a weakened Zardari. Zardari needs to win back the
military's confidence.
PATTERSON
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