Sustainable Economies, Without Growth
A Degrowth research agenda
Giorgos Kallis, ICREA Professor, ICTA-UAB
ERG Colloquium March 13, 2013
This presentation
• Part I: Growth is not the answer1. The un-sustainability of growth.2. The end of growth ?
• Part II: Economies without growth3. Why are we growth addicted?4. Institutions for Economies without growth.5. Exiting the economy.6. The politics of transition.
• Conclusion
My perspective: Ecological (macro)economics
• Inter- and pluri-disciplinary.
• Energy and the environment matter in economic growth.
This presentation
• Part I: Growth is not the answer1. The un-sustainability of growth.2. The end of growth ?
• Part II: Economies without growth3. Why are we growth addicted?4. Institutions for Economies without growth.5. Exiting the economy.6. The politics of transition.
• Conclusion
We cannot both grow and avoid climate change
19802007
20500
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
World carbon intensity in CO2-eq/$ (data from Jackson, 2008)
ActualConvergence scenarioBusiness as usual scenario
Jevons’ paradox: we consume more because we become more efficient
Bet on a carbon revolution or a precautionary downscaling instead?
• 37 years till 2050, compared to 125 years for the industrial revolution.
• Productivity improved because of using more energy, not less.
Growth damages communities at the world’s commodity frontiers
• Growing social metabolism destroys ecosystems and indigenous cultures at commodity frontiers.
• Local communities in conflict with States and corporations.
www.ejolt.orgMartinez-Alier. J., Kallis, G. et al, 2010.
Social metabolism, ecological distribution conflicts and valuation languages,
Ecological Economics
Growth does not increase well-being in the long-term.
• Life satisfaction decreases with contractions and increases with expansions, but in the long-term it stays the same.
From Easterlin, R., et al, 2010. The Happiness-income paradox revisited, PNAS
Growth cannot not satisfy the desire for positional goods
• Positional goods are inherently socially scarce.
• Inferior access to positional goods leads to economic insecurity and poverty.
• Poverty in wealthy countries cannot be cured by growth, only by redistribution.
This presentation
• Part I: Growth is not the answer1. The un-sustainability of growth.2. The end of growth ?
• Part II: Economies without growth3. Why are we growth addicted?4. Institutions for Economies without growth.5. Exiting the economy.6. The politics of transition.
• Conclusion
Growth in the West has slowed down
Source of data: World Bank
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
US (% growth change)
EU (% growth change)
Linear (EU (% growth change))
High oil prices preceded the crisisCrude Oil Prices and U.S. GDP growth
(graph from IbisWorld)
Peak-oil?
The end of cheap net energy
• Diminishing energy returns to energy investment (EROI) for new sources.
The limits of innovation• Urbanization, mass education
and the entry of women into the labor force were one-off processes. They now have marginal returns.
• The internet paradox: where is the growth from the internet?
• It is energy productivity innovations that matter, communication alone is not enough.
Limits to to growing capital
• 0.15 trillion $ looking for investment in 1950, 0.42 trillion in 1973, 1.6 trillion $ in 2010 and 3 trillions by 2030.
• Inequality exacerbates over-accumulation.
• Capital over-accumulation is a source of instability and booms and busts.
This presentation
• Part I: Growth is not the answer1. The un-sustainability of growth.2. The end of growth ?
• Part II: Economies without growth3. Why are we growth addicted?4. Institutions for Economies without growth.5. Exiting the economy.6. The politics of transition.
• Conclusion
Why are we growth addicted?
• Growth as ideology and quasi religion.
Latouche, S., 2010. Farewell to Growth.
Norgaard, R., 2010. The environmental case for a collective assessment of economism.
Negative growth can have dramatic consequences
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Greece GDP growth rate(%)
Greece Unem-ployment rate (%)
Source of data: CIA World Factbook
Negative growth does not have to be socially catastrophic
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Japan GDP growth rate(%)
Linear (Japan GDP growth rate(%))
Japan Unemployment rate (%)
Linear (Japan Un-employment rate (%))
Source: CIA World Factbook
Why Greece, and not Japan?
This presentation
• Part I: Growth is not the answer1. The un-sustainability of growth.2. The end of growth ?
• Part II: Economies without growth3. Why are we growth addicted?4. Institutions for Economies without growth.5. Exiting the economy.6. The politics of transition.
• Conclusion
Money without growth
• Community currencies– Time banks.– HOUR currencies.– Parallel currencies.– LETS
• Monetary reforms– 100% reserve
requirements.– Public money.
Social security without growth
• A single, guaranteed-for-life, entitlement transfer.
• Financed by an energy tax.
• Incentives to work maintained.
Employment without growth
• Short-term employment boost from reduced working hours.
• Productivity gains translated to liberated time, not capital accumulation.
• Environmental benefits depend on complementary policies.
This presentation
• Part I: Growth is not the answer1. The un-sustainability of growth.2. The end of growth ?
• Part II: Economies without growth3. Why are we growth addicted?4. Institutions for Economies without growth.5. Exiting the economy.6. The politics of transition.
• Conclusion
Local economies without wage-labour
• Proliferating culture of voluntary and forced “nowtopians”.
• Expanding cultures of cooperating and sharing in Europe as a result of the crisis.
Why do young people move to the countryside?
• New forms of living in the countryside (neo-rural experiences).
• Politicized moves and “life projects”, not mere life-style changes.
This presentation
• Part I: Growth is not the answer1. The un-sustainability of growth.2. The end of growth ?
• Part II: Economies without growth3. Why are we growth addicted?4. Institutions for Economies without growth.5. Exiting the economy.6. The politics of transition.
• Conclusion
How and by whom?
• The prefigurative politics of the Occupy Movement and their relation to degrowth ideals.
• The institutionalization of degrowth objectives in Ecuador.
• Conservative variants of degrowth.
This presentation
• Part I: Growth is not the answer1. The un-sustainability of growth.2. The end of growth ?
• Part II: Economies without growth3. Why are we growth addicted?4. Institutions for Economies without growth.5. Exiting the economy.6. The politics of transition.
• Conclusion
My messages
1. Economic growth is unsustainable; environmentally, socially and economically.
2. Time to ask new questions and think outside the box of growth.
Thank you!
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