Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation

Community Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Measuring and mapping vulnerability• Combined indicators

• Risk/stress mapping• Spatial intersection/interaction

• Examining adaptation strategies• Contingent behavior

Vulnerability: Existing Studies

• Agreement on idea but variety of frameworks• Common approach• Aggregate measure (at community level)• A bundle of indicators (Cutter Model)• Demographic, economic, ethnic, political, cultural etc.• Common analysis tools:

• Factor extraction, cluster analysis etc.

Vulnerability and Intervention Mapping:ESDA Approach

• Measurement is not enough• Its about understanding

• Where are the ‘hotspots’?• Are we serving the communities in need?• Where should we prioritize our efforts first?

Spatial non-stationarity: VPM modelWUI vs. rural (affluent vs. poor)

Issues with existing measures

• Too general:• Vulnerable to what?• Weather station record vs. perceived effect

• Assumption of homogenous effect:• Does poverty always necessarily translate to vulnerability?• Do income and ethnicity have the same marginal effect?

• Can not establish causation:• little policy implication• Poor predictive power

• Unit issue:• Areal unit (neighborhood) vs. social unit (i.e., fishermen)

Need for a specific/robust function of vulnerability

• Specific (to hazard in context):• Vulnerability (drought, heat etc.)• DDs vs. avg. temp.

• Weighted (for vulnerability factors):• Lit. review (significance, effect size etc.)

V = f(p1.X1+p2.X2+p3.X3+….pn.Xn)

• Comprehensive yet flexible:• Intervention variable

Example case• Broad context: Climate change• Specific context: vulnerability to heat effect• Heat waves, illness, death tolls• Socio-income factors• Resources (AC, housing condition etc.)• Intervention variables (i.e., neighborhood canopy coverage)

• Policy question:• Will an investment in urban/community forestry programs result in

reducing the vulnerability?• Could a roadside plantation bring a larger benefit than subsidy for

AC installation?

Vulnerability and Adaptation:survey based approach

• Change in resource condition• Knowledge, perception• Contingent behavior

• IVI• How important?• Vulnerable?• Impacted yet?

Highly important

Not at all important

Highly vulnerableNot at all vulnerable

Not at all affected

Slightly affected

Example context: Heat effect

Highly important

Not at all important

Highly vulnerableNot at all vulnerable

Slightly affected

Highly affected

Example context: Trout decline due to stream temp.

Assessing adaptation• How will people adapt to change• List of potential reactions/strategies• Decision tree• Contingent reaction

• Probability • Contingent impact

Trout decline in GA site

Continue fishing here Move to other places

Stop fishingContinue fishing

Fish for trout Fish for non-trout Other places in GA Out of state (TN, NC, SC)

For Trout For non-trout

Move to headwater Wait until water gets cooler

Skip warmer months (July, Aug.)

Make fewer trips

HuntingHikingBikingBird/nature viewingATVOutdoor team sportsGolfTarget shootingCanoeing/KayakingMotor boatingCamping

Understanding Adaptation:Contingent Behavior Approach

Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation