UKL Replacement UKL Replacement Scenario ConsiderationScenario Consideration

22nd November 200622nd November 2006

Possible Scenario - AMR

Action to consider scenarios – varied market penetration of AMR

Example scenario Assume all NDM monthly read meters have AMR Each daily read is sent to the GT No other process changes – e.g. continue to balance on NDM

allocations, reconciliation as-is

Practical implications

Currently approx. 1.6 million reads per annum for monthly read NDM

Potential change could result in 55 million reads per annum

4.8million reconciliations per month (compared to c200,000 now)

Each read Converted to volume Used for NDM Reconciliation (low value) A potential USRV or query Stored

AMR scenario would clearly impose significant additional costs, but we have not estimated this speculative scenario

Outcome

Considered to be an unlikely scenario – no business driver or apparent benefit

Previous regime changes had overriding purpose: RGMA – metering competition RGTA – market signals RbD – efficiency with domestic competition

Other scenarios could include: Half-hourly reads – CA model. How might this affect transporters? An

increased order of magnitude Change that removes the need to store and manipulate data as at

present? Potential decrease

Conclusions

Consensus that the world will look different in 10 years, but.. No scenarios identified that would warrant amended PCR

submission Future dialogue may surface specific requirements Desirable to have a mechanism to meet requirements