Applied Market Intelligence
Trends in Consumer and Automotive MEMS SensorsRichard Dixon Senior Analyst MEMS, iSuppliApril [email protected]
iSuppli Corporation – 2 Copyright © 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Agenda
Overview of MEMS market recovery
New market driver: Consumer MEMS
Automotive market recovers in 2010
Impact of mandates in EU & US: ESC and TPMS
iSuppli Corporation – 3 Copyright © 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Agenda
Overview of MEMS market recovery
New market driver: Consumer MEMS
Automotive market recovers in 2010
Impact of mandates in EU & US: ESC and TPMS
iSuppli Corporation – 4 Copyright © 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
MEMS includes many sensors & actuators, applications
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
Other emerging MEMS
Thermopiles
Flow sensors
Optical MEMS for telecom
MEMS sw itches
Microfluidic chips
RF MEMS oscillators
MEMS microphones
Microbolometers
BAW filters
Optical MEMS for displays
MEMS w afer probes
Gyroscopes
Pressure sensors
Inkjet printheads
Accelerometers
Source – iSuppli Corporation MEMS market tracker, H2 2009
- 4.8% - 8.6%
CAGR 2009-2013: +12.2%
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From 3 big segments in 2009 to 4 in 2013
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
Wired Communications
Aerospace, Defense, Security
Medical Electronics
Industry and Process Control
Data Processing
Automotive
Mobile and Consumer Electronics
Note: emerging MEMS categories not counted in this breakout ($163 M in 2013 up from $19M in 2009)
Source – iSuppli Corporation MEMS market tracker, H2 2009
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Agenda
Overview of MEMS market recovery
New market driver: Consumer MEMS
Automotive market recovers in 2010
Impact of mandates in EU & US: ESC and TPMS
iSuppli Corporation – 7 Copyright © 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Consumer market confirm their status as the new locomotive of MEMS markets!!
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CE and mobile MEMS bulldozed their way through the crisis
Accelerometers for cell phonesMulti-axis silicon gyroscopes for gaming and cell phonesPico-projectorsBAW filters
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Milli
ons
of U
S$
ThermopilesAF and Zoom actuatorsMicro speakersMicro-fuel cellsRF MEMS sw itches & capacitorsPressure sensorsMEMS oscillatorsDisplaysMicrophonesBAW filtersGyroscopesAccelerometers
Source – iSuppli Corporation Television Systems Market Tracker
Microphones stagnate in 2009Accelerometer saturating in gamingNo killer app for pressure sensors
Source – iSuppli Corporation Consumer and Mobile MEMS market tracker, H2 2009
CAGR = 18%
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Every 4th phone with an accelerometer in 2009
Penetration of accelerometers in Mobile Handsets
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bottom-up: 354 million accelerometers shipped for cell phones in 2009
Up from 146 million in 2008
Reported shipment from ST, Bosch, Kionix, Freescale
Estimate shipment from ADI, Memsic and Hokuriku
Top down46% of models introduced by Nokia with accelerometer in 2009
76% at Sony Ericsson!
Chinese market feeds growth80-90 million accelerometers shipped to China
Significant impact of the Gray Handset market in 2009
Price erodes fast: -34% in 2009!Source – iSuppli Corporation Motion Sensors in Mobile Handset report, H2 2010
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iPod nano saves the MEMS microphone market in 2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
MEMS microphone market 2006-2013
Market up by modest 3% in revenue.
Mobile phone market shrunk. This is caused by Motorola’s freefall in the mobile handset space, in addition to overall 12% lower shipments for cell phones this year.
Back to significant growth in 2010. Over a billion units in 2013!!
CAGR in revenue 2008-2013: 18%
Source – iSuppli Corporation MEMS microphone market report, Dec. 2009
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Motorola’s freefall impacts MEMS microphone market
Source – iSuppli Corporation Mobile Handset Market Shares
Source – iSuppli Corporation MEMS microphone market report, Sept. 2009
Market share of top 5 cell phone manufacturers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2006 2007 2008 Q1-09 Q2-09
NokiaSamsungLG ElectronicsMotorolaSony Ericsson
MEMS microphone estimated consumption at top 5 Cell Phone manufacturers
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ions
of U
nits
OthersSony EricssonMotorolaLG ElectronicsSamsungNokia
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Agenda
Overview of MEMS market recovery
New market driver: Consumer MEMS
Automotive market recovers in 2010
Impact of mandates in EU & US: ESC and TPMS
iSuppli Corporation – 13 Copyright © 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Over 30 MEMS sensors in high end cars today
ECU airbag, sound sensor, Electronic parking Brake, Electronic Stability Control, roll detection anti-theft, ABS lateral acceleration
Electronic Stability ControlRoll detection, built-in navigation
Fuel tank vapor, float level
Mass air flowCommon fuel railMAP / BAP / turboOil pressure, oil levelDiesel particle filter
Active suspension and chassis height Suspension & strut position
Passenger / occupation detection
Tire pressure monitoring / wheel speed
Cabin temperatureCO2 sensing, HVAC
Night vision
Column lock, steering-wheel angle, torque, electronic power assisted steering
Accelerator pedal angular position, brake by wire
Seat belt buckle, transmission gear position, selection, gear i/o shaft speed
Ignition system crankshaft / camshaft angle, engine speed
Satellite airbag, electric windows, wiper motor, blowers…
Door- / trunk-latch Seat-track position
Sunroof position
electric motor control fan
AccelerometerGyroscopePressure sensorFlow sensorInfrared sensorSound sensorMagnetic sensorMagnetic switch
MEMS
Source – iSuppli Corporation Automotive MEMS Market Tracker, H2 2009
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Automotive MEMS back to double digit growth in 2010
-19% in 2009 12% growth 2009-14
Multiple sensors/car (8)
Market driven by mandates
Price erosion
Sensor fusion calls for multi-sensor solutions
Size issueCost reduction
Supplier’s landscape is being re-shaped
MandatesMulti-sensor solutionsLow-cost from CEVacuum left by bankrupt companies
Impact of electric cars?0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Milli
ons
of U
S$
OthersFlowMicrobolometersGyroscopeAccelerometerPressure
Source – iSuppli Corporation Automotive MEMS Market Tracker, H2 2009
2009-2014 = 12%
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What happened to the supply chain in 2009?
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0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
Jul 0
8Sep
08Nov 0
8Ja
n 09
Mar 09
May
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09Nov 0
9Ja
n 10
US
Car P
rodu
ctio
n (M
)
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4,5
5
US
Sale
s / I
nven
tory
Rat
io (m
onth
s)
U.S. car production US Sales / inventory ratio
U.S. showed automotive sales-to-inventory level had swollen from historical run rate of 2,5 months to 4 months due to lack of car sales
OEMs stop buying sensor components and use what they had on shelves
Due to continued slow sales this inventory level bottomed at 1.5 months and required restocking quickly as vehicle demand resumed
Inventory increases with drop in car production
Inventory dries up as car production takes off fast
Source: iSuppli H1 2010 Automotive MEMS Tracker
Data courtesy: US Department of Commerce
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What was the implication, e.g. for pressure sensors?
Supply Chain Inventory Dynamics
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Aug
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Jul 0
9
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Pres
sure
Sen
sor S
hipm
ents
(M)*
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0,5
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1,5
2
2,5
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3,5
4
4,5
5
Tier
1 S
ales
to In
vent
ory
Ratio
(Mon
ths)
Pressure Sensors US Sales / inventory ratio
Sensor makers hit hard as the tier 1s burned inventoryHuge ordering spree to replenish stocks starting in mid-2009
Pressure sensor shipments triple, show no signs of slowing yet!Multiple sensors per car (engine management, TPMS, side airbags, ESC…..)
Shipments should stabilize in first half of 2010 to avoid a “bubble” in H2
Data courtesy: WSTS Sensors and Actuators, US Department of Commerce
Inventory level before crisis
Sensor shipments fall with increase in inventory
Sensor shipments grow fast with decrease in inventory
Source: iSuppli H1 2010 Automotive MEMS Tracker
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0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Se
nso
r M
ark
et,
M$
North America Europe Rest of World China Japan
Market by region
Source: iSuppli H1 2010 Automotive MEMS Tracker
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The importance of China
Fastest growing region for sensors: CAGR 19% from 2009 to 2014
Ahead of Japan in 2014
Bright spot for suppliers, helped soften blow in 2009 Mostly due to high car sales and reasonable equipment rates
Sales up 48% over 2008 (iSuppli China Research Group)
Currently third behind North America and Europe, which are being driven by mandates
Chinese cars with several airbagsESC in the luxury segment
Bosch (and local JV United Automotive Electronic Systems) leading position in engine management sensors
China extending subsidies to encourage buying of cleaner cars in 2010More sensors in powertrain, e.g. MAP, position sensors in crank…2
3
4
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
pe
r V
eh
icle
Europe North America Japan China RoW
Source: iSuppli H1 2010 Automotive MEMS Tracker
iSuppli Corporation – 19 Copyright © 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Agenda
Overview of MEMS market recovery
New market driver: Consumer MEMS
Automotive market recovers in 2010
Impact of mandates in EU & US: ESC and TPMS
iSuppli Corporation – 20 Copyright © 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Combination Package Sensors: Market and Supply Chain
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sh
ipm
en
ts,
Mill
ion
s
ESC, as part of "combi" sensor ESC, as part of inertial cluster
Start in 2010 with low penetration, but grows to over 50% in 2014
ESC mandates (US/EU) are driving price of system components down Obvious savings with packages, etc Simple inertial clusters with a gyroscope and 2 axis accelerometer in separate packages will co-exist in market, for low cost platforms
Supply chain Continental with VTI sensors, Bosch with Bosch (> 70% market share) Denso develops combo using its own accelerometers and gyroscope (due in 2010) Freescale targets ESC combination sensors in 2012Could relegate some suppliers to ESC systems without multi-sensor packages
Panasonic, ADI…. Supply chain becomes more dynamic
Autoliv attacks market with ESC market with inertial sensors in airbags
Analog Devices (gyroscope) and MEMSIC (accelerometer)
Source: iSuppli H1 2010 Automotive MEMS Tracker
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ESC “combination” sensors close up
Sensor cluster SC06.2, SOP Year: 2009
Board space for inertial sensors: 234 mm2
Sensor cluster SC03, SOP Year: 2003
Board space for inertial sensors: 1308 mm2
VTI accelerometer + gyro cluster
VTI accelerometer
Systron Donner (BEI) gyroscope
Simple inertial cluster2 packages, 2 ASICs, 2 sensors = 6 components
Combination sensorFrom 6 down to 4 components$0.20 saved on package if plastic, more if ceramicShared ASIC, save on silicon area, and gyro ASIC is expensive
Integration and space savingUp to 5X less real estateYield issue offsets major cost savings = about 5-10% reduction
Ultimate step monolithic integration1 package, 1 ASIC, 1 sensor Yield issues, not before 2014
Courtesy of Continental 2009
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ESC system suppliers strategies for ESC (iSuppli)
Suppliers of sensors
Mainstream developed markets, also with export focus (EU, US, Japan, Korea…) follow current integration route
• Brake ECU
• Body ECU / Airbag system ECU
• combined with ACC, etc (ADAS)
• complex, high algorithm content
Developing markets with domestic focus like China, India, Russia…buy inertial sensor clusters and integrate into cheap “box” with own electronics + algorithms
• Brake ECU
• Not for export
• simple, low cost, lower algorithm content
Approach 1: inertial cluster
Approach 2: multi-sensor package (“combi” sensor)
iSuppli
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Background to TPMS
Since 1998 at Porsche
Two-fold motivation:Safety
Fuel savings
Long presented as the new “El Dorado” of automotive MEMS
US mandate in 2007
EU mandate from 2012
Direct system largely dominates100% of US in 2007
Over 10 companies in R&D in 2006 TPMS system, Schrader
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Why is TPMS such a hot debate today?
Direct systems Direct systems bring best performance. Use MEMS pressure sensors
Indirect systems Indirect is potentially much cheaper. Use wheel speed sensors from ABS + algorithm
But cannot make instant measurements, driver is responsible for calibrating system
March 2010 UN economic Commission on Europe (UNECE) specs indicate direct pressure TPMS will win
In European market, TPMS must detect 20% drop in pressure in any of 4 tires in maximum 60 minute interval, within tolerance of +7 kPa
In US, systems warn driver within 20 minutes of a drop of pressure of 20%.
7 kPa tolerance very tough for indirect systems as they stand todaySecond set of more stringent criteria will be agreed and phased in for Europe market in 2015, making it tougher for indirect systems
Wounded animal syndrome: indirect will probably come with better designsToday only one company really pushing (Nira Dynamics/Audi)
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Market impact of European TPMS mandate
Proportion of cars with TPMS grows from 17% in 2009 to 33% in 2014 Exception Audi A6 already in U.S. market, some high end models like BMW using Nira D. system
Big market driver for sensors 4.2 MEMS pressure sensors per car on averageUS and EU drive market. low penetration elsewhere, even Japan
Low cost inaccurate indirect systems Not all cars with ABS (15% without)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sh
ipm
en
ts,
Mill
ion
s
Japan
China
Rest of World
Europe
North America
Source: iSuppli H1 2010 Automotive MEMS Tracker
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Conclusions
MEMS sensors and actuators market experience first downturn in 2009
Market down 9% in 2009
Growing at 12% starting 2010
Consumer electronics and mobile devices new market locomotive
Automotive disaster in 2009 Exception China
Recovery in 201012% from 2009 to 2014
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Thank you
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MEMS at iSuppli
3 trackers, updated every 6 monthsGeneral MEMSAutomotive MEMSConsumer & Mobile Phones
Topical reports updated every yearMEMS for Automotive ESCInertial MEMS and magnetic sensors for mobile phonesMagnetic sensor marketMEMS microphone marketMEMS switches (2010)MEMS oscillators (2010)
MEMS Competitive Analysis (yearly)Monthly MEMS Market brief
Custom projects: strategy, competitive analysis, tailored market research
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