Traffic model for the Bonn Agreement Area
BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden
Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument
BackgroundTask H Traffic Analysis
Overall objective:• To develop a model that describes the traffic in the area• This is later applied with the cargo model to simulate
accidents and consequences– Accident type– Location– Spill size– Spill substance
Basis:• AIS data• IHS Fairplay (representative ships)
Traffic Analysis
BackgroundProcess
• AIS data• Definition of route net• Idealised traffic
Obstacles to be treated• Areas with no/low AIS coverage or missing data
– Middle of North Sea– German Bight– Other fallouts
Future traffic
Traffic Analysis
BackgroundProject area and sub regions:
1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel
Traffic Analysis
AIS basis- Period 2011- The true traffic- Local differences
Traffic Analysis
• • • ••
•• • Dlatt•
••
• ••
Dlong
AIS basis- Clear routes are used
- TSS- Reefs/shallow water- Vessels take the shortest journey
Traffic Analysis
AIS basis - Various vessel types
Traffic Analysis
No offshore or fishing Only offshore
Route Net• 10000 routes
Traffic Analysis
Idealised traffic
Traffic Analysis
54
55
10.5 12.5
54
55
56
57
58
7 9 11 13
Idealised trafficFor every route-Representative vessels using route-Mean value-Standard deviation
Traffic Analysis
Idealised trafficWhat do we want do capture:•Actual movement of vessels•Harbour to harbour combinations
Traffic Analysis
Areas with low coverageNorth sea and German BightGeneral approchClosure of gaps of up to 36 hours except vessels at the area around Kiel Canal
Closure of all <23 hours gaps
Manuel correction of the number of vessels on the routes in the German Bight based on Accseas project traffic.
Traffic Analysis
Areas with low coverageProcedureThe individual vessel is followedRoutes are closed by algorithm finding the shortest pathRoutes begins and ends at harbours
Traffic Analysis
Idealised trafficWhat do we have in our traffic model:•Actual movement of vessels•Harbour to harbour combinations
For every route:-Vessel information
- Type- Size- Distribution
-From/to port
Traffic Analysis
Idealised trafficHow do we apply this later:
Traffic Analysis
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Traffic model Cargo model
Route Net 2020Changes caused by:•Windfarms
•New TSS
Traffic Analysis
Route Net 2020Changes caused by:•Windfarms•New TSS
Traffic Analysis
Idealised traffic 2020Process• Make new route net• Identify ships affected• Identify alternative route
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Future traffic changes• Changes in the size of vessels• Changes in the number of voyages
Traffic Analysis
Idealised traffic 2020• Routes affected by wind parks• New TSS routes implemented• New tracks have been found for all
vessels affected• Prognosis implemented by adjusting
2011 traffic.
Traffic Analysis
Methodology
Summary and conclusion• Traffic based on current situation 2011• Best estimate of future traffic based on
adjusted tracks, sizes, voyages of vessels• Port-to-port cargo model a challenge – but
possible• Connected with the other models
(Cargo/Pilotage/other RRM)• Input for the accident model
Questions?
Thank you
beaware.bonnagreement.org
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