Tinus Pulles
How to establish the uncertainties?
Particulate Emission Inventory for Europe
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Outline
• Background• Methods
• Inventory methods• Uncertainty estimation
• The inventory• Uncertainties • Conclusions
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Background: Objective
• This presentation uses data from a project performed for DG Environment to support EU Member States in developing a PM2.5 inventory
• Quality requirements:• Transparency means that the assumptions and methodologies used
for the inventory should be clearly explained • Comparability means that estimates of emissions should be
comparable among Member States• Completeness means that an inventory covers all sources • Accuracy is a relative measure of the exactness of an emission or
removal estimate
• Partners in the project where: • TNO (NL, lead),• AEA-T (UK) • IVL (SE)
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Inventory approach
• Act_ID• Sector• Location• Time• Value
Activities
• Tech_IDTechnologies
• EF_ID• Tech_ID• Pollutant• Value
Emission factors
• S_T_ID• Act_ID• Tech_ID• fraction
Select_Tech
TFEIP
Guidebook PM2.5 update
TEAMTNO Emissions Assessment Model
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Data sourcesEmission Factors from CEPMEIP: power plants
Sum of EF PollutantCRF/NFRCode FuelName Technology EF_Unit PM2.5 PM10 TSP1.A.1.a Heavy Fuel Oil Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat
plants: Low S-fuel with optimized burner or ESPg/GJ 27.5 33 33
Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat plants: Low-medium S-fuel, conventional installation
g/GJ 108 180 240
Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat plants: Medium S-fuel, conventional installation
g/GJ 120 240 480
Lignite/Brown Coal Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat plants: Conventional ESP (removal efficiency around 98%)
g/GJ 180 720 1440
Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat plants: Efficient 3 or 4-field ESP only (removal efficiency about 99.5%)
g/GJ 70 150 200
Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat plants: FGD or fabric filter; <20 mg/Nm3 stack PM concentration; BAT
g/GJ 24 32 36
Natural Gas Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat plants: Burner with optimized combustion
g/GJ 0.9 0.9 0.9
Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat plants: Conventional installation
g/GJ 4.2 4.2 4.2
Other Bituminous Coal & Anthracite
Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat plants: Conventional ESP (removal efficiency equal or better than 98%)
g/GJ 68 280 560
Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat plants: Efficient 3 or 4-field ESP only (removal efficiency about 99.5%)
g/GJ 108 225 315
Autoproducer electricity, heat and CHP plants, and public heat plants: FGD or fabric filter; <20 mg/Nm3 stack PM concentration; BAT
g/GJ 50 60 60
Wood and wood waste Public electricity and CHP plants: Uncontrolled conventional g/GJ 880 1120 1600
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Data sourcesEmission Factors from CEPMEIP: technology selected
Power Plants on Other Bituminous Coal & Anthracite
• Per country one technology selected
• Based on the CEPMEIP 1995 inventory
• Country data needed to improve:
• EF measurements?• Technologies used?
Sum of Emission(kTon)
Technology
CRF/NFRCode CountryName
Autoproducer electricity, heat and
CH
P plants, and public heat plants:
Conventional E
SP
(removal
efficiency equal or better than 98%)
Autoproducer electricity, heat and
CH
P plants, and public heat plants:
Efficient 3 or 4-field E
SP
only (rem
oval efficiency about 99.5%)
Autoproducer electricity, heat and
CH
P plants, and public heat plants:
FG
D or fabric filter; <
20 mg/N
m3
stack PM
concentration; BA
T
1.A.1.a Austria 0.19Belgium 1.28Czech Republic 1.37Denmark 0.77Finland 0.43France 3.17Germany 4.52Greece 0.00Ireland 0.78Italy 3.04Netherlands 1.07Poland 15.81Portugal 1.61Slovak Republic 0.52Spain 7.78Sweden 0.07United Kingdom 13.32
Grand Total 17.70 30.98 7.05
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Particulates emitted in EuropeNational totals
• Total emissions in the EU25: 1300 kTon.
• The other countries in this study add about 500 kTon
• Total PM2.5 emissions are about 40% of the PM10 emissions
• Larger countries contribute more to the total emissions than smaller countries.
• Some discrepancies with RAINS estimates
Emission(kTon) PollutantCountryGroup CountryName PM2.5 PM10EU25 Austria 23.92 46.66
Belgium 34.67 65.59Cyprus 1.95 4.46
Czech Republic 35.99 121.55Denmark 16.71 50.79
Estonia 9.48 27.25Finland 21.35 51.16France 228.72 525.60
Germany 161.77 359.90Greece 37.28 88.20
Hungary 26.73 98.41Ireland 12.60 34.16
Italy 140.07 318.11Latvia 15.53 39.38
Lithuania 15.69 53.18Luxembourg 3.77 7.96
Malta 0.68 1.35Netherlands 23.45 48.13
Poland 141.06 454.58Portugal 36.30 78.58
Slovak Republic 12.98 42.09Slovenia 7.78 15.25
Spain 140.13 354.64Sweden 23.44 61.75
United Kingdom 109.53 234.94EU25 Total 1 281.57 3 183.69
CC Bulgaria 37.02 123.38
Romania 86.75 262.85Turkey 281.37 804.87
CC Total 405.14 1 191.10
AC Albania 3.97 12.40
Bosnia-Herzegovina 13.24 45.17Croatia 15.83 41.80
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia&Montenegro) 49.27 174.82Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 6.66 17.17
AC Total 88.98 291.37
EFTA Iceland 0.41 0.88
Norway 13.58 28.41Switzerland 8.02 16.49
EFTA Total 22.01 45.78
Grand Total 1 797.70 4 711.93
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Particulates emitted in EuropeContributions by fuel
• Non-combustion sources contribute• more than half of the PM10
emissions• one third to the PM2.5 emissions.
The very large share to PM10 emissions is due to the inclusion of wind blown dust in agriculture.
• Solid fuels are by far the largest combustion source for PM10, followed by Liquids and Biomass.
• For PM2.5 the largest combustion source is Liquids, followed by Biomass and Solids.
Emission(kTon) FuelGroup SectorGroupName PM2.5 PM10
Solids Combustion in Energy Industry 184 622
Manufacturing Industry 67 167 Non-industrial combustion 23.1 46.2 Mobile sources 0.0568 0.152
Solids Total 274 836
Liquids Combustion in Energy Industry 42.7 63.5
Manufacturing Industry 56.9 75.6 Non-industrial combustion 25.6 27.4 Mobile sources 335 338
Liquids Total 460 504
Gaseous Combustion in Energy Industry 7.16 7.16
Manufacturing Industry 2.58 2.58 Non-industrial combustion 1.47 1.47 Mobile sources 0.038 0.038
Gaseous Total 11.2 11.2
Waste Combustion in Energy Industry 9.85 12.7
Manufacturing Industry 1.93 2.77
Waste Total 11.8 15.4
Biomass Combustion in Energy Industry 15.8 18.5
Manufacturing Industry 0.703 1.03 Non-industrial combustion 383 408
Biomass Total 399 427
None Combustion in Energy Industry 6.14 10.3
Fugitive emissions from Energy 38.6 135
Industrial Processes & Product Use 205 413
Mobile sources 32.8 87.2 Agriculture 356 2270 Waste treatment 3.1 3.1
None Total 641 2920 Grand Total 1800 4710
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Comparison our national totals with national reports
PM2.5 y = 1.1672x
R2 = 0.7931
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1 000.0
National reports
Ou
r es
tim
ate
PM10 y = 0.7068x
R2 = 0.9027
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1 000.0
National reports
Ou
r es
tim
ate
• Horizontally: ETC-ACC gap filled national reported data for 2000• Vertically: our estimate for 2000
• Major differences occur, but generally not too bad…• Are these differences within our uncertainties?
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Uncertainty analysis
• Monte Carlo simulation• Probability Distribution Functions
• Activity data: • normal distributions, • standard deviation 10%
• Emission factors:• Lognormal distributions• Standard deviation based on expert judgement, derived
from the between technology variations in CEPMEIP• For a few sample countries:
• Main sector uncertainties• Compare national report with uncertainty range from Monte
Carlo
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Uncertainties: example for United Kingdom
• Dots: probabiliuty distribution for our estimate
• Red line: UK’s report
• Seems to be all right!
pm2.5 emissions in United Kingdom
0%10%
20%30%
40%50%60%
70%80%
90%100%
- 20
00
0
40
00
0
60
00
0
80
00
0
10
0 0
00
12
0 0
00
14
0 0
00
16
0 0
00
United Kingdom Value 2.5% 97.5% 50.0%Combustion in Energy Industry 24 619 14 778 58 152 26 824 Fugitive emissions from Energy 3 632 1 846 7 182 3 665 Manufacturing Industry 2 680 2 346 3 340 2 779 Non-industrial combustion 6 121 4 378 9 821 6 462 Mobile sources 41 352 37 516 51 542 44 120 Industrial Processes & Product Use 15 200 11 981 23 773 16 124 Agriculture 15 752 11 178 25 488 16 326 Waste treatment 256 44 1 513 256 National Total 109 611 99 945 151 456 119 420
80 115 150 185 220
5% 90% 5% 103.5816 143.4457
Mean=120684
Distribution for pm2.5 emissions in United Kingdom/P10
Va
lue
s in
10
^ -5
Values in Thousands
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
Mean=120684
80 115 150 185 220
Regression Sensitivity for pm2.5 emissions in United Kin...
Std b Coefficients
EF: EURO II - 1996 heavy d.../N276 .064
EF: Conventional refinery;.../N107 .073
EF: EURO I - 1992 heavy du.../N265 .073
EF: Conventional installat.../N73 .074
EF: Conventional stove or .../N116 .093
EF: Conventional installat.../N71 .098
EF: No control - light dut.../N334 .099
EF: All activities: (RAI;.../N13 .111
EF: All countries: (SIE; .../N19 .114
EF: EURO II - 1996 heavy d.../N278 .121
EF: EURO II - 1996 heavy d.../N277 .125
EF: All activities: (UFW;.../N17 .148
EF: Uncontrolled; optimize.../N262 .153
EF: Conventional installat.../N77 .231
EF: No control - Arable la.../N343 .265
EF: Efficient 3 or 4-field.../N129 .707
-1 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1
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Uncertainties: example for Germany
• Dots: probability distribution for our estimate
• Red line: Germany’s report
• Our estimate is significantly higher
pm2.5 emissions in Germany
0%10%
20%30%
40%50%
60%70%
80%90%
100%- 5
0 0
00
10
0 0
00
15
0 0
00
20
0 0
00
25
0 0
00
Germany Value 2.5% 97.5% 50.0%Combustion in Energy Industry 21 268 14 848 38 772 22 945 Fugitive emissions from Energy 5 713 3 260 11 362 6 031 Manufacturing Industry 1 520 1 338 1 831 1 554 Non-industrial combustion 31 369 19 515 55 741 31 675 Mobile sources 54 145 47 642 69 876 57 668 Industrial Processes & Product Use 17 715 13 084 39 376 20 178 Agriculture 29 722 20 564 49 290 30 604 Waste treatment 324 53 1 953 325 National Total 161 773 148 739 212 867 175 663
120 155 190 225 260
5% 90% 5% 152.4633 206.0978
Mean=177070.9
Distribution for pm2.5 emissions in Germany/P10
Val
ues
in 1
0^ -
5
Values in Thousands
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
Mean=177070.9
120 155 190 225 260
Regression Sensitivity for pm2.5 emissions in Germany/P10
Std b Coefficients
EF: FGD or fabric filter; .../N145 .076
EF: No control - heavy dut.../N318 .08
AR: 1.A.4.b; Wood and wood.../W247 .082
EF: Fabric filter, high ef.../N142 .086
EF: All activities: (RAI;.../N13 .099
EF: EURO II - 1996 heavy d.../N277 .113
EF: All countries: (SIE; .../N19 .114
EF: No control - Arable la.../N342 .119
EF: No control - heavy dut.../N321 .14
EF: FGD or fabric filter; .../N144 .151
EF: All activities: (UFW;.../N17 .17
EF: EURO II - 1996 heavy d.../N278 .19
EF: FGD or fabric filter; .../N143 .264
EF: High efficiency ESP or.../N148 .274
EF: No control - Arable la.../N343 .413
EF: Modern emission optimi.../N184 .543
-1 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1
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Comparison for National Total PM2.5 emissions
• For many countries the reported value is within the 95% confidence interval of our estimate
• For quite a few the deviation is larger.
Reported within 95% confidence intervalReported below 95% confidence intervalReported above 95% confidence interval
Country National Total Estimate 2.5 %-ile 97.5 %-ile 50 %-ile ReportedAustria National Total 24 022 20 187 35 288 25 832 25 881 Belgium National Total 34 674 32 950 51 506 38 606 35 241 Denmark National Total 16 763 14 684 23 175 18 170 22 924 Finland National Total 21 458 18 574 30 438 23 284 37 663 France National Total 228 745 193 215 331 830 243 751 341 592 Germany National Total 161 773 148 739 212 867 175 663 115 091 Greece National Total 37 276 32 191 52 443 40 047 48 578 Hungary National Total 26 736 23 077 38 006 28 922 25 720 Ireland National Total 12 604 11 788 16 682 13 816 12 237 Italy National Total 140 141 131 431 198 949 153 812 - Latvia National Total 15 576 11 229 25 265 16 227 10 996 Lithuania National Total 15 753 12 083 23 996 16 638 8 798 Netherlands National Total 23 446 22 421 31 100 25 716 28 806 Norway National Total 13 629 11 893 18 503 14 378 58 416 Poland National Total 114 731 95 572 176 777 125 825 131 459 Portugal National Total 36 311 30 392 59 069 39 479 95 062 Slovak Republic National Total 12 979 11 779 18 334 14 339 26 000 Slovenia National Total 7 780 5 788 12 279 8 263 6 501 Spain National Total 140 132 126 653 184 012 139 481 Sweden National Total 23 561 20 107 34 871 25 379 46 053 United Kingdom National Total 109 611 99 945 151 456 119 420 108 236
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Conclusions
• We have produced an PM2.5 and PM10 emission inventory for Europe (2000)
• The emission estimates in this inventory show considerable uncertainties
• For more than half of the countries the national reported value is within our 95% confidence interval
• We might have underestimated (residential) biomass use
• We did not detect a significant source that might be missed in national reports.
• The PM inventories might be as good as the ones used by Dick Derwent! (Thank you Dick)
• We do not know what we don’t know
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Thank you
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TNO’s TEAM model
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