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4A FRIDAY JUNE 5 2020The Virus Crisis SATURDAY JUNE 6 2020
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Jorge L. Guerra, Jr.2020 Chairman of the Board
MIAMI Association of Realtors
Rise in Pending Sales andMortgage Applications
With stay-at-home orders ending and South Florida slowlyreopening, listings and buying activity has definitelyrebounded. Pent-up demand, historically low mortgage ratesand the robust fundamentals of the South Florida housingmarket is already leading to increased buying activity.
Last week, pended sales, which is the best indicator of closedsales, were the highest of any week in the last six months, anincrease of 146% since mid-April.
Surging pending sales should result in sales increases in thenext couple of months. South Florida Realtors are seeing a risein mortgage applications and additional homebuying interestfrom the Northeast.
The COVID-19 situation has accelerated the trend ofhomebuyers from New York and other tax-burdenedNortheastern states searching and purchasing homes in SouthFlorida.
South Florida ranked No. 2 (behind New York-Newark-JerseyCity) for where New Yorkers moved to escape coronavirus,according to mail-forwarding requests.
Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 9% last weekfrom the previous week and from a year earlier, according tothe Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.It was the sixth straight week of gains and a 54% recoverysince early April.
The gain mirrors an unexpectedly strong sales pace justreported for newly built homes in April. They were forecast tofall 22% but instead rose nearly 1% for the month, according tothe U.S. Census. Buyers are rushing into the new home market,as the supply of existing homes keeps falling to new recordlows.
Before the COVID-19 situation, the Miami-Dade marketwas exceptionally strong. Miami real estate had record lowdelinquencies, no subprime mortgage crisis, strong demand/lowsupply, low interest rates, strong population growth, demandfrom foreign buyers and tax refugees from tax burdened states,high consumer confidence and a strong job market.
Jorge L. Guerra, Jr.Real Estate Sales Force
(305) [email protected]
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the past two weeks and was5.3% on June 3, the healthdepartment reported.
Florida reports new CO-VID-19 cases based on thedate when the health de-partment receives test re-sults. But how many resultsthe department receiveseach day — from state labsand private ones — variesbecause some labs reportwithin one to two days ofprocessing a test whileothers can take a week orlonger to deliver an answer.
On Thursday, for in-stance, the departmentreported receiving 5,247test results for Miami-Dade— more than three timesthe number the agency saidit received for the countyon June 1, which was 1,139test results.
But while the number ofnew cases in Miami-Dadeon June 1 seemed low at 92,the positive rate was 8.1%— the highest percentage ofthe two-week period in-cluded in the health depart-ment’s report.
Two days later, the num-ber of new cases in thecounty spiked to 280, al-most three times what ithad been two days earlier.But the positive rate forMiami-Dade dropped to5.3%, according to thehealth department’s report.
More cases is bad, ofcourse. But the percentageof positive cases is anotherkey indicator experts relyon to determine whether
Over the past two days,as Florida has continued torelax coronavirus restric-tions, the state has reporteda worrying surge in CO-VID-19 cases statewide —with Thursday’s tally of1,419 new infections repre-senting the largest state-wide increase in a singleday since the health depart-ment began providing dailyupdates on the novel coro-navirus in March.
But the number of newcases is only part of thestatewide picture when itcomes to determiningwhether we’re experiencinga second wave of COVID-19infections. While the overallnumber of positive cases hasspiked in the past two days,the percentage of positiveCOVID-19 tests — out of allthe results reported in a day— has declined over thesame time period, as thestate provides testing tomore people.
“As we test more peopleand get more results, thepositivity rate is goingdown,” said Alberto Mosco-so, communications direc-tor for the Florida Depart-ment of Health, whichproduces the daily updates.
The percent of positiveCOVID-19 test resultsstatewide has fluctuatedbetween 4% and 8% over
the pandemic is worsening.“We worry, obviously, if
there’s more cases,” saidMary Jo Trepka an infec-tious disease epidemiol-ogist with Florida Interna-tional University’s StempelCollege of Public Health.“But we’re especially wor-ried if the percentage goesup.”
Trepka said fluctuationsin reporting test results,and the fact that the healthdepartment reports casesbased on the date it re-ceives test results as op-posed to the date of symp-tom onset, make it difficultfor epidemiologists to mea-sure the effect of policychanges, such as Friday’sPhase 2 reopening of barsand movie theaters outsideof South Florida.
“There’s no piece of thedata that gives you thewhole picture,” she said.
For a more completethough still imperfect as-sessment of how Florida isdoing, Trepka said sherecommends looking at atwo-week snapshot of posi-tive test rates and thehealth department’s dataon hospital emergencyroom visits for cough, feveror shortness of breath —symptoms associated withCOVID-19.
“If I see that going up,”she said, “it’s very worri-some.”
MORE NUMBERS
The state Department of
Health announced 41 newdeaths Thursday, raisingthe statewide toll to 2,607.
Less than half of the newcases but more than half ofthe new deaths were inSouth Florida:
A Miami-Dade Countyreported 323 additionalconfirmed cases of CO-VID-19 and 15 new deaths.The county’s confirmedtotal is now at 18,779 caseswith 746 deaths, the high-est in the state.
A Broward County report-ed 123 additional con-firmed cases of COVID-19and seven new deaths. Thecounty’s confirmed total isnow at 7,462 with 325deaths.
A Palm Beach Countysaw 211 additional con-firmed cases of COVID-19and four new deaths. Thecounty’s known total is nowat 6,688 with 363 deaths.
A Monroe County con-firmed one additional caseof COVID-19 and no
deaths. The Florida Keysnow have 110 known casesand four deaths.
Miami Herald staff writ-
ers Michelle Marchante andDevoun Cetoute contributedto this report.
DAVID SANTIAGO [email protected]
A Florida Department of Health worker holds a box with swab tests at the COVID-19 mobilelab operated by StatLab Mobile at Residential Plaza for Elderly At Blue Lagoon in Miami.
Florida COVID-19cases on the rise butpositive rate is steady BY DANIEL CHANG
THURSDAY’S DEVELOPMENTS
All owners with at least a20% stake in the businessmust personally guaranteethe loans, according to crite-ria laid out in a countywebsite for the program.
The idea is to use thefederal money to launch amore long-term pool of dol-lars for small businesses inMiami-Dade, with the repaidloans lent out again as thecoronavirus crisis recedes.Miami-Dade also will seekgrants from foundations andcommunity groups to boostthe original loan fund of $25million.
Commissioner EileenHiggins, the sponsor, saidshe wanted the Rise fund “toforever be a permanent partof the small-business infra-structure in Miami-Dade.”
This is the secondemergency loan programlaunched by Miami-Dade tohelp businesses during theeconomic disruption broughton by the coronavirus crisis.Last month, the county used$5 million in federal moneyto create a forgivable loanprogram for businesses.
For the RISE program, theDade County Federal CreditUnion will process the loanapplications as submitted by
Miami-Dade is using $25million in federal coronavirusrelief to launch a micro-loanprogram for small businessesleft out of other economicaid tied to the pandemic.
Approved by county com-missioners this week, theRise Miami-Dade programuses community groups toscreen applicants for thelow-interest loans capped at$30,000. The loans arelimited to Miami-Dade busi-nesses with less than $2million in sales and fewerthan 25 employees.
“Right now, we’re lookingat a record number of clos-ings of restaurants,” saidChad Cherry, who runs theChef Kulture culinary net-working organization. “Mymembership ... largely wereignored when it came toCOVID relief funds. ... Withthe [county] program we canget skin in the game.”
While some local andfederal COVID-19 loan pro-grams are forgivable, theRise program would offertraditional loans due forrepayment within 36 months.
community-based financialinstitutions.
Miami-Dade hasn’t set up
the application process yetbut launched a website forbusinesses interested inapplying when the programopens in the next few weeks.The website isrisemiamidade.com.
Douglas Hanks:305-376-3605, @doug_hanks
Dade launches $25 millionloan fund for small businesses
BY DOUGLAS HANKS
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