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THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINABLE USE OF
BIOMASS FOR INDUSTRY
Dr Jim PhilpPolicy Analyst
Q: How many farmers are in the audience?
1000 2000 3000
Living off the land Living off the landA brief moment
in history
Oilconsumption
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• 10 out the 11 previous major recessions in the US have been preceded by an oil price spike1
• A 10% rise in oil prices removes 0.2-0.3% from global GDP growth2
• Can oil production be maintained ?
– By 2030, there may be 1.3 billion vehicles on the roads and by 2050 this could double again
– By century end plastics demand may could be 20-fold current demand
• Climate change mitigation requires deep GHG emissions cuts
• Deepwater Horizon costs3 may exceed a staggering $42 billion4
• For an average platform, each 30 metres of added depth increases the probability of a company-reported incident by 8.5%5
Energy security and the oil trap
1 Hamilton (2011). Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, volume 15(S3), pp. 364-378.2 The Economist (2011). Print edition Special Report, September 24. 3 BP most recently estimated the quantifiable cost of the settlement at $9.2bn – already $1.4bn more than its original
estimate – but said the final charge would end up being significantly more than that4 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/naturalresources/article3801365.ece5 Muehlenbachs et al. (2013). Energy Policy 55, 699–705.
Energy security
60
40
20
00
1900 1950 2000 2100
Billions of
barrels per year
80
100
120
Oil demand 2% growth
Expensivecrude oil
Prohibitivelyexpensivecrude oil
Inexpensivecrude oil
“Every two years we need to build a new Saudi Arabia” Peter Voser, former CEO Shell, 2013.
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Food, water, soil security – reconciling
agricultural and industrial needs of biomass
• Food production to increase 50-70% by 2050
• Models predict severe future droughts (e.g. 10 years in US Midwest)
• 70% of all fresh water use is for agriculture
• 1 in 4 may suffer water shortages by 2050
• Soil being destroyed at unprecedented rates
• RESULT: make more food
with less water on less soil
AND provide industrial biomasshttp://greenfieldgeography.wikispaces.com/Soil+and+change
• An internationally agreed framework on biomass sustainability is top priority
BUT
• No agreement on how to measure biomass sustainability (indicators, tools)
• No agreement on biomass potential
• Already there are international biomass disputes
Sustainable biomass nuts and bolts
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Star Wars or biofuels sustainability ?
Regionalinitiatives
National initiatives(governmental or private)
Internationalbodies’
initiatives
Multi-stakeholderinitiatives
Sustainable biofuels
EU Directive National GlobalCEN
FAO G8+5OECD IDB IEA IFC UNEP ISOCBD
RTFO ISCC RFS Sugarcanezoning
GBEP Task39 EquatorPrinciples
RSB PC 248NEN
NTA 8080
etha STAR
VSE
Green energy BEFSCI LCFSBNS Green Protocol
Nationalcommitment
CSBP2BSvs RBSA
Scorecard
Bonsucro RTRS
RSPO
Rainforest
Substa-CBD
IFC Principles
No agreement on indicators except GHG
emissions reductions, 34 countries 473 responses
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Minimization of GHG emissions
Optimization of energy balance
Protection of air quality
Minimization of deforestation
Conservation of HCV areas
Minimization of loss of biodiversity
Protection of soil quality and quantity
Protection of water quality and quantity
Effect of the end-use on the local environment
Sustaining yield of land
Minimization of (indirect) land-use changes
Minimization of indirect social and economic …
Priority for local food & construction product …
Priority for energy security
Social well-being (labour and human rights …
Minimization of child-labour
Land-use rights compliance
Local welfare (improvement local economy)
All countries
Most relevant
Very relevant
Relevant
Not relevant
3
1
2
van Dam, J. and M. Junginger (2011) Energy Policy 39, 4051–4066.
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US “Billion ton study”
Million dry tons
2030
2022
2017
2012
1400120010008006004002000
2030
2022
2017
2012
1400120010008006004002000
Forest land resourcescurrently used
Forest land biomass andwaste resource potential
Agricultural resourcescurrently used
Agricultural land biomass andwaste resource potential
Energy crops
(a) Baseline scenario (b) High-yield scenario
US DoE (2011), U.S. Billion-Ton Update: Biomass Supply for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry”, R.D. Perlack andB.J. Stokes (Leads), ORNL/TM-2011/224. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN. 227 pp.
• An excellent tool for orientation purposes in the initial phase of labelling and for comparing system alternatives (but only for certain aspects!)
• An inadequate instrument to compare (similar) products or to set limits based on LCA indicators
• Other instruments are cheaper and more reliable
• Tools for complete assessments needed
LCA is…
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Environmental impacts of bio-based
products
Weiss et al. (2012). Journal of Industrial Ecology 16, Supplement S1, S169–S181
Polytrimethylene terephthalate (27,5)
Polylactic acid (21,3)
Ethyl lactate (15,5)
Ethylene (6,1)
PHA (36,1)
Caprolactam (3,1)
Adipic acid (9,1)
Succinic acid (18,2)
Acrylic acid (3,1)
Acetic acid (18,1)
Allyl butyl ether (18,1)
1,5 Pentanediol (27,3)
Ethanol (14,2)
20-2-4-6-8500-50-100-150
Non-renewable primary energy use (GJ t-1) Climate change (t CO2 equivalents t-1)
Weiss et al. (2012) found that biobased materials save, on average, 55 +/- 34 MJ non-renewable energy and 3 +/- 1 kg CO2 per kg material
A proposal from The Netherlands: TFP
for biomass sustainability assessment
Total Factor Productivity index (TFP)
• Includes externalities (social and economic)
• Numerical harmonisation: aggregation into a common metric
𝑇𝐹𝑃 =𝐴𝑔𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑠 ("𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑠" − "𝑏𝑎𝑑𝑠")
𝐴𝑔𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑠
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Inputs
Capital inputs
Labour inputs(Child labour)
Energy
Materials
Business services
FEEDSTOCK PRODUCTION
TRANSPORT
CONVERSION
DISTRIBUTION
Good outputs
Palm oilPalm press fibre Palm kernel cake
Positive externalities
Emissions, waste, deforestation, toxicity, working conditions
Negative externalities
Bad outputs
Dual use: palm oil
Image courtesy of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
• Tenera palms result in 30% more oil per land area than dura palms
• Oil palm provides 45% of global edible oil
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Genomics identified the Shell gene and
its role in oil production
• This indicates a clear path toward more intensive use of already planted lands
• May lessen pressures to expand the land area devoted to oil palm onto endangered rainforest land
• Use of the Shell genetic marker for selection to distinguish the three fruit forms in the nursery long before they are field-planted
• Currently, it can take up to six years
Singh et al. (2013). Nature 500, 335-9
• Traditional lowland rice - when flooded the plant grows to get above the water, runs out of nutrients and dies
• Variety SUB1A - does not grow while flooded and starts growing again after the flooding has subsided
Dual use: rice
Immediately after flooding 3 months later
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• Right now hundreds of millions of tonnes of rice straw are burned in Asia
• Burning causes serious pollution and health problems
• It has no commercial value
• A feedstock for cellulosic biorefineries ?
Rice straw – waste or resource ?
• Attracting inward investment through
the bioeconomy strategy
• Verdezyne investing USD 48 million in
Malaysia to produce renewable chemicals
• First commercial bio-isobutanol plant
in Asia
• World’s first bio-methionine plant and
Asia's first thiochemical platform
• Integrated biorefinery project
• Biopharmaceutical manufacturing and
development facility
Malaysia and bio-based production
“While Europe talks, Asia builds”
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• Sustainable biomass conflicts will increase in future due to the increasing pressure on available fertile land
• Hundreds of disputes in Indonesia already
• The issues relate to:
– Human rights (land rights, worker’s rights, local economies)
– Environment (effects on soil, land, air, biodiversity and climate)
– Economics (international trade, market distortions, property rights and business-to-business conflicts)
An international biomass dispute
settlement facility ?
Replacing the oil barrel
Dicarboxylic acids• Adipic• Acetic• Lactic• Succinic• 3-Hydroxypropanoic
Aromatics ?
Petrol • Short-chain alkanes
Diesel• Mid-chain alkanes• Fatty acids
Diols • 1,3-PDO• 1,4-BDO
Thermoplastics • Polyethylene• Polypropylene• PET• PVC
Short-chain alkenes • Ethylene• Propylene• n-Butenes
Lower alcohols• Ethanol • Butanol
• Isobutene• Isoprene• Butadiene
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The industrialisation of photosynthesis
Alkanediesel
EngineeredCyanobacterium
Waste CO2
Alkane diesel
Growth
Secretion
Water
EsterifyHarvest Extract
Non-potable water
Algae
CO2
Lipid bodies
(a) Direct, continuous process for renewable diesel production
(b) Algal biomass diesel production
Robertson et al. (2011). Photosynthesis Research 107, 269–277.
Triglyceride Biodiesel esters
Killer combinations
Synthetic biology Cellulose (terrestrial) Chitin (marine)
Wood chemistry Waste gases Coal chemistry
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Integrated biorefinery logistics ?
Biomass conversion and/or ethanol / biodiesel plant
Neighbouring farms
Farm cooperative
MSW
CoastalIntegrated Biorefinery• Imported biomass• Agriculture• Forestry• MSW• Waste gas• Algae ?
Urban
Rural
Logging/forestresidues
“Although bioeconomy might contribute substantially to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, it is not yet integrated in the broader policy fields and discussions regarding sustainable growth, climate protection or preservation of eco-systems. The Global Bioeconomy Summit aims at identifying challenges and opportunities at stake”
Policy alignment: Global Bioeconomy
Summit, 2015, Berlin, November 25-26
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