AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
The impact of the 11-year solar variabilityon climate
Simulations with the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (FUB-CMAM)
Ulrike Langematz
„Solar variability – climate interaction“ AWI/IUP Blockseminar, Universität Bremen, 13. February 2006
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Objectives
What is the contribution of solar variability to climate variability?
What is the contribution of solar variability to climate change?
Solar variability is caused by different processes (orbital parameters, magnetic processes in the Sun‘s interior).
• millenium time scale (e.g. Holocene) • centennial time scale (e.g Maunder Minimum)• decadal time scale (e.g. 11-year Schwabe cycle)• 27-day rotation period
It varies on different time scales:
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
IPCC, 2001
Natural and anthropogenic climate factors
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)
1363
1364
1365
1366
1367
1368
1369
78 80 0385 90 95 00
0.1 %
Fröhlich (2000), update: http://www.pmodwrc.ch/solar_const/solar_const.html
To
tal
So
lar
Irra
dia
nce
W
/m2
Schwabe-Cycle
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Solar signal in 30 hPa geopotential height
Labitzke und van Loon (1995), updated
Tem
pera
ture
sig
nal:
Obs
erva
tions
Hood (2004)
NCEP/CPC (1980-1997) SSU/MSU4 (1979-1997)
-1 K
+1 K
+2.5 K
+0.8 K
+0.25 K
Courtesy of Bill Randel (2005)
SSU/MSU4 (1979-2003)
Crooks and Gray (2005)
1.75 K
0.5 K
+0.8 K
-0.25 K
0.5 K
Scaife et al. (2000)
ERA40 (1979-2001)
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Lean et al., 1997
11 year solar max minus min
0.1 % variation in TSI
Mechanisms I: Variations in UV-Radiation
>50% in 121,6 nm (Lyman-α)
5-12% in 175-240 nm
3-5% in 240-260 nm
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Low energy electronsStay in thermosphereMax at solar maximum
High energy electronsStratosphere/mesosphereMax at solar minimum Solar proton events (SPEs)
Thermosphere/mesosphereMax at solar maximum
Galactic cosmic rays (GCR)Lower stratosphereMax at solar minimum
Mechanisms II: Charged Particle Precipitation
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Dynamics
Δ Absorption ofsolar UV-radiation
Δ NOx / HOx
chemistry
Δ UV Δ CP
Temperature
Ozone
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Transfer of the solar signal from the upper to the lower atmosphere by
• radiative coupling
• dynamical coupling
• chemical coupling
The Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (FUB-CMAM)
Basis: ECMWF / ECHAM (Röckner et al., 1992)
Resolution: T21 (5.6°x 5.6°), T42 (2.8°x2.8°) L19 (top at 10 hPa, ~30 km); L34, L70 (top at 0.0068 hPa, ~84
km)
Physics: • Radiation-scheme for O3, CO2 and H2O (Morcrette, 1991)
Absorption of UV/VIS by O3 in 8 bands >70 hPa (Shine&Rickaby, 1989) Absorption of UV/VIS by O2 (Strobel, 1978)
Newtonian-cooling for IR above 60 km • Hydrological cycle and vertical diffusion • Rayleigh-friction in upper mesosphere
Ozone: Variable climatologies (e.g. Fortuin & Langematz, 1994)
Ocean: Climatological or annually varying SSTs (AMIP)
Pawson et al., 1998; Langematz (2000)
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
FUB-CMAM editions for solar cycle studies
sunT21, L34
high resolution UV radiation
SW-radiation module• 43 bands in strato-and mesosphere• Absorption due to O3 and O2
• Lyman-alpha
sun-qboT21, L34
sun plus QBO-relaxation
QBO-modulelinear relaxation of zonal wind in the tropical lower stratosphere
sun-chemT21, L34
sun plus chemistry & transport
Chemistry modulebased on Steil et al. (2003)SLT-transport modulebased on Bräsicke, 1998; Mieth (2000)
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Sensitivity studies: Impact of UV-radiation
ΔUV ΔO3
or
Model: FUBCMAM sun (Pawson and Langematz, 1998; Langematz, 2000, Matthes et al.,
2003)
11 –year cycle: • prescribed UV-changes (Lean et al., 1995)• prescribed ozone changes (J. Haigh) • perpetual january
or
Radiative coupling
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
sola
r U
V IC-O
3
Langematz and Matthes, 2005, in Vorbereitung
Radiation and ozone changes are both important..
Radiative Impact of UV and ozone changes FUB CMAM, max-min, perpetual January
Direct radiative solar signal in temperature in the upper stratosphere.
Short wave heating rates (K/day)
Radiative coupling
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Matthes et al., 2003
Temperature signal due to UV and ozone FUB CMAM, max-min, annual mean
Significantly higher temperatures at solar maximum in the stratosphere
Strongest temperature signal at the equatorial stratopause (> 1K)
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Early Winter Anomalies
Theoretical concepts
Kodera and Kuroda (2002)
1. Initial radiative solar signal in upper stratosphere
2. Positive feedback between waves and zonal wind with poleward-downward“ movement of wind anomalies (Kodera, 1995)
3. Modulation of Mean Meridional Circulation (MMC)
4. Temperature changes in equatorial lower stratosphere
Dynamical coupling
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Labitzke (2003)
Observations: Solar cycle QBO30 hPa height (m), Feb 1958-2003, NCEP/NCAR
Dynamical coupling
Major stratospheric warmings in solar maximum/QBO west (Labitzke and van Loon, 1988)
max-minPhase of tropicalstratospheric winds
is important.
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Matthes et al. (2004)
QBO WestQBO East
11 – year cycle: Prescribed UV- and ozone changes
Solar sensitivity studies: QBO
Model: FUBCMAM sunqbo plus QBO relaxation: (Pawson and Langematz, 1998; Langematz, 2000, Matthes et al.,
2004)
Dynamical coupling
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Matthes et al. (2004)
JNMC Data (1979-1998)
J
J
J
JNov
Dec
Jan
Feb0.4 hPa
850 hPa
Zon
al w
ind(max – min)
NH – winter circulationDynamical coupling
Model
Poleward-downward movement of zonal wind anomalies only with QBO-feedback
Major stratospheric warmings in solar solar maximum/QBO west (Labitzke and van Loon, 1988)
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
stratospheric response
tropospheric response
Solar signal in the troposphere Ihigh latitudes
NH zonal wind anomalies (max-min) in winter
0 km
80 km
Matthes et al. (2004)
Downward propagation of wind anomalies from stratosphere to the troposphere throughout the winter
Dynamical coupling
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Nov Dec Jan Feb
no significant surface signal significant surface signal (pos. AO) surface signal disappears
monthly mean geop. height differences (max-min) – 900hPa
Solar signal in the troposphere IIhigh latitudes
Matthes et al. (2004, 2006)
Significant solar signal in lower troposphere in December and January
Dynamical coupling
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
w max-min January w max-min (mm/s) precipitation max-min (mm/d)
monthly mean differences in vertical motion and precipitation (max-min)
Solar signal in the tropospherelow latitudes
Matthes et al. (2004, 2006)
Significant changes in vertical motion, precipitation/cloud cover
Dynamical coupling
Lagged to changes in upper stratosphere by about 2 months
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
2d CTMs, annual mean (%), max-min
IC (Haigh, 1994) GISS (Shindell et al., 1999)
2d- chemical models do not reproduce the observed minimum in the equatorial middle stratosphere
Solar sensitivity studies: OzoneCalculated 2d-ozone change vs. observed ozone
change?
Chemical coupling
Ozo
ne s
igna
l: O
bser
vatio
nsSBUV/SBUVII (1980-1997)
Lee and Smith (2003)
SBUV/SBUV II (1979-1989)SAGEI/II (1984-1998)
Lee and Smith (2003)
%
Shindell et al. (1999)
Hood (2004)
6 %
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Changes in chemistry module:
• Changes of TOA fluxes in photolysis scheme (Landgraf and Crutzen, 1998)
• Changes of Lyman- flux by 53.88% between solar min and max.• NOx sources > 55° lat on top 3 levels (>72 km) were reduced in sol max
and enhanced in sol min (Callis et al., 1999, 2001).
Prescribed UV changes
Calculated ozone changes NOx-sources for REP precipitation
11 – year cycle:
Solar sensitivity studies: ozone II
Model: FUBCMAM chemsun (Langematz et al., 2005)
(Pawson and Langematz, 1998; Langematz, 2000, Matthes et al., 2003)
plus interactive chemistry
Chemical coupling
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Ozone [%]
Mesospheric ozone decrease (max-min)H2O [ppmv]
OH [molec/cm3]
Mesospheric ozone decrease is due to stronger catalytic destruction by HOx.
–
+ Lyman- photolysis
+
+ OH production
January
Chemical coupling
(Langematz et al., 2005)
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
NO2 [ppbv]
NO [ppbv]
Stratospheric ozone increase due to weaker catalytic destruction by NOx.
–
–
– thermospheric NOx source due to weaker EEP
Ozone [%]
January
High latitude ozone increase (max-min)
Chemical coupling
(Langematz et al., 2005)
Polar ozone measurements confirm ozone changes due to REP(Sinnhuber et al., 2005).
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Ozone decrease in lower tropical stratosphere partially due to chemical effect.
annual mean
Ozone [%]
50 hPa, Equator:
Ozone (max-min): = -5.8 %
Reaction dO3/dt (Min) dO3/dt (Max)
O3 + HO2 –297.74 –375.09NO2 + O3P –137.35 – 74.25OH + HO2 – 20.52 – 26.96ClO + O3P – 27.76 – 36.31
Chemical sinks: –29.23 ppt/day
But also radiative self-healing-effect ?Or effect of dynamical change ?
Ozone increase in tropical lower stratosphere (max-min)
Chemical coupling
(Langematz et al., 2005)
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Conclusions
Direct radiatively induced solar signal in the upper atmosphere is well understood.
Recent progress in understanding downward transfer of solar signal into lower stratosphere and troposphere by indirect dynamical mechanism.
First progress in understanding chemical impact of solar variability.
Open questions remain concerning solar signal in stratospheric ozone, the troposphere and the ocean.
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Current FUB activities
11-year solar signal in stratospheric ozone 11-year solar signal in the troposphere and the ocean using MA-ECHAM5-MESSy (cooperation with MPI-Chemie, Mainz) centennial solar signal (Maunder Minimum and holocene) using FUB-EGMAM
DFG-CAWSES-project ProSECCO (Project on Solar Effects on Chemistry and Climate Including Ocean Interactions)
cooperation with University Bremen (J. Notholt, M. Weber, M. Sinnhuber)
EC-project SOLVO (The Influence of Solar Variability on Climate)
11-year solar signal ↔ QBO 11-year solar signal in the troposphere NCAR WACCAM (in cooperation with NCAR (USA)
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
• radiation: • Decrease of TSI = 1367.0 Wm-2 by 0.1% for solar min. • Spectral UV flux variations in 43 bands based on Lean et al., 1997
• chemistry: • TOA fluxes in photolysis scheme (Landgraf and Crutzen, 1998)
were changed by (min to max)
Interval (nm) %change178.6 – 202.0 9.52202.0 - 241.0 4.00241.0 - 289.9 1.38289.9 - 305.5 0.42305.5 - 313.5 0.40313.5 - 337.5 0.20337.5 - 422.5 0.20422.5 - 752.5 0.00
• Lyman- flux was changed by 53.88% from solar min to max.
• NOx sources >55° lat on upper 3 levels (>72 km) are decreased at sol. max and increased at sol. min (Callis et al., 1999, 2001)
FUB CMAM-CHEM solar cycle experiments
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Solar impact studies: GCMs with coupled chemistry
Ozone (%) and Temperature (K) solar (max-min)in FUB-CMAM-chem
Ozone [%] Temperature [K]
-3 30 10-1
annual mean
Langematz and Grenfell (2004)
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Ozone [%]
-3 0
Ozone response (%) (max-min)annual mean
3 Hood, 2004
SBUV/SBUV2 satellite data1980-1997
Chemical coupling
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Solar sensitivity studies: Radiation ⇔ Ozone FUB-CMAM-sun, max-min, perpetual January
sola
r U
V IC-O
3
Langematz and Matthes (2004), in preparation
Solar impact studies: Sensitivity studies
Radiation and ozone changes Between solar min and maxare equally important.
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
GRIPS solar cycle studies: NH winter circulationzonal wind, max–min (m/s)
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
GRIPS solar cycle studies: SW heating ratesannual mean, max–min (K/d)
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Solar sensitivity studies: OzoneFUB CMAM, max-min, perpetual January
IC-O
3
GIS
S-O
3
Langematz and Matthes (2003), in preparation
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Solar studies with coupled chemistry
MA-ECHAM4/CHEM Model • T30 L39, chemistry (Steil et al., 1998) (Manzini and Mc Farlane, 1998) • TSI and spectral solar variations in
radiation scheme and chemistry
• 20 year integration
FUB-CMAM-CHEM Model • T21 L34, chemistry (Steil et al., 1998) (Langematz, 2000; Mieth et al., 2003) • TSI and spectral solar variations in
radiation scheme and chemistry
• 14 year integration
Met. Office Unified Model • 2.5° x 3.75°, L64, with chemistry (Austin, 2002) • TSI and spectral solar variations in
radiation scheme and chemistry
• 18 year integration
SOCOL Model • T30 L39, MA-ECHAM4 + MEZON (Rozanov, pers. comm) • TSI and of spectral solar variations in
radiation scheme and chemistry
• 20 year integration
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
The Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model
FUB-CMAM-CHEMBasis: FUB-CMAM: T21 L34
Chemistry: (Steil et al. 1998): 18 tracers I.e. CH4, N2O, H2O2, HCl, (HNO3+NAT), NOx, ClOx,Ox, CO, CH3OOH, ICE, ClONO2, F11, F12, CH3Cl, CCl4, CH3CCl3, H2; 107 gas-phase reactions (DeMore et al.,1994);
7 photolytic reactions (Landgraf and Crutzen, 1998); 4 heterogeneous reactions on PSCs and sulphate;tropospheric emissions and thermospheric NOx source
Tracer transport: Semi-Lagrangian Transport Scheme(Böttcher 1996, Braesicke 1998, modified by Mieth 2000)
Gravity waves: orographic: McFarlane (1987); Non-orographic:Hines (1997), Manzini and McFarlane (1987)
Mieth et al. (2003), in preparation.
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Solar impact studies: Solar CCM-Intercomparison
Ozone (%) solar max-minCCM Intercomparisonmore ozone:
faster jO2
effect ?
less ozone: faster jH2O effect ?
AG „Mittlere Atmosphäre“, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Solar impact studies: Solar CCM-Intercomparison
Temperature (K) solar max-minCCM Intercomparison
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