The Great Recession
May 2012 Suzan Reagan, Labor Economist
2007-2009
The recovery has started, really.
Labor Market Information •Job Descriptions •Education •Wages •Employment levels •Future Growth
• NM Economic Situation – Industry
• Recession History/impact of • Current Situation • What’s Next
– Occupations • Sources of Data
– Career Solutions – LASER
Agenda
The Great Recession
•Started December 2007
•Housing Peaked on 2006
•High Oil and Gas prices early 2007
•Financial Markets in August 2007
0
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1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
New Mexico Private Housing Building Permits, 1988 - Present
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60
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120 NM Oil Rig Count
Average price per barrel in 2006 was $62.65
Average price per Barrel in 2002 was $27.46
Oil prices averaged $91.77 in 2008
Current price per Barrel is about $97.26
2011 summer hovered around $100.00 In September fell to $79.85 Finishing in December around $100.00
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ISM Manufacturing
.
Values above 50 represent expansion.
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US Retail Sales, 1992 to present
US In thousands
NM
Total Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
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900,000 19
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12-3
NM US
NM vs. US Employment from 1990 to Present
How BAD?
• Max September 2008: 852,900 • Min January 2011: 795,700 • Difference: -57,200
March 2008: 847,500 March 2012: 804,400 Difference: -43,100
Labor Market Supply and Demand!
NM Total Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted:
NM Industries Change
•Mining lost over 500
•Construction shed about 16,000
•Manufacturing lost another 8,000
•Retail took a hit with 6,000
•Admin & Waste Svs 5,000
•Bright spot Health Care +12,000
-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 Agriculture
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate
Professional & Technical Services
Management Companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Waste Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services, Ex. Public Admin
Public Administration
Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
Central Area Industry Change
-12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Agriculture Mining* Utilities
Construction Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing Information
Finance and Insurance Real Estate
Professional & Technical Services Management Companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Waste Services Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, Ex. Public Admin
Public Administration
Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
Eastern Area Industry Change
-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500
Agriculture* Mining*
Utilities* Construction*
Manufacturing* Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing
Information Finance and Insurance
Real Estate* Professional & Technical Services
Management Companies & Enterprises* Administrative & Waste Services*
Educational Services* Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services, Ex. Public Admin* Public Administration
Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
-6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Agriculture Mining
Utilities* Construction
Manufacturing* Wholesale Trade*
Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing*
Information* Finance and Insurance
Real Estate* Professional & Technical Services
Management Companies & Enterprises* Administrative & Waste Services*
Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation* Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, Ex. Public Admin
Public Administration
Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
Northern Area Industry Change
Southwestern Area Industry Change
-2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Agriculture Mining* Utilities
Construction* Manufacturing*
Wholesale Trade* Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing Information*
Finance and Insurance Real Estate
Professional & Technical Services Management Companies & Enterprises*
Administrative & Waste Services Educational Services*
Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation*
Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, Ex. Public Admin*
Public Administration
Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
NM Employment Industry Mix Utilities Mgt of Companies Real
Estate Agriculture Arts &
Entertainment Information
Transportation Mining Other Services
Finance
Wholesale
Manufacturing
Admin, Support & Waste Mgt
Construction
Professional, Scientific & Tech Svc
Educational Svcs Accommodation &
Food Svcs
Retail Trade
Government (EX. Health & ED.)
Health Care & Social Assistance
Source: Projections unit 2009-2019, NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
The Great Recession Ended July 2009?
17
Current Employment Situation The unemployment rate for:
March 2012 March 2011
The US is at 8.2% 8.9%
New Mexico 7.2% 7.5%
Albuquerque 7.5% 8.0 %
Las Cruces 7.0% 7.6 %
Santa Fe 5.3% 6.2 %
Farmington 7.1% 8.3 %
The bad news is…
Seasonally Adjusted
What about…
19
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization U-6
NM 15.1% US 15.6%
Second Quarter of 2011 through First Quarter of 2012 Averages.
• Unemployed
• Part time for economic reasons
• Multiple Jobs holders
•Marginally attached workers
•Bureau of Labor Statistics
•4 QTR Moving Average
•http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
Part time but would work
full time Discouraged unemployed workers
Multiple job holders
County Unemployment Rates
6.5 7.8
6.2
6.0
7.4
4.4 4.2
6.6 4.0
7.1
8.9
3.8
4.2
5.3
3.1
16.9
7.9 13.6
5.8
7.1
7.2
4.4
6.5
6.7 7.8 5.2
6.1
4.8
7.9
7.9
4.3
7.8
5.4
7.2
8.2
6.6
6.2
7.8
4.6 3.8
7.2 4.1
7.2
11.2
4.2
5.9
4.3
5.5
3.1
19.9
8.7 13.9
7.2
7.2
8.4
4.6
7.1
7.3 8.1 5.5
6.7
5.0
9.1
7.7
4.5
8.2
NM UI Continued Claims Duration
Based on UI Summary Data 2nd Qtr 2011:
Average Duration 20.1 weeks in 2011
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Tota
l Une
mpl
oyed
(Tho
usan
ds)
Four-Quarter Period
Chart 1: Number of Statewide Unemployed by Duration (in Weeks of Unemployment)
52+ 27-51 15-26 5-14 <5
US Unemployment Rates for Men and Women
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11
Men Women
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
New Mexico Unemployment Rate by Age 2011 annual averages
22.9
12.5
8.7 6.5
5.5 3.9 4.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
16 to 19 yrs 20 to 24 yrs 25 to 34 yrs 35 to 44 yrs 45 to 54 yrs 55 to 64 yrs 65 years and over
Source: Census Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment
7.4%
New Mexico 2010 Unemployment Rate
8.6%
9.2%
14.4%
8.8%
11.6%
11.1%
11.3%
7.2%
9.0%
White, one race
Black or African American, one race
American Indian and Alaska Native, one race
Asian, one race
Some other race
Two or more races
Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race)
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino
Population 20 to 64 years
Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin
Source: 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Table S2301 Employment Status
2010 Census Population by County
National Trends – projected population by age
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
NM Population Projections by Age
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
April 2000
July 2005 July 2010 July 2015 July 2020 July 2025
65 years & over45 to 64 yrs25 to 44 yrs18 to 24 yrs14 to 17 yrs5 to 13 yrsUnder 5 yrs
Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005
NM Employment Projections Annual Average Percent Change 0.97
Projected 958,000 NM Job Recovery
Minimum Employment January 2011 at 795,700
Max Employment Sept. 2008 at 852,900
740,000
760,000
780,000
800,000
820,000
840,000
860,000
880,000
Dec-
07
Mar
-08
Jun-
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Dec-
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Dec-
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Employment Recovery
Employment Pre-Recession
Trendline according to 2009-2019 Industry Projections.
Intersect in 2016.
Casselman, Ben. “A State-by-State Look at Long Road to Jobs Recovery.” Wall Street Journal Blog, November 14, 2011
Tigger Slide
Occupations
32
O*NET / SOC 2010 Code Structure Sample code : 15-1152.00 Title: Computer Network Support Specialists
11- Management Occupations 13- Business & Financial Operations Occupations 15- Computer and Mathematical Occupations 17-Architecture and engineering Occupations 19- Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 21- Community and Social services Occupations 23- Legal Occupations 25- Education, Training, and Library Occupations 27- Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Related 29- Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occs. 31- Healthcare Support Occupations
33- Protective Service Occupations 35- Food Preparation & Serving Related Occs. 37- Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 39- Personal Care and Service Occupations 41- Sales and Related Occupations 43- Office &Administrative Support Wkrs 45- Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occs. 47- Construction and Extraction Occs. 49- Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 51- Production Occupations 53- Transportation and Material Moving 55- Military Specific Occupations
Organized into Groups:
NM Occupational Category Employment 2009
1,898 6,514 7,612
11,916 13,372 14,132 14,205
22,093 22,500
28,081 28,476 30,674
34,768 36,226 38,534
44,614 51,359 54,581
69,105 76,328
87,210 132,720
Transportation & Material MovingLegal Occupations
Farming, Fishing & ForestryArts, Design & EntertainmentCommunity & Social Services Life, Physical & Social Science
Computer & Math OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering OccsProtective Services OccupationsHealthcare Support Occupations
Business & Financial OccupationsProduction Occupations
Building & Grounds Cleaning OccsInstallation, Maintenance & Repair
Personal Care & Service OccsHealthcare Practitioners & Technical
Management OccupationsEducation, Training & Library Occs
Construction & Extraction OccsFood Preparation & Serving Related
Sales and Related OccupationsOffice & Administrative Support Occs
Source: NM Department of Workforce Solutions Economic Research & Analysis Bureau
NM Occupational Group Annual Average Percent Change
2009-2019
0.3-0.7
0.71.3
0.81.4
0.61.2
2.61.4
-0.30.5
0.92.1
1.80.5
0.61.3
0.91.1
0.80.7
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Legal OccupationsFarming,Fishing & Forestery
Arts, Design & EntertainmentCommunity & Social ServicesLife, Physical & Social Science
Computer & Math OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering OccsProtective Services Occupations
Healthcare Support OccupationsBusiness & Financial Occupations
Production OccupationsBuilding & Grounds Cleaning Occs
Installation, Maintenance & RepairPersonal Care & Service Occs
Healthcare Practitioners & TechnicalTransportation & Material Moving
Management OccupationsEducation, Training & Library Occs
Construction & Extraction OccsFood Prep & Serving Related
Sales & Related OccsOffice & Admin Support Occs
Occupational Employment by Education Needed
First professional degree
1%
Doctoral degree 2%
Master's degree 1%
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work
experience 4%
Bachelor's degree 13%
Associate degree 3%
Postsecondary vocational training
6%
Work experience in a related occupation
9% Long-term on-the-
job training 6%
Moderate-term on-the-job training
17%
Short-term on-the-job training
38%
Source: 2009-2019 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS
NM 10 Occupations with the Highest Employment Occupation
2009 Estimated
Employment
Retail Salespersons 29,520
Cashiers 20,684
Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food
17,194
Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 17,162
Construction Laborer 14,853
Waiters and Waitresses 14,496
Personal and Home Care Aides 14,441
General and Operations Managers 14,048
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners
13,873
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 13,692
Nationally - Retail Salespersons and Cashiers make up nearly 6 percent of total US Employment, OES 2011.
NM Occupations, Most Annual Openings Rank Occupational
Annual Average Job
Openings
2009 Entry Level Wage
(OES)
1 Retail Salespersons 1,167 $16,746 2 Cashiers 1,120 $16,117 3 Waiters and Waitresses 939 $16,292
4 Personal and Home Care Aides 882 $17,477
5
Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 851 $16,252
6 Customer Service Representatives 682 $21,289
7 Registered Nurses 539 $48,863 8 Home Health Aides 524 $17,548
9 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 411 $21,169
10 Stock Clerks & Order Fillers 401 $17,158
11 Elementary School Teachers, Ex Special Education 369 $39,581
Highest Growth Jobs in NM Occupations
2009-2019 Annual Percent Change
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 4.2% Home Health Aides 4.0% Actuaries 3.9% Personal and Home Care Aides 3.9% Petroleum Engineers 3.8% Self-Enrichment Education Teachers 3.4% Medical Equipment Repairers 3.4% Pharmacy Technicians 3.0% Physical Therapist Aides 2.8% Compliance Officers, Except Agriculture, Construction, Health and Safety, and Transportation
2.7%
Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers 2.7% Medical Assistants 2.6%
NM Occupations – High Wage & Growth
Rank Occupational Title
2009 Annual Entry
level Wage (OES)
09-19 Annual Job
Growth
1 Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts $40,681 4.2%
2 Petroleum Engineers $56,763 3.8% 3 Medical Equipment Repairs $24,841 3.1%
4 Compliance Officers (Environmental, EEO Property, Regulatory) $31,356 2.7%
5 Radiation Therapists $46,765 2.6%
6 Physical Therapists $41,922 2.6% 7 Dental Hygienists $27.51hrly 2.6%
8 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians $31,671 2.5%
9 Surgical Technologists $25,607 2.5%
10 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists $28,493 2.3%
11 Computer Software Engineers $52,435 2.2%
12 Training and Development Specialists $35,539 2.2%
13 Detectives and Criminal Investigators $42,114 2.1%
Show me the money! 12 Highest paying jobs in New Mexico Occupation
Annual Median
Wage (OES )
Family and General Practitioners $167,202
Dentists, General $163,711
Obstetricians and Gynecologists $163,216
Pediatricians, General $161,955
Podiatrists $131,556
Engineering Managers $126,672
Actuaries $123,353
Nuclear Engineers $119,862
Law Teachers, Postsecondary $117,219
Agricultural Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary $113,687
Air Traffic Controllers $108,423
Pharmacists $104,506
Lowest Paying Jobs in New Mexico Occupation
2009 Annual Median
Wage (OES)
2009 Hourly Median
Wage (OES)
Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers $16,090 $7.74
Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders $16,222 $7.80
Baggage Porters and Bellhops $16,414 $7.89
Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food
$16,424 $7.90
Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders
$16,475 $7.92
Costume Attendants $16,495 $7.93
Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse
$16,606 $7.98
Designers, All Other $16,617 $7.99
Waiters and Waitresses $16,646 $8.00
The Top 15 NM Occupations in Decline 2009-2019 Occupation Title
Annual Percent Change
Textile Cutting Machine Setters Optrs -5.6%
Bindery Workers -5.5%
Drilling & Boring Machine Tool Optrs , Metal & Plastic -4.4%
Sewing Machine Operators -4.4%
Milling & Planing Machine Optrs, Metal & Plastic -4.3%
Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors -4.3%
Dental Laboratory Technicians -4.1%
Packaging & Filling Machine Operators -3.4%
Job Printers -3.4%
Semiconductor Processors -3.4%
Jewelers Precious Stone & Metal Workers -3.3%
Order Clerks -3.2%
Postal Service Mail Sorters & Processing Machine Optrs -3.1%
Photographic Processing Machine Optrs -2.9%
Detailed job profile for nearly 800 occupations
• Job Description +knowledge, skills, tasks, abilities • SOC and O*NET
• Training Program Completers • Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) crosswalk Many-to-Many
• Typical Education Requirements • Wage Statistics by area and industry • Employment Projections • Employment by Industry • Area’s available:
– Statewide, – 4 MSA’s, – 4 Workforce Investment Regions
Job Corp Pathways • Welding • Cement Masonry • Plumbing • Electrical Wiring • Facilities
Maintenance • Carpentry • Office Admin. • Health Occupations
Tools for LMI • Career Solutions : http://www.dws.state.nm.us/careersolutions/
• LASER: http://laser.state.nm.us/
• NM Workforce Connection: https://www.jobs.state.nm.us/
• Green Jobs: http://www.greenjobs.state.nm.us
• National http://careeronestop.org/
• O*NET lookup http://www.onetonline.org/
•O*NET Academy http://www.onetacademy.org/
Education Pays
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