The Future of Work
Caribbean Future of Work Forum, Kingston, Jamaica
Wednesday 22 February, 2017
José M. Salazar-XirinachsRegional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean
THE FUTURE OF WORKis influenced by four main groups of drivers
•- New business models- On-line platforms: e-Bay- Gig economy - crowdwork- Work-on-Demand- Global supply chains - Outsourcing
- Consumer awareness about:privacy, health, diet, environment,ethics.
• Economic cycle -“deceleration”
• Large productivity gap
• How to achieve greater productive diversification / economic complexity
• - Internet- Cloud technology- Big data - Internet of things- Automation- Robotics- Additive manufacturing, 3D- Genetics and bioprocesses
• - Longevity
- Youth explosion
- Greater humandiversity, migration
- Gender parity IDemographic
and population-
related
IITechnological
IITechnological
IVRelated to
models/enterprisestrategies and
forms of contracting
IVRelated to
models/enterprisestrategies and
forms of contracting
IIIRelated to productive
development (or under-
development)
IIIRelated to productive
development (or under-
development)
FUTURE OF WORKDrivers of change in the world of work
New business models•- On-line platforms: e-Bay•- Gig economy - crowdwork•- Work-on-Demand•- Global supply chains •- Outsourcing
• Consumer awareness about:•privacy, health, diet, environment, ethics
• Economic cycle -“deceleration”
• Large productivity gap
• How to achieve greater productive diversification / economic complexity
• - Longevity
• - Youth explosion
• - Greater human diversity, migration
• - Gender parity IDemographic
and population-related
IITechnological
IITechnological
IVEnterprise
models and forms of
contracting
IVEnterprise
models and forms of
contracting
IIIRelated to productive
development (or under-
development)
IIIRelated to productive
development (or under-
development)
• - Internet• - Cloud technology• - Big data • - Internet of things• - Automation of knowledge
work• - Robotics• - Additive manufacturing, 3D• - Genetics and
bioprocesses
Impacts: opportunities and risks of theTechnological Revolutions
1) Disruption: impact on employment:
Dynamic of job destruction and creation –“technological unemployment” because of digital economy, automation
• Pessimistic outlook:– Machines will massively replace humans in
many occupations– McAfee & Brynjolfson, 2014; M. Ford, 2015;
Frey & Osborne: 47% of occupations at risk
• Optimistic outlook:– There will be replacement, but also complementarity and
an increase in human skills – For every ’ordinary’ job lost, three more will be
created with the ‘innovation explosion’ - Gil Giardelli, expert on innovation.
Impacts: opportunities and risks of theTechnological Revolutions
2) Transformation of occupations:– Demand for new, advanced skills
increases (STEM jobs), and– Existing skills become obsolete
more quickly
3) Risk of greater inequality:– Highly skilled, “connected”
workers win– Those with low skills, who are
“disconnected,” lose (Hollowingout - Author).
The rapid change in the skills profile for the 4th IR challenges formal education and occupational training systems and puts the focus ona Human Talent Development Agenda.
Impacts depend on degree of prepared-ness (capabilities) at various levels
Connectivity and
Computing Power
Connectivity and
Computing Power
Internet of Things (IT)
Data analysis and
Intelligence
Data analysis and
Intelligence
Advanced analytics and
Artificial Intelligence
(AI)
Human-machine Interface
(HMI)
Human-machine Interface
(HMI)
Augmented reality/ virtual
reality/ wearables
Advanced robotics
3D printing
• Innovation in Products or Services (Supply of the future)
Digital and Physical Transfor-mation
Digital and Physical Transfor-mation
• Individual (Operator of the future)
• Factory (Factory of the future)
• Enterprise (Producer of the future)
• Industry (Value chain economics)
• Government (Policies for productive development & jobs)
• Global (Global supply chains)
Degree of Prepared-ness
Rate of Adoption
CapabilityAssessment
Impact and rate of adoption depend on the degree of preparedness (capabilities) at various levels:
Convergence of New Technologies = Industry 4.0
21st Century skills at individual level
Basic knowledge:• Scientific:
mathematics, science.
• Reading • ICTs• Financial• Cultural/Civic
Competencies:
• Critical thinking• Creativity• Communica-
tion• Collaboration
Character traits / socio-emotional skills• Persistence• Adaptability• Curiosity• Initiative• Leadership• Social and cultural
awareness
The “operator of the future” must have:• Ability to deal with intelligent machines• Ability to adapt, observe, judge and take decisions • Ability to learn to learn and adapt • Innovation is done by people!! • The best jobs demand these skills
Qualifications and skills are the key to the Future!
FUTURE OF WORKDrivers of change in the world of work
•-•New business models•- On-line platforms: e-Bay•- Gig economy - crowdwork•- Work-on-Demand, •- Global supply chains •- Outsourcing
•- Consumer awareness about:•Privacy, health, diet,•environment, ethics
• Economic cycle -“deceleration”
• Large productivity gap
• How to achieve greater productive diversification / economic complexity
• - Internet- Cloud technology- Big data - Internet of things- Automation- Robotics- Additive manufacturing, 3D- Genetics and bioprocesses
• - Longevity
- Youth explosion
- Greater human diversity, migration
- Gender parity IDemographic
and population-related
IITechnological
IITechnological
IVEnterprise
models and forms of
contracting
IVEnterprise
models and forms of
contracting
IIIRelated to productive
development (or under-
development)
IIIRelated to productive
development (or under-
development)
How has Productivity performed in Latin America and the Caribbean?
From bad to disastrous
• The region’s economies have been growing because of raw materials prices and factor accumulation, not because of productivity
• Average productivity is 50% of US level. In some countries, it is 30%. Instead of closing, the gap is widening.
– “The tragedy of Latin America” - IDB 2010– “The Achilles’ heel of the region’s economies” - ECLAC– 2016
• Structural transformation has not shifted enough workers from low-productivity sectors to high-productivity sectors (Rodrik & McMillan, 2012).
• Exports are concentrated in just a few products.
• Large gaps in innovation, education and work force skills.
Productivity and productive development are a pending task and a an urgent agenda!
What can be done to speed up productivity growth?
• Countries should start new engines for growth. Avenues include:– Quality education and relevant training– Greater formalization of employment and enterprises– More employment in medium and large enterprises and less
self-employment and employment in microenterprises– Diversification of production: new sectors – Policies to improve preparedness for adoption and
dissemination of new technologies and the 4th IR– Policies to promote innovation
• Major institutional instrument for various of these goals: Cluster development policies with a sectorial and territorial approach.
Cluster and productive development policies
• The functions of cluster initiatives are:
– To accelerate learning, innovation, adoption of technologies and productivity, through “interactive learning” and “discovery” processes, benefiting from “economies of agglomeration”.
– To resolve “coordination failures” and facilitate public-private collaboration.
– To organize collective action: Promote the design and implementation of joint projects among enterprises that belong to the cluster and between those enterprises and other members of the cluster network, and make the provision of public inputs specific to the cluster more efficient.
– To invest in human talent specific to the cluster, resolve skills-mismatch problems and improve local labour markets.
Questions and Answers
• Where will the jobs in the Caribbean come from?– From new engines of growth based on concrete economic
activities:• Tourism• Financial services• Creative industries• Agriculture and agribusiness• Green growth: Renewable energy, • Blue• Strong entrepreneurial ecosystems
– From formalization and a higher proportion of medium sized enterprises
– From Strong Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
Questions and Answers
• What are the policies and institutions needed to ensure that innovation and technological change create new and better forms of work?– Policies: Productive Development Policies:
• Productive diversification, • Productivity growth, • Export growth, • Investment attraction, • Innovation, • Education and skills.
– Institutions: Social dialogue institutions for productive transformation and employment
• Productivity and Competitiveness Councils• Skills councils• Dual Education & on the job training institutions
Questions and Answers
• How do we match the skills and training with the needs? – Comprehensive approach to 21st Century Skills– Technological prospection– On the job training and dual education– Sectoral skills councils and social dialogue– Better alignment of skills development policies with PDPs– Skills recognition and certification– National Qualification Systems
CLUSTERS IN BASQUE COUNTRY
YEAR
ACEDE – Basque Home Appliances Cluster 1992
AFM – Machine Tools Cluster 1992
ACICAE – Basque Automotive Cluster 1993
GAIA – Electronics & ICT Cluster 1994
UNIPORT – Port of Bilbao Cluster 1994
ACLIMA – Basque Environmental Cluster 1995
Energy Cluster 1996
HEGAN – Basque Aerospace Cluster 1997
Basque Maritime -Shipbuilding Cluster 1997
Paper Cluster 1998
EIKEN – Basque Audiovisual Cluster 2004
• Cluster policies can be a powerful tool for promoting productivity, linkages, formalization, innovation, internationalization and quality employment:
– In 2010, there were more than 130 cluster development programmes in 31 European countries (European Cluster Observatory)
– In 2010, the US SBA launched more than 40 clusters throughout the country
– In the Autonomous Community of the Basque Country, the cluster development policy has been a key ingredient of PDPs, with great success
Cluster and productive development policies
Industrial and Cluster Policies in the BasqueCountry: Research, Technology and Innovation
• 128 Entities in the Basque Science & Technology System• 4 Universities with more than 67,000 students• Generation of knowledge:
– 9 BERCs: Basque Excellence Research Centres
– 7 CICs: Cooperation Research Centres (Research in biomedicine, biomaterials, nanosciences, advanced manufacturing, micro-technologies, energy, tourism)
• Technological Development:– 2 leader platforms in Europe with 2,900 research professionals
• 6 Sectoral centres• 6 Health R&D units• 6 Public research entities• 4 Science and technology parks with more than 15,000 people
working in more than 400 enterprises• All of that in a country with 2.5 million inhabitants!
Source: R Monge and JM Salazar-Xirinachs, Políticas de Clusteres y de Desarrollo Productivo en la Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco, ILO Americas, Technical Reports, #3, 2016.
CONCLUSION –Growth and productive development
• A better future of work depends on theimplementation of policies that foster productivedevelopment and human talent, to promoteinclusive growth with more and better jobs.
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