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S. M. Pietruszko, PV Centre PolyCity Warsaw, 03 Sept. 2009

The future of solar electricity (Photovoltaics)

Stanislaw M. PIETRUSZKOStanislaw M. PIETRUSZKO

Centre for PhotovoltaicsCentre for Photovoltaics

Warsaw University of TechnologyWarsaw University of Technology


Responsible energy policy for thefuture

Renewable energy sources with an efficient and rational use of energy are capable of:

• preserving resources,

• ensuring security and diversity of energy supply,

• providing energy services, virtually without anyenvironmental impact.

RES are well distributed and decentralised.


Why Photovoltaics?

• Direct conversion of sunlight to electricity

• No pollution

• No noise

• Wide range of applications (off- and on grid, BIPV)

• Modularity

• Helpful in disasters


2008 – 85%

2007 – 70%

2006 – 40%

2005 – 45%

2004 – 60%

2003 - 32%

2002 - 44%

2001 - 36%

2000 - 43%


World Cell Production Shares per region (MW)

in 2008 (2007)


TOP PV markets 2006-2008

Updated 24 April 2009, Source: 2008: EPIA/BSW/national PV associations, 2006: Eurobserver, IEA-PVPS

Total market volume:2006: 1 600 MWp2007: 2 400 MWp2008: 5 500 MWp

11001500

MWp

New installed 2006

New installed 2007

New installed 2008

2511


PV Market Drivers• National Programs

• Technological development


The four main technology routes

9

Crystalline Silicon(wafer based)

New ConceptsIII – V compounds

(GaAs)

Thin Film


Classification of Solar Cell types

Silicon

Compound Semiconductors

Other Concepts

Solar Cell

others

organic structures

Dye sensitised

III - V groupGaAs, InP, etc.

Chalcogenides

GaAs

InP

others

crystalline

amorphous + µc

other Chalcopyrites

single crystalline

multi crystalline

Si thin film

CIS

CdTe

its form / (crystalline-) structureby basic material and


Best cell Efficiencies

Source: NREL Note: This graph does not include the 40.8% multijunction concentrator cell confirmed in 2008, nor the re-evaluated CIGS cell at

20% (September, 2008).


PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS

• offoff--grid domesticgrid domestic

•• offoff--grid nongrid non--domesticdomestic

•• onon--grid distributedgrid distributed

•• onon--grid centralised (grid centralised (>100 kW)

• consumer applications

• space applications


Off-grid domestic

2 bln people without electricity


Off-grid non domestic


On-grid distributed


BIPV


BIPV - colored solar cell


On-grid centralised


Space applications


Customer Needs

on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency

€/kWh €/hr light W/m² g/W

Source: Fraunhofer ISE

€/m² / aesthetics €/W flexibility W/mm²


Energy pay-back time (NL):status and near-future development

Alsema, de Wild-Scholten and Fthenakis, Proc. EUPVS EC21 (2006)

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

ribbon multi mono ribbon multi mono

Yea

r BoS

Frame

Laminate


Energy Payback for PV Systems

Cumulative Net Clean Energy Payoff

120

80

40

0

MW

h cl

ean

ener

gy

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Investment

Years

Return

Source: NREL


Cost of Energy

(EURO cent/kWh)• Fossil fuels– coal 5 - 9 – gas 3 – 5

– Nuclear 4 - 9

• Renewable energy– wind 4 - 12– water 2 - 8– biomass 5 – 9– solar thermal 12 - 18– Solar electricity (PV) 25 - 65


SOLAR ELECTRICITY

• PV is positioned to meet the critical energy-sector demands world-wide in the coming decades.

• The cost of photovoltaic (PV) electricity:

– too high for bulk power production in utility grids

– cost-effective for peak power applications and local grid support

• Important natural market in the world-wide off-grid applications


24h-Energy Profile

0:00

6:00

12:0

0

18:0

0

24:0

0

Ele

ctric

al E

nerg

y [a

rb. u

nits

]

Low Tariff Low TariffHigh Tariff

Electricity supplied by Utility

Fed-InEnergy

Solar Energy

Energy consumption of building

Electricity supplied by Utility


Summer

Winter

Standard20,64

6,35

26,78

21,42

31,92

30

10

20

¥/kWh

hours1260 2418

Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005

winter

summer

$ct/kWh

hours

60

20

0

40

0 6 12 18 24

Range of Electricity Prices in California (data from Alison Hyde, BSW)


PV Competitiveness

Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH

Photovoltaics

Utility peak power

Bulk power

ElectricityGeneratingCost for PVand utilityprices

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

€/kWh

900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh

1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh


Value of PV kWhs

• PV solar electricity systems provide– decentralized kWhs at point of use– good integration in future Smart Electricity Networks– excellent correlation with high prices at peak hours in

summer and afternoons

• Value of PV kWhs is not correlated with– avoided fuel costs for power stations– cost and price of bulk power electricity

• … but well correlated with – peak hour prices in liberalized markets (higher cost for

peak electricity results in higher prices)– today 20 … 30 €ct/kWh– future 25 … 40 €ct/kWh


SRA aims quantified: characteristics of PV technology

1980 Today 2015 / 2020 2030 Long term potential

Typical turn-key system price(2006 €/Wp, excl. VAT)

>30 5

(range 4~8)

2.5 / 2.0 1 0.5

Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2006 €/kWh)

>2 0.30 0.15 / 0.12(competitive with retail electricity)

0.06(competitive with wholesale electricity)

0.03

Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies

up to 8%

up to 15%

Up to 20% up to 25% up to 40%

Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies

(∼∼∼∼10%) up to 25%

Up to 30% up to 40% up to 60%

Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs)

>10 2 1 0.5 0.25


Grid parity in Europe – 2007(lines to guide the eye)

insolation map : Šúri M., Huld T.A., Dunlop E.D. Ossenbrink H.A., 2007. Potential of solar electricity generation in the European Union member states and candidate countries. Solar Energy (in press), http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/

irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)

600 0.50

1000 0.30

1400 0.21

1800 0.17


irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)

600 0.50

1000 0.30

1400 0.21

1800 0.17



irradiation PV generation(kWh/m 2·yr) cost (€/kWh)

600 0.42

1000 0.25

1400 0.18

1800 0.14




600 0.33

1000 0.20

1400 0.14

1800 0.11




600 0.17

1000 0.10

1400 0.07

1800 0.06



Electricity Production by RES in Germany

© BSW-Solar 2008

36

Electricity production in TWh

Wind energy

Hydro energy

Photo-voltaic

Biomasssolid

BiogasBiomass

liquidBiomass

othersGeo-

thermal Total

Electricity production by PV in 2007: 3 TWhShare of PV of electricity demand: 0.6% Source: BSW-Solar


Market introduction

Renewable Energy Law (EEG) since April 2000 (revised Jan. 2004 and June 2008)

• tells how to deal with electricity from Renewables fe d into the grid

• Reimbursement - Photovoltaic 0,54 – 0,62 EUR/kWh over 2 0 years

• Reimbursement will be lowered for new systems by 5% (8-9%) annually from 2009

FEED-IN TARIF THE BEST SUPPORT MECHANISM


Schematic of typical grid connected PV system


1100

850850

600

3 3 3 3

150

807840

12101274

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

annually installed PV power in MWp total installed PV power in MWp

39

© BSW-Solar 2008

Milestones

1991: First Feed-in Law

2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)

2004: Amendment of EEG

PV Market Data 2007

Newly installed power 1 100 MWp

Total installed power 3 834 MWp

No. of newly installed systems 130 000

No. of total systems installed 430 000

Turnover 2006 5 Bln €/7.25 Bln $

Employees 40 000

Tot

al in

stal

led

PV

pow

er in

MW

p

1991 - 1995: 1,000 Roofs

Program

1999 - 2003: 100,000 Roofs Progr.

Low-interest loansfor 300 MWp

Development of the German PV-market


Solar cell/module production 2005-2010 (GW)

3,35

8,7

13,1

17,9

0,7

1,1

1,5

2

2,6

4

6,1

10,2

15,1

20,5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Non-c-Sic-SiSerie3

Source: Photon Consulting Note: Preliminary


Electricity generating cost

[€ct/kWh]Eurelectric /

VGB Power Tech

Today

2005

Tomorrow

2030

Day after tomorrow

2050

Fossile (coal, gas) 4 - 4.5 6-7 6.5 - 9

Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR)

4 – 6 3.5 – 7 3.5 - 6

PV solar electricity(south/north)

20/40 5/10 3/6

= own estimates


Warsaw University of Technology

CENTRE FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS

Stanislaw M. Pietruszko

Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Polandtel.: +48-22-234 7782, 7530; fax: +48-22-234 7782

[email protected]

http://www.pv.plVersion: Polish and English