The Future of Nuclear Market – Challenges and Solutions:
New Projects, New Products, New Business-Models
26.06.2013
Dzhomart Aliev
Director General
Rusatom Overseas
www.rosatom.ru
Rosatom’s Global Perspective For Nuclear Energy DevelopmentRosatom’s Global Perspective For Nuclear Energy Development
2
Latin America
Africa & Middle East
Rest of Asia
India
Canada
Western Europe
USA
Central & Eastern Europe
Russia
Korea
China
Japan
12
21 19
2010 2011 2012
Rosatom's
Portfolio, units
The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated
companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.
Top Five 2013 (Ranks I-V) Ranks VI-X
www.rosatom.ru 33
2020
United States 103 863
France 66 094
China 53 617
Japan 31 404
South Korea 31 028
Russia 22 343
2030
China 124 197
United States 113 444
France 67 456
South Korea 38 550
Japan 32 728
Russia 32 059
2013
United States 99 800
France 62 919
Japan 44 215
South Korea 22 936
China 21 213
Russia 20 932
The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated
companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.
Rosatom’s Base Case Installed Nuclear Capacity Forecasts, MWe
Key Global Trends: the Rise of China, Africa & Middle East RegionKey Global Trends: the Rise of China, Africa & Middle East Region
www.rosatom.ru
New Nuclear Projects Form New Market Conditions and New Type of RequirementsNew Nuclear Projects Form New Market Conditions and New Type of Requirements
4The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated
companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.
*Rosatom’s Base Case Forecast Excluding New Nuclear Power Counties** Rusatom Overseas Upper Projections
NEW
Number of countries wishing to include nuclear energy in their energy program is growing, creating competitive environment with new conditions, demand for new
products and business-models
New
co
mers
**E
sta
bli
sh
ed
nu
cle
ar
po
wer
co
un
trie
s*
IndiaRussiaChinaFrance
USASouth Korea
BrazilUKIran
SlovakiaPakistanFinlandTaiwan
2013-2019 2020-2030Commercial Operation of New Projects
CanadaIndia
RussiaChinaFrance
USASouth Korea
MexicoSouth Africa
Czech RepublicRomania
NetherlandsBulgariaHungaryFinlandUkraine
UAEBelarusTurkey
EgyptJordan
LithuaniaNigeria
PhilippinesThailand
VenezuelaVietnam
Saudi ArabiaBangladesh
PolandIndonesiaMalaysiaAustralia
ChileBelarus
KazakhstanTurkey
Conditions
Products
Business-
models
- Established NSSS Vendors - NSSS Vendors and NSSS Customers - NSSS customers
www.rosatom.ru 5
New Conditions Suggest Mixed SolutionsNew Conditions Suggest Mixed Solutions
Country Readiness for Nuclear Power
International Suppliers
Local Suppliers
NSSS Vendor
Customer
International Suppliers
Competitors/Partners
Local Suppliers
Vendor
Customer
Vendor
Customer
Newcomers Established nuclear
power countries
Developed nuclear markets
80%
Vendor’s Target Share
50%
Vendor’s Target Share
30%
Vendor’s Target Share
Conventional Model NSSS-based Model Multi-contract Model
In order to meet the demand from all types of customers Supplier has to be ready to propose offers corresponding to each of model in demand
The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated
companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.
www.rosatom.ru 7
Global Supply Chain is a Key Element of New Business ModelsGlobal Supply Chain is a Key Element of New Business Models
The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and
its affiliated companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.
Research Centers with diverse levels of autonomy and operation responsibility
Dealers or local independentdistributors
Provision of services through the local players
� Around 15,000 jobs in peak (9,000 in average)
� Around $ 15 bn.revenue of local companies
� Around $ 3,5 bn. tax income of local
� government
Effects (direct)*
Effects (indirect)*
� “1x10”: 1 job in operating NPP creates 10 jobs in infrastructure
� Access to vendor’s global pipeline (80 units by 2030)
* For a typical 4-unit NPP
www.rosatom.ru 7Source: Rusatom Overseas estimates, Rosatom, UxC
The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated
companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.
Development of S&MR technologies will lead to diversification of supply and the emergence of a range of vendor offers
New Products: Entering New Competitive LandscapeNew Products: Entering New Competitive Landscape
South Africa
Medium capacity(300 - 700 MW)
Small capacity(10 - 300 МW)
Large capacity(>700 MW)
Competitors’ Solutions
Rosatom Solutions
Argentina
Brazil
VVER-
1200
VVER-
1200VVER-
1000
VVER-
1000
VVER-TOIVVER-TOI
BN-800BN-800
BN-1200BN-1200
ACR-1000ACR-1000
EPR-1600 SWR-1000
ESBWRESBWR
APR-1400APR-1400
CPR-1000CPR-1000 ACPR-1000ACPR-1000
Atmea1Atmea1
АР-1000АР-1000
ABWRABWR
BRESTBREST
VVER-300VVER-300
IMRIMR
PEACERPEACER
TWRTWR
NP-300
PFBR-500PFBR-500
CNP-300CNP-300
IRISIRIS
EC-6EC-6
NIKA-70NIKA-70
VK-300VK-300
SVBR-100SVBR-100
VBER-300VBER-300
RITM-200RITM-200
KLT-40SKLT-40S
RUTA-70RUTA-70
ENHSENHSHPMHPM
PRISM PRISM
ARC-100ARC-100
SSTARSSTAR
STAR-LMSTAR-LM
EM2EM2
SmAHTRSmAHTR
GEMSTARGEMSTAR
GT-MHRGT-MHR
RADIXRADIX
NuScaleNuScale
mPowermPower
W. SMRW. SMR
Hl-SMURHl-SMUR
TPSTPS
VKT-12VKT-12
FlexblueFBNRFBNR
ACP100ACP100
ALLEGRO ANTARES
MRXMRX
LSPRLSPR
Fuji MSRFuji MSR
PBMRSMARTSMART
CAREMCAREM
NHR-200NHR-200
AHWR300AHWR300
HTR-PMHTR-PM
PHWRPHWR
CEFRCEFR
GTHTRGTHTR
Canada
USA
USA
Japan
France
China
India
Republic of Korea
www.rosatom.ru
� Buy� Build
� Finance� Operate
� Control Non-proliferation
Emergence of Global Long-Term Demand for Small and Medium ReactorsEmergence of Global Long-Term Demand for Small and Medium Reactors
8The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated
companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.
* Rusatom Overseas estimates
** Rosatom Forecasts
0 0
1,6
27,7
0,21,1
2,6
46,5
2013 2015 2020 2030
SMR Installed capacity & Market forecast**
Small and Medium Reactors Installed Capacity, Gwe
Market Forecast, ∑196 bln1
Argentina
Armenia
Kazakhstan
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Slovakia
China
India
Brazil
UruguayChile
Peru
Saudi Arabia
Nigeria
Ghana
Namibia
South Africa
Morocco
Tunisia
JordanUAE
Vietnam
Australia
Russia
JapanUSAS.Korea
- Base case* - Upper Case*
France
Completely new market with its own rules
Great deal of new designs
Great potential for newcomers
Great potential for new types of customer
In order to keep up with the growing pace of the market new regulatory environment is required to accelerate the process of prospective technologies’ licensing
www.rosatom.ru
New Competitive Landscape forms Growing Demand for New Contract ModelsNew Competitive Landscape forms Growing Demand for New Contract Models
9* Based on Rusatom Overseas Upper Case Estimates
The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated
companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.
BOO, BOT models have already proved their sustainability in other industries
Currently, newcomers are looking for more convenient contract models in order to secure more international involvement
Under BOO, BOT supplier has an opportunity to bring the following advantages to a new market:
Operational experienceSustainable NPP maintenanceSpent fuel take-back optionDecommissioning
Key advantage of BOO, BOT model: Financial risks are shared by a supplier and a customer
Operational risks are mitigated more effectively
Potential Number of NPP Units in Commercial Operation under BOO, BOT
Contract Models*
Rosatom Case• Financing scope and parameters may be widely granted by the Russian vendor depending on different
factors, i.e. country creditworthiness, Rosatom’s equity share, volume of Russian equipment supply, presence of co-operation on other projects, etc.
• Rosatom is the first to become NPP operator in a foreign country; • Thus, a unique proposition with very low financing costs could be achieved
www.rosatom.ru
Mining
Gas centrifuges
manufacturing
Fuel fabrication
Spent nuclear
fuel treatmentPower
Generation
Conversion
and enrichment
NPPs engineering
& construction
Power equipment
and services
Research and
development
Rosatom is Able to Meet any New Customer Demand by Adjusting to the New Market RequirementsRosatom is Able to Meet any New Customer Demand by Adjusting to the New Market Requirements
10
Product Line Bild – Own – Operate Model
Localization
Rosatom has a long-lasting experience in equipmentproduction and services localization and sourcing
20% 39%
Up to
70%
LOVIISA Finland
1970-1
980
2002-2
011
New proposals for EU countries are based on AES-2006 design
2011
KUDANKULAMIndia
Local supplier’s share in equipment and services supply
Rosatom offers complete solution from uraniumsupplies to NPP construction operation anddecommissioning
Medium capacity(300 - 700 MW)
Small capacity(10 - 300 МW)
Large capacity(>700 MW)
VVER-1200VVER-1200
VVER-1000VVER-1000
VVER-TOIVVER-TOI
BN-800BN-800
BN-1200BN-1200
BRESTBREST
VVER-300VVER-300
NIKA-70NIKA-70
SVBR-100SVBR-100
VBER-300VBER-300
RITM-200RITM-200
KLT-40SKLT-40S
RUTA-70RUTA-70
VK-300VK-300
Rosatom offers a full range of reactor capacities - from LargeCapacity VVERs to Small Capacity SVBRs.
Akkuyu NPP – the first BOO project overseasAkkuyu NPP – the first BOO project overseas
Integrated Solution
Reactor type: VVER-1200
Total capacity: 4 800 MWt
Construction years: 2011-2021
Republic of Turkey - Akkuyu NPP
www.rosatom.ru
Thank You for Attention!
Dzhomart AlievDirector GeneralRusatom Overseas
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: +7 495 730 08 73
25
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