The End of Industrialism“Going Home”
Planning for Hard Times
Presented by
Pat Murphy, Executive DirectorCommunity Solutions
Yellow Springs, OH 45387October 27, 2007
Community Solutions – Vision & Mission Vision – To reduce energy consumption everywhere in every
way through community and personal action
Mission – To provide knowledge and practices to support low energy lifestyles in the household economic sector (food, housing, transportation)
Key Assumptions Peak Oil and Climate Change are interrelated Must become “sustainable” – watchword of our times “Sustainability” can be, and must be, measured
Community Solution Historical View For 10,000 years the world was “Agrarian”
200 + years ago Industrialism began Steam Engine – James Watt – 1769 (technology) Wealth of Nations – Adam Smith – 1776 (philosophy) Fundamental to colonialism – past and present
Industrialism – based on fossil fuels, machines and competition Agrarianism – based on land, biology (water, air) and cooperation
Industrialism is not sustainable Agrarianism is sustainable
World will become more Agrarian – one way or the other An Agrarian world can include bypass surgery and Internet There are many intermediate technologies
Fossil Fuel History and Future
Major increase in coal burning from 1875 – 1925 Oil usage began in first quarter of 20th century Oil/Natural gas hyper growth from 1945 Accelerated population growth
Population Increase and CO2
From 2.4 billion people in 1945 to 6.6 billion in 2007 Fossil fuels “feed our economy” – and our population 1 pound of fossil fuel generates 2.6 pounds of CO2
1945
2007
The Beginning of the End
Running low on oil Petroleum Geologists (ASPO) All fossil fuels finite Predictions began in 1970s
Running low on atmosphere Climate scientists (NOAA) Carbon absorption finite Predictions began in 1970s
2006
Sustainability – Defined and Measured
Sustainability defined – ~ 1 ton/CO2 per person per year 20 of ~200 nations with 70% of population
Sustainable ~1 ton/person
The Industrial Century: 1930 – 2030
Olduvai Gorge Metaphor – Richard Duncan – Oil, Gas, Coal 1945 – Country still “Agrarian” – just before hyper growth Went from 3 boe/c to 12 boe/c – 4 to 1 increase
Energy (and CO2) Inequity
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Energy CO2
US OECD-L ROW
Ratio of US and OECD–L
to ROW (ROW=1)
US per capita energy use/CO2 – 7/ 8 times ROW citizens
US with 4.5% of population has generated 27% of CO2
Region % Pop.
US 4.5% 300m
OECD-L 10.5% 700m
ROW 85% 5,700m
World and U.S. Household Sector Energy
Measure of per capita barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) Each American uses more energy for food than 5.7 billion
people use for everything!
Global Use US Use
World US
The “Inconvenient” Truth
Western Industrial “life style” is threatening life itself
China & India (2.5 billion people) have chosen industrialism Consumerism replaced socialism/communism Ecological deterioration is accelerating
“What kind of world will we leave our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren? What will they say of us? Will our great grand children say, "What kind of monsters must they have been?“
– US Representative Roscoe Bartlett (Rep) ASPO 2006
Beginning the Change (to Sustainability?) Three options – Plan A, Plan B, Plan C
Plan A – Business as usual (new fuels). Same lifestyle Plan B – Replace fossil fuels with wind/solar. Same lifestyle Plan C – The Party’s Over. Change lifestyle. Cut back fuels
Plan A – Denial – Fuel Cell, Nuclear Fusion, Carbon Capture The record is bleak. Big potential for war.
Plan B – Substitution – Wind, solar, biofuels Wind & solar still about 1%. Agri-fuels (food of the poor)
Plan C – Redesign – Curtailment and Community Use “intermediate” technologies Reduce consumption – change life style Focus on household sector – food, house, car
Community Solutions Targets
Vision & Mission Summarized To reduce energy consumption through community and
personal action in the household economic sector including food, housing, and transportation
Agrarian Food System – This presentation
House Deep Retrofit – Linda Wigington
Smart Jitney – Bob Steinbach
U.S. Food System – “10 for 1” Ratio
Replaced labor with fossil fuels
From .05 to 10 fossil calories
Labor efficient, energy negative land inefficient, soil destructive
Varies by food type All foods – 1 for 10 Factory meat – 1 for 16 Sodas – 1 for 30
ROW (5.7 billion) is quasi Agrarian – Mostly Sustainable Takes no fossil fuel calories to provide food calories This means 25–50%, or more, of people grow food
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Post WWII Policy – Destroy Family Farm
In 1945 US was still “Agrarian” to a degree
US “Declared War” on Farmers in late 1940s Ezra Benson – Eisenhower era (1950s) “Get Big or Get Out” Earl Butz – Nixon era (1960s) “Adapt or Die” Battle was over by the 1970s
Needed to Slander Agrarians
We are: worldly–wise, cool, hip, sophisticated, blasé, trendy, upscale, tony, chic (we being machine people)
They are: provincial, unsophisticated, hayseeds, bumpkins, yokels, hicks, peasants, hillbillies, natives, indigenous, county-cousins, rednecks, clodhoppers, (they being land people)
Our work – empowering. Theirs – back breaking & mind numbing
Probably the biggest blunder (or crime) in history Hurt 100s of millions of people around the world
Including 10s of millions of Americans Assault continues with WTO programs Indigenous farmers (U.S. & worldwide) are becoming serfs
Industrial vs. Agrarian Comparison
Agrarian countries use more labor – for healthier foods, soils Agricultural workers: US 1%, China 38%
China gets 6 times the calories per acre – while preserving soil
US generates 6 times the CO2 per person
Country US China Ratio
Population (106) 300 1,320 4.400
Total area (acres) (106) 2,378 2,370 0.997
Cropland – acres (106) 437 306 0.700
Ag workers ((106) 3 510.8 170.267
CO2/capita 19.7 2.9 0.147
Cropland/ag workers (acres) 145.7 0.6 0.004
Cuba’s Move to Modern Agrarianism
Experienced Peak Oil 1990 Severe and Rapid
Extreme societal change Searched country for farmers
In 18 months became 80% Organic
Major reforestation program
Urban gardens 50% of vegetables
Cubans diet changed Pork to veggies
Free Medical Care/Education/Sports Few cars/goods, tiny houses
Cuba Before
Rapid change dictated
by hunger, not Fidel
Average Cuban lost 20 lbs.
Government changed land policies rapidly (like Roosevelt)
Cuba only country to achieve sustainable development award! World Wildlife Fund 2006 Living Planet report UN Human Development Index & Ecological Footprint
Understanding the Food System
Can’t manage if you can’t measure – “to measure is to know” Need to understand energy/food numbers
Ignore the Supermarkets (Agribusiness) – Look in the fields
Two key divisions of our food system Meat and Animal Products – “Feed” and Fodder
Contained Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO) Corn, Soybeans, Hay as raw materials Most of acreage devoted to this
Plants – Food Basic food is healthy – grains, vegetables, grass-fed meat Manufacturing process depletes plant food value
Harvested Acreage – The Basic Numbers
268 million acres planted – the source of our food All food is plant based – animals are intermediaries The top 3 support manufactured/CAFO products
Grains – Main Staples (Calorie) Crops
Grains are the basis of animal “manufacturing” process Limited grains for personal consumption
The Big Grain Crop – Corn
US is world’s largest corn producer 11.8 billion bushels produced in 2004 – 10 billion domestic Land provides 1,900 pounds per person per year
2,200 pounds average food weight per year per person
Little corn eaten directly – a raw material for meat and sweets 6.2 billion bushels used for CAFO meat Much of rest for High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS)
“Heroin” of the food system Michael Pollan – “We are the corn people”
Grains – Wheat
Largest grain crop after corn Used primarily for human food rather than feed Domestic use 1,172 million bushels 184 pounds unprocessed wheat consumed per person
Wheat for humans is highly processed – (97% white flour) White flour (1907) is a nutritionally stripped product Vitamins added back by processors inadequate – 20 out, 4 in Raw material for poor quality manufactured foods
Processing removes fiber, vitamins, minerals, phytochemicals Fed to animals along with 79 million bushels plain wheat
Other grains – sorghum, barley, rice, oats, millet, rye – 12% Example of lack of variety
Oilseeds
Soybean – Unnatural food for animals; bad fats for humans Barely existed in early 20th century
Soybeans
US is world’s largest soybean producer 3,123 million bushels produced in 2004 2,021 million bushels used for domestic consumption 400 pounds per person per year
For animal feed and manufactured food
Soy beans consist of oil, meat, and hulls After oil extracted, carbohydrate residue fed to animals Made into harmful trans-fats (hydrogenated soybean oil)
“Cocaine” of the food system
Sunflower, peanut, canola, flaxseed, safflower, mustard – 6%
Hay – Largest crop after grains and oilseeds Largest crop after corn & soybeans
Perennial grasses/legumes used as feed 158 million tons in 2004 1,073 pounds per person
Enters American diet through beef cattle
and dairy cows
If corn provides meat, hay provides milk
Healthier Crops
Very small part of acreage planted
Priority is for bad food
Sugars, Legumes and Nuts
Sugars Sugars mostly replaced with high fructose corn syrup Sugar acreage 60% beets and 40% cane
Legumes Dried beans, dried peas and lentils Low energy replacements for CAFO products .7% U.S. harvested acreage for beans, peas and lentils Two pounds of beans about equal to one pound meat
Nuts .3% of harvested acreage for nuts Nuts can replace some CAFO meat
Fruits, Vegetables, Nuts (F-V-N)
Surprisingly small amount of acreage Americans eat about half what’s recommended
Vegetables
Vegetables divided into fresh vegetables and vegetables for processing.
30 Main Vegetables artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, lima beans, beets, broccoli,
cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, sweet corn, cucumbers, eggplant, endive, escarole, garlic, head lettuce, romaine and leaf lettuce, mushrooms, onions, bell peppers, potatoes, radishes, spinach, sweet potatoes, tomatoes, green peas, chili peppers, spinach, and other miscellaneous vegetables
Only 1.1% of farmland is used for growing vegetables.
Very Little Vegetable Diversity – (lbs)
Most potato consumption is French Fries
Fruits
Divided into fresh fruits and fruits for processing.
35 Main Fruits apples, apricots, avocados, bananas, cherries, cantaloupes,
cranberries, grapes, grapefruit, honeydew, kiwifruit, lemons, limes, mangoes, nectarines, oranges, papayas, peaches, pears, pineapples, plums, prunes, strawberries, tangelos, tangerines, temple oranges, watermelon, blackberries, boysenberries, cranberries, dates, figs, loganberries, olives, raspberries, and other miscellaneous fruit and berries.
1.1% of farmland allocated to fruit production
Lack of Fruit Diversity
Much of the fruit is consumed as beverages
Acreage Distribution Implications
Most of acreage for meat products and manufactured foods Corn for CAFO feed and HFCS for grocery manufacturing Soybeans for CAFO feed and hydrogenated oil for
manufactured foods Wheat for white flour
Industrialized Food Results
Bad Health $5,000 yearly medical expenses, $2,300 food expenses Cheap food contributes to bad health
Tortured animals
Lack of Diversity
Deteriorating soil
Poisoned waterways
Fossil water drawdown
Bad Food and Poor Health
U.S. is the unhealthiest of industrialized rich nations Life expectancy of 77, lower than Canada’s 80
U.S. medical costs per capita twice European countries Cheap food means expensive medical care
Two thirds of Americans are overweight or obese
Food system the main culprit Two major flaws – CAFO meat and Manufactured Foods Two major destructive foods – Corn and Soybeans
Foolishness vs. Wisdom US spends ~$2,500 for food and $5,000 for medical care EU spends ~$3,500 for food and $2,500 for medical care
Atwood Study – Poor Food Choices Nutritional Density Popularity What People Should Eat What people Eat Highest to lowest Lowest to highest Broccoli 1 Tomatoes Spinach 2 Oranges Brussels Sprouts 3 Potatoes Lima Beans 4 Lettuce Peas 5 Sweet Corn Asparagus 6 Bananas Artichokes 7 Carrots Cauliflower 8 Cabbage Sweet Potatoes 9 Onions Carrots 10 Sweet potatoes Sweet corn 11 Peas Potatoes 12 Spinach Cabbage 13 Broccoli Tomatoes 14 Lima beans Banana 15 Asparagus Lettuce 16 Cauliflower Onions 17 Brussels Sprouts Oranges 18 Artichokes
Torturing Food Animals for Cheap Meat Animals, like humans, have a natural way of life
Cows, goats, and sheep graze, pigs root, chickens scratch
CAFOs deny these natural behaviors Extreme stress (pain) for the animal No sunshine (constant artificial lighting!) No fresh air (never go outside) Many other torments Very short horrible lives
Live in fecal material (ground/air) Antibiotics required to keep animals alive High risk to human health
Animal Products – Not Grandparent’s Meat Animals earlier always part of diet
Hunting and grazing
Animals no longer graze freely Inhumane CAFO conditions
Fed wrong foods Diet injures them
Growing feed crops requires enormous amounts of fossil fuels FAO Report – Livestock's long shadow 2006 Livestock rearing creates more CO2 equivalent than cars
Americans eat twice what they used to US-271 lbs, Asia-60 lbs, Africa-40 lbs,
Central America-103 lbs
Manufactured Foods – Little Diversity
320,000 food and beverage products in U.S. Average supermarket carries 30,000- 40,000
People don’t eat 30,000 to 40,000 different things Recipes not food –combinations of white flour, corn
sweeteners & hydrogenated soybean oil with chemical flavoring & coloring
America’s “Flavor Industry” along New Jersey Turnpike Manufactures 2/3 of flavor additives sold in U.S. Flavoring/ coloring industry annual sales - $1.4 billion Also provides shaping and texturing products
Takes a lot of fossil fuels for a small number of foods
Soil Destruction & Water Drawdown Agriculture uses most of U.S water
Ogallala Drawdown occurring Irrigation vital to food supply Not sustainable
Erosion Topsoil becoming more shallow Part of giant monocultures
Quality of top soil declining – pesticides 1948–50 million lbs. 7% loss to insects 1965–35 million lbs. 1989–806 million lbs. 2000–985 million lbs. 13% loss to insects
Agrochemicals changing soil composition
Why Don’t We Know This?
Major cigarette companies are major food companies Grocery Manufacturers of America control food info Michael Pollan – “If it has a health claim, don’t eat it” $30 billion advertising for food – $10 billion for children
Conspiracy with USDA
Marion Nestle – Food Politics Explains corporate control
Recommends: Eat less, eat fruits, vegetables and whole grains, avoid junk food Following her advice would
destroy industrial agriculture And harm medical providers
Food companies control nutrition And information USDA supports agribusiness
Summary – Changing Times
Peak Oil and climate change will dramatically alter our future Can’t have 10-to-1 fossil fuel to calorie ratio any longer
At the core of the change will be a changed diet
Sustainability implies “measurable” Agrarianism Must reverse tragic move from agrarianism to industrialism From 2% of employment farmers to 25% (or more) U.S. will become more Agrarian – like it or not Agrarianism implies health–of people, animals, landscapes,
soils
Industrial Agriculture is destructive of almost everything Food consumerism is a disease, not a lifestyle
Recommendations
1. Learn – Ignorance of food system is appalling Due to deliberate action of food industry and USDA Learning includes understanding plight of workers & animals Everyone must master nutrition
2. Cut consumption to minimal healthy levels – 40% less
3. Change your diet to a healthier one – starting NOW Coming crisis cannot support current medical spending Eat seasonally and locally
4. Buy from Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) farmers Rebuild family farms
5. Plant a backyard garden – Must see food as life
Wendell Berry – The Unsettling of America “Earth’s growing numbers raises the specter of a famine more
catastrophic than the world has ever seen.” Wendell Berry: …we should be at work overhauling all our
assumptions about ourselves and what we have done….If we are heading toward apocalypse, then obviously we must undertake an ordeal of preparation. We must cleanse ourselves of slovenliness, laziness and waste. We must learn to discipline ourselves, to restrain ourselves, to need less….We must understand what the health of the earth requires, and we must put that before all other needs...let us undertake the labors of wisdom and make the necessary sacrifices of luxury and comfort”. – The Unsettling of America, 1977
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