The Culture War?
Questions for today
• Are we a polarized electorate?
• Arguments for the existence of polarization?
• Arguments against the existence of polarization?
What does polarization mean?
Ideology
• What do liberals believe?
• What do conservatives believe?
Are we a polarized electorate?
• Yes…
• Safe states
Red and Blue States
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/
Are we a polarized electorate?
• Yes…
• Safe states
• Safe congressional districts
• Rural/urban divide
Presidential Election 2008, by county
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/
Are we a polarized electorate?
• Yes…
• Safe states
• Safe congressional districts
• Rural/urban divide
• Religious/non-religious divide
Religion
• In 1992:– Committed mainline Protestant: 17% more R than D– Nominal mainline Protestant 10% more R– Committed evangelical Protestant 3% more R– Nominal evangelical Protestant 20% more D– Committed Catholic 31% more D– Nominal Catholic 28% more D– Jewish 64% more D– Non-religious 18% more D
Are we a polarized electorate?
• Yes…
• Safe states
• Safe congressional districts
• Rural/urban divide
• Religious/non-religious divide
• Gender divide
Gender
• In 1992:– Male: 1% more D than R– Female: 16% more D than R
• In 2008:– Male: 1% more D than R– Female: 13% more D than R
– Gender Gap in Party ID: 12%
Are we a polarized electorate?
• No…
• The electorate is not more polarized
2008 Presidential electionColor indicates percent R or D
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/
Resizing counties by population…
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/
Political inclinations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Democratic ID Republican ID Liberal ID Conservative ID
Red States Blue States
Issue positions
0
20
40
60
80
100
Fight for countryright or wrong
Favor schoolvouchers
Favor prescriptiondrug benefit
Protectenvironment
Favor increasedefense spending
Red States Blue States
More issue positions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Abortion alwayslegal
English officiallanguage
Affirmativeaction
Stricter guncontrol
Red States Blue States
Moral values
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Churches keep out ofpolitics
Ban dangerous booksfrom school libraries
Homosexuality shouldbe accepted by society
Ok for clergy todiscuss candidates
Red States Blue States
Are we a polarized electorate?
• No…
• The electorate is not more polarized
• Our electoral choices are just more polarized– Candidates– Officeholders
Why have elites become more polarized?
Why are elites more polarized now?
• Rise of purists/decline of professionals
• Civil service
• (Closed) Primaries
• Redistricting
• Realignment of the South
• Media? The internet?
Is it really just the elites?
Pennsylvania: blue state where the electorate is really moderate? Or big state with “Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the East, and Alabama in the middle?”
Rush’s audience: the elite?
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