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Agriculture + Environment: NZ in 2014
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National Level= Water
Reforms1. Fresh Start for Freshwater 2010 + National Policy
Statement in 2011 for Water + amended 2014
2. Allocation + Policy was not working, change happeningin less than 10 years..( Canterbury + Waikato Pine toPasture)
3. Land and Water Forum,(2010-2012)
4. National Objectives Framework (NOF)has set nationalenvironmental bottom lines(2013)water only fit for
secondary contact ?(boats + waders in all water bodies) butTOXIC Nlevels as bottom line.
Regional Councils must now go through community ledprocess to impose limits in each region.
(each new plan must give effect to community aspirations)3
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The NZ Growth Agendaincrease contribution to GDP
from 30 to 40% 2025
By doubling the rate of agricultural
growth seen in past decade
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Growth Agenda will Test Limits
Business Growth Agenda (AgExports to lift by 30% by 2025)(KPMG, 2013)
Double rate of growth to 7%CAGR compared with 3%CAGR past 20 years. (Ridett Institute, 2010)
Realising the Potential of960000 Ha of Maori OwnedLand(300,000 Ha class 4-6 land intensified tohigher performance each year for next 3 years)(Price Waterhouse Coopers, 2013)
Irrigation Infrastructure Fund(Govt + Crown Investment Schemes to
Accelerate Water Storage + Irrigation: eg:600,000 ha more Sth.Canterbury,)
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INTENSIFYING VULNERABLE
LANDSCAPES CAN BE COSTLY
WE NEED TO BETTER MANAGE
PATHOGENS +
NITROGEN + PHOSPHORUS +
SEDIMENT
The public cost to fix these UP at endof catchment is 10-20X what i t costs to
m it igate on farm .
ALL 4 NEED MANAGEMENT. 6
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Nitrate - through the Land
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Nitrogen Flows Into Lake or Rivers.Over years or centuries
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Phosphorus Detainment Bunds
11Dylan Clarke Photo
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4: Stream in Wairarapa following intensive grazing pressure on saturated soils.
The stream fails to be protected by GAP. High risk of P loss to 2ndorder streams.
P loss risk will not be quantified by OVERSEER in this case
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SENSITIVE STREAMS AND MARGINAL AREAS ARE STILL AT RISK
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Stream Upper WaihouNot Protected by Accord : Provided by J Quin (NIWA)
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Causes of decline in Freshwater Ecosystem Health
Increasing nutrient levels
Slow increases in P and N in a water ecosystem means moreprimary production in the water = (algal growth).
Eutrophication associated with nitrogen and phosphorus
pollution is undoubtedly one of the major threats to the
associated values of ecosystem health and life supportingcapacity in New Zealand
Nitrate nitrogen (N03-N) typically comprises the majority of the total N pool in rivers and is a form of dissolved nitrogen that is
readily used by primary producers such as periphyton
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Across the
RegionsSimilar Issues
Same Vision for
NZ BUT being
played outdifferently in each
region..
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NORTHLAND REGION =ICONIC COASTS
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Not unexpectedly, the highest
concentrations of nutrients
were generally recorded at
sites located close
to freshwater inputs. (NRC SOE report 2012)
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Dead zones where rivers meet sea
Water lacking oxygen lacks
life, which is why this area
is called the Dead Zone.
The oxygen-depleted
waters force fish and
wildlife to leave, while
bottomdwellers like Gulfshrimp often cannot escape
the Dead Zone and die.Scientists call this oxygen-depleted condition hypoxia
and it is getting worse in the Gulf. Sometimes the Dead
Zone grows larger than the state of Connecticut, nearly
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BAY OF PLENTY
ICONIC LAKESBAY OF PLENTY +
WAIKATO
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LAKE ROTORUA
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LAKE TAUPOVariation 5
Grand parented N Loss to allland holders.
180 Tonne of N bought fromland owners + locked owners
into a historical N loss
$80 Million cost to ratepayers.
Unfair allocation system? 21
LAKE ROTORUA270 T N/yr to be removed from the lake
Pastoral Land Use will need to drop by
around 50% - 100T N/Yr paid for by
incentive scheme ($40Mill)
$5.5 Mill to help farmers plan.
By 2032managed reduction must be
achieved.
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Waikato
WAIKATO RIVER
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Parliamentary Commissioner for Envt.
"Even with best practice mitigation, the large-scaleconversion of more land to dairy farming willgenerally result in more degraded fresh water," (Wright2013.)
In catchments where there has been large-scale landuse change to dairy farming the gains made byincreased mitigation are swamped
Even 100% compliance with Fonterra's SustainableDairying Accord signed this year does not solve theproblem.
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Rotorua State Highway 3024
THE UPPER WAIKATO CATCHMENT
= GROWTH WITH NO LIMITS
+ DECLINING WATER QUALITY
NEW ENTRANTS GRAB POLLUTION LOSS RIGHTS FROM ESTABLISHED FARMERS.
Established Farmers in the Upper Waikato Catchment may have to reduce nitrogen loss
by 30% just to make room for 25000 ha of conversions underway now. Even this action
will not be enough to protect the river.
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Waikato River at Tutukau Road : 60K North of Taupo
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Waikato River at
Cambridge
120 K Nth of Tutukau Rd
Clarity has decline by 1%
per year (fine sediment?)
E Coli(upper river)
+ N loads are increasing.
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Upper Waikato Catchment
First Step is to Retard the Water Quality Decline
If we do nothing, then the N load leaching to
the hydro lakes in 2030 will be 70% higher
than that now
Bill Vant (EW) 2006
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HAWKES BAY
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Hawkes Bay
Tukituki River + Ruataniwha Dam Proposal - (800-1200 mm rainfall) 25000 ha
irrigated + 14000 ha intensified. Proposed Land Use 37% Dairy, 32% mixed arable,9% orchard/vineyard.
HAWKES BAY +
RUATANIWHA
DAM PROPOSAL
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Hawkes Bay Regional Council
Originally sought to have N at TOXIC levels (3.8 mg/L)
Assumed that if P is managed then N can be toxic =contentious science.
EPA has ruled single nutrient(P only) management isinappropriate
2 weeks ago ruled that TWO NUTRIENTS (N + P) MUST
BE MANAGED and 0.8 mg/L N is the tukituki river limitto protect ecosystem health.
Land Use Capability is the Allocation System used for N.
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Limits set to protect water health
Limits are based on FIT FOR PURPOSE.
In river nitrate - N limits are supposed to be set to
protect freshwater aquatic life + provide lifesupport capacity + maintain ecosystem health.
The limits have nothing to do withdrinking water for stock orhumans.
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Real Story in Ruataniwha
Economic argument did not stack up
Land once converted will amount to $46000/Ha
No longer LOW COST DOWN UNDER due to price of land forpasture = $3800/TDM harvested vs $750/TDM in SW Vic
Cost of production using realisticfigures $5.00-5.50kg
Milksolids.
Add Debt servicing and require $9.00 kg MS long term to
be viable.
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HORIZONS - Manawatu
Allocation of N limits based on Land UseCapabilityallocation of N by land class.
Nitrate N limits based on ecosystem healthguidelines for Manawatu River: 0.44 mg/L Nitratenitrogen
FARMING DOES HAVE TIME TO ADAPT.
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CANTERBURY
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70% of region is at risk or
overallocatedOrangeand RedZones
Selwyn and Hurunui River limits are
based on Toxic N Levels
All Farms grand parented N loss.
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30% of shallow wells show N and
pathogen trends within a decade of
development
Ashburton has some of the highest
rates of gastro intestinal disease in
the developed world.
7 of the main rivers - algal blooms
2013 Summer= Not Swimmable.
70% of dairying is on shallow soils
in Canterbury
No Validation of OVERSEER for
these soils
Plans to double irrigation in the
region. 600000 Ha to 1200000 Ha
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Managing to Limits:
Toxicity vs ecosystem healththe battle over nitrogen
This discussion is still to be had
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National Objectives Framework
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Over the past 20 years we have cleaned up POINT
SOURCE POLLUTIONBut, the effects of DIFFUSE
POLLUTON has overtaken these effects, to lead to
continued degradation of our water bodies.
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Summary
Half of NZ is managing to ECOSYSTEM HEALTH LIMITS.
Otago, Horizons, Hawkes Bay, Taupo, Rotorua are now
configuring systems to farming within N limits.
Canterbury sub zone limits are still based on nitrogen TOXICITY.
The Waikato Catchment will be bound by the Vision andStrategy for the Waikato River
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Resilient Farming for the Future
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Resilient Farming for the Future
Tomorrows
FarmsToday
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TOMORROWS FARMING TODAY
Upper Waikato catchment 25 farms/3 years
Increasing milk solids per hectare or per cow,stocking rate, N use, or total pasture harvested didnot correlate with higher profits in 2010-2012.
Keeping a low cost of production per kg MS hadthe biggest effect on return on capital.
Amongst the grouponly 3.5% of the variation inprofit could be explained by the variation in Nleaching.
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Strongest Performers
Strong MS per ha and per cow.
>85% of bodyweight as MS from high tonnage of
home grown feed
Low cost of production per kg MS.($3.22 -3.71)
Low management & staff costs per cow
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Volatilitymakes it hard work
WE NEED RESILIENT FARMING
+/- 25% change in milk price over three years
+/- 30% change in pasture harvested (non drought)
Drought (12-13) on some farms 40% drop in pastureharvested.
Changes to Overseer has made our job challenging
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The Treadmill of Marginal Returns
more marginal
and riskier
returns result
Profit $
More fertiliser + more feed
+ more cows do not always
lead to more and more
milk.
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INPUTS
h S
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The Sweet ZoneBusiness Indicators
Risk
Sweet Zone
Profit (ROC)
Cow Liveweight per Hectare
Production
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Jumping with out a plan can be planning to fail.
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Plan together for resilience + farming within
ecosystem health limits.
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