7/24/2007 SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt 1
Team Software Project (TSP)July 24, 2007
Cycle 2 Requirements,Standards
&Death Marches
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Due today
Cycle 2 Requirements:Cycle 2 Requirements
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Remaining Lectures Plan/Discussion
July 24 – Cycle 2 Requirements CompleteCycle 2 RequirementsDeath March Projects continuedProcess topics – Configuration Management -
July 31 – Cycle 2 Implementation CompleteSystem Test Plan BaselinedCycle 2 Design & ImplementationProcess topics – CMMI Details
August 7 – Cycle 2 Test CompleteCycle 2 Test CompleteOther topics TBD
August 14 - Course ReviewCycle 2 Post-Mortem CompleteCourse ReviewFinal
Death March Projects
From Death March by Edward Yourdon
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Death March
Odds of a software project delivering on its committed schedule, budget & capabilities is extremely poor
Average Project6-12 months behind schedule
50-100% over budget
But Why?
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How Do We Get Here?
Start:High risk factors:
• Optimism• Wishful thinking
Unrealistic schedule & budgetRealistic plan, but then it goes downhill
e.g. user adds requirements
Results:OvertimeWasted weekendsEmotional & physical burnout before the end
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Key Takeaway
Confronted with joining a Death March project,Recognize & understand your own motivations, soyou can make a rational decision to join the team or look elsewhere for your next job.
You always have options!
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Death March Defined
Project where an unbiased objective risk assessment (including technical, interpersonal & legal risks) determines the likelihood of failure at greater than 50%.
Death March projects are the norm, not the exception!
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Common Root Causes
Compressed schedule (e.g. < ½ time estimated by a rational process)½ Staff of what a comparable project typically requires½ Budget & associated resourcesTwice the functionality, feature & performance requirements given
schedule, staff & budget constraints
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Types of Death March ProjectsSize
Small< 10 people3-6 monthsMost common & greatest chance of success
How: small, tight knit, motivated group can totally sacrifice their personal lives, provided …They know the hardships (nights & weekends) will end in a few months
Medium20-30 people1-2 yearsLittle chance of success
Large100-300 people3-5 yearsNo chance of success
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Reasons
Politics … ugly politics!Naïve promisesHysterical Optimism
e.g. Everyone in organization desperately wants to believe that a complex project, never before completed in < 3 years, can somehow be finished in 9 months.
Naïve optimism of youthNo problem, we can do it in a weekend!
Start-up mentality of fledgling, entrepreneurial companiesIntense competition
MarketsTechnologiesGovernment regulations
Unexpected &/or unplanned crises
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Questions?
Why would anyone in his/her right mind agree to work on a death march project?
If a colleague of yours was to take on the task of managing a death march project, what is the one thing you would advise him/her to do?
To not do?
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Reasons for signing up
High Risk / High Reward (e.g. Microsoft example)“Mt Everest” syndrome
For the challenge!Noble failures may promise glory even if not successful (e.g. Go)But watch for … pre-determined failures and “so what” value props
UnemploymentPre-requisite of promotion or future advancementBankruptcyRevenge!Escape normal company bureaucracy (e.g. skunkworks, Apple’s Mac)*
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Politics
The often internally conflicting interrelationships among people in a society.
Intrigue or maneuvering within a political unit or group in order to gain control.
Source: The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition
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Politics
Politics are normalDeath March politics tend to be more intensive & unhealthy
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Identifying Stakeholders
Why?Need to know friend from foe
Owner (potential friend)CustomerShareholdersStakeholdersChampions
Probably more important to project’s success than any technology or methodology
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Death March Project Types
Happiness GaugeWould you do this again?
Mission ImpossibleHigh team morale, thrive on challenge, dream of rewards of success
KamikazeGo type project, happiness derived from technology or team dynamics
UglyLow team morale, heavy duty politics
SuicideEveryone doomed, everyone miserable
UglySuicide
MissionImpossible
Kamikaze
Hap
pine
ss
Success ProbabilityLow
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Negotiations
Negotiations at start of projects tend to be irrationalWhy?
Negotiations at 1-2 months prior to deadline tend to be more rationalCustomer realizes original deadline, budget & functionality won’t be achievedBut, it’s too late for some project members (e.g. project leader)
“You need to understand your own management’s negotiating stance, if they love to play roll over, you have to keep them well away from the project.”
Doug Scott
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Mitigation Tactics
Commercial Estimation Tools50+ available (e.g. SLIM, Checkpoint, Estimacs)Best estimates, +/- 10%, but Death March projects typically off by 1000%!
Systems Dynamics ModelsPrediction of impact from constraint changes
e.g. Overtime: initially output increases, then errors increase & output decreases
Prototyping & TimeboxingAcceptable Trade-offs
Pose alternatives80/20 rule“everybody wants things good, wants them fast & wants them cheap … pick two”
Balancing Time, Resources, Capability10% change in one variable, change another variable 10%What happens if greater than 10% change?
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Negotiation Games
Negotiation is a gameSafety factor in most projects is?But, for Death March projects …
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Basic Negotiation Games
Doubling & add someBosses know this one, so they halve it.But, actually sound logic behind this one
Reverse DoublingClient / customer gets one estimateDevelopment team another
Price is Right? (or Guess the # I’m thinking of)Benefits for boss?
Double Dummy SpitThe X Plus GameSpanish Inquisition
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Advanced Negotiation Games
Low Bid / What are they prepared to payGotcha!
Smoke & Mirrors / Blinding with science (GIGO rule)False Precision
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Tactics
Not playing along is risky, but negotiation games can be counteredFirst, recognize the game
e.g. Price is Right, response “what do you think is a good estimate”
DelayUse data, sound estimation practices & comparable examples
You are leading a Death March Project
How do you survive?
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People
Choose your own team (if possible)Superstars?Well honed Mission Impossible teamWell prepared mere mortalsPot luck
Prepare for some overtimePreferably short sprints
Reward the team well if project succeedsFocus on building a loyal, cohesive & cooperative team
CommitmentMotivationRewards
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Teams
Open & honest CommunicationAssume no secrets & you won’t get burnedShare everything you canFor stuff you can’t share, say so!
Remember the Peopleware lessonsYou need every productivity improving factor you can get
Overall,Talented people,Cohesive teams &Decent working conditions give you the greatest chance of success
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Death March Approaches
Key:You can’t do everything, so …Don’t put together a plan or processes that assume you can(e.g. waterfall)
Solution:Triage!
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Requirements Management
Ultimately a crisis will occur & reality will hitSeveral scenarios could occur:
Fire project managerRenegotiate scheduleRenegotiate functionality (at which point most WIP gets thrown away)
Alternatively, plan at start80/20 Rule
Key is to choose the “right” 20%
Approach:Prioritize (subtly) requirements into must do, should do, could doAt start, identify what will ultimately be thrown away & avoid spending energy on those
items
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Death March Processes
Back to basicsManage requirements
Initial baselineChanges – high threshold & very visible
Don’t try out new tools & processesAgree on & formalize some important processes, then follow them
e.g. source code control, change management, requirements managementLeave other processes ad hoc
Pay careful attention to risk managemente.g. Top 10 list
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