Kym LennoxFebruary 2011Urban Transport World 2011 – Targets for Resilient Cities
Urban Transport World 2011Targets for Resilient CitiesApproaches for integrating land use and transport planning
Presented by Kym LennoxFebruary 2011
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Outline
IntroductionAn unsustainable futureAn alternativeTargetsFrameworkConclusion
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Introduction
Resilient city• Sustainable in its political economy
• Capable of handling economic and environmental shocks
• Capable of timely response to changes in the underlyingassumptions of the sustainability
Resilience is a vision not a target
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Introduction
Sustainable Political Economy• Constantly improving productivity
• A medium-to-long term structurally balanced publicsector budget
• Institutional stability
The key is investing in the right social andphysical infrastructure at the right time
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
An unsustainable future
Not planning for the known is unsustainable• Transport will remain oil dependant beyond 2050
• Development land will be progressively more expensive
• The developed world will have a median age over 50
• The price of energy will more than double in real terms
• The population will not stabilise before 2050• The operational life of today’s planning extends past 2050
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
An unsustainable future
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
An unsustainable future
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Introduction
Sydney’s last 40year
performance inTransport
Infrastructure(~$18B 2010$)
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
An unsustainable future
Over the past 40 years less than $200 per year per head hasbeen invested into public transport infrastructure in Sydney.
Up to 1% of GDP will be lost every year to carpark infrastructure investment
The cost of the infrastructure to park the additional vehiclefleet in 2050 will cost at least $400 per year per head for thenext 40 years and consume up to 100 km2 of green field landacross Greater Sydney.
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
An alternative
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Switzerland Japan Germany United Kingdom China Australia United States
per Capita Rail passenger Km
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
An alternative
Land use and transport planning implications• Existing housing stock ill suited to future needs
• Planning controls need to respond to the context of thesite not to barriers and boundaries
• Strategic opportunity and whole of government cost andsocial benefit needs to inform the decision process
Hiding from the future will not stop it occurring.
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
If this is whatSydney needs,how will it befunded, what
land useplanning musthave occurred
and whattriggers
implementationstages.
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Targets
What happens if…• Social values for home ownership change
• Public transport demand grows twice as fast
• Carbon is priced at $100 per tonne in 2020• The next 20 years is a second baby boom
Responding requires transparency andconsistency in policy
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Framework – The 4Es
Express the targets
Establish the external benefits
Embed the role of the Stakeholders
Ensure Certainty
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Framework
Express the targets
Government policy should define and express targets thatover time shift land-use to limit the resource intensity of thetransport demand.
Targets must be measurable and aspirational
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Framework
Establish the external benefits
Policy and the public sector must establish the externalbenefits and clearly define the roles of stakeholders in anytarget.
A clear role for government provides a certainty of theeconomics and defines their participation as regulator and
financial contributor.
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Framework
Embed the role of the Stakeholders
Clarity is key to risk taking. Roles can not be defined by whatanother stakeholder is not doing. The policy and regulatoryframework must clearly express and embed the roles andtheir communication obligations.
What is: the role of each department? The role of council?The communication to the community? The controls to
ensure achieving the strategic goal?
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Framework
Ensure Certainty
Certainty connects plans with implementation. Funding willnot be maintained without certainty. Certainty is not rigidityin the face of a changing world, it is keeping to the strategicgoal.
Transparency and participation in the decision makingprocess provides certainty through predictable change.
Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector
Conclusion
Sustainability is achievable only through aninstitutional focus on the structure of
the urban form and transport
Kym LennoxFebruary 2011Urban Transport World 2011 – Targets for Resilient Cities
Kym Lennox
Australian Practice Lead
The Tipping Point Institute
Level 1, 341 George Street
Sydney NSW 2000
P: 02 9210 4642
W: www.ttpi.org
Questions
Kym LennoxFebruary 2011Urban Transport World 2011 – Targets for Resilient Cities
About the Tipping Point InstituteThe Tipping Point Institute (TTPI) is an established consultancy that focuses on developing anddisseminating responses to the carbon constrained reality of the 21st century. TTPI provides its clientsclarity and context for their participation in a sustainable future. TTPI’s focus is to:• define the targets through what we term ‘carbon economics’;• deliver outcomes with best practice in infrastructure optimisation and planning;• support public sector procurement and tender responses; and• keep on target through programme governance.
Society and the economy are at a tipping point such that the consequences of people’s actions andinactions will ripple through many generations to follow. TTPI seeks to be an active participant asAustralia and the world manage the next stage towards a sustainable future.
The organisation’s strategic goals are therefore to:1. Integrate sustainability and consideration of carbon constraints into the decision processes of
Government, the private sector and every individual.2. Lead and disseminate a structured leadership that is apolitical.3. Promote and improve best practice methods that address the complexity of today’s challenges.
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