Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Ulf Ranhagen Professor/Architect
Sustainable Municipality Project &
SymbioCity Approach 2.0 –
two interconnected Swedish R&D Projects
EU Special Sweden Week May 2013
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
SwedenConsiderable environmental improvements since the
Stockholm Environmental Summit 1972
Strong political leadership
Economic instruments – carbon dioxide taxes
energy tax relief on renewables etc
Triple helix collaboration
Integrated planning
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Reduced dependence on oil for heating and
electricity production in Sweden since the 70’s
Source: www.symbiocity.org
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Swedish ”energy hero” – district heating and district cooling
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Successful examples of low-energy and passive buildings
New buildings without heating
systems – Lindås 15kWh/sqm
Renovation of existing apartments
– Brogården, Alingsås
Buildings from 216 kWh/sqm to 85
kWh/sqm
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm
Gårdsten, GothenburgR&D projects – Institutional exp
Western harbour/Bo 01 Malmö
To gather and apply Swedish knowledge
within sustainable urban development
in an international context
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Stepwise Development of the Swedish SymbioCity Concept
Sustainable City Concept
WWSD Johannesburg 2002
SymbioCity Sustainability by
Sweden
2007-
The Sustainable City Approach – Sida
Manual
2006 -R&D Projects
SymbioCityApproach
2012- (STC /SKL)
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
8
Spatial Planning
An instrument to push on the development of energy
efficient measures in the built environemnt, to take
advantage of reneweble energy and to facilitate
environmental transportation modes
An Arena for active dialogues among all stakeholders
involved in the process
A Tool for illuminating conflicts and syneriges
A Prerequiste for preventation of problems and for an
efficient and sustainable design and implementation
process
The Sustainable Municipality Project (Swedish Energy Agency)
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Planning prevents environmental problems
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
ÖP / FÖP, STRATEGIC EIA/SEA
DP / EIA DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIC PLANNING
PROGRAMME
DESIGN
TENDERING
CONSTRUCTION
OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE
agreements
REGIONAL PLANNING , STRATEGIC EIA (SEA)
Sustainability
programme
TH
E P
UB
LIC
SE
CT
OR
TH
E P
RIV
AT
E S
EC
TO
R
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Strategy
Impact Assessment
Key issues
Objectives
External factors Internal factorsAnalysis
MINDMAP
BACKCASTING
Strategic choice
SWOT
Structured
BRAINSTORMING
Radar graph
Effect profile
Indicators
MCA
Define and organise the
sustainability review
The term
sustainability
Source: Sustainable Municipality Project. KTH Ulf Ranhagen
Scenarios – Future images - Alternatives
Step 1 Application of a systematic and flexible approach
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Step 2 Form a cross-sectoral project organisation
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Economic issues
Social issuesEnergy
Environment
TrafficSpatial/Urban
planning
Step 2 Inter- och transdisciplinary collaboration in all phases of planning,
design, construction, implementation and operation
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Participatory Approach – Action-oriented R&D
Step 3 Formulate a schedule and a work plan
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 201316
Common workshops with representatives from several
departments
Workshops within a specific department
Step 4 Work in a workshop format – establish a forum for dialogue
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Step 5 Develop a local interpretation of sustainability
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Step 5 Develop a local interpretation of sustainability
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Stadsanalys
Urban morphology analysis at workshops and in the detailed
comprehensive plan. Sala municipality
Step 6 Prepare an external and internal conditions analysis for
selcted planning area
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
RESIDENTIAL TOWN
The urban structure (the urban morphology) has large imortance for the
options of achieving an otimal interplay between energu efficiency and
renewable energy supply
Step 6 Prepare an external and internal conditions analysis for
selcted planning area
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
21
Dalsjöfors – annual rings related to urban structures and energy
performance
Step 6 Prepare an external and internal conditions analysis for
selected planning area
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
22
Step 7 Formulate key issues and goals concerning sustainable
development based on step 6 (structured brainstorming)
KEY ISSUES
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Back-casting methodology
VISION
1
2
3
Short term Medium term Long term
Goal level Alternative strategy:
fast-slow
Alternative strategy:
slow-fast
PRESENT
Vision without action is a daydream
Action without vision is a nightmare
Step 8 Develop spatial scenarios
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
24
Concentrated city centre
Widespread city centre
Limited
build-out
of infra
FÖP Ulricehamn scenariomatris
SCENARIOMATRIX – an application of the strategic choice megthodology
Step 8 Develop spatial scenarios
Significant
build-out
of infra
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 201325
Step 8 Develop spatial scenarios
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Step 9 Evaluate future images from a sustainability perspective
Ranking diagramme
Value rose – spider diagramme MCA – multi-criteria analysis
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 201327
Hand- and computerdrawn perspective
for illustration of the holistic view but also
energy aspects
Step 10 Develop, presente and visualise a selected future image
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Energi och teknisk försörjningBefintligt
fjärrvärmenät
Graphic representation of the coverage of district heating heating system as a basis for a
discussion of future development of the energy system
1) Further extension 2) local district heating system 3) low energy or passive buildings not
connected with the district heating system
Profound comprehensive plan for the urban centre of Nyköping Municipality Nyköpings
kommun.
Step 11 Conduct a detailed survey of energy and traffic systems
including energy use
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 201329
Pilot study in the City of Lund in
southern Sweden
Transect through LUND
analysis of the realtionship
beteween the urban structure
and energy use
(Dr Elisabetta Troglio)
Step 11 Conduct a detailed survey of energy and traffic systems
including energy use
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Heat density map related to
different urban typologies in the
municipality of Ulricehamn
Profound comprehensive
planning for the urban centre
of Ulricehamn
Step 11 Conduct a detailed survey of energy and traffic systems
including energy use
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Micro climate
Heat Density Map in Skellefteå in northern Sweden
Air qualityNoise from energy production
Step 12 Document the microclimate and local environmental effects
of heating/cooling/electricity and transport
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Step 12 Document the microclimate and local environmental effects
of heating/cooling/electricity and transport – thematic layer analysis
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Step 13 Appreciate the potential for energy econimisation and
renewable energy supply
Heat pumps
desirable/probable within
15 years perspective
Local dsitrict heating based on biofuels
Individual system based
on biofuel
Oil
Electrictiy from grid
Solar combined with
energy storage
Present situation
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Principles behind the energy scenarios
Step 14 Develop scenarios and future images for
energy and transport
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
FOCUS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY
FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY
Scenario A : Low energy buildings including passive houses and plus houses
Scenario B : Moderate energy efficiency & partial conversion to renewable energy
Scenario C : District heating from biofuel and or waste to energy
A CB
Step 14 Develop scenarios and future images for
energy and transport
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Step 15 Develop spatial future images with a focus on energy issues
for heating/cooling/electricity and transport
Profound comprehensive plan for Köpmanholmen in Örnsköldsvik Municipality
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Ulf
Ran
hage
n
Feb
37
Design of energy artefacts (Dr Björn Ekelund)
Power lines passing by an university area
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Jag tycker att kraftledningar
representar något positivt
Jag tycker att kraftledningar
påverkar upplevelsen av
omgivningen negativt
Jag undviker att vistas i närheten
av kraftledningar
Jag tycker att kraftledningar skall
grävas ner i marken
Instämmer inte alls Instämmer till fullo
Generellt Befintlig Förslag
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Representerar för mig teknik
Representerar för mig konst
Representerar för mig nytta
Representerar för mig nöje
Representerar för mig funktion
Representerar för mig form
Instämmer inte alls Instämmer till fullo
Generellt Befintlig Förslag
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Nu A B C
GW
h/å
r Kolkondenskraftverk
Kärnkraft / kolkondens
Dalsjöfors
Carbon dioxide
emissions
ton/year
Enscen –
Dalsjöfors
Borås
Primary energy
GWh/year Koldioxidutsläpp
0
5
10
15
20
Nu A B C
kto
n/å
r
Kolkondensel
Fossila bränslen
A low energy buildings
B Moderate energy efficiency
C District heating – minimum req for
energy efficiency
Step 16 Evaluate and Assess the consequences
of the spatial future images
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
TranScen
Calculation models for planners in
order to estimate total amount of
carbon dioxide emissions for
different transportation scenarios
related to urban plans on different
levels
Step 16 Evaluate and Assess the consequences
of the spatial future images
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Modell för beräkning av energianvändning och koldioxidutsläpp vid olika scenarier (under utveckling) 2011-09-13
Förutsättningar 50 000 resenärer 30 km/pers,dag 1 500 000 pkm/dag Ändra värden i vita rutor!
Nollalternativ
bil buss GC * enligt NTM - Nätverket för Transporter och Miljö, lokaltåg, kapacitet 174 pers
drivmedel bensin diesel ** Ange med hur många procent energianvändningen väntas minska genom teknikutveckling
BV inköp kolkondens *** minskning genom anv. av drivmedel/energislag som ger lägre nettoutsläpp av CO2
fördelning 80% 5% 5% 0% 10% Schablonvärden: etanol för bussar 80%, etanol (E85) 70 %, biogas 95%, RME 60%
medelbeläggning ant pers 1,3 15 61 61
Teknikförbättr. energianvändn.** 0% 0% 0% 0% MWh/dag förändr kg/dag förändr
CO2-minskning, drivmedel*** 0% 0% 0% 0% Nollalternativ 703 197 293
tot energianv., MWh/dag 703 Scenario 1 406 -42% 99 833 -49%
tot koldioxidutsläpp, kg/dag 197 293 Scenario 2 429 -39% 112 619 -43%
Scenario 1 resandeförändring 0% 1 500 000 pkm/dag Scenario 3 571 -19% 156 554 -21%
Koll bil buss GC fakta om aktuell kommun - avgränsningar mm
fördelning 30% 25% 25% 0% 20%
medelbeläggning ant pers 1,3 15 61 61
Teknikförbättr. energianvändn.** ange med positivt tal hur stor minskning som är målet
CO2-minskning, drivmedel*** Mål: Energi 60% CO2 80%
tot energianv., MWh/dag 406 -42%
tot koldioxidutsläpp, kg/dag 99 833 -49%
Scenario 2 resandeförändring 0% 1 500 000 pkm/dag
GC Distans bil buss GC
fördelning 40% 15% 15% 0% 30%
medelbeläggning ant pers 1,3 15 61 61
Teknikförbättr. energianvändn.**
CO2-minskning, drivmedel***
tot energianv., MWh/dag 429 -39%
tot koldioxidutsläpp, kg/dag 112 619 -43%
Scenario 3 resandeförändring 0% 1 500 000 pkm/dag
Miljöbil bil buss GC
fördelning 70% 10% 10% 0% 10%
medelbeläggning ant pers 1,5 15 61 61
Teknikförbättr. energianvändn.**
CO2-minskning, drivmedel***
tot energianv., MWh/dag 571 -19%
tot koldioxidutsläpp, kg/dag 156 554 -21%
el*
spårtrafik
EXEMPEL
spårtrafik
spårtrafik
spårtrafik
Energi CO2
Kollektivtrafik
GCGC
GCGC
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Nollalternativ Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
mål Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
minskning energi & CO2
energi CO2
Antalet pkm påverkar bara MWh/dag och kg CO2/dag i gula tabellen. De procentuella förändringarna är alltså oberoende av antal pkm i Förutsättningar
Eventuella förändringar av befolkningsmänd redovisas i antagande om resandeförändring.
Synpunkter, förbättringsförslag och exempel på användning
mottages tacksamt
magnussonMiljökonsult och Utbildning AB
0768 237 230
Calculation model based on modal split and other factors
Step 16 Evaluate and Assess the consequences
of the spatial future images
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
nuläge 2030 trolig 2030 mål 2050
utsläpp enl miljömål
kg co2 per dag vid oförändrad bränsleslag
Kg co2 per per dag vid 50% förbättring
Kg co2 per dag vid 80% förbättring
Nuläge
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
nuläge 2030 trolig 2030 mål 2050
utsläpp enl miljömål
kg co2 per person vid oförändrad
bränsleslag
Kg co2 per person vid 50% förbättring
Kg co2 per person vid 80% förbättring
Nuläge
TRANSCEN Österåker. Achievment of targets on municipal and individual level
Step 16 Evaluate and Assess the consequences
of the spatial future images
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Focus on public
trpt
30/50/20
CO2 present
situation
85/10/5
Focus on
walking&cycling
+ telecommuting
40/30/30
Focus on
environmental cars
70/10/20
> 50% reduced energy use in alla scenrios
75%-95% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in
all scenarios
Results from use of TRANSCEN tool in the pilot phase
Step 16 Evaluate and Assess the consequences
of the spatial future images
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Step 17 Document hard and soft measures for
implementing planning measures
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 201344
Steg 18 Develop forms of collaboration between various
actors in all phases (the PBA+)
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Step 17 Document hard and soft measures for
implementing planning measures
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Increased awareness and
change of life-style is a
prerequisite for success in the
energy and climate efforts
A new way bof thining is necessary to solve the problems that we have aroused
by the old way of thinking (A.Einstein)
Step 19 Develop physical and digital arenas for planning,
expereience feed-back and follow-up
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
The ecological footprint should be reduced by 80% for long
term survival
Steg 20 Develop a model for implementing and monitoring
the planning case
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Steg 20 Develop a model for implementing and monitoring
the planning case
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Sol- na Ving- åker Bo- rås Ulrice- hamn Örnsk- öldsvik
GW
h/å
r
Solvärme
Vindkraft
Vattenkraft
Skogsbränsle
Energiskog på åkermark
Bruttoenergitillförsel idag
8400
Indicators: Estimated potential of renewable energy resources in relation to the
present energy supply (KWh renewables / KWh totalt, ha renewablest/ha total etc)
Source: : Dag Henning, Optensys
Steg 20 Develop a model for implementing and monitoring
the planning case
Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013
Steg 20 Develop a model for implementing and monitoring
the planning case
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