ARMYFORESIGHTARMYFORESIGHTJohn J. Fittipaldi, CEP, Senior Fellow
Army Environmental Policy Institute (AEPI)
2007 Joint Services Environmental Management Conference Columbus, Ohio 21 May 2007
PURPOSE
• Fulfill charter responsibilities• Position the Army to anticipate
emerging environmental issues• Towards achieving sustainability
AGENDA
• AEPI Charter• Background on emerging issues
analysis• AEPI issue scanning, trends analysis
and foresight process• Status• Partnership opportunities
AEPI CHARTER
The AEPI mission is to assist the Secretariat in the development of proactive policies and strategies to address environmental issues that may have significant future impacts on the Army.
ISSUES MANAGEMENT CURVE
ManagementManagementStagesStages
MaintenanceMaintenanceStagesStages
EarlyEarlyAwareness &Awareness &ExpectationsExpectations
Societal &Societal &PoliticalPolitical
DevelopmentsDevelopments
Lobbying &Lobbying &LegislativeLegislative
ActionsActions
RegulationRegulation&&
LitigationLitigation
TimeTime
Publ
ic A
war
enes
sPu
blic
Aw
aren
ess
ISSUES MANAGEMENT CURVEPu
blic
Aw
aren
ess
Publ
ic A
war
enes
s
TimeTime
Global Water ScarcityGlobal Water Scarcity
Control Resistant PathogensControl Resistant Pathogens
Light PollutionLight Pollution
ZeroZero--Point EnergyPoint Energy
EMFEMF
Chlorinated CompoundsChlorinated Compounds
ISO 14000ISO 14000
Endocrine DisruptorsEndocrine Disruptors
ZeroZero--DischargeDischarge
Noise PollutionNoise Pollution
ParticulatesParticulates
Chemical DemilitarizationChemical Demilitarization
Depleted UraniumDepleted Uranium
Environmental EquityEnvironmental Equity
Pollution PreventionPollution Prevention
Early AwarenessEarly Awareness
Lobbying &Lobbying &LegislationLegislation
Regulation & LitigationRegulation & Litigation
SustainabilitySustainability
Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security
EMERGING ISSUES CONTINUUM
Issue scanningTrends analysisForesightForecastingBackcastingScenario Building
• Futures
ISSUE SCANNING
• AEPI Fellows regularly track research interests and thrust area relevance
• Contract efforts to support systematic scanning:– American Council of UN Universities trends monitoring,
monthly scanning report analyzing topics with military implications.
– LMI systematic scanning to support foresight process with regular topical brochures via AEPI website.
– CTC special issue papers considered for foresight process.
EMERGING ISSUES
Monthly Report:
FORESIGHT PURPOSE
• Mechanism for improving and focusing organizational foresight on key environment, safety, and occupational health (ESOH) issues.
REGULAR INFORMATION
SHAPESTHINKING &
ACTIONS
WHAT IS FORESIGHT?
• Intelligence gathering for emerging issues• Directions, not predictions• Looking to the future
– the Army “strategic scout”• A charter responsibility of AEPI
Foresight Goal: Sustainability through improved ESOH policy decisions today,
preventing trends from becoming tomorrow’s issues
FORESIGHT METHODOLOGY
Regular cross-group working and Consultative Team sessions to discuss research, identify trends and confirm directions
Participatory—shaping topicsilluminating intersection where trends overlap with current Army ESOH policy/doctrine, from many perspectives
Vision-building—leading policy improvementidentifying policy gaps and need for improvement; crafting recommendations
Facilitated annual foresight Round Table with wider Army and scientific community to discuss emerging issues, possible scenarios, and policy implications
Regular topical papers to stimulate discussion in wider Army community
Systematic—scanningCollecting trend data and analyzing for ESOH policy implications, leveraging previous AEPI efforts
BIBLIOMETRIC SEARCH
• Subject Matter Experts are identified during a search by LMI Librarians, to find an academic who will help craft the white paper “thought piece” to guide the bulletin
FORESIGHT CONSULTATIVE TEAM
• Purpose:– Assist in refining the foresight process to accomplish
objectives and ensure Army relevance– Provide perspectives from individual organizations,
extensive background research, and wealth of experience to clearly identify topics
– Shape topics and prepare for the annual workshop to wider audience
• Membership:– ERDC/CERL– Army Engineer School– US Military Academy, West Point– HQ USACE, Strategic Planning– Army Research Office– Army Environmental Center– Army Environmental Policy Institute
TOPIC EVOLUTION
• Climate Change has evolved as a topic…• Began with:
– Military Responsibility in Natural Disaster Response and Recovery
– Military Response to Resource-related Conflicts– Market-based Strategies to Manage Carbon
Emissions– Military Role as a Leader in Policy, Strategy,
Technology and Practice• Now framed as:
– Climate Change and Army Sustainability (May ’07)
TOPICAL FORESIGHT BROCHURES
EMERGING TOPICS
• Climate Change and Army Sustainability– Subject of AEPI’s May 07 bulletin
EMERGING TOPICS• Sustainability at Base Camps (?)
– Stability Operations (Aug 06 bulletin)– Location-appropriate technology– Indigenous vs. Modular
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/images/iraq-fobs-2005apr21.jpg
EMERGING TOPICS• Clean, Abundant and Safe Water
– Decaying Infrastructure (home and abroad)– Scarcity amidst high-density populations– Using nanotechnology for waste water treatment
(revisiting Nov 05 bulletin)
EMERGING TOPICS• Ecosystem Genomics and Army Land
Management– Detect environmental stressors– Optimize bio-remediation efforts– Detect subtle changes at molecular level long before
detection at the macroscopic scale.– Enhance land management on training/testing lands.
• Genetic engineering– Change (human) physical features, – Extend lifespan, Merge brains with
computers and bodies with robots.– Implications for warriors, friend and foe?
ESOH issues?
COMMUNICATION PLAN
• Regular release on AEPI website• Publicize via existing email distribution• Publish paper copies for wide
distribution and discussion• Roundtables and workshop to shape
and disseminate
PARTNERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
• Army Consultative Team meetings to address specific topics as needed
• Annual Round Table to reach a wider audience within and outside the Army:– July 24-25, 2007 in McLean, VA
• Feedback via AEPI website, or POC to continue to shape topics and process– Peer review and Surveys
SUCCESS METRICS
• Pre-publication audience surveys– identifying target audience wants/needs
• Targeted external peer review• Post-publication targeted surveys
– ensure wants/needs met
Continuous improvement
SUMMARY
• Foresight process is essential AEPI activity• Process is continuously refined to ensure
strategic relevance • Foresight presents organizational opportunity to
support the Soldier, search for sustainability, and shape our future
“The wise man must remember that while he is a descendant of the past, he is a parent of the future.”
Herbert Spencer (1820-1903)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• LMI– Mr. Matt Phillip– Mr. Chris Werle– Mr. Lisa Watts – Mr. Fred Boecher– Ms. Erica Rohr– Ms. Roja Kolachina– Mr. Steve Stone
*Mr. Bill Goran, ERDC/CERL*Dr. Rebecca Johnson, AES*COL Gene Palka, USMA *Mr. Lindy Wolner, USACE *Dr. Kurt Preston, ARO*Ms Nancy Natoli, AEC*Mr. John Fittipaldi, AEPI
•Consultative Group
•NDCEE-CTC–Mr. David Eady–Ms. Elizabeth Keysar–Mr. Roger Morin
QUESTIONS & COMMENTS
John J. Fittipaldi, CEPSenior Fellow
Army Environmental Policy Institute (AEPI)
703-604-2307
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