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Page 1: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

SUPPLY ELASTICITIESESTIMATION

ARGENTINAWHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN

Page 2: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

ARGENTINA - WHEAT: AREA and PRICES

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Page 3: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

ARGENTINA - CORN: AREA and PRICES

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Page 4: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

ARGENTINA - SUNFLOWER: AREA and PRICES

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Page 5: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

ARGENTINA - SOYBEAN - AREA and PRICES

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Page 6: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

Argentina. Wheat. Price vs Area. 1959/60 - 04/05

1960 2006

1960 1983 2006

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Area (x 1000 Ha)

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Page 7: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

1960 2005

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Area (x1000) Ha

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Argentina. Corn. Price vs Area. 1959/60 - 04/05

Page 8: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

1960 2005

1960 1983 2005

1000 2000 3000 4000

Area (x1000) Ha

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$ (

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0)

Argentina. Sunflower. Price vs Area. 1959/60 - 04/05

Page 9: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

ARGENTINA - SOYBEAN - AREA vs PRICES

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Page 10: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

1965 2005

1965 1985 2005

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Argentina. Soybean. Price vs Area. 1964/65 - 04/05

Page 11: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

ARGENTINA - SOYBEAN - AREA: LEVEL and LOG

y = 0.17t + 3.62

R2 = 0.86

y = 37.4e0.17t

R2 = 0.86

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Page 12: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

24

68

10Ln

Soj

a y

Tend

enci

as

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010year

Ln(Area Sembrada Soja) Tendencia lineal soja 1974-1995

Tendencia lineal soja 1965-1973 Tendencial lineal soja 1996-2005

Page 13: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

Dinámica de la oferta agropecuaria

• Los modelos econométricos de oferta agropecuaria se han formulado en general a partir de series temporales generando estimaciones derivadas de la utilización tanto del modelo desarrollado por Nerlove (1958), o del modelo de Griliches (1960) para estimaciones de oferta agregada.

Page 14: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

Enfoque clásico: Expectativas adaptativas y ajuste parcial

• Xt* = a + bPe

xt (1)

• Pext - Pe

x, t-1 = (Px, t-1 - Pex, t-1)

• Pext = Px, t-1 + ( 1 - ) Pe

x, t-1

• Por sustitución recurrente, puede escribirse:

• Pext = ( 1 - ) Pe

x, t-1 (2)

• Sustituyendo (2) en (1) resulta:

• Xt= a/ + b/ Px, t-1 + ( 1 - ) Xt-1 (3)

Page 15: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

• Siguiendo una lógica similar a la empleada para el modelo de expectativas de precios, se puede escribir:

• Xt = X* t + (1-) Xt-1 (4)

• Donde (0 < < 1) es el coeficiente de ajuste parcial

Page 16: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

• Suponiendo (modelo “naive”) que el precio esperado es el precio rezagado Px,

t-1 y sustituyendo (4) en (1):

• Xt = 1/ a + 1/ b Px, t-1 + (1-) Xt-1 (5)

Page 17: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

(1) (2) Ln(Area Sembrada

Soja) Ln(Area Sembrada

Soja) Ln(Area Sembrada

Soja) Ln(Area Sembrada

Soja) Ln Precio Soja(t-1) 0.196 0.197 0.324 0.331

(1.79)* (1.77)* (2.24)** (2.24)** Ln Area Sembrada Soja(t-1) 0.735 0.740 0.769 0.779

(8.74)*** (8.46)*** (8.85)*** (8.57)*** Tendencia lineal soja 1965-1973 0.335 0.335 0.284 0.281

(3.19)*** (3.14)*** (2.56)** (2.49)** Tendencia lineal soja 1974-1995 0.231 0.230 0.188 0.185

(2.54)** (2.50)** (1.98)* (1.91)* Tendencial lineal soja 1996-2005 0.296 0.296 0.247 0.245

(3.32)*** (3.27)*** (2.59)** (2.53)** Dummy 1974-1995=1 0.551 0.547 0.495 0.486

(3.61)*** (3.52)*** (3.17)*** (3.05)*** Ln Precio de gasoil(t-1) -0.031 -0.054

(0.24) (0.42) Ln Precio Maiz(t-1) -0.247 -0.257

(1.34) (1.36) Ln Precio Novillo(t-1)

Constant -1.270 -1.339 -0.663 -0.759

(1.77)* (1.71)* (0.79) (0.86) Observations 40 40 40 40 R-Cuadrado 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.996

R-Cuadrado Adj 0.995 0.995 0.995 0.995 D-W 2.000 2.001 2.042 2.043

Elasticidad Soja-Soja 0.741 0.758 1.403 1.493 P-Value ADF Residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Elasticidad Soja-Novillo Elasticidad Soja-Maiz -1.069 -1.159

Elasticidades de Largo Plazo para Soja

Page 18: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

(3) (4) Ln(Area

Sembrada Soja)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Soja)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Soja)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Soja) Ln Precio Soja(t-1) 0.176 0.177 0.265 0.273

(1.69) (1.68) (1.88)* (1.90)* Ln Area Sembrada

Soja(t-1) 0.751 0.758 0.773 0.784

(9.45)*** (9.19)*** (9.32)*** (9.05)*** Tendencia lineal soja

1965-1973 0.294 0.292 0.262 0.258

(2.92)*** (2.87)*** (2.46)** (2.39)** Tendencia lineal soja

1974-1995 0.217 0.216 0.189 0.185

(2.54)** (2.49)** (2.08)** (2.01)* Tendencial lineal soja

1996-2005 0.275 0.274 0.243 0.240

(3.26)*** (3.21)*** (2.67)** (2.61)** Dummy 1974-1995=1 0.483 0.476 0.450 0.440

(3.30)*** (3.20)*** (2.99)*** (2.86)*** Ln Precio de gasoil(t-

1) -0.050 -0.064

(0.40) (0.52) Ln Precio Maiz(t-1) -0.170 -0.181

(0.94) (0.99) Ln Precio Novillo(t-1) 0.376 0.380 0.343 0.346

(2.30)** (2.29)** (2.05)** (2.04)* Constant -1.047 -1.155 -0.650 -0.762

(1.54) (1.56) (0.81) (0.91) Observations 40 40 40 40 R-Cuadrado 0.996 0.996 0.997 0.997

R-Cuadrado Adj 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.996 D-W 1.899 1.908 1.945 1.958

Elasticidad Soja-Soja 0.704 0.732 1.166 1.261 P-Value ADF

Residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Elasticidad Soja-Novillo

1.509 1.572 1.510 1.602

Elasticidad Soja-Maiz -0.747 -0.836

Page 19: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

Elasticidades de Corto Plazo para Soja(Usando Eq 3 y Eq 4)

(3) (4) DLn(Area

Sembrada Soja) DLn(Area

Sembrada Soja) DLn(Area

Sembrada Soja) DLn(Area

Sembrada Soja) D(Ln Precio

Soja(t-1)) 0.161 0.143 0.295 0.277

(1.31) (1.19) (2.56)** (2.41)** D(Ln Precio Novillo(t-1))

0.293 0.331 0.450 0.471

(1.65) (1.89)* (3.05)*** (3.22)*** ECT(t-1) -0.071 -0.078 -1.119 -1.115

(3.08)*** (3.41)*** (6.20)*** (6.38)*** D(Ln Precio Gasoil(t-1))

0.310 0.131

(1.67) (0.89) D(Ln Precio Maiz(t-1))

-0.201 -0.182

(1.55) (1.40) Constant 0.192 0.185 0.031 0.025

Page 20: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

(1) (2) Ln(Area

Sembrada Trigo)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Trigo)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Trigo)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Trigo) Ln Precio Trigo(t-1) 0.144 0.195 0.147 0.178

(1.81)* (2.20)** (1.92)* (2.04)** Ln Area Sembrada Trigo(t-1) 0.469 0.452 0.450 0.442

(3.57)*** (3.44)*** (3.55)*** (3.45)*** lnpgasoil1 0.081 0.049

(1.27) (0.75) Ln Precio Novillo(t-1) -0.265 -0.238

(2.11)** (1.81)* Ln Precio Maiz(t-1)

Constant 3.863 3.852 3.982 3.964

(3.09)*** (3.10)*** (3.30)*** (3.27)*** Ln Precio Soja 1995-2005

Ln Precio Soja 1960-1994

Observations 46 46 46 46

R-squared 0.25 0.28 0.33 0.33 R-Cuadrado Adj 0.219 0.230 0.277 0.269

D-W 1.918 1.875 1.905 1.873 Elasticidad Trigo-Trigo 0.271 0.356 0.267 0.318 p-Value ADF residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 Elasticidad Trigo-Maiz

Elasticidad Trigo-Soja 1960-1995 Elasticidad Trigo-Soja 1995-2005

P-Value Wald Test Soja Elasticidad Trigo-Novillo -0.482 -0.425

Elasticidades de Largo Plazo para Trigo

Page 21: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

(3) (4) (5) Ln(Area

Sembrada Trigo)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Trigo)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Trigo)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Trigo)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Trigo)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Trigo) Ln Precio Trigo(t-1) 0.279 0.273 0.304 0.304 0.306 0.303

(2.91)*** (2.73)*** (3.13)*** (3.01)*** (2.57)** (2.52)** Ln Area Sembrada Trigo(t-1) 0.332 0.332 0.369 0.369 0.444 0.441

(2.50)** (2.47)** (2.74)*** (2.70)** (3.45)*** (3.38)*** lnpgasoil1 -0.019 -0.001 0.035

(0.24) (0.01) (0.48) Ln Precio Novillo(t-1) -0.232 -0.236

(1.73)* (1.72)* Ln Precio Maiz(t-1) -0.201 -0.171

(1.79)* (1.32) Constant 5.152 5.174 4.997 4.998 4.246 4.184

(4.26)*** (4.21)*** (4.04)*** (3.97)*** (3.43)*** (3.33)*** Ln Precio Soja 1995-2005 -0.138 -0.141 -0.185 -0.185

(1.50) (1.50) (2.05)** (2.00)* Ln Precio Soja 1960-1994 -0.145 -0.149 -0.193 -0.193

(1.64) (1.63) (2.23)** (2.15)** Observations 41 41 41 41 46 46

R-squared 0.42 0.42 0.37 0.37 0.31 0.31 R-Cuadrado Adj 0.338 0.319 0.301 0.281 0.257 0.243

D-W 2.159 2.175 2.243 2.244 2.083 2.034 Elasticidad Trigo-Trigo 0.418 0.410 0.483 0.482 0.550 0.542 p-Value ADF residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Elasticidad Trigo-Maiz -0.362 -0.306

Elasticidad Trigo-Soja 1960-1995 -0.207 -0.210 -0.294 -0.294 Elasticidad Trigo-Soja 1995-2005 -0.217 -0.223 -0.306 -0.306

P-Value Wald Test Soja 0.460 0.460 0.424 0.509 Elasticidad Trigo-Novillo -0.347 -0.354

Elasticidades de Largo Plazo para Trigo

Page 22: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

(3) (4) (5) DLn(Area

Sembrada Trigo)

DLn(Area Sembrada

Trigo)

DLn(Area Sembrada

Trigo)

DLn(Area Sembrada

Trigo)

DLn(Area Sembrada

Trigo)

DLn(Area Sembrada

Trigo) D(Ln Precio Trigo(t-1))

0.261 0.258 0.302 0.301 0.283 0.279

(3.91)*** (3.86)*** (4.32)*** (4.28)*** (3.56)*** (3.49)*** D(Ln Precio Soja 1965-1995(t-1))

0.081 0.069 -0.015 -0.021

(0.97) (0.82) (0.18) (0.25) D(Ln Precio Soja 1995-2005(t-1))

-0.044 -0.043 -0.019 -0.019

(0.32) (0.32) (0.13) (0.14) D(Ln Precio Novillo(t-1)

-0.409 -0.404

(3.87)*** (3.77)*** ect1 -1.219 -1.229 -1.340 -1.340 -1.105 -1.113

(5.88)*** (5.91)*** (6.19)*** (6.15)*** (4.77)*** (4.77)*** D(Ln Precio Gasoil(t-1))

0.054 0.080 0.117

(0.50) (0.71) (0.97) D(Ln Precio Maiz(t-1))

-0.063 -0.042

(0.66) (0.43) Constant 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.002 0.006 0.005

(0.13) (0.03) (0.25) (0.12) (0.34) (0.26) Observations 40 40 40 40 45 45

R-squared 0.62 0.63 0.58 0.58 0.44 0.45 R-Cuadrado

Adj 0.566 0.563 0.527 0.520 0.404 0.396

D-W 1.765 1.780 1.647 1.607 1.923 1.833 P-Value Wald

Test 0.444 0.491 0.984 0.992

Elasticidades de Corto Plazo para Trigo(Usando Eq3, Eq4 y Eq 5)

Page 23: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

(1) (2) Ln(Area

Sembrada Maiz)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Maiz)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Maiz)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Maiz) Ln Precio Maiz(t-1) 0.109 0.079 0.158 0.123

(1.84)* (1.09) (3.04)*** (1.97)* Ln Area Sembrada Maiz(t-1) 0.791 0.764 0.623 0.591

(9.41)*** (8.30)*** (7.65)*** (6.76)*** lnpgasoil1 -0.045 -0.052

(0.73) (1.03) Inflacion(t-1) -0.000 -0.000

(4.34)*** (4.37)*** Ln Precio Soja 1995-2005

Ln Precio Soja 1960-1994

Constant 1.171 1.482 2.321 2.695

(1.75)* (1.86)* (3.70)*** (3.72)*** Observations 45 45 44 44

R-squared 0.72 0.72 0.81 0.81 R-Cuadrado Adj 0.708 0.704 0.795 0.795

D-W 1.533 1.530 1.411 1.420 Elasticidad Maiz-Maiz 0.520 0.334 0.420 0.300

P-Value ADF test Residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Elasticidad Maiz-Soja 1960-1995 Elasticidad Maiz-Soja 1996-2005

P-Value Wald Test Soja

Elasticidades de Largo Plazo para Maiz

Page 24: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

(3) (4) Ln(Area

Sembrada Maiz)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Maiz)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Maiz)

Ln(Area Sembrada

Maiz) Ln Precio Maiz(t-1) 0.377 0.315 0.491 0.448

(3.95)*** (3.24)*** (7.54)*** (6.63)*** Ln Area Sembrada Maiz(t-1) 0.840 0.769 0.616 0.582

(10.28)*** (8.88)*** (9.78)*** (9.11)*** lnpgasoil1 -0.129 -0.078

(1.96)* (1.76)* Inflacion(t-1) -0.000 -0.000

(6.84)*** (6.64)*** Ln Precio Soja 1995-2005 -0.262 -0.247 -0.315 -0.304

(3.32)*** (3.24)*** (6.01)*** (5.92)*** Ln Precio Soja 1960-1994 -0.267 -0.261 -0.312 -0.307

(3.46)*** (3.51)*** (6.09)*** (6.15)*** Constant 0.958 1.640 2.531 2.876

(1.49) (2.31)** (5.26)*** (5.68)*** Observations 40 40 40 40

R-squared 0.80 0.82 0.92 0.92 R-Cuadrado Adj 0.778 0.794 0.904 0.909

D-W 1.763 1.863 1.880 1.924 Elasticidad Maiz-Maiz 2.358 2.358 1.278 1.073

P-Value ADF test Residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Elasticidad Maiz-Soja 1960-1995 -1.638 -1.638 -0.821 -0.728 Elasticidad Maiz-Soja 1996-2005 -1.673 -1.131 -0.813 -0.813

P-Value Wald Test Soja 0.432 0.084 0.522 0.642

Elasticidades de Largo Plazo para Maiz

Page 25: SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN.

(3) (4) DLn(Area

Sembrada Maiz) DLn(Area

Sembrada Maiz) DLn(Area

Sembrada Maiz) DLn(Area

Sembrada Maiz) D(Ln Precio Maiz(t-1))

0.319 0.352 0.395 0.417

(3.48)*** (3.19)*** (7.24)*** (7.00)*** ddumpsoja6095 -0.259 -0.256 -0.324 -0.322

(3.75)*** (3.48)*** (7.53)*** (7.11)*** ddumpsoja9506 -0.169 -0.212 -0.241 -0.267

(1.25) (1.37) (2.95)*** (3.02)*** dlnpgasoil1 -0.071 -0.025

(0.80) (0.47) ect1 -1.217 -1.118 -1.024 -0.970

(4.27)*** (3.28)*** (6.66)*** (5.91)*** D(Ln Inflacion(t-

1)) -0.000 -0.000

(9.46)*** (9.04)*** Constant 0.000 0.001 -0.000 0.000

(0.03) (0.05) (0.05) (0.01) Observations 39 39 39 39

R-squared 0.48 0.39 0.82 0.79 Adj-R2 0.401 0.314 0.781 0.753

P-Value Wald Test Soja

0.521 0.784 0.323 0.542

Elasticidades de Corto Plazo para Maiz(Usando Eq 3 y 4)