Strategies for achieving sustainable climate goals
ALPS International Symposium, Moving toward Sustainable Climate Change Actions, hosted by Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) at the Technology International Forum, Tokyo – 4 February 2014
Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Professor of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology
2013 #2 Nakicenovic
Two Faces of the Athropocene
Astronaut Sunita Williams
2013 #3 Nakicenovic
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Poun
ds (2
000
£)/ m
lum
en-h
ours
Gaslight
Kerosene - light
Electric - light
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Trill
ion
lum
en-h
ours
Electric - light
Gaslight
Price
Energy service
The Example of Lighting
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Trill
ion
lum
en-h
ours
Electric - light
Gaslight
United Kingdom
Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 2003
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2012 26 August
2012
NASA, 2012
2013 #5 Nakicenovic
2013 #6 Nakicenovic
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Major Challenges of Anthropocene The industrial revolution led to unprecedented
levels of affluence and production, but also inequity; The unintended consequences demonstrate
significant impacts on our social and natural environments transcending planetary boundaries; Overcoming these formidable global challenges
requires a fundamental transformation toward a sustainable future.
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Global CO2 Emissions
2013 #9 Nakicenovic
Global CO2 Emissions
2013 #10 Nakicenovic
Global CO2 Emissions
2012 #11 Nakicenovic
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
GEA, 2012
2012 #12 Nakicenovic
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
● Total Effort: 300 Authors; 200 Reviewers > 6 years >> 6m € and >> 100 p-years ● # of Reviewer comments: >6000 ● # of Language Editors:15 ● # of Copy Editors:15 ● # of Figures: ~ 650 ● # of Tables: ~ 380 ● # of References: >7000
● # of Pages (Published): ~1864 Pages ● Single volume of 5.5 kg
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Energy Access
Energy Security
Climate Change
The Key Energy Challenges
Air Pollution Health Impacts
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Source: Modi, 2011
Mobile Phones Charging
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Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013
Wood for Cooking
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Percentage of total population with electricity access
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
USA
Mexico
Brazil
India
South Africa
China
Baseline
Baseline
SE4All
SE4All
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia USA Rural
Percentage of rural population with electricity access
Electrification
Source: Pachauri et al, 2012
2013 #17 Nakicenovic 14
Present Atmosphere
~800 PgC
Preidustrial Atmosphere
~530 PgC
Coal ~ 10,000 PgC
Biomass ~430-460
PgC
N. Gas
~190–240 PgC
Oil ~180–280
PgC
Unconv. Oil ~300-400
PgC
Unconventional
Gas ~900-2900 PgC
Gas Hydrates ~28,000
PgC
Historcial Emissions ~500 PgC
~500 PgC
Cumulative Emissions for 2oC
Stabilzaiton
Carbon Storage Potential ~400-1500 PgC
Source: GEA, 2012
2013 #18 Nakicenovic Brine Treatment Plant – Conemaugh River
2013 #20 Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 Energy Goal
● Universal Access to Modern Energy
● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
2013 #21 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Mikrochip Kommerzielle
Luftfahrt
Fernseher
Vakuumröhre Ottomotor
Elektrischer Motor
Dampf-maschine
Nuklear- energie
Biomass
Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary Energy
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
2013 #22 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030
Nuclear phase-out (policy)
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Einsparungen
Andere E
Nuklear
Gas
Öl
Kohle
Biomasse
Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Biomass
Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil
Gas
~55% renewables by 2030
2013 #23 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Limited Intermittent REN
Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS
Global Primary Energy
lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
Biomass
Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
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1850 1900 1950 2000
Global CO2 emissions (PgC)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Global CO2 Emissions
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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Global CO2 emissions (PgC)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 IPCC Category I
RPC 8.5
RPC 6.0
RPC 4.5
RPC 2.6
GEA (SE4ALL)
Global CO2 Emissions
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 2.6
Peak by 2020
reductions of 35-75% by 2050
almost zero or negative in the long term
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Global Mean Surface Temperature
Source: IPCC WGI, 2013
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Cumulative Emissions & Temperature
Source: IPCC WGI, 2013
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Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
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“Learning” Through Scale
Learning Rates US Wind Turbines Source: Grubler/Wilson, in press, and ALPS-2012 Report
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1850 1950 1900 2000 2050
Source: After Granger Morgan,
But first, a reminder…
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Cumulative Experience and Learning: The Importance of “granularity
A
B
C
D
E
F
GH
IJ
KL
M
N
1
23
4
56
7
8
91011
12
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
1.E+00 1.E+03 1.E+06 1.E+09 1.E+12 1.E+15 1.E+18
Lear
ning
rate
(% c
ost c
hang
e pe
r do
ublin
g)
Cumulative # of units produced
A TransitorsB DRAMsC AutomobilesD Washing machinesE RefrigeratorsF DishwashersG Freezers (upright)H Freezers (chest)I DryersJ CalculatorsK CF light bulbsL A/C & heat pumpsM Air furnacesN Solar hot water heaters
1 PV modules2 Wind turbines3 Heat pumps4 Gas turbines5 Pulverized coal boilers6 Hypropower plants7 Nuclear reactors8 Ethanol9 Coal power plants
10 Coal power plants11 Gas pipelines12 Gas combined cycles
Mean of “granular” end use technologies: LR=20% CumProd= 10e9
Mean of “lumpy” supply technologies: LR=10% CumProd= 10e4
Source: Wilson et al, Nature CC, 2012
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Deep Offshore Ocean Wind
Source: NREL, 2011
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Deep Offshore Ocean Wind
Source: LA Wind, 2011
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Deep Ocean Pumped Storage ~ 30m sphere @ 2000m ≈ 60MWh
Source: Schmidt-Böcking, 2011; FAZ, 2011
2013 #35 Nakicenovic Source: Hasni, 2011
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Annual Energy Investments
Innovation RD&D
[billion US$2005]
Markets Formation
[billion US$2005]
Present Investments [billion US$2005]
Investment for SE4All
[billion US$2005]
2010 2010 2010 2010 - 2030 Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 260-370 Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200 260-410 Access < 1 < 1 ~ 9 40-60 Total > 50 < 150 1250 1780 - 2440
Global Energy Investments
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0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal P
olic
y Co
sts
(201
0-20
30)
Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)
Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
Nakicenovic #38 2013
Vision of a Sailing Railway Monorail using sails proposed by Henry R. Palmer in 1828
Source: Marshall, 1938
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