Download - Story Tellers: Hartford Crime Analysis

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Page 1: Story Tellers: Hartford Crime Analysis

Hartford Crime AnalysisTEAM: STORY TELLERS

ASHWIN CHADAGAPOOJA SANKHE

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Table of Contents

Project Objectives

Methodology

Insights

Scope

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Crime has patterns and can be analysed Predicting those patterns based on the geographical characteristics and time

will help us in segregating crime zones This makes people aware of the neighborhood

Data tells us about Police incidents in

Hartford area

A pattern can be identified for a region and for a time period

Forecasting the crime rate for

Hartford

Project Objective3

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Chose the publicly available ‘Police Record for Hartford’ data set Data available is from January 2005 till October 2015 Data consists of different categories of crimes across various neighbourhood

within Hartford Steps taken

Built a dynamic dashboard Built a model which forecasts the drug offenses

Methodology4

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Methodology

Converted API data from JSON format into table format by using tools available

in Alteryx US ZIP code data was mapped with the dynamic data to get the data in spatial

format Dynamic data from API was used to create live dashboard in Tableau For forecasting, used the subset(drug offenses) of the complete data Converted categorical variables into continuous to forecast

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Methodology6

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Methodology7

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Insights

From 2010, we see a drastic drop

in the drug offenses in Hartford From 2010, overall crime rate has

been reduced ‘Frog Hollow’ is the most impacted

region (Drug related crimes) Further insights can be interpreted

though live dashboard

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Methodology

Training Data – 2005 to 2013 Hold Out Data – Year 2014 Built 2 ARIMA models and 3 ETS

models Chose the model which gave us

the best RMSE & ME value Forecasted 3 month’s crime rate

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Insights10

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Insights11

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Scope

We can built models for different categories of crime Based on crime rate, we can predict the valuation of a property If we have the right infrastructure we can fetch the entire API data and will

be able to project it on live dashboard Based on the forecast, better resource management is possible

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Appendix

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References

https://public.tableau.com/profile/publish/Hartford_crime/Dashboard1#!/

publish-confirm https://data.hartford.gov/Public-Safety/Police-Incidents-01012005-to-

Current/889t-nwfu https://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/geo/shapefiles/index.php